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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 18 May 2023 18:46
by Dilbu
IMF DEADLOCK: PAKISTAN MAY TURN TO ‘FRIENDLY COUNTRIES FOR BAILOUT’
ISLAMABAD: Following the delay in the revival of $6.5 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout programme, Pakistan is now looking towards friendly countries for more funding, ARY News reported, quoting well-placed sources. The staff-level agreement between International Monetary Fund and Pakistan is being delayed from February 9.

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 18 May 2023 18:48
by Dilbu
$18bn penalty feared if Pakistan doesn’t complete Iran gas project
ISLAMABAD: The Public Accounts Committee expressed concern on Wednesday that Pakistan would have to pay a staggering amount of $18 billion in penalty if the country did not go ahead with the Iran-Pakistan Gas Pipeline project.

“The US should pay the penalty if it does not approve of Pakistan and Iran going ahead with the gas pipeline project. The USA will have to do away with double standards — being lenient with India in meeting its energy needs while punishing Pakistan for the same,” :mrgreen: said Public Accounts Committee (PAC) Chairman Noor Alam Khan.

The observation came after the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MoFA) informed the PAC through a letter that a meeting with the US ambassador would be arranged after his return from Washington.

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 19 May 2023 05:56
by A_Gupta
TFT:
China Mad At Pakistan Amid Economic Turmoil
With the country battling a critical financial crisis, Chinese authorities are 'much annoyed' at the 'mismanagement' in the country with regard to CPEC.
Now, diplomatic sources say Chinese authorities are “much annoyed” by the mismanagement in Pakistan.

“China rolled over loans with a guarantee of IMF compliance and renewal but this did not happen. Power plant’s payment is stuck in the billions. [Pakistani] government made assurances but nothing practically happened,” said a senior diplomat.

China, the diplomat added, is also worried about the political instability in Pakistan. “We hear that due to the continuous delays, considering future challenges, IMF is demanding a $8 billion loan arrangement, and this may go up with delays as more repayments are coming in. Inflation is up [as well], so the IMF also wants [some] real interest [from Pakistan].”

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 19 May 2023 06:07
by yensoy
^^^^ Huh, what were they expecting?

Chinese loans & terms to Pak are secret, IMF doesn't want Pak to divert development funds to pay off the Chinese, Pak doesn't want to comply with austerity measures and Chinese are the wronged party here? Serves them right, hope Pakis default on the Chinese loans. Our Raa agents should encourage this to happen.

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 21 May 2023 19:56
by A_Gupta
Paki link:
https://arifhabib.com/r/WhatifPakistandefaults.pdf

With details provided, even in the most optimistic scenario, Pak faces a 5 billion shortfall in 2024.

Image

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 23 May 2023 10:26
by Manish_P
H&D compliant headline - Pakistan rupee joins Sri Lankan rupee to sea-lock Indian rupee

Actual headline - Rupee hits all-time low against dollar amid demand-supply gap
The Pakistani currency experienced a sharp decline, dropping 1.31% or Rs 4 in a single day, reaching a new all-time low at Rs 305 against the US dollar on Monday. This downward trend has persisted over the past four working days, with the currency plummeting approximately 4% or Rs 12, as reported by the Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan (ECAP).

Individual sellers in Dubai’s hawala-hundi markets are currently offered Rs 310 against the US dollar, compared to Rs 305/$ in the domestic open market and Rs 286.55/$ in the interbank market.

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 23 May 2023 11:00
by Lisa
^^In the table above there is an entry labelled FDI. Really?

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 23 May 2023 11:07
by williams
Dilbu wrote:$18bn penalty feared if Pakistan doesn’t complete Iran gas project
ISLAMABAD: The Public Accounts Committee expressed concern on Wednesday that Pakistan would have to pay a staggering amount of $18 billion in penalty if the country did not go ahead with the Iran-Pakistan Gas Pipeline project.

“The US should pay the penalty if it does not approve of Pakistan and Iran going ahead with the gas pipeline project. The USA will have to do away with double standards — being lenient with India in meeting its energy needs while punishing Pakistan for the same,” :mrgreen: said Public Accounts Committee (PAC) Chairman Noor Alam Khan.

The observation came after the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MoFA) informed the PAC through a letter that a meeting with the US ambassador would be arranged after his return from Washington.
https://www.reuters.com/article/idINInd ... 3120080424
Ra agency should pay for it. they manipulated green Pakistan to sign up with Iran :rotfl:

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 23 May 2023 11:44
by williams
Lisa wrote:^^In the table above there is an entry labelled FDI. Really?
Yes investment from the Talibunnies to make Pakistan the South Asian hub for opium :D

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 23 May 2023 11:49
by chetak
williams wrote:
https://www.reuters.com/article/idINInd ... 3120080424
Ra agency should pay for it. they manipulated green Pakistan to sign up with Iran :rotfl:
From the very beginning, eyeraan fully intended for this pipeline to branch out and enter India where the eyeraanis saw a stable, regularly bill paying, and a very reliable customer base.

And the pakis knew this, and did not object because of the transit fees they would be earning but also the imagined leverage of cutting off India's gas supplies whenever the pakis felt the need

The pakis also saw the opportunity to steal from the gas going to India by illegally tapping the Indian branch of the pipeline

Sadly, madrasa "education" has very severe limitations

Now the pakis are, as usual, up the creek without a paddle....

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 23 May 2023 14:47
by Ardeshir
Alhamdulillah! PKR has shown imperialist Satan USA its place, and now commands 300 PKR per USD.

One dollar is now equal to 300 Pakistani rupees

Karachi: For the first time in Pakistan’s history, the US dollar on Thursday hit the 300 rupees barrier against the local currency in the interbank as well as the open market as the cash-strapped country faced political turmoil following the arrest of former prime minister Imran Khan.

The Pakistani rupee has taken a big hit since Tuesday as violent protests broke out in different parts of the country following the arrest of Khan in a corruption case.

The Karachi Stock Exchange and the currency market both showed clear signs of the unstable political situation in the country with Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) workers protesting in many parts of the country.

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 23 May 2023 15:02
by Aditya_V
to think that INR:PKR ratio was 1:1.5 at the time of Demonetization is now 1:3.5, yet people love INC

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 23 May 2023 15:15
by ritesh
Ardeshir wrote:Alhamdulillah! PKR has shown imperialist Satan USA its place, and now commands 300 PKR per USD.

One dollar is now equal to 300 Pakistani rupees

Karachi: For the first time in Pakistan’s history, the US dollar on Thursday hit the 300 rupees barrier against the local currency in the interbank as well as the open market as the cash-strapped country faced political turmoil following the arrest of former prime minister Imran Khan.

The Pakistani rupee has taken a big hit since Tuesday as violent protests broke out in different parts of the country following the arrest of Khan in a corruption case.

The Karachi Stock Exchange and the currency market both showed clear signs of the unstable political situation in the country with Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) workers protesting in many parts of the country.
Phata abduls might be really cursing their luck for creating this $hitty country afterall :rotfl:

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 23 May 2023 18:12
by jash_p
What is rate of 1 Dollar in Kabul?

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 23 May 2023 18:29
by vimal
Kaptaan did a Brian Lara on Pakistan economy

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 23 May 2023 19:40
by Dilbu
Pakistani Diplomatic Missions Abroad Ask Govt to Immediately Clear Pending Payments
A number of Pakistani diplomatic missions abroad have asked the Ministry of Information & Broadcasting to make pending payments to the Information Attaches without further delay. Sources told ProPakistani that the Ministry of Information and Broadcasting has been receiving letters from different Pakistan missions abroad for the provision of the Information Wing’s Funds pending for the last few months. There are mandatory payments such as rent, utility bills, salaries, social security of the local staff, and medical bills which cannot be delayed under the agreement signed by embassies.
They said that there can be serious consequences of the imposition of interest per day as well as the discontinuation of services if payment pertaining to rents, utilities and medical charges can be paid. Sources said that different embassies have been paying salaries and house rents from the allocated budget, but now it is not possible anymore as the monthly recoupments of the diplomatic wing have also become irregular.

They said that non-payment of salaries is causing serious difficulties for our families who have to pay for their children’s education, as education subsidies are not allowed in some countries and public schools are not free for foreigners.

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 24 May 2023 06:34
by A_Gupta
Lisa wrote:^^In the table above there is an entry labelled FDI. Really?
It is their "most optimistic scenario".

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 24 May 2023 07:45
by Thakur_B
Why is Google still showing 1:287 conversion rate?

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 24 May 2023 10:27
by putnanja
williams wrote:
https://www.reuters.com/article/idINInd ... 3120080424
Ra agency should pay for it. they manipulated green Pakistan to sign up with Iran :rotfl:
Can you check the url as it’s returning an error

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 24 May 2023 12:13
by g.sarkar
I too see $1.00 = Rs. 287. So, not yet a triple century.
However, some Pakistani reporters say it is between Rs. 306 to Rs. 311 or even 312.
See:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FNDzCLg ... =9DOTINDIA
Around 0.54 secs. I have a feeling that a lot of the dollars available in the open "markit" are being siphoned off to Afghanistan at flexible prices. Hence, the price is not fixed.
Gautam

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 24 May 2023 13:14
by williams
putnanja wrote:
williams wrote:
https://www.reuters.com/article/idINInd ... 3120080424
Ra agency should pay for it. they manipulated green Pakistan to sign up with Iran :rotfl:
Can you check the url as it’s returning an error
I don't know probably Reuters removed it after I shared it!? I still see Google returning the link. Anyways I was pointing out that Congis were very keen on agreeing to a pipeline when Pakis were happily terrorizing our populace, Thank God it did not work out.

https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 005_1.html

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 24 May 2023 13:55
by yensoy
g.sarkar wrote:I too see $1.00 = Rs. 287. So, not yet a triple century.
However, some Pakistani reporters say it is between Rs. 306 to Rs. 311 or even 312.
See:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FNDzCLg ... =9DOTINDIA
Around 0.54 secs. I have a feeling that a lot of the dollars available in the open "markit" are being siphoned off to Afghanistan at flexible prices. Hence, the price is not fixed.
Gautam
I follow this closely. The gap between official rate and open market has widened quite a bit, because the government's promise of letting the official rate be determined by the market is a Paki promise, i.e. worthless. So we are back to the large spread of around PKR 25+ between official and open market.

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 24 May 2023 14:24
by chetak
williams wrote:
putnanja wrote:
Can you check the url as it’s returning an error
I don't know probably Reuters removed it after I shared it!? I still see Google returning the link. Anyways I was pointing out that Congis were very keen on agreeing to a pipeline when Pakis were happily terrorizing our populace, Thank God it did not work out.

https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 005_1.html
famiglia doormat, fixer and bagman in bombay

his son has succeeded him, postmortem

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 25 May 2023 05:17
by A_Gupta
Question - how much has it slowed down - the inflow of funds into Pakistan for the Kashmir Jihad via zakat in Muslim countries - and how much is that contributing to Pakistan's foreign exchange crisis?

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 25 May 2023 15:37
by ricky_v
Pakistan pins hopes on Chinese help in debt crunch
ft article, archived
Two senior Pakistani officials said Beijing had committed to help the country meet two crucial debt repayments in June worth a total $2.3bn by providing fresh funds immediately after Pakistan makes the payments. The refinancing of the commercial loans worth $1.3bn and a Chinese government loan of $1bn would help Pakistan avert immediate default, the Pakistani officials said.
The Chinese government did not respond to a request for comment, but Beijing earlier this year already rolled over some loans to Pakistan. Chinese foreign minister Qin Gang also reiterated Beijing’s financial support for the country on a visit to Pakistan earlier this month.

The Pakistani officials said they expected to receive up to $400mn from foreign donors following pledges to finance recovery from devastating floods last year.
“Pakistan’s viability at this point depends on magnanimity of its friends,” he said. “Radical solutions have to be adopted to widen the tax net and reduce expenditure to impress the outside world.”

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 25 May 2023 16:18
by chetak
jash_p wrote:What is rate of 1 Dollar in Kabul?
with or without susai vest offer.. :mrgreen:

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 25 May 2023 16:23
by Manish_P
All those recitation of verses from the kitaab have gone in vain?

Yawn - Dar hints at end to IMF programme
Finance Minister Ishaq Dar on Wednesday hinted that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme may expire on June 30 without revival due to “restricted time” and apologised to businessmen for the hardships they were facing because of an extremely challenging economic situation.

“Our efforts are aimed at completing the second IMF programme in the country’s history, although time has been restricted and the programme is ending on June 30,” Dar said while speaking to a delegation of Rawalpindi, Islamabad and Sarhad Chambers of Commerce and Industry.

Since 1958, Pakistan has signed 22 IMF programmes but it failed to complete all barring the 2013-16 programme, thanks to nearly 18 waivers from the IMF.

The government has not yet come up with a credible alternative plan, which is creating panic in markets as the rupee is trading in the range of Rs 308 to Rs 313 to a dollar in the open market.

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 25 May 2023 17:24
by Tanaji
Pahile to aap ghabrana nahi as Boyz are playing well… can we dream of emulating Brian Lara and get to 400?

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 25 May 2023 17:44
by ritesh
What will be effect on porki economy of 2k note demo? Since that last demo happened, they have now slipped into coma, will this demo able to get the patient pronounced dead?

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 25 May 2023 17:52
by Manish_P
All Jihadistan needs is to somehow do another 9/11. Moonir has recently shown that he is more worthy than retd. Bajwa, now can he step up the game and do better than even Mushy.

Since Dar is now free from the IMF thing he can easily hold meetings with the Afghan birathers and work out a tempting revenue sharing agreement for the next WoT. He can even do antakshari of verses at these meetings since all attendees will be faithfuls.

It may seem very tough what with the US-Russian war, but the pakis keep saying they have a lot of jasba.

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 25 May 2023 18:16
by Dilbu
Economy shrinks from 6.1% to 0.3% under PDM govt’s watch
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s economic growth rate plummeted to 0.3% in the outgoing fiscal year due to severe restrictions imposed on the imports in an effort to avoid sovereign default, leaving the industrial sector crippled with spillovers on the services sector.

The 0.29% growth rate is the lowest increase in the national output in the past four years that exposes the mismanagement of the economy that is highly insufficient to meet the needs of 250 million people.

Despite severe floods, the agricultural sector still posted 1.6% growth, beating all forecasts of contraction due to a devastating impact on crops. The industrial sector contacted by 2.94%. But the services sector -- the single largest sector in the economy -- showed nominal growth of 0.9%.

The government has missed all sectoral targets, thanks to its economic mismanagement that also caused massive layoffs and contributed towards the 59-year-high inflation rate of 36.4%.

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 26 May 2023 08:27
by Manish_P
Gentlemen, place your bets (in USD only).. will it be 300, 310, 320,...

Yawn - Swelling rate gap stirs talk of big devaluation
The exchange rate difference between open and interbank markets on Wednesday swelled to Rs22 per US dollar, strengthening speculations about another big devaluation of the local currency.

However, the dollar remained almost unchanged in the interbank market (PKR gained two paise) on Wednesday, but the open market rate reached as high as Rs 312.

The difference between the two markets reached Rs22 per dollar, making it harder for the State Bank to maintain the current banking rate.

“A big reason for this wide difference is that importers have been allowed to arrange dollars for their imports. It virtually encouraged the grey market to stay strong with increasing dollar prices.

Now the grey market is offering the greenback at Rs 320-322 per dollar,” said Mr Paracha.

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 26 May 2023 09:53
by Deans
A_Gupta wrote:Question - how much has it slowed down - the inflow of funds into Pakistan for the Kashmir Jihad via zakat in Muslim countries - and how much is that contributing to Pakistan's foreign exchange crisis?
Official inflow (remittance, aid or FDI) has slowed, as seen from published figures.
Unofficial aid (Kashmir Jihad donation) would also have fallen, because if it hadn't, the US$ rate would not keep getting worse. They are also unhappy that Pak army agreed to a ceasefire on LOC.

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 26 May 2023 14:16
by Dilbu
Forex reserves fall by $119m to $4.19b
KARACHI: The foreign exchange reserves held by the central bank fell by 2.7% on a week-on-week basis to $4.19 billion, according to data released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Thursday.

On May 19, 2023, the SBP’s foreign currency reserves stood at $4,193 million, down by $119 million as compared to $4,311.9 million on May 12.

The central bank attributed the decrease in reserves to external debt repayments.

Overall, the liquid foreign currency reserves held by the country, including the net reserves held by banks other than the SBP, stood at $9,731.1 million. The net reserves held by banks amounted to $5,538.1 million.

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 26 May 2023 16:04
by mody
What is the actual net foreign reserves left with the pakis, after deducting the amount given as deposit by the Saudi's and UAE? The amounts given by these two fathers is supposed to just main the balance with SBP.

Is the 4 odd billion the actual net reserve or are the actual net reserves lower?

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 26 May 2023 17:45
by gakakkad
Manish_P wrote:Gentlemen, place your bets (in USD only).. will it be 300, 310, 320,...

Yawn - Swelling rate gap stirs talk of big devaluation
The exchange rate difference between open and interbank markets on Wednesday swelled to Rs22 per US dollar, strengthening speculations about another big devaluation of the local currency.

However, the dollar remained almost unchanged in the interbank market (PKR gained two paise) on Wednesday, but the open market rate reached as high as Rs 312.

The difference between the two markets reached Rs22 per dollar, making it harder for the State Bank to maintain the current banking rate.

“A big reason for this wide difference is that importers have been allowed to arrange dollars for their imports. It virtually encouraged the grey market to stay strong with increasing dollar prices.

Now the grey market is offering the greenback at Rs 320-322 per dollar,” said Mr Paracha.
I am betting 500 end of the year . Basing it on the fact that there GDP has not had any real growth for the last 5-7 years . And must have infact contracted . I don't believe there economy is more than 180-200 billion . As a comparator Irans GDP is 350 billion. I don't believe pakis to have an output anywhere near that .

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 26 May 2023 19:15
by Manish_P
^ end of the year i would put it on 365. Plus or minus 5.

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 26 May 2023 21:35
by Vips
gakakkad wrote: I don't believe there economy is more than 180-200 billion.
Per the latest digital census findings Porki population has crossed 25 Crores. So the per capita GDP is competing with the sub-sahara region :lol:

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 27 May 2023 18:32
by A_Gupta
I did not realize that China banega Pakistan!
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/ ... t-problem/

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 27 May 2023 23:21
by yensoy
A_Gupta wrote:I did not realize that China banega Pakistan!
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/ ... t-problem/
China has been a slow moving train wreck (or an aircraft carrier collision) for about 15 years in the making. All the opulence and grandeur you see in China comes at a massive cost. Chinese have also been willingly subsidizing production for the world to consume in order to grow their surpluses, this is being paid for by the sweat and labour of ordinary Chinese citizens. The bet was that China would grow to be so bloody awesome when it got done with its massive socio-economic experiment, make its way to the top of the world, and that all its debts will vanish and prosperity will spread in the land. The delusion was very alluring and on the surface seemed to be working just fine, but all good things must come to an end, including China's unbridled expansion.

China will end up as a sputtering middle income country with a high Gini coefficient (income disparity) for decades to come. The silent sufferers will be Chinese workers and citizens who cannot imagine a world outside a patriarchal one Party system which in turn knows exactly how much pressure it can apply to its people to maximize their productivity. The youth will be disillusioned and lead a demographic collapse. Whoever can leave will leave. Even better, like Pakistan (the subject of this thread), many of those who take a new citizenship will continue to maintain their strong connections with China because that is the source of their wealth.

The best case scenario is if the Party or a new leadership returns to its people the fruits of their labour in the form of a welfare state with good health care, pensions & social safety nets, and makes whole their losses on speculative housing. It will be a huge expense and an entirely different way of thinking, but has the potential to nudge them beyond middle-income. (expense wise it is like what West Germany undertook while taking over East Germany including 1:1 parity with East German D-mark, but scaled up 10x-100x)

Downside is that Chinese manufacturing will no longer be cheap, and exports will drop like a rock - which may be a good thing for the world. Also they will have to severely curtail military expenditure. People will demand for more rights, which can be granted but managed tightly like Singapore or Korea/Taiwan in the early days. But fear of the unknown is big in the Party, there will be a lot of individual losers whose vested interests will collapse, so this is unlikely to happen.