Re: India-Russia: News & Analysis
Posted: 02 May 2009 11:31
Scowcroft Likes Prospects for Better Ties to Russia, China
By GERALD F. SEIB
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124112759652674705.html
Brent Scowcroft, an éminence grise of U.S. foreign policy, has watched superpower relations up close through seven presidencies, and here's some good news: He mostly likes the potential he sees in relations with both Russia and China right now.
In the early stages of the Obama presidency, Mr. Scowcroft thinks the table is set for productive relations with both nations, which, even in a much-changed world, remain the most powerful forces with which Washington must contend.
Promoting world economic cooperation and decreasing nuclear weapons are just two priorities that signify the importance of the U.S. maintaining relationships with Russia and China, WSJ's Washington Executive Editor Jerry Seib says.
The combination of new leaders in Russia and the U.S., and a willingness on both sides to think anew about nuclear strategy, could significantly upgrade ties between Washington and Moscow, Mr. Scowcroft says. And the global economic crisis, if handled right, actually has the potential to improve U.S.-China cooperation.
Positive outcomes are hardly guaranteed on either front, of course. But in any case, the stakes are enormous, for those two countries have the greatest ability to affect the broader national-security strategy for good or ill. It may be that only solid U.S.-Russian cooperation can stop Iran from moving toward nuclear weapons, for instance. Meantime, the U.S.-Chinese economic relationship is probably the most important in the world, and China may be able to help, at least a little, in easing dangerous situations in North Korea and Pakistan.
Nobody has seen these pivotal relationships from up close longer than Mr. Scowcroft. Veteran of the Nixon White House, national security adviser to both Presidents Gerald Ford and George H.W. Bush, and current confidant to foreign-policy thinkers of both parties, he may be the closest thing to a personification of the foreign-policy establishment. One of his closest colleagues, Robert Gates, serves as defense secretary for President Barack Obama, and White House aides speak respectfully of Mr. Scowcroft's views.
[Brent Scowcroft]
Brent Scowcroft
So a chat in his office, two blocks from the White House, is a good way to size up the state of superpower ties.
First, Russia:
"On Russia, we have tended, since the end of the Cold War, to benign neglect, except when we need them for some particular thing," Mr. Scowcroft says. That has exacerbated feelings of bitterness in Moscow: "I think we have severely underestimated the humiliation that Russia and Russians felt at the demise of their position in the world."
Many of those sentiments were embodied by former President Vladimir Putin, now prime minister. But now, with the arrival of new President Dmitry Medvedev, Mr. Scowcroft says, "we have an opportunity to turn that around, and it is in the area of nuclear business."
That's precisely the opportunity Messrs. Obama and Medvedev sought to pursue when they agreed recently to focus on nuclear-arms reductions. The U.S. and Russia still own 95% of the nuclear weapons in the world, Mr. Scowcroft notes, and the U.S. ought to start talking with Russia "as equals" about reducing the threats from nuclear arms and spreading safe nuclear power.
U.S.-Russian cooperation in this area also offers the best-remaining chance to deal with the looming Iranian nuclear danger, Mr. Scowcroft says: "The only chance to dissuade Iran is if the U.S. and Russia are linked together on Iran."
Mr. Scowcroft sees a deal to be made: If the Russians really help stop the Iranian nuclear-arms program, the U.S. could drop its plans for a European-based missile-defense system that so troubles Moscow. The U.S., he notes, has tried to reassure Russia that deployment of the missile-defense system is designed to thwart threats such as Iran's, not to confront Russia. If Iran is stopped, "we don't need that deployment."
On to China:
"Right now, I feel good about China," says Mr. Scowcroft, who has navigated much of the relationship with Beijing over the past generation. The transition from the George W. Bush to Barack Obama administrations has been smooth on this front, he says. Now, "the financial crisis has the potential to work two ways: It can either bring us closer together or split us apart."
Mr. Scowcroft sees more potential for the former so far. The Chinese have stepped up with an economic-stimulus plan that "has ours beat substantially, as near as I can tell, which is to say, when they decide to spend money, it gets spent the next day."
The Chinese have shown a willingness to undertake "huge" infrastructure spending, with benefits rippling to the U.S. On the American side, the Obama administration's recent decision, in a Treasury Department report, not to label China as a nation that manipulates its currency to gain economic advantage was "a clear political statement."
"I don't see anything on the horizon that leads me to think inevitable hostility has to be the result," he says.
Which is good, because much as Russia can provide help stopping Iran's nuclear program, China has the best shot at altering North Korea's move down the nuclear-weapons path. There are limits, Mr. Scowcroft notes, but "even if the Chinese can't control North Korea, they have more influence."
Similarly, Mr. Scowcroft notes, Pakistan has traditionally tried to rely on two nations, the U.S. and China. It may be beyond the power of either to halt Pakistan's current slide toward turbulence at the hands of Islamic militants, but they stand a better chance working together than apart.
Write to Gerald F. Seib at [email protected]