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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 01 Oct 2012 05:14
by Philip
US secret intel ops affected by the Benghazi tragedy.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... ation.html
US consulate attack in Benghazi 'disrupted major intelligence operation’
The attack on the American consulate in Benghazi in which the ambassador to Libya was killed seriously disrupted a major intelligence operation based there, according to briefings by Washington officials.
The burnt out interior of a room inside the US consulate, Benghazi.
Image 1 of 3
The burnt out interior of a room inside the US consulate, Benghazi. Photo: Esam Omran Al-Fetori/Reuters
Richard Spencer

By Richard Spencer, Benghazi

24 Sep 2012

A large number of Americans whose existence was unknown to Libyan leaders were evacuated from Benghazi even as fighting around the compound continued.

The new briefings admit they were involved in CIA or other intelligence operations targeting Islamist activity in the east of the country, as well as securing some of the more dangerous weapons with which the country is infested.

The revelations are being used by Islamist leaders, currently on the defensive after the attack and a subsequent backlash by secular forces which saw some of their bases stormed over the weekend, as justification for their anti-American rhetoric.

Ismail Sallabi, one of the most powerful Islamists in the country, told The Daily Telegraph on Monday he also objected to the American drones that have been circling Benghazi since the attack on the consulate.

“If the CIA were really there I regard that as an invasion of Libyan sovereignty, like the aeroplanes,” he said.
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“Of course it would be different if it had the agreement of the Libyan government and was declared – but we don’t want these agreements to be under the table.”

As the attack on the consulate was under way, around 30 Americans were driven at high speed to an accommodation block – sometimes referred to as a “safe house” though it was no better protected than the consulate itself – but came under renewed attack there.

They were then taken to the airport and flown directly to Tripoli and out of the country. According to the New York Times, they included at least 12 CIA agents who are now “scattered across Europe and the United States” – something which is hindering the FBI investigation into the killing of the ambassador, Chris Stevens, and three other staff.

The paper said the CIA team had been playing a “crucial role in conducting surveillance and collecting information on an array of armed militant groups”. It quoted an official as saying its enforced withdrawal was a “catastrophic intelligence loss”.

Similar reports in the Wall Street Journal said that the Libyan government had only been informed of the extent of the intelligence operation after the attack.

The size of the US presence has led to speculation that Islamists targeted by the operation, including Ansar al-Sharia, a militant group, and al-Qaeda, had staged a pre-emptive attack. Washington has backed away from its original insistence that the assault was a protest that got out of hand and now describes it as a terrorist incident.

Mr Sallabi, who used to lead one of Libya’s biggest revolutionary militias, the February 17 brigade, said he had offered protection to the US ambassador, and had warned him that the city was becoming dangerous.

He is now a senior commander with the Rafallah al-Sehati militia, whose base was stormed after those of Ansar al-Sharia in a wave of anti-Islamist protests in Benghazi in Friday night.

He is now in delicate negotiations with the authorities and the army.

His men have arrested 113 people he said were involved in the attack, including soldiers, but at the same time stressed his loyalty to the newly elected parliament in Tripoli.

He said he accepted a decision announced on Monday to put army officers in charge of “approved” Islamist militias like his own to tie them more closely to the official military.

“We take our orders from the chief of staff,” he said. “My brigade is one of the closest of all the militias to the parliament.”

But he said he regretted the attacks on Ansar al-Sharia, described as an “illegitimate militia” and its subsequent disbandment. He said his men had been on the verge of a major operation to arrest those it believed responsible for the attack on the consulate, but following the attack on his base that would not now happen.

“The danger is now that the members of Ansar al-Sharia will go into the shadows,” he warned.

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 01 Oct 2012 09:35
by Pranav
Philip wrote:US secret intel ops affected by the Benghazi tragedy.
Benghazi is from where a large number of fighters are shipped to Syria.

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 01 Oct 2012 09:53
by Hari Seldon
KLNMurthy wrote:Anyway, if, despite the above problems, it is still somehow the case that "democratic Sunni" MB in Egypt somehow getting into bed with "democratic Shia" Iran, does it mean that there is some sort of drive in West Asia for Sunni-Shia rapprochement? No such drive is there in TSP, quite the opposite, is that because the TSP jihadi-boys are nothing more than the rent-boys of Saudi?

Can we have some informed analysis / opinion about this?
I dunno where shias have been mentioned anywhere in the article. Anyway, I'm not going to claim enough gyan to sprout "informed analysis".

However, somethings Goldman says make eminent sense to me. The Palestinians and (to a lesser extent) the Egyptians don;t have the resources to support their current population levels and living standards - much of which is financed from outside the region. The entitlement mentality that has so far fed these societies into becoming what they are currently is paki-like.
Owing to severe austerity and what not conditions in the eurozone and unkil's hesitations and tribulations of its own, we have a situ wherein the coffers are running dry and true blue. So, entitlement expectations apart, not much (or at least not enough) will flow into the region to support their current living standards. The consequences are plain. I expect food riots to erupt in various places blessed by the arap spring. With worse to follow. And yup, I won't shed any tears for the affected. Its time, islamists learn the hard way that their exploding populations have consequences. And Turkish + GCC hypocrisy will also be exposed this time big time when its promised aid and all that doesn't arrive. Without western benevolence, the region is set for turmoil. Good.

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 01 Oct 2012 15:11
by shyamd
@TelegraphNews: Bashar al-Assad 'betrayed Col Gaddafi to save his Syrian regime' http://t.co/QXfc2OZJ

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 01 Oct 2012 16:43
by member_20292
What are Indian interests in the WANA region? Not much apart from oil supply and expat Indians?

In the future...India is a big brother or what?

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 01 Oct 2012 17:55
by shyamd
Syrian rebels' backers block arms cache until bickering factions unite
KIM SENGUPTA MONDAY 01 OCTOBER 2012

Stockpiles of arms, including anti-aircraft and anti-tank missiles, are being held in Turkey for use by rebels in Syria's civil war, but their distribution is being held up because of disunity and feuding between the different groups of fighters, The Independent has learned.

In high-level discussions, Qatari and Turkish suppliers told opposition representatives that heavy weapons would not be made available until the various factions agreed to form a coherent command structure.

After 18 months of fighting and an estimated 30,000 people dead, rebel fighters are convinced that the time for a negotiated end to the conflict is over. But they have been forced back from many areas by tanks, artillery and air strikes. The regime, meanwhile, has not faced any significant shortage of supplies, with US officials claiming that daily flights bearing arms are coming in from President Bashar al-Assad's ally, Iran.

One attempt to set up an arms supply chain took place in the Turkish capital, Ankara, in early August. Opposition representatives were seeking weapons for Aleppo where the regime forces were beginning to push forward and recapture areas held by the rebels. According to those present, the Turks were acting as facilitators while the Qataris controlled the flow of material. Both the Qataris and Turks are said to have stressed to the opposition emissaries that the revolutionaries in the main cities, starting with Aleppo, needed to form structured military councils and come up with co-ordinated operational plans.

"Instead of getting operational plans and what would be required to implement them, we were getting shopping lists from individual khatibas (battalions)," said a Turkish organiser of supplies of arms and communications equipment. "If you give to one khatiba, others get annoyed and ask why they are being left out."

It has been claimed during the Syrian uprising that a number of Gulf states, especially the Qataris and Saudis, have been funnelling arms and money to hard-line Islamist groups, favouring them over more moderate factions. The moderate militias have been increasingly alarmed at the emergence of extremist groups, many with large numbers of foreign fighters in their ranks. Their arrival had coincided with more attacks against minorities. There has been a marked rise in churches being targeted and Christian refugees fleeing across the border.

But the Qataris are said to have maintained that one reason for the request to form military councils was to ensure a more equitable distribution of weapons. They also stressed that heavier-calibre weapons needed to be returned when hostilities ended.

"They were very clear that we needed to get organised and present a proper plan," said one opposition leader present at the talks, who gave the nom-de-guerre, Abu Mohsin.

"The Qataris were concerned because they had not been able to get back a lot they gave to the Libyan [rebels] and they did not want the same situation to happen in Syria.

"The Qataris said that the Americans were very worried about this happening again."

The rebels have not, as yet, put in place the organisation demanded by the Qataris and Turks.


"We have tried to form the military councils as they wanted, but there some difficulties. There are too many people who have made themselves commanders and they don't want to give up power" said Abu Mohsin.

One reason for the failure to form a unified command in Aleppo was the refusal of two militia commanders – Haji Mari and Abu Juma – to give up their autonomy. The two men and their followers discouraged other rebel brigades from joining in their armed uprisings until an offensive by the regime made the need for reinforcements imperative.

Co-operation between the brigades was limited in Aleppo, even during the fiercest fighting. One particularly unco-operative faction was the Islamist Jubhat al-Nusra brigade which is linked to al-Qa'ida. A senior Al-Nusra operative, Abu Mohammed al-Shami al-Absi, disappeared earlier this month. His body was found at Samada near the Turkish border a few days later, with fellow rebels believed to be responsible for his execution.

Mr Al-Absi's group has accused the Al-Farouq brigade of Homs of carrying out the killing. The group, which has publicly stated its opposition to al-Qa'ida's involvement in the revolution, denies responsibility. But one of its officers, Amar Mohammed Abaddullah, stressed: "We are fighting for Syria to be a free country, a democracy where all our people, Muslims and Christians, have a part to play. Obviously we cannot work with those who want to impose their own [version of an] Islamist state and act against those who disagree with them."
Even Gulf military's need external consultants to help them organise themselves - its a dead end imo.

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 01 Oct 2012 21:41
by ramana
Pranav wrote:
Philip wrote:US secret intel ops affected by the Benghazi tragedy.
Benghazi is from where a large number of fighters are shipped to Syria.

Could be one reason for the attack on the consulate. Some deal that went sour.

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 01 Oct 2012 23:10
by RoyG
shyamd wrote:Eklavya - read the article - the key bit is the security agreement and what it actually states not the defence pact which is an element of the relationship.

RoyG - Any enemy - Iran or Iraq, but even if they think we will help allows for relationship to improve and whether we help or not is a different matter and will be decided when it happens.
Even in GW1, they asked what makes us want to trust the US? The US could cut a deal with saddam they were afraid of so they bought in extra troops from other countries. They will get assurances despite all the paper and billions of oil deals.

In Bahrain last year for example the US asked Saudi to stop their troops from being sent and also Mubarak was sold out in their eyes. KSA was angry about it. They don't trust the US fully - the US is backing the MB against the rulers there for example
I'm having a little difficulty understanding your thought process. India's assistance to GCC countries will remain minuscule in comparison to the US. This will always be the case because we lack hard power projection and our currency is not directly tied to oil pricing. A coalition was put together in GW1 to aid the US offensive to prevent a very destabilizing situation from getting worse. It's not because of some trust deficit. Assurances are given because of all the paper and billions of oil deals. There will always be disagreements between KSA and the US. However, it doesn't alter the nature of the relationship in any significant way. They price and purchase securities, the US protects.

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 01 Oct 2012 23:15
by nakul
^^^

The US is the top dog and will continue to do so for the near future. We have to keep our options open after that to prevent some other power (read China) to make inroads into it. Pakistan has already become a rentier for anyone (look at them jumping up & down for Putin) after relations turned sour. If such a thing happens in West Asia, India should be the one to fill the vacuum, not France, China or Russia. As long as US remains, the present script will continue to play itself out. The idea is to keep the Indian Ocean Indian.

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 02 Oct 2012 00:04
by shyamd
RoyG

US will be always the number one security provider due to economics. Ours is growing. But our power projection and our capabilities are improving and if US doesn't help, India and other regional powers have the capabilities to intervene - that's the point. Even recently key strategists and advisors in the Gulf said India alone has the capabilities to protect the straits (assuming they did their research of course).

India may not currently have the capabilities to save the day for them or fight their wars but we can help in certain areas (significantly). But again whether we do or not is another matter in itself

There are technical reasons too for why India can help (they wanted Egyptian troops on the streets releasing the RSLF to actually fight in the event of war). TSPAF in air, naval duties and so on.

Re- coalition trust deficit - read Bandars biography and His and the kings comments/letters on that subject. And also the thought process about getting the US on board. Ive been fortunate to speak to serving military officers on the subject too.
Ask yourself one question - can they cut a deal with an invader in exchange of leaving the oil gas facilities alone and retaining ownership etc? Answer is Yes
Our presence there is minimal now but a growing one and it's one to watch for the long run.


--------------------------
@zaidbenjamin: #BREAKING: Sources in Libyan PM office tell state news agency that Moustafa Abou Shagour could announce his government formation tomorrow

Paving the way for MB to infiltrate the army and take control of state institutions

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 02 Oct 2012 02:16
by JE Menon
It's not an either or situation. It's not either the Americans or the Indians. More likely it will be both. The Americans want us to chip in and are softening the GCC regimes to the necessity of being nice to the Indians (not that they need too much persuasion, given that they ship over $73 bn worth of goods to India annually). But it's not easy either given entrenched mentalities among the older generation in the Gulf. It is likely to be both the Americans and Indians jointly shouldering burdens if the shite really hits the fan in this part of the world. Our capacity to help is not miniscule. We do not want a change in the status quo in this area for the foreseeable future unless that change is of a kind that does not disrupt or endanger our economic interests.

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 02 Oct 2012 02:51
by devesh
JEM ji,

what is the plan for the Islamic networks? the theologians, and supported "charity" and funding framework? how is that angle intended to be handled?

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 02 Oct 2012 03:15
by JE Menon
Maybe we will use them... I don't know.

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 02 Oct 2012 03:18
by eklavya
JE Menon wrote:It is likely to be both the Americans and Indians jointly shouldering burdens if the shite really hits the fan in this part of the world. Our capacity to help is not miniscule. We do not want a change in the status quo in this area for the foreseeable future unless that change is of a kind that does not disrupt or endanger our economic interests.
I can't imagine any scenario in which India will fight to protect the GCC regimes from whatever shite they find themselves in. KSA and Qatar are playing with fire in Syria. It it burns them, its their problem, not ours.

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 02 Oct 2012 03:26
by devesh
JE Menon wrote:Maybe we will use them... I don't know.
how exactly do we use them? and when you say "we", which section of the current ruling disposition are we talking about? do we know, based on their past actions, any of the tactics that are going to be deployed for the overall objective of "using them"?

these are genuine questions for all. not just for JEM ji. can we actually analyze if there are genuine ways in which we can use the Islamic Institutional Architecture to achieve our goals?

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 02 Oct 2012 03:44
by RoyG
shyamd wrote:RoyG

US will be always the number one security provider due to economics. Ours is growing. But our power projection and our capabilities are improving and if US doesn't help, India and other regional powers have the capabilities to intervene - that's the point. Even recently key strategists and advisors in the Gulf said India alone has the capabilities to protect the straits (assuming they did their research of course).

India may not currently have the capabilities to save the day for them or fight their wars but we can help in certain areas (significantly). But again whether we do or not is another matter in itself

There are technical reasons too for why India can help (they wanted Egyptian troops on the streets releasing the RSLF to actually fight in the event of war). TSPAF in air, naval duties and so on.

Re- coalition trust deficit - read Bandars biography and His and the kings comments/letters on that subject. And also the thought process about getting the US on board. Ive been fortunate to speak to serving military officers on the subject too.
Ask yourself one question - can they cut a deal with an invader in exchange of leaving the oil gas facilities alone and retaining ownership etc? Answer is Yes
Our presence there is minimal now but a growing one and it's one to watch for the long run.


--------------------------
@zaidbenjamin: #BREAKING: Sources in Libyan PM office tell state news agency that Moustafa Abou Shagour could announce his government formation tomorrow

Paving the way for MB to infiltrate the army and take control of state institutions
Which areas can we help them in (significantly)? Again, there may be disagreements and suspicions but it's not enough to significantly alter the relationship. I recommend you read "The Hidden Hand of American Hegemony" by David E Spiro.

http://books.google.co.uk/books/about/T ... vWgRS_itIC

Moreover, I don't understand the example you provided and why is the answer "yes". If the countries are pricing oil in dollars why would it be in the interest of the US to not honor its end of the agreement which is to protect them? It would destroy American credibility.

Our role presently is minuscule in the military sense but could be scaled up. Economically as JEM mentioned is a different matter.

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 02 Oct 2012 10:48
by abhischekcc
Pranav wrote:
Philip wrote:US secret intel ops affected by the Benghazi tragedy.
Benghazi is from where a large number of fighters are shipped to Syria.
So the Benghazi attack could have been conducted by Syria or its backers - Iran / Russia?

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 02 Oct 2012 11:01
by abhischekcc
nakul wrote:^^^

The US is the top dog and will continue to do so for the near future. We have to keep our options open after that to prevent some other power (read China) to make inroads into it. Pakistan has already become a rentier for anyone (look at them jumping up & down for Putin) after relations turned sour. If such a thing happens in West Asia, India should be the one to fill the vacuum, not France, China or Russia. As long as US remains, the present script will continue to play itself out. The idea is to keep the Indian Ocean Indian.
US power is not unlimited. Look at their refusal to get involved in Syria. They did not want to get involved in Libya also, but Obama was outmaneuvered by Hillary.

Today, the US cannot hold down two major fronts.

There is an additional danger for India if Syria flares up and US and Russia are at loggerheads militarily. China always attacks India when these two countries are in a military confrontation - 1962 (Bay of pigs), attacks on Indian outposts during Kargil war (Yugoslavia bombing going on).

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 02 Oct 2012 13:11
by nakul
abhischekcc wrote: US power is not unlimited. Look at their refusal to get involved in Syria. They did not want to get involved in Libya also, but Obama was outmaneuvered by Hillary.

Today, the US cannot hold down two major fronts.

There is an additional danger for India if Syria flares up and US and Russia are at loggerheads militarily. China always attacks India when these two countries are in a military confrontation - 1962 (Bay of pigs), attacks on Indian outposts during Kargil war (Yugoslavia bombing going on).
That is all the reason to get involved. Like pakistanis, these guys also rely on their 'friends'. To keep things in check, we need to remain buddy buddy with them. WIth the decline of the US becoming real, they need someone else to fill the gap. Unless we make the first move, someone else might fill the gap. That is why the current engagements are low key. It is preparing ground work. If the US pulls out, it would leave us as the only power to fill the gap.

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 02 Oct 2012 18:04
by shyamd
#Assad tours Aleppo, orders more troops into battle http://t.co/yKnrh4yP

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 03 Oct 2012 20:06
by shyamd
Turkey responds by firing mortars into Syria after Syrian regime fired mortars killing a mother and 4 children on the border today. Turkish TV channels continuing to discuss and focus on the shelling (building public opinion up?).

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 03 Oct 2012 20:41
by Hari Seldon
^^^I do hope the puffed up Turks blunder into a costly war and it costs them dearly. The sheer self-righteousness oozing outta every pore of the Erdogan wannabees nauseates me. This oh-so-reasonable veneer enveloping a hard jeehardy core is the real foe, I feel. Sooner its ripped the better. Just like the sooner the more-greens take over isloo from the khakis, the better for India and the world (blinkers would be off by then, at least).

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 03 Oct 2012 20:47
by pentaiah
Totally agree Hari Saar ji
I don't understand this playing at the edges if Assad is so weakened by defections no money no followers etc.
When will the Turkey shooting begin, my popcorn is still waiting to be liberated...

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 03 Oct 2012 21:17
by RoyG
http://orbat.com/
Wednesday 0230 GMT October 3, 2012

· Afghanistan an innocuous article in the New York Times tells the US and the world that the US knows it has completely failed in Afghanistan. http://t.co/N7HPqzU1 Editor was about the last person to learn US was failing. It took him until 2008 to figure this out. Admitting to this to People In The Know earned Editor considerable derision along the lines “Now you find out?” Truthfully, Editor deserves the derision, because people WERE telling him the US was failing, but he refused to listen. He could not believe US Government would blandly lie to its people, not after the transparency of First Gulf, and the fiasco with the public trust in Second Indochina.

· It is said two things led to the end of trust Americans have traditionally reposed in the US Government. One was the assassination of President Kennedy; the other was the Vietnam War. Editor is still not sure how the first played into the end of trust, but he is only restating something that was said many, many times in the 1960s and 1970s. Vietnam as a corroding factor in the trust thing is obvious. Government on Monday would announce we’re beating the Reds, on Friday it would say its sending another 50,000 troops. After committing 550,000+ troops (actually 750,000 when you count the Navy, airpower based outside Vietnam, and air force units supporting the logistical effort), one day the country wakes up to the news that General Westmoreland is asking for 2250,000 more troops. Total freakout. Total, total freakout.

· Anyhows, what Editor did not realize is that around 2005 the Taliban had rebuilt from its losses consequent on the US invasion of Afghanistan, and slowly but surely Taliban steps up its activity. By 2008 it has reached the stage US has to up forces by 50%. This was an “Uh Oh” moment for Editor. Bright feller that he is, he said: “Something smells in the Kingdom of Denmark”. Probing deeper, it emerged the Taliban controlled 50% of Afghanistan by day, 80% by night. Editor, being the genius he is, goes “Yo, amigo, looks like we’re actually losing”. Now he starts looking more deeply at the situation, instead of ignoring it and relying on other blogs, which give the US viewpoint 100%. Then he realizes (a) US has no strategy to win; (b) US is massively failing to train the Afghans. Anything wrong that can be done, the US is doing.

· Editor at this point cannot emotionally handle it anymore, because the American failures are so massive and so total, that one either ignores the situation or one faces the reality that this country’s national security establishment and higher military leader is, like, totally incompetent. The consequences of this are so immense, that and aside from the occasional guerilla raid on conventional wisdom, Editor basically goes “La la la, I can’t hear you.”

· Okay, so now Editor has done the mea culpa thing, lets come back to the NY Times article. It says that the Americans now admit that we cannot bring the Taliban to the negotiating table, and that it’s up to the Afghans to work this out. Moreover, the article also says that until we leave in 2014, there will be no major progress in negotiations. And even more abjectly, the article says the americans will have to give Pakistan a major seat at the table. This is as clear an admission of defeat as you are getting from American leaders today.

· Editor has been saying, irregularly, moodily, and off-handedly that if there are Afghan-Taliban negotiations, they will solely be a Taliban deception to prepare its takeover. This means there will be NO real negotiations; the game is lost, and the leadership knows it.

· So: let’s repeat what we’ve said before. Taliban will whack the Afghan Army with greater ease than you whack the weeds in your garden because the Afghan Army’s fighting potential is about as close to zero as one can get. The only thing propping up the mockery of an Afghan Army is the US. With combat units gone, no amount of advisors is going to save the bacon, or however that expression goes. Once the US gets out of the way, the Pakistan Army is going to come right back into Afghanistan, and just as it did 1994-96, it is going to beat the daylights out of the Afghans.


· Now: there will this time be a major difference. Last time the world was basically keeping out of the dreadful civil war that erupted after the Soviet withdrawal of 1989 between the warlords, followed by the rise of the Taliban, who at that time were only an extension of the Pakistan Army. Toward the end of the rise of the Taliban, people like India and Russia were aiding anti-Pushtoon Afghans. At the time of the US invasion in 2001, the Northern Alliance had 15% of the country, Taliban had 85% (in so far as anyone can actually have control over Afghanistan – another question for another time). This time, however, India, Russia, and even the US are going to aid the west and north Afghan who are anti-Taliban (and anti Pushtoon). The core of new opposition army will come from the split-up Afghan Arm. With foreign assistance, there will be no scope for Pakistan to take over all of Afghanistan; and its not clear if Islamabad wants to.

· We don’t want to paint a rosy picture of Pakistan’s gains because there are going to be all sorts of problems for Pakistan this time as opposed to 1996-2001. Among these problems is that the Taliban have developed their own identity, and plus you have a bunch of Taliban who are anti-Pakistan. Again, this is another discussion for another time.

· The only question we should be asking is: are any American generals, bureaucrats, Administration officials, and media going to be held responsible for America’s defeat? Are there going to be inquiries, trials, and punishments? Of course not, you silly person. You see, America works on two tracks. There is you and me, the peasants, and there are the elite. When us peasants mess up, the elite makes darn sure we suffer the consequences. When the elite mess up, they get better jobs and after a decent interval return to make another, even bigger mess.


The only way this is going to change if we, the peasants, get out the pitchforks and the flaming torches and the ropes, and go after the elite. In this struggle, please do not look to the Editor. He did his struggle thing in India for 20-years. It would be wrong to say he achieved nothing. He did achieve 0.00000000000000000001 of what he set out to achieve. After 22-years in America, and approaching 70, Editor is very, very tired. This country can make you very successful, but if you don’t make into that 1%, or you aren’t born into it, America can grind you down. Americans, this is your country. It’s up to you to revolt. Editor has been there, done that. Good luck to you all, and thanks for the fish, or something like that.
Supports my view that Taliban have unofficially won.

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 03 Oct 2012 23:12
by shyamd
Turkish FM calls NATO. NATO chief says condemns attack and says watching carefully. EU Chief Ashton says hopes both exercise restraint.

Everyone talking about this incident all of a sudden. I'm surprised because this is isn't the first incident where Turks have died due to shelling. They are blowing this one up because they want US on board perhaps?

and they trot Hillary aunty out once again CLINTON: `WE ARE OUTRAGED' ABOUT SYRIA ATTACK ON TURKEY
-----------
Meanwhile uncle delivered 3 helicopters to turks in order to take on the pro Syria faction of the PKK.

-----------
Iraq warns Turkey against cross border raids just as Ankara tells Syria to keep its rockets to itself.

FYI Maliki is fully backing Asad now.

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 04 Oct 2012 01:01
by ramana
ShyamD, We need to step back and see what all this means. Maybe develop a few scenarios and see the outcomes?

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 04 Oct 2012 01:14
by RoyG
ShyamD,

Maliki is not fully backing Assad. How do you come to these conclusions? Did your "source" :roll: tell you? It's a balancing act between his own constituency, Iraqi Sunni demographic as a whole, Iran, US, and Syria. Stability in Syria is in his interest. If the government falls, he would probably want it to be done in a well structured way which keeps Sunni extremism on the Syrian side of the border.

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 04 Oct 2012 01:19
by ramana
RoyG Read Nightwatch. Iraq is definitely supporting Syria by opposing Turkey.

http://www.kforcegov.com/Services/IS/Ni ... 00188.aspx
Iraq-Turkey: The Iraqi Cabinet has decided to dissolve a treaty that authorizes the Turkish armed forces to operate in Iraq. According to a senior Iraqi military official, the move is intended to end Turkey's military presence in the north, where the Turkish militant group, the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), maintains bases.

Comment: The treaty dates to 1995, when Saddam Hussain's government authorized the deployment of Turkish forces to control and suppress the socialist PKK. At some times the Turkish contingent was the equivalent of an army division and never less than a regiment.

The treaty was a means of distributing the costs of regional security. Neither the Turks nor the Iraqi Sunni Arabs like the Kurds. A Turkish military enclave in northern Iraq to control the Kurdish communist insurgents was cheaper than stationing Iraqi Arab soldiers to control the Kurds.

The reasons for terminating the treaty are not clear, but the timing of the action suggests it is a ripple effect from the Syrian uprising. Turkey is a primary backer of the Sunni rebels; tolerates the secessionist impulses of the Syrian Kurds against the government in Damascus; and opposes Baghdad's support of Iran and Syria.

The government in Iraq evidently has decided to take action to stop Turkish meddling with Iraqi Kurds -- such as by encouraging greater autonomy. Turkish actions with the Iraqi Kurds are aimed at intimidating the pro-Iranian government in Baghdad to halt its support for the Syrian government.

Moreover, the Iraqi Arabs viscerally dislike the Turks who once ruled Iraq as a province of the Ottoman Empire.

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 04 Oct 2012 03:26
by RoyG
ramana wrote:RoyG Read Nightwatch. Iraq is definitely supporting Syria by opposing Turkey.

http://www.kforcegov.com/Services/IS/Ni ... 00188.aspx
Iraq-Turkey: The Iraqi Cabinet has decided to dissolve a treaty that authorizes the Turkish armed forces to operate in Iraq. According to a senior Iraqi military official, the move is intended to end Turkey's military presence in the north, where the Turkish militant group, the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), maintains bases.

Comment: The treaty dates to 1995, when Saddam Hussain's government authorized the deployment of Turkish forces to control and suppress the socialist PKK. At some times the Turkish contingent was the equivalent of an army division and never less than a regiment.

The treaty was a means of distributing the costs of regional security. Neither the Turks nor the Iraqi Sunni Arabs like the Kurds. A Turkish military enclave in northern Iraq to control the Kurdish communist insurgents was cheaper than stationing Iraqi Arab soldiers to control the Kurds.

The reasons for terminating the treaty are not clear, but the timing of the action suggests it is a ripple effect from the Syrian uprising. Turkey is a primary backer of the Sunni rebels; tolerates the secessionist impulses of the Syrian Kurds against the government in Damascus; and opposes Baghdad's support of Iran and Syria.

The government in Iraq evidently has decided to take action to stop Turkish meddling with Iraqi Kurds -- such as by encouraging greater autonomy. Turkish actions with the Iraqi Kurds are aimed at intimidating the pro-Iranian government in Baghdad to halt its support for the Syrian government.

Moreover, the Iraqi Arabs viscerally dislike the Turks who once ruled Iraq as a province of the Ottoman Empire.
Ramana, you are right that Maliki's moves are benefiting the Assad but to say that he is fully behind him is a bit of a stretch. Again, he's afraid of the civil strife which will be created in Iraq if Syria and the Assad regime collapse in a chaotic fashion. The move is probably aimed at getting Turkey to pressurize the rebels to negotiate with the Assad regime. Syria might just split.

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 04 Oct 2012 03:38
by shyamd
In the last one hour, both sides exchanging artillery fire.

Turkey convened urgent NATO meeting. Statement issued.

@Washingtonpoint Acc #CNNTurk resolution that authorizes the Parliamentary cross-border operation has opened to be signed by the MPs tonight.

It's gonna be a long night in Ankara.

I think tomorrow Turks will begin heavier deployment into border areas and they could (depending on public mood) go into war mood and with all that involves - patriotic songs on tv and all that.

I doubt the turks will do much without US nod and wink. Hillary is giving a lot of strong words calling for like minded countries to get together to deal with Asad

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 04 Oct 2012 04:03
by ramana
While explaing the US-Israel dilemma with Iran, it struck me that both of them need a Sunni Muslim power to be their partner to strike at Iran. Egypt with its large population was ideal choice but its now a MB run country. And KSA doesnt have the demographics for it. So looks like Turkey is selcted. This will have its own consequences for no one likes the Turks thanks to the Ottomon atrocities over the centuries and the Anatolian ethnic cleansing that was done during World War I by modern Turks.

We can see the slow emergence of Kurdistan from Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran.

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 04 Oct 2012 04:11
by Prem
ramana wrote:We can see the slow emergence of Kurdistan from Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran.
:D with population of 25-30 Millions and huge amount of oil deposits. Kurdistan will be a balancing power and 50/50 chance of going back to their civilizational roots. They are very much aware of their original No Arabic identity.

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 04 Oct 2012 05:02
by Philip
Ottoman mis-adventure Tours:Syria,special deal of the month!

See the ruins of Syria,ancient and modern in the company of expert local Al Qaeda guides (from Libya,Egypt,etc.).take part in exciting coach tours of the ancient cities,Alleppo,Damascus,etc.,and visit sites of souks,still burning,and laugh as you dodge gunfire,rpg rounds and mortar shells.Enjoy firing weapons (choose your weapon cost free), with on spot instant training and make your own ruin! Visit legendary sites of massacres and if you're lucky,you might see and participate in one too! Special gift of genuine Syrian rubble and autographed pic of Sutan Erdogan for every tourist.

Fine print:Return tkt not guaranteed if Syrian Army destroys coach.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... rgets.html

Turkey launches retaliatory attack on Syrian targets
Turkish armed forces have launched artillery attacks against Syria, in the first acknowledged direct involvement of an outside
power in the 18 month conflict.

[quote]By Richard Spencer, Ruth Sherlock in Beirut

8:50PM BST 03 Oct 2012

Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish prime minister, said that the military had responded to an earlier incident in which a mortar bomb fired from Syrian territory landed on the wrong side of the border and killed five Turkish civilians, including three children.

"Our armed forces in the border region responded immediately to this abominable attack in line with their rules of engagement; targets were struck through artillery fire against places in Syria identified by radar,” he said.

“Turkey will never leave unanswered such kinds of provocation by the Syrian regime against our national security."

There was no initial indication that the exchange of fire was a precursor to a wider use of force against the Syrian regime, and Mr Erdogan specified his order was in return for a mortar shell which struck the town of Akcakale earlier in the day.

But the Turkish authorities had already contacted NATO, of which the country is a member. It has previously suggested it might call on the alliance for help in dealing with Syria under the mutual defence terms of the NATO charter.

The initial mortar attack was a sign of the increasing desperation of the Syrian regime as it loses control of the north of the country.

Earlier a series of explosions had levelled buildings and killed scores of people, many of them soldiers, in Aleppo.

Last month, rebels seized a northern border post with Turkey at Tal al-Abyad, and are now reported to be moving on the town of al-Raqqah.

It was regime mortar fire apparently aimed at rebel positions at Tal al-Abyad which fell on the wrong side of the border, killing five people including a woman and her three children. The Turkish government immediately lodged a protest with the United Nations, and then contacted Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the Nato secretary-general, who “strongly condemned” the incident. It is not clear whether Nato was informed in advance of the retaliatory attack.

The attack on Aleppo levelled major buildings around the main Saadallah Jabri Square, the seat of a number of important government buildings.

Television footage from the scene, which is near the front line between rebel and regime forces in the city, showed a military officers’ club and a telecoms building reduced to rubble.

The once impressive facade of the Riga Palace Hotel was left a ragged patchwork of concrete. A further bomb just off the square, near Bab Jenine, wreaked similar damage on the chamber of commerce.

Syria’s state news agency put the death toll at 31. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said 48 people died.

Residents told The Daily Telegraph that most of the victims were members of the security forces lodging in the buildings during the fighting which has consumed the city since mid-July.

“This area was where the regime housed many of its officers, and the hotels were full of its soldiers,” said a resident and opposition activist who called himself Abo Hamdo and who had just returned from the scene.

State media said the explosions were caused by suicide car bombers, and the footage showed a huge crater in the road nearby though no vehicle wreckage. The rest of the square, which connects the historic Old City to the south-east with the municipal park and prosperous, regime-held new city to the north and west, was reduced to dust.

The scale of the damage suggested far bigger explosive charges than those in previous car bombings, and there were immediate, competing conspiracy theories about whether the government version of events was true.

Some residents reported seeing jets in the area, though there was no explanation for what the government could hope to gain by staging an attack behind its own lines. More credibly, there were suggestions that the attacks could have been an “inside job” owing to the difficulty the Free Syrian Army would have had in getting cars laden with explosives through the many government checkpoints on roads leading to the square.

State television showed the supposed bodies of the suicide bombers, one still clutching a detonator, wearing army uniforms “as a disguise”, leading some to suggest they were defectors. An online video purporting to be from Jabhat al-Nusra, a jihadist group accused of ties to al-Qaeda, claimed responsibility.

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 04 Oct 2012 05:29
by Agnimitra
Turkey's neo-Ottoman bravado and Erdo's egotism is typical middle-eastern street talk. They won't do anything significant without active NATO help, and Syria/Iraq/Iran know it.

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 04 Oct 2012 05:39
by Agnimitra
Jhujar wrote:
ramana wrote:We can see the slow emergence of Kurdistan from Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran.
:D with population of 25-30 Millions and huge amount of oil deposits. Kurdistan will be a balancing power and 50/50 chance of going back to their civilizational roots. They are very much aware of their original No Arabic identity.
Unless the other big players there decide to get together and come up with a "solution", the way the Ottomans and Safavids had done. 400 years ago they arranged a brutal population exchange of Azeris for Kurds - based on religious sectarian affiliation. Maybe this time they will reverse that again - based on ethnic-linguistic affiliation?

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 04 Oct 2012 06:42
by Surya
darn i thought there was no need for Turkish invasion (almost a year now)

the SF are already on the ground and its only a matter of time.


aha getting impatient

time to arrange the fig leaf

this ahead of the curve business needs more spin :mrgreen:

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 04 Oct 2012 09:42
by Singha
riots in Iran and currency loses 40% value vs dollar in a week.

meantime perhaps as a deterrent, khan has let it be known over the muezzins loud speaker that JSOC kill teams are working with cia and pentagon to id and kill those responsible for the benghazi consulate attack.

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 04 Oct 2012 10:12
by RoyG
The currency war against Iran is turning the people against the regime. They are trying to topple the regime from within. Russia and China aren't going to sit around and do nothing.

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 04 Oct 2012 10:38
by pentaiah
If it costs money they will stay out, If Iran gives 99 years free lease of oil sharing or natural gas sharing of 66.6666" to Panda and 33.3333" to Iran then we are talking business

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Posted: 04 Oct 2012 11:18
by shyamd
@BenjaminHarvey: Turkish parliament convenes at 10 for vote on measure giving govt authority to initiate cross-border operations in Syria.

@BenjaminHarvey: Request to authorize military action against Syria was signed by Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan and submitted to parliament.

@BenjaminHarvey: "The situation has reached a phase which poses a serious threat and risks to our national security" -- motion on Syria in Turkish parliament

--------------
Turkey resumed shelling at 0300GMT.