Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch
Posted: 13 Jun 2023 09:42
Per Imran Khan, 16K Paki doctors overseas have a combined net worth of $200 billion, so if only they kept him on as PM, he'd be getting their investments into Pakistan.
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KARACHI: Russian crude oil will produce more furnace oil (FO) than high-speed diesel (HSD), which would not reduce the prices of petroleum products domestically, The News learned Monday.
According to the oil industry players, the arrival of the first cargo of Russian crude oil has been celebrated from the top level of the government to the media.
However, the anticipated reduction in the prices of petroleum products, particularly diesel, and petrol, in the near future would not be possible.
They pointed out that the Russian crude oil was heavy and would produce 50% furnace oil, 32% high-speed diesel, and 18% of the remaining products.
On the other hand, they pointed out that domestic refineries could extract 50% HSD and 25% furnace oil from Arabian crude oil.
They believed that Russian crude oil might disturb the economic pattern of petroleum products from crude oil, and for it to be more commercially viable, the oil price should be at a higher discounted level.
They said that the first Russian cargo was a trial. After its processing, the report of its refining would be forwarded to the government to determine its economic viability for the country.
Industry people said that producing more furnace oil from this crude oil would further add to the existing stock of this fuel. Pakistan currently possesses huge stocks of FO in the range of hundreds of thousands of tonnes due to its non-lifting by the local power plants.
They said that Pakistani refineries have struggled to dispose of this massive stock after the power generation plants refused to stockpile FO.
Refineries also exported some of the stock to the international market at a lower price to keep the operations of their refineries running smoothly.
typical baki brillianceDilbu wrote: ...Industry people said that producing more furnace oil from this crude oil would further add to the existing stock of this fuel. Pakistan currently possesses huge stocks of FO in the range of hundreds of thousands of tonnes due to its non-lifting by the local power plants.
They said that Pakistani refineries have struggled to dispose of this massive stock after the power generation plants refused to stockpile FO.
Refineries also exported some of the stock to the international market at a lower price to keep the operations of their refineries running smoothly.
Is each paki doctor settled in western countries worth $32 million??A_Gupta wrote:Per Imran Khan, 16K Paki doctors overseas have a combined net worth of $200 billion, so if only they kept him on as PM, he'd be getting their investments into Pakistan.
rajsunder wrote:Is each paki doctor settled in western countries worth $32 million??A_Gupta wrote:Per Imran Khan, 16K Paki doctors overseas have a combined net worth of $200 billion, so if only they kept him on as PM, he'd be getting their investments into Pakistan.
May be some super specialty doctors settled in US might be worth that and more. But i doubt anyone working for UK NHS is worth half that amount.
so just another alias for Bakistan then..g.sarkar wrote:https://www.geo.tv/latest/492851-no-joy-in-biparjoy
.....Biparjoy means disaster or calamity in Bengali..
so ghazi baba is effective against only the kudrati (natural) stuff... the Indian navy must have blown up his mystic-ness in 1971...
Ghazi Sahab, or Abdullah Shah Ghazi, is a Muslim mystic and Sufi whose shrine is in Clifton, Karachi. Locals call him Ghazi Sahab.
It is believed that Ghazi Sahab protects Karachi from natural calamities, especially those linked to the sea, like tsunamis and storms.
...
Gautam
janab,mody wrote:The Pakistani budget figures just simply don't add up. All the past figures also differ widely with the actual expense incurred, with the expenses always being higher and the revenue as well as borrowings always falling short.
How do they manage to make ends meet? Are the pakis simply printing money? If yes, why haven't they gone the Zimbabwe, Argentina or Venezuela way, with hyper inflation and totally worthless currency?
The only way for the paki govt. to even pay their regular bills and pay for all the interest payments would be to print money to makeup for the shortfall.
Apart from this, from most sources, the RAPE class and the well to do rich class in the shithole are still living relatively comfortably. Its only the aam abdul that is suffering and in that too, the real grinding poverty levels, like in some of the poorest belts in India, are only being seen in places are rural Sindh and rural Balochistan. Even in KP and the tribal badlands there aren't reports of wide spread hunger or begging etc. The chronic malnutrition and the populace making do with only 1 square meal a day are absent from most parts of pakistan, except for a few pockets, as mentioned earlier. We don't see reports of stunted and malnourished kids from KP and the tribal areas or most of Punjab. Only southern Punjab, rural Sindh and rural Balochistan, have higher levels of poverty. However, the economy, employment and business across pakistan is supposed to be in a really bad shape.
Something doesn't seem to add up somewhere. Seems like there is still some way to go for the pigs.
On the external front, most of the loans that the pakis have are either from the IMF or bilateral loans from amongst the 4 fathers. They don't have too many external commercial loans (no commercial bank or financial entity in their right frame of mind, would ever lend to the pigs) or loans from European countries etc. Over the last 1 year, they have managed to roll over most of the bilateral loans from the likes of China, UAE and the Saudis. Some the loans from other sources have been repaid.
With regards to the domestic internal debt, I guess they might just be fudging the books and or printing money to keep making the payments.
ISLAMABAD': The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Wednesday said that the proposed budget missed the opportunity to broaden the tax base, terming the new tax amnesty scheme a “damaging precedent”.
In a first official reaction to the expansionary Rs14.5 trillion budget, Esther Perez Ruiz, the resident representative of the IMF, said that the amnesty scheme is also against the good “governance agenda” and against the $6.5 billion programme objective.
The statement highlights the serious differences that persist between Pakistan and the IMF, which now may not be bridged in the remaining 15 days.
“The draft FY24 Budget misses an opportunity to broaden the tax base in a more progressive way, and the long list of new tax expenditures reduces further the fairness of the tax system,” Esther stated.
“The new tax amnesty runs against the programme’s conditionality and governance agenda and creates a damaging precedent,” Esther stated, echoing the views expressed by many Pakistanis.
Under the IMF programme, Pakistan cannot give any type of tax amnesty scheme and the Pakistan Democratic Movement government had also agreed to this condition but is now violating it.
The government has proposed an amendment in Section 111 (4) that increased the question-free remittance limit from “five million rupees” to “rupees equivalent of one hundred thousand United States dollars”. At the current exchange rate, about Rs30 million can be whitened without disclosing the source of income.
ISLAMABAD: The federal government is said to have paid over Rs 402 billion (approximately $1.7 billion @ Rs 235/USD) cost of rollovers of $7 billion Chinese and Saudi deposits, well informed sources in Finance Division told Business Recorder. As per Rules of Business, 1973, the Ministry of Economic Affairs is responsible for, amongst other, external debt management, including authorization of remittances for all external debt servicing, compilation of data, accounting and analysis of economic assistance from foreign governments and organisations.
Beg pardon. i am a layman in finance. '1.7 billion USD as cost of rollover for 7 billion USD loans'. Is this another way of saying that they paid 24% additional interest (or penalty), over the original interest?Dilbu wrote:..ISLAMABAD: The federal government is said to have paid over Rs 402 billion (approximately $1.7 billion @ Rs 235/USD) cost of rollovers of $7 billion Chinese and Saudi deposits, well informed sources in Finance Division told Business Recorder. ...
Sound reasoning, Anujan ji.Anujan wrote:There might be more to this oil tamasha or the pakis are showing their usual tactical brilliance.
They do not have the refining capacity. They import diesel. Then what is the point in importing crude. Of a category that is not refinable by their refineries?
They want the source 2/3 of their oil requirements from Russia. Remember that Saudis have offered them free oil and deferred payments. How are they going to pay for this oil from Russia? What are the Saudis going to think about this deal?
There was a news article that they paid for this oil by using Chinese currency. But Pakistan has a negative trade balance with China. How did they find the Chinese currency? Especially when they have not even paid the Chinese independent power producers? This is the interesting question that I have in mind. Did China just give them deferred oil like facility by opening a swap line with their currency? Essentially, China is financing Russia through the back door.
As partha-ji suggested. Pakistan should issue a stern warning to IMF that if they don't bail out Pakistan now, they'd have to bail out Pakistan in the future with a lot more money.What appears to be an end of a thorny four-year relationship, Finance Minister Ishaq Dar on Thursday refused to take the International Monetary Fund’s advice on the issue of giving tax exemptions while terming its attitude “not professional”.
In a strongly-worded response to the IMF’s statement about the new budget and the tax amnesty scheme, Dar came down hard on the global lender. He appeared before the Senate Standing Committee on Finance and criticised the IMF attitude since October last year.
The Porkis in their budget revenue estimates have already factored in $2.5 Billion coming from IMF (meaning they have assumed that IMF will readily give $7.5 Billion under a fresh 3 year program)
Paying or receiving interest on monies is haram for mard-e-momeeni. However, haramkhors that porkis are, sab chalta haiRaviB wrote:They probably paid off the interest using domestic borrowing. The higher interest rates charged, plus the 26% higher price of dollars+ rollover fee. Since it's basically Pakistan not meeting its obligation paying back the principal, so there is a penalty called a rollover fee, that could be around 0.5% or higher. And then the loan is renegotiated, the previous interest rate is not just carried forward, so that would have led to an increase in interest rates.
The cost does seem on the higher side though but the drop in PKR probably contributed most of the cost.
Gautam ji,g.sarkar wrote:https://en.dailypakistan.com.pk/17-Jun- ... -crude-oil
How much discount Pakistan has received on Russian crude oil?
17 Jun, 2023
ISLAMABAD — Russian Energy Minister Nikolai Shulginov has clarified that no any exclusive discounts had been given to Pakistan on the import of crude oil.
Pakistan has received its first shipment of Russian crude oil under an agreement signed between Islamabad and Moscow in April this year. The cargo carrying 45,000 metric tonnes of crude oil arrived at the southern city of Karachi on Sunday while another 50,000 metric tonnes is expected to reach later this month.
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said that it was discounted Russian crude oil. Taking to Twitter, he worte: “Glad to announce that the first Russian discounted crude oil cargo has arrived in Karachi and will begin oil discharge tomorrow”.
"This is the first ever Russian oil cargo to Pakistan and the beginning of a new relationship between Pakistan and Russian Federation," he added.
Minister of State for Petroleum Musadik Malik also confirmed that the oil was imported on discounted rates.
But, the statement given by the Russian minister said otherwise. Shulginov said there was no reduced pricing for Pakistan.
"Oil deliveries to Pakistan have begun. There is no special discount; for Pakistan, it is the same as for other buyers," Russian state media quoted minister as telling reporters on the sidelines of an international economic conference in St. Petersburg.
His remarks has raised questions on claims being made by the Pakistan government.
"We agreed that the payment would be made in the currencies of friendly countries," Shulginov said while responding to question if Pakistan would pay in Chinese currency. He added that the issue of barter supplies was also discussed, "but no decision has been made yet.”
.....
Gautam
If India can pay in INR, Pakistan should be able to pay in Pakistani rupees, or at least in Pakistani printed, as good as original (Alhamdulillah), Indian rupees.
@InamSh1·Jun 17
The Russian Oil import went from
- Russia to India
- India to UAE
- UAE to Pakistan
At least $17 per barrel enjoyed by Indian buyer
It was approx a 250000 barrels shipment
pak only gets a lollipop that they bought Russian oil & Shell made an excuse to exit
Gautam saar,g.sarkar wrote:Chetakji,
Has India been paid already? Seeing is believing.
Gautam
ISLAMABAD: Petroleum Minister Musadik Malik has said that despite the increased yield of furnace oil during the refining as well as high operational costs of the import, the Russian fuel would be significantly beneficial for Pakistan, even as a Russian minister ruled out any sort of exclusive discount for Islamabad on the purchase of ‘Urals’ crude from Moscow.
“Oil deliveries to Pakistan have begun. There is no special discount; for Pakistan, it is the same as for other buyers,” Energy Minister Nikolai Shulginov told the Russian state media on Friday on the sidelines of an international economic conference in St. Petersburg, according to a VOA report.
The Russian minister, however, confirmed that it had started exporting oil to Pakistan and had agreed to accept Chinese currency as payment. But the deal did not include any exclusive discounts on the purchase deal, he added, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced last week that the first “Russian discounted crude oil cargo” had arrived and offloaded at the port in Karachi. Pakistan’s petroleum minister later revealed that Pakistan had paid in yuan for the first government-to-government Russian crude oil import.
Mr Shulginov confirmed this claim. “We agreed that the payment would be made in the currencies of friendly countries,” said the minister when asked if Pakistan was paying Russia in Chinese currency. He also confirmed that the issue of barter supplies was also discussed, “but no decision has been made yet.”
pakis pay in dollars, or in this case chinese yuan, the jihadis have no choiceg.sarkar wrote:https://en.dailypakistan.com.pk/17-Jun- ... -crude-oil
How much discount Pakistan has received on Russian crude oil?
17 Jun, 2023
ISLAMABAD — Russian Energy Minister Nikolai Shulginov has clarified that no any exclusive discounts had been given to Pakistan on the import of crude oil.
Pakistan has received its first shipment of Russian crude oil under an agreement signed between Islamabad and Moscow in April this year. The cargo carrying 45,000 metric tonnes of crude oil arrived at the southern city of Karachi on Sunday while another 50,000 metric tonnes is expected to reach later this month.
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said that it was discounted Russian crude oil. Taking to Twitter, he worte: “Glad to announce that the first Russian discounted crude oil cargo has arrived in Karachi and will begin oil discharge tomorrow”.
"This is the first ever Russian oil cargo to Pakistan and the beginning of a new relationship between Pakistan and Russian Federation," he added.
Minister of State for Petroleum Musadik Malik also confirmed that the oil was imported on discounted rates.
But, the statement given by the Russian minister said otherwise. Shulginov said there was no reduced pricing for Pakistan.
"Oil deliveries to Pakistan have begun. There is no special discount; for Pakistan, it is the same as for other buyers," Russian state media quoted minister as telling reporters on the sidelines of an international economic conference in St. Petersburg.
His remarks has raised questions on claims being made by the Pakistan government.
"We agreed that the payment would be made in the currencies of friendly countries," Shulginov said while responding to question if Pakistan would pay in Chinese currency. He added that the issue of barter supplies was also discussed, "but no decision has been made yet.”
.....
Gautam
If India can pay in INR, Pakistan should be able to pay in Pakistani rupees, or at least in Pakistani printed, as good as original (Alhamdulillah), Indian rupees.
g.sarkar wrote:Chetakji,
Has India been paid already? Seeing is believing.
Gautam
ISLAMABAD: The persistent trend of inflation in Pakistan shows no sign of abating as the latest weekly report reveals a slight increase of 0.20 percent in the inflation rate, pushing the annual inflation rate to a staggering 34.96 percent.
The impact of inflation has been particularly severe for individuals earning a monthly income between Rs17,733 and Rs22,888, with an inflation rate of 36.51 percent. Amidst this challenging scenario, the prices of 19 essential commodities have surged, while 12 have experienced a decline, and 20 have remained stable.
According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) weekly inflation report, prices of potatoes, tomatoes, garlic, lentil mash, sugar, laundry soap, beef, mutton, open milk, curd, jaggery, flour, and salt have witnessed significant increases over the past week. Conversely, prices of LPG, mung dal, dal masoor, gram dal, eggs, onions, chicken, and cooking oil have registered a decline, while prices of 20 essential items stayed unchanged.
If it was so easy to obtain $3-4bn from friendly countries Pakistan could have done it already and secured IMF deal as the $3bn financing gap was one of the top sticking points so this is another attempt to fool the masses. Also one of the reasons why "friendly countries" did not fill that gap was that they needed Pakistan to sign the staff level agreement with IMF first so if IMF program is scrapped why will "friendly countries" agree to give any more funds which will be riskier if IMF is out of the picture? If they wanted to they would have already given more.In case there’s no deal with IMF: Efforts under way to obtain $3-4bn from friendly countries
There was also a report recently about Pakistan wanting to start a fresh IMF program instead of continuing with the current one. Pray tell me how that will change anything? Will IMF relax conditions because Pakis want a new program?PM Shehbaz confident of IMF deal ‘this month’
ISLAMABAD: Keeping in view the possibility of a continued deadlock with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) till the end of June 2023, Pakistan — under the much-hyped Plan B — is left with no option but to make a request to its bilateral partners for additions deposits of $3 billion, The News reported Sunday.
The Q Block (Ministry of Finance) is contemplating all available options to bridge financing from bilateral friends to avert the looming crisis on its external accounts in case the ninth review is not completed.
It may only be wishful thinking as friendly countries like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have linked their additional deposits of $2 billion and $1 billion respectively with the signing of the staff-level agreement and revival of the IMF programme.
“This arrangement is in our minds and we will request additional deposits of $3 billion from our bilateral friends and hope it will be done. If it is materialised, then it will help Islamabad pass the next few months without fear of default,” an official said.
Meanwhile, Finance Minister Ishaq Dar said that China would grant rollover of $1 billion and $300 million commercial loan re-financing within the ongoing month, so $2.3 billion would not deplete from the foreign exchange reserves by the end of June 2023.
Vips ji,Vips wrote:I think the evil IMF/Word Bank and Saudi/UAE are playing a well orchestrated game to squeeze Porki Nuts. Absent the IMF staff level agreement, whatever sovereign assets the Pakistani's have will be hypothecated/sold to Saudi and UAE.
Chinese are of course past master at exploiting those who take loan from them.
Needless to say Army folks will take full advantage in taking their cut and offer services to the creditors in offering the juiciest assets far below their market prices.
General Hamid Gul, a former head of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence, spelled out publicly in 2014 how the ISI used aid provided by the United States after 9/11 to continue funding the Taliban and how it benefited from the U.S. decision to initially ignore the Afghan Islamist group in favor of its pursuit of al Qaeda. He told a television audience in 2014: “When history is written, it will be stated that the ISI defeated the Soviet Union in Afghanistan with the help of America. Then there will be another sentence. The ISI, with the help of America, defeated America.”
More recently, senior Pakistani officials have also crowed about the U.S. failure to eliminate the Taliban. Washington’s diplomatic engagement with the Islamist group, they believe, amounts to a tacit acceptance of its influence in Afghanistan. After the February 2020 signing in Doha of the U.S.-Taliban agreement at Doha in February 2020, which paved the way for the U.S. troop withdrawal, Khawaja Muhammad Asif, a former Pakistani minister for defense and minister for foreign affairs, tweeted a photograph of U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo meeting Taliban leader Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar. He added a comment: “You might have might on your side, but God is with us. Allah u Akbar!”
As foreign minister, Asif insisted that Pakistan’s relations with the Taliban only reflected acknowledgment of their political force in Afghanistan. He also criticized the United States for turning Pakistan into a “whipping boy” for its own failure to destroy the group. But he felt no need for diplomatic doublespeak in this moment of triumph. To Pakistanis such as Gul and Asif, the Taliban’s impending victory is also a victory for Pakistan’s covert operations.