Must read:
Hezbollah Prepares for a Wider War Than It May Want
Hezbollah’s launching of a pilotless spy plane, which was shot down by Israel’s air force in the southern part of the country in early October, has been seen as more evidence that the Lebanese militia is preparing for war.
Israelis assume that the drone was gathering visual intelligence to help Hezbollah in its goal of bombarding distant targets with long-range surface-to-surface missiles.
No doubt it was collecting information in case of another confrontation with Israel, but whether the terrorist group is seeking a full-blown war is a more complicated question that may depend less on what Hezbollah wants than on the heat it is getting from its patrons.
The group’s possession of so sophisticated a craft (which was assembled from Iranian-made parts) is further evidence that Hezbollah is the most advanced and best-equipped militia of its kind the world has ever seen.
Ever since it forced the Israelis’ panicky retreat from Lebanon in 2000, Hezbollah has been building up an immense military force, with firepower that 90 percent of the world’s countries don’t possess, according to Meir Dagan, the former director of the Mossad, Israel’s intelligence agency.
The militia’s war doctrine is based on the assumption that Israel is hypersensitive to civilian casualties, that it cannot wage a protracted war and that it will always aim for the quickest possible clear-cut victory. With this in mind, Hezbollah has constructed a complex network of underground bunkers with the goal of assuring survivability, redundancy and an ability to maintain a prolonged missile barrage against Israeli cities.
Successful Strategy
The doctrine proved itself in the war between the two sides in 2006, when Israel failed in its attempt to liquidate Hezbollah and was once again forced to withdraw from Lebanon, bruised and bleeding.
Hezbollah’s approach to combat came from Iran. The organization was founded in 1983 by Iran’s revolutionary guards as part of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s plan to export his revolution. Over the years, with Iranian funding and encouragement, the group has become the most important political and military player in Lebanon.
In recent years, Hezbollah has taken on an additional role, serving as an effective bargaining chip in the balance of fear between Iran and Israel, deterring the latter from going ahead with any mission to attack Iran’s nuclear installations. One reason that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has held back is Hezbollah’s ability to wreak havoc in Israel with its huge stockpile of some 70,000 missiles and rockets, the most powerful of which is the Scud D, with a range of 700 kilometers (about 435 miles). Were it not for Hezbollah’s missiles, a top Israeli defense official told me, Israel would have struck Iran’s sites long ago.
That said, one shouldn’t draw conclusions based only on Hezbollah’s past and potential successes. The organization is at a crossroads. Syria, its second-most-important ally, is going through upheaval and faces fundamental changes. The munitions from Iran to Hezbollah are transported through Syria. The regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has also supplied large weapons to Hezbollah, as well as provided access to launching sites -- “the strategic bases,” as Mossad calls them -- for its missile barrages against Israel.
Any regime that takes over from Assad will remember who supported him as he slaughtered thousands of civilians. Being cut off from Syria is a nightmare for Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
Lebanon’s Role
No less menacing is the possibility, which is by no means far-fetched, that the Arab Spring will reach Lebanon, a prospect that might include a rebellion against Hezbollah’s state within a state. Even the regime in Iran is far from rock solid, and changes there could significantly worsen Hezbollah’s relations with its patron.
With the perspective of time, what appeared to be a victory over Israel in 2006 takes on a more complex cast. The war began when Hezbollah abducted two Israeli soldiers in a cross-border raid. Israel’s massive response came as a surprise to Nasrallah, and he admitted publicly that he hadn’t expected it. Although Hezbollah survived and was seen to have won that round, Lebanon as a whole sustained heavy damage and many Lebanese blamed Nasrallah for precipitating it.
Nasrallah is aware that the next confrontation with Israel will look different. The Israelis have invested in vast intelligence operations since 2006. Hezbollah believes that these efforts were evident in the February 2008 killing in Damascus of Imad Moughniyeh, the group’s military commander, with a booby-trapped headrest in his car, as well in mysterious explosions at some of its illicit missile depots in Lebanon.
More important, Israel has already declared several times that if and when war breaks out again, it will hold the Lebanese government responsible and will destroy government targets.
The 2006 war created a mutual deterrence: the Israelis refrain from an open pre-emptive assault against Hezbollah’s missile stockpiles, while the militia is compelled to moderate its responses. Instead, it has tried to avenge Mughniyeh’s assassination and other suspected Israeli actions by attacking Israeli tourists and diplomats in far-flung locations, outside of the Middle East, from New Delhi, and Baku, Azerbaijan, to Bangkok.
Nasrallah’s predicament springs chiefly from his dual role as Iran’s proxy and an authentic Lebanese leader who would like to be seen as leader of all the Arabs, not only of the Shiites. It was on behalf of the Iranians, senior Israeli intelligence officials told me, that Hezbollah operatives attacked Israeli tourists in the Bulgarian resort of Burgas on July 18, killing six people.
Iran’s Power
This was seen as revenge for the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientists for which Iran blames Israel. And it is for Iran’s benefit that Hezbollah has made such intense preparations for war, including the recent drone reconnaissance mission. Iran, in the event of an Israeli assault on its territory, will demand that Hezbollah wreak vengeance on its behalf, and Nasrallah, the Lebanese politician, is aware that this could lead to devastation in his country, for which he will be blamed.
Yet it is doubtful that Nasrallah, who owes everything he possesses to Iran, could say no to such an order from his patrons. Israeli intelligence sources reckon that he may well select a middle path -- a barrage that is limited in both the number of missiles launched and in time, so that Israel won’t feel obligated to launch a full-scale military attack in response. This would be a dangerous gamble.
As Nasrallah has learned, it is not always possible to know what to expect from the other side, especially when it comes to the Israelis. Even a limited engagement could deteriorate into a war.
(Ronen Bergman is a senior correspondent for military and intelligence affairs for Yedioth Ahronoth, an Israeli daily, and a contributing writer for the New York Times Magazine. The opinions expressed are his own.)
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Uncle giving out its take:
Syria’s Misery
Published: November 2, 2012
As the war continues in Syria, with civilians caught in the stalemate between President Bashar al-Assad’s troops and rebel forces, the United States, the United Nations and others are looking for political ways out. The latest proposal by the Obama administration is pragmatic.
On Wednesday, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton announced that Washington was embarking on its most aggressive effort yet to reshape the Syrian opposition. It has withdrawn support from the Syrian National Council, which was established last year by exiles who have lived abroad for decades, in favor of a new structure that would have heavy representation from Syrians actually fighting in the war. Hundreds of opposition figures are supposed to meet in Qatar next week to discuss this idea.
The Americans’ frustration with the Syrian National Council is understandable. Most of its members are out of touch with what’s really happening in the country. They have been hopelessly divided, incapable of making decisions, and have failed to persuade Syrians that they offer a viable alternative to Mr. Assad.
Since the war began, scores of new local opposition organizations have sprung up in Syria. They are much better positioned to help the United States and other donors direct humanitarian and other assistance. They also offer a better chance of reaching out to those who still back Mr. Assad — especially the military — and persuading them to abandon him in favor of a new order. Mrs. Clinton has acknowledged that she has recommended individuals and organizations to be part of the new leadership structure. But there is a risk that the new group could be seen as an American-made entity. The rebels would have more support if they committed to marginalizing the jihadists who have joined the fight. If there is a deal in Doha, the United States and its partners are prepared to help quickly carry out assistance projects. Congress should support the administration in this effort.
China also weighed in with a proposal this week that seeks to end the conflict with a phased-in truce. The plan differs little from the initiative of the United Nations peace envoy, which has gotten nowhere. Beijing undoubtedly feels uneasy about how its support for Mr. Assad has soured relations with Arab governments. But it still refuses to join Western and Arab nations in pressuring him to give up power.
Syria army quits base on strategic Aleppo road
The Syrian army abandoned its last base near the northern town of Saraqeb after a fierce assault by rebels, further isolating the strategically important second city Aleppo from the capital.
But in a political setback to forces battling to topple President Bashar al-Assad, the United Nations said the rebels appeared to have committed a war crime after seizing the base.
The opposition Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said on Friday government troops had retreated from a post northwest of Saraqeb, leaving the town and surrounding areas "completely outside the control of regime forces".
It was not immediately possible to verify the reported army withdrawal. Authorities restrict journalists' access in Syria and state media made no reference to Saraqeb.
The pullout followed coordinated rebel attacks on Thursday against three military posts around Saraqeb, 50 km (30 miles) southwest of Aleppo, in which 28 soldiers were killed.
Several were shown in video footage being shot after they had surrendered.
"The allegations are that these were soldiers who were no longer combatants. And therefore, at this point it looks very likely that this is a war crime, another one," U.N. human rights spokesman Rupert Colville said in Geneva.
"Unfortunately this could be just the latest in a string of documented summary executions by opposition factions as well as by government forces and groups affiliated with them, such as the shabbiha (pro-government militia)," he said.
Video footage of the killings showed rebels berating the captured men, calling them "Assad's dogs", before firing round after round into their bodies as they lay on the ground.
Rights groups and the United Nations say rebels and forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad have committed war crimes during the 19-month-old conflict. It began with protests against Assad and has spiraled into a civil war which has killed 32,000 people and threatens to drag in regional powers.
The mainly Sunni Muslim rebels are supported by Sunni states including Saudi Arabia, Qatar and neighboring Turkey. Shi'ite Iran remains the strongest regional supporter of Assad, who is from the Alawite faith which is an offshoot of Shi'ite Islam.
STRATEGIC BLOW
Saraqeb lies at the meeting point of Syria's main north-south highway, linking Aleppo with Damascus, and another road connecting Aleppo to the Mediterranean port of Latakia.
With areas of rural Aleppo and border crossings to Turkey already under rebel control, the loss of Saraqeb would leave Aleppo city further cut off from Assad's Damascus powerbase.
Any convoys using the highways from Damascus or the Mediterranean city of Latakia would be vulnerable to rebel attack. This would force the army to use smaller rural roads or send supplies on a dangerous route from Al-Raqqa in the east, according to the Observatory's director, Rami Abdelrahman.
In response to the rebels' territorial gains, Assad has stepped up air strikes against opposition strongholds, launching some of the heaviest raids so far against working class suburbs east of Damascus over the last week.
The bloodshed has continued unabated despite an attempted ceasefire, proposed by join U.N.-Arab League envoy Lakhdar Brahimi to mark last month's Muslim holiday of Eid al-Adha.
In the latest in a string of fruitless international initiatives, China called on Thursday for a phased, region-by-region ceasefire and the setting up of a transitional governing body - an idea which opposition leaders hope to flesh out at a meeting in Qatar next week.
Veteran opposition leader Riad Seif has proposed a structure bringing together the rebel Free Syrian Army, regional military councils and other rebel forces alongside local civilian bodies and prominent opposition figures.
His plan, called the Syrian National Initiative, calls for four bodies to be established: the Initiative Body, including political groups, local councils, national figures and rebel forces; a Supreme Military Council; a Judicial Committee and a transitional government made up of technocrats.
The initiative has the support of Washington. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called on Wednesday for an overhaul of the opposition, saying it was time to move beyond the troubled Syrian National Council.
The SNC has failed to win recognition as the legitimate representative of the Syrian people and Clinton said it was time to bring in "those on the front lines fighting and dying".
The Syrian National Initiative or transitional govt is basically a quota based system - the cabinet will be: 15 - 25% SNC, 40% oppostion figures from within Syria - mainly military reps, 35% "liberals".
Read more here:
Syrian dissident pushes to unite fragmented opposition
AMMAN (Reuters) - The fragmented Syrian opposition will attempt once again this weekend to forge a common policy to gain international respect, obtain weapons and, most importantly, topple Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, a formerly imprisoned dissident said.
"An alternative to the regime is dearly needed," said Riad Seif, a liberal politician who is battling cancer and managed to leave Syria only a few months ago after having been imprisoned.
"We are talking about a temporary period that begins with forming a political leadership until a national assembly that represents all Syrians meets in Damascus, once Assad falls," Seif said in an interview with Reuters in Amman.
He spoke after talking to opposition figures in advance of a of a meeting of the wider opposition movement in Doha this weekend to form a united front to help end the 19-month uprising against Assad that has claimed more than 32,000 lives, left many parts of the country in ruins and threatens to widen into a regional conflict.
Divisions between Islamists and secularists as well as between those inside Syria and opposition figures based abroad have thwarted prior attempts to forge a united opposition.
On Wednesday, the United States called for an overhaul of the Syrian opposition's leadership, saying it was time to move beyond the Syrian National Council (SNC), the largest of the groupings abroad, and bring in those "in the front lines fighting and dying".
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, signaling a more active stance by Washington in attempts to form a credible political opposition to Assad, said the meeting in Qatar would be an opportunity to broaden the coalition against him.
Unlike previous efforts that failed to come up with a unified leadership, Seif said the Doha assembly will be more inclusive, representing a myriad of religious and activists' groupings as well as more members of Assad's minority Alawite sect and Kurdish political leaders.
Among those Seif met in Amman was former Syrian Prime Minister Riad Hijab, who defected to Jordan three months ago and is playing a major role in the new effort led by Seif.
He also met with Suhair al-Atassi, an organizer of peaceful street demonstrations early in the revolt, and physician Kamal al-Labwani, a long-time political prisoner who is now an outspoken advocate for armed struggle.
"AVOID MORE LOSSES"
"We have 10 million Syrians who need everything from housing to security to public services, and a regime we have to take every possible measure to remove to avoid more losses," Seif said, referring to inhabitants of areas under rebel control or where central authority had collapsed.
The charismatic 66-year old, who has been suffering from cancer for years, is one of Syria's most prominent dissidents.
Having been assaulted by Assad's security forces at a pro-democracy demonstration early in the revolt, he commands respect on the ground as well from opposition figures, whose bickering has undermined the rebellion and made Western and regional powers wary of recognizing the opposition.
While still in Syria, Seif was secretly chosen as a member of the Syrian National Council, which has come in for domestic and international criticism as being under-representative of activists on the ground and dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood.
After leaving Syria early this summer, Seif spent weeks receiving medical treatment in Germany before his condition improved and he began a concerted effort to bring together the disparate opposition groups.
An initiative bearing his name will form the basis of discussions at meetings starting in Doha on Sunday.
A previous large gathering in Cairo in July failed to appoint a committee that would have acted as the opposition's face to the world. But most delegates agreed that Assad had to be toppled and replaced by multi-party democracy. Seif said the Cairo documents remain the opposition's political manifesto.
He proposes the formation of a new, 50-member civilian group that will later chose a temporary government and coordinate with the military wing of the revolt.
He said the 50-member assembly will represent the "effective powers in the revolution" and "be convincing to the Syrian people", adding that efforts were being made to bring the rebels under a unified military command.
Western, Turkish and Arab recognition of the new opposition structure, Seif said, will help channel anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles to the rebels and "decide the battle".
Seif said independent figures, such as Syrian intellectual Sadeq Jalal al-Azm, will be in the group to lend credibility. Representatives of opposition local councils that are providing services in Syria's 14 governates also will be on board.
Opposition sources said the success of Seif's initiative would depend on how much he can resist pressure from the SNC to put more of its members in the new assembly, and reach a consensus on how respond to international initiative to deal with what is increasingly becoming a Syrian civil war.
"There is already talk that most of the members of the new assembly will be from the SNC. If this turns out to be true then Seif's initiative may be doomed to failure," said an SNC member who has been advocating a more representative opposition.
What I reported in December 2011 is now being spoken about:
Syria turmoil stirs Iraqi tribal sympathies, hopes
Wed, Oct 31 10:26 AM EDT
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By Patrick Markey and Suadad al-Salhy
RAMADI, Iraq (Reuters) - In guesthouses and mosques across Iraq's Anbar province, the talk at Sunni tribal gatherings has turned from the usual debate over local politics to a matter even more pressing - the war next door.
Many people in Iraq's Sunni heartland, once al Qaeda's stronghold in the country, are most concerned with helping their kin. Tribal ties span the border, and Sunni chieftains and community leaders say Iraqi tribes regularly send Syrian relatives food and supplies.
Some openly support Free Syrian Army rebels with arms when border controls allowed.
But many also are anticipating the day when Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is overthrown and replaced by a Sunni regime that will give them a counterweight to Shi'ite power that has grown steadily in Baghdad since the fall of Saddam Hussein.
"Baghdad is helping Assad for sectarian reasons," Sheikh Abdul Rahman Ali, chief of the tribal council in Falluja. "But when Assad goes, we will have a brother regime at our back."
For Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and other Shi'ite leaders, the prospect of a possibly radical Sunni leader next door is a nightmare scenario. They fear it will embolden the country's own Sunni leaders and could tempt insurgents in Syria to turn their sights on Iraq.
Maliki has tried to walk a delicate line on Syria. He must avoid alienating both his non-Arab ally Shi'ite Iran, who supports Assad, long Tehran's closest supporter in the region, and the United States, as well as Iraq's Sunni Gulf Arab neighbors and Turkey, who support the mostly Sunni rebels.
With Anbar province awash in weapons and the fighting close across a porous border, security concerns are building.
Iraq says Sunni Islamists are crossing into Syria and security experts believe al Qaeda's affiliate in Iraq has been reinvigorated by money and arms from Syria's turmoil.
In a sign Syria's crisis is dragging its neighbors into a proxy war, Iraqi Shi'ite militants are also fighting there, often alongside Assad's troops, claiming fidelity to Iran's supreme religious leader. Iraqi officials and arms dealers acknowledge the intensifying conflict has already spurred demand in weapons markets in Iraq.
Fearing insurgents slipping back across the border, Maliki earlier this year ordered the al Qaim border crossing in Anbar closed, only recently allowing women and children refugees to cross. Army divisions from outside Anbar have reinforced the frontier, where troops occasionally exchange fire with Syrian rebels and smugglers.
His actions have served to stir up resentments in the vast, sparsely populated desert province that makes up a large portion of the 600-km (375-mile) Syrian-Iraqi frontier.
Since the 2003 invasion and rise of the Shi'ite majority through the ballot box, many minority Iraqi Sunnis say they feel sidelined in a power-sharing agreement among the Shi'ite, Sunni and Kurds blocks. They believe Maliki is consolidating his own authority at their expense.
Syria's crisis is worsening those political tensions. At one meeting this month in a Ramadi tribal guesthouse, leaders sat among its red-marble pillars organizing committees to collect money, food and supplies to help Syrian refugees. Tribal meetings now regularly turn to talk about Syria.
"We have asked our tribal sons to support the Syrian people ... they choose the way they find suitable," Sheikh Ali Hatem Sulaiman, the head of the powerful Dulaimi tribe, told Reuters in his Baghdad home.
"Why can Iran and Maliki support a criminal regime, while it is taboo for us to support the Syrian people?"
SOME CAUTION TOO
Anbar's relationship with Baghdad is complex. After initially joining the insurgency against U.S. forces, Sunni tribal leaders turned against al Qaeda and helped form the "Awakening" movement, a loose coalition of fighters who helped turn the tide of the war in 2007.
Tribal leaders say Maliki has failed to keep a promise to incorporate Awakening fighters into the national security forces.
Still, some Anbar leaders believe they must work with Maliki's government or risk losing political influence, and are more cautious about how much to help the Syrian rebels.
"Historically no one has been able to control our borders with Syria," said Anbar governor Qassim Mohammed, who says his frequent disagreements with Maliki over development projects for the province do not stop him working with Baghdad.
"But on the ground, there is no serious military aid going to Syria, there is some humanitarian aid, like medicine and food."
Other tribal leaders reject calls for the province to send arms to their Syrian brethren, remembering the darker days of Iraq's conflict when insurgents used Syria as a base to send suicide bombers into Iraq.
"We just have to watch out for the what kind of evil comes back across," said Sheikh Hameed Turki al-Shook, who heads a tribal council in the provincial capital Ramadi.
POROUS BORDER, GUN SMUGGLING
Arms dealers and Iraqi security officials say prices for Kalashnikovs, sniper rifles and pistols in Iraq have multiplied as much as four times with the growing demand from Syria.
Anbar borders not only Syria but also Saudi Arabia and Jordan, and its remote hillsides, hidden caves and tracks have made the province a haven for smugglers for generations. Contraband even makes its way on barges along the Euphrates river flowing between Iraq and Syria.
"It is not a secret. Demand for weapons started since the Syrian uprising began, and weapons were sent to Anbar and Mosul on their way to Syria," said Qassim, an arms dealer, told Reuters in Baghdad, puffing on a cigarette.
"We know it is going to Syria, we were trying to help them. Our theory is, we should support our Muslim brothers with money and weapons."
National police intelligence reports that indicate Sunni provinces in Iraq are stockpiling weapons for a flare-up in sectarian violence recently prompted four leading Shi'ite religious leaders to issue an edict forbidding arms shipments out of Shi'ite areas.
One senior Iraqi police official said authorities believe young Syrians who took refuge with relatives in Iraq at the beginning of the uprising are being organized and trained inside Iraq to prepare them for the post-Assad era.
That is a change that cannot come soon enough for many in Anbar.
"We will be stronger. Stronger to face to the east, to face the government in Baghdad," said Sheikh Adnan Khames, a Sunni chieftain in Ramadi. "For years they have given us little of what we are entitled to."
3 Syrian tanks have entered the demilitarized zone in the Golan.
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And for those interested in Nukliyaar weapons
Turkey and Tactical Nuclear Weapons: A Political Love Affair
Apparently the Israeli's are telling the west - KSA will go nuclear "within weeks" of Iran conducting a test. Turkey will follow within a year.
Enjoy reading....
Aahh yes lets stereotype everybody and also you can't even reply about the topic I even spoke about but instead make comments about the person. Unfortunately I am not going to stoop to your level.
Do you know that this type of intel speculation that you indulge in is actually good fodder to laugh about among those whose profession it is to analyze such claims?
