csharma wrote:I see. Most likely India will use the latest move as a negotiation tactic. But hard to see China agreeing to status quo ante after all this drama.
I also find it hard that India will agree to status quo after this drama because there is a breakdown of trust.
Status quo could mean "Lets step back 5km from the LAC as it existed Jan 1, 2020". But then SDREs would be like "Okay, you shredded every border management protocol that we've agreed to, we will sit on the heights at LAC and wont cross it". Which is a sensible position to take. But then that position will be unacceptable to Cheen.
I dont see an easy way out.
I think the basic fiasco started because someone high up in cheen decided that they have to 100% secure LAC against India and make sure India is no longer a threat before they go and attend to real kinetic threats on their east. They probably thought that they can show up with overwhelming force, realign LAC so they sit in the heights (remember Galwan problem started because they had a camp inside the LAC overlooking DBSO). And SDREs will dhoti shiver and let the salami slicing go, because we worship in small dark places.
But then just like how Pakis deluded themselves at Kargil (Pakis thought SDREs will look at TFTAs sitting on top of mountains and then give up and go back to worshipping in small dark places), the opposite happened. On top of that there is a trust deficit now and all border management has been shredded.
I dont know what the realistic end game is. (Yea yea, I know all the Jingos here talk about driving into tibet on T90s): China does not want to lose face, they dont want SDREs to walk in, SDREs have shown a willingness to walk in. SDREs wont agree to "status quo ante" because they dont trust cheen anymore.