Nuclear Discussion - Nukkad Thread

Rye · Post by **Rye** » 21 Sep 2007 22:57

Sanjaya Baru's stupid statement that "123 was just a matter of changing the wording" now takes on a whole new meaning....MMS and Co.'s intent is to lie, cheat and use US assistance to reword the deal so that it is sellable to the public, while agreeing to the underlying substance of the deal, which runs counter to MMS's promise to the parliament. No wonder MMS does not want to come clean in parliament -- worms in lentils and much more...in the new improved US-manufactured UPA administration.

And what do you know, the Rupee is "very strong against the dollar today"... clearly a portent of all the freedom from disease and poverty that the nuke deal will bring us..reminds one of the 45% growth pakistan had for 2 days last year.

http://www.thehindu.com/2007/09/21/stor ... 500100.htm

ramdas · Post by **ramdas** » 21 Sep 2007 23:18

wonder what those who dismissed oppontnents to the deal as "energizer bunnies" have to say now... nuke-nudeness is a foregone conclusion if this desl progresses

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 21 Sep 2007 23:39

Rye wrote:Sanjaya Baru's stupid statement that "123 was just a matter of changing the wording" now takes on a whole new meaning....MMS and Co.'s intent is to lie, cheat and use US assistance to reword the deal so that it is sellable to the public, while agreeing to the underlying substance of the deal, which runs counter to MMS's promise to the parliament. No wonder MMS does not want to come clean in parliament -- worms in lentils and much more...in the new improved US-manufactured UPA administration.

And what do you know, the Rupee is "very strong against the dollar today"... clearly a portent of all the freedom from disease and poverty that the nuke deal will bring us..reminds one of the 45% growth pakistan had for 2 days last year.

http://www.thehindu.com/2007/09/21/stor ... 500100.htm

Spin master have reached in the peak in India now

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 22 Sep 2007 00:19

ramdas wrote:wonder what those who dismissed oppontnents to the deal as "energizer bunnies" have to say now... nuke-nudeness is a foregone conclusion if this desl progresses

Let us concentrate on the messages rather than the messengers. It is one of a rarity on the BR that this deal has taken a complete U turn in terms of discussions here.

Lot of us are like the character "Amatya Rakshas" in the Chanakya story.

If the reasons for the folks who took U turn from pro-deal to anti-deal are true even by 10% then it is really troubling times for India strategically and its role in the big game.

On the other hand, irrespective of good deal or bad deal, this deal is going to be implemented based on the indications. US is moving fast to get the deal clinched and Left is toeing the UPA line. The hurdles are being removed one by one swiftly and I see we are going to sign no matter what.

Rye · Post by **Rye** » 22 Sep 2007 00:38

Mupalla wrote:

On the other hand, irrespective of good deal or bad deal, this deal is going to be implemented based on the indications. US is moving fast to get the deal clinched and Left is toeing the UPA line. The hurdles are being removed one by one swiftly and I see we are going to sign no matter what.

I am not sure there is any psy-ops going on here....the glaring fact is that Manmohan Singh has taken a lot of decisions without involving the rest of the government -- he is not allowed to sign away India's deterrence by Executive Fiat. That is simply unacceptable, but he and his corrupt bunch probably have to render services no matter what.

The only reason for any Indian to do an U-turn is to consider the fact that MMS's actions since he came to power has been to obfuscate what he is signing up for --- can you tell me why the 123 text was NEVER released to a wider audience until a month ago....at which point, quite conveniently, the deal could no longer be "renegotiated".

The Govt. had every oppurtunity to walk away, and it kept pushing its "economic growth" line to the public -- speaking for myself, I trust that the PM and elected representatives will not compromise on whatever little weapons we do have. And if they do that, then that message has to be public --- who has been discussing India signing up for the CTBT in the past two years in the GoI? NO ONE.

Why? Do we really think the sharp cookies in charge did not know they were signing India up for the CTBT by making it part of the Hyde Act (which was again passed with the collusion of the GoI), and it is open knowledge that 123 agreements cannot override local laws, now or in the future. This is a sleight of hand that the Indian government should not be participating in, and yet MMS and Co. are lying to the public, and will not allow India to protect itself via local laws made explicit to third parties as to the consequences of their actions --- MMS will not do that, and that is a litmus test that he is not working for Indian interests.

pradeepe · Post by **pradeepe** » 22 Sep 2007 00:40

I dont buy into this U turn, 360 turn etc etc...

There never was an assumption that Unkil one day woke up and decided to pull India into the club. It was always upto us to figure out what Unkil was requiring out of the partnership and see if thats negotiable / workable. "Trust" that darned word - never should have been even uttered. Never. Those relying on trust in these matters are either senile or too naive.

But paralysis by fear is not the solution. The global system doesnt reward non-entities or non-players. Thats the reason, there has to be very vocal opposition to the deal within India. So that adequate safeguards get implemented and a suitable kavacham gets ironed out for dealing with the world. It was sad that the valid arguments against the deal got blunted by the commie opposition taking a similar stand albeit for treacherous reasons.

What was even more suprising is that the already muddled field got even murkier when hidden skeletons started falling out - the IM bargain (there was something there - you could sense it in the angst of MJA and SM) still bewilders me.

Rye · Post by **Rye** » 22 Sep 2007 00:46

There never was an assumption that Unkil one day woke up and decided to pull India into the club. It was always upto us to figure out what Unkil was requiring out of the partnership and see if thats negotiable / workable. "Trust" that darned word - never should have been even uttered. Never. Those relying on trust in these matters are either senile or too naive.

Right, and the people pushing the deal have nothing but trust to offer in India's defense..

But paralysis by fear is not the solution. The global system doesnt reward non-entities or non-players. Thats the reason, there has to be very vocal opposition to the deal within India. So that adequate safeguards get implemented and a suitable kavacham gets ironed out for dealing with the world. It was sad that the valid arguments against the deal got blunted by the commie opposition taking a similar stand albeit for treacherous reasons.

The problem is that once the deal is "operationalised", all the "backout clauses" etc. will not matter, unless India altogether stops negotiating with the various NSG countries.

The US hustle to get India signed up for the deal is a scam -- there is no need to sign this up during Bush's tenure -- if Bush was so worried about it, he would have asked the Republican congress to consider the Hyde Act 8 months before when it actually was (by the Democrats). Now, the US is pretending that "time is running out", and the corrupt scum on the Indian side are lying to us and getting us signed up for treaties that we have been avoiding for decades.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 22 Sep 2007 00:51

What is there to be bewildered? The IM demanded and got a bargain. Bewildering is because one doesnt think they can and have interests. the old saying is "Just because you are paranoid doesnt mean there is nobody out to get you!"

Typical Indian and Hindu outlook that just because they have no evil intentions others also dont have them.

Wake up and smell the kapi.

pradeepe · Post by **pradeepe** » 22 Sep 2007 00:53

The US hustle to get India signed up for the deal is a scam -- there is no need to sign this up during Bush's tenure -- if Bush was so worried about it, he would have asked the Republican congress to consider the Hyde Act 8 months before when it actually was (by the Democrats). Now, the US is pretending that "time is running out", and the corrupt scum on the Indian side are lying to us and getting us signed up for treaties that we have been avoiding for decades.

Oh I agree. This one needs to go down the way of needing things "xeroxed" and signed in triplicate - down to the clerk in babuland. This is one game we have mastered, I hope we dont slip up on it, when we actually need it.

These "limited time offers" always break me up.

pradeepe · Post by **pradeepe** » 22 Sep 2007 01:06

ramana wrote:What is there to be bewildered? The IM demanded and got a bargain. Bewildering is because one doesnt think they can and have interests. the old saying is "Just because you are paranoid doesnt mean there is nobody out to get you!"

Typical Indian and Hindu outlook that just because they have no evil intentions others also dont have them.

Wake up and smell the kapi.

Agree. I was being naive. Not as much by the arrangements, but that it was couched to such an extent. Who knows how deep it is...

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 22 Sep 2007 01:13

No dont take it to heart. I started out being a sceptic. But then I read the history of Islamic fundamentalism in India and the role of IM in Ibn Saud taking the title of custodian etc and realized its quite deep.

There is a lot that is not written but has to be inferred in Modern History. The INC secularism is not ment to hurt the Hindus but to assuage the IM that they wont be victimised.
Then the DIE took it over to beat in Modernism into India and saw it as votebank politics.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 22 Sep 2007 01:20

FWIW
China tells Indian communists that India-US nuke deal is fine - the shames communists now say ''Indo-US civil nuclear deal is for nuclear energy''

Rye · Post by **Rye** » 22 Sep 2007 01:24

http://www.indiadaily.com/editorial/18282.asp

RAW is infested with spies - CBI on Friday raided the home of a former Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) official, Maj Gen (Retd) V K Singh

Now, the congresswallahs are showing their true colours. RAW is now suddenly infested with spies.

So what all has MMS and Co. revealed to the US about India's nuke deterrent program? Stephen Cohen's statement that a new test would "change the ground situation" seems to indicate that MMS and Co. have spilt all the beans to the US, which knows exactly what our capabilities are now...should be easier for them to shut it down now, if we let them anywhere near us.

Also, why was wajahat Habibullah, who was sent to DC to "study the kashmir problem", put in charge of the Central Information Commission? What's up with WH?

Manmohan Singh knows that Richard Boucher really cares about Indian children doing their homework:

Emphasising that the Indo-US deal is in the interest of both the countries, Richard Boucher, the top official in charge of South and Central Asia, hoped that "they will go through this (debate) and continue towards implementation".

"The whole goal here is Indian kids can turn on the lights to do their homework. The sooner we get there, the sooner they are going to be able to turn on their lights."

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 22 Sep 2007 02:12

Rye you are getting alarmist! If they revealed Indian capabilities that is so much the better. Hain na? I always thought that Rabinder Singh was used to send info to unkil about India's capablities and that was used for the J18 input.

Meanwhile Seema bhen takes on Sibal in Deccan Chronicle, 22 Sept 2007

Sibalâ€™s 123
By Seema Mustafa

Union minister for science and technology, Kapil Sibal, is the new man on the block. He has emerged as the governmentâ€™s legal expert on the civilian nuclear energy deal, although his arguments are not going to win him many clients. There is less of substance and more of courtroom dramatics in his presentation: the emphatic public school speech, the expressive raising of eyebrows ("Are they all stupid?"), the strong and even seemingly passionate rhetoric.

The governmentâ€™s argument in recent weeks has shifted from the "scientific" to the "legal." Atomic Energy Commission chief Anil Kakodkar has not been inclined to challenge the strong arguments presented by many of his former colleagues, and while deciding to stick with the nuclear deal, he is clearly not interested in joining issue with many of the arguments he probably agrees with. So now the focus Ã la Sibal has shifted to the ridiculous where the government has been placed in the unhappy situation of interpreting and peddling US law for India.

The thrust of the Sibal defence of the deal is that the Hyde Act is irrelevant, or rather, has been made irrelevant by the 123 Agreement that is now the last word on the nuclear deal in US law. To be fair to his Congress colleagues, not many are parroting this with the zeal of new converts. And he keeps saying this, even though US state department officials keep denying it by insisting that the Hyde Act is important, that the 123 Agreement is in conformity with the Hyde Act, that they have ensured that not a single provision of the Hyde Act has been violated, etc., etc. So we now have a position where the Indian government, or rather some of its apologists for the deal, know more about the US law and the US Congress than the state department and the Congressmen themselves!

US assistant secretary of state Richard Boucher was asked by reporters only a couple of days ago whether the Hyde Act was overwritten by the 123 Agreement. Clearly aware of the Indian argument, and not willing to make it more difficult for the government at home, the embarrassed official kept evading the question but at one point let go to say that this was a "meaningless statement" and the 123 Agreement was in full conformity with the Hyde Act. The Indian government of course wants to wish the Hyde Act away, there is no mention of it in government briefings, and now the legal expert is out in the field insisting that the 123 Agreement is supreme and the US Congress in that sense wasted its time in getting together the detailed document, as the technical bilateral agreement completely negates its provisions. One will have to wait and see what the US Congressmen have to say about this!

To take Mr Sibal at his word, for that one short moment, and accept that the 123 Agreement has wiped out the Hyde Act. So what are the implications? One, there is no need now for the US President to annually certify that India is fulfilling all the stated requirements, and report back to the US Congress. As this is not mentioned in the 123 Agreement, only in the Hyde Act where pages have been devoted by the US Congress in elaborating this provision. Two, India retains its right to test as again the 123 Agreement is silent on this, although it carries a termination clause. But then, if Sibalâ€™s argument is carried to its logical conclusion, then India can go right ahead and test as many times as it wants without inviting any US censure. Three, there is no mention of foreign policy and Iran in the 123 Agreement. So New Delhi can now go ahead to embrace Iran, finalise the gas pipeline and step up the military relations with Tehran if not right now then definitely after the 123 Agreement is signed and sealed. Is Sibal serious? Is the government serious? One wonders what the poor Americans are thinking, dealing with such an amazing partner all set to make a strategic alliance out of falsehoods, half truths, delusions, illusions and what have you. One does not know whether to criticise the US or commiserate with it in the present situation.

For a Sibal unleashed is clearly a formidable entity, friend or foe is now for Washington to determine. Particularly, after the Bush administration is asked to respond to the US Congress about the Indian propaganda that its legislation has been overturned by a bilateral agreement, and that Congressmen have no authority left now to intervene in the working of the pact with India.

Democrats have recently pointed out that if the nuclear deal, that has admittedly bipartisan support in Washington, does not come through in the life of the Bush administration it will be little more than a "hiccup" in India-US relations. This again effectively contradicts the doomsday pictures being presented by New Delhi and of course its legal expert, that India cannot afford to renege on an international treaty without serious consequences, and without losing its face in the world. Strange, because the Democrats and probably most of the Republicans do not think so, if the comments by the Democratic representative can be taken as any indication of this. In fact, they will be secretly surprised if the government ignores the majority opinion at home and goes ahead with a clearly unpopular deal to please President George W. Bush. Particularly when it has no need to do so, as the Democrats are not huffing and puffing for a deal as yet, and elections are around the corner.

In a parliamentary democracy, Parliament is the most important institution. For those who fought for Indiaâ€™s independence and sovereignty, parliamentary democracy was the most cherished institution to be preserved and strengthened. It was thus decided that the Prime Minister of India would be from the Lok Sabha, in that he or she would be directly elected by the people of India and would thus be accountable to Parliament and through it to the people. It was also decided that the executive would respect the will of Parliament, and while the Constitution did not provide for the ratification of international treaties by Parliament it was understood that the Prime Minister would take the will of Parliament into account when entering into agreements with other countries. The last example of the executive bowing to Parliamentâ€™s will can be found during the NDA government when Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee despite pressure from his advisers and his party, decided not to send Indian troops to Iraq.

It is therefore a matter of deep regret that the government, aided by legal experts like Sibal who one had thought would know better, has decided to ignore the will of the people of India and accept the will of President Bush. That it is willing to sacrifice the government for an ill conceived treaty that has been strongly opposed by the majority of political parties in Parliament; that it has refused to take cognisance of the strong points offered in writing by the Left, by the BJP and even by the regional parties; that it is refusing to wait even for six months to allow Parliament to debate and discuss the nuclear deal in its entirety; that it is prepared to subvert the pillars of Indian democracy and rush into a deal according to a timetable set out by the Bush administration without stopping to even debate the impact that the strategic alliance with the US will have on India and the region; that it is doing all this and more under the shroud of secrecy, refusing to take the people of India into confidence about the reasons for the hurry, and the reasons why democratic will is being completely disregarded.

Every day brings with it a new demand or a reiteration of the old from the US. To put together a quick list of the doâ€™s and donâ€™ts for India: do not test; complete the nuclear deal formalities by the end of this year; do not support Iran; join the Proliferation Security Initiative; join the Quadrilateral; participate in military exercises; accept our friends and oppose our foes; bring our multinationals into retail; import our wheat and seeds; buy our aircraft and weapons.

The last word then has to go to Richard Boucher who one has started trusting more and more, and not to Kapil Sibal: the 123 Agreement is in total conformity with the Hyde Act.

Lucky for Sibal that she isnt in the Lok Sabha. An unelected and unelectable PM what respect does he have for Parlimentary traditions? Hope he has ended the Indian fascination for bureaucrats to rule. He is uncorruptable but can he govern?

Rye · Post by **Rye** » 22 Sep 2007 02:28

Rupee strongest against Dollar in a decade

Arre yaar, Manmohan Singh has truly made India shine -- Rupee is now so strong against the Dollar, thanks to this wizard of an economist from Poxford. Just imagine, 12% growth year after year for 50 years, India will be a super-duper-power colonizing mars to place the extra Indians on Earth, and we can make all the Indian school children sing songs in praise of Bush and Rice and how they made India a "great power".

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 22 Sep 2007 03:02

One person I know who is retired from GOI 20 years ago was praising MMS saying that MMS took a middle path and single handedly made the deal successful. The psy ops is complete and has been brilliant.

Tilak · Post by **Tilak** » 22 Sep 2007 07:16

BJP, Left oppn to N-deal laughable: US lawmaker
Aziz Haniffa in Washington
September 20, 2007 09:52 IST

Congressman Frank Pallone, the founder and former co-chair of the Congressional Caucus on India and Indian Americans -- the largest country caucus in the US Congress--has said that no political party in India will be able to win the election on an anti-US platform because "Indians love America."

Pallone was speaking at the Congressional reception and dinner on Capitol Hill hosted by the Asian American Hotel Owners Association. The lawmaker admitted that he had burst out laughing after reading an article about how both the Left Front and the Bharatiya Janata Party were complaining that the Manmohan Singh [Images] government was too close to the United States.

"A couple of weeks ago, there was an article in The New York Times that was saying how the government of India--which if course, is primarily the Congress Party--was being criticised for being too close to the United States by both the Left wing as well as the BJP."

Pallone recalled, "I laughed when I read it because I said, 'Well, that won't last,' because anybody who thinks that they are going to come to power --and this is my opinion and you may disagree with me--any opposition party on the Left or Right by bashing the United States, this simply won't happen."

His comment was greeted with loud and sustained applause from the audience. The lawmaker went on to add, "The reality is that Indians love the United States."

Pallone is a Democrat from New Jersey, and his constituency includes Edison, which reportedly has the third largest population of Indian-Americans in the United States.

He noted that "Every time you do a survey, you find that there is no major country where the people love the United States more than they do in India," he said.

"So, I read the article and I started laughing. I said, 'There is no way this is going to ever work because the relationship between our two countries has grown so much and a lot of it is really on a personal and cultural level," he added.

Pallone concluded by stating, "A lot of our relationship has been because of Indian- Americans like you bringing our two countries together in trade and all the economic and other ties that we have."

Didn't some US Govt offcial say ~ "India's priority is to provide electricity to lightbulbs for kids to ..." ?

Looks like, I'll have to get used to it .. But then Canuckistan dallah has gone ~past the greenback !!, as of yesterday.

Meanwhile :
Britain has plutonium for 17,000 Nagasaki bombs

London, Sept 21: Britain has amassed a stockpile of more than 100 metric tons of plutonium -- enough for 17,000 bombs of the size that flattened Japan's Nagasaki in 1945, a report from the country's top science institution said on Friday.

The toxic stockpile, which has doubled in the last decade, comes mainly from reprocessing of spent uranium fuel from the country's nuclear power plants, so to stop it growing the practice must end, the Royal Society said.

"There should be no more separation of plutonium once current contracts have been fulfilled," said the report "Strategy options for the UK's separated plutonium".

Plutonium, one of the most radiotoxic materials known, is produced when spent uranium fuel from power stations is reprocessed to retrieve reusable uranium.

It can be processed into mixed oxide (MOX) fuel but it can also be used in nuclear weapons and so poses a security threat.

"Just over six kilograms of plutonium was used in the bomb that devastated Nagasaki," said Geoffrey Boulton, the report's lead author. "We must take measures to ensure that this very dangerous material does not fall into the wrong hands."

Paradoxically, the Royal Society said the safest option was to leave spent fuel as it was when it came out of the reactor because it was so radioactive that it was far harder to handle.

The second best was to produce and burn MOX pellets and then leave them unreprocessed. "Spent fuel is more radioactive and therefore harder to handle than plutonium -- and more difficult to use in nuclear weapons because it would need to be reprocessed first," the report said.

Sanatanan · Post by **Sanatanan** » 22 Sep 2007 07:17

After Buddhadeb, Basu supports nuclear deal.

Paper panthers have gotten "educated".

Rahul Mehta · Post by **Rahul Mehta** » 22 Sep 2007 07:40

After Buddhadeb, Basu supports nuclear deal.[/size]

CIA money at work.

.

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 22 Sep 2007 09:06

ramana wrote: Lucky for Sibal that she isnt in the Lok Sabha. An unelected and unelectable PM what respect does he have for Parlimentary traditions? Hope he has ended the Indian fascination for bureaucrats to rule. He is uncorruptable but can he govern?

Thanks Ramana and Arun_S for taking the correct stand on this treacherous deal. IMO this has greatly restored credibility in BR. By the time I hit the submit button on previous thread, Shiv did his tandav by demonstrating his power on the thread.

On your above quote I wanted to say that the word corruption need not be based on monetary considerations. Corruption of hearts and minds are much more dangerous to the society and we are seeing the results of such corruption. MMS being incorruptible is total Pu.

Manny · Post by **Manny** » 22 Sep 2007 09:42

Rye wrote:http://publication.samachar.com/pub_art ... ?id=273658

India should diversify its arms purchases (and buy from the US), so that the US has greater leverage towards India's behaviour in the future, when the US is going to need a lot more US leverage to contain India and "balance" India and China.

No No... US should offer to sell F-22s to China and Pakistan ...so the US can contain Pakistan and China.

And this way...India can be the king of the hill!

Manny · Post by **Manny** » 22 Sep 2007 09:43

Rahul Mehta wrote:
After Buddhadeb, Basu supports nuclear deal.[/size]

CIA money at work.

.

Well..as long as its not Pakistan money or China money reaching those blokes .. I am ok with it!

Rye · Post by **Rye** » 22 Sep 2007 09:52

Manny wrote:

No No... US should offer to sell F-22s to China and Pakistan ...so the US can contain Pakistan and China.

Yes, and shortly afterwards the most powerful Chinese fighter aircraft Egfuyong 23.5 (which looks suspiciously like the F-22 and does the job half-right --- reaches the target and breaks down before the bomb leaves the chassis) will be the bird defending the rest of the planet. don't see how we can go wrong..

sraj · Post by **sraj** » 22 Sep 2007 18:29

America shows its might
- Deal or no deal, visa a headache
KP Nayar

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and US President George W. Bush may consider themselves nuclear buddies, but their enthusiasm about the 123 Agreement does not extend to Indian nuclear scientists.

M.R. Srinivasan, a member of Indiaâ€™s Atomic Energy Commission, could not chair a scheduled meeting in Washington last week focussing on the nuclear deal because the American embassy in New Delhi could not issue him a visa in time to travel to the US.

The episode involving Srinivasan has sent jitters through the Indian Embassy here because another nuclear scientist, R Chidambaram, the principal scientific adviser to the Prime Minister, is due here in less than 10 days.

Srinivasan said he had applied for a US visa on his diplomatic passport on August 23 with a â€œnote verbaleâ€

rocky · Post by **rocky** » 22 Sep 2007 19:06

Irrespective of what Sanjaya Baru says, just considering the fact that the text of the 123 agreement is being so wildly and publicly interpreted differently in both the countries by different officials and elected members - the standard recourse is to return to discussions and tighten the agreement so that only one interpretation remains.

The fact that more than a month after the deal text was disclosed to the public the "deviation in interpretation" is still so huge - makes one think that something more hanky panky is going on.

Is the 123 really a cover for something else?

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 22 Sep 2007 19:25

sraj wrote:Before he peddles visions of the gates of 'dual-use technology' opening, perhaps MMS can show that he has taken care of these little things.

This is a civilian nuclear agreement not a military nuclear agreement. The US is locked into a position both by its own laws as well as by its national commitments to various 3/4 letter treaties/organizations to continue to oppose military nuclear cooperation even inadvertently. One of the inadvertent conduits is by way of interaction of Indian scientists with the US nuclear establishment. From the US viewpoint given India's historically integrated nuclear program i.e. civilian + military, any Indian nuclear scientist has to be "specially screened" for visa approval.

I spoke to a retired head of a DRDO lab sometime ago and even though he is retired, his application for visas to travel to the West go through this "special and lengthy" screening process. He was hopeful of this process being eased after the formalizing of the 123 agreement although I fail to see how that can happen.

At best over a period of time, the employees of those entities that are not on the military side of the 123 separation plan will have greater ease for travel, but I doubt whether it will be a black and white thing i.e. the day the agreement is formalized travel suddenly becomes normal. IMO it will take time. As far as import of dual use items for those non military entities, I suspect that will be done quite quickly.

This agreement should be seen as nothing more than the ability for India to import the fuel that it needs and if it changes domestic laws, allow participation via capital and equity by private sector (both Indian as well as foreign) players in India's electricity generation sector.

Shankar · Post by **Shankar** » 22 Sep 2007 19:42

well -I did oppose the deal from day 1 too

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 22 Sep 2007 19:43

rocky wrote:Irrespective of what Sanjaya Baru says, just considering the fact that the text of the 123 agreement is being so wildly and publicly interpreted differently in both the countries by different officials and elected members - the standard recourse is to return to discussions and tighten the agreement so that only one interpretation remains.

NO! The deal was deliberately done to leave it open.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 22 Sep 2007 19:48

Yes its open ended so that it can be interpreted to suit the circumstances. It will be hunky dory if India plays ball otherwise the sword of Hyde(like Damocles) will be invoked.

So the way out is to become agile so that if the sword falls there is no one under the chair.

to become agile need to grow economically, socially and culturally. At same time develop deep ties so that there is no incentive to pull the plug.

rocky · Post by **rocky** » 22 Sep 2007 20:00

Yes, but therein lies the problem.

The separation into civil-military, the decomissioning of Cirus, and no-test clause (backdoor shitty-bitty) is basically another terminology for CAP. Which is far different from the self-imposed CAP on fissile material production and weaponization that the P5 are allegedly following.

In this circumstance, if there is no way out of the 123 agreement, then each of the P-5 should be made to sign the same 123, and separate all their facilities into civil and military with permanent safeguards.

I can't believe after that playing hardball for so many decades the babus cannot see this. Or see it but pretend to not have.

This makes it so easy for all the P-5 to gang up on India. Panipat and Hampi were lost because it was many against one.

sraj · Post by **sraj** » 22 Sep 2007 20:05

ldev wrote:

This is a civilian nuclear agreement not a military nuclear agreement.

Then perhaps you will agree that the references to India's test moratorium and to FMCT are wholly out of place in the draft US proposal circulated to NSG.

Shouldn't the NSG waiver limit itself to allowing export of trigger list items to safeguarded Indian civilan facilities so long as India adheres to the terms of the safeguards agreement it has concluded with IAEA, as approved by IAEA's Board?

This agreement should be seen as nothing more than the ability for India to import the fuel that it needs...........

If this is all we are getting, perhaps we should actively look at sourcing non-NSG Uranium from Niger, Namibia, Uzbekistan etc instead of getting embroiled in agreements that even today are being publicly interpreted very differently by officials of the two administrations which actually negotiated it!! This is a recipe for future trouble that can only have a negative impact on US-India relations, something that no one on either side wants.

Anil Kakodkar talked about exporting Indian PHWRs just a few days ago.

This GoI needs to show why 'Indian PHWRs + non-NSG Uranium' is a worse alternative than this Hyde/123 rigmarole!!

There are many ways to build a US-India partnership without Hyde/123!

Rye · Post by **Rye** » 22 Sep 2007 20:29

ldev wrote:

One of the inadvertent conduits is by way of interaction of Indian scientists with the US nuclear establishment. From the US viewpoint given India's historically integrated nuclear program i.e. civilian + military, any Indian nuclear scientist has to be "specially screened" for visa approval.

Why does this not contradict claims made by MMS admin that people can freely move between the civilian and military side? They clearly cannot, and if they cannot, why is that not dangerous to the local program?

This is an obvious scam job, with no benefits or upside...they are all a mirage. All the benefits will come once we have signed up for NPT and CTBT by other means.

The GoI seems ill-prepared to defend what's ours as it signs up for the "deal".

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 22 Sep 2007 20:35

sraj wrote:Then perhaps you will agree that the references to India's test moratorium and to FMCT are wholly out of place in the draft US proposal circulated to NSG.

As far as I can see, those references are not binding commitments being made by India. The very mention of those references and India's ability to negotiate them is nothing more than a reflection of India's bargaining strength as of today.

Shouldn't the NSG waiver limit itself to allowing export of trigger list items to safeguarded Indian civilan facilities so long as India adheres to the terms of the safeguards agreement it has concluded with IAEA, as approved by IAEA's Board?

One will have to wait and see the shape of the NSG waiver. But if its scope does not exceed that of the 123 clauses what is wrong with that position besides the reasons already stated?

If this is all we are getting, perhaps we should actively look at sourcing non-NSG Uranium from Niger, Namibia, Uzbekistan etc instead of getting embroiled in agreements

Whichever side of the political spectrum one argues for, the fact is that neither of the two political parties that have formed India's government since POK 2 have had any success on this front. So where do you go from there?

sraj, we are going around and around in circles repeating the same arguments over and over again. There are arguments based on fact and there are arguments based on whipping up emotion and H&D e.g. K.P. Nayar's article on visas for Indian scientists is based on whipping up perceived loss of H&D for Indian scientists. For those rational people who are opposed to this agreement, the fundamental issue is that they do not believe that nuclear generated electricity has a relevant role to play in any significant amount in India over the next 50 years. If you accept that premise then the 123 agreement does not make sense. However, if you believe in the contrary, then this agreement makes perfect sense.

And then there are those people who believe that POK 2 was less than a stellar success on the TN front and somehow this agreement ties India's hands in progressing on that front. Given that premise cannot be debated logically because of the lack of adequate open source information, proponents and opponents on that front are reduced to making suggestions of inneuendo.

And then ofcourse there are those who are only fishing in politically troubled waters!!.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 22 Sep 2007 20:37

Rocky Please carry on in Indian Interests thread as to Talikota as its important.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 23 Sep 2007 06:02

Thread rebooted to remove Indian Satur-raat and American Satur-din posts

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 23 Sep 2007 06:36

This thread seems destined for disruption for reasons that I would like to write about. But instead I will make some meta comments.

Before I deleted 43 posts from this thread it had a view count of 5142 for 157 posts, i.e. 32 views per post made

Compare this with 65 views per post for Kaushal's distorted history thread, 64 for Indian Interests, 71 for the PENIS thread and 53 for the Paki thread.

These figures lead me to the conclusion that this thread gets only a limited number of viewers. Many others are not checking this thread out despite a flurry of added posts. The few that do are fighting on this thread.

I am personally not convinced that this thread is doing anything other than serving as a boring eyesore. I have personally stopped reading most of the posts - especially the acrimonious ones.
My mind on the issue is made up and any changes in my attitude about this deal will not come from any posts on this thread.

I suspect that this is true for many others who visit this thread and everyone who does not view this thread, judging from its popularity. I feel there may be a lesson here for those who wish their views to be heard/read on this issue.

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 23 Sep 2007 07:16

Shiv:

Views per post does not speak entirely of the popularity. If you have a thread out there that stays in 5 to 6 pages, then obviously it will pick up views. Check out the ban list warning thread; its views/post is 240

Nuclear thread moves fast due to its burning nature and most articles coming out related to the topic and YET it picks up so many views. That speaks VOLUMES about its popularity.

If you have enough data check out how many unique users per post are and it will tell you real popularity.

JMTP.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 23 Sep 2007 08:24

Satya_anveshi wrote:Shiv:

Views per post does not speak entirely of the popularity. If you have a thread out there that stays in 5 to 6 pages, then obviously it will pick up views. Check out the ban list warning thread; its views/post is 240
Nuclear thread moves fast due to its burning nature and most articles coming out related to the topic and YET it picks up so many views. That speaks VOLUMES about its popularity.

If you have enough data check out how many unique users per post are and it will tell you real popularity.

JMTP.

Yes yes of course. My data analysis is neither perfect nor acceptable to all, but your post reveals exactly what the nuclear thread has been about. Everyone disagreeing with the next guy.

Except that it gets personal after a stage.

And one thing is 100 percent sure as far as I am concerned and my data analysis to me is perfect. This thread is a real put off and a bore.

Nobody's opinions are going to be heard with this kind of tamasha let alone changed.

JMO

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 23 Sep 2007 08:35

Rye:

I noticed that you are refering to the deal in quotes: "deal" as I have been doing. Also, you've been pretty vitriolic of late on MMS/Sonia, wonder why? The admins banned me in my previous avatar for exactly the same concerns you raise about MMS, namely, his desire to walk hand in hand with Mush down a red carpet in Stockholm Sweeden to a rousing reception from the white knights for a job well done.

Rye · Post by **Rye** » 23 Sep 2007 09:43

CRamS, I think I don't really give a **** anymore. Manmohan singh can sign the deal and the rest can live with the consequences. Enough already.