2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 16 Mar 2011 06:07

Forgive me for oversimplifying it, but is it just a matter of (in future) moving the diesel backups to a safe location or higher ground? And perhaps do the same with battery backup? Because it is not the quake but the tsunami that has done the damage by knocking off the diesel gensets that started the chain reaction oops sorry that is not the appropriate word..

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 16 Mar 2011 06:22

Was just thinking...the Japs are so 'clean' they even wipe pens with tissue before (and sometimes after) passing to another to avoid infection...wondering how it hits their psyche and pretty sure this impact is going to be long term, may even change their outlook towards life in general.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 16 Mar 2011 06:28

ramana wrote:What food items does India import from Japan?

Ramana that is an interesting point but in the supermarket I worry more about products that have Chinese characters on the label.

Chances are that the Japanese actually care about quality.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 16 Mar 2011 06:50

Aftershocks prompt fears of a major quake near Tokyo

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 16 Mar 2011 07:10

NYTimes story ..
Last Defense at Troubled Reactors: 50 Japanese Workers

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 16 Mar 2011 07:27

Amber G. wrote:NYTimes story ..
Last Defense at Troubled Reactors: 50 Japanese Workers

Sorry to go OT, but here is something I noticed in the article that has a bearing on how readers of American media are conditioned to think of others - in this case the FSU. The USSR of course was the bad guy who would conduct suicide attacks on the US which is why his bombers could fly to the US but did not have the range to fly back. The cold war got over 2 decades ago and still - we have this little gem in the above article: See the text in red

Among plant employees and firefighters at Chernobyl, many volunteered to try to tame, and then entomb, the burning reactor — although it is not clear that all were told the truth about the risks.

That was an unnecessary pot-shot at the USSR of 1986 - an entity that does not even exist now in an article that is talking about heroism and sacrifice in an ongoing nuclear accident. The media play a huge role in shaping and perpetuating stereotypes in a way that is seen in other threads as blowbacks on India. If you have surgery in the US and sign consent are you told clearly that you may die or be permanently incapacitated in some way? If not it means that "it is not clear that you are told the truth about the risks"

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 16 Mar 2011 07:36

japan has lot of old people. its probably cheaper to live in retirement in smaller towns than big cities like tokyo or osaka. medical care should not be a problem even in smaller towns there.
a lot of victims in washed away homes were likely old people who were unable to move far in the short time available.

their avg life expectancy is highest in world @ 79 yrs. which means there's lots of people in 80s and 90s.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 16 Mar 2011 07:41

ramana wrote:I agree there will be cap for sometime. Good till atleast MMS sees reason and can stall US pressure to buy their wares.

The consensus is India is free of that obligation to buy those plants as there are concerns. Only MUTU guys are pushing for it in NRI circles.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 16 Mar 2011 07:51

Shivji - you are right about ..("The media play a huge role in shaping and perpetuating stereotypes") and I would be last to defend NYT's annoying habit, but in this particular case it is, IMO, being kind to those who were in charge of Chernobyl.

I suggest every one should read up on what exactly went wrong at Chernobyl (any good source would do).. I remember the incident very well.. USSR did not even tell about the accident for days (Sweden found it out when radiation level rose in Europe). The fire fighters were not told about the radiation danger (almost all died, if expert advise was given they could have taken some precautions - such as spending as little time as possible -) .. and whole disaster started when a bad "experiment" (which no one should be able to run - ironically they were trying to test if they lost power would their backup cooling system will start) went horribly wrong when mistakes after mistakes were made.

Bethe (Noble prize physicist who was big shot at Manhattan project and was prof at Cornell then) said that the accident taught us very little about nuclear safety issues ...only about bad administration.. ( I think, anyone who reads the details of the mistakes after mistakes made there would agree)

suryag · Post by **suryag** » 16 Mar 2011 07:55

Guys how are the workers at the plant fighting the problems there protected. Do they wear lead suits ?

Chernobyl is so popular now, CNN is making it famous. Apparently the last 50 workers suspended operations.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 16 Mar 2011 07:59

Amber G. wrote:Shivji - you are right about ..("The media play a huge role in shaping and perpetuating stereotypes") and I would be last to defend NYT's annoying habit, but in this particular case it is, IMO, being kind to those who were in charge of Chernobyl.

I suggest every one should read up on what exactly went wrong at Chernobyl (any good source would do).. I remember the incident very well.. USSR did not even tell about the accident for days (Sweden found it out when radiation level rose in Europe). The fire fighters were not told about the radiation danger (almost all died, if expert advise was given they could have taken some precautions - such as spending as little time as possible -) .. and whole disaster started when a bad "experiment" (which no one should be able to run - ironically they were trying to test if they lost power would their backup cooling system will start) went horribly wrong when mistakes after mistakes were made.

Bethe (Noble prize physicist who was big shot at Manhattan project and was prof at Cornell then) said that the accident taught us very little about nuclear safety issues ...only about bad administration.. ( I think, anyone who reads the details of the mistakes after mistakes made there would agree)

Ok Thanks. I stand corrected.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 16 Mar 2011 08:02

^^^ Mainly by wearing radiation tags to measure radiation and spending as little time in bad place as possible. (keep the total radiation less than 250 mSv - new people would come if needed). (Breathing masks, and being fully covered keep the radioactive particles out)

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 16 Mar 2011 08:15

On the topic of nuclear plant design and earthquakes I asked my unkal Googal about the last century's most powerful earthquakes and got this list

http://www.good.is/post/the-10-largest- ... t-century/

1. Valdivia, Chile, May 22, 1960: 9.5
2. Prince William Sound, Alaska. March 28, 1964: 9.2
3. The west coast of Northern Sumatra, Indonesia, December 26, 2004: 9.1
4. Kamchatka, Russia, November 5, 1952: 9.0
5. Off the coast of Ecuador, January 31, 1906: 8.8
6. Rat Islands, Alaska, February 4, 1965: 8.7
7. Northern Sumatra, Indonesia, March 28, 2005: 8.7
8. Assam, Tibet, August 15, 1950: 8.6
9. Andreanof Islands Alaska, March 9, 1957: 8.6
10. Southern Sumatra, Indonesia, September 12, 2007: 8.5

To me this shows 2 things
1. The Kamchatka-Alaska-Indonesia axis and the US/South America West coast where faults lie have been the worst sufferers
2) An 8.9 earthquake is not that uncommon.

Obviously, a nuclear plant should be a strict no-no in a known seismic zone.

Can you really design any nuclear plant to withstand a 9 scale earthquake? Is any part of Japan safe for reactors?

Dhiman · Post by **Dhiman** » 16 Mar 2011 08:23

Purush wrote:Now we have self-styled 'experts' expertly inserting their feet in their mouth...

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 708194.cms

...
"There is no nuclear accident or incident in Japan's Fukushima plants. It is a well planned emergency preparedness programme which the nuclear operators of the Tokyo Electric Power Company are carrying out to contain the residual heat after the plants had an automatic shutdown following a major earthquake," said S K Jain, the Chairman and Managing Director of Nuclear Power Corporation. (WTF is this guy smoking?)

I thought Sibal's comment regarding there being no 2g scam was the stupidest statement of the year, but this one takes the cake by a wide margin. What is surprising here is not the idiotic comments (as there is no dearth of idiots willing to make such idiotic comments), but the fact that Nuclear Power Corporation is being lead by an idiot unable to apply common sense (something that is becoming exponentially rarer within GoI).

My heart goes out to Japanese people. Hopefully safe conditions will prevail for the population around the plant.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 16 Mar 2011 09:06

Suppiah this is what is called a "system accident". Prof Charles Perrow wrote a book on "Theory of normal accidents". Try to google and buy the book. A medical doctor has distilled the lessons and made i simple to understand. will locate my cache and post it.

A system accident needs a complex system
It needs a closely coupled system that is a fault at one place shows its effects some where else.
Third and most important log periods of no issues leads to complacency.

In this case no one postulated a tsunami wiping out the emergency power systems and subsequent loss of coolant and potential meltdown.

I don't think multiple incidents are mostly postulated with single event probability. I mean prob of a 9.0 eqk is very low. Probability of a major tsunami from that is even lower. And the probability of both occurring simultaneously is extremely low. Yet it happened.

That is why in modern risk management the likelihood is coupled with consequences. So high consequence events with even with very low probability are mitigated. In olden days only likelihood was considered.

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Watched the CNN idiot Cooper. I think CNN is doing its best to whip up fears. The show was one hour long yet the guests speak in rapid fire sequence as if they are in hurry to evacuate even if they are located in NYC!

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AmberG, Recall the Jane Fonda movie China Syndrome of late 70s? Thats what this crisis is like.
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The reactor 3 & 4 are the ones with hydrogen explosion.

The yellow fires mean its not hydrogen. Could be oil fires. Not same significance.
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Hats of to the Japanese people for being so calm and composed despite many chances to get riled up.
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ramana · Post by **ramana** » 16 Mar 2011 09:11

Walt Patterson, Fellow of Chatham House London was saying there will be world wide rethink on Nuke Power.

so there is movement in big circles.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 16 Mar 2011 09:13

The scariest earthquake is yet to come

Now there have been catastrophic events at three corners of the Pacific Plate—one in the northwest, on Friday; one in the southwest, last month; one in the southeast, last year.

That leaves just one corner unaffected—the northeast. And the fault line in the northeast of the Pacific Plate is the San Andreas Fault, underpinning the city of San Francisco.

Klaus · Post by **Klaus** » 16 Mar 2011 09:24

ramana wrote: Watched the CNN idiot Cooper. I think CNN is doing its best to whip up fears. The show was one hour long yet the guests speak in rapid fire sequence as if they are in hurry to evacuate even if they are located in NYC!

This is why CNN is also known as 'Constantly Negative News'.

BTW, thanks for clarifying that the French wouldnt touch a Boiling Water reactor with a barge pole since they specialize with Pressurised Water Reactors only. Only a person from the industry could've known that.

Was there any dredging or land reclamation work done near the reactor? I am trying to find out whether the Japs tried to construct some kind of a sea-wall or a shore embankment, or were completely oblivious to the threat.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 16 Mar 2011 09:35

The Japanese have built a sea wall to ward of normal tsunami waves. This one was a biggie.

One day will tell you what all I have done for roz ka roti! All engineering not to worry.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 16 Mar 2011 09:42

Ramana - Yes, I saw the movie (China Syndrome).. Interesting part was it was released just a few weeks (days ?) before Three Mile accident.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 16 Mar 2011 09:48

shiv wrote:Can you really design any nuclear plant to withstand a 9 scale earthquake? Is any part of Japan safe for reactors?

No you cant, especially dangerous, questionable LWR, BWR types. However considering that TEPCO in the past has shown that "you dont need to know bad news" is sufficient protection, we see the mind set which leads to such accidents.

merlin · Post by **merlin** » 16 Mar 2011 09:57

ramana wrote:Walt Patterson, Fellow of Chatham House London was saying there will be world wide rethink on Nuke Power.

so there is movement in big circles.

Non-proliferation by other means (whipping up public opinion especially in "problem" countries that nuclear power is dangerous).

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 16 Mar 2011 09:58

ramana wrote: I don't think multiple incidents are mostly postulated with single event probability. I mean prob of a 9.0 eqk is very low. Probability of a major tsunami from that is even lower. And the probability of both occurring simultaneously is extremely low. Yet it happened.

Ramana I am sure that this was the logic used to declare that those reactors were safe, but 8.0 plus earthquakes and Tsunamis are not that uncommon and seem to occur as frequently as one in 10-15 years. So a reactor in a coastal seismic zone would have a 100% probability of facing at least one major earthquake and/or Tsunami in a 40 year lifespan.

List of major Tsunamis: 100 years
http://www.livescience.com/3731-tsunamis-history.html

April 1, 1946: The April Fools tsunami, triggered by an earthquake in Alaska, killed 159 people, mostly in Hawaii.

July 9, 1958: Regarded as the largest recorded in modern times, the tsunami in Lituya Bay, Alaska was caused by a landslide triggered by an 8.3 magnitude earthquake. Waves reached a height of 1,720 feet (576 meters) in the bay, but because the area is relatively isolated and in a unique geologic setting the tsunami did not cause much damage elsewhere. It sank a single boat, killing two fishermen.

May 22, 1960: The largest recorded earthquake, magnitude 8.6 in Chile, created a tsunami that hit the Chilean coast within 15 minutes. The surge, up to 75 feet (25 meters) high, killed an estimated 1,500 people in Chile and Hawaii.

March 27, 1964: The Alaskan Good Friday earthquake, magnitude between 8.4, spawned a 201-foot (67-meter) tsunami in the Valdez Inlet. It traveled at over 400 mph, killing more than 120 people. Ten of the deaths occurred in Crescent City, in northern California, which saw waves as high as 20 feet (6.3 meters).

Aug. 23, 1976: A tsunami in the southwest Philippines killed 8,000 on the heels of an earthquake.

July 17, 1998: A magnitude 7.1 earthquake generated a tsunami in Papua New Guinea that quickly killed 2,200.

Dec. 26, 2004: A colossal earthquake with a magnitude between 9.1 and 9.3 shook Indonesia and killed an estimated 230,000 people, most due to the tsunami and the lack of aid afterward, coupled with deviating and unsanitary conditions. The quake was named the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake, and the tsunami has become known as the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Those waves traveled the globe – as far as Nova Scotia and Peru.

List of major Earthquakes (8.0 plus)

http://www.good.is/post/the-10-largest- ... t-century/

1. Valdivia, Chile, May 22, 1960: 9.5

2. Prince William Sound, Alaska. March 28, 1964: 9.2

3. The west coast of Northern Sumatra, Indonesia, December 26, 2004: 9.1

4. Kamchatka, Russia, November 5, 1952: 9.0

5. Off the coast of Ecuador, January 31, 1906: 8.8

6. Rat Islands, Alaska, February 4, 1965: 8.7

7. Northern Sumatra, Indonesia, March 28, 2005: 8.7

8. Assam, Tibet, August 15, 1950: 8.6

9. Andreanof Islands Alaska, March 9, 1957: 8.6

10. Southern Sumatra, Indonesia, September 12, 2007: 8.5

Japan should not have nuclear reactors?

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 16 Mar 2011 10:01

shiv wrote: Japan should not have nuclear reactors?

Not unless they think committing harakiri for no particular purpose is a very honorable thing.

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 16 Mar 2011 10:05

Ramana, interesting comment...shall look it up.

Coming to think of it, the sources of power to keep the pumps running were not just the diesel + battery, it is also rest of grid. Look like that got knocked out too...which means 3 levels of backups all gone. Unless of course, the pumps were only connected to own generated electricity not grid. Wikipedia says these pumps require enormous power, 6MW (yes, that is MW) each which probably means they did not feed the power from elsewhere but from internal? Incidentally they had 8 hrs of battery unlike 4 in US as per reports.

Wonder if anyone can plan against such odds..perhaps nearest comparison is aircraft safety systems...already nuke power (in this plant) was considered unviable. That too with Japanese customers paying high rates. One cannot ignore that consideration.

Very hard to see intelligent reports in media - most of it is same crap recycled and passed off as news..intelligence if any is used mainly to use bombastic words and scare mongering....sad to say but perhaps we have to wait for Frontline commies to write about this..

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 16 Mar 2011 10:11

Sanku wrote:
shiv wrote: Japan should not have nuclear reactors?
Not unless they think committing harakiri for no particular purpose is a very honorable thing.

It is not easy...Japan is far away from oil/coal...pollution is an even bigger concern..the oil shock of 70s changed their calculation...by taking that risk they are taking one huge source of demand out of the market - we have to thank them for that..

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 16 Mar 2011 10:20

ramana wrote:The Japanese have built a sea wall to ward of normal tsunami waves. This one was a biggie.

One day will tell you what all I have done for roz ka roti! All engineering not to worry.

My reading suggests the CANDU/PHWR design would have been safer here, since it can be passively cooled (i.e. without power). Is this true, and if so what prompted the industry to go in for LWR designs?

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 16 Mar 2011 10:20

Shivji - Just wanted to add - I am sure you know about Gutenberg–Richter law.. basically while one sees 100,000 quakes (say level 3 or 4) the frequency falls pretty fast..Eg if in mean wait time for 8.0 type quake is 10 yrs ...,..9.0 it will be 100 yrs ..

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 16 Mar 2011 10:21

Suppiah wrote: It is not easy...Japan is far away from oil/coal...pollution is an even bigger concern..the oil shock of 70s changed their calculation...by taking that risk they are taking one huge source of demand out of the market - we have to thank them for that..

Given that they are a island nation, why should pollution be a concern? All the exhaust is going to be blown away anyway. Further, they are indeed hyper dependent on imports of all sorts, including security imports from US. Whats a little bit of coal in that picture?

I am not sure whether the decisions were driven by Japan or US in this case. The US companies needed a market desperately after the US public opinion had made construction of newer Nuclear plants in their country untenable. Japan neatly filled iin the slot during that time frame.

Basically what MMS is forcing India to do now, the Japanese went through much earlier.

========

Added another data point which supports "Japs did this for US" picture

vera_k wrote:
ramana wrote:The Japanese have built a sea wall to ward of normal tsunami waves. This one was a biggie.

One day will tell you what all I have done for roz ka roti! All engineering not to worry.
My reading suggests the CANDU/PHWR design would have been safer here, since it can be passively cooled (i.e. without power). Is this true, and if so what prompted the industry to go in for LWR designs?

negi · Post by **negi** » 16 Mar 2011 10:23

Sorry if this was posted earlier (I think positives need to be highlighted too)

In Japan Earthquake, Early Warnings Helped

Ref: http://spectrum.ieee.org/tech-talk/comp ... tem-worked

Four years ago, Japan rolled out the world's most sophisticated earthquake early-warning system. The EEW system can detect the approximate source and magnitude of an earthquake and send out public alerts via TV, radio, and cellphone--all in less than a minute of a quake's start. It also transmits signals that can automatically shut down computers, stop elevators at the nearest floor, and halt factory production lines.

According to Masumi Yamada, an assistant professor in the Earthquake Hazards Division at Kyoto University, the 11 March earthquake began at 2:46 p.m. about 150 kilometers off the coast of Miyagi prefecture, and 31 seconds later, residents of the Tohoku region received the first warning via cellphone, TV, and radio. That gave people a lead time of between 10 to 30 seconds before they felt the first tremors [see map].

Much of the damage since Friday didn't come directly from the earthquake but rather from the accompanying tsunami, which swept away entire villages along the northeastern coast of Honshu, Japan's main island. The tsunami also flooded backup diesel generators at the Fukushima Dai-1 nuclear plant, thereby preventing cool-down measures. Japan has a tsunami early-warning system, but in this case, there was only about 15 minutes between the first tremors and the tsunami's arrival.

vina · Post by **vina** » 16 Mar 2011 10:24

Can you really design any nuclear plant to withstand a 9 scale earthquake? Is any part of Japan safe for reactors?

Actually, that is a massive yes. Don't believe me, ask your Unkal Googal yourself. There are hundreds of such reactors in operation even today and they are designed for far more violent motions than what you get to see in a Richter scale 9 or even 9.5 or even 10 kind of earthquakes.

Hint.. They are ship based reactors and ships experience far more violent g forces and motions than any earthquake can throw up. Ask any sailor about roaring forties and a plimsoll line for WNA (winter north atlantic) and the 20 to even 35 meter waves that are common

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 16 Mar 2011 10:28

Vina, hat tip!!!

Meanwhile endgame

http://www.ndtv.com/article/world/japan ... o-up-91987

Fukushima, Japan: Japan suspended operations to keep its stricken nuclear plant from melting down on Wednesday after surging radiation made it too dangerous to stay.

http://www.ndtv.com/article/world/fire- ... fuel-91965

Tokyo: The company that runs the troubled Fukushima Daiichi plant in northeastern Japan announced on Wednesday that a fire was burning there, just hours after officials said flames that erupted on Tuesday had been doused. (In Pics: Japan earthquake triggers tsunami)

Soon after that announcement, a government official at Japan's nuclear watchdog agency said that flames and smoke were no longer visible, but he cautioned that it was unclear if the fire had died out. The official, Minoru Ogoda, said it was also unclear if this was a new fire or if the fire on Tuesday had never really gone out. (Watch: NDTV Ground Report - Japan's nuclear crisis)

Ouch ouch ouch. TEPCO is living up to its reputation of being totally opaque about reality.

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 16 Mar 2011 10:32

Actually skyscrapers are designed for 9-9.5 in Japan...they advertise that as a sales point..if they can do that for such tall buildings, a much smaller structure like reactor with much more danger, it should be possible I would imagine.

negi · Post by **negi** » 16 Mar 2011 10:40

Well isn't it the flooding due to the Tsunami and not the earth quake tremors themselves that has caused this cooling problem/failure at the Fukushima power plant ?

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 16 Mar 2011 10:45

negi wrote:Well isn't it the flooding due to the Tsunami and not the earth quake tremors themselves that has caused this cooling problem/failure at the Fukushima power plant ?

There are reports which blame the earthquakes too, for cracking/breaking the chambers, in any event, Tsunami and quakes are interrelated, particularly in Japan so for all practical purpose they are ONE issue to deal with.

Suppiah wrote:Actually skyscrapers are designed for 9-9.5 in Japan...they advertise that as a sales point..if they can do that for such tall buildings, a much smaller structure like reactor with much more danger, it should be possible I would imagine.

Well the functionality and safety expected from the two are quite different, there issues are not really the same.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 16 Mar 2011 10:47

^^^Water from the tsunami flooded the battery backup power for the cooling systems.

A lot is being said about TEPCO, and granted they've been sloppy in the past, but IMHO, they've handled this crisis very well.

I'm going to post this link again from MIT's Nuclear Science & Engineering Dept., as it answers many questions:
http://mitnse.com/

On another note, its not so much the Richter scale that one would design a reactor complex, but rather it would be based upon ground acceleration. If a reactor can withstand 0.7 g =~ 7 m/s^2 acceleration, then that is pretty good.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 16 Mar 2011 10:49

vera_k wrote:
My reading suggests the CANDU/PHWR design would have been safer here, since it can be passively cooled (i.e. without power). Is this true, and if so what prompted the industry to go in for LWR designs?

CANDU uses heavy water and natural uranium as fuel. The rods have to be continousoly moved. The rods get converted to PU!.

US reactors are light water reactors and use enriched uranium ~2-3 %. And they don't produce maal. So essentially anti-proliferation measure.

shiv, yes that is the logic used for hazards analysis.

AmberG, I just started in power plant design when the movie came and TMI happened. Was very eerie.

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CNN is giving so much crap its unbelievable. Appears to be an agenda for no one can be so stupid and not get right experts. The BWR technology is US origin and there are so many they cn contact. They had a British guy who had no clue and yet jabbering away.

vina · Post by **vina** » 16 Mar 2011 10:53

Sanku wrote:No you cant, especially dangerous, questionable LWR, BWR types.

Yawn.. Talk about so See Near (aka Short Sighted) that you cant see beyond your nose!

negi · Post by **negi** » 16 Mar 2011 10:53

Sanku wrote: There are reports which blame the earthquakes too, for cracking/breaking the chambers

Where ? At the Fukushima power plant ?

vina · Post by **vina** » 16 Mar 2011 10:58

vera_k wrote:My reading suggests the CANDU/PHWR design would have been safer here, since it can be passively cooled (i.e. without power).

Who told you that ? They CANDU /PHWR as they are in India , Canada, S.Korea need the pumps to be working. The diff is per my reading and the pics I have seen in Al-Hundi and Com(ed)y Central (aka Frontline) is that it is a pressure tube system with end shields (calandria) as the reactor pressure vessel unlike a giant one piece pressure vessel like in Pressurized Light Water Reactors.