Division of UP and its implications

[Theo_Fidel]

It is absolutely happening. There is zero resistance to it on the ground.

Now which map is correct. Very confused. Any UP wallahs comment which is better.







Added first page map.

[Sanku]

It is absolutely happening. There is zero resistance to it on the ground.

Its absolutely happening.

About the maps I will hold on about which one is right, but I think the second one is.

And oh for the record, I rate Mayawati quite highly. Very very highly. She is quite good, a very able politician, and strongly supported by the so called upper castes.

[Vikas]

OT but I would support Mayawati any day over Maino and her Son. At least she has worked for her leadership position and was not handed over this position in a platter by family name. Good or bad she has ruled a state and has taken populist and unpopular decision. What has "Beggers from UP" done in his life except for reading speeches written by some backroom boy. His party has sucked central govt dry.

Is MMS govt going to split UP and keep Telangana issue simmering ? In that case, Telangana folks should banish Con-party from telangana for next 50 years.

[Y I Patel]

This is an excellent development, and I hope it happens ASAP. My reason for favoring it is that it will isolate the UP muslim vote bank to Paschim Pradesh, expecially if the demographics are along the lines suggestd by Narayana Rao on page 1. The muslim vote bank has been the crucial swing vote in undivided UP, and its influence gets magnified on the national stage because of the political clout of UP. Such is the preverse calculus of multi-party caste based politics.

Now if UP gets broken up into 3 or 4 different states and the muslim vote gets concentrated in one of them, then the impact of that vote bank gets sequestered to a smaller and far less politically consequential state. Further, if the demographics lead to 30-40% muslim population, then competetive politics within that vote bank that were so far suppressed due to larger minority politics will now surface. Afterall, this is the hotbed of Deobandi Sunniism but if I am not mistaken the Bareillvi sect will also be strong and is actually numerically predominant in different parts of the country. It is even possible that the rare species known as a progressive muslim politician will be able to navigate these dynamics and rise as a compromise leader!

All in all, a masterful counterstroke by Mayavati to undermine Congress moves to reconsolidate among muslims by proposing reservation quotas. It bolsters my belief from my experience in Gujarat that emergent OBC/BC groups tend to be the most ferocious defenders of their newly acquired turf, and the least likely to cede it to other competetors. If she pulls this off, I predict her next move will be to form a national coalition. It will be very interesting to see which way she swings. Maybe Hindutva will get its Rani of Lucknow.

[Sri]

Having my whole family in Noida, I can tell you, things happen under her. I was in Lucknow few months ago. She dug up the whole city and got the sewage and water pipelines upgraded (after independence first time) in record time. There are areas in city which are absolute classic. The commercial area (i forgot the name) is modeled after cannaught place in Delhi. She might be autocratic but thats what is exactly needed to run state like UP.

As far as politics of small state is concerned she stands to gain handsomely. Unlike any other party she sits on something called transferable voting support. In essence her supporters wil vote for anyone she wishes them to. Pashchim Pradesh and Awadh are given to be hers in with maximum number of her constituency concentrated here. If by some miracle she does get the 4 states, and does win even 3 of these states, she is all of a sudden a national leader of a national party, hence staking her claim to Delhi durbar even more.

[chaanakya]

Cabinet approves division - already! Just like that! That was fast.

Something tells me this division is going to happen, and will happen sooner rather than later.

Time will tell how effective (or not) the division was.

Resolution will be tabled in Winter session of Assembly and sent to Pres. of India. It would put BJP and INC in a bind during elections. But of course there is absolutely no hard feelings among people about split. Yet to see how electorate responds.

Division would then move to Parliament which has to pass it. There it again depends on numbers. How southern MPs are going to vote: in favour or against it. How TN/AP/Mahrashtra/Karnataka MPs would vote. Their votes would come back to haunt them if this split goes through. How numbers are staked in RS. In these issues both house have to pass else Bill would get defeated. In case of defeat which Party would suffer in Nawrth?

The agenda here is not development despite arguments for or against it but political.

[niran]

Now if UP gets broken up into 3 or 4 different states and the muslim vote gets concentrated in one of them, then the impact of that vote bank gets sequestered to a smaller and far less politically consequential state. Further, if the demographics lead to 30-40% muslim population, then competetive politics within that vote bank that were so far suppressed due to larger minority politics will now surface. Afterall, this is the hotbed of Deobandi Sunniism but if I am not mistaken the Bareillvi sect will also be strong and is actually numerically predominant in different parts of the country. It is even possible that the rare species known as a progressive muslim politician will be able to navigate these dynamics and rise as a compromise leader!

that is quite dandy and candy from an air conditioned room, Saar. this "compromise leader"
thingy is a wishlist, since realities seldom go according to an abdul wishlist, abduls will have to look for real world happenstance as an example, which is 30-40 percent RoP population will rapidly grow into ~60 percent and then there is going to be a demand for a seperate RoP nation, now that in my book is absolutely undandy and uncandy.

[niran]

^^ Are there any reliable stats for the growth of non-RoP population in those parts?

few observations
-there is a mohala in Varanasi with about 15 resident who followed RoP in mid 80s somehow a Mosque was built and by 90s the population of RoP exploded to hundred thousand plus registered persons it took a riot of unheard ferociousness to contain them in the said mohala
now polis do not dare enter the place even in daylight, RoP sleep in shifts, with elders during 9-12
while youngers watch late night movie, then they sleep while elders yak yak among themselves to while away the nite

-the area around Azamgarh need not be told, no?
-then there is a small town near Muzafarnagar known as Deoband
during mid 90s the population was evenly spread between non and followers,
now onlee stationed sarkari babu along with people too poor to migrate remain who are non RoP.

[Murugan]

"UPites living like beggars in mumbai" comment of AB has generated brouhaha in Mumbai.

Northies of Mumbai are praparing to sue AB

After division of UP, AB's ILK, MNS and SS will find it hard to pinpoint Bhaiyya population in MH. And according to RPI chief Athavale, AB will stop begging for votes in UP once the state is divided.

A complaint was filed against Congress general secretary Rahul Gandhi at a Bandra court on Tuesday for his alleged remarks on migration of north Indians to Maharashtra in an election rally in Uttar Pradesh. The complaint was filed by Farooq Ghoshi, vice president of Samajwadi Party’s city unit.

"Kab tak Maharashtra jaake bheek mangte rahoge?” Gandhi had said at an election rally. “The community was upset about the choice of words (bheek) by Rahul Gandhi. People live here respectfully and earn money,” said Ghosi.

Expressing shock over the use of word by Gandhi, deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar said: “He is the fourth generation descendent of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty and one would not expect him to say such things.” Pawar said there was nothing wrong in people moving from one state to another in search of a better livelihood and not all of them travelled to beg. Meanwhile, a section of the north Indian community was upset about the words used by Rahul Gandhi. “What he has said is not correct. His choice of word is not right,” said Ram Dubey, former member of Uttar Bharatiya Mahasangh. Dubey has been living in Mumbai for the 19 years.

[harbans]

From what i have seen, Harit Pradesh would probably be amongst the richest states in India. It's amongst the greenest belts in India, very fertile, fair sprinkling of industries, good access to water and hydel power. Disadvantage law and order problem. Most major cities and towns are very communally senstitive too. A hindrance to development plus they provide politicians the chance to play the minority card. Caste politics won;t matter much. Jats are already a minority in Western UP, plus the focus has shifted more to who can develop than caste based vote patterns. From what i make out, change is coming to UP but it will have hiccups.

[AjayKK]

-then there is a small town near Muzafarnagar known as Deoband
during mid 90s the population was evenly spread between non and followers,
now onlee stationed sarkari babu along with people too poor to migrate remain who are non RoP.

Niran, you observation is valid. Uttar Pradesh has 401 constituencies with around 50 - 52 Muslim MLAs. Paschim (West) Uttar Pradesh , has 6 administrative divisions - Meerut, Saharanpur, Moradabad, Bareilly, Agra and Aligarh. It has 28 Muslim MLAs out of a total of around 120 constituencies. News reports say that the new state of Harit Pradesh will have around 90- 120 constituencies depending on the break-up. To put into perspective, if the state Harit Pradesh is formed and contains all the same constituencies as Western UP, it will be forming a "power centre" next to the capital region.


State ________Seats________Muslim MLAs in 2006________Muslim MLAs in 2011

West Bengal___294________________46________________________59
Kerala________140________________25________________________36
Assam________126________________25________________________28

Harit Pradesh, with Meerut as its secular nerve-centre, would have more % of Muslim MLAs than Kerala, WB and Assam. A simple and honest political reasoning would notify the secular state of affairs in Assam and Kerala. If unbiased political opinion is formed without involving chankian theories, then an economically prosperous state of Harit Pradesh may have more volatile politics than WB, Assam or Kerala and its proximity to the capital may be a problem area. It is a generally held opinion that the need for the clergy/imams to be near the power centre does not generate good results for the nation or the state.

Moreover, this creates a problem of an nonviable Bundelkhand and less sustainable Poorvanchal. If "easily administer-able and manageable units" are the motives for carving out the 4 states, then with UP we have exactly the opposite result with two weaker states and a Paschim Assam Kerala on our hands.

[Muppalla]

^^^
Assam and NE divisions is a good to analyze. If GOI did not seperate out the smaller states such as Meghalaya, Manipur etc. out of Assam, it probably would not be in a position where divided Hindu population ends up with a party rule decided by the Muslims (indegeneous and Bangla settlers).

UP division will definitely change the map of India as it is going to change the map of India. The agitations for seperate states will start all over India.

Just extrapolate Jharkhand electoral output to India with several regional outfits. Do not take what is today in terms of politcs and when you make important decisions, it is important to take worst case scenario. It is easy to push for change using the spin of best case scenarios. Right now even small states such as Haryana, Punjab, JK, JHK and few NE states are already in opportunistic coalition governments.

[Hari Seldon]

Maya has played a brilliant gambit. She has taken direct aim at harvesting the Telengana vote with her UP division antics. jai hoooooo.

[devesh]

actually, one sees in history that when the Islamist infested UP areas start playing sub-regional politics; there is strong trend toward smaller territories playing politics against each other in the Gangetic belt. all the influential players who started the game were eventually swallowed up by those who didn't start the game but strengthened their position in lower GV and later, as the original players in Upper-Central GV got exhausted, absorbed those regions away.

if history is a process of "patterns", then those who start the game and are most influential in the intial stages, will likely get absorbed by forces which rise later and didn't have any hand in the "original" game.

[SBajwa]

Creating more districts will help for

1. More SPs and police stations. (law and order)
2. More Tehsildars (buy/sell property).
3. More Judges (Justice).
4. Less travel time for people. (save on gas, time, etct).

[RajeshA]

Basically if one has smaller states, then the power of regional satraps would be much less. It could lead to India becoming a more centrist country - more on the lines of France rather than say Germany or USA.

[SBajwa]

RajeshA. I am not sure about Germany but power is totally down to the grassroots level in USA. Just last week people (along with regular elections) voted for things like "referendum to give 1 million dollars to the carnegie library"

[SwamyG]

Mort saar:
1. Agreed.
2. I do not know that, but it is plausible considering our population and the stress it creates on the land and resources.
3. Agreed. But you can extend that logic to almost all institutions or bodies in India (and to an extent anywhere - including America)
4. Agreed. But the other side of the coin is with more people, there will be more oversight on forests and resources. Humans are not fundamentally evil or good. Both qualities exist in all of us to varying degrees. So do you agree that there will be beneits too? More resources to monitor the conditions and take preventive (proactive) and corrective measures?

[RajeshA]

RajeshA. I am not sure about Germany but power is totally down to the grassroots level in USA. Just last week people (along with regular elections) voted for things like "referendum to give 1 million dollars to the carnegie library"

SBajwa ji,

I was not referring to grassroots democracy per se! But rather to the concept of certain regions being able to unduly dictate the make-up of the Central Government, the policies of the Center and most importantly to withstand policy intervention by the Center in the law and administration of the region.

With smaller states, the Center has more power to dictate, say in the case of a river-dispute or inter-state trade or even nationwide education policy. Small states cannot withstand the diktat of the Center as much as large states could. Smaller states have less of a veto power over the Center.

[RamaY]

Now if UP gets broken up into 3 or 4 different states and the muslim vote gets concentrated in one of them, then the impact of that vote bank gets sequestered to a smaller and far less politically consequential state. Further, if the demographics lead to 30-40% muslim population, then competetive politics within that vote bank that were so far suppressed due to larger minority politics will now surface. Afterall, this is the hotbed of Deobandi Sunniism but if I am not mistaken the Bareillvi sect will also be strong and is actually numerically predominant in different parts of the country. It is even possible that the rare species known as a progressive muslim politician will be able to navigate these dynamics and rise as a compromise leader!

If this happens, in a way it could be good for the entire country. The whole nation sees how Muslim Majority states behave (people who do not believe in J&K terrorism roots) and hopefully the S^4 (State Sponsored (Sic) Secularism) will come to an end.

[RamaY]

As far as politics of small state is concerned she stands to gain handsomely. Unlike any other party she sits on something called transferable voting support. In essence her supporters wil vote for anyone she wishes them to. Pashchim Pradesh and Awadh are given to be hers in with maximum number of her constituency concentrated here. If by some miracle she does get the 4 states, and does win even 3 of these states, she is all of a sudden a national leader of a national party, hence staking her claim to Delhi durbar even more.

Tathastu!

And we are in desperate need of an Indian/Indic Female Leader (with utmost sincerity). They evoke the spirit of the nation.

[RamaY]

actually, one sees in history that when the Islamist infested UP areas start playing sub-regional politics; there is strong trend toward smaller territories playing politics against each other in the Gangetic belt. all the influential players who started the game were eventually swallowed up by those who didn't start the game but strengthened their position in lower GV and later, as the original players in Upper-Central GV got exhausted, absorbed those regions away.

if history is a process of "patterns", then those who start the game and are most influential in the intial stages, will likely get absorbed by forces which rise later and didn't have any hand in the "original" game.

Reminds me of a Telugu Article I read today http://telugu.greatandhra.com/cinema/20 ... 10_mbs.php

It explains the efforts of a British soldier Philip Meadows Taylor (The story of My Life) in Nizam kingdom, and how people like Meadows Taylor who built the infrastructure that are wrongly attributed to Nizam.

The writer (MBS Prasad) summarizes the whole situation (failure of 1857 mutiny) as this

The independence movement was started by educated Indians. They started this agitation as they wanted to bring the democratic governance model to India - instead of British kingdom. But the commors did not join them at the begenning. The commonors like the order in society (civic infra, law and order etc) that is brought in by British rule. They were scared that all these benefits will be lost if the kingdom model returns.

It took lot of effort to convince the common Indians that we are not going back to the feudalism and we are going to continue the democratic model even after independence from British. Gandhi, Nehru and others were able to do it that is why they are the leaders of Independent India (contrast this with some of the Swaraj Party ideas; which were in support of feudalistic structures).

Coming to the current topic, smaller states will bring the feudalistic structures back IMHO. Given the current corrupt political, administrative models most of these small states will go into the control of 30-50 MLAs/MPs (new feudals). There is a very high chance that these politicians are direct descendants of past feudal structures; and we are back to 500+ samsthanas. That will be undoing of democracy.

[Theo_Fidel]

Since independence & linguistic re-org our population has increased 4 times.

We should have 4 times as many states. No state should have more than 20-25 million or so people. You need that many Chief ministers. And yes the big southern states should be broken into those sizes as well. There is a reason historically India fragmented into 600 kingdoms and mostly did well by it. Never understood why Salem, Dharmapuri & Kongu Nadu is in the same state as Travancore and Pandiya's. Makes no sense at all. Except to keep Chennai.

The way constitution is written, center dare not mess with a state esp. now without consequences.

[RamaY]

Since independence & linguistic re-org our population has increased 4 times.

Could you pls elaborate on this? TIA

[Airavat]

From TOI

Political observer Deepak Mishra says the smaller states would give rise to more regional parties based on sub-castes such as Bhumihars and Rajbhars in east, Jats in west and Muslims in the northwest region. He says Mayawati stands to gain politically from the move as her core constituency - dalits - is evenly spread throughout the state. She can also hope to benefit from regional sentiments in the east, west and Bundelkhand, Mishra adds. "The SP is opposing the move because it will split its Yadav vote (9% of the population) is concentrated in pockets of east and west UP. In such a situation, Muslims may also leave SP as the community tactically vote for the party which is in position to defeat BJP," says Mishra. The BJP, he adds, is worried because division of the state might create regions in west and east UP with high Muslim concentration.

Congress is weighing its options, eager to balance its concern about Mayawati gaining sympathy in the four regions of UP with its compulsions over Telangana. While Congress cannot be seen as overtly opposing the division of the state in view of its own leaders having demanded statehood for Bundelkhand, it can also not be back the proposal vocally lest it run afoul with its reticence on Telangana.

[AjayKK]

Just extrapolate Jharkhand electoral output to India with several regional outfits. Do not take what is today in terms of politcs and when you make important decisions, it is important to take worst case scenario. It is easy to push for change using the spin of best case scenarios. Right now even small states such as Haryana, Punjab, JK, JHK and few NE states are already in opportunistic coalition governments.

From your post of multi-layered coalitions

Congress party has a fine multi-layered coalitions

Layer-1 DMK, NCP, TMC, Others (NE and miniscules)
Layer-2 SP or Maya as needed, Laloo, Paswan
Layer-3 ADMK, Nitish, Naveen, TRS, Jagan and also Left

If Level 4 s considered to be anti INC, that is the opponents, then we can have a scenario.

The Level 1 staunch states need not be split up and should be acted upon only if the new state will also have an INC favouring electorate + profitable distribution + party's revenue appreciation. Hence the problem of AP-Telangana or Maharashtra-Vidarbha. If the 3 were achieved by bifurcating these two states, then it would be done long back. Matters such as development and infrastructure would not even come last in the "committee meetings".

The Level 2 states may be split if the resulting state decimates the staunch opponents, helps to maintain the allies and strengthen the INC. If the UP division confines the BJP to one and a half state and Mayawati rules in 2-3 states, and INC - SP retain their seats or coalitions, then it should work well for the INC. Some years later, due to governors' interferences, the four states might not even have simultaneous elections and the "UP 401 assembly wave" would be lost. The half-Bundelkhand will become like Jharkhand.

The Level 3 - opportunistic coalitions - need not be touched. Even Jharkhand, though having a non INC CM can be considered to have become a Level 3 state as the JMM, RJD, CPI MPs all rally behind the INC. Thus the state has many parties with lower share for the BJP to romp home in the Lok Sabha.

The Level 4 is to be incited to create dissent and decrease vote share of the opposition. Might be the next round of problems could come from Saurashtra and Kutch.

[chaanakya]

NDTV had a debate just now on PrimeTime.
Through Smoke and screens Vikram Chandra managed to get the comments from INC and BJP that they supports smaller states and are not against division of UP though motive is suspect. Vikram Chandra asked INC man Jagdambika Pal about Telangana and , clearly he was not prepared, blabbered something. Mayawati has forced both Parties on backfoot before UP elections. RG might not break the jinx in UP elections.

[anmol]

The Curious Gamble of Rahul Gandhi
M.J. AKBAR

There is one question within the complicated Uttar Pradesh conundrum that has left me completely bewildered. Why on earth has Rahul Gandhi made the results of its Assembly polls next year such a prestige issue – his own prestige, not his party's? Why has he staked his personal reputation on UP, and then multiplied the stakes, when he has no real reason to gamble his own future on the vagaries of Awadh?

The Congress party makes no demands on him. It will anoint him Prime Minister the day he chooses to shift from waiting room into head office. The job comes to him by genetic entitlement, not electoral endorsement. Rahul Gandhi led his party's campaign in Bihar, only to be drowned by the Nitish Kumar-BJP deluge. Did this diminish his claim on the Prime Ministership? No. Supposing the results of UP are equally dispiriting. Will that end the constant chirrup by acolytes for his elevation? No. Competence is not the primary measure in current Congress mathematics. Family is. If Pranab Mukherjee had the right genes he would have been Prime Minister, and in the mould of the person he admires most in recent Indian history, Mrs Indira Gandhi. But he does not have the genes. And that is that.

When the electorate gets its chance to evaluate a Prime Minister Rahul Gandhi, it will not do so on the basis of how many votes he gets in Mayawati's UP. It will take a call on how he manages the crises that he will inherit, and there will be enough of them in 2012.

Jawaharlal Nehru is the only Congress PM who was battle-tested at the hustings before being sworn in – the general elections of 1937 and 1946; the first was an incomplete victory and the second a bitter triumph. Lal Bahadur Shastri had no track record when he became PM in June 1964. Neither did Indira Gandhi when she succeeded him in January 1966. Mrs Gandhi failed miserably in her first electoral test. The Congress lost every state between Amritsar and Calcutta in 1967. Rajiv Gandhi was totally untested when he became PM in October 1984. His landslide two months later owed more to his mother's martyrdom than to any promise he exuded. P.V. Narasimha Rao never won anything, either in 1991, an election he did not contest, or 1996, when he contested with awful consequences. Dr Manmohan Singh was not made PM because he could set fire to a crowd with his oratory.

What will a few seats more or less in UP prove? The dynamics of a general election are radically different from those of a provincial poll. Mayawati won a splendid victory in 2007, and slipped behind the Congress in 2009. The Congress got fewer Assembly seats in 2007 than it got Parliament seats in 2009. The battle of 2012 will be determined by factors completely different from 2007. The Congress lost the state of UP in 1989, and still has not discovered how it has slipped from its once-formidable grip. Delhi is closer to Congress than Lucknow.

Rahul Gandhi has thrown expensive specialists into a war room to plan out minute strategy; demographic experts have become flush with funds. The investment is personal; he is the general of this campaign. In another context, the UP election of 2012 could have become a legitimate bid for Congress rule in Lucknow. But oddly, his advisers like the general secretary in charge of UP, Digvijay Singh, are letting it be known that they will view a mere 60 seats out of 403 as "victory". This is terrifyingly naïve.

There is only one reason for such discordant UP hype: to create a Rahul "bounce" that will serve as ballast for entry into the PM's office. But Rahul Gandhi does not need any artificial boost. Dr Manmohan Singh has said repeatedly that the door is open for him to enter on any day he wishes. Are the allies who keep Congress in power waiting anxiously for the UP results to find out whether they can entrust their fortunes to a youngish heir? No. Sharad Pawar and Karunanidhi are too vulnerable to risk a mid-term poll. They will swallow their reservations and join the chorus.

There is no objective reason; but there could be a subjective one. Is this anxiety for success a sign of Rahul Gandhi's own insecurity, a gnawing desire to prove to himself and the political class that he has come of age, and that he no longer needs his father's memory or his mother's shadow?

Doubt is a familiar component of his age group, particularly if there is no professional success on the CV. But he has advisers whose job is to chart the safest way forward rather than feed into their leader's doubts with meaningless risk. If things go right Rahul Gandhi will get what was already his designated due. If they go wrong he could be left holding, as that acerbic simile puts it, the dirty end of a burnt matchstick.

[Theo_Fidel]

Another possible map!

[Pratyush]

UP’s big day: Assembly to debate Maya’s plan to divide state in four

[Pratyush]

BJP, SP move no-confidence motion against Mayawati government

[chaanakya]

Uttar Pradesh assembly passes resolution to divide state into 4 parts

LUCKNOW: The Uttar Pradesh assembly on Monday passed a resolution seeking to divide the state into four parts. The resolution was passed with a voice vote.

The UP assembly was adjourned sine die immediately after the passage of the resolution seeking to divide the sate.

Earlier in the day, the assembly was adjourned for an hour amid uproar created by SP, BJP and Congress MLA over no-confidence motion and resolution on division of UP. Contrary to constitutional norms, chief minister Mayawati was not present at the start of the session.

Ok so one hurdle passed. Now ball is in the court of Central Govt.

[Muppalla]

^^^
That is where the trick starts in terms of spin. For both Congress and BJP who do not want UP division (though not openly expressing what they want why they do not want), they have a resolution passed in UP assembly. In case of AP split, the resolution will never get passed irrespective of parties that come to power. The division of AP has to be forceful when it happens. In AP, BJP always talks about split and the polished ones talks about advantages of small states and all the hotair surrounding it.

[SBajwa]

How are the Rajya Sabha seats allocated? If there are more states then does the number of Rajya Sabha seats go up?

[Muppalla]

How are the Rajya Sabha seats allocated? If there are more states then does the number of Rajya Sabha seats go up?

It is proportional to population. So if the states divide, the RS seats will be distributed proportionally too. No change to total numbers.

[chaanakya]

^^^
That is where the trick starts in terms of spin. For both Congress and BJP who do not want UP division (though not openly expressing what they want why they do not want), they have a resolution passed in UP assembly. In case of AP split, the resolution will never get passed irrespective of parties that come to power. The division of AP has to be forceful when it happens. In AP, BJP always talks about split and the polished ones talks about advantages of small states and all the hotair surrounding it.

Muppalla Garu Resolution is only one step in a long process. If there is no demand from People this means nothing. In case Mayawati loses UP election the resolution can be amended. The thing is how this is going to be exploited in elections. Whatever be the position of BJP and INC , they are going to face it elsewhere. AP is immediate issue. It might go out of INC hand. But BJP may not be the gainer.

I agree with your statement that "AP division has to be forceful" but but it may not happen without resolution in the Assembly. People have to form consensus for a solution. Again , it is difficult to put the genie back in the bottle.

It would be interesting to watch how both states fare on the path of split.

[Muppalla]

I agree with your statement that "AP division has to be forceful" but but it may not happen without resolution in the Assembly. People have to form consensus for a solution. Again , it is difficult to put the genie back in the bottle.


It would be interesting to watch how both states fare on the path of split.

There is no way ever that a resolution is possible in AP and that is extremely clear as MLAs will go out of party lines. Neither Jagan, CBN nor Sonia has any chance of prevailing upon their flock as far as AP division is concerned. So "may not happen without assembly resolution" and "genie cannot be put back in the bottle" are two contradictory things.

Either they say shut up to Coastal and Rayalaseema folks and supress as brutally as possible any uprising there to split the state, or do the same to T folks and keep the state united. Any other stuff is just timepass and another 100 pages to T thread . The timepass includes new proposals such as "let us make five states" or "let us create Hyd as UT" and more hot air baloons.

At this time the non-hot air stuff I can see is to neutralize TRS by means of creating a host of CBI cases just like they did on Jagan. Then declare some devolution of powers by means of councils and later make D.Srinivas from T region as CM. Lose or win that is the course they seems to have set for AP. TRS does have an option, it may take some escape route in the form of let us test the council for five years before resorting to agitation. In that case congress may give one too.

Regarding UP, congress spoke persons had already made statements that "there will be no UP division". Both BJP and Congress party spokespersons are just blaming Maya and not even adressing the resolution.

I personally do not beleive that states will get divided. in the near future. I do not have vision beyond 2015 or 2020 to say they just can't rollback. I have seen rolling back far more serious stuff. Read Rajiv-Longowal agreement of 1984. Implementation is zero.

If the next government is NDA, then there will just be no more divisions as this will not even make to common minimum program.

[sanjeevpunj]

If implemented,this will end up in a sort of Balkanisation, with each of the four states fighting with each other, messing things up further.Instead, UP should be divested of its corrupt politicians, methodically.There is no tearing need for a geoplitical break up, by this suggestion Mayawati is trying to ensure that in the event of her untimely ouster from power,she will still be seen as the founder of a broken UP state.Why is she in such a hurry to get this done when the people of UP are not demanding separate states vociferously like Telengana. The people must decide, not Mayawati.

[Sushupti]

^^^
. For both Congress and BJP who do not want UP division (though not openly expressing what they want why they do not want), they have a resolution passed in UP assembly.

I can't say about about Congress but RSS does support division of UP. Infact, as per RSS organization position holders UP is divided in 5 states .

[chaanakya]

I have seen too many flip flop by political class to assert that Assembly resolution may not happen. And "forceful" can have any number of connotations. And I don't think the sentence that follows it is contradictory in any way, difficult yes but not contradictory. I don't see popular movement being suppressed by force as it would lead to more reaction and ultimately to split, only with more bitterness.