Bharat Rakshak

Theo_Fidel wrote:It is absolutely happening. There is zero resistance to it on the ground.

ChandraV wrote:
Cabinet approves division - already! Just like that! That was fast.

Something tells me this division is going to happen, and will happen sooner rather than later.

Time will tell how effective (or not) the division was.

Y I Patel wrote:
Now if UP gets broken up into 3 or 4 different states and the muslim vote gets concentrated in one of them, then the impact of that vote bank gets sequestered to a smaller and far less politically consequential state. Further, if the demographics lead to 30-40% muslim population, then competetive politics within that vote bank that were so far suppressed due to larger minority politics will now surface. Afterall, this is the hotbed of Deobandi Sunniism but if I am not mistaken the Bareillvi sect will also be strong and is actually numerically predominant in different parts of the country. It is even possible that the rare species known as a progressive muslim politician will be able to navigate these dynamics and rise as a compromise leader!

ChandraV wrote:^^ Are there any reliable stats for the growth of non-RoP population in those parts?

A complaint was filed against Congress general secretary Rahul Gandhi at a Bandra court on Tuesday for his alleged remarks on migration of north Indians to Maharashtra in an election rally in Uttar Pradesh. The complaint was filed by Farooq Ghoshi, vice president of Samajwadi Party’s city unit.

"Kab tak Maharashtra jaake bheek mangte rahoge?” Gandhi had said at an election rally. “The community was upset about the choice of words (bheek) by Rahul Gandhi. People live here respectfully and earn money,” said Ghosi.

Expressing shock over the use of word by Gandhi, deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar said: “He is the fourth generation descendent of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty and one would not expect him to say such things.” Pawar said there was nothing wrong in people moving from one state to another in search of a better livelihood and not all of them travelled to beg. Meanwhile, a section of the north Indian community was upset about the words used by Rahul Gandhi. “What he has said is not correct. His choice of word is not right,” said Ram Dubey, former member of Uttar Bharatiya Mahasangh. Dubey has been living in Mumbai for the 19 years.

niran wrote:-then there is a small town near Muzafarnagar known as Deoband
during mid 90s the population was evenly spread between non and followers,
now onlee stationed sarkari babu along with people too poor to migrate remain who are non RoP.

SBajwa wrote:RajeshA. I am not sure about Germany but power is totally down to the grassroots level in USA. Just last week people (along with regular elections) voted for things like "referendum to give 1 million dollars to the carnegie library"

Y I Patel wrote: Now if UP gets broken up into 3 or 4 different states and the muslim vote gets concentrated in one of them, then the impact of that vote bank gets sequestered to a smaller and far less politically consequential state. Further, if the demographics lead to 30-40% muslim population, then competetive politics within that vote bank that were so far suppressed due to larger minority politics will now surface. Afterall, this is the hotbed of Deobandi Sunniism but if I am not mistaken the Bareillvi sect will also be strong and is actually numerically predominant in different parts of the country. It is even possible that the rare species known as a progressive muslim politician will be able to navigate these dynamics and rise as a compromise leader!

Sri wrote: As far as politics of small state is concerned she stands to gain handsomely. Unlike any other party she sits on something called transferable voting support. In essence her supporters wil vote for anyone she wishes them to. Pashchim Pradesh and Awadh are given to be hers in with maximum number of her constituency concentrated here. If by some miracle she does get the 4 states, and does win even 3 of these states, she is all of a sudden a national leader of a national party, hence staking her claim to Delhi durbar even more.

devesh wrote:actually, one sees in history that when the Islamist infested UP areas start playing sub-regional politics; there is strong trend toward smaller territories playing politics against each other in the Gangetic belt. all the influential players who started the game were eventually swallowed up by those who didn't start the game but strengthened their position in lower GV and later, as the original players in Upper-Central GV got exhausted, absorbed those regions away.

if history is a process of "patterns", then those who start the game and are most influential in the intial stages, will likely get absorbed by forces which rise later and didn't have any hand in the "original" game.

The independence movement was started by educated Indians. They started this agitation as they wanted to bring the democratic governance model to India - instead of British kingdom. But the commors did not join them at the begenning. The commonors like the order in society (civic infra, law and order etc) that is brought in by British rule. They were scared that all these benefits will be lost if the kingdom model returns.

It took lot of effort to convince the common Indians that we are not going back to the feudalism and we are going to continue the democratic model even after independence from British. Gandhi, Nehru and others were able to do it that is why they are the leaders of Independent India (contrast this with some of the Swaraj Party ideas; which were in support of feudalistic structures).

Theo_Fidel wrote:Since independence & linguistic re-org our population has increased 4 times.

Political observer Deepak Mishra says the smaller states would give rise to more regional parties based on sub-castes such as Bhumihars and Rajbhars in east, Jats in west and Muslims in the northwest region. He says Mayawati stands to gain politically from the move as her core constituency - dalits - is evenly spread throughout the state. She can also hope to benefit from regional sentiments in the east, west and Bundelkhand, Mishra adds. "The SP is opposing the move because it will split its Yadav vote (9% of the population) is concentrated in pockets of east and west UP. In such a situation, Muslims may also leave SP as the community tactically vote for the party which is in position to defeat BJP," says Mishra. The BJP, he adds, is worried because division of the state might create regions in west and east UP with high Muslim concentration.

Congress is weighing its options, eager to balance its concern about Mayawati gaining sympathy in the four regions of UP with its compulsions over Telangana. While Congress cannot be seen as overtly opposing the division of the state in view of its own leaders having demanded statehood for Bundelkhand, it can also not be back the proposal vocally lest it run afoul with its reticence on Telangana.

Muppalla wrote:
Just extrapolate Jharkhand electoral output to India with several regional outfits. Do not take what is today in terms of politcs and when you make important decisions, it is important to take worst case scenario. It is easy to push for change using the spin of best case scenarios. Right now even small states such as Haryana, Punjab, JK, JHK and few NE states are already in opportunistic coalition governments.

Congress party has a fine multi-layered coalitions

Layer-1 DMK, NCP, TMC, Others (NE and miniscules)
Layer-2 SP or Maya as needed, Laloo, Paswan
Layer-3 ADMK, Nitish, Naveen, TRS, Jagan and also Left

The Curious Gamble of Rahul Gandhi
M.J. AKBAR

There is one question within the complicated Uttar Pradesh conundrum that has left me completely bewildered. Why on earth has Rahul Gandhi made the results of its Assembly polls next year such a prestige issue – his own prestige, not his party's? Why has he staked his personal reputation on UP, and then multiplied the stakes, when he has no real reason to gamble his own future on the vagaries of Awadh?

The Congress party makes no demands on him. It will anoint him Prime Minister the day he chooses to shift from waiting room into head office. The job comes to him by genetic entitlement, not electoral endorsement. Rahul Gandhi led his party's campaign in Bihar, only to be drowned by the Nitish Kumar-BJP deluge. Did this diminish his claim on the Prime Ministership? No. Supposing the results of UP are equally dispiriting. Will that end the constant chirrup by acolytes for his elevation? No. Competence is not the primary measure in current Congress mathematics. Family is. If Pranab Mukherjee had the right genes he would have been Prime Minister, and in the mould of the person he admires most in recent Indian history, Mrs Indira Gandhi. But he does not have the genes. And that is that.

When the electorate gets its chance to evaluate a Prime Minister Rahul Gandhi, it will not do so on the basis of how many votes he gets in Mayawati's UP. It will take a call on how he manages the crises that he will inherit, and there will be enough of them in 2012.

Jawaharlal Nehru is the only Congress PM who was battle-tested at the hustings before being sworn in – the general elections of 1937 and 1946; the first was an incomplete victory and the second a bitter triumph. Lal Bahadur Shastri had no track record when he became PM in June 1964. Neither did Indira Gandhi when she succeeded him in January 1966. Mrs Gandhi failed miserably in her first electoral test. The Congress lost every state between Amritsar and Calcutta in 1967. Rajiv Gandhi was totally untested when he became PM in October 1984. His landslide two months later owed more to his mother's martyrdom than to any promise he exuded. P.V. Narasimha Rao never won anything, either in 1991, an election he did not contest, or 1996, when he contested with awful consequences. Dr Manmohan Singh was not made PM because he could set fire to a crowd with his oratory.

What will a few seats more or less in UP prove? The dynamics of a general election are radically different from those of a provincial poll. Mayawati won a splendid victory in 2007, and slipped behind the Congress in 2009. The Congress got fewer Assembly seats in 2007 than it got Parliament seats in 2009. The battle of 2012 will be determined by factors completely different from 2007. The Congress lost the state of UP in 1989, and still has not discovered how it has slipped from its once-formidable grip. Delhi is closer to Congress than Lucknow.

Rahul Gandhi has thrown expensive specialists into a war room to plan out minute strategy; demographic experts have become flush with funds. The investment is personal; he is the general of this campaign. In another context, the UP election of 2012 could have become a legitimate bid for Congress rule in Lucknow. But oddly, his advisers like the general secretary in charge of UP, Digvijay Singh, are letting it be known that they will view a mere 60 seats out of 403 as "victory". This is terrifyingly naïve.

There is only one reason for such discordant UP hype: to create a Rahul "bounce" that will serve as ballast for entry into the PM's office. But Rahul Gandhi does not need any artificial boost. Dr Manmohan Singh has said repeatedly that the door is open for him to enter on any day he wishes. Are the allies who keep Congress in power waiting anxiously for the UP results to find out whether they can entrust their fortunes to a youngish heir? No. Sharad Pawar and Karunanidhi are too vulnerable to risk a mid-term poll. They will swallow their reservations and join the chorus.

There is no objective reason; but there could be a subjective one. Is this anxiety for success a sign of Rahul Gandhi's own insecurity, a gnawing desire to prove to himself and the political class that he has come of age, and that he no longer needs his father's memory or his mother's shadow?

Doubt is a familiar component of his age group, particularly if there is no professional success on the CV. But he has advisers whose job is to chart the safest way forward rather than feed into their leader's doubts with meaningless risk. If things go right Rahul Gandhi will get what was already his designated due. If they go wrong he could be left holding, as that acerbic simile puts it, the dirty end of a burnt matchstick.

LUCKNOW: The Uttar Pradesh assembly on Monday passed a resolution seeking to divide the state into four parts. The resolution was passed with a voice vote.

The UP assembly was adjourned sine die immediately after the passage of the resolution seeking to divide the sate.

Earlier in the day, the assembly was adjourned for an hour amid uproar created by SP, BJP and Congress MLA over no-confidence motion and resolution on division of UP. Contrary to constitutional norms, chief minister Mayawati was not present at the start of the session.

SBajwa wrote:How are the Rajya Sabha seats allocated? If there are more states then does the number of Rajya Sabha seats go up?

Muppalla wrote:^^^
That is where the trick starts in terms of spin. For both Congress and BJP who do not want UP division (though not openly expressing what they want why they do not want), they have a resolution passed in UP assembly. In case of AP split, the resolution will never get passed irrespective of parties that come to power. The division of AP has to be forceful when it happens. In AP, BJP always talks about split and the polished ones talks about advantages of small states and all the hotair surrounding it.

chaanakya wrote:I agree with your statement that "AP division has to be forceful" but but it may not happen without resolution in the Assembly. People have to form consensus for a solution. Again , it is difficult to put the genie back in the bottle.


It would be interesting to watch how both states fare on the path of split.

Muppalla wrote:^^^
. For both Congress and BJP who do not want UP division (though not openly expressing what they want why they do not want), they have a resolution passed in UP assembly.