India - The Indian Ocean Civilization & IOR

[Theo_Fidel]

Theo ji,
by that token Pakistan would be more Indian than India - because those Pakis who have the means - are immersed in Bollywood.

There is a case to be made for that. There is a spectrum of thought that Pakistan acts like a vote group that belongs in India.

That said it is the low level Maldivian who enjoys bollywood. Maldives is one of those odd places where a lot of money and property travels along the maternal linage. This leaves very little for young man to do but politics and Islam.

[ramana]

HNair awesome call!

[Singha]

from facial features the people in maldives are not entire south indian or lankan. I can see as a crossroads of IOR trade and perhaps a way station for dhows, it has some malay and arab blood in the population. Malays ranged far and wide and there is a community of them in south africa and madagascar as well.

no matter how fun loving the people, once you get a hard core of indocrinated youth, preachers and generous saudi barbaria funded mosques and seminaries, the more liberal older mosques will get pushed out and their flock made to face stark choices and social pressure. kind of how the american EJ churches have the old syrian christians and catholics on the backfoot all over india by virtue of zeal and money power. sooner or later, trouble will erupt, just a period of unrestrained arab support to wahabis all over india resulted in pockets of caliphates like azamgarh and bhatkal. while a huge society like india can absorb these poisons and put counterpressure through pervasive reach of media and liberal popular culture, a tiny isolated community like maldives has ZERO CHANCE, unless external backing and a ruthless internal security periodically lances the wound, drains the pus and puts a bandage on it.

enjoying bollywood and indian music & curry is the last thing I would look at for pro-indian activity. I am sure the guys who make the Pak N-bomb incl Mubarakmand sir absolutely enjoy bollywood, a drink or two and crisp masala dosas. and the chinese who threaten to nuke LA if their toilet doesnt flush properly surely wear genuine Levi jeans, nike shoes and drink pepsi only.

[Theo_Fidel]

It is the old guard that is Islamist and put in the no other religion permitted clause. The old Mosques are the most intolerant. They have young freakshow cannon fodder. The young are like kids everywhere, irreverent and holier than thou at the same time.

[Satya_anveshi]

Based on their govt reports it does not appear that there is large scale immigration from other countries. However, there is a huge immigration into their capital city of Male from other islands of the nation which may have slightly different racial makeup(?).

I have modified my initial post with relevent factual information from the govt source to serve as intro.

The main takeaway is that for a long time of their recorded census history (1911-1958), population hovered at around 70K. But after that they got mighty busier and population exploded with growth rates of over 5% and consistently over 3% for long time (till 80s). Only recently the national growth rates declined but growth rate in capital Male continues higher (compensated by negative growth rates from the atolls).

It can be argued that this population explosion is highly correlated to the growth of Male with better civic infrastructure and a definte islamic influence among other factors.

[Satya_anveshi]

Did Nasheed hand over his resignation?

A reconstruction of events of February 7 – after speaking to several players – shows that Mr. Nasheed went up to the agitating policemen in the Republic Square and did not exactly befriend them. He told them that if they surrendered, then, they would be spared of major punishment. He was virtually reprimanding them, said one witness to the event.

The policemen did not budge. Next, Mr. Nasheed walks into the Integrated Headquarters of the Maldivian National Defence Forces – which is nearby, and demands that the MNDF take action against the policemen. MNDF pleaded with Mr. Nasheed: seniors told him that this was not advisable since many people too had joined the demonstrators. Also, the policemen were merely voicing their protest.

“You have to remember that the MNDF and the police were separated only in 2004. Most of the policemen who were agitating had worked with MNDF earlier,” said a diplomat. “It is not like in other countries where there is a mutiny and the Army can be called out to quell it,” he added.

There is still no clarity on what happened for the crucial few minutes from then on till he stepped out. Apparently, a few minutes later, MNDF personnel came out and announced to the restive crowd that Mr. Nasheed will resign. For this he needed to get to the Presidential office, a few metres away, the announcer said. He appealed to the crowd not to throw anything in the direction of the President.

Following this, MNDF men took positions on either side of the road and escorted him to the President's office. He went up to his chamber and wrote his resignation. It is not clear, again, if there was MNDF presence when he was signing it. Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) sources insist there was; and that the letter was snatched by the MNDF personnel and handed over to the Speaker. Government sources insist that he handed it over himself. Several calls to the Speaker on his mobile phone did not elicit a response.

Abdulla Yameen, parliamentary party leader of the Progressive Party of Maldives, and former President Gayoom's half-brother told The Hindu that Mr. Nasheed spoke to him soon after he resigned. “I was at the Indian High Commission. He called me and said he was resigning. Then he waits a whole day and tells the world that he resigned at gun point,” he said

[Agnimitra]

WSJ says:
Islamism Set Stage for Maldives Coup

In the weeks leading up to Tuesday's ouster of President Mohamed Nasheed, his political adversaries fomented opposition among conservative Muslims by claiming Mr. Nasheed's government was trying to undermine their faith.

[Satya_anveshi]

One of the peculiar aspect of Maldivian society is that it has highest divorce rates of all the countries. With ~11% divorce rates it beats the crap out of even USA which has ~4% divorce rate.

just another aspect of Islamic society going full steam with talaq, talaq, talaq and you are ready to get a new guest in the bed room.

[Satya_anveshi]

You have not been following Maldives society as it has moved over the last 20 years at the least. It is better not to believe the propaganda that emanates from Indian gov side [or afiliated spokespersons] when they reassure about the "essentially" "secular" "liberal" "not really Islamist or Islamist in name onlee" "XYZ studied/trained in India, gave such a big smile and promised the sky on such and such dinner date" type of inanities.

Follow up on the transitions that started through the theologian networks from countries now under the ubiquitious GCC, that "trained" a whole generation of political-theological activists from Maldives. The process started in earnest from early 90's, but the bases were placed even earlier in the 70's.

I think over the last 2 years I have posted several times on the growing Islamist trends and how the state itself was getting integrated with the Arabian sea islamism circuit.

B ji,

I have obviously not followed Maldives and I also agree (based on my impression so far) that there is a definite and marked shift towards Islamism and the impact it has left on Maldivian society.
However, my comment was only with respect to "Deobandi" version being prevelent among Maldivians.

Fundamental tenet of Deobandi school is being anti-west in its strictest form. When we see taliban and certain mullahs in puki land with long beards, quoting hadiths left, right, center, and waging jihad before and after namaz 5 times a day..that is the impression I have about deobandies. And that is not what I see among maldivians yet. They could very well shock us with that too.

[Satya_anveshi]

Maldives unrest: All Indians reportedly safe

Indians, who constitute a significant chunk of the total population of over three lakh in Maldives, are safe in the country, where as unrest erupted following a regime change four days ago.

There are about 29,000 Indians in the country and almost 22,000 of them live in Male, the capital

"Indians here are respected by the locals. Many of Indians are in the teaching profession or are doctors," an official with the High Commission here said.

He, however, said if fresh violence erupts, spillover effects cannot be ruled out completely. Refusing to give up his political ambitions, Nasheed, facing an arrest warrant has demanded fresh polls, as India stepped in to help the country defuse the situation.{read between the lines?}

[Theo_Fidel]

With ~11% divorce rates it beats the crap out of even USA which has ~4% divorce rate.

In Maldives it is mostly the women who divorce men.

[Satya_anveshi]

dang! (could be because more men than women? or is it because Maldives is really Mahiladeeva, as a theory on etymological roots of maldives suggest?

It has been identified that Maldivian tend to marry more than once in their lifetime and the usual
pattern is that this marriages occur to the same person but it not always the case. Frequency
distribution of number of persons married by age of those ever married is presented in Table 6. It
can be clearly seen that age and number of persons married has a direct relationship. It is worth
noting that 24 percent of women have had married to more than 2 different people by the age 40
and 22 percent of women have had married to 4 or more different people by the age of 50 and
above.

[Sri]

Well, No sources but a classmate who could be considered a chaiwala at MEA. Met him a few mins ago. He says the embassy at Male had reported 24 hours ago that Nasheed is going to resign and that as per constitution Vp will take over. Till that time no note had reached the PMO on the issue. Then the MEA contact Maldives Foreign secretary who also confirmed the same and said everything will happen according to constitution. So when he actually resigned and the VP guy took over and called PM who congratulated him and promised full support.

GoI got into a twist when after resigning Nasheed started calling foul. Furious PMO asked the babu manning the desk at MEA to go for himself and report back.

According to chaiwala, the theory is that nasheed had been told to resign long ago by VP / MNDF / police / Judiciary and he had agreed. But at last moment he decided to to resign as victim and played up the drama, knowing fully well MNDF will not support him...

Efforts will be there to climb down from initial 'welcome' position and to get the elections done immediately. But it has to be done tactfully as approx 38K Indians are there.

[devesh]

With ~11% divorce rates it beats the crap out of even USA which has ~4% divorce rate.

In Maldives it is mostly the women who divorce men.

then it means there is a ready made excuse for Islamists. in a society like that, it won't be hard to find insecure men. this can very effectively be channeled by the Mullahcracy. they can milk it all the way to the moon. men who are insecure b/c they can't keep women are the most easiest prey for Islam. it gives them a tailor made weapon to address their insecurities.

[brihaspati]

B ji,

I have obviously not followed Maldives and I also agree (based on my impression so far) that there is a definite and marked shift towards Islamism and the impact it has left on Maldivian society.
However, my comment was only with respect to "Deobandi" version being prevelent among Maldivians.

Fundamental tenet of Deobandi school is being anti-west in its strictest form. When we see taliban and certain mullahs in puki land with long beards, quoting hadiths left, right, center, and waging jihad before and after namaz 5 times a day..that is the impression I have about deobandies. And that is not what I see among maldivians yet. They could very well shock us with that too.

Wrong. Deobandis are all about reinstalling the supremacy of Islm and Islamization of all of the subcontinent. They see the west as having been the instrument of empoweriing the Hindu and an obstacle in other ways to this islamization. You will need to follow their own literature and not be taken in by the Nehruvian highlighting of their supposed opposition to formmation of "Pakistan". The opposition was because of the Sunni distrust of the Shia minority and Aga Khan sponsorship of the separatism - more an internal sectarian jealousy of loss of control overIslamization of India - not actual separation.

[ramana]

Hindu reports:

http://www.thehindu.com/news/internatio ... 883462.ece

After India's groundwork, U.S. presses for Maldives coalition
R. K. Radhakrishnan
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Former Maldivian President Mohamed Nasheed, right, and U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Robert Blake laugh during a meeting in Male on Saturday. Photo:AP
Former Maldivian President Mohamed Nasheed, right, and U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Robert Blake laugh during a meeting in Male on Saturday. Photo:AP
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NEWS
Early elections unlikely in Maldives Nasheed disappointed with India’s response Blake: U.S. will work with new government After India's groundwork, U.S. presses for Maldives coalition
TOPICS
civil unrest political dissent
rebellions
revolutions
unrest, conflicts and war coup d'etat

Mohammed Nasheed is likely to talk to the new regime

After India did the groundwork of talking long hours to all parties to the conflict in the Maldives, the United States has stepped in to ensure that the new government sticks to its professed mandate of forming a unity government.

Both M. Ganapathi, Secretary (West), Ministry of External Affairs, and U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia Robert O' Blake held meetings with the former President, Mohammed Nasheed, the new President, Waheed Hassan, and other players. They stressed that the formation of a truly rainbow coalition was in the best interests of the people. The Maldivian Democratic Party of Mr. Nasheed will also talk to the new regime on joining the government.

A sense of uncertainty has gripped the Maldives since Mr. Nasheed resigned as President on February 7.

As mandated by the Constitution, his Vice-President, Dr. Waheed, was sworn in. Mr. Nasheed kept quiet for a day, but his supporters clashed with the police next day, and he claimed that he was ousted in a coup.

On Friday, he demanded fresh elections. After meeting Mr. Blake on Saturday, Mr. Nasheed was in a contemplative mood, saying everything happens for the good.

Dr. Waheed, a relatively weaker politician but with vast administrative experience, said he expected a Cabinet to be in place over the next few days. He has promised that Mr. Nasheed would be protected and hoped that “the police would not show enthusiasm in carrying out the [arrest] warrant.”

Finally, the international community started toeing the same line on the events leading to Mr. Nasheed's resignation. The United Kingdom has already pressed for an investigation. Asked whether the Maldives incidents could be termed a coup, Mr. Ganapathi said this was to be determined by the political leadership. “I think we will go by the political leadership's decision and the Constitution of the Maldives,” he said.

And Mr. Blake said the U.S. wanted an independent investigation.

Dr. Waheed said he was ready for an independent inquiry into the incidents that led to Mr. Nasheed's resignation.Asked whether “independent” meant international, he said he did not want to pre-empt any kind of probe. Making any comment would prejudice the issue, he said, calling for broader discussions.

Whats going on?

[devesh]

most importantly, the Jamia Darul Uloom Deoband was founded right after 1857. the fact that the colonial authorities allowed the establishment of such an institution right after that conflict is very interesting. they were trying to purge and liquidate any and all section which revolted against them. under those conditions, it is highly surprising that they would let a huge institution establish itself and train thousands of students every year if they were *really* "anti-West" or anti-Colonial-Imperialism. the Gangetic belt experienced huge purges after 1857. under those circumstances, the Deoband was founded. the notion that they were founded predominantly on the basis of "anti-Westernism" is a falsity.

the very fact that the Brits allowed it to happen says that they were confidant and felt secure of the objectives of the Deobandis. they saw in the Deobandis a useful tool for future manipulations. this is much is common sense, looking at the foundational situation of the institution.

[nawabs]

Maldives crisis: Commonwealth ministers to meet

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-16998151

A Commonwealth ministerial watchdog will convene within a day. It has the power to suspend member states.Commonwealth officials said Secretary-General Kamalesh Sharma had called for a teleconference of the Commonwealth Ministerial Action Group, a group of nine foreign ministers from the 54-member bloc.

Mr Waheed said on Friday that the election campaign had already started for scheduled polls for the end of 2013.
The new leader also said Mr Nasheed had acted "like a dictator" and was now trying to stage a "show" for international media.Mr Nasheed says he is no longer calling for his reinstatement as president, but wants snap elections to resolve the stand-off.

[nawabs]

Resorts accused in Maldives coup

http://www.smh.com.au/world/resorts-acc ... 1sy9f.html

The former president ousted in a coup last week has accused resort owners of plotting to overthrow him in reaction to his vision of a free-market paradise.
Mohamed Nasheed said some owners of the Maldives' beach resorts financed the coup because they resented competition for contracts and fixed direct taxes.
He said his own intelligence officers confirmed their involvement in the coup in a marriage of convenience with Muslim extremists.
They had led street protests against his government's decision to allow massage and health spas to proliferate.
''I was ousted for bringing a Western conservative vision to the Maldives,'' he said.
After he came to power in 2008, advised by a team of British Conservative Party campaigners, Mr Nasheed privatised the country's main airport, introduced compulsory private health insurance, and imposed a tax system to make the country self-reliant.
''The coup was financed by resort owners … not just one but many,'' he said. ''They liked the old order of corruption. We were rocking the boat, taxing them. ''

[nawabs]

Fearing coup, Nasheed got India to back him in 2010

http://www.indianexpress.com/news/feari ... 0/910932/0

Mohammed Nasheed may now claim that that he was forced to quit office, but the fact is that the former Maldivian president had to be bailed out more than once through his crisis-ridden presidency. The closest shave was in 2010, when he survived after India firmly backed him.

Even then New Delhi was cautious not to rush in military back-up as Nasheed had hoped for, but a Navy ship did make an innocuous port call at the height of the 2010 crisis. Also, an aircraft from the ARC (RAW’s aviation wing) was flown to Male just to assure Nasheed that his safety was a priority for India. In fact, after this, a regular contingency plan was put in place for Maldives, which included Indian para commandos taking control of Male airport within four hours of any emergency. This alert was in place even now, but the government decided against any overt intervention.

In 2010, India had responded to an urgent message from Nasheed that he feared a coup after his decision to place the Deputy Speaker of Parliament Ahmed Nazir under house arrest had provoked almost all entities in the fragile Maldivian system. He found himself in a stand-off with the Opposition, the police and judiciary. The military was still taking his orders, but its top brass was getting restive at being asked to follow instructions which had been deemed illegal by the Supreme Court.

The crux of the problem was the same as now. Nasheed’s Maldives Democratic Party (MDP) does not enjoy a majority in the 77-member Parliament. In the 2009 parliamentary elections, the MDP had secured 28 seats and managed support of four Independents but that was still short of the halfway mark.

Though Maldives has a presidential system in place, the latest Constitution of 2008 wrested considerable powers from the President, including the authority to decide on subsidies and levying taxes. Also, each cabinet member has to be confirmed by the Parliament.

Nasheed was then finding it difficult to get the Parliament to approve his cabinet members and, at one point, the ministers even resigned in protest. In that heated scenario, he had gone ahead and ordered the arrest of the Deputy Speaker. The judiciary immediately rejected the plea for a warrant. And so, the police chief refused to carry out the arrest without court’s consent.

At that stage, Nasheed had asked the Army to arrest Nazim. The military, which comes directly under the President, reluctantly complied and placed the Deputy Speaker under preventive custody. But later, the top brass conveyed its disapproval of Nasheed’s ways to key Indian interlocutors.

With all arms of the Maldivian political system pointing fingers at Nasheed, he feared ouster and sent out an SOS to New Delhi. The government here asked intelligence and security agencies to move fast and secure Nasheed’s position. There was overwhelming support for him among the security agencies because of his “extraordinary” cooperation on sensitive issues.

It’s learnt that Nasheed would regularly send lists of Maldivian students studying in India, who were suspected radicals. In fact, it was this effort which led to the discovery that many fundamentalist Maldivian groups were sending terror recruits in the garb of students to India, who would later smuggle themselves into Pakistan for training. He had also agreed to far-reaching defence arrangements with India after 26/11.

So when the SOS came, senior officials were dispatched who spoke to the Chief of the Maldives Army, the police head, leader of the Opposition and judicial members. Soon, sources said, it came to light that Nasheed had been authoritarian and had, in fact, not even spoken to the LoP in six months. The Police and the Army were equally upset with his outlandish orders.

In the weeks that followed, Indian interlocutors worked behind the scenes to broker peace, arranged a marathon meeting between Nasheed and the Opposition leaders to let Parliament function and counselled Nasheed to accept the reality of numbers in a democracy. For the next couple of years, officials were regularly sent from New Delhi to counsel him on political issues.

But, sources said, he continued to harbour authoritative instincts which he felt were naturally bestowed on the President’s office. So when he acted against the judiciary this time, there was a spontaneous revolt which, officials believe, was beyond cure by India’s subtle interventions.

Any truth in the newspapers claim about the incident in 2010?

[Prem]

http://www.rediff.com/news/slide-show/s ... 120211.htm
The Indian government appears to have been caught napping in the Maldives on two counts, says security expert B Raman.

First, the Indian government failed to foresee the implications of some arbitrary actions of former President Mohammed Nasheed such as the arrest of the chief judge of the criminal court and disciplinary action against a Sandhurst-trained colonel of the Maldives National Defence Force, who were perceived to be anti-Nasheed and advise him to desist from such actions.These actions antagonised the judiciary and created fissures in the MNDF and the police. These elements joined hands with anti-Nasheed protesters in forcing him to quit as the President.Secondly, it failed to realise that despite his antagonising the judiciary and sections of the police and the MNDF, Nasheed retained considerable popular support particularly among the younger generation and was in a position to take the battle against his opponents to the streets.Instead of keeping quiet till the street equations became clear and instead of desisting from any action that might be misinterpreted as granting legitimacy to the MNDF-engineered replacement of Nasheed by his Vice-President Mohammed Wahid Hasan, the Indian government prematurely made statements that were interpreted in Maldives as amounting to the Indian government's abandoning its support to the democratically-elected President.hen Nasheed's supporters, with a defiant Nasheed at their head, took the battle against their opponents to the streets, the Indian government found itself with its credibility badly weakened

[ramana]

The spin articles coming in Ind Exp showing how GOI ws on the ball in Maldives and the fact that no US and UK are in the forefront of restoring order shows that GOI had abandoned its role in the island nation.
The MEA bureaucrats from Secy West to the High commissioner should be replaced.
The worst spin is the news about how the Nasheed govt was keeping India informed of its dissidents.

We have a rubber spined govt that does not promote Indian interests.

[Satya_anveshi]

I don't have anything to back this up but based on Wiki Bio it looks like he spent quite a bit of time including education in UK/West. Was quite a postor boy during copehhagen climate summit. Remember Climate is a weapon of the developed to screw developing. Nasheed was quite ready to be used to whack the developing. Maldives is a text book case to further the spurious agenda of west with regard to climate.

There seems to be bottom-up frustration in maldives (people, law enforcement, and military) all opposed to him. But a large section of those revolting also have propensity to Islam.

If there are only two sides, who will you bet on?

[shyamd]

It was a coup and all the news prior to it occurring fits perfectly with a text book coup. By the way, the maldivians are well versed in coup attempts - there have been attempted coups in the 70's, 80, 83 and 88. Textbooks include some of these examples.

Maldives president agrees to 'coup' probe

Under international pressure.

Both sides are to blame - Nasheed committed his share of blunders. But that is no excuse for a coup with elections just a year away.

So far Dilli is following exactly what I had said - send a senior MEA guy to basically force an election to happen soon. Let Nasheed re-group and ensure his security and ability to contest election.

[Theo_Fidel]

People don't understand how crowded Male is.

The Indian embassy is 200 feet from presidential palace. At least used to be. Two buildings west is the foreign ministry. Right next to it is the State Bank of India building. Yes the Indian embassy was smack in the middle. Inside this area is 20,000 Indians. Nothing happens without India knowing. All the stake holders at the high levels check in with India at all times. Maldivians are extraordinarily garrulous and the concept of state secret does not exist.

[ramana]

Then why was the Indian response so slow and unsure?

Again I think the HC and MEA were checked out. And to that the UPA didn't know what are Indian interests in Maldives.

B Ramanji is also finding a lapse.

Nasheed says resort owners conspired with Islamist elements to attempt a coup. Sort of Mossadeg type ouster.
And now UK and US are rushing in. So what gives?

[Muppalla]

Then why was the Indian response so slow and unsure?

Again I think the HC and MEA were checked out. And to that the UPA didn't know what are Indian interests in Maldives.

B Ramanji is also finding a lapse.

Nasheed says resort owners conspired with Islamist elements to attempt a coup. Sort of Mossadeg type ouster.
And now UK and US are rushing in. So what gives?

By thinking out of the box - I guess the UPA wants this to happen. See the Indian ocean rim nations are being used for money laundering ops after a tight leash on Swiss and Luxemburg types. Nausheed may be a hindrance for free flow of the money to India via maldives route. Gayoom and the resorts in Maldives could be the conduits for money laundering and transfering stuff.

[Theo_Fidel]

Possibly because every other week there is a rumor of a plot. When I lived there 4 men were arrested at a tea-kaddai for yelling abuses at a Gayoom functionary walking down the street. They were arrested it was announced as a coup plot the next day. Three days later they were released and were back in front of the tea -kaddai.

India controls Maldives economically. All economic interests pass through it. Even back then the Indian embassy and banks financed every one of the resort islands. India essentially owns the resort owners. I found it laughable that they would attempt a coup. The resort islands essentially function as their own nations. They pretty much do as they feel like. Male has no real power to enforce anything. The Indian banks decide where the money flows.

I suspect the Indian embassy did not see any economic threats from the VP taking over and quietly refused to intervene. This is not the sort of thing where you intervene publicly. As far as I know even the last Indian military intervention on the Lankan Tamil coup attempt is barely acknowledged officially. If you asked the Indian embassy in Male they won't even remember it. Kind of interesting that the battalion was sitting in Thiruvananthapuram airport. Undoubtedly another battalion waits in Thiruvananthapuram if needed. Amerika and poodle will return with their tails between their legs.

[shyamd]

Why use the resort owners? This is common in countries where businesses enjoy large political clout - in this case we know that maldives runs mainly on tourism. Its common in coups in places in africa - especially Congo - where there is one large mine etc with immense clout - so they have to seek their approval or at worst neutrality.

You need to be able to coopt the great power of the region or at worst get their neutrality. Gayoom is known to have set up offices in Colombo and Delhi and tried to get meetings with bigwigs. Rajapakse refused to meet him. Unclear who he met in Delhi. But they said SL and India gave Gayoom the cold shoulder.
Neutrality is basically a green light for a coup. You must be able to intervene within 12 -24 hours. It couldn't have taken place without GoI approval.

If you want more info, I can email you Edward Luttwak's book - Coup d Etat which explains the A-Z.

[ramana]

Exactly my point. "Maunam ardhangikaarm!"
Or
Silence is half-acceptance.


So why were the MEA silent or they are too modern to understand power play?

When B. Ramanji fulminates there is some thing basically wrong.

[shyamd]

^^Agreed. Lets see. Not clear yet, I think we need to closely monitor news and see what we spot.

Early elections unlikely in Maldives

R. K. Radhakrishnan
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In the face of mounting pressure from the international community and from some friends, it appears that the former President, Mohamed Nasheed, has backed off from his non-negotiable demand of holding early elections.

Mr. Nasheed's main demand — that presidential elections have to be held — has found no acceptance with the new government, opposition parties, civil society or the international community that matters here. Because of the impasse that this has led to, India was in favour of more discussions.

While India does not have a definitive view, officials pointed out that according to Article 124 of the Constitution, elections will have to be held in November 2013. “Right now the emphasis is to help them come up with a working government that is broadly acceptable to all parties,” the official added.

U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for south and central Asia Robert O' Blake said after his consultations, he came to the conclusion that early elections would not be possible. “Members of civil society told me that the country is not ready for early elections because the police, the Election Commission and judiciary, are not sufficiently prepared to ensure free and fair elections,” he said to a question.

“The United States hopes that the broadest coalition possible can be formed and that would have a majority in Parliament. This coalition should then work with all parties to reform and improve the capacity of the judiciary, the police and election commission to ensure that elections can be held in an orderly and peaceful manner,” he added.

Mr. Blake said no one believed that elections could be prepared right now because of the shortcomings. “Perhaps, elections much later in the year could be announced. Again, that is something for all parties themselves to think about it,” he added.

Both India and the U.S. expressed the hope that the party that Mr. Nasheed belongs to would form the new government of national unity. “I can tell you that a number of good ideas are now being explored to try to find ways to bring the MDP into this national unity government,” said Mr. Blake. “But it is upto the parties themselves to decide…I think in a situation like this, if you want to form national unity government that has the participation of all parties, including the MDP, I think everybody has to compromise. And, from what I heard, there is a spirit of willingness in elements of all parties to find that compromise,” he added.

Indian concerns

India was more concerned about the precarious economic situation of the islands, and its lack of progress in building suitable institutions of democracy. “If there is chaos and no government, even if people are suffering, there is no one we can channel aid or any other support,” he said. This is the most important issue today.

The economy has been on a freefall of late, and dollar has become a scarce commodity. Overseas workers have been told that there would not be able to repatriate more than $1000 a month. Maldives has also imposed a Goods and Services Tax and a profit tax recently to shore up sagging revenue.

The other Indian concern was the state of the institutions — mainly the judiciary and the police. “They need time to work on reforms in these two crucial areas. Otherwise the same story, as it happened now, will keep repeating all over with greater frequency,' he added.

'India offers asylum to Maldives’ ex-leader'

Link

The Indian envoy also said the new Maldivian President had assured him that all foreign investments including those of India would be protected. This came amidst critcism that the ousted president had sold the Male international airport to India’s GMR for a paltry sum.

No intervention: Delhi

- PM asks ‘Maldivians themselves’ to resolve crisis
OUR SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT
Mohamed Nasheed, the former President of the Maldives, at his residence in Male on Saturday. (AFP)

New Delhi, Feb. 11: India today asked Maldivians to resolve their crisis and ruled out intervening in the tiny nation’s internal affairs even as signs emerged that ousted ruler Mohamed Nasheed may yet have his way with world leaders.

On a day of hectic parleys, Washington qualified its recognition of the Mohamed Waheed government, while Barack Obama’s emissary Robert Blake persuaded the new Maldives President to face an independent investigation into the transfer of power that his predecessor alleged was a coup.

After the meeting with Blake, Waheed said he had given the visiting US assistant secretary of state an assurance that he was “completely open” to such a probe.

Manmohan Singh’s envoy Madhusudan Ganapathi, who met Waheed, handed the new President a letter from the Prime Minister. Ganapathi later said the missive asked “Maldivians themselves to resolve (their internal issues) peacefully and democratically within the framework of the Constitution of the Maldives”.

Ganapathi, who also met Nasheed, new home minister Mohamed Jamil, the chief justice of the country’s apex court and local politicians and discussed the situation with Blake and the British high commissioner to the Maldives, said there was no question of Delhi’s intervention. “There is no countenancing of any intervention at all. It is engagement. It is for Maldivians to take charge,” he said.

“The situation is, of course, complex. We would like to see it resolved in an atmosphere of calm and peace so that it does not affect the common man in the Maldives,” Ganapathi, secretary (west) in the external affairs ministry, said.

Asked if India had lost out by not supporting Nasheed on Tuesday, when he resigned, given that the new defence and home ministers were known anti-India campaigners, Ganapathi said this wasn’t a “cricket match”.

“This is a serious issue…. I think we remain to be continuously engaged with (former) President Nasheed and his team. We have had discussions over the last two days. As I mentioned, the high commissioner here has been talking to everyone and this engagement has been appreciated in my meetings also with Nasheed and the other political leaders, including President Waheed,” Ganapathi said.

At a meeting in the Security Council, most nations agreed that India had a pre-eminent role to play in resolving the crisis in the Indian Ocean archipelago.

Asked if Tuesday’s events amounted to a coup or not, Ganapathi said: “I think we will go by the political leadership’s decision. And the Constitution of the Maldives.”

Nasheed has claimed he was forced out of power at gunpoint.

Delhi disputes Nasheed’s version of the events leading to the transfer of power, but yesterday agreed with the former President’s demand for early elections. A Reuters report, however, quoted Blake as saying that many people he met felt immediate elections were not feasible.

But Washington qualified its Thursday’s recognition of the Waheed government. Asked on Thursday if the US recognised Waheed’s government, state department spokesperson Victoria Nuland had said: “We do.”

Nasheed yesterday said he was “very unhappy” with Washington’s response.

Washington soon issued a clarification. “The United States will work with the new government of the Maldives but believes that the circumstances surrounding the transfer of power must be clarified, and suggests all parties agree to an independent mechanism to do so,” the state department clarification said.

After his meeting with Obama’s envoy Blake, Waheed said no one had questioned the legality of his assuming office. “(But) there are some questions as to what preceded my assumption of office. This is why we are saying we are completely open to an independent investigation.”

A Commonwealth official said the secretary-general had called an extraordinary meeting of nine foreign ministers who form the Commonwealth Ministerial Action Group , the 54-member group’s democracy watchdog, “to review the circumstances pertaining to the transfer of power”.

That Nasheed was a popular head of state among his international peers is evident from interview British Prime Minister David Cameron gave in November. Asked which five world leaders of the present or past he would invite on a stag weekend being organised by Silvio Berlusconi, Cameron had mentioned Nasheed, his “new best friend”.

[ramana]

The main pointer to Indian confusion is that there is no name for the High Commissioner. And there is regular flip flop on the Indian stand.
The fact that the Indian official doesn't want his name to Hindu shows how much accountability he believes in.
The day MEA starts giving name to their spokes persons they would have arrived. THis hiding behind anonymous sources shows they are hedging.

If there is a coup anywere else all bets are off.

[g.sarkar]

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld ... 3032.story
Maldives issues arrest warrant for ex-President Mohamed Nasheed
It is unclear what charges the former Maldives president faces. The upheaval in the strategic Indian Ocean nation has sparked concern that China may exploit the unrest.
By Mark Magnier, Los Angeles Times
February 9, 2012, 6:46 p.m.
Reporting from New Delhi—
A criminal court issued an arrest warrant Thursday for deposed Maldivian President Mohamed Nasheed amid fear of further violence in the Indian Ocean nation after rioting the day before. It wasn't immediately clear what the charges against him were in the confusing and fast-evolving political crisis.
Newly installed President Mohammed Waheed Hassan moved Thursday to assemble a Cabinet, naming defense and home ministers who have had differences with Nasheed.
The jockeying and political upheaval come at a sensitive time for a country that held its first democratic election four years ago. The turmoil also provides a potential opening for China, which has been angling to expand its influence on India's doorstep, given the Maldives' strategic location astride Asia's main oil shipping lanes. And a protracted crisis could threaten the idyllic archipelago's tourism industry if it starts scaring away European and American travelers.
Nasheed, 44, spent much of Thursday with reporters and allies at his house as several hundred supporters formed a cordon outside under umbrellas in the inclement weather. Local news reports said the deposed president had sent his family to Sri Lanka while he awaited arrest.
Government officials and local reporters said a warrant was also issued Thursday for former Defense Minister Tholhath Ibrahim Kaleyfaanu......."
Gautam

[g.sarkar]

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/12/world ... ?ref=world
Party in Maldives Rejects Offer of a Unity Coalition
By VIKAS BAJAJ
Published: February 11, 2012
MALE, Maldives — The political turmoil continued in the Maldives on Saturday as the party of the former president, who says he was ousted last week in a quiet coup, refused to consider joining the government of the new president.
The current president, Mohammed Waheed Hassan, made the offer of a unity cabinet in what appeared to be an effort to tamp down sometimes violent clashes between security forces and backers of the former president, Mohamed Nasheed. But that seemed guaranteed to be a hard sell: Mr. Nasheed’s backers have accused Mr. Hassan of being part of a conspiracy to snatch power.
United Nations and United States officials have been pushing for a deal to end the unrest in the island nation, which sits amid busy international shipping lanes and where the United States and others fear Islamists could gain ground.
On Saturday, Robert O. Blake, a United States assistant secretary of state, met separately with Mr. Nasheed and Mr. Hassan to press for a compromise.
Mr. Hassan’s offer to have representatives of Mr. Nasheed’s party in the cabinet came at a later news conference. Mr. Hassan also said he would open an independent investigation into the circumstances that led to Mr. Nasheed’s leaving office.
Mr. Nasheed, who became the first democratically elected leader of the country in 2008, first said he resigned Tuesday for the good of the country because the security forces had turned against him, but he later said he had been forced out.
The spark for the unrest was Mr. Nasheed’s decision to have a judge arrested, which critics said was an example of Mr. Nasheed’s penchant for overstepping his power. But Mr. Nasheed says the judge was blocking his attempts to hold the government of a former autocratic leader, Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, responsible for corruption.
Mr. Nasheed and his supporters have accused allies and supporters of Mr. Gayoom of being behind the efforts to unseat the democratically elected government. Although they have been careful not to say the new president joined with Mr. Gayoom, they have pointed out that Mr. Gayoom’s people are now part of the new leadership........"
Gautam

[brihaspati]

http://minivannews.com/society/politics ... party-6050
April 19, 2010

Islam and politics are inseparable and it is unIslamic to suggest otherwise, President of the Adhaalath Party Sheikh Hussein Rasheed has announced. ”I regret that there are some MPs also who are claiming that politics and Islam should be separated, after taking a oath swearing that they would respect the religion of Islam,” Sheikh Hussein said. ”Politics and religion cannot be separated.”

State Minister for Islamic Affairs Mohamed Shaheem Ali Saeed told Minivan News that Islam was a comprehensive religion containing information on economy, family, social, business, communication, politics, military “and many more things.” Shaheem claimed that separating politics from religion was “a Christian philosophy from the 1940s.” ”The Christians at that time were influenced by the power of their kings and popes, ” Shaheem said, ”so they fought together for their rights and demanded the separation of religion from politics, and that was the time democracy was born.”

Shaheem noted that there were some principles of democracy which were contrary to Islamic principles. ”There are many things that are similar things and there are some things we refuse,” he said. “The resolution in democracy is ‘to keep the religion separated from the state.”’

The Prophet Mohamed (PBUH) was also a good politician, Shaheem explained.
”Those who suggest religion should be separated from politics are not apostates,” he said. “They are only saying such things because of their lack of knowledge.”

He said the Islamic Ministry was a part of the government and the government cooperated the ministry. The President’s Press Secretary Mohamed Zuhair said the Adhaalath Party was “power hungry” in accusing the government of secularism.

Newspaper Miadhu today reported Adhaalath party member Sheikh Ilyas Hussain as saying the government had forgotten the Adhaalath’s Party’s role in the country’s democratic transition and that the presence of the party was one of the reasons the new government had been accepted.

If dialogue failed to keep the government on the right path, Sheikh Illyas warned, the party would “not hesitate to fight against this government like we did the last one.”

He further claimed there were groups within the country that had begun challenging the party’s efforts to promote Islam, and that such trends were bringing the party’s patience to an end.

Zuhair claimed some of the party’s scholars were ”directly lying to the people.”
”We support the work they are doing politically, because according to the new law any political party with less than 3000 members should be disbanded. If so, how are they supposed to be in the government if they are not a political party?”

He said the government had provided mosques for people, appointed Imams to the mosques and established the Islamic Ministry. ”We do not know why they are saying all this about the government,” he said. ”We can’t worship in our offices.”

The signals were there. We simply refused to acknowledge them.

ramana ji,
the current so-called apparent facilitation of the "coup" by Delhi - which is being supported by the Islamist faction, could be related to the pattern set by the Deobandi demand that Rushdie does not visit India.

And Rushdie did not visit India.

The current crop of Adhalaathis have ideological and other connections to Deoband.

So, perhaps the coup had to be allowed.

[ramana]

Bji,

http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 5#p1240445

I guess local elections in India are staying the govt's hands.


I guess all they will do is express concerns and wring their hands.

hope am wrong.

[brihaspati]

For all those who never saw islamist excesses in Maldives:
http://www.articlesbase.com/journalism- ... 82345.html

Independent journalist and blogger, Ismail ‘Hilath' Rasheed, whose personal blog was censored by the Maldivian government last month, was among those attacked, sustaining serious injuries to the head. Others who attempted to intervene also suffered minor injuries.

Ahmed Hassan, one of the protesters, said, "We planned a silent sit down protest in order to make a statement over the lack of religious freedom for minorities, especially those who aren't Sunni Muslims."

"We are entering the fourth year of democracy but unfortunately, many basic freedoms and rights have yet to be achieved for all Maldivians. It is unacceptable in this day and age that non-Muslim Maldivians are discriminated against in their own country," he said. "This is their country as much as ours."
.....
The injured protester, Hilath, has also previously faced death-threats over his vocal criticism of Islamic radicalism on his personal blog.

The peaceful non-islamic and completely tolerant and never visible innocent art of public flogging especially of women who can however freely divorce:

Million-Man March of bigotry

As the rest of the world celebrates the International Human Rights day to commemorate the adoption of the UDHR, a network of NGOs in the Maldives and seven political parties are preparing to conduct a large protest on December 23 – with organisers vowing to assemble a rather ambitious 100,000 protesters, including mothers and their newborns, in order to ‘protect Islam'.

The protests were announced in the aftermath of a speech delivered in parliament by Navi Pillay, the visiting UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, after she sought the removal of discriminatory clauses in the Constitution towards non-Muslims, as well as an open debate on the subject of degrading punishments like public flogging that are still practised in the Maldives.

Pillay argued that flogging as a form of punishment was "cruel and demeaning to women", while pointing out that apart from just one other Islamic country, the practice wasn't condoned even among Muslim nations.

Available statistics appear to support the claim that women are disproportionately affected by punishments such as flogging. Mariyam Omidi, then Editor of Minivan News, reported in a 2009 article that according to government statistics, out of 184 people sentenced to flogging for ‘fornication', 146 were women.

However, the report was met with outrage from conservative sections of the public who gathered with placards at the same venue where the protesters were attacked yesterday, and demanded that the journalist be deported.

There was simply no room for intelligent discussion on the subject and the offending statistic mysteriously disappeared from government websites not long afterwards.

The completely secular 30 years and the secular coup which revealed the overwhelming secularity of Maldives:

For 30 years, former President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom carefully consolidated the state's authority over personal beliefs by successfully selling the idea of a ‘100 percent Sunni Muslim' nation, and making the Dhivehi Identity virtually synonymous with Sunni Islam, which needed to be fiercely protected at all times from ever-present, invisible threats.

One of Gayoom's most damaging legacies is that a paranoid Maldives found itself among the top ten countries in the world noted for religious intolerance, according to a study by the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life published in 2009.

Employing religion to keep his citizens in check was a master stroke that ensured him a long reign, but Gayoom's chickens came home to roost in the dying days of his regime when the democratic uprising threw up a medley of ultra-conservative mullahs who would take over the religious mantle from Gayoom.

Following the first democratic Presidential elections, the ultra-conservative Adhaalath Party assumed control of the newly created Ministry of Islamic Affairs, and took upon themselves the onerous responsibility of deciding who were the ‘true Muslims' and what constituted ‘true Islam'.

It didn't help matters that despite the freedom of speech granted by the constitution, the mainstream Maldivian media continues to exercise strict self-censorship when it comes to issues of religion and human rights.

The subject remains taboo among other public institutions and agencies as well, as evidenced by the statement released by the Maldivian Human Rights Commission yesterday on the occasion of Human Rights day, which glaringly omits any mention of minority rights or non-Muslim Dhivehin.

Speaking at a National Awards ceremony last month, President Nasheed gently rebuked his citizens for reacting ‘in a Jihadi manner' over the Navi Pillay controversy.

Instead, he exhorted the citizens to "have the courage to be able to listen to and digest what people tell us, what we hear and what we see"

President Nasheed would have done well to foster this spirit in his own government which, in the first few months after coming to power, shut down several websites that were allegedly critical of his then coalition partner, the Adhaalath Party.

Less than two weeks before he implored his citizens to have the courage to digest others' opinions, President Nasheed's government banned the blog of independent journalist Hilath who had been critical of Islamists in the government.

As for the vandalism of non-muslim icons/idols only now being discovered for the first time this year : (this is about the 17th SAARC summit)

The President would also do well to convey his ideas to his erudite Islamic Minister, Dr Abdul Majeed Abdul Baree whose response to the call for open discussion on the subject was merely, "No Muslim has the right to advocate against flogging for fornication."

The Islamic Minister had also previously condemned the presence of commemorative monuments presented by participating nations in the recently concluded 17th SAARC summit in Addu.

Burning Bridges

The destructive outcome of emotive politics of hatred, strife and fear was clearly demonstrated by the hyper-paranoid religious vandals who burnt, damaged and stole multiple SAARC monuments because they allegedly depicted ‘idols of worship'.

One police officer on duty guarding the monument recollected being approached by hostile members of the general public asking why they were guarding "temples".

The opposition parties, seeing political expediency even in the most unfortunate acts of xenophobic vandalism, quickly hailed the vandals as "national heroes".

In a related incident, some MPs of the Progressive Party, including MP Ahmed Mahloof apparently hijacked a ferry in a valiant effort to save Islam from a banner hung at the International Airport, before they were intercepted by the Police and diverted to another island.

The offending banner at the airport depicted an image of Jesus Christ, a Buddhist chakra, and other religious motifs symbolising the religious diversity of South Asia, which the design consultants who came up with the concept said was in keeping with this year's SAARC summit's theme of ‘Building bridges'.

Notably, none of these MPs had anything to say on the young non-Muslim Maldivian man who hung himself from a tower at that very airport in July 2010, following immense pressure from family and state religious authorities after he, in his own words, "foolishly admitted (his) non-religious stance" to friends and colleagues.

[brihaspati]

ramanaji,
Its not just the local elections. Not a single instance exists where the Deoband sentiments have not been given priority - increasingly so. Problem with dynastic powers is that they rely on special whisperers. The whisperers can amplify the importance of one while reducing the importance of another.

[ramana]

ZeeNews reports

Maldives Crisis means trouble for India

If Zee gets it how come MEA doesn't?

Maldives is in the news. The land of deep blue sea and white sand beaches is catching the world’s attention because of political chaos in the country. An uneasy calm prevails on the streets of the Maldivian capital, Male, after a week of protests and clashes, and of course the ouster of President Mohamed Nasheed.

Nasheed insists he was deposed at gunpoint in a coup. He has called for early polls, but the new President has rejected his demand. Maldives' first democratically-elected leader has defied an arrest warrant and vowed to take the fight to the Supreme Court. The future of the Indian Ocean island nation appears to be cloudy.

Tensions are high in Indian political circles as well because hard-line Islam also played a role in overthrowing the government in Maldives. India just cannot afford an instable Maldives.

In an exclusive interview with Kamna Arora of Zeenews.com, Dr Anand Kumar, an expert on South Asia, discusses the ongoing political chaos in Maldives and the role of India in the whole scenario.

Dr Anand Kumar is Associate Fellow at Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi.

Kamna: The chain of events in Maldives this week was murky. Did Mohamed Nasheed resign voluntarily or was he pushed out from power at gunpoint? What are the reports that you are getting?

Dr Kumar: It is not clear whether Nasheed resigned at gunpoint. But what is clear is that Nasheed resigned at the point when there was no option left other than bloodbath.

The protests against his regime engineered by the opposition and the Islamists have been going on for quite some time. Some of the policies of the Nasheed government were reversed under the pressure of Islamists. But the protest against the government turned into a clash between the executive and the judiciary when Nasheed ordered the military to arrest the top criminal court judge in his country. This alienated some of the supporters of his regime. It also started a rebellion in police, subsequently joined by small number of Army men. It is possible that some of these people could have been supporters of Maumoon Abdul Gayoom. When police captured the office of MDP (Nasheed’s Party) and radio station and started declaring support in favour of Gayoom, the only way left for Nasheed was to ask military to fire on these people. This option could have led to bloodbath and a grave situation in Maldives. At this point, Nasheed chose to resign.

Kamna: Can the ongoing political chaos in Maldives pave the way for a resurgent Islamist movement?

Dr Kumar: A resurgent Islamist movement has been going on in Maldives. In fact, the Islamists gathered strength with the coming of multi-party democracy. Though Nasheed’s government was secular, the prevailing democracy in the country provided a lot of space to the Islamists. The Islamists used this to their advantage. This situation is likely to continue in the near future.

Kamna: Can the Maldives crisis spell trouble for India too?

Dr Kumar: The Maldives crisis definitely means trouble for India. Though Maldives is a small country, it is strategically located. It is situated in the Indian Ocean at a location where major sea lanes of communication pass through. Powers inimical to Indian security interests have been trying to get a foothold here. The prevailing chaos in the country might provide them with the opportunity they were looking for. India has invested a lot of political and economic capital in Maldives. All this would be at stake if anarchy continues there.

Kamna: The United States has backtracked from its swift recognition of the new Maldives government. Do you think India should have waited to get the clear picture on the post-coup situation before announcing its support to new Maldivian President Mohamed Waheed?

Dr Kumar: Definitely, India should have waited for some time. It should have taken a decision on this only after a clear picture had emerged. But now since we have already extended our support to the new regime, it would not be prudent to backtrack. Now Indian diplomacy should be geared to see that the multi-party democracy survives in the country.

Kamna: How do you find India’s response to the whole crisis in the Indian Ocean nation? Reports claim that New Delhi has offered asylum to Nasheed.

Dr Kumar: India’s response to the whole crisis has been reasonable. The political crisis has been brewing up in that country for quite some time. Nasheed is an honest man. Unfortunately, he is not a very astute politician. He allowed the Parliament to be controlled by the opposition. Since then he has been facing political difficulties. It was his mishandling of the situation that precipitated the crisis. As far as offering political asylum to Nasheed is concerned, there should not be any problem. In any case, a large number of Maldivians stay in the Indian states of Kerala and Karnataka.

Kamna: Do you see the Maldivian logjam being broken anytime soon? If not, Maldives is heading towards which situation?

Dr Kumar: The Maldives logjam could be broken if President Waheed forms a national government quickly as promised. But if he delays this or tries to play politics, then the situation could worsen. In that case, it is possible that Maldives might see a phase of political unrest.

I recall that Dr Kumar was in Male for some time before the balloon went up.

As he rightly says India's prime interest in Maldives is to see that there is democracy or rather there is representative government.

Now that the US envoy claims that early elections are ruled out is this at cross purposes for India?

[ramana]

Bji, I think they were sleeping while the ground moved. And after the coup had no choice but to legitimize it. What surprised them was the violence after the coup.