BRF GJP Trial-2: How many seats will UPA win?

Denis · Post by **Denis** » 25 Apr 2014 19:33

Week 4: 3rd week : 30 70 0 0 0 0 0

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 25 Apr 2014 19:50

after 2009, I can't go lower than this.

0 0 0 0 20 20 40 20

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Apr 2014 01:21

I upped the vote to 3 times for this week.

Saral · Post by **Saral** » 26 Apr 2014 08:23

I am going full Monty here as this election seems to be a clear rejection of UPA, with high turnout, no evidence for RG or anyone in Congress having any positive effect; their wins are based on local stalwarts and demographics onlee; so tough to break 3 digits. Could be that I am wrong and they sneak into the 3 digits. So be it. Also I am discounting voter list shenanigans and EVM conspiracies. Ok, 60 lakh deletions happened in MH. But how many were legit? Maybe most of them? If even 30 lakh were dubious then there should be atleast 18 lakh (60%) folks who are pissed they didn't get to vote. I just don't see those numbers in any credible reports. For example we've heard of Deepak Parekh and a few other well known people excluded. But there are lots of well known people in Mumbai including Journalists. Where are the numbers? Sure people in some buildings got left out, but that's an easy one to explain I think. Unless new evidence appears, I don't think this will have an effect. Also muslim turnout was low in Mumbai according to reports.

Saral 100 0 0 0 0 0 0

p.s. If I was betting real money I'd hedge across the <=100 and 100-110 categories, 60 vs. 40. Since there is no money but only reputation involved, I can take more risk and hope for more reward.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 26 Apr 2014 21:30

well there is no UPA this time. It is for congis to survive somehow to make a fighting comeback in 2019. What they are afraid of , is that NaMo might not give them second chance for next 20 years and by that time their carefully sculpted structure of power-broking will stand totally demolished. We will see likes of Amarsinh choudhary type leaders, who would fail to revive congis , like he failed Gujarat Congis.

chaanakya 100 0 0 0 0 0

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Apr 2014 22:06

Make Gandhiji's wish to dissolve Congress come true. Vote for Modi sarkar.

Virupaksha · Post by **Virupaksha** » 26 Apr 2014 23:47

my trust in congress ability to manage seats individually is exemplary. Note the happenings of Bihar, Nitish is sacrificing himself to halt Modi, guess who just got another 10 seats?

0 0 0 10 20 30 40

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 27 Apr 2014 02:41

20 60 10 10 0 0 0

Patni · Post by **Patni** » 27 Apr 2014 22:18

week 4 UPA
Patni 65 30 5 0 0 0 0

Klaus · Post by **Klaus** » 28 Apr 2014 16:59

Week 4, UPA

klaus 0 20 0 40 40 0 0

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 28 Apr 2014 22:42

Week 4

20 40 40 0 0 0 0

Saral · Post by **Saral** » 29 Apr 2014 02:09

will modi-fy my UPA estimate

Saral 50 40 10 0 0 0 0

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 29 Apr 2014 18:06

My latest estimate for UPA

UPA
INC 117
JMM 1
RJD 13
NCP 9
IUML 2
NC 1
PDP 2
AAP 2
AUDF 3
MIM 1

Total 151

NC, PDP, AAP, AUDF and MIM are not with UPA officially, so UPA will be 142.

Mihaylo · Post by **Mihaylo** » 29 Apr 2014 18:58

Mihaylo - 0 0 5 30 40 20 5

Anand K · Post by **Anand K** » 30 Apr 2014 15:01

Now that this round is ending in an hour or two I think I can say,

Anand K - 0 0 0 0 25 25 50

cdbatra · Post by **cdbatra** » 01 May 2014 16:28

Dear Birathers my take on final AAP tally is between 10 - 12 with big wins in Haryana & Punjab.

Saral · Post by **Saral** » 01 May 2014 19:31

will further modi-fy my UPA estimate

Saral 75 25 0 0 0 0 0

member_28352 · Post by **member_28352** » 02 May 2014 20:07

ShankarCag 100 0 0 0 0 0 0

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 02 May 2014 21:25

Chaanakya 100 0 0 0 0 0

Congis will be in two digit onlee.

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 02 May 2014 22:35

Week 5

25 50 25 0 0 0 0

Saral · Post by **Saral** » 02 May 2014 23:13

Chaanakya is the last week 4 entry

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 02 May 2014 23:56

RamaY Week 5

100 0 0 0 0 0 0

Saral · Post by **Saral** » 03 May 2014 08:27

Week 4 UPA

In week 1 median=105, week 2 median=99, week3 median=109, week 4 median=105.

Not much of a trend in the medians. Variation is mostly due to different judges across time. If we rely on the judges median, then it looks like the place to bet is 100 - 110 range for UPA with max probability.

Judges can be divided as follows into 2 camps:

Optimists

Code: Select all

     Chaanakya      100      0      0      0      0      0      0          85           100
    ShankarCag      100      0      0      0      0      0      0          85           100
         Patni       65     30      5      0      0      0      0          93            80
         Saral       50     40     10      0      0      0      0          96            74
         Denis       30     70      0      0      0      0      0          99            86
 panduranghari       20     60     10     10      0      0      0         104            67
      KLPDubey       20     40     40      0      0      0      0         105            69
         RamaY       50      0      0     50      0      0      0         105            83

Pessimists

Code: Select all

          Klaus        0     20      0     40     40      0      0         126            69
        Mihaylo        0      0      5     30     40     20      5         135            52
         RahulM        0      0      0     20     20     40     20         144            54
     muraliravi        0      0      0      0      0    100      0         146           100
     Virupaksha        0      0      0     10     20     30     40         150            57
         AnandK        0      0      0      0     25     25     50         153            70

Saral · Post by **Saral** » 03 May 2014 08:32

Why am I an optimist? Because its not just a Modi-wave but also an anti-Congi wave. Satta market is betting 80 or less for CongI. So UPA wont be able to reach 110, in my opinion. I must say that opinion is very sharply divided here and unlike the NDA numbers these are harder to argue for or against. There's also an understandable reluctance in media and elsewhere to write off CongI. Call it the 67 year inertial wave. But much water has flown under the bridge. Congress doesnt have regional power-bases anymore. So if its allies are getting walloped, there ain't no place to hide. Game, set, and match.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 03 May 2014 09:25

Saral if UPA is at 105 then why is NDA still at 262? What is the forum not seeing?

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 03 May 2014 10:03

BJP estimates are 300 or thereabouts.Even if this is a trifle optimistic and the actual figure is 270+,if one adds about 110 for the Cong/UPA,then the rest must be made up of regional parties,etc.Of these at least 20-30 seats will support the NDA .Even rebel expelled Jaswant has said that while he will not rejoin the BJP ,he will support it from outside.This will give the NDA an easy 300+ seats.

If one looks at the high turnout as being mostly a Modi wave/tsunami,then it could be a landslide for the tBJP/NDA with the BJP alone getting 300 seats.The two entities which are going to really "face the music" are the Congress-decimation,annihilation,mastication,sublimation,pulverisation,extermination par excellence....and the Left,who will be "Left Out" in grand style.In fact this election shows the Left to be "bereft" of any ideology,strategy or tactics that it could take advantage of the Congress' rejection over the litany of corruption scams,maladministration and the anti-incumbency factor. Prakash Karat looks so forlorn waiting as if for someone to feed him a juicy carrot! A hunting party/APB is required to find the whereabouts of one Yechury S. "Missing in action"!

Tine for Modi doubters to "smell the chai"!

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 03 May 2014 10:17

Philip please xpost in strat forum thread for all to see.

Klaus · Post by **Klaus** » 03 May 2014 12:27

Week 5, UPA

klaus 0 45 35 20 0 0 0

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 03 May 2014 15:56

Joining in on 5th week
deejay:
1) Less than <100 10%
2) Between 101-110 50%
3) Between 111-120 30%
4) Between 121-130 5%
5) Between 131-140 5%
6) Between 141-150 0%
7) Greater than > 150 0%

Saral · Post by **Saral** » 03 May 2014 19:04

ramana wrote:Saral if UPA is at 105 then why is NDA still at 262? What is the forum not seeing?

Different judges for UPA and NDA causes this inconsistency, maybe.

If we go by March opinion, then the estimates for NDA at 262 is reasonable.. I think the situation has changed since March. Maybe UPA will manage more than 110 but 120 seems to be a hard limit, surely? And surely NDA (now) should be favored for 280+?

Denis · Post by **Denis** » 05 May 2014 11:06

Week 5:
Denis: 75 25 0 0 0 0 0

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 05 May 2014 17:47

Mafia has B teams like TRS, Jagan, SP,BSP etc which are not UPA but are Cripto UPA or UPA plus. So though UPA may be around 100 but it can get another 25 plus for from these B teams. But the problem with B teams like TRS, Jagan etc is they can be Jump Jilanis. Even NCP within UPA is not reliable. Only SP and BSP are true friends of Mafia.

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 06 May 2014 03:42

Week 5 (missed week 4)
matrimc 0 5 10 30 40 10 5

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 06 May 2014 06:33

week 5, upgrading UPA prospects after the late surge in rjd prospects in bihar.

UPA 140-150 50%
UPA 150-160 50%

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 06 May 2014 06:57

0 0 0 60 20 20 0

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 06 May 2014 18:55

60 20 10 0 0 0 0

Saral · Post by **Saral** » 07 May 2014 21:24

Saral 60 40 0 0 0 0 0

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 07 May 2014 21:51

Chaanakya 100 0 0 0 0 0 0

Patni · Post by **Patni** » 07 May 2014 21:59

Patni 65 35 0 0 0 0 0

Anand K · Post by **Anand K** » 08 May 2014 08:08

After the penultimate round;

Anand K - 0 0 0 0 25 25 50