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Re: China Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 21 Feb 2024 11:04
by hgupta
A_Gupta wrote: 21 Feb 2024 09:10 > And don’t forget that US has the largest debt in the world which is 130% of its GDP.

No, Japan and Italy exceed the US in the major economies.
No US has over $35 T in debt whereas Japan and Italy has $8.6T and $3.1T respectively.
> Has actual productivity increased or it’s just mostly inflation?

Actual productivity.
I would like to see that data pls. This is what I have:
In the manufacturing sector, productivity decreased 0.8 percent in 2023, reflecting a decrease in output of 0.5 percent and an increase in hours of 0.3 percent. Manufacturing unit labor costs increased 5.5 percent in 2023, as hourly compensation increased 4.7 percent while productivity decreased 0.8 percent.
From this website: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/prod2.pdf

Re: China Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 21 Feb 2024 11:05
by hgupta
And not to mention that US debt is expected to grow up to 200% of its GDP within a decade.

Re: China Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 21 Feb 2024 22:04
by disha
US Economic discussion should not be in China Economic Stress Watch

Also while taking US Economic discussion into appropriate thread, do ponder on the following:

1. US Economy is in stagflation. Stagnant real growth and high inflation. https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/stagflation/

2. The employment numbers are always revised. This time the expectation is that it will be revised downwards.

3. Unemployment numbers do *NOT* count people who have given up on finding employment <- this is the biggest US Shanghai statistics.

4. Productivity growth vs. productivity improvement? Automating a process leads to productivity improvement, but is a one time and does not lead to sustained productivity growth. And AI is not going to get us there any time soon.

Chinese economy is in dumps. Even US Economy. We should have a thread on US Economy Stress Watch.

Re: China Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 23 Feb 2024 07:26
by kancha
Twitter thread with the hashtag #TheOtherChina, running since Sep 2018.
Basically a chronicle of the warning signs pertaining to Chinese economy. Might be a useful resource for those interested.
Link

Re: China Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 29 Feb 2024 11:31
by SRajesh
Another Chinese property giant facing crisis:
Embattled China property giant Country Garden faces liquidation petition
Looks like this has slipped under the radar
Multiple markers showing slowing down or rather clamping down of Dragon's Breath!!
Will 2024 mark a key event

Re: China Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 29 Feb 2024 11:37
by vera_k
China's economy looks weak, but why is money pouring into its stock market

Views similar to one of my advisors who are pushing the line that China is in recovery while India is late stage.

Re: China Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 11 Mar 2024 21:56
by A_Gupta
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/c ... =shoreline
There was once a time when American CEOs looked to China as a land of opportunity. That time may be long gone.

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After years of ascending growth, some of the most powerful US tech corporations have started to slide hard and fast in the world's second-largest economy amid the new reality of doing business there.

Beijing has endorsed uber-nationalism. In turn, sentiment toward Western business has soured. That's especially so as domestic companies have stepped up as viable alternatives. And it's all created a dangerous race to the bottom to win over consumers.

It's no wonder US companies that once banked on this being the "Chinese century" are having to learn a very painful lesson about doing business in China.
When Premier Li Qiang set out China's 5% annual growth target at the start of the National People's Congress this month, it became clear how vital technology would be in driving that forward.

That means Beijing is expected to play a more active role in catalyzing the growth of its domestic tech sector — and squeezing any foreign entities that get in its way.

The Wall Street Journal reported that a directive known as Document 79 was being ramped up to push out Western companies. It asks state-owned companies in a range of sectors, such as finance and energy, to "replace foreign software in their IT systems by 2027."

Re: China Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 12 Mar 2024 06:29
by disha
vera_k wrote: 29 Feb 2024 11:37 China's economy looks weak, but why is money pouring into its stock market

Views similar to one of my advisors who are pushing the line that China is in recovery while India is late stage.
Excellent for people who manage their own investments. As the cheeni stocks get artificially boosted, exit out of mutual funds/etf's that invest primarily in Cheen and get into India specific mutual funds/ETFs.

For some of the investors, they do not have a choice. That is, 3-4 years back, there were not many India specific mutual funds or ETFs while all "international" funds invested primarily in Cheen and some in India. Now there is choice.

There is no choice if the HR is run by a cheeni or a gora/gori. All the retirement savings is invested in company picks and you do not have any choice!

I do like Rabouin's insights, but he is wrong on Cheen. Cheen is in a death spiral.

Re: China Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 13 Mar 2024 06:46
by sanman
China now under big stress thanks to big debt

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L44ASgpxWwQ


Large economy coupled with opaque system are a recipe for large-scale capital misallocation (aka. bubbles)

Re: China Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 22 Mar 2024 04:44
by sanman
Review of why China is now suffering economic slowdown

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ascPhiXcpss

Re: China Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 15 May 2024 05:11
by sanman
FDI into China Plunges by 56%

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V2QT2BjoEQ8

Re: China Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 17 May 2024 17:17
by A_Gupta
https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/17/economy/ ... index.html

China unveils ‘historic’ rescue for crisis-hit property sector as home prices slump again

Re: China Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 13 Aug 2024 19:54
by sanman

Re: China Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 15 Aug 2024 16:28
by sanman

Re: China Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 16 Aug 2024 06:24
by Vayutuvan
USD 15 billion is peanuts.

Re: China Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 21 Aug 2024 22:30
by Suraj
'Rotten-tail kids': China's rising youth unemployment breeds new working class
Rising unemployment in China is pushing millions of college graduates into a tough bargain, with some forced to accept low-paying work or even subsist on their parents' pensions, a plight that has created a new working class of "rotten-tail kids".

The jobless rate for the roughly 100 million Chinese youth aged 16-24 crept above 20% for the first time in April last year. When it hit an all-time high of 21.3% in June 2023, officials abruptly suspended the data series to reassess how numbers were compiled.

In 1999, China dramatically expanded the enrolment capacity of universities in a bid to produce a better educated workforce to drive its fast-growing economy.

But the supply of graduates had kept exceeding jobs, with authorities expressing concern in 2007 over job availability, an issue that receded but never fully faded as more youth armed with degrees entered the market.

Re: China Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 21 Aug 2024 22:58
by isubodh
Rising unemployment in China is pushing millions of college graduates into a tough bargain, with some forced to accept low-paying work or even subsist on their parents' pensions, a plight that has created a new working class of "rotten-tail kids".

In 1999, China dramatically expanded the enrolment capacity of universities in a bid to produce a better educated workforce to drive its fast-growing economy.

But the supply of graduates had kept exceeding jobs, with authorities expressing concern in 2007 over job availability, an issue that receded but never fully faded as more youth armed with degrees entered the market.
[/quote]
What are the lessons here, I see India on same trajectory

Re: China Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 22 Aug 2024 05:03
by ernest
Deleted . There are plenty of threads about India.

Re: China Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 07 Sep 2024 22:21
by Hriday
Levina from Resonant News reports. See the video in the link.
https://x.com/LevinaNeythiri/status/183 ... fyAlw&s=19
🔴Mass loot!!! This time in China.
🔺Location: Zhecheng County, Shangqiu City, Henan Province, China

Apparently many public institutions in Henan Province haven't been able to pay salaries for 8-9 months, confirms Jennifer Zheng.
Social Unrest in China, afoot❓

Re: China Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 29 Mar 2025 19:43
by drnayar



Chinese white elephant collapses in 5 seconds

Re: China Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 01 Apr 2025 04:19
by A_Gupta
This is really Economic Stress Watch of the misguided International Investors who invested in China.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Szkji-GifFU

Real estate developers gone bankrupt in the last three years = 32
Amount these developers owe international bond holders = 147 billion USD
Payments received by international bond holders = 0.917 billion USD

i.e., they are getting back 6 cents on the dollar.

------

Total real estate developer liabilities (domestic and international) = 12,000 billion USD, per China's official statistics.

Re: China Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 03 Apr 2025 06:06
by A_Gupta
"....out of every 10 yuan that every Chinese person pays in taxes to the government one yuan is takenby the Communist Party to hand it over to Americans..."

(strictly speaking, paid to consumers overseas.) This is based on the official Chinese statistics for export subsidies and for state revenues. The same figures show that the Communist Party government spends less than a tenth of that subsidizing its own people.

https://youtu.be/K1BSyk7Mx3g?si=Bhljgr3MPmSdDi15

Re: China Economic Stress Watch

Posted: 05 Apr 2025 20:04
by A_Gupta
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/fit ... 025-04-03/
Global ratings agency Fitch on Thursday downgraded China's sovereign credit rating, citing rapidly rising government debt and risks to public finances, as policymakers gear up to shield the economy from rising U.S. tariffs.

The downgrade came a day after President Donald Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on imports from U.S. trading partners, with China among the hardest hit, though Fitch said his move had not yet been incorporated into its forecasts.