Johann: I got the impression that what the Russians sent into Ossetia and Georgia and Abkhazia was the equivalent of the US National Guard - old equipment and maybe not-so-first-line troops. There was some report of Spetznak etc. but those may have been special missions. Are you saying that most of the army and air force are in this condition? I was surprised that they still fly Su-25s and use T-72(?) tanks. The use of Tu-22s indicated that they had no preparations for delivering bombs, so they had to use their long-range bombers. Also they don't appear to have been carefully pre-positioned etc., because they had to all come through one tunnel. A single jehadi-type attack like the ones in the Salang Tunnel in Afghanistan would have turned the course of the war.
Maybe they figured that in the Caucasus and Black Sea their problem is mostly against irregulars, not against modern armies? To me they appeared to have been caught napping, regardless of all these stories of highly-coordinated preparations etc. So I think what we are seeing is probably the outward manifestation of some serious anger inside the Russian leadership.
One small question:
Is Azerbaijan Sunni or Shia? It's very interesting that the Russians minister would go on Al Jazeera and claim that the attack on Tshinkvali was a rehearsal for an attack on Iran. What do you make of that?
Caucasus Crisis
Re: Caucasus Crisis
US military frets over future US-Russian ties
Reuters - 32 minutes ago
By David Morgan WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Russia's invasion of Georgia has raised concerns among senior Pentagon officials about long-term US-Russian relations ...
UN Security Council rebuffs Georgian separatists
Reuters UK, UK - 1 hour ago
By Louis Charbonneau UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) - The UN Security Council refused on Thursday to approve a request from representatives of two Georgian ...
Exposing Russia’s weakness
Taipei Times, Taiwan - 2 hours ago
Not since the German invasion of Czechoslovakia have we seen such a blatant violation of the sovereignty of a liberal democratic state (not even in Taiwan ...
Russia claims China backing in Georgia conflict
AFP - 2 hours ago
DUSHANBE (AFP) — China and four Central Asian nations signed a statement Thursday supporting Russia's role in the Caucasus but also expressing "deep ...
Georgian lawmakers urge cut in Russia ties
International Herald Tribune, France - 2 hours ago
AP TBILISI, Georgia: Georgia's parliament is urging the country's leadership to break off diplomatic relations with Russia over its invasion. ...
Asian alliance snubs Russian plea for support
The Associated Press - 3 hours ago
DUSHANBE, Tajikistan (AP) — China and several Central Asian nations rebuffed Russia's hopes of international support for its actions in Georgia, ...
Moscow faces isolation due to Georgia operations
Radio Netherlands, Netherlands - 4 hours ago
Russia is facing the increasing threat of diplomatic isolation as a result of its military operations in Georgia. This follows the Moscow government's ...
Georgians stuck in limbo begin to lash out at Saakashvili
Independent, UK - 4 hours ago
By Shaun Walker in Tkviavi, Georgia Passing along the road to Tkviavi, the lush green fields, bountiful orchards and gentle slopes of the Caucasus foothills ...
German Detente Supporter Bahr Says Cooperate With Russia
Deutsche Welle, Germany - 5 hours ago
The West should be seeking to improve cooperation with Russia rather than getting agitated about Moscow's recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, ...
China happy to see Russia give West a bloody nose
Telegraph.co.uk, United Kingdom - 5 hours ago
China has no great love for Russia, and when two Muscovite blondes battled it out with Georgia on the beach volleyball court during the Olympics, ...
Re: Caucasus Crisis
The Georgian Yahya's whine about not being able to travel abroad is pathetic. Why would Russia "CLOSE DOWN GEORGIAN AIRSPACE" just to prevent one pipsqueak from returning? Much easier to shoot the plane down, after all. And he could always return courtesy of the USN in one of those Aid boxes marked "From the people of the United States of America To the People of Georgia, FSU" disguised as baby food. Or maybe as fertilizer.
He is terrified of leaving for the same reason why all dictators are terrified of leaving. Gaddi shaky, and lamppost-preparation crews may be waiting for him to take a vacation before coming to the Palace grounds.
He is terrified of leaving for the same reason why all dictators are terrified of leaving. Gaddi shaky, and lamppost-preparation crews may be waiting for him to take a vacation before coming to the Palace grounds.
Re: Caucasus Crisis
Hi N,Johann: I got the impression that what the Russians sent into Ossetia and Georgia and Abkhazia was the equivalent of the US National Guard - old equipment and maybe not-so-first-line troops. There was some report of Spetznak etc. but those may have been special missions. Are you saying that most of the army and air force are in this condition? I was surprised that they still fly Su-25s and use T-72(?) tanks. The use of Tu-22s indicated that they had no preparations for delivering bombs, so they had to use their long-range bombers. Also they don't appear to have been carefully pre-positioned etc., because they had to all come through one tunnel. A single jehadi-type attack like the ones in the Salang Tunnel in Afghanistan would have turned the course of the war.
Maybe they figured that in the Caucasus and Black Sea their problem is mostly against irregulars, not against modern armies? To me they appeared to have been caught napping, regardless of all these stories of highly-coordinated preparations etc. So I think what we are seeing is probably the outward manifestation of some serious anger inside the Russian leadership.
The bulk of the forces used were assigned to the North Caucasus Military District. That includes Chechnya, and all the other trouble spots like Ingushetia and Dagestan. So its the equivalent of the Americans as CENTCOM. Say that Syria made a sudden and unexpected grab for Lebanon, and the Americans had to use whatever theatre reserves they, plus some forces from Iraq; thats the kind of analogy I'd make in terms of force readiness and how representative these forces are.
What isnt commonly known is that the Russians had a medium sized exercise, Kavkaz (Caucasus) 2008 in progress in July - there were some additional forces in the theatre as well, like elements from the 76th Airborne Division. Their exercises were built around two scenarios - one a counter-insurgency operation in Ingushetia/Chechnya, another in North Ossetia simulating 'support' to Russian forces in Abkhazia and S. Ossetia. This was reported in *Russian* media like Ria Novosti in July before the Georgian advance.
Both the Americans and the Russians expected a tense faceoff of the kind you saw in Berlin in 1961, or the kind of buildups and stand-downs you see in the Korean peninsula from time to time.
So I'd say what we had was the kind of mutual mobilisation and tension that broke unexpectedly in to ACTUAL conflict. The responsibility for that is almost entirely Saakashvili's personality
The Russians used Tu-22s in Chechnya as well - they like the ability to drop larger loads for combat missions, but in particular on recce missions they depend on the sensor packages of the Tu-22s.
Re: Caucasus Crisis
Putin claims Georgian crisis is US ploy
Putin reads BR!"The Russian prime minister, Vladimir Putin, claimed today the Caucasus crisis was started by the Americans as an election campaign ploy.
As Russia found itself increasingly isolated internationally because of its invasion of Georgia and its decision to recognise two breakaway regions of Georgia as independent states, Putin suggested the Georgia war had been cooked up in Washington to create a neo-cold war climate that would strengthen John McCain's bid for the White House and wreck the prospects of Barack Obama."
Re: Caucasus Crisis
So its
"ICE STATION TIBLISI"
"ICE STATION TIBLISI"
Re: Caucasus Crisis
Ah yes... the mythical "International Community". I wonder when Africa, South America and Asia will be allowed to join?As Russia found itself increasingly isolated internationally
Re: Caucasus Crisis
International community as per the "Western view" is
-- USA
-- Great Britain (I don't know what is great about it)
-- Canada
-- France
-- Germany
-- Italy
-- Scandinavian Countries
But I think this is for self consumption. Times are changing, world is changing. With better communication, its very difficult to fool people. I am sure, people will understand the game and respond accordingly.
History will judge this as beginning of the end of "American Empire". Any way Americans are not good empire builders.
-- USA
-- Great Britain (I don't know what is great about it)
-- Canada
-- France
-- Germany
-- Italy
-- Scandinavian Countries
But I think this is for self consumption. Times are changing, world is changing. With better communication, its very difficult to fool people. I am sure, people will understand the game and respond accordingly.
History will judge this as beginning of the end of "American Empire". Any way Americans are not good empire builders.
Re: Caucasus Crisis
Russia's failure to get an unequivocal endorsement at SCO is significant. What SCO did not say (did not condemn Georgia) is as important of what it said (about territorial integrity and need for dialogue). Putin has to be satisfied with vague references to 'Russia's peacekeeping' efforts. Like I posted earlier, this is just about friendliest bunch of nations it could assemble at one place. US could find 46 chamchas/coalition of the billing to toe its line on Kosovo not all of them insignificant.
That also sets the stage for GOI to issue a meaningless motherhood statement and forget the whole issue.
Again, forgetting the morals of the issue, Russia has miles to go before it can catch up with Uncle and post a credible challenge. Its most vocal allies now are Syria and Iran, the kind of friends even Russians would be ashamed of in private. The kind of nationalism that Zhirinovsky roused too radically in the past and PM combo is doing more sophisticatedly in the present is essentially anti-Islamic and anti-colored.
China must be laughing itself to a stomach ache and despots and terrorists are also keeping themselves warm in this senseless cold war. Sooner the Putin and GWB realise the better.
That also sets the stage for GOI to issue a meaningless motherhood statement and forget the whole issue.
Again, forgetting the morals of the issue, Russia has miles to go before it can catch up with Uncle and post a credible challenge. Its most vocal allies now are Syria and Iran, the kind of friends even Russians would be ashamed of in private. The kind of nationalism that Zhirinovsky roused too radically in the past and PM combo is doing more sophisticatedly in the present is essentially anti-Islamic and anti-colored.
China must be laughing itself to a stomach ache and despots and terrorists are also keeping themselves warm in this senseless cold war. Sooner the Putin and GWB realise the better.
Re: Caucasus Crisis
as opposed to "Lesser Britain" (the French province of Brittany)Great Britain (I don't know what is great about it)
Geoffrey of Monmouth in his pseudohistorical Historia Regum Britanniae (circa 1136) refers to the island of Great Britain as Britannia major ("Greater Britain"), to distinguish it from Britannia minor ("Lesser Britain"), the continental region which approximates to modern Brittany.
Re: Caucasus Crisis
How to navigate ......
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/commen ... 628259.ece
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/commen ... 628259.ece
Which brings us to the real lesson of the Georgian debacle: Tbilisi's freedom to challenge Russia had already been traded away by its Western allies - whether they realised it or not. When Kosovo declared independence in February, a senior European official remarked that the West would pay a price for its decision to offer recognition in the face of fierce Russian opposition.
Re: Caucasus Crisis
Azerbaijan is Shia...I believe some of the shia rulers of deccan came from here.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articl ... ar_ii.html
Who Started Cold War II?
By Patrick Buchanan
The American people should be eternally grateful to Old Europe for having spiked the Bush-McCain plan to bring Georgia into NATO.
Had Georgia been in NATO when Mikheil Saakashvili invaded South Ossetia, we would be eyeball to eyeball with Russia, facing war in the Caucasus, where Moscow's superiority is as great as U.S. superiority in the Caribbean during the Cuban missile crisis.
If the Russia-Georgia war proves nothing else, it is the insanity of giving erratic hotheads in volatile nations the power to drag the United States into war.
From Harry Truman to Ronald Reagan, as Defense Secretary Robert Gates said, U.S. presidents have sought to avoid shooting wars with Russia, even when the Bear was at its most beastly.
Truman refused to use force to break Stalin's Berlin blockade. Ike refused to intervene when the Butcher of Budapest drowned the Hungarian Revolution in blood. LBJ sat impotent as Leonid Brezhnev's tanks crushed the Prague Spring. Jimmy Carter's response to Brezhnev's invasion of Afghanistan was to boycott the Moscow Olympics. When Brezhnev ordered his Warsaw satraps to crush Solidarity and shot down a South Korean airliner killing scores of U.S. citizens, including a congressman, Reagan did -- nothing.
These presidents were not cowards. They simply would not go to war when no vital U.S. interest was at risk to justify a war. Yet, had George W. Bush prevailed and were Georgia in NATO, U.S. Marines could be fighting Russian troops over whose flag should fly over a province of 70,000 South Ossetians who prefer Russians to Georgians.
The arrogant folly of the architects of U.S. post-Cold War policy is today on display. By bringing three ex-Soviet republics into NATO, we have moved the U.S. red line for war from the Elbe almost to within artillery range of the old Leningrad.
Should America admit Ukraine into NATO, Yalta, vacation resort of the czars, will be a NATO port and Sevastopol, traditional home of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, will become a naval base for the U.S. Sixth Fleet. This is altogether a bridge too far.
And can we not understand how a Russian patriot like Vladimir Putin would be incensed by this U.S. encirclement after Russia shed its empire and sought our friendship? How would Andy Jackson have reacted to such crowding by the British Empire?
As of 1991, the oil of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan belonged to Moscow. Can we not understand why Putin would smolder as avaricious Yankees built pipelines to siphon the oil and gas of the Caspian Basin through breakaway Georgia to the West?
For a dozen years, Putin & Co. watched as U.S. agents helped to dump over regimes in Ukraine and Georgia that were friendly to Moscow.
If Cold War II is coming, who started it, if not us?
The swift and decisive action of Putin's army in running the Georgian forces out of South Ossetia in 24 hours after Saakashvili began his barrage and invasion suggests Putin knew exactly what Saakashvili was up to and dropped the hammer on him.
What did we know? Did we know Georgia was about to walk into Putin's trap? Did we not see the Russians lying in wait north of the border? Did we give Saakashvili a green light?
Joe Biden ought to be conducting public hearings on who caused this U.S. humiliation.
The war in Georgia has exposed the dangerous overextension of U.S. power. There is no way America can fight a war with Russia in the Caucasus with our army tied down in Afghanistan and Iraq. Nor should we. Hence, it is demented to be offering, as John McCain and Barack Obama are, NATO membership to Tbilisi.
The United States must decide whether it wants a partner in a flawed Russia or a second Cold War. For if we want another Cold War, we are, by cutting Russia out of the oil of the Caspian and pushing NATO into her face, going about it exactly the right way.
Vladimir Putin is no Stalin. He is a nationalist determined, as ruler of a proud and powerful country, to assert his nation's primacy in its own sphere, just as U.S. presidents from James Monroe to Bush have done on our side of the Atlantic.
A resurgent Russia is no threat to any vital interests of the United States. It is a threat to an American Empire that presumes some God-given right to plant U.S. military power in the backyard or on the front porch of Mother Russia.
Who rules Abkhazia and South Ossetia is none of our business. And after this madcap adventure of Saakashvili, why not let the people of these provinces decide their own future in plebiscites conducted by the United Nations or the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe?
As for Saakashvili, he's probably toast in Tbilisi after this stunt. Let the neocons find him an endowed chair at the American Enterprise Institute.
Re: Caucasus Crisis
Wise words from Pat Buchanan.As a member also speculated,Putin must be reading BR,for did we not say that this crisis could've been organised to help McCain? If a veteran Singapore diplomat/ambassador like Kishore Madhubani writes that the rest of the world is amused by the US/west's version of events in Georgia,coming from such a staunch Asian ally ,the US/NATO is only deceiving itself with its cocktail of falsehoods about Georgia.Saakashvili will indeed be "toast" sooner than later,if not rescued like another great US ally,Gen.Musharrat ,perhaps also to be rewarded on the lecture circuit,where he could lecture on the virtues of the "Quick retreat","Taking cover while under attack","Running away to talk shows another day","How to lose friends and infuriate your people","God save me from my friends,I can defend myself against my enemies".As one Georgian well put it,.....
......The target of his ire was less the Russians than his own President, whom he blamed for having started a war with an unstoppable giant. “No one here likes him. You've got to be stupid to start a war with the Russians.”
......The target of his ire was less the Russians than his own President, whom he blamed for having started a war with an unstoppable giant. “No one here likes him. You've got to be stupid to start a war with the Russians.”
Re: Caucasus Crisis
Sorry, I missed this part the first time. As Paul said they are Shia. Azerbaijan used to be Persian, until the Russians grabbed it from them, along with much of what is Georgia today.narayanan wrote:One small question:
Is Azerbaijan Sunni or Shia? It's very interesting that the Russians minister would go on Al Jazeera and claim that the attack on Tshinkvali was a rehearsal for an attack on Iran. What do you make of that?
Azerbaijan was heavily secularised and liberal even in the Tsarist era, before Soviet rule. So post-Soviet collapse, they aligned themselves with secular Turkey (Azeria is a Persianised Turkish dialect) rather than the Islamic Republic of Iran. And since Russia backed Armenia (Orthodox connection) in the Ngorno-Karabakh conflict, Azerbaijan looked West.
Moscow and Tehran traditionally had a very tense relationship - Tsarist and Qajar/Soviet and Pahlavi/Soviet and Khomeini. Mostly because the Russian Empire wanted to annex Iran, and the Soviets pushed hard for a communist revolution in Iran.
The relationship changed when Khomeini died in 1988. At that point Russia was too weak to threaten Iran for the first time since Catherine the Great.
From that point onwards there's been cooperation on two fronts - for billions in cash the Russians sold Iran large quantities of weapons, weapons technology and the Bushehr reactor. Secondly, Russia and Iran cooperated on keeping the US and the EU out of the Caspian. More recently there's also been consideration of forming a gas cartel on the lines of OPEC.
Since 2002, when the Gulf Arabs began to seriously worry about the prospect of Iran turning nuclear, the Gulfies began a very expensive effort to outbid Iran for Russian support - theyve spent billions on Russian goods and services, and invested in the Russian economy, and have promised tens of billions more.
Between Russia's own fears of an assertive nuclear Iran, Gulf money, and US and EU encouragement Russia began to move away from Iran on the enrichment issue.
Georgia and Azerbaijan as you can see are very much part of the corridor in to the Caspian basin from the West, one that neither Russia nor Iran control.
This Russian statement simultaneously offers Iran a quid-pro-quo (support us in Georgia, it might save your bacon...err bakri), while warning the West that making an issue out of Georgia would push Russia back in to working with Iran.
Re: Caucasus Crisis
Hmm... May be his advisers?Y. Kanan wrote: Putin reads BR!
Re: Caucasus Crisis
Russia remains a Black Sea power
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/JH30Ag02.html
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/JH30Ag02.html
If the struggle in the Caucasus was ever over oil and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's (NATO's) agenda towards Central Asia, the United States suffered a colossal setback this week. Kazakhstan, the Caspian energy powerhouse and a key Central Asian player, has decided to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with Russia over the conflict with Georgia, and Russia's de facto control over two major Black Sea ports has been consolidated.
At a meeting in the Tajik capital Dushanbe on Thursday on the sidelines of the summit meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), Kazakh President Nurusultan Nazarbayev told Russian President Dmitry Medvedev that Moscow could count on Astana's support in the present crisis.
Re: Caucasus Crisis
Black Sea Navy, full stuff (Russian)
1) Combatants: http://flot.sevastopol.info/ship/today/today.htm
2) Including non-combatants: http://flot.sevastopol.info/ship/today/today_all.htm
1) Combatants: http://flot.sevastopol.info/ship/today/today.htm
2) Including non-combatants: http://flot.sevastopol.info/ship/today/today_all.htm
Re: Caucasus Crisis
Mededev is as tough as Putin. Both were briefed by Russian intel on plans for a permanent Black sea naval base by the US. Hence a bare nuckel contest ensued. Crimea, Moldova, Ajaria could be the next theatres for war.f
Re: Caucasus Crisis
AWST's initial version of events in Georgia.Makes interesting reading and should be compared with Igorr's information.The issue also has another report with its view on why the Georgian air defences worked while the Syrian's didn't.The fact that the Georgian defences were "simpler",more independent defences and less networked was an advantage to some analysts as holes could not be punched through by electronic attack.
http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/ ... annel=awst#
Georgian Military Folds Under Russian Attack
Aug 15, 2008
By David A. Fulghum, Douglas Barrie, Robert Wall and Andy Nativi
Miscalculations have defined the Georgian-Russian conflict. Georgia thought it could get away with occupying South Ossetia; Russia anticipated a militarily and politically painless counter-attack.
All of these missteps are now connected to the huge, international concern about oil and the prizes it brings with it.
Early reports indicate that pipelines running through Tbilisi from the Caspian Sea oil fields were targeted unsuccessfully by the Russian air force, which employed front-line Tu-22M3 bombers in the conflict. The stout Georgian air defenses, one of the few effective elements of the country's military, have shot down some Russian Su-25s with shoulder-fired, surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), say European-based U.S. officials. The heavier SA-11 Buk-1M also appears to have contributed to the Frogfoot strike-fighter losses and was certainly the cause of the Backfire bomber's loss, say U.S.-based analysts.
In recent years, Russia has used the cutoff of oil exports to punish Latvia and Estonia. Intercepting or damaging the Georgian pipelines would be a heavy blow. But simply the insecurity to oil supplies that fighting in the region has triggered could do even greater harm, both to Georgia and the West, if investors chose to buy oil through more secure venues. Russia also fired at least 15 SS-21 Tochka/Scarab short-range ballistic missiles at Georgian military targets during Aug. 8-11, according to Washington-based U.S. officials. They have a range of 70-120 km. (43-75 mi.), enough to threaten the Black Sea oil terminal at Supsa, Georgia.
At least one of the pipelines was also near the line of farthest advance by the Russian army between Gori and Tbilisi. Georgian officials thought the three major pipelines that go through Georgia would buy them political and economic stability and the support of the West, whose economies are being battered by high oil prices. However, these pipelines offer direct economic competition to Russian ones, so this could be a factor in Russia's overwhelming military foray.
Russia relied on long-range tube and rocket artillery to reach targets well inside Georgia without having to commit large numbers of troops outside of South Ossetia. It also deployed the equivalent of a motor rifle division, says Felix K. Chang, a former Defense Dept. intelligence officer who is now a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. The force included units from the 58th Army, based nearby. These were reinforced by elements of the 76th Air Assault Div. from the Leningrad Military District and the 96th Airborne Div. and 45th Intelligence Regiment based in Moscow, says Chang. They are elite formations from Russia's strategic reserve that were in more than 100 airlift sorties.
The World Bank-financed pipelines connect the Azer-Chirag-Gunehli oil fields in the Caspian Sea through Azerbaijan's Sangachal Terminal with oil terminals in Supsa and Ceyhan (Turkey) on the Mediterranean. The Russian offensive from the north through South Ossetia has cut the main east-west road at Gori in central Georgia. A second thrust by ground forces came from the breakaway region of Abkhazia in the west and cut the road again in western Georgia.
U.S. analysts say Russian soldiers were operating in Georgian territory late last week, but without any intention of occupying the country. Russian President Dmitri Medvedev said Georgia had been taught a lesson and Russian troops would return to lines along the border between Georgia and the breakaway region of South Ossetia.
U.S. defense officials point the finger of blame at the Georgians for the seemingly suicidal decision to push into South Ossetia, noting their almost complete disregard for Russian air superiority and ability to assemble and launch an overwhelming ground force. One possibility, they say, is that the Georgians hoped to take advantage of Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's distraction with the Olympics to present him with the fait accompli of an occupation of South Ossetia's capital on his return.
But the effort foundered as "Georgian command and control broke down" almost immediately after the initial foray, says a U.S. defense official. "We don't know if it was because of Georgian military incompetence or the result of an effective electronic and cyber-attack by the Russians."
Georgia was hobbled by the fact that 2,000 of its 12,000 combat troops were in Iraq and it had the dual tasks of blocking Russian forces in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. European analysts say Georgian regular troops initially showed the results of years of training provided mainly by the U.S. NATO also provided a military assistance program intended to lead both Georgia and Ukraine toward NATO membership.
The Georgian regulars performed well against South Ossetian irregulars, Russian reserves and peacekeepers, say European analysts, but were later pushed out of both Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The additional Russian forces included some of the elite mobile strategic forces, and its tank units could have easily reached Tbilisi. Georgian reinforcements were being delivered to the front by columns of civilian pickup trucks. Forces airlifted by U.S. C-17s from Iraq arrived with only their personal side arms.
Early last week, U.S. analysts estimated that the 10,000 Russian troops in South Ossetia were supported by 150 T-62 (probably from reserve units) and T-72 tanks and 100 pieces of artillery. There also were reports of T-80 and T-90 tanks in action as Russian troops and equipment continued to cross the border into South Ossetia.
A naval squadron of the Russian Black Sea Fleet at Sebastopol sallied to block any armament deliveries to Georgia, but without imposing a formal blockade or stopping oil shipments. The tiny Georgian navy tried to challenge the Russian vessels. Russian officials say that one or two Georgian attack boats were sunk.
A mix of Su-25, Su-27 and Su-24 strike aircraft and Tu-22M3 bombers established "air superiority, but not air supremacy over Georgia," says a U.S. defense analyst, referring to the effectiveness of Georgian air defenses.
Even in retreat and although suffering attacks on radar sites, Georgian air defenses appeared to be taking a steady toll of Russian aircraft. Russia admitted to losing four aircraft while the Georgians claim 14 shot down in the conflict. Last week they had admitted to the destruction of three Su-25 Frogfoot strike aircraft and the Backfire, said U.S. analysts.
Photos from the combat area showed wreckage of the Tu-22 and a Frogfoot as well as a picture of the Backfire pilot in a Georgian hospital. The pilot was 50-year-old Col. Igor Zinov, a Tu-22M3 instructor stationed at the Flight Test Center at Akhtubinsk.
The crew of three was assigned to the 929th GLITs (State Flight Test Center), and the aircraft's call sign was Bort No. 36, says a U.S. analyst. Zinov and another crewmember suffered spinal-compression injuries from the ejection and parachute landing. The copilot was killed. The Russian air force chose to use aircrew from places such as Akhtuýýbinsk due to their better flight test and weapons-employment experience compared with those in "line units," he said.
"The Russians are using their A-Team, as expected," the analyst says.
The Russians say they shot down a Georgian Frogfoot outside Eredvi in South Ossetia on Aug. 11. In a striking piece of irony, the Russians have twice bombed the Su-25 Frogfoot manufacturing plant on the outskirts of Tbilisi.
A preliminary cease-fire agreement included the Russians right to keep forces, including strong contingents of combat troops, in the two separatist Georgian provinces.
PS:Newsweek reports that the Georgian were subjected to masisve Russian cyberwarfare tactics that could probably be one reason why the Georgian C&C broke down.
PPS:Here's a terrific human interest story of an N.Ossetian minister Vitali Kaloyev,earlier jailed for a revenge killing of a Swiss flight controller whose error resulted in an air crash that killed Kaloyev's family.Released from jail after years in prison,Kaloyev rushed to help fight with and defend his S.Ossetian comrades and country from Georgian invaders.
Excerpt:
On the first anniversary of the accident he returned to the crash scene, poured Ossetian cognac in the field where he had found his family, confronted the head of the air traffic control company, and demanded to speak to the man who had been on duty. The company refused. No one noticed that Kaloyev was at war.
When he later returned home to Vladikavkas, having been released from jail for good behaviour, he was hailed as a hero. Radio listeners voted him Ossetian of the Year and presented him with a bronze statue of a warrior. Hundreds greeted him at Moscow airport.
In North Ossetia he joined the Cabinet and his fame spread to South Ossetia. When he came to join his South Ossetian cousins last week the whole proxy government came out to hug him.
He is a warrior whose war is still not yet over. Back from the front in Georgia, Kaloyev repeats: “Whoever hits me, gets hit back.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/w ... 629152.ece
http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/ ... annel=awst#
Georgian Military Folds Under Russian Attack
Aug 15, 2008
By David A. Fulghum, Douglas Barrie, Robert Wall and Andy Nativi
Miscalculations have defined the Georgian-Russian conflict. Georgia thought it could get away with occupying South Ossetia; Russia anticipated a militarily and politically painless counter-attack.
All of these missteps are now connected to the huge, international concern about oil and the prizes it brings with it.
Early reports indicate that pipelines running through Tbilisi from the Caspian Sea oil fields were targeted unsuccessfully by the Russian air force, which employed front-line Tu-22M3 bombers in the conflict. The stout Georgian air defenses, one of the few effective elements of the country's military, have shot down some Russian Su-25s with shoulder-fired, surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), say European-based U.S. officials. The heavier SA-11 Buk-1M also appears to have contributed to the Frogfoot strike-fighter losses and was certainly the cause of the Backfire bomber's loss, say U.S.-based analysts.
In recent years, Russia has used the cutoff of oil exports to punish Latvia and Estonia. Intercepting or damaging the Georgian pipelines would be a heavy blow. But simply the insecurity to oil supplies that fighting in the region has triggered could do even greater harm, both to Georgia and the West, if investors chose to buy oil through more secure venues. Russia also fired at least 15 SS-21 Tochka/Scarab short-range ballistic missiles at Georgian military targets during Aug. 8-11, according to Washington-based U.S. officials. They have a range of 70-120 km. (43-75 mi.), enough to threaten the Black Sea oil terminal at Supsa, Georgia.
At least one of the pipelines was also near the line of farthest advance by the Russian army between Gori and Tbilisi. Georgian officials thought the three major pipelines that go through Georgia would buy them political and economic stability and the support of the West, whose economies are being battered by high oil prices. However, these pipelines offer direct economic competition to Russian ones, so this could be a factor in Russia's overwhelming military foray.
Russia relied on long-range tube and rocket artillery to reach targets well inside Georgia without having to commit large numbers of troops outside of South Ossetia. It also deployed the equivalent of a motor rifle division, says Felix K. Chang, a former Defense Dept. intelligence officer who is now a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. The force included units from the 58th Army, based nearby. These were reinforced by elements of the 76th Air Assault Div. from the Leningrad Military District and the 96th Airborne Div. and 45th Intelligence Regiment based in Moscow, says Chang. They are elite formations from Russia's strategic reserve that were in more than 100 airlift sorties.
The World Bank-financed pipelines connect the Azer-Chirag-Gunehli oil fields in the Caspian Sea through Azerbaijan's Sangachal Terminal with oil terminals in Supsa and Ceyhan (Turkey) on the Mediterranean. The Russian offensive from the north through South Ossetia has cut the main east-west road at Gori in central Georgia. A second thrust by ground forces came from the breakaway region of Abkhazia in the west and cut the road again in western Georgia.
U.S. analysts say Russian soldiers were operating in Georgian territory late last week, but without any intention of occupying the country. Russian President Dmitri Medvedev said Georgia had been taught a lesson and Russian troops would return to lines along the border between Georgia and the breakaway region of South Ossetia.
U.S. defense officials point the finger of blame at the Georgians for the seemingly suicidal decision to push into South Ossetia, noting their almost complete disregard for Russian air superiority and ability to assemble and launch an overwhelming ground force. One possibility, they say, is that the Georgians hoped to take advantage of Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's distraction with the Olympics to present him with the fait accompli of an occupation of South Ossetia's capital on his return.
But the effort foundered as "Georgian command and control broke down" almost immediately after the initial foray, says a U.S. defense official. "We don't know if it was because of Georgian military incompetence or the result of an effective electronic and cyber-attack by the Russians."
Georgia was hobbled by the fact that 2,000 of its 12,000 combat troops were in Iraq and it had the dual tasks of blocking Russian forces in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. European analysts say Georgian regular troops initially showed the results of years of training provided mainly by the U.S. NATO also provided a military assistance program intended to lead both Georgia and Ukraine toward NATO membership.
The Georgian regulars performed well against South Ossetian irregulars, Russian reserves and peacekeepers, say European analysts, but were later pushed out of both Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The additional Russian forces included some of the elite mobile strategic forces, and its tank units could have easily reached Tbilisi. Georgian reinforcements were being delivered to the front by columns of civilian pickup trucks. Forces airlifted by U.S. C-17s from Iraq arrived with only their personal side arms.
Early last week, U.S. analysts estimated that the 10,000 Russian troops in South Ossetia were supported by 150 T-62 (probably from reserve units) and T-72 tanks and 100 pieces of artillery. There also were reports of T-80 and T-90 tanks in action as Russian troops and equipment continued to cross the border into South Ossetia.
A naval squadron of the Russian Black Sea Fleet at Sebastopol sallied to block any armament deliveries to Georgia, but without imposing a formal blockade or stopping oil shipments. The tiny Georgian navy tried to challenge the Russian vessels. Russian officials say that one or two Georgian attack boats were sunk.
A mix of Su-25, Su-27 and Su-24 strike aircraft and Tu-22M3 bombers established "air superiority, but not air supremacy over Georgia," says a U.S. defense analyst, referring to the effectiveness of Georgian air defenses.
Even in retreat and although suffering attacks on radar sites, Georgian air defenses appeared to be taking a steady toll of Russian aircraft. Russia admitted to losing four aircraft while the Georgians claim 14 shot down in the conflict. Last week they had admitted to the destruction of three Su-25 Frogfoot strike aircraft and the Backfire, said U.S. analysts.
Photos from the combat area showed wreckage of the Tu-22 and a Frogfoot as well as a picture of the Backfire pilot in a Georgian hospital. The pilot was 50-year-old Col. Igor Zinov, a Tu-22M3 instructor stationed at the Flight Test Center at Akhtubinsk.
The crew of three was assigned to the 929th GLITs (State Flight Test Center), and the aircraft's call sign was Bort No. 36, says a U.S. analyst. Zinov and another crewmember suffered spinal-compression injuries from the ejection and parachute landing. The copilot was killed. The Russian air force chose to use aircrew from places such as Akhtuýýbinsk due to their better flight test and weapons-employment experience compared with those in "line units," he said.
"The Russians are using their A-Team, as expected," the analyst says.
The Russians say they shot down a Georgian Frogfoot outside Eredvi in South Ossetia on Aug. 11. In a striking piece of irony, the Russians have twice bombed the Su-25 Frogfoot manufacturing plant on the outskirts of Tbilisi.
A preliminary cease-fire agreement included the Russians right to keep forces, including strong contingents of combat troops, in the two separatist Georgian provinces.
PS:Newsweek reports that the Georgian were subjected to masisve Russian cyberwarfare tactics that could probably be one reason why the Georgian C&C broke down.
PPS:Here's a terrific human interest story of an N.Ossetian minister Vitali Kaloyev,earlier jailed for a revenge killing of a Swiss flight controller whose error resulted in an air crash that killed Kaloyev's family.Released from jail after years in prison,Kaloyev rushed to help fight with and defend his S.Ossetian comrades and country from Georgian invaders.
Excerpt:
On the first anniversary of the accident he returned to the crash scene, poured Ossetian cognac in the field where he had found his family, confronted the head of the air traffic control company, and demanded to speak to the man who had been on duty. The company refused. No one noticed that Kaloyev was at war.
When he later returned home to Vladikavkas, having been released from jail for good behaviour, he was hailed as a hero. Radio listeners voted him Ossetian of the Year and presented him with a bronze statue of a warrior. Hundreds greeted him at Moscow airport.
In North Ossetia he joined the Cabinet and his fame spread to South Ossetia. When he came to join his South Ossetian cousins last week the whole proxy government came out to hug him.
He is a warrior whose war is still not yet over. Back from the front in Georgia, Kaloyev repeats: “Whoever hits me, gets hit back.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/w ... 629152.ece
Re: Caucasus Crisis
Wise words from Pat Buchanan.
I am amazed to find myself agreeing with that statement. This is the same Pat Buchanan who was a Presidential candidate? I thought he made Hitler look like an utter left-wing liberal commie pinko? I would have expected a diatribe on how the Lawd commands the US of A to go kill the heethain slant-eyed Communists?
Now he's singing the praises of Putin as a Patriotic Nationalist Leader of a Proud Nation.
What gives? Is Buchanan REALLY just a straight American conservative in the best traditions of that word, including honesty? He wonders what the first US Presidents would have done, given British aggression around the USA.
No wonder he's considered a dinosaur! Such thinking (or ANYTHING that looks like thinking has gone into it) surely cannot be tolerated in todays DupleeCity and Foggy Bottom.
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BSR Murthy
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Re: Caucasus Crisis
Pat Buchanan has long espoused a position against American imperialism and opposed American involvement in almost all the wars. He is for non-interventionalism - in this regard he is somewhat like Ron Paul.
Last edited by BSR Murthy on 29 Aug 2008 18:12, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Caucasus Crisis
Pat's words about Russia are wise if the boundaries on Putin's ambition stop around the Black Sea. It will not.
Re: Caucasus Crisis
Suppiah: I don't see any evidence that Putin's ambitions (at least pre-Aug. 11) extend anywhere outside Russia, and its legitimate security needs.
The US has the Monroe Doctrine, which basically presumes the "authority" to wage war on anyone who even tries to inject any sort of advanced weapons into the entire western hemisphere. If this is the required legitimate condition for Americans to feel secure, what's wrong with the Russians acting to stop the proliferation of WMD on their immediate borders, in the hands of people like Tbilisi Yahya, who OBVIOUSLY want to conduct genocide against Russians?
I am sure there are a lot of people who still believe that Russia is the Evil Empire, but any evidence to that effect is sorely lacking. Where have the Russians been indulging in adventurism? Their armed forces haven't been re-equipped since the 1980s, they have dismantled a large part of their missile forces, their Navy is hardly seen anywhere outside their coast, and their Air Force basically exists as a demonstrator for exporters.
So, why on what basis do you make this claim?
The US has the Monroe Doctrine, which basically presumes the "authority" to wage war on anyone who even tries to inject any sort of advanced weapons into the entire western hemisphere. If this is the required legitimate condition for Americans to feel secure, what's wrong with the Russians acting to stop the proliferation of WMD on their immediate borders, in the hands of people like Tbilisi Yahya, who OBVIOUSLY want to conduct genocide against Russians?
I am sure there are a lot of people who still believe that Russia is the Evil Empire, but any evidence to that effect is sorely lacking. Where have the Russians been indulging in adventurism? Their armed forces haven't been re-equipped since the 1980s, they have dismantled a large part of their missile forces, their Navy is hardly seen anywhere outside their coast, and their Air Force basically exists as a demonstrator for exporters.
So, why on what basis do you make this claim?
Re: Caucasus Crisis
The basis is the extent of hurt that Russia seems to be feeling and the kind of nationalistic leaders it seems to be throwing up. And the kind of rough Dawoodish language that you see coming from Russian top echelon. Putin from all available evidence believes in the 'Akhand Russia plus' concept, or else he would have long stuck a deal with the Americans to leave him alone in his backyard in exchange for leaving the Americans alone in other places. But Russia has been challenging US positions practically on all fronts, sometimes taking positions simply to give nuisance.
So the Akhand Russia plus is not just the old Soviet Union that keeps the smaller ex-Soviet states under the boot and in Russian orbit - it also means restoring Russia's position as an equal-equal capable of taking on the Americans wherever necessary. I am not questioning the morals of this as it is immoral to believe that US has the right to be global No.1 but Russia (or for that matter china) does not.
America, as the global Dawood is convinced that Russia is not going to sign up as a Vice President in their company and is serious about floating its own rival gang. Remember, the so -called insult of Russia is not a folly you can lay at GWB's door. It is a well thought out plan that has survived two presidents, one neo-con, one liberal and numerous sec. of states, sec. of def. etc. ranging from liberals to neo-cons. Remember when bombing of Serbia happened. This means the message from the Russians is clear and well received. Americans are not fools to simply take on Russia for no good reason if it is a potential ally. When communism collapsed they were almost talking about Marshall plan kind of language. That changed very quickly.
Now to answer another question - about my point of view and where it comes from - My feeling is eventually (and forever) China will be India's rival (as if it is not already). This is because no Dawood wants another Dawood in his own neighbourhood. Far away Dawoods are ok. So china forever, for geographic reasons, will be India's rival unless we all follow Karat's advice and sign up as their servants. That brings us the question of who will be similarly placed - so will naturally have something in common with us. It is not going to be Russia, seeing how she is more than willing to cut deals with China, give her all arms and not have any issues with what each other does with Georgia's and Tibets (and India's).
So the Akhand Russia plus is not just the old Soviet Union that keeps the smaller ex-Soviet states under the boot and in Russian orbit - it also means restoring Russia's position as an equal-equal capable of taking on the Americans wherever necessary. I am not questioning the morals of this as it is immoral to believe that US has the right to be global No.1 but Russia (or for that matter china) does not.
America, as the global Dawood is convinced that Russia is not going to sign up as a Vice President in their company and is serious about floating its own rival gang. Remember, the so -called insult of Russia is not a folly you can lay at GWB's door. It is a well thought out plan that has survived two presidents, one neo-con, one liberal and numerous sec. of states, sec. of def. etc. ranging from liberals to neo-cons. Remember when bombing of Serbia happened. This means the message from the Russians is clear and well received. Americans are not fools to simply take on Russia for no good reason if it is a potential ally. When communism collapsed they were almost talking about Marshall plan kind of language. That changed very quickly.
Now to answer another question - about my point of view and where it comes from - My feeling is eventually (and forever) China will be India's rival (as if it is not already). This is because no Dawood wants another Dawood in his own neighbourhood. Far away Dawoods are ok. So china forever, for geographic reasons, will be India's rival unless we all follow Karat's advice and sign up as their servants. That brings us the question of who will be similarly placed - so will naturally have something in common with us. It is not going to be Russia, seeing how she is more than willing to cut deals with China, give her all arms and not have any issues with what each other does with Georgia's and Tibets (and India's).
Re: Caucasus Crisis
China cannot back Russia in Georgia crisis: analysts
AFP - 28 minutes ago
BEIJING (AFP) — China will not endorse Russia in its battle with the West over the Georgia crisis but cannot say so publicly for fear of upsetting Moscow, ...
Russia defends breakaway regions
United Press International - 1 hour ago
UNITED NATIONS, Aug. 29 (UPI) -- Russia says the United Nations cannot understand the conflicts in two breakaway regions of Georgia if it continues to ...
Russia accuses G7 of 'bias'
Aljazeera.net, Qatar - 2 hours ago
Russia has accused the Group of Seven nations of "bias" in a new attempt to counter condemnation of Russia's actions in Georgia that has included talk of ...
Georgia was the "last straw" for Russia
Reuters - 1 hour ago
By Oleg Shchedrov - Analysis MOSCOW (Reuters) - A keen sense the West cheated Moscow out of promised warmer ties after the Cold War explains why Russia, ...
Moldova rejects recognition of Georgian regions
Reuters AlertNet, UK - 33 minutes ago
CHISINAU, Aug 29 (Reuters) - Moldova refuses to recognise the independence of Georgia's South Ossetia and Abkhazia regions, the government of the small ...
Russia: G7 Condemnation over Georgia Shows 'Bias'
Voice of America - 5 hours ago
By VOA News Russia has accused the Group of Seven leading industrialized nations of being "biased" in condemning Moscow's recognition of the breakaway ...
Russia hits back at G7 criticism
BBC News, UK - 5 hours ago
Criticism by the G7 group of nations of Russia's actions in Georgia is biased and groundless, Russian officials have said. The G7 was trying to justify ...
Russia denies violating French-brokered peace deal with Georgia
RIA Novosti, Russia - 1 hour ago
MOSCOW, August 29 (RIA Novosti) - Russia's Foreign Ministry rejected on Friday accusations from the other G8 members that Moscow has violated a peace deal ..
Re: Caucasus Crisis
+ When it comes to South Ossetia and Abkhazia, there would have been NO difference between Putin and Yeltsin.
Russian troops had been in these two territories since 1993, and it was very clear that any Georgian attempt to assert sovereignty in those areas would be met by a counter-reaction. Yeltsin would have ordered the tanks and the jets in just the same
+ Putin has made it very clear that he holds a special nostalgia for the former Soviet Union.
- He describes its collapse as "the greatest catastrophe of the 20th century"
- He restored the Red Star as the official symbol of the Russian armed forces
- He retored the Soviet Union's old anthem
- He has undone previous reforms and turned the FSB in to a carbon copy of the KGB, down to control of all border security, and busts of Andropov at Lubyanka
- He has eliminated elections for governors in the regions, and recentralised all power
- He has made it almost impossible for any media to criticise the Kremlin without facing state takeover and a choice between exile and jail time.
Its this love for Soviet ways and Soviet thinking that makes anyone who was kept down by the USSR, or who fought the USSR so very uncomfortable.
In particular he has through his actions and words he has indicated a strong interest in restoring the borders of the old Soviet Union. Borders which were in turn inherited from the Russian Empire.
There are significant numbers of states and peoples who have no desire to return to the enforded status as a province of the Russian empire, or a client of Moscow, and every desire to freely be part of Europe.
Now how they go about it is another matter - not all of them have taken confrontational paths.
Finland for example succesfully escaped the Russian Empire in 1918, and resisted Lenin's covert methods, and Stalin's invasions. But in the end they secured their freedom to remain within Europes cultural and economic space by adopting a strict military neutrality. Given Russian historical tendencies, small ex-Soviet republics that border Russia will probably have the fewest problems if they take the Finnish route.
Even among the Baltics, not all of them have an equally confrontational relationship with Russia even though all 3 have become EU and NATO members. Lithuania for example, which fought the hardest against Soviet invasion in 1940 has managed to maintain decent relations with Russia. Latvia on the other hand is another story.
Ukraine is on another scale altogether, but given their substantial Russian minority they will have to maintain a balanced policy that takes in to account ethnic Russians feelings - or they might face Russian supported secession.
Russian troops had been in these two territories since 1993, and it was very clear that any Georgian attempt to assert sovereignty in those areas would be met by a counter-reaction. Yeltsin would have ordered the tanks and the jets in just the same
+ Putin has made it very clear that he holds a special nostalgia for the former Soviet Union.
- He describes its collapse as "the greatest catastrophe of the 20th century"
- He restored the Red Star as the official symbol of the Russian armed forces
- He retored the Soviet Union's old anthem
- He has undone previous reforms and turned the FSB in to a carbon copy of the KGB, down to control of all border security, and busts of Andropov at Lubyanka
- He has eliminated elections for governors in the regions, and recentralised all power
- He has made it almost impossible for any media to criticise the Kremlin without facing state takeover and a choice between exile and jail time.
Its this love for Soviet ways and Soviet thinking that makes anyone who was kept down by the USSR, or who fought the USSR so very uncomfortable.
In particular he has through his actions and words he has indicated a strong interest in restoring the borders of the old Soviet Union. Borders which were in turn inherited from the Russian Empire.
There are significant numbers of states and peoples who have no desire to return to the enforded status as a province of the Russian empire, or a client of Moscow, and every desire to freely be part of Europe.
Now how they go about it is another matter - not all of them have taken confrontational paths.
Finland for example succesfully escaped the Russian Empire in 1918, and resisted Lenin's covert methods, and Stalin's invasions. But in the end they secured their freedom to remain within Europes cultural and economic space by adopting a strict military neutrality. Given Russian historical tendencies, small ex-Soviet republics that border Russia will probably have the fewest problems if they take the Finnish route.
Even among the Baltics, not all of them have an equally confrontational relationship with Russia even though all 3 have become EU and NATO members. Lithuania for example, which fought the hardest against Soviet invasion in 1940 has managed to maintain decent relations with Russia. Latvia on the other hand is another story.
Ukraine is on another scale altogether, but given their substantial Russian minority they will have to maintain a balanced policy that takes in to account ethnic Russians feelings - or they might face Russian supported secession.
Last edited by Johann on 29 Aug 2008 20:06, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Caucasus Crisis
Georgia was the "last straw" for Russia
Fri Aug 29, 2008 2:29pm EDT
By Oleg Shchedrov - Analysis
MOSCOW (Reuters) - A keen sense the West cheated Moscow out of promised warmer ties after the Cold War explains why Russia, recovered from post-Soviet collapse, has refused to be cowed over Georgia and demanded its views be heard.
"It could have been Georgia or something else, but some kind of 'last straw' was waiting to come along," one Kremlin official commented.
"We cannot endlessly retreat with a smiling face."
Russia's military response to Georgia's bid to retake its Moscow-backed breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and their subsequent recognition by Moscow, has fuelled Western speculation of a reborn Soviet empire striking back.
But things look totally different from Moscow, frustrated at what it sees as the West's failure to put their relations on an equal footing and its attempts to encircle Russia with a new "cordon sanitaire".
The bitterness dates back to 1990, when reformist Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev, keen to launch a new age in ties with the West, agreed to pull out troops from East Germany and give the green light to German unification.
Russia says NATO reneged on a crucial promise.
"Moscow's only condition was that NATO did not station troops in East Germany," a top Russian diplomat who took part in talks said. "The promise was given, but soon forgotten."
Some NATO officials challenge this, saying no such undertaking was given.
In the ensuing years relations with the West were further strained by NATO giving membership to Moscow's Soviet-era satellites in Eastern Europe as well as to the ex-Soviet Baltic republics -- Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania.
Poland and the Baltic states have since become vociferous critics of Russia within the U.S.-led alliance.
In 1999 Russia protested in vain against NATO's bombings of Belgrade in a military campaign which ultimately led to the West recognizing the independence of Serbia's breakaway province of Kosovo earlier this year.
"We cannot base our actions on the opinion of a state whose budget falls within the statistical error of the U.S. budget," a senior U.S. diplomat in Moscow told reporters at the time.
Top Russian officials have complained that Moscow's cooperation with the West on key international issues like the fight against terrorism, Afghanistan, Iran and North Korea have failed to translate into a qualitative change in relations.
"There is a feeling that the West treats Russia merely as a loser in the Cold War, which has to play by the winners' rules," Vladimir Putin, Russia's president for eight years until this May, once told reporters.
NEW REALITIES
In the 1990s, when Russia's economy was in ruins, Moscow hid its pride. But in the last eight years an economic boom has allowed a resurgent Russia to play a more assertive role in the global economy and international diplomacy.
Russia, a vital energy supplier for Europe and a lucrative investment location, decided it had sufficient levers and resources to speak in a different tone of voice.
The West failed to notice the change.
Putin and his successor Dmitry Medvedev have urged the West to treat Russia as an equal partner in a broader European context and review security arrangements that take account of its interests.
But Russian protests were waved aside again, Moscow says, when Washington decided to station elements of its missile defence system in Eastern Europe.
The move was seen by Moscow as a direct threat to its security despite U.S. insistence that the project is design to repel any potential attack by Iran and represents neither a political nor military threat to Russia.
The United States has also pushed heavily for NATO membership for Georgia and Ukraine -- something anathema to Russia because of its deep historical ties with these countries with whom it shares direct borders.
Russia has sent many signals that its patience was running out but the West dismissed as a rhetoric a tough speech by Putin in Munich in 2007.
Similarly, the West failed to react to other warning shots by Moscow, such as resuming flights by its strategic bombers over the Atlantic and the freezing of Russia's obligations under a key pact limiting conventional arms in Europe.
Russia's intervention in Georgia has clear signaled that Moscow has finally drawn a red line.
"The 'entente cordiale' did not work," Russia's NATO ambassador Dmitry Rogozin has said, referring to accords between Britain and France signed in the early 20th century that put a line under centuries of hostility and conflict.
"Relations should now be pragmatic," he said.
"The good performance of our army in Ossetia has already impressed our partners," he added. "We should do everything to uphold this impression and end once and forever any temptation by our partners to resolve any problems by force.."
(Writing by Oleg Shchedrov; Editing by Jon Boyle and Richard Balmforth)
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/ ... dChannel=0
Re: Caucasus Crisis
A related question:
...any idea how much (100 billion???) the western oil giants have sunk in Russia so far?
Texaco, Exxon, Shell,... etc? That can tell the level of western impotency against Russia.
We see a lot of russian oil men in Houston lately. Many US and European counterparts
also visiting Sakhalin frequently. A good number of US oilmen have found russian sweethearts who are now working as interpreters here. Apparently all these oilmen are a bit nervous, or, may be they are holding the wester govts' hands from rocking the boat any further.
...any idea how much (100 billion???) the western oil giants have sunk in Russia so far?
Texaco, Exxon, Shell,... etc? That can tell the level of western impotency against Russia.
We see a lot of russian oil men in Houston lately. Many US and European counterparts
also visiting Sakhalin frequently. A good number of US oilmen have found russian sweethearts who are now working as interpreters here. Apparently all these oilmen are a bit nervous, or, may be they are holding the wester govts' hands from rocking the boat any further.
Re: Caucasus Crisis
To add to what I said (and points mentioned by Johann), there is also this weird news of Stalin getting re-habilitated in Russian society, and even proposed to be made a Saint by the Orthodox Church. Many Russians consider him and Putin to be the greatest leaders Russia has produced. If this is indeed true, it is a massive tragedy, along the same lines of many Germans believing that Hitler is the only one that can restore Germany's lost pride after the world war I. The extensive humiliation of Germany after that war is largely supposed to be the reason for Hitler's rise. After WWII Americans and Eurpeans avoided that folly by laying all blame on the door of 'nazi' ideology and quickly making Germany part of their club with massive aid etc.
The parallels are too much to ignore...
The parallels are too much to ignore...
Re: Caucasus Crisis
- He has eliminated elections for governors in the regions, and recentralised all power
- He has made it almost impossible for any media to criticise the Kremlin without facing state takeover and a choice between exile and jail time.
Oh! I didn't know those gems. I thought Comrade Zhirinovsky was the only "hope" for bringing about those advancements any more. There was a You-tube video of him screaming:
Take him out and shoot him!
on a TV show where he got into a disagreement with a flunky of another political candidate.
Putin is definitely a believer in the centralized authority of the SU, but the alternative in Russia under Boris was not free democracy, but rule by the Mafia. Not that this is an excuse.... but that Russian "democracy" has some ways to go before reaching a stable state.
But I don't see territorial ambitions unlike the Kremlin of the 1960s and 70s. No COMINTERN exporting Revolution, and no real emphasis on military buildup at the cost of raising standard of living.
The Dawood-like language is precisely what makes me say that this is nationalistic rage and deep and urgent feelings of insecurity, with good cause behind those. What the NATO is doing is complete betrayal. It's surprising that Gorbachev hasn't committed suicide.
If this keeps up, Zhirinovsky will become next "President", and then it will be time to dust off the Fallout Shelter signs again.
Re: Caucasus Crisis
One of the gems that came out of Zhironvsky's mouth is that if he becomes President he will nuke Iran. That plus all the reports of assaults on Indian students and others, increasing racism in Russia etc., plus the news of Putin's vodka cleaning in Delhi five star hotel etc. tells us that Russian nationalism (unlike Soviet expansionism) is not going to be embracing all faiths and colors. It would be foolish indeed for India to get anywhere near it.
My prediction is that Russians, like the British and French (some extent Portugese, Spanish), will eventually get used to their 'revised' standing in global pecking order and be comfortable with that. Whether it is going to take another convincing total defeat in another Cold War is the question i hope we dont have to face.
My prediction is that Russians, like the British and French (some extent Portugese, Spanish), will eventually get used to their 'revised' standing in global pecking order and be comfortable with that. Whether it is going to take another convincing total defeat in another Cold War is the question i hope we dont have to face.
Re: Caucasus Crisis
Outside of their empire (which unfortunately included lot of people that did not want to be part of their empire) I dont think Soviets ever had 'territorial' ambitions ie seeking land or natural resources to plunder along the lines of west seeking colonies. it was export of ideology, bringing the nation under their orbit and join the fight against the imperial enemy. That is exactly what today's Russia dreams about. Putin seems to be just a product of that wish/hope/dream so it may not end with him..unless his exit is caused by or followed by a convincing defeat in ambitions and economic malaise..narayanan wrote:But I don't see territorial ambitions unlike the Kremlin of the 1960s and 70s. No COMINTERN exporting Revolution, and no real emphasis on military buildup at the cost of raising standard of living.
Re: Caucasus Crisis
A 19th centruy Russian Prince had said"Every people get the govenrment they deserve. Ours is absolutism mixed with anarchy!"
The true part is absolutism that is the core of the Russian state. Kumbaya doesnt work there. All the great absolute leaders of Russia were driven only by one goal to protect and increase the spread of Greater Russia. They all aspire to be the Third Roman Empire even during the Commuist era.
The true part is absolutism that is the core of the Russian state. Kumbaya doesnt work there. All the great absolute leaders of Russia were driven only by one goal to protect and increase the spread of Greater Russia. They all aspire to be the Third Roman Empire even during the Commuist era.
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ranganathan
- BRFite
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Re: Caucasus Crisis
As opposed to how many indian students ho got killed in US in the last 2 years???Suppiah wrote:That plus all the reports of assaults on Indian students and others, increasing racism in Russia etc., plus the news of Putin's vodka cleaning in Delhi five star hotel etc.
Has the GOI taken a position yet Or is constable MMS too afraid of telling the stupid americans a thing or two due to Nuke deal? Putin has done a smart thing by calling for cancelling NATO supply routes through russia. Now they could just supply the iraqi insurgents through iran and the stupidity of bush's policy in caucus will be evident to everyone.Re: Caucasus Crisis
Bear will eat less amreekaan chicken .....
UPDATE 1-Russia bans poultry imports from 19 U.S. suppliers
Fri Aug 29, 2008 11:53am EDT
(Adds watchdog, ministry statements, affected companies)
By Aleksandras Budrys
MOSCOW, Aug 29 (Reuters) - Russia, the biggest market for U.S. poultry exporters, will ban imports from 19 producers in the United States and warned on Friday that another 29 suppliers face a possible ban on health and safety grounds.
The ban will take effect from Sept. 1 and includes two plants belonging to U.S. meat giant Tyson Foods Inc (TSN.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), Russia's animal and plant health watchdog said, a day after Prime Minister Vladimir Putin first spoke of the measures.
"Joint Russian-U.S. inspections of U.S. poultry processing plants at the end of July and the beginning of August showed a number of inspected plants do not fully observe the agreed standards," the watchdog, Rosselkhoznadzor, said in a statement.
"The inspection showed that many plants have not taken steps to eliminate faults discovered by previous inspections."
The United States last year exported nearly $1 billion worth of poultry, mainly frozen chicken leg quarters, and other meat products to Russia. The ban comes as Moscow prepares separate cuts to existing meat import quotas to help domestic suppliers.
Rosselkhoznadzor said its inspectors had not been allowed to visit some poultry farms and had not received results of a probe into a possible excess of arsenic in some U.S. poultry supplied to Russia.
It said it wanted to receive these results within one month.
"A timely reception of this information by Rosselkhoznadzor will prevent the imposition of restrictions on poultry imports to Russia for 22 plants belonging to Tyson Foods, four plants of Peco Foods and three plants of the Equity Group," it said.
DANGEROUS BACTERIA
Agriculture Minister Alexei Gordeyev, in a separate statement, said inspectors had more than once found an excess of arsenic, salmonella, E.coli and other dangerous bacteria in shipments of U.S. poultry to Russia.
He said the bans on 19 U.S. poultry producers would not damage the Russian poultry market, as domestic output had risen.
"In the last seven years, poultry meat output has been rising annually by 15 percent," Gordeyev said. He said Russia planned to raise poultry meat output by more than 300,000 tonnes this year from the 1.9 million tonnes produced in 2007.
The minister said poultry meat and pork import quotas should also be cut by hundreds of thousands of tonnes.
"It is time to change the quota regime and to cut imports, which, lamentably, have been rising in the last few years."
Russia regulates imports of poultry and red meat by tariff quotas, which have been fixed for 2005-2009. The United States has the largest share of the poultry quotas.
U.S. industry sources told Reuters on Thursday, after Putin's remarks to U.S. broadcaster CNN, that Moscow had not yet contacted its poultry industry or government on the ban [ID:nN28334888].
In March 2002, Russia banned all U.S. poultry for about one month, citing safety concerns such as salmonella contamination. The lifting of the ban involved top level politicians, including U.S. President George W. Bush and Putin, then Russian president.
Rosselkhoznadzor identified the banned suppliers by numbers. The numbers are listed below, and the full names of the plants can be found on the Food Safety and Inspection Service's (FSIS) Web site: here
Supplier numbers subject to the ban: P-00003, P-164, P-190, P-239, P-244, P-247, P-519, P-522, P-550, P-667, P-727, P-758, P-6510, P-6616, P-7101, P-7769, P-8727, P-19128, P-20979. To see a recent Reuters story on poultry import quota cuts, please double-click on [ID:nL9714443] To see a FACTBOX on Russian 2005-2009 meat import quotas,please double-click on [ID:nL5608621]. (Editing by Robin Paxton, Editing by Peter Blackburn)
UPDATE 1-Russia bans poultry imports from 19 U.S. suppliers
Fri Aug 29, 2008 11:53am EDT
(Adds watchdog, ministry statements, affected companies)
By Aleksandras Budrys
MOSCOW, Aug 29 (Reuters) - Russia, the biggest market for U.S. poultry exporters, will ban imports from 19 producers in the United States and warned on Friday that another 29 suppliers face a possible ban on health and safety grounds.
The ban will take effect from Sept. 1 and includes two plants belonging to U.S. meat giant Tyson Foods Inc (TSN.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), Russia's animal and plant health watchdog said, a day after Prime Minister Vladimir Putin first spoke of the measures.
"Joint Russian-U.S. inspections of U.S. poultry processing plants at the end of July and the beginning of August showed a number of inspected plants do not fully observe the agreed standards," the watchdog, Rosselkhoznadzor, said in a statement.
"The inspection showed that many plants have not taken steps to eliminate faults discovered by previous inspections."
The United States last year exported nearly $1 billion worth of poultry, mainly frozen chicken leg quarters, and other meat products to Russia. The ban comes as Moscow prepares separate cuts to existing meat import quotas to help domestic suppliers.
Rosselkhoznadzor said its inspectors had not been allowed to visit some poultry farms and had not received results of a probe into a possible excess of arsenic in some U.S. poultry supplied to Russia.
It said it wanted to receive these results within one month.
"A timely reception of this information by Rosselkhoznadzor will prevent the imposition of restrictions on poultry imports to Russia for 22 plants belonging to Tyson Foods, four plants of Peco Foods and three plants of the Equity Group," it said.
DANGEROUS BACTERIA
Agriculture Minister Alexei Gordeyev, in a separate statement, said inspectors had more than once found an excess of arsenic, salmonella, E.coli and other dangerous bacteria in shipments of U.S. poultry to Russia.
He said the bans on 19 U.S. poultry producers would not damage the Russian poultry market, as domestic output had risen.
"In the last seven years, poultry meat output has been rising annually by 15 percent," Gordeyev said. He said Russia planned to raise poultry meat output by more than 300,000 tonnes this year from the 1.9 million tonnes produced in 2007.
The minister said poultry meat and pork import quotas should also be cut by hundreds of thousands of tonnes.
"It is time to change the quota regime and to cut imports, which, lamentably, have been rising in the last few years."
Russia regulates imports of poultry and red meat by tariff quotas, which have been fixed for 2005-2009. The United States has the largest share of the poultry quotas.
U.S. industry sources told Reuters on Thursday, after Putin's remarks to U.S. broadcaster CNN, that Moscow had not yet contacted its poultry industry or government on the ban [ID:nN28334888].
In March 2002, Russia banned all U.S. poultry for about one month, citing safety concerns such as salmonella contamination. The lifting of the ban involved top level politicians, including U.S. President George W. Bush and Putin, then Russian president.
Rosselkhoznadzor identified the banned suppliers by numbers. The numbers are listed below, and the full names of the plants can be found on the Food Safety and Inspection Service's (FSIS) Web site: here
Supplier numbers subject to the ban: P-00003, P-164, P-190, P-239, P-244, P-247, P-519, P-522, P-550, P-667, P-727, P-758, P-6510, P-6616, P-7101, P-7769, P-8727, P-19128, P-20979. To see a recent Reuters story on poultry import quota cuts, please double-click on [ID:nL9714443] To see a FACTBOX on Russian 2005-2009 meat import quotas,please double-click on [ID:nL5608621]. (Editing by Robin Paxton, Editing by Peter Blackburn)
Re: Caucasus Crisis
Its better to have multilateral politics in the world with appropriate checks and balances.
No one wants only American way of thought or Russian way of thought
I think the world is moving toward multilateralism and that is good. We have seen unilateral behaviour from US and it does not really help anyone
No one wants only American way of thought or Russian way of thought
I think the world is moving toward multilateralism and that is good. We have seen unilateral behaviour from US and it does not really help anyone
Re: Caucasus Crisis
Time to testprabir wrote:Its better to have multilateral politics in the world with appropriate checks and balances.
No one wants only American way of thought or Russian way of thought
I think the world is moving toward multilateralism and that is good. We have seen unilateral behaviour from US and it does not really help anyone
Re: Caucasus Crisis
If they were 14 shots, the number of the captured pilots were much higher, also they have shown only 2-3 remnants over all. BTW Russia has admitted 4 losses immidiately, not waited till last week, as 'US analist' said.Philip wrote: Even in retreat and although suffering attacks on radar sites, Georgian air defenses appeared to be taking a steady toll of Russian aircraft. Russia admitted to losing four aircraft while the Georgians claim 14 shot down in the conflict. Last week they had admitted to the destruction of three Su-25 Frogfoot strike aircraft and the Backfire, said U.S. analysts.
Re: Caucasus Crisis
Igorr, maybe the Georgian Pakis are claiming to have shot down 11 of their own too. 
Note that one of the Russian losses was a "friendly fire" incident, which suggests a poor level of IFF/ coordination of land and air forces for a superpower. Maybe they neglected to change the IFF signatures on the Su-25 when the plant was lost to Georgia in 1990 so both sides fired at any Su-25 they saw.
So that leaves only 3 hits for the Georgians. But if they claim they hit and brought down 11 more Su-25s, hey, who am I to argue?
Note that one of the Russian losses was a "friendly fire" incident, which suggests a poor level of IFF/ coordination of land and air forces for a superpower. Maybe they neglected to change the IFF signatures on the Su-25 when the plant was lost to Georgia in 1990 so both sides fired at any Su-25 they saw.
So that leaves only 3 hits for the Georgians. But if they claim they hit and brought down 11 more Su-25s, hey, who am I to argue?
Re: Caucasus Crisis
"Georgia's breakaway region of South Ossetia has signalled that it will formally seek to merge with Russia."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... ussia.html
This was expected since they wanted to re-unite with north Ossetia. So that leaves Abkhazia. Abkhazia will remain an Independent Ally I guess.
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Add to that Russia has always been vary of china's intentions and has been reluctant to share some tech with China.
The relationship between Russia & China is based on mutual fear of each other. It's not good to have a powerful adversary as your neighbor, so the end result is maintain a friendly outlook with each other, but at the same time be wary strategically.
India & Russia both share a border dispute with an economically fast growing nation of 1.5(??) billion people. Russia and India are natural Allies in this aspect.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... ussia.html
This was expected since they wanted to re-unite with north Ossetia. So that leaves Abkhazia. Abkhazia will remain an Independent Ally I guess.
----
After the cold war ended, the U.S was the first to start the poking their noses where they don't belong. The russians, being less powerful, just played the game by their rules.But Russia has been challenging US positions practically on all fronts, sometimes taking positions simply to give nuisance.
It's not going to be Russia? Given the fact that one of the top(if not the No:1) priorities for most nations is to have territorial integrity, and together with the fact that Russia and China have a border dispute for thousands of sq.miles of land, how can you state that "It is not going to be Russia". Infact Russia is the primary nation of choice.That brings us the question of who will be similarly placed - so will naturally have something in common with us. It is not going to be Russia, seeing how she is more than willing to cut deals with China, give her all arms and not have any issues with what each other does with Georgia's and Tibets (and India's).
Add to that Russia has always been vary of china's intentions and has been reluctant to share some tech with China.
The relationship between Russia & China is based on mutual fear of each other. It's not good to have a powerful adversary as your neighbor, so the end result is maintain a friendly outlook with each other, but at the same time be wary strategically.
India & Russia both share a border dispute with an economically fast growing nation of 1.5(??) billion people. Russia and India are natural Allies in this aspect.