India-US News and Discussion

[Pranav]

Has Manmohan invested too much in relationship with US? Video with Swapan Dasgupta, Lisa Curtis, Paul Beckett, and Barkha Dutt.

http://www.ndtv.com/news/videos/video_p ... id=1218196

[Gagan]

India's Nuclear Example

By RORY MEDCALF

U.S. President Barack Obama's nuclear-security summit this week raised speculation in the media once again about a South Asian arms race. There is understandably deep concern in many capitals about the apparent acceleration of Pakistan's production of fissile material for nuclear weapons, a potential source of leakage to terrorists. But the implication that India is also participating in some sort of unbridled nuclear-arms race needs to be treated with caution. In fact, in some ways New Delhi's nuclear-weapons posture could be the model to which President Obama's new policy of American nuclear restraint aspires.

...

[RamaY]

Don't want to start a pi$$ing-match, but from above article

India appears to be shaping—through choice as much as necessity—a minimum credible nuclear deterrent. Publicly available estimates of its arsenal size suggest that the second most populous nation in the world, located in a dangerous regional neighborhood and with two nuclear-armed neighbors, has only tens of nuclear warheads at its disposal, perhaps none of them thermonuclear.

[ramana]

shh! You will get trolled out.

[Amber G.]

xpost:

In a statement preceding the press conference, Dr Singh described as the "next logical step" after New Delhi's recent nuclear deal, his announcement about the setting up of new Global Centre for Nuclear Energy Partnership in India. The offer was welcomed by President Obama as "one more tool to establish best practices."

Almost on cue, Pakistan, still in disgrace over its proliferation activities, also offered a "global nuclear fuel cycle services," leading to much mirth at the summit that it had merely made "official" what it had always offered clandestinely.

Link: MMS - India US Ties

Also from above:

Ties between India and the United States are sound, multi-faceted, and he shares "a very good relationship" with President Barack Obama, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh maintained here on Tuesday, responding to inquiries about the purported cooling off of New Delhi's engagement with Washington.
....
"There should be no confusion on that point," Dr Singh said about any implied comparison between India's ties with the Obama and Bush administrations, suggesting that New Delhi went with the flow. "In matters of statecraft," he said cryptically in response to a related question about translating good ties into concrete action, "one shouldn't jump prematurely to conclusions which are not warranted by the facts on the ground."

Indian officials explained on the margins of the visit that the reading in the media and the analysts community that somehow US-India ties had tailed off and President Obama was not enthused about India was completely off the mark. In nearly half-dozen meetings since they both came to office, the Prime Minister and Obama shared an excellent relationship that the US President encapsulated in a remark during their latest engagement.

"There is no country in the world where the opportunities for a strong strategic partnership are greater and more important to me personally and to the United States than the one with India," Indian officials quoted Obama as telling the PM on Sunday. Dr Singh appeared to respond to that sentiment, saying India thought highly of him and a warm welcome awaited him when he visits the country later this year.

Dr Singh also rejected the implication that New Delhi's was bringing its complaints about Pakistan to Washington, clarifying that he was merely keeping the US and the international community in the loop when they inquired about India's neighborhood and its bilateral relations. "Ultimately, India has to tackle problems on its own. But international sentiment and international opinion does matter and if anyone asks me...I explain our perspective," Dr Singh clarified.

The Prime Minister took this opening to reiterate that if Pakistan took credible steps to bring to book perpetrators of the "horrible" crime in Mumbai ("that's the minimum we expect"), India would be more than happy to begin talking about all issues. The statement pointed to bilateral issues being put on the backburner when he meets his Pakistani counterpart at the Saarc summit in Bhutan later this month and a continuing freeze on Islamabad unless it shows some results before that.

Dr Singh also restated the familiar Indian position that it will not brook any direct US mediation on its issues with Pakistan which needed to be resolved in a bilateral framework, saying, "I do not feel there is a role for any outside force to come in."

However, asked whether President Obama would act on the concerns on terrorism he had flagged during their meeting on Sunday, the Prime Minister said, "Well, I hope that what I said to the President weighs considerably with the administration but I am not an astrologer. I cannot predict what will be the final shape of things to come."

[Prem Kumar]

B Raman on Obama and India US relatioship. Similar to what I was saying about looking at the actions and not sweet talk.
That's why the CR piece in TOI seemed like spin to show all is well. Also suits PMO since they are seen as the biggest backers of pro US policies.


http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers ... r3761.html

What I Cautioned About Obama Before He Became President

Thanks for that article csharma. B Raman's predictions have been spot-on regarding Obama's Af-Pak strategy, Kashmir, China and the Nuke deal. Hats off to him!! This article needs to be distributed broadly.

[Chinmayanand]

In his second term, when that equation changes, then relations might be different.

Do you mean that he will be re-elected ?

[Carl_T]

If the economy improves, there is no way he'll lose.

That is all that matters.

[ramana]

If the economy improves, there is no way he'll lose.

That is all that matters.

Especially with the current crop of Republican dimwits. All they can offer is more Bible.

[Mort Walker]

In his second term, when that equation changes, then relations might be different.

Do you mean that he will be re-elected ?

Incumbents typically get re-elected. However, even with the improving economy, a large portion of the US economy is based on consumer spending and since consumer lending has become tight, total recovery to mid 2008 levels will take longer. The 10-year treasuries issued to finance the wars in Iraq & Afghanistan from 2001-2003 will start maturing from next year through the 2012 election and it may adversely impact the US Dollar and will affect US Federal Reserve lending rates which will make consumer lending even more expensive. All of this will have an impact on job growth and employment.

Re-election is more dependent on unemployment which will continue to be high. Unemployment along with high energy prices in Oct. 2012 will be a good indicator of what will happen. The key in the US is the electoral college and how states will vote. As of today, Obama will win, but with a smaller electoral majority. My prediction is that it will be 274 to 264 in Obama's favor, and if the Republicans are smart enough, they will push hard in key counties in key states to squeak out a victory. IMHO, the states of FL, VA, NC and IN are lost and will not come back to Obama in 2012. Ohio will also go provided there is sufficient turn out in the southern counties along the Kentucky border. The Republicans can not afford to alienate immigrants and minorities, and the current party leadership idiots need to step back and let people like Carl Rove & David Frum back in to the game to win. JMT.

Now what does this have to do with India-US relations? Well, if Obama is busy with domestic issues, then India may be better off being neglected to continue to grow.

[Shalav]

What sort of pride can come from being included in NAM? Alternatively what sort of shame can come from not being included?
...
...
...

Nothing at all! It is but a needle point at best. My attempt at sarcastic demagoguery fell completely flat I see - just ignore only.

[Amber G.]

If the economy improves, there is no way he'll lose.

That is all that matters.

According to recent CNN Poll (Apr 9-11 time period ) (pdf link:
https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http ... /rel7d.pdf
Obama is still by far the most national politician in the United States, which stacked leading Republicans against the president and asked who respondents would vote for in 2012.

The poll shows Obama topping Romney 53 percent to 45 percent, beating Huckabee 54 percent to 45 percent, defeating Gingrich 55 percent to 43 percent and topping Palin 55 percent to 42
(The poll has some other interesting info too...)

[Mort Walker]

^^^

As you know from 2000, you can loose the popular vote and still win the electoral vote. Its about state voting patterns.

[Karna_A]

The poll shows Obama topping Romney 53 percent to 45 percent, beating Huckabee 54 percent to 45 percent, defeating Gingrich 55 percent to 43 percent and topping Palin 55 percent to 42
(The poll has some other interesting info too...)

Palin 42% !!
Stupidity has surely become a virtue.
http://www.amazon.com/Idiot-America-Stu ... 0767926145

[Carl_T]

President Palin.

The fact that Gingrich is even in this discussion shows desperation on the GOP's part. They were hoping for Petraeus earlier but since he is not an option they are searching around. Gingrich is in actuality a decent choice for the GOP faithful, but for the rest of the nation, not so much. Same for Huckabee. Romney seems like a relatively strong candidate for the nomination though. I have a feeling Jindal will be gunning for 2016.

Obama's next two years need to be a disaster for him to lose the next election. With the healthcare bill, his place in history is secure, his only priority now is to find ways of improving the economy and lowering the unemployment rate.

[Mort Walker]

^^^

Gigngrich is more pro-India than Obama, but he's not a viable candidate. Huckabee is a has-been governor of a backward state and nothing more than a guitar-picking mullah. Romney will not make it through the primaries because he's Mormon and the Republican base hates Mormons. Jindal & wife are Christian converts and should he win in the primary, the Democrats will spread rumors about him being a satan worshiper, thus causing keeping his voters away from the polls.

If the Republicans can get Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota or Haley Barbour of Mississippi with Condi Rice as VP, they have half-a-chance. It would also be good from an Indian POV.

[Karna_A]

President Palin.

The fact that Gingrich is even in this discussion shows desperation on the GOP's part. They were hoping for Petraeus earlier but since he is not an option they are searching around. Gingrich is in actuality a decent choice for the GOP faithful, .

1. I am the Lord your God
2. You shall have no other gods before me
3. You shall not make for yourself an idol
4. You shall not make wrongful use of the name of your God
5. Remember the Sabbath and keep it holy
6. Honor your father and mother
7. You shall not murder
8. You shall not commit adultery
9. You shall not steal
10. You shall not bear false witness against your neighbor /
You shall not covet your neighbor's wife

Gingrich was dating his third wife while he was cheating his first "dying with cancer" wife with his second wife.

That means he is not following at least 4 of the above 10 commandments.
Although competent, he is ineligible for reasons above and Palin may get more votes than him!
Palin will surely cause "Andheri Nagari Chaupat Raja"
http://www.boloji.com/rt2/rt159.htm

I doubt Palin knows difference between Red Indians and East Indians.

[Amber G.]

NSA talks Headley access with US

[negi]

World is safer after N-summit: Obama

Wonder what was passed around on the high table , 'pineapple express' ?

[Hari Seldon]

prad,

no mention even of sri Ron Paul? I'm disappointed only.

[Pranav]

prad,

no mention even of sri Ron Paul? I'm disappointed only.

Be careful about the "controlled opposition" phenomenon. The idea is to support a dummy opposition to lure the malcontents and dissipate their energies.

[Mort Walker]

Prad,

In your list I think only a state governor can make it through the GOP primaries. That leaves Mitch Daniels, Rick Perry, Charlie Christ, Tim Pawlenty, and our favorite Bobby Jindal. In this list Christ and Jindal are out. It's too early and we have to see what happens in the mid term house and senate races. What impact it has US-India relations, I don't know, but some Republican idiots will drag India's name into congressional hearings just so they can cut off their nose to spite their face.

[Carl_T]

I think Romney is the only one right now at least who is well known enough throughout the country and will have support beyond the Republican faithful. Others will emerge, but I think this guy is the frontrunner.

[Mort Walker]

^^^Nope. Mormons are hated in the south and bible belt and he can't make it through the primaries. Romney is also anti immigrant and Mormon church doctrine states that black persons were created by god so that they would work as servants for white people in heaven. I kid you not. Romney is guaranteed to loose against Obama in 2012 and if Republicans can't see that, then they deserve to loose.

[Anurag]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... theadlines
India's Nuclear Example
Delhi is trying to manage its arsenal responsibly. It deserves respect, and some help.

By RORY MEDCALF

U.S. President Barack Obama's nuclear-security summit this week raised speculation in the media once again about a South Asian arms race. There is understandably deep concern in many capitals about the apparent acceleration of Pakistan's production of fissile material for nuclear weapons, a potential source of leakage to terrorists. But the implication that India is also participating in some sort of unbridled nuclear-arms race needs to be treated with caution. In fact, in some ways New Delhi's nuclear-weapons posture could be the model to which President Obama's new policy of American nuclear restraint aspires.

India appears to be shaping—through choice as much as necessity—a minimum credible nuclear deterrent. Publicly available estimates of its arsenal size suggest that the second most populous nation in the world, located in a dangerous regional neighborhood and with two nuclear-armed neighbors, has only tens of nuclear warheads at its disposal, perhaps none of them thermonuclear. By comparison, the United States has about 2,700 deployed strategic warheads, and Russia has around 3,900. Both countries also have substantial tactical stockpiles—yet both are presenting their new treaty to reduce those figures to 1,550 apiece as a great leap for disarmament.

View Full Image

Associated Press
The Agni III ballistic missile

New Delhi has, by and large, a declared "no first use" nuclear-weapons policy. India qualified this policy in 2003 to reserve the right for India to strike back at chemical or biological attacks—a stance which the U.S. is now beginning to move away from. But India's nuclear doctrine remains overwhelmingly defensive and focused on deterrence.

Of all the nuclear-armed states, India has been the most active in promoting global agreement on no first use—including through bilateral and multilateral treaties—and on negative security assurances, or guarantees not to strike non-nuclear states. Even China, the most self-righteous doctrinal champion of no first use, has rejected India's overtures for a bilateral pact, not wishing to be seen to bestow any form of nuclear legitimacy on a power it likes to pretend is not a rival.

Questions remain about the effectiveness of New Delhi's deterrent, and its likely need to enhance, if not expand, the arsenal. Ultimately, a no-first-use policy can be credible only if it is accompanied by what security wonks like to call an "assured second-strike capability." In other words, India needs to be confident that enough of its assets would survive an enemy's first strike for New Delhi to be able to retaliate.

The best chance of assuring second-strike capability comes from a submarine-based deterrent, and that is exactly what New Delhi has slowly and unevenly been pursuing over the years. Progress is finally being made on this front, with sea trials of an indigenously produced nuclear-powered submarine—presumably with Russian help, indirect or otherwise—and advances toward developing a suitable missile, albeit with short range.

But India is, at the very least, years away from being able to use submarines to deter its two potential nuclear adversaries, Pakistan or China. Though many arms-control scholars might not like to acknowledge it, India's eventual success in fashioning such a strategic tool might just end up being a net benefit for strategic stability in Asia as China increases its power, reach and confidence.

In the meantime, Pakistan's efforts to expand its arsenal could be seen as a bid to gain not just parity but even nuclear superiority over India. This is especially troubling given the context of the Pakistani army's continued forbearance, if not support, for the use of Pakistan's territory as a base for terrorism against Indian targets, despite India's conventional military advantage.

So it is surprising how relaxed the Indian effort at expanding its nuclear capability continues to be. Of course, this could change, were New Delhi genuinely to see nuclear weapons as its top national defense priority—in other words, were India to adopt the Cold War superpowers' arms-race mentality.

Paradoxically, treating India as part of the proliferation problem, rather than part of the solution, may only encourage New Delhi down such a dire path. Closer U.S.-India strategic ties are needed partly as a way of giving India the sort of strategic confidence it needs to keep its arsenal small.

Some critics of the U.S.-India civil nuclear deal argue that it has helped drive nuclear competition between India and Pakistan, by "freeing up" for weapons purposes parts of India's small domestic atomic-energy infrastructure. After all, although the deal puts a growing majority of India's reactors under International Atomic Energy Agency monitoring, New Delhi has declined to allow such "safeguards" to be enacted for its experimental fast-breeder program and eight indigenous power reactors, though they are far from ideal for bomb making.

However, Pakistan's actual behavior and India's potential behavior are very different things. Treating them with artificial equivalence, in the old hyphenated way, is a sure way to alienate India from the U.S. nuclear arms control and security endeavors.

Of all the powers, India was the one most short-changed by the 1970 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. The world can no longer afford to leave it out of the nonproliferation and nuclear security tent, which is why it was a relief that even though the media talked about it, a South Asian nuclear arms race remained off the official agenda in Washington this week.

Mr. Medcalf directs the international security program at the Lowy Institute in Sydney.

[Philip]

Amazing for India to be described as "relaxed",when Pak is pulling out all stops in expansion of its nuclear arsenal and production facilities.It will be a dereliction of duty if the GOI does not wake up and see the immense danger,where as has been stated,Pak is attempting nuclear superiority to India and has almost 100 N-warheads.US aid meant for comabting terrorism is being used as it was misused during the Zia regime.The Paki military is playing ture to form and India remains a soft cuddly toy,that can be squeezed and twisted out of shape by Uncle Sam to "accomodate Pak".The time is long past when India must adopt a "Cold War" mentatlity towards its nuclear deterrence and build up a second strike force capable of handling both Pak and China.Does anyone in their true honesty dream that the US will come to our aid iof either Pak or China attacks us with N-weapons? It will simply side with the victor.

So it is surprising how relaxed the Indian effort at expanding its nuclear capability continues to be. Of course, this could change, were New Delhi genuinely to see nuclear weapons as its top national defense priority—in other words, were India to adopt the Cold War superpowers' arms-race mentality.

[Lilo]

Just came across this interactive map in NYT.

Though its a bit old , it gives an excellent perspective on the immigration make up to US.
Hope was not posted earlier in this thread.

[Hari Seldon]

4 hrs ago from TOI-let online

India to receive $4.5 million US assistance to fight terrorism

WASHINGTON: With India requesting for higher-level training from the United States in the wake of 26/11 Mumbai attacks, the Obama administration has asked the Congress to double its anti-terrorism budget to India to $4.5 million for the fiscal 2011.

Testifying before a Congressional committee, coordinator for counter-terrorism in the department of states Daniel Benjamin on Wednesday said such a decision by the Obama administration follows a request from India in the aftermath of the Mumbai-terrorist attack that killed more than 166 people, six of whom were Americans.

Wow. thank you unkil. You've gone antaryaami, seems like.... jai unkil, jai unkil....

[Mort Walker]

• $7,554 by the U.S. Embassy in India in September 2008 for a "supply of alcoholic beverages for gratuities."

US Taxpayer Foots State Dept's Liquor Bill

So, about $7500 in Sep 08? I wonder for who these gratuities were for and how often was this done? Every month or couple of months?

[amdavadi]

Self deleted....

[CRamS]

Guys:

Don't mean to sound like a conspiratorial nut, but given Masa was dead set against sale of Russian cryogenic engines to India under the MTCR regime, what are the chanes that this failure of ISRO's GSLV mission with indigenous cryogenic engines was due to a sophisticated cyber attack or through an internal hired mole injecting a virus? Remember, anything in national interest is passe, including Paki savages slaughtering Indians as "front-line allies".

[Carl_T]

Is it in the interest of the US to sabotage the rocket? Has NASA not collaborated with ISRO? IIRC believe some critical instruments on Chandrayaan were American.

Not to mention, such an act would not kill the project but delay it.

Now a Chinese hacker...

[Singha]

well unlike russia where they let 100s of workers mill around the launch pad to backslap the outgoing astronauts, our ISRO security levels are pretty paranoid level. I drove once past the Hassan facility and brother I have not seen such 'bundobast' in dilli cantonment or lutyens dilli for that matter.

initially I thought it was some ARC or strategic command facility, only when
I spotted the big white dishes in rear view mirror, realized what it was.

[Prasad]

I rem visiting shar when in college. Kinda gives a feeling of being in a much much bigger iitm campus, only there was a slr toting security posse at each and every checkpoint inside and near the main areas. Pretty sure the place would be swarming with insas and slr toting CISF folks during launches.

[Karan Dixit]

INSAS are useless against a computer hacker.

[Singha]

more than hackers, it would be sabotaged parts we need to be careful of.
sher khan types have expertise in modifying the low level behaviour of common chips in the directions desired...like failing after being powered on for 10 mins.

I am sure the avionics packages are test run on the ground for N hours to
weed out such time bound traps.

other things like sensors can also be tested in same way on ground using
pressure chambers to simulate upper atmosphere and then vacuum and
radiation.

[lakshmikanth]

^^^CRS sahib,

I guess it's plausible but highly improbable.

Here is why:

GSLV has an on board computer that is most likely gonna be a highly optimized embedded system running some embedded RTOS (real time operating sytem). Most likely this RTOS would be inhouse (because of technology denial) or be something opensource(again due to tech denial). In both cases it would be extremely unlikely that there would be US virus inserted into this system without the knowledge of someone involved in the project, as the entire code base is handled by the ISRO. Also because of the real time requirements the software would be tested to death, and if there are any "easter-eggs" in the code it would be weeded out in sometime while the simulation is going on.

Also note that the software does not know whether its a real launch or not, so the easter-egg can pop up any time and destroy the mission.

The same applies to materials. If we unit test those materials that are imported from the US, and find them to be meeting spec, its not much of a worry (ofcourse if the material has intelligence of its own like GPS connectivity.. its a different issue). But simple materials are not easy to compromise if testing and QA department of ISRO is good (i assume its very good)

If there is a US hand in this... it would most likely be in the form of a mole. I dont know the likely hood of that.

[shukla]

US Deputy Secretary of State on India visit next week.

US Deputy Secretary of State, James Steinberg, will be travelling to India next week, a senior US official has said.

Mr. Steinberg will also visit Bangladesh during his trip slated between April 20-22, which would also be his first visit to the region as Deputy Secretary.“During his trip to the region Deputy Secretary Steinberg will meet with government officials and other political figures and business, civil society, and opinion leaders in New Delhi, Kolkata, and Dhaka,” said Assistant Secretary of State for Public Affairs P J Crowley.

“He will discuss a range of bilateral and multilateral issues that advance our bilateral relationships with both India and Bangladesh,” he said.“Deputy Secretary Steinberg looks forward to his visit to India and Bangladesh,” Mr. Crowley said. His visit comes close on the heels of the scheduled Indo-US Strategic Dialogue in June. Earlier in the day, Indian Ambassador to US Meera Shankar met the Deputy Secretary, which officials termed as a routine visit.

[narasimha]

The current state of Indo - US relations leaves much to be desired. President Obama does not seem to share much enthusiasm for India as a country. India must hedge and develop options alternate to the United States

[Amber G.]

Guys:

Don't mean to sound like a conspiratorial nut, but given Masa was dead set against sale of Russian cryogenic engines to India under the MTCR regime, what are the chanes that this failure of ISRO's GSLV mission with indigenous cryogenic engines was due to a sophisticated cyber attack or through an internal hired mole injecting a virus? Remember, anything in national interest is passe, including Paki savages slaughtering Indians as "front-line allies".

Don't want to be harsh, but honestly this sounds exactly like a conspiratorial nut theory