The US and China in Pakistan - their respective roles

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Gus
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Re: The US and China in Pakistan - their respective roles

Post by Gus »

shiv wrote:Whichever way you slice the cake the US comes out looking bad

For example, some people have expressed the view that the USA is so so powerful that it can handle Pakistan in a trice.
..
on the other hand the US really is nervous of Pakistani nukes, it means that US power is not all that it is advertised to be and the US is a vulnerable power playing games beyond its capability. Like Pakistan the US is punching above its weight.
And both these answers are projected in such a way that unkils H&D is well protected. No criticism.

Why Unkil cannot handle Pakis?
- Unkil can swat Pakis like a mosquito whenever they want to
Then why is it not doing so?
- It doesn't have to. It can swat Pakis like a mosquito. (why is India blah blah blah...)
Then why is it taking hits and not able to carry out its stated objectives in Afg?
-Pakis have nukes..imagine nukes fall into the hands of islamist
And the paki army is not islamist?
- well..maybe so, but Unkil can swat Pakis like mosquito...and why is India not handling Pakis the way US is handling it :roll:
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Re: The US and China in Pakistan - their respective roles

Post by shiv »

Altair wrote:shiv
A rogue Pakistani nuke exploding in any part of USA would cause more damage to US than a rogue nuke hitting Indian metro.
:mrgreen: er you didn't mean exactly that did you - maybe you need to reconstruct that sentence? I mean any nuke on the US would cause more damage to US than any nuke on India no?
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Re: The US and China in Pakistan - their respective roles

Post by Altair »

US stands to loose more if a nuke hits India. It will loose Pakistan in a super massive mushroom cloud and drive India away from Western world for the next century.
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Re: The US and China in Pakistan - their respective roles

Post by shiv »

A beautifully expressed passage. I need to learn to express myself like that
How the West Lost Us
I think that the Western media has persisted for far too long with a framework of reporting that is disconnected from reality, and this showed all too sadly in its approach to Mumbai. It continues an old imperialism, unreflectively enjoying its discursive overlordship over South Asia by presenting India and Pakistan as "rivals," as if that is what a billion and a half people think of all the time. It continues a selfish cold-war era framework of false moral equivalence between India and Pakistan, reporting that the countries have fought four wars without once naming an aggressor, chirpily discounting every Indian grievance with a clever Pakistani government retort (see this piece in Times of India). And it grants a voice it seems, to only one sort of South Asian and South Asianist opinion: one that finds fault in India, even when at least one cause lies elsewhere.
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Re: The US and China in Pakistan - their respective roles

Post by nvishal »

The US and its allies have agreed on a design(a structure) wrt to world governance. Believe it or not, both china and russia play(consciously) a positive role in "maintaining" and "developing" this structure. The whole US v/s Russia v/s China is just a power tussle. It does not mean that any of these N5 states oppose this "structure". Note the importance of N5 in this structure; some are of lesser strength compared to the other but none of them are "subordinates" to the other. Their strategic plans match most of the time but sometimes they do not(eg: Afg) and this disagreement prevents a solution.

India is not a part of this structure. Nehru might have been prevented by compulsions during the indo-china war but his idea of "disassociation" from the structure continues to this day whether it be nda or upa.

The decision by the MMRCA is a substantial proof of this idea. Most people do not understand india's strategic decisions. They do not understand that india wouldn't have chosen the US and its allies even if the F22 was up for sale. The hierarchy of autonomy flows like below:

1) US
2) US allies
3) N5
4) Spectator states(sheeps?)

Autonomy decreases to a complete zilch once you move from bottom to the top. France is still a part of the N5 and its structure. Lets hope that india bought the whole rafale program because that alone can guarantee unquestionable autonomy.

It's very important that everyone understands the concept of N5 to avoid confusion. I know everyone "instinctively" recognizes the convergence between US and china but are not able to put it in words or a narrative. First read the NAM which was an attempt to bring down the structure. This is why india is more at odds with the N5 than they are with themselves.
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Re: The US and China in Pakistan - their respective roles

Post by JohnTitor »

Altair wrote:Case-2: I am crazy and I want to hit the kaffirs
(A) Hit Mumbai.
Result: Invite automatic massive nuclear strike. Pakistan becomes largest source of radioactive glass in the solar system.
(B) Hit New York or even an Aircraft Carrier Battle Group in PG
Result: Invite automatic massive nuclear strike. Pakistan becomes largest source of radioactive glass in the solar system.

I can see that I have a better chance of making money if I sell my nuke and milk money from USA. Why cant US understand this simple mentality?
Extremely unlikely, Those in power lack the spine to make a huge call like that. Such a decision needs to be based in doctrine and has to be shown in other matters when dealing with Pak (be it geopolitical, economic or military). You can't be soft when 10men go on a rampage in the economic capital and believe the same government will show spine if a nuke goes off in Mumbai. (psychologically) It doesn't work that way. Added to that our government has never shown spine when it comes to bringing to justice those who hurt us (including those involved in the Bhopal tragedy, where INC itself was culprit!) - when Israeli athletes were murdered and the german government couldnt take action, MOSSAD tracked them down and destroyed them - THAT is spine
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Re: The US and China in Pakistan - their respective roles

Post by shiv »

Pakistan gets two P3C aircraft from US
ISLAMABAD: The Pakistani navy took delivery Tuesday of two state-of-the-art, US-made surveillance aircraft nine months after militants destroyed two similar planes, officials said.
<snip>
Pakistan is to receive six P3C aircraft from the United States in three batches. The first two, received in 2010, were destroyed during a 17-hour siege of a key naval base in Karachi last May blamed on the Taliban.

The attack killed 10 personnel and deeply embarrassed the military, just three weeks after bin Laden was killed in the garrison town of Abbottabad. (AFP)
Pah!
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Re: The US and China in Pakistan - their respective roles

Post by Altair »

Shonu wrote: Extremely unlikely, Those in power lack the spine to make a huge call like that. Such a decision needs to be based in doctrine and has to be shown in other matters when dealing with Pak (be it geopolitical, economic or military). You can't be soft when 10men go on a rampage in the economic capital and believe the same government will show spine if a nuke goes off in Mumbai. (psychologically) It doesn't work that way. Added to that our government has never shown spine when it comes to bringing to justice those who hurt us (including those involved in the Bhopal tragedy, where INC itself was culprit!) - when Israeli athletes were murdered and the german government couldnt take action, MOSSAD tracked them down and destroyed them - THAT is spine
Many on this forum would reluctantly agree with you. In fact I may agree with you on some bad days. But, I must also point out that end of the day we have some pretty solid results.
Nuke deal with US got no where,
We are buying fuel from Iran despite almighty objections from US.
We bought French fighters, can you imagine! I mean WTF! Americans are just grinding their teeth.
Talks with Pakis got no where. We are where we want to be.

All the talk but no walk, and in reality we showed US a big finger. 10 years of engagement with us and US got zilch from India.

Just calculate how much India spend on defense since 2001 and see how much US gained in those massive deals. If it is not a finger I dont know what is!
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Re: The US and China in Pakistan - their respective roles

Post by VikramS »

OTOH What has the US lost?
It has successfully preserved the TSPA and armed it to a point where the qualitative edge the Indian Forces enjoyed has blunted.
It still got to sell C130s, C17s and P8s to India.
India is no closer to the UNSC seat.
US based EJs are stronger than ever, exerting their influence in India's internal matter like the nuke plant protests.

It has been a zero sum engagement. India has gained little, as has the US. It is the same old; nothing new.
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Re: The US and China in Pakistan - their respective roles

Post by ramana »

To add to VikramS, they might even have jacked up the price of goods sold to India to cover the cost of supplies to TSP. Its not a coincidence that the P-3C Onions are being gifted and India paid for the P-8 and numerous sundry planes.

Any Indian purchase from US has the suspicion of subsidizing their AIDS to TSP.
Especially in these 'hard' economic times.
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Re: The US and China in Pakistan - their respective roles

Post by hnair »

shiv wrote:A beautifully expressed passage. I need to learn to express myself like that
How the West Lost Us
Fun article reminiscent of a certain kindergartner.

In retrospect, that particular article by Shree Juluri brings into perspective, the central role of khan's own agent Headley and a need for deflection of attention away from their culpability. All the usual suspects like Fair, Nussbaum et al did their job. But then I might be wrong, because in khanland, apparently they have "free speech" when they want to and gubmint has no control over dour dames looking for grants/tenures etc.
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Re: The US and China in Pakistan - their respective roles

Post by nvishal »

What don't you understand about the concept of an "ally"? Pakistan is US's ally. Wrt china, pakistan is it's strategic ally; china and pak have a relationship that US can never get from pakistan.

Expect an arms transfer to pakistan(from US and china) to account for india's rafale purchase.

You have to appreciate panditlal nehru's vision; is was definitely long term. Had he not, india would have just become another subordinate aka spectator nation in world geopolitics of 21st century(this era).

There is an intolerable cost for the N5 in the long term. Plus a nuclear shia state will add a whole another dimension and alter the great game from the beginning. All india has to do is keep neutral and avoid exhausting itself by reacting to proxy/low intensity attacks.
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Re: The US and China in Pakistan - their respective roles

Post by JohnTitor »

nvishal wrote:What don't you understand about the concept of an "ally"? Pakistan is US's ally. Wrt china, pakistan is it's strategic ally; china and pak have a relationship that US can never get from pakistan.
There is no concept of "ally" in geopolitics. The word is a gentleman's term for ***** (apologies for the term). Take US-UK, UK does what the US says when the US says. Both countries speak of a "special relationship", where did this relationship go when it came to giving the UK codes for the F35? As long as a country does things that are in your interest, they are your ally, thats how geopolitics works. The minute Pak starts fighting back against the US, MNNA will go out the door. Both the US and China are using Pak for their own benefit, in the case of China it is to help hold India down, while in the case of US, it is to help control central asia (not really against India) - you see, Central Asia is where the game is being played, for oil, gas etc.. The key is Afghanistan, but Afghanistan can't be controlled directly, hence they need to feed Pak.
nvishal wrote:You have to appreciate panditlal nehru's vision; is was definitely long term. Had he not, india would have just become another subordinate aka spectator nation in world geopolitics of 21st century(this era).
As for the above.. I don't know whether to laugh or cry. I'm sorry.. but vision?? what vision?? He was gullible and naive! He thought the world was all kiss-kiss-hug-hug (most politicos at the time were the same... today, its slightly better but the same thinking exists - hence the lack of strategic long term goals and going to the UN every time something happens when something goes wrong) - Dont get me wrong, the UN has its purpose, but when it fails, India lacks the will power to do something about it. He donated the UNSC seat that was handed to us on a platter to a china, which stabbed us in the back a decade later! Lets also not forget his "hindi-chini bhai bhai" campaign which made us look like idiots! During the war with china, the man didn't even know what to do, he went and begged the US for help.. TWICE!

Remember the time when MPs discussed how can we get back land that was grabbed by China and Nehru responded by saying "the land that was lost wasn't fertile, so its not worth much" (after which he was rebuffed when he was told that there was no hair on his head, so maybe it should be chopped off too).

Let us not be blinded and forget the betrayal these people have done to our country. Its one thing to be patriotic, but it is foolish to ignore all the mistakes that have been done and not learn from them.
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Re: The US and China in Pakistan - their respective roles

Post by Ravi Karumanchiri »

X-POSTED NOTICE RE: STRATFOR “Strategic Forecasting” // “Global Intelligence”

Rakshaks,

I’m not sure how much “play” this story got – I’ve had my head down for a few weeks now – but perhaps this event provides an opportunity you’ll want to avail yourself of:

It recently made the news that one of America’s “thought-leader” think tanks “STRATFOR” was badly hacked, probably by the Chinese, and a list of all their subscribers was revealed, including a virtual “who’s who” in the US Government’s Departments of State and Defense. Indeed, STRATFOR stuff has been required reading for this lot since forever.

Well, in response to this enormous security breach, STRATFOR has removed the (completely compromised) password/login rigmarole and is now offering all of its web content for free.

Go to http://www.stratfor.com/ where the top line reads “Temporarily offering all content for free”. The “Geopolitical Diary” and “Analysis” sections are particularly interesting.

There are literally hundreds of articles on all sorts of (security/defense/geopolitical) topics, many of which will greatly interest Rakshaks.

Certainly, it is interesting to read what those folks are reading – it provides a window on their world, which after all, we all share.

Enjoy!
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Re: The US and China in Pakistan - their respective roles

Post by ramana »

X-post....
Indian Air Force in Wars:Jasjit Singh


Pakistan, after its first test of a nuclear device at Lop Nor with Chinese assistance in 1983, planned to take over Siachen Glacier and adjoining areas up to the Karakoram Pass (not to be confused with the Chinese built highway of the same name far to the west in Gilgit region of Kashmir).22 The Indian Army, in a pre-emptive move in early 1984 was able to just occupy the high crest marking the watershed before the Pakistan army could get to it the same day.

22 On the first anniversary of its nuclear tests, Dr Samar Mubarakmand (in charge of building the bomb) publicly stated that Pakistan had tested a nuclear device in 1983; see Gulf Today, 31 May, 1999.
Hope all those who want to make Siachen a ski park realize how narrow the margins were.
And hope WKKs shut up on Siachen.

No wonder the Pakis feel the hurt of Siachen more than anything else.

They couldn't use their nuke maal.
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Re: The US and China in Pakistan - their respective roles

Post by shiv »

From my archives
http://www.dawn.com/2002/08/26/ebr6.htm
The other day while addressing a press conference, President General Pervez Musharraf described the 11-year rule of Field Marshal Ayub Khan (1958-1969) as a 'golden period' in the history of Pakistan, as according to him, the development of that era remains unmatched to date.

He said: " Ayub's 11-years in government laid the foundations of prosperity and development of the country. Recounting Ayub's achievements, the President said, the country was industrialized, dams were built, eco-revolution was brought about, and a positive image of the country was brought about in the world. " Whatever we have today is what Ayub did, " he said.

Yes, whatever we have today, the politico-economic mess including, is what Ayub did. The economic blunders of the Ayub era were recounted briefly in the last article of the writer which appeared in this section (The truth about lost decade and high forex reserves-Aug 12-18, 2002). Perhaps the President's advisors on economy did not have the time or inclination to go through this article, otherwise they would not have advised Musharraf to make such misleading comments on the Ayub era.

The fact is, it was the era of dole not gold. It was the era during which we became addicted to foreign aid and destroyed our agriculture and also allowed our pretentious security needs to dictate our economic policies rather than making policies aimed at reducing our dependence on dole.

Here are some details of the era. US economic aid to Pakistan in the shape of technical assistance and PL480 had begun in 1952. But a strategic meaning to this relationship was accorded by the Mutual Defence Agreement signed between the two countries in 1954. This opened the way for large-scale military and economic assistance. During the first three years, (1955-58), economic assistance had totalled $500 million or 2.8 per cent of GDP. The real value of the US military assistance in the late 1950s probably approached that of the economic assistance, which greatly relieved the pressure on Pakistan's own fiscal resources.

The nominal value of this assistance was around $100 million annually for ten years at a stretch, but this definitely understates the real value of this assistance because the prices at which the military equipment was transferred were deliberately kept low. The military assistance had the effect of increasing the effective defence budget by at least 50 per cent in the second half of 1950s. The defence spending in that period was in real terms significantly below the level of the first half. By the late 1950s, defence spending had been reduced to about 25 per cent of the total central government expenditure, thanks largely to the US military assistance.

In the second half of the 1950s, the bulk of imports of food grains were financed by the concessional PL480 assistance from the United States. This reduced the urgency of increasing domestic food grain production and compounded the neglect of agriculture. And it was between 1958 and 1965 that the country experienced what in the words of USAID were, its 'takeoff" years but which actually was the time when Pakistan truly became addicted to external aid. A USAID document making an assessment of these years had tried to explain this away in this manner:

"The size of the programme, its administrative instability, the paucity of US knowledge about Pakistan and about the role of foreign aid in development, the equivocating and uncertain commitment within the US to foreign aid programme, in combination with political instability and the lack of an orderly approach to development within Pakistan, all worked to minimize the effectiveness of aid utilization."

The economic advisors of President Musharraf should read this document (available at the United States Information Centre) from cover to cover in order to understand the fiction of Ayub's so-called golden era.

Most of the military equipment, which Pakistan received during the decade of 1960s, was almost free. One whole armoured division was raised during this period when Pakistan received a huge quantity of second world war vintage Patton tanks. During the same period the country also received a number of squadrons of F-86s.
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Re: The US and China in Pakistan - their respective roles

Post by ramana »

Pattons were not WWII vintage. So one more lie.
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Re: The US and China in Pakistan - their respective roles

Post by ramana »

China joins top five arms exporter

Mainly on basis of arms sold/gifted to TSP!!!
China has ousted the UK as the world’s fifth-largest arms exporter, mainly because of sales to Pakistan, according to a new report on global weapons sales.

....

High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Email [email protected] to buy additional rights. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c7215936-8f64 ... z2Nu3CNttv


Pakistan accounted for 55 per cent of Chinese arms exports between 2008 and 2012, according to Sipri. During that time, China’s share of global arms exports rose to 5 per cent from 2 per cent in the 2003-2007 period, boosting the country from eighth to fifth place in the global ranking.
...
ignored a lot of rhetoric on India in the article.
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Re: The US and China in Pakistan - their respective roles

Post by ramana »

X-post...
Peregrine wrote:
"BijuShet"

From "The News" article (posting in full). Another pearl in the Chinese string circling India.
China assumes charge of Gwadar Port

May 23, 2013 - Updated 1535 PKT
From Web Edition

ISLAMABAD: China has formally assumed charge of Pakistan’s deep-water Gwadar Port following an agreement signed between the two countries in February this year.

Three companies including China Port Holding, China Merchant and Cosco Shipping would be responsible for the handling of Gwadar port.

Beijing would help Islamabad construct a road, which would link the port with the Coastal High Way. Beside this, China would also provide financial add to complete the project.
---------------------------
BijuShet Ji :

The viability of the Port of Gwadar can be "judged" by the following Roads being constructed by China especially the Makran Coastal Highway :

Image

Mods : Should "Gwadar" be discussed on this Thread or would you like to "Create" a New "Nukkad" Thread for Gwadar?

Cheers Image
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Re: The US and China in Pakistan - their respective roles

Post by ramana »

X-post that belongs here.....
vipins wrote:‘China might have provided Pakistan with nuclear weapons designs’
Washington, April 24:

China might have provided its close ally Pakistan a fairly comprehensive package of proven nuclear weapons design in late 1970s and the CIA (Central Intelligence Agency) knew about it, according to a recently declassified document.

“The CIA had evidence suggesting close Pakistan-China nuclear cooperation, to the point of facilitating a nuclear weapons capability, although the intelligence community saw this as possibly a special case based on an alliance that had existed since 1963,” according to recently declassified CIA data, obtained by the National Security Archive (NSA) under the Freedom of Information Act.

According to the document, this allegation has come up before, for example in a State Department document and in major news stories, but this is the first time the CIA has released some of its own information.

“The estimate highlights some of the main developments, including ‘verbal consent (in 1974) to help Pakistan develop a nuclear blast capability’, ‘hedged and conditional commitment’ in 1976 to provide nuclear weapons technology, and unspecified excised information that raised the possibility that China has provided a fairly comprehensive package of proven nuclear weapon design information,” it said.

“Even without Chinese help, the Pakistanis could develop a nuclear weapon, but access to Chinese weapons design and test data might be crucial in establishing Islamabad’s confidence in an untested weapons capability,” said a 1983 national intelligence estimate of the CIA, which is heavily excised.

The exchanges may not have been one-way and the reference to Chinese “involvement” in Pakistan’s uranium enrichment programme probably refers to gas centrifuge technology, which Pakistan shared with China, it noted.

Significant portions of the document covering technology sharing are excised, but more may be learned if additional details are released under appeal, the NSA added.

The real story will be when they reveal the origins of the Chinese designs and why does TSP need US parts for Chinese designed nukes?

Parts substitution in such ciritcal projects is not a joke.
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Re: The US and China in Pakistan - their respective roles

Post by paramu »

ramana wrote:
China might have provided its close ally Pakistan a fairly comprehensive package of proven nuclear weapons design in late 1970s and the CIA (Central Intelligence Agency) knew about it, according to a recently declassified document.

“The CIA had evidence suggesting close Pakistan-China nuclear cooperation, to the point of facilitating a nuclear weapons capability, although the intelligence community saw this as possibly a special case based on an alliance that had existed since 1963,” according to recently declassified CIA data, obtained by the National Security Archive (NSA) under the Freedom of Information Act.

“The estimate highlights some of the main developments, including ‘verbal consent (in 1974) to help Pakistan develop a nuclear blast capability’, ‘hedged and conditional commitment’ in 1976 to provide nuclear weapons technology, and unspecified excised information that raised the possibility that China has provided a fairly comprehensive package of proven nuclear weapon design information,” it said.


The real story will be when they reveal the origins of the Chinese designs and why does TSP need US parts for Chinese designed nukes?

Parts substitution in such ciritcal projects is not a joke.
Can I answer this

It is because the Chinese designs have come from Uncle and it needs parts from uncle.
China was given to deter Soviet Union in those decades but this is being used for further proliferation

Do countries give verbal consent to such critical mission? This is total fraud and this is really about a list of countries who colluded to give Pak this capability to go against India and IG
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Re: The US and China in Pakistan - their respective roles

Post by ramana »

X-post....
via @shashj

http://www.amazon.com/The-Blood-Telegra ... 0307700208


The Blood Telegram: Nixon, Kissinger, and a Forgotten Genocide
Gary J. Bass (Author)
Book Description
Release date: September 24, 2013
A riveting history--the first full account--of the involvement of Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger in the 1971 atrocities in Bangladesh that led to war between India and Pakistan, shaped the fate of Asia, and left in its wake a host of major strategic consequences for the world today.

Drawing on recently declassified documents, unheard White House tapes, and investigative reporting, Gary Bass gives us an unprecedented chronicle of a crucial but little-known chapter of the Cold War. He shows how Nixon and Kissinger supported Pakistan's military dictatorship as it brutally quashed the results of a historic free election. The Pakistani army launched a crackdown on what was then East Pakistan (today an independent Bangladesh), killing hundreds of thousands of people, and sending ten million refugees fleeing into India--one of the worst humanitarian crises of the twentieth century. It soon sparked a major war. But Nixon and Kissinger remained untroubled by Pakistan's massacres, secretly encouraged China to mass troops on the Indian border, and illegally supplied weapons to the Pakistani military--an unknown scandal that presages Watergate. And Bass makes clear how the United States's embrace of the military dictatorship in Islamabad would affect geopolitics for decades. A revelatory, compulsively readable work of essential recent history.
Author
http://www.princeton.edu/politics/peopl ... isplay=All
Gary Bass
Title: Professor of Politics and International Affairs, Woodrow Wilson School.
Bass is the author of Freedom's Battle: The Origins of Humanitarian Intervention (Knopf) and Stay the Hand of Vengeance: The Politics of War Crimes Tribunals (Princeton University Press). He is currently writing a book about America, India, and the Bangladesh massacres and war.
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Re: The US and China in Pakistan - their respective roles

Post by ramana »

Rudradev wrote:
SSridhar wrote:CRS, I really appreciate you for that letter you have sent. If the Professor comes to know about your post, he may break off. Your dialogue with him would be valuable.

'Facing India with dignity' or 'We should not allow India to over run Pakistan' have been standard refrains from the US and the UK.
CRamS, I too commend your untiring efforts at writing to people like Uneven and Unfair... even if I remain skeptical about the potential consequences.

Meanwhile, SSridhar and CRamS: shouldn't we recognize all the diplomatic piffle about "Facing India with Dignity" for the sheer nonsense it is? Even the idea that State Dept or DOD "babus" are somehow emotionally invested in arming Pakistan as a "counterweight to India" sounds dubious to me. Yes, they may offer these sorts of excuses, but I can't help thinking that the primary motivation of the US is entirely economic. One major clue to this lies in Sirohi's article itself:

http://www.firstpost.com/world/why-is-u ... 42879.html

Pakistan military’s liquidity may astonish some, given that the country’s economy is in dire straits and is constantly mortgaged to the IMF. So how did they do it? Well, it was rather elementary. The US has transferred humongous amounts of money to Pakistan since 2002 leaving enormous scope for fiddling the books.

The gravy train is called the Coalition Support Funds (CSF), which is actually meant to “reimburse” Pakistan for its “operational and logistical” support to US troops. On this train came $10.7 billion as of June this year.

Call it the great train robbery – the money was paid against actual (overinflated) invoices with little oversight. Most of this money likely came back to the US in the form of “Pakistani national funds” to buy the advanced weapons. These couldn’t be funded through US government programs because they were so blatantly inappropriate for fighting terrorists that even the most expanded American definition of “counterterrorism” couldn’t justify them.

The18 new F-16C/D Block 52 aircraft with advanced avionics valued at $1.43 billion and already delivered probably came from this liquidity.
The US government is not like the Indian misgovernment.

The US government takes every step necessary to shore up its economic recovery. A big part of that recovery depends on large-scale job creation. To create jobs you need your industries to be flush with orders. The arms manufacturing industry is the biggest of all US export sectors; so it's very obvious what has happened here and why.

The Coalition Support Funds -- Pakistani National Funds route is nothing but a hawala network for the US government to feed its OWN industry without any supporters of laissez faire crying foul. Likewise, every military item the US has given the Pakis as part of its $20B aid package allows a large fraction of that aid money to be funneled back into its OWN industry. QED.

We can cry foul about the US' "hypocrisy" all we want (some of us actually still accuse the US of "stupidity" in not seeing what an evil and duplicitous ally Pakistan is.) In fact, there is no stupidity whatsoever, and while there is plenty of hypocrisy in the US position, merely pointing out something so obvious will not do us a bit of good. In the end the US is prioritizing its own economic interests over India's security interests, and we would be foolish to expect otherwise, no matter what sorts of words or phrases are used by Washington in its justifications.

I say again, there is limited (if any) utility in highlighting these sorts of justifications offered by State Dept and DOD for the continued arming of Pakistan. The only answer is to pursue our own economic growth vigorously, and develop or purchase our own defense hardware... until perhaps, some day, we grow to the extent where we can actually use our economic clout itself to forestall the US arming of Pakistan.

Right now we're at the opposite end of the scale. While growth implodes, and the rupee (along with every marker of fiscal confidence) nosedives to unplumbed depths, EVERYBODY thinks they can get in a kick at us without any fear of repercussion. Forget China and Pakistan; Iran is happily impounding one of our oil tankers. Forget Italian marines; even Sri Lankan navy personnel routinely massacre our fishermen in the Palk Strait. Forget Bangladesh and Nepal; even the tiny Maldives and Bhutan have indicated that they're not interested in blindly toeing New Delhi's policy directives any longer. And, even when Muslims are allegedly persecuted in Thailand, Burma and Sri Lanka... in which country do the Jihadis feel safest about striking back with "retaliatory" terrorist attacks?

Under the Manmohan-Maino regime, we are universally despised, mocked and spat upon.

In this situation, trying to engage US scholars or policymakers about the "hypocrisy" of their attitudes is only good for another global laugh at our expense... reminscent of the speeches Krishna Menon used to make at the UN while we relied on Western food aid to prevent our citizens from starving.
Karan M wrote:Rudradev, its not just economic shoring up of domestic industry. Let me explain..

Please look at the specific weapons sold/donated to Pakistan. TOW2A - specifically anti-ERA versions when there was much talk of Cold Start and India importing T-90s en masse (its a different matter that these may not work that well...lets leave that out for now). The Harpoons - again with P3Cs et al, which had no role versus the Taliban. Similarly, the F-16s came with AMRAAMs and specific PGMs, some of which were clearly meant for counter-air strikes against Indian AFB. Basically, they were targeted specifically at Indian interests.

Point is these systems were selectively chosen and then released to Pak, and attempting to blunt the Indian response and also prevent US tech from going off to the PRC (the dance around is pretty obvious - the PRC has mastered Active RF BVR missiles, so AMRAAMs to Pak were ok, and would go with safeguards and checks) BUT AIM-9X (which uses a fancy new seeker ) which PRC has no equivalent to - was not. Similarly, the F-16Cs sold to TSPAF are all Block-50/52, judged to be a pain to India, but 1Gen behind what Khan is making for itself. Its another matter that these F-16s now are of limited use 1 to 1 vs the Su fleet we have. But by giving them a robust A2G platform, the US basically gave them a face saving means to hurt India in turn.
Also, in recent news, Pak finally got DRFM equipped EW pods for its Vipers. These may or may not work against Indian AD, but basically, it will embolden Pak to use some of its Vipers for the N role as well.

Last but not least, the $10B they got as CSF, is what allowed Pak to purchase 3 Erieyes (2 reportedly banged up by bad Taliban, oops), 3 PRC AEW&C, some 500 Al Khalids, 3 Agostas, and umpteen NVG/Arty/comms upgrades plus fund the initial odd 3 squadrons of JF-17.

Basically, the US funded the rearmament of the Pak Mil.
Plus, there is now news that Pak ramped up its n-program as well.

Again, this is thanks to the above largesse. $10 Bn goes a long way.

Now why is highlighting these issues material. I would argue, that CRamS is doing a yeoman job. A) It tells how hypocritical the Khan is each time their flunkeys like Cohen tut tut us and talk peace and ask us not to escalate things - as you correctly point out but also B ) By constantly signaling this and tying this to Indian purchases (or lack thereof) of US gear, we may actually influence transfers to (or reduce them) to TSP if US conglomerates realize that these free donations hurt their prospects to India.

However, instead of any hard nosed deals, we appear to have opened up to purchase anything and everything American, to salvage the N deal (our great PMs fondest baby).

I agree with you saar, that if India grows strong, we can overcome the above. And totally agree with everything else you have said - a weak GOI has made India a target for anyone and everyone.
SSridhar wrote:As I see it, dark clouds are gathering for India. This is India's own making by being soft on Pakistan over the last six decades.

The American calculation here is different perhaps. India was flying the NAM flag until the 1962 debacle shook her up and Nehru went running to the US. The recent cooling down in the India-US relationship in spite of the subservient incumbent government is not to the liking of the US. All said and done, India is not gifting away Kashmir to Pakistan. India is unable to open up the economy freely for the US companies. The US also wants India under a tight leash until 2014 or early 2015. Possibly always even thereafter. The US may therefore feel that only an incident similar to 1962 will push India firmly into its lap. It may therefore not be averse to encouraging these two nations (as it did in c. 1971 with China) for some adventure against us.

Both China and Pakistan have a different reason, perhaps. They have decided to jointly coerce India for their respective and mutual benefits. They may see a small window of opportunity before 2014. It was as a prelude to that the Chinese was possibly gifted away GB and Gwadar. The Chinese intrusions in Ladaakh are ominous from that point of view. I see two possibilities here. Either the Chinese and Pakistani forces would join together in an attack on Ladakh. Or, the Ladakh incursions are diversionary tactics for the Chinese to strike either in the middle sector or in Arunachal. The extraordinary hurry with which China wanted India to sign the BDCA with it (we do not know what provisions that GoI is agreeing to) is a pointer, IMHO.
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Re: The US and China in Pakistan - their respective roles

Post by ramana »

x-post...
Rudradev wrote:
Karan M wrote:Rudradev, its not just economic shoring up of domestic industry. Let me explain..

Please look at the specific weapons sold/donated to Pakistan. TOW2A - specifically anti-ERA versions when there was much talk of Cold Start and India importing T-90s en masse (its a different matter that these may not work that well...lets leave that out for now). The Harpoons - again with P3Cs et al, which had no role versus the Taliban. Similarly, the F-16s came with AMRAAMs and specific PGMs, some of which were clearly meant for counter-air strikes against Indian AFB. Basically, they were targeted specifically at Indian interests.

Point is these systems were selectively chosen and then released to Pak, and attempting to blunt the Indian response and also prevent US tech from going off to the PRC (the dance around is pretty obvious - the PRC has mastered Active RF BVR missiles, so AMRAAMs to Pak were ok, and would go with safeguards and checks) BUT AIM-9X (which uses a fancy new seeker ) which PRC has no equivalent to - was not. Similarly, the F-16Cs sold to TSPAF are all Block-50/52, judged to be a pain to India, but 1Gen behind what Khan is making for itself. Its another matter that these F-16s now are of limited use 1 to 1 vs the Su fleet we have. But by giving them a robust A2G platform, the US basically gave them a face saving means to hurt India in turn.
Also, in recent news, Pak finally got DRFM equipped EW pods for its Vipers. These may or may not work against Indian AD, but basically, it will embolden Pak to use some of its Vipers for the N role as well.

Last but not least, the $10B they got as CSF, is what allowed Pak to purchase 3 Erieyes (2 reportedly banged up by bad Taliban, oops), 3 PRC AEW&C, some 500 Al Khalids, 3 Agostas, and umpteen NVG/Arty/comms upgrades plus fund the initial odd 3 squadrons of JF-17.

Basically, the US funded the rearmament of the Pak Mil.
Plus, there is now news that Pak ramped up its n-program as well.
.
Karan,

You have provided an important insight regarding the fine calibration of tech level of the items delivered by the US to Pakistan... it is interesting that they are good enough to hurt India significantly, but not quite good enough to threaten US interests if they should fall into PRC's hands.

That said, the broader point here: i.e., that the US is supplying Pakistan with military equipment in a manner that completely disregards Indian interests, is something that we've all known on BRF for a long time. And of course, this is perfectly well understood by the likes of Uneven, Unfair, and all the SD/DOD types who talk about "helping Pakistan face India with dignity" as well.

Also, I don't think your observations invalidate my contention that the primary motivation for the US to supply this equipment to Pakistan (besides not giving a rat's arse for Indian interests) is still economical. How much profit could the US arms industry make by selling NVGs, body armour, small arms and other legitimately anti-terrorist type stuff to the Pakis? No, the profit resides in shipping huge numbers of AMRAAMs, Harpoons et al.

Anyway. Far be it from me to disparage any efforts my friend CRamS is making; however, I remain skeptical of the results, if only because I myself have been part of such group efforts to engage various "thought leaders" in the US since my pre-9/11 grad school days. In fact, one such group went back and forth with Uneven quite a bit.

The group soon came to believe that Uneven (a) doesn't have an intellectually honest bone in his body, and is therefore completely immune to being "shamed" by the kind of thing CRamS is calling him out on; (b) was engaging with us because he thought we were rich desis who would give him money to advocate Indian interests in Washington circles. Seriously. This was during the NDA regime when it looked like the sky was the limit for the Indian economy, and loads of Indian IT-vity types were really making a killing in the US... so all of a sudden, we had become lucrative potential clients. The obvious inference was that all the way up to then, Uneven had been advocating the Pakistani interest (disguised beneath a garb of equal-equal) because he had been getting money from THEM. Maybe he still is.

Fortunately no Indian PAC decided to invest in Uneven as an advocate/covert-lobbyist/whatever; and it turns out we were right, because in fact Uneven doesn't have any influence in DC policymaking circles at all. He has a good PR sensibility and media presence that makes him appear to be a "well-regarded expert on South Asia"... but this appearance is, in fact, only bought into by Indians and Pakistanis. I have it from the horse's mouth about how much influence he really has in the SD... see this post I made a couple of years ago.

http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 4#p1097324
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Re: The US and China in Pakistan - their respective roles

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RD, Just after US halted 'sales' of Abrahms tanks to Egypt due to the crackdown on Muslim Brotherhood, the mfg of of the tanks General Dynamics came on CBS radio this morning and complained baout jobs being lost....
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Re: The US and China in Pakistan - their respective roles

Post by ramana »

X-post....
SSridhar wrote:
anupmisra wrote:
---------------------
quote="ramana"
anup, I really don't know. Most likely it will be easier for India to make up with PRC than TSP which is fed steroids by scalawags like Cohen.
-------------------

Ramana, I agree with you here. That feeding time is over as far as Cohen is concerned. Besides, PRC is a "better" regional partner than the pakis for India. And I am not just talking trade. If and when PRC sees an end to the so-called benefits the pakis provide them, then its sayonara, baby (don't call me). That day is not far off when the pakis start to become more of a liability than the asset they claim to be.
I think we must begin to look at China & Pak as one entity as Pak is getting integrated into China. The rate of assimilation will only grow faster after c. 2014 and more so after the Gwadar-Kashgar link opens up.

Rhetorically speaking, it may be easier to make up with China, but it is practically impossible. Cohen is carrying his nation's agenda which wants us to settle Pakistan's 'enduring hostility' with us on Pakistan's terms so that the US once again dreams of reaching the 1950s levels of relationship with Pakistan. Hence he is suggesting to us that settling issues with Pakistan is easier than with China. It is easy to guess who the Indian politician was who he claims was so perceptive. It has to be a person who is carrying the incumbent ruling elite's agenda of 'uninterrupted and uninterruptible' peace talks. So, it appears that the two representatives of the respective governments have already agreed on the way forward.

The Pakistanis, OTOH, are playing their usual double game. If they acted as a bridge between the US and PRC in 1971, they are playing a different game today between the same two countries. The US needs many partners for its agenda in Asia which is part of its larger goal of resurrecting its rapidly waning hegemon status and keep in check the rapidly rising status of the wannabe hegemon. It wants to buy India very cheaply and India does not seem to understand its own clout. The US has been successfully equating India and Pakistan through its emissaries like Cohen even while claiming it has de-hyphenated it. Whether India likes it or not, India is looked up to by all Asian countries that have disputes with China or are justifiably fearful of it. Look at the strategic partnerships that have developed between India and other countries such as South Korea, Japan, Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam, Afghanistan among others within the last two decades. We have defence agreements and conduct joint military exercises with all these countries apart from Mongolia, Indonesia, Myanmar. Even Saudi Arabia has developed a deference for us from the strident noises it used to make in the 1990s in OIC sessions. India has been, and rightly so, frequently compared to Hanuman and the disappointment is we are still awaiting an awakening to realize our own potential.

Pakistan is not going to be satisfied with even the gift of Kashmir. China is not, at least in the near future, going to stop using Pakistan against us even as they slowly expand their frontier into Pakistan. With both China and Pakistan, irredentism alone is not the problem for India. Ideology, in the case of Pakistan, and a desire for global domination and influence, in the case of China will maintain the conflictual relationship for many decades to come. After 16 rounds of talks with China over nearly two decades, we are no closer, as China is even unwilling to exchange with us any documentation on what its perception of where the borders lay. As the Afghan denouement happens, China & Pakistan would come even closer. We do not see any strains developing in this relationship.

Even if we want to 'make up' with one or both of them, they may be unwilling to extend their hand because they believe that they have all the cards. In any case, such a move is fraught with only even more disaster for us.
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Re: The US and China in Pakistan - their respective roles

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New Ind Express:

Kashmir Fixation of Pakistan and Obama!

Kashmir fixation of Pakistan and Obama

By V Sudarshan


Published: 10th November 2013 06:00 AM
Last Updated: 10th November 2013 01:21 AM


In his book, Magnificient Delusions, a former Pakistani ambassador to the US, Husain Haqqani, has apparently divulged that four years ago, even as drones had stepped up strikes within Pakistan, President Barack Obama had offered to “nudge” India towards negotiations on Kashmir if Pakistan ended support to terrorist groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba. This assurance was contained in a secret letter dated November 11, 2009, that Obama’s then National Security Advisor Gen. (retd) James Jones personally delivered to then President Asif Ali Zardari by travelling to Islamabad. Haqqani writes that through the letter, America “even hinted at addressing Pakistan’s oft-stated desire for the settlement of the Kashmir dispute” and furthermore offered to become Pakistan’s “long-term strategic partner”. Obama declared that he was “committed to working with your government to ensure the security of the Pakistani state and to address threats to your security in a constructive way”. The US President unveiled his vision of South Asia which involved “new patterns of cooperation between and among India, Afghanistan and Pakistan to counter those who seek to create permanent tension and conflict on the subcontinent”. It appears from the reported excerpts, all Pakistan had to do was to cooperate in defeating al-Qaeda, Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, LeT, Haqqani network, Afghan Taliban and the assorted other militant groups that threaten security. Obama’s offer has to be seen against the backdrop of Pakistan constantly trying to get the US to get involved in Kashmir.

Haqqani claims Pakistan rejected the “offer”, which is hardly surprising. What is surprising is that the US President actually offered such a quid pro quo, that is, if it is true. It would be reasonable to entertain doubts on that score. First, it is not clear if the entire letter that Gen. Jones delivered to Zardari is appended at the end of the book for further clarity, but selective quoting may in fact distort the import and intent of the letter. It would be very odd indeed if the President made such an explicit connection: give up terrorism in exchange for talks on Kashmir. Pakistani diplomats are not famous for keeping things on the level. They are professional distortionists. They have been trying to get the world enmeshed in Kashmir since the very beginning but have not met with remarkable success, except from a clutch of usual suspects in the Arab world. And ever since an attempt made by a former US Assistant Secretary of State Robin Raphel to inveigle the US into the India-Pakistan-Kashmir matrix backfired, the US has not shown a willingness to try and meddle unless invited by the parties concerned. But Pakistan persists, as evidenced by the recent throwaway remarks of the new PM Nawaz Sharif, who paid insincere lip service to dialogue with India while at the same time welcoming sundry third party interventions. In fact, he is going around saying that without a third party it would not be possible to work out Kashmir bilaterally. The question to ask then is: why are we talking to Pakistan when we know that they are simply not putting their hearts into it? All we say now is stability and peace along the LoC is a pre-condition. The PM is now whining that he has been let down by Sharif after his meeting with him in the US. It would be pertinent to ask: who asked him to meet the Pakistani PM? The US?

Sudarshan is most recently author of Adrift

[email protected]
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Re: The US and China in Pakistan - their respective roles

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Husain Haqqani, "Magnificent Delusions: Pakistan, the United States, and an Epic History of Misunderstanding"
ISBN: 1610393171 | 2013 | EPUB/PDF | 432 pages |

The relationship between America and Pakistan is based on mutual incomprehension and always has been. Pakistan—to American eyes—has gone from being a quirky irrelevance, to a stabilizing friend, to an essential military ally, to a seedbed of terror. America—to Pakistani eyes—has been a guarantee of security, a coldly distant scold, an enthusiastic military enabler, and is now a threat to national security and a source of humiliation.

The countries are not merely at odds. Each believes it can play the other—with sometimes absurd, sometimes tragic, results. The conventional narrative about the war in Afghanistan, for instance, has revolved around the Soviet invasion in 1979. But President Jimmy Carter signed the first authorization to help the Pakistani-backed mujahedeen covertly on July 3—almost six months before the Soviets invaded. Americans were told, and like to believe, that what followed was Charlie Wilson’s war of Afghani liberation, with which they remain embroiled to this day. It was not. It was General Zia-ul-Haq’s vicious regional power play.

Husain Haqqani has a unique insight into Pakistan, his homeland, and America, where he was ambassador and is now a professor at Boston University. His life has mapped the relationship of the two countries and he has found himself often close to the heart of it, sometimes in very confrontational circumstances, and this has allowed him to write the story of a misbegotten diplomatic love affair, here memorably laid bare.

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Re: The US and China in Pakistan - their respective roles

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With respect to 1979 cited above, the Chinese played a huge role in the jihad as well. The Uyghur backlash of today is mostly attributable to that decision, just as it happened to Pakistan and even the US. China is once again being drafted into the denouement. China has also forced itself into the situation in a way.and IMO is possibly misleading India and Russia (through its RIC posture) while pursuing a different agenda secretly with Pakistan. What is the US position on the Chinese backdoor entry ?

PS: As Pakistan has become Af-Pak, I believe that the role of the US & China must be considered in the dynamics of Af-Pak, rather than merely Pakistan, to analyze the situation until they become Chinafpak.
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Re: The US and China in Pakistan - their respective roles

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SSridhar wrote:With respect to 1979 cited above, the Chinese played a huge role in the jihad as well. The Uyghur backlash of today is mostly attributable to that decision, just as it happened to Pakistan and even the US. China is once again being drafted into the denouement. China has also forced itself into the situation in a way.and IMO is possibly misleading India and Russia (through its RIC posture) while pursuing a different agenda secretly with Pakistan. What is the US position on the Chinese backdoor entry ?

PS: As Pakistan has become Af-Pak, I believe that the role of the US & China must be considered in the dynamics of Af-Pak, rather than merely Pakistan, to analyze the situation until they become Chinafpak.

We can do that in the GDF.

Very prophetic new term

Chinafpak.

BTW just a Buddhism went from Indo-Greco Afghanistan to China so is Islamic fundamentalism along the historic Silk route.
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Re: The US and China in Pakistan - their respective roles

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ramana wrote:BTW just a Buddhism went from Indo-Greco Afghanistan to China so is Islamic fundamentalism along the historic Silk route.
Perceptive. The plague also came to Europe along the same Silk Route.
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Re: The US and China in Pakistan - their respective roles

Post by devesh »

http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/n ... nters.html
Pakistani soldiers are trained to shout “allahu akbar” when attacking their enemies. But the enemy they face shouts “allahu akbar” much louder. The Taliban are not mentally disturbed, as our Prime Minister suggests—they believe in something. The state doesn’t. There is no real threat that the T.T.P. will take over Pakistan: there are far too many girls’ schools for them to blow up, and they face a huge military, which may fight on both sides of the war but knows that there can be no Army without a state. But in their collective hankering for one true Sharia, the leaders of Pakistan’s political and security establishment—and their American backers—have long since lost their bearings.
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Re: The US and China in Pakistan - their respective roles

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x-Post....
SSridhar wrote:For Soviet Defeat in Afghanistan, US Helped Create a Nuclear Pakistan

Nothing that we are not aware of but there is more proof now from documents released,
In July 1987, a Pakistani, Arshad Pervez, was arrested by US authorities when he was trying to bribe a Customs official to get an export license to buy high strength maraging steel — mainly used for building centrifuges to enrich uranium — and large amounts of beryllium that could be used only for Islamabad's still covert nuclear weapons programme. Around the same time, a Chinese national and two US citizens were indicted for illegal exports of advanced computers and similar technology to Pakistan.

According to newly-declassified documents by the National Security Archive, the arrest led to a huge debate within the Reagan administration. Ken Adelman, the chief of Arms Control & Disarmament Agency (ACDA), according to the documents, wanted to come down hard on Pakistan. But the State Department hesitated, unwilling to jeopardize US-Pakistan relations, particularly as General Zia-ul-Haq was supporting the Afghan mujahideen. "We are particularly concerned about weakening the President's hand in discussions with the Soviets on Afghanistan, which [are] at a critical stage."

The documents show the indictment of Pervez and Inam ul-Haq, a key figure in the A Q Khan nuclear procurement network, were important because they provided vital links to Pakistan's nuke programme. The key element in the case was the illegal effort to acquire 350 tonnes of maraging steel that would be "used in a uranium enrichment plant to manufacture nuclear weapons," and beryllium, used specifically for the neutron initiator in a nuclear weapon, the export of which was controlled in the US government's Commodity Control List.

In its report, the National Security Archive says, "For the Reagan administration, aiding the anti-Soviet war in Afghanistan trumped nonproliferation policy interests. The high priority given to a close US-Pakistan relationship may have encouraged, as some journalists have alleged, State Department officials to warn the Pakistanis of the imminent arrest of their agents. Indeed, Haq, who was working closely with Pervez, evaded arrest by slipping out of the United States at the last minute." To ensure a Soviet defeat in Afghanistan, the US watched and indirectly helped to create a nuclear weapons state in Pakistan. Adelman is on record in the new documents, protesting "Zia will conclude once again that he need do nothing about his bomb program." The Americans spent many months trying to locate Haq, who, a later telegram stated, was being moved around between locations in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK).

Another ACDA memo concluded, "there is no plausible end-use for 25 tonnes of grade 350 maraging steel other than in the manufacture of centrifuges" for producing highly-enriched uranium and "for which Pakistan has no use except in nuclear explosives." Even the indulgent State Department balked at what was happening inside Pakistan. The undersecretary Michael Armacost even travelled to Pakistan to ask Zia to control his illegal nuclear programme. Armacost is quoted as saying that US government "information" indicated that "enrichment levels above 90[percent] have been achieved at Kahuta," the site of a secret gas centrifuge facility. Pakistan was openly violating a commitment to keep to a 5% ceiling, by producing weapons-grade material.

Actually this is a bokwas story. The Paki bum never worked. Proof is the May 1998 tests. The real story is China transferred working nuke to TSP in early 1985. This was just as Reagan supplied Stingers to the Afghan jihadis. The concern was TSP would face the Russian ire and since both US and PRC could not step in and fight them for TSP they gave the bomb.
All the Xerox Khan stolen centrifuges are cover story to pretend TSP could enrich HEU et etc and thus have plausible deniability for this proliferation.
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Re: The US and China in Pakistan - their respective roles

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The US accommodation of Iran will put the Pakis in a squeeze. So expect them to rush into PRC arms. Same time KSA , Israel and the GCC will be piqued.
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Re: The US and China in Pakistan - their respective roles

Post by member_27847 »

US & Pakistan:

US has provided 'protection services' to Pakistan as an extension of 'protection services' for Saudi Arabia. This went smoothly till 'blowback' of 9/11.

Pakistan remains an 'unstable' and 'unreliable' ally of USA. The 'ally' part remains due to West's role of 'protecting' oil producing Muslim kingdoms.

China & Pakistan:

Pakistan provides useful services to China:

1. Pakistan is the largest front for containing India.
2. Pakistan provides an intermediary for Western technology.
3. Pakistan provides connections to Muslim States thus increasing China's sphere of influence.

In return China provides money and arms for infrastructure and military respectively.

The above is simple and concise way of understanding these relationships.

Indians make a serious mistake - that USA's primary concern is terrorism which obviously is false.
USA's primary concern is its over-arching and primary position in the world. Terrorism is a side show.
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Re: The US and China in Pakistan - their respective roles

Post by ramana »

Suhasini Haidar in IBN Blog on good Haqqani's book

Magnificient Delusions:Pakistan, US and epic misunderstanding

Magnificient Delusions

Author: Husain Haqqani


Published by Public Affairs, US, 2013


The letter from the US Secretary of State should have struck a chill in the recipient's hearts. Yet Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif didn't even open the envelope handed to him by the US Ambassador to Pakistan on behalf of Secy James Baker. The letter, delivered May 14, 1992 contained a direct threat, that if Pakistan didn't take "concrete steps to curtail assistance to militants and not allow their training camps to operate", the US would declare Pakistan a 'State sponsor of terrorism'. Instead, Sharif called a meeting of his army chief Gen Asif Nawaz, ISI Chief Lt Gen Javed Nasir, Foreign secretary Shahryar Khan, and special advisor Husain Haqqani, who describes it in his latest work, "Magnificent Delusions: Pakistan, The United States and an Epic History of Misunderstanding". After much discussion on the repercussions of the US threat, Haqqani says, the men came to the conclusion that while shutting down militant operations was not an option, it was necessary for Pakistan to simply "cover [it's] tracks better in the future" and for the government to allocate $2 million to reach out to the American media and US Congress. The meeting, says Haqqani, led him to offer his resignation in disgust, and to his subsequently being sent off to Colombo as Pakistan's ambassador. Within 6 months of that meeting, President Bill Clinton was elected, and all talk of designating Pakistan for its support to Kashmir and Sikh militants ended. According to Haqqani's book, that meeting and the US's unexecuted threat, form the pattern of behavior that has ruled US-Pakistani relations all the way since the creation of Pakistan.

In the book, Haqqani describes many such "forks in the road" of US-Pakistan ties: From Jinnah's disappointment that the US was unwilling to push Pakistan as its "pivot to the world" and help its cause in Kashmir and subduing "Pushtunistan, or Pakistan's repetitive warnings about India's desire to "liquidate Pakistan". Woven in are references from US archives of correspondence with Pakistani officials as well as US diplomatic cables, now declassified and painstakingly accessed by Haqqani, as well as media archives. Often, Haqqani uses pieces from the Economist and the Time Magazine juxtaposed with the Dawn, Pakistan's leading daily, to show the complete disconnect between how Islamabad (or Karachi) viewed events, and how they played out in Washington.

Another pattern Haqqani details is Pakistan's constant demand for military aid, and the US's failure to fathom why the money doesn't buy them love. In 1947 for example, Pakistan asked the US to provide $300 million for its armed forces, followed by additional requests for 500 planes, 4 cruisers, 16 destroyers, 12 gunboats and 3 submarines, and so on. Each subsequent year brought an updated laundry list from Pakistan, much to the US's chagrin. Finally in 1968, US President Lyndon Johnson writes to President Ayub Khan, who has terminated the American lease on a military intelligence base in Badaber. "The US has a contribution of more than "$3,500,000,000 in Pakistan", he reminds Ayub, with the zeros written prominently for effect. Half a century and $40 billion dollars in aid later, Pakistan is far from feeling its military needs have been addressed and the US is far from feeling the love of the Pakistani people.


Sometimes, the disconnect between the two betrays hilarious ignorance. When the US plans to induct Pakistan into the SEATO (South East Asian Treaty Organisation) in 1954, Secretary of state John Dulles is asked 'why' by legendary columnist Walter Lippman. "The only Asians who can really fight are the Pakistanis." Dulles replies, "That's why we need them in the alliance. We could never get along without the Gurkhas." What makes the faux pas more significant is Dulles was responsible for pushing the US firmly towards Pakistan as opposed India, after several crusty encounters with Indian officials, including Pandit Nehru whom Nixon described as "the least friendly leader" he had met in Asia.


While Haqqani proves an archivist of some skill, his personal experiences of the US-Pakistan relationship are the most revealing. Husain Haqqani has played "every side of the fence" in Pakistan, as they say, from being a "student leader allied to Islamists" in 1979, to a journalist in Zia's era, to Nawaz Sharif's special advisor, to Benazir Bhutto's advisor and Zardari's ambassador to the U.S. He has lived in exile outside Pakistan for much of the time he hasn't been its official representative, and the threat to his safety since the 'Memogate' scandal has only grown. In "Magnificent Delusions", his account of all the conversations he has witnessed, and the picture that emerges of Pakistan as a duplicitous and delusional entity is hardly expected to improve his ratings with the Pakistani establishment.


Throughout the book, Haqqani is sharp, factual, but also humourous when it comes to describing Pakistan's leadership. However, he does fail to point out the 'magnificent delusions' of the US with the same zeal. At the end of his book the unanswered question remains, why does the US continue on this clearly unproductive course of action vis-à-vis Pakistan? If, as Haqqani has so convincingly outlined, the US has been lied to, betrayed, disobeyed and generally disregarded, why has it continued to let billions of dollars flow down the Jhelum, and failed to make good on that "terror state" threat of 1992, even when it found its most wanted terrorist living in easy comfort in Abbottabad?


Perhaps, like Pakistan, the US too finds comfort in the patterns of behavior it has followed since the British left India, and believes in the words Jinnah used to explain to Mountbatten's chief of staff Gen Hastings Ismay why Pakistan would always need a superpower ally. "Apart from everything else," Jinnah reportedly said, "The devil you know is better than the devil you don't".

Suhasini is not letting her mind wander to find the true need for the US to support TSP despite its perfidy.

The US has declared its primary obejctive is to prevent any regional power to develop anyhwere in the world. Using deluded mental case TSP armed with PRC proveded nukes is a cheap option for furthering that objective.
devesh
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Re: The US and China in Pakistan - their respective roles

Post by devesh »

at some point, no matter how allergic we are to it, we'll have to assess the role of US political partisans and their respective roles in setting US agenda vis-a-vis India. I am talking of the two main parties. per my honest reading, the Democrats display an almost reflexive dislike of India. it has been a consistent trend over the past generation, at least. the Republicans have their own Evangelical Christian coloring (which doesn't leave the Dems untouched either), but they also have a greater component of non-Atlanticist thinking that usually allows them to keep a more open mind about India.
ramana
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Re: The US and China in Pakistan - their respective roles

Post by ramana »

Newsweek

Man who warned US Congress about Paki Nukes paid steep price

Chronicles the US duplicity.
He tried to pull the plug on Pakistan’s nuclear bomb program. His career blew up instead. Goran Tomasevic /Reuters

Richard Barlow was driving his 13-year-old motorhome through a mountain state’s blizzard the week before Thanksgiving when news broke of the Iran nuclear deal.

Bad memories flooded his mind, not that they’re ever far away. For more than 25 years, ever since he testified behind closed doors on Capitol Hill that the CIA had “scores” of “absolutely reliable” reports on Pakistan’s clandestine efforts to obtain nuclear bomb technology – technology it later gave to Iran – his life has been tumbling through one trapdoor after another.

Barlow’s testimony in 1987 shocked several panel members of the House Foreign Affairs subcommittee, in part because Army General David Einsel, assigned to the CIA as a top intelligence official, had just told the committee that – despite the recent arrest of a Pakistani caught red-handed buying prohibited nuclear materials – the evidence that Islamabad was pursuing a bomb was inconclusive. The hearing erupted in shouts when Barlow told them differently. “They went through the roof,” he recalled from the road this week. By the time he got back to CIA headquarters, “the phones were ringing off the hook.”

Top Reagan administration officials were in “a panic,” he said, because Pakistan was the crucial player in the CIA operation funneling weapons to Islamic “holy warriors” fighting the Soviet Red Army next door in Afghanistan. If it became known that Pakistan was secretly building a bomb, a law passed by Congress would require a cut-off of military aid.

Obsessed with communism, the administration made a choice: It would turn a blind eye to Pakistan’s nuclear program in order to defeat the Soviets in Afghanistan.

And that meant Barlow, 33 at the time, had to be destroyed.

“For the Cold War warriors, the only way to save the Pakistan program was to discredit the young agency analyst,” British journalists Adrian Levy and Catherine Scott-Clark wrote in their 2007 book, Deception: Pakistan, the United States and the Secret Trade in Nuclear Weapons.

And they did. His phone stopped ringing. His reports went into circular files. Barlow realized his career at the CIA had flamed out, he says, and he resigned. He moved temporarily to U.S. Customs as a special agent and then to the Pentagon, still tracking nuclear smuggling. After internally objecting to Congressional testimony by Department of Defense officials that Pakistan’s U.S.-bought F-16s were not capable of carrying nuclear weapons he was forced out and subjected to a security investigation, his marriage (to a woman who worked at the CIA) destroyed, he left town. Today, at 59, his savings nearly drained, he wanders the mountains from Montana to Arizona in his motorhome, hunting and fishing with his three dogs, haunted by the idea of what might have been. And what is.

“If they had busted those [Pakistani] networks,” he said last week, “Iran would have no nuclear program, North Korea wouldn’t have a uranium bomb, and Pakistan wouldn't have over a hundred nuclear weapons they are driving around in vans to hide from us.”

Iran had no means to advance its nuclear desires without Pakistan’s help, he said. “It would have been impossible. The Iranians lacked the technical, scientific, and engineering capabilities to develop or manufacture centrifuges or nuclear weapons on their own. They were trying, but they were getting nowhere. It made the impossible possible.”

Barlow moved to New Mexico in 1991, but he still had a few friends in the CIA’s analytical wing who valued his expertise on Pakistan. Indeed, in 1988, before his world started crumbling, he’d won a “certificate for services of extreme value to the Central Intelligence Agency,” signed by CIA Director William Webster. And in May 1990, the Pentagon’s security office declared that “any questions of your trustworthiness or access to sensitive information was resolved in a manner completely favorable to you.”

For a while he worked for the CIA “out of my house in Santa Fe.” but efforts by his allies to get him fully reinstated were blocked by higher-ups.

He reached out to the FBI’s terrorism maven, John O’Neill (who would die on 9/11 at the World Trade Center); O’Neill asked him to help the bureau set up a nuclear counter-proliferation program from the Sandia National Laboratories in Albuquerque.

For the next dozen years, the exiled Barlow helped run operations to penetrate the nuclear weapons programs of not just Pakistan, but Iran, North Korea, and others.
In 2004 a bureaucratic power struggle broke out between the FBI and Sandia, and his job was eliminated.

Numerous efforts through the years to repair the damage to Barlow have all fallen through. Inspector general investigations at the CIA and the State Department found that officials had punished Barlow unfairly. The Pentagon’s inspector general also found that the department had retaliated against Barlow (albeit just legally).

The Government Accountability Office, Congress’s investigative arm, looked into the inspector general’s handling of Barlow’s case and confirmed the retaliation against him. Although the Senate Armed Services Committee ordered the Pentagon to compensate Barlow for the harm done to him, it refused.

In response, the committee instructed Barlow’s senator, Jeff Bingaman of New Mexico, to introduce a “private bill” to recompense him. But Senator John Warner of Virginia, a former Secretary of the Navy, with the Pentagon on his home turf, objected. Ducking a confrontation with Warner, the Senate then punted Barlow’s case to the Court of Federal Claims. That proved a blind alley, however, when then-CIA director George Tenet, then-NSA director Michael Hayden and Deputy Secretary of Defense John Hamre declared that all the relevant classified information on Barlow’s case was protected by the so-called state secrets privilege.

In 2009, 22 years after he had first told truth to power about Pakistan, Barlow approached the Obama White House about his case. A plan was hatched to turn Barlow into a “poster boy” for a federal whistle-blowers protection act. That ploy fell apart, however, when it became clear that the president had no intention of signing a bill that would include protections for spy agency employees. :mrgreen:

Barlow then turned to a friend, Suzanne Spaulding, a former CIA lawyer and general counsel of the Senate Intelligence Committee. Spaulding recognized the embarrassment the public resolution of his case would cause the State and Defense departments, Barlow said, and proposed the novel idea of urging Leon Panetta, who had become CIA director in 2009, to use a little-known section of the Central Intelligence Act of 1949 that authorizes a CIA director to cut a fast check – in secret, naturally – to someone in the interest of national security. Before anything could get going, though, Spaulding was nominated to be an under-secretary of homeland security and Panetta was moved from the CIA to the Pentagon.

In any event, Barlow insisted, “I’m not a whistle-blower. I testified before a committee behind closed doors in a top-secret session with the full approval of my chain of command.”

And look what happened. He has no idea whether Edward Snowden, the former NSA contractor whose leaks have caused an international uproar, drew a lesson from his case. But he noted that “none of us can go to Congress [on our own] with anything, if it’s classified.… If you understand this, you understand what Snowden did and the way he did it. My case shows what happens to you when you do it right.”

Anybody who gets Barlow on the phone had better be prepared to talk or trade emails for hours about the nuclear black market, Pakistan’s perfidy, his many travails and, now, the nuclear deal with Iran. It’s bad, he insisted. “Iran is gaming” the West.

“The holes in the agreement are multiple. Among them, it does absolutely nothing to address Iran’s extensive nuclear weapons physics work.… In addition, as long as a country maintains an enrichment plant and stocks of enriched uranium, it is has the capability to make [highly enriched uranium]. And the agreement does not remove a single one of the thousands of centrifuges Iran has.”


Centrifuges, he must remind everyone that began with Pakistan.

Barlow could go on – and he will, for hours, late into the cold Arizona night. But for a moment, he paused, hugged one of the dogs at his feet, and laughed into the Skype camera on his laptop.

“I used to hunt Pakistanis,” he said. “Now I hunt birds.”

This story has been corrected to reflect the following: Richard Barlow won back his security clearances before the GAO looked into his case, not after. While working with the FBI out of the Sandia Labs in New Mexico, Barlow helped run operations to penetrate the nuclear weapons programs of not just Pakistan, but Iran, North Korea and others. The Senate was not "stymied" by former Sen. John Warner's objection to a "private bill" on Barlow's behalf; it chose to avoid a confrontation with him and referred his case to the U.S. Court of Federal Claims. It is the "Central Intelligence Act of 1949" that has a provision authorizing the CIA director to make discreet classified payments, not the National Security Act of 1947.


ramana
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Re: The US and China in Pakistan - their respective roles

Post by ramana »

A whole bunch of new x-posts that highlight the role of the duo and the four fathers in keeping TSP around....

1)
partha wrote:http://tribune.com.pk/story/685490/expe ... echnology/
Expert-level talks: US says talks under way on civil nuclear technology
KARACHI:

Deputy spokesperson for the American embassy Sandeep K Paul has said that expert-level talks are in progress regarding the provision of civil nuclear technology by the United States to Pakistan. However, he did not specify a time frame for the outcome of the talks.

Speaking with Express News, he said the possibility of such an agreement between the two countries cannot be dismissed. There is no issue with Pakistan regarding the agreement on the provision of nuclear reactors to Pakistan by China, he said, adding the US has some reservations over China’s refusal to implement agreements made by the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG).

Sandeep Paul said Pakistan’s relations with China are its internal issue. Pakistan can have relations with any country of the world that suits its national interest and the US has nothing to do with this, he reiterated. The US also does not have any position on Pakistan’s talks with Taliban as it is completely an internal matter, he said.
What's cooking?
2)
RKumar wrote:The thing is Saudi (über pure)-UK (chamcha)-Uncle ... bank rolled the noclear with china providing the tech. Few importants point to note are
- that beggars got more ready made masala then us.
- Uncle very close chamcha is broke, so losing its shine.
- über pure and uncle will bank roll further. Über pure are going to roll it for foreseeable future but there is a limit.
- Pure are going to break somewhere ... the more masala, quicker it will happen.
- as a padosi we will be effected so or so. Keep border and security tight to minimise the risk and lower our expose to it.
3)
SSridhar wrote:
I wrote this on May 13, 2013 here
I was surprised by the earlier Pakistan stance of supporting Morsi's ouster. Probably, Pakistan was playing some game with the US to gain some benefits. Now that, it has fallen into place with the US line, we can guess that some deal has been struck (Diamar-Basha, trade preferences, access to more IMF funds, US leaning on India, a nuclear deal - take your pick)
By the way, all of those picks are coming true. Egypt, Syria, Afghanistan and of course the constant India-factor are all contributing.
ramana
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Re: The US and China in Pakistan - their respective roles

Post by ramana »

X-posting from TSP thread....

{quote="partha"}http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/opinion/10 ... tta-s-gall
“When the Taliban took Kabul days later, the first thing they did was drag Najibullah through the streets and string him and his brother up on Ariana Square...The first ring of Taliban fighters controlling the gawping crowds were Urdu-speaking Pakistanis. Some of them dark-skinned and wearing sunglasses, Abdul Waheed Wafa, a colleague who was there, told me. The ISI’s demand had been met,” writes Carlotta Gall, virtually indicting Pakistan’s intelligence agency for the murder of the former Afghan president who had asylum at the UN compound at the time. Pakistan is clearly miffed at the New York Times correspondent Carlotta Gall’s new book, The Wrong Enemy: America in Afghanistan 2001-2004, that was just released.

Ms Gall’s account of Dr Mohammed Najibullah’s lynching, a war crime by any standard, matches what many Afghans and Pakistan’s Pashtun nationalist leaders have said all along. She also chronicles that the ISI gave orders to kill Dr Najibullah to a Taliban commander Mullah Borjan, who had travelled to Quetta before the imminent fall of Kabul in 1996. Borjan, like many other Taliban, was hesitant to carry out this particular order but confided to a Pakistani journalist that he had come from the ISI offices and that “They are insisting that the first thing we do is kill Najibullah. If I don’t, I am not sure what will happen to me.” Borjan’s Kashmiri guard killed him on his way back to Afghanistan. Someone clearly did not trust Borjan’s vacillation and had a backup plan in place to eliminate him and Dr Najibullah both.

Dr Najibullah was not the only Afghan leader that was killed. Ms Carlotta Gall, again like many Afghans, Pashtuns and analysts, has pinned the responsibility on Pakistan for commissioning a decapitation campaign against the Afghan leaders. She notes that the two Tunisians pretending to be journalists who killed the veteran anti-Taliban leader Ahmad Shah Massoud in a suicide bombing — the first ever in Afghanistan — two days before the 9/11 attacks, had been issued one-year, multiple-entry visas on forged Belgian passports by the Pakistan embassy in London. The assassins travelled from Pakistan to Kandahar to what was a high profile reception by the Taliban there. “The ISI undoubtedly knew of their trip,” Ms Gall has concluded. Ahmed Shah Massoud, like Dr Najibullah, had the appeal and national standing that stood in the way of Pakistan’s plans.

{This murder was prelude to the 9/11 attacks on New York. By covering up the ISI hand in the murders of Afghan leaders, the US got it blowback that took it down as an economic power. Vinasha kaale viparti buddhi!}

Ms Carlotta Gall traces the tragic journey of another prominent Afghan, the former mujahideen commander Abdul Haq, back into Afghanistan right after 9/11 only to be assassinated on the direct orders of the Taliban interior minister Mullah Abdul Razzaq. She notes, “His brothers blamed the CIA for pushing Haq into Afghanistan when conditions were still too dangerous. Those close to him claimed to see the hand of Pakistan in his assassination, too, since the interior minister was especially close to the ISI, and Haq was a strong charismatic leader who opposed Pakistan’s policies toward Afghanistan.” Ms Gall has accurately noted that Abdul Haq and his two associates were unarmed at the time. It may be worthwhile for her to probe into who denied arms to Abdul Haq starting in the settled areas of Pakistan, across FATA and in Afghanistan. Abdul Haq’s brother Haji Qadeer, who was a vice president under Mr Hamid Karzai, was gunned down nine months later.

The most recent victim of the decapitation spree against the Afghan leadership was Ustad Burhanuddin Rabbani, the former president of the country and the incumbent chair of the Afghan High Peace Council. Ustad Rabbani’s assassination in a suicide bombing was again blamed on the ISI, Ms Gall writes. This time around, Afghan intelligence caught the bomber’s accomplice and under interrogation he revealed that two Pakistani men in Quetta, whom he only knew as Mahmoud and Ahmed, had plotted the attack and sent him in with the suicide bomber. President Hamid Karzai himself has narrowly escaped several attempts on his life, including in his home province of Kandahar. Ms Gall is on the money that someone has clearly wanted the independent Afghan leadership eliminated or bombed into submission.

Ms Carlotta Gall makes a case, and has taken flak for it already, that Pakistan not only wanted these Afghan leaders dead but has all along harboured their killers, including Mullah Omar, Osama bin Laden and Ayman al Zawahiri. She writes that in 2005 Zawahiri crossed over from FATA into Kohat where “he negotiated to stay for one month in the governor’s home”. Her assertion that a special ISI desk handled Osama bin Laden’s sanctuary, including in Abbottabad, has already appeared in her article last month. She has a point that such operations are by design covert and planned for maximum deniability, thus precluding hard evidence of foul play, but it would have been helpful to see more supporting information in the book about both the al Qaeda leaders and Mullah Omar. It is unlikely though that she would convince any naysayer unless a directive signed in ink is produced, which obviously never happens in the murky world of clandestine wars. The onus, however, should not be on Ms Carlotta Gall to release more information but on Pakistan to officially release its own inquiry report into the raid that netted Osama bin Laden, which hopefully does not imply something more sinister than the incompetence plea Pakistan has taken. The terrorist lynchpin was found in Pakistan’s, not Carlotta Gall’s, front yard, after all.

The book is organised into 14 chapters that move in chronological order from the Taliban’s 2001 surrender through the ‘Pakistan protégés’ unleashing hell on Afghanistan courtesy the ‘suicide bomb factory’ that Pakistan’s tribal areas have become, to culminate in the people of Kandahar finally rebelling against the Taliban in 2013. Ms Gall, who has covered the region from Wakhan to Pashtunabad, Quetta, and has a Rolodex second to none, has stated at the outset, “I do not pretend to be objective in this war. I am on the side of the victims.” The account, delivered in a veteran war reporter’s flawless but unassuming language, stays true to the title drawn from the late US diplomat Richard Holbrooke’s concern that “we may be fighting a wrong enemy in the wrong country”.
The enemy, as the Afghans continue to lament, is not in the villages of Afghanistan but remains headquartered across the Durand Line in Pakistan. Why has the US failed to confront the actual threat is a question asked throughout the work. Squashing the vipers without draining the pit seems like a self-defeating exercise. Ms Gall’s conclusion, like President Karzai’s, seems to be that the US is reluctant to confront a nuclear-armed large country despite the latter’s continued backing of cross-border jihadist terrorism due to geopolitical expediency. She rightly resolves that the Afghans do not necessarily want the foreign troops but need continued assistance, training and support in both civil and military sectors if the second coming of the al Qaeda-Taliban is to be averted. Many in Pakistan are not miffed at Carlotta’s gall just for probing Zawahiri and bin Laden’s whereabouts but because she has chronicled their malicious, hegemonist behaviour pattern towards Afghanistan accurately.
With people of Afghanistan showing Taliban the middle finger in recent elections, I hope Taliban forgets Kabul and establishes an Islamic emirate in Pakistan with Peshawar or Quetta as the base. Inshallah.

Does anyone know if the author Dr Mohammad Taqi is Pashtun?{/quote}


If Carlotta Gall, a news reporter knew about ISI role in murder of Najibullah, how much did the US know and cover up for their pet monster, the TSPA and its goon squad ISI which are really contract killers for US interests? And for US lawmakers to wonder how much this contributed to their being blinded to 9/11 attack?
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