Russian / Ukranian Combat Tactics

[Deans]

This is the same map I posted earlier, updated to last night (48 hours later). You will see very little Russian progress. The Ukrainian concentrations in the North Donbass are in blue and are making no effort to avoid encirclement.

A week ago the Russians attempted to capture Slavyansk-Kramatorsk (which controls the route to Severodonetsk (the other Ukrainian group to the East). They tried to do so by thrusts to the north East and North West of Slavyansk (2 red lines). Those were stopped. Then they moved south, made a breakthrough to the West of Slavyansk (my map of 2 days ago) and came within 5 km of cutting the railway line and main highway supplying Slavyansk, east of Barvinkove (the main Ukrainian logistic hub). That was stopped too.

After that the Rusisan moved West, trying to encircle a Ukrainain group in the forest west of another Ukrainian group to the left of the map. The attempted encirclement of the forest, is a very limited objective. The original intent was to outflank the Ukrainians defending Kharkov (and now counter attacking from it) around the town of Donets. However, both thrusts North and South of Donets were halted.

The Ukrainian group around the towns of Severodonetsk-Lichansk is making no move to avoid encirclement. Unable to encircle this concentration (because the Russians have not advanced from the south at all), the Russians have managed to capture Yampil, which has cut the road to Slavyansk and can threaten Severodonetsk from the rear, if they succeed in also capturing Sversk.

All the Russian thrusts are being made by BTGs. They seem to be breaking through but don't have the strength to exploit. The result on a map, looks like multiple thrusts in different directions, which no group being able to support the other.

[ks_sachin]

Worthwhile watch for us armchair tacticians and strategists. Applies not just to this but a number of other threads.

[Deans]

A note on how Russia is managing domestic public opinion - getting to be as important as fighting a real war.

Russia is not bothered about what foreigners think (especially the West). Foreign sources are mentioned if it is a known name that has something nice to say about Russia, or negative about the West. There is a Chinese reporter (on the front line) who gets featured on Russian TV, as he shows
the RA positively.

Russian channels don't contradict the MOD's official line, or have panel discussions of retired Faujis / liberal journos criticizing the current strategy. They have embedded reporters with the army, who look like they are ex Army and get a lot closer to the fighting than western reporters. When they show scenes of live and close-up urban combat, you get the impression the Russian soldiers are tough and know what they are doing, not conscripts.
There are shots of SU-25s flying in low to being attack runs, Arty and missiles being fired (Russia does not seem to be running out) destroyed targets and infantry combat in the forest or villages.

All the imagery on TV is similar to WW2. Russia is fighting Nazi's armed by NATO, that is determined to crush them. The enemy are Nazis / Bandara-ites/ NATO special forces etc. A Ukrainian town mayor is always called Gauleiter (hated WW2 term). Lot of coverage of liberated villages (always a old WW2 Red army flag symbolically hoisted with the Russian flag), desecration of WW2 memorials by the retreating enemy, Nazi memorabilia & tattoos on POWs etc. More coverage of Russian school children sending letters to the front, liberated civilians saying how terrible the Nazi occupiers were etc. Some human interest stories are being shown - starving children being fed, rubble being cleared, kid reunited with her cat etc.

Russians have apparently hacked into the Ukrainian army database and published a list of 700 foreign mercenaries fighting in Ukraine.
Good bit of coverage on shot down drones, abandoned tanks, captured western weapons etc.

[Pratyush]

X posting from the missiles thread.

- Operational strategy and tactics have to be very closely aligned to the overall strategic aim of the government (the armed forces are an instrument of state policy). In Ukraine, there seems to be a disconnect.

---Most importantly be very clear in objectives and use overwhelming force. Half arsed approaches like in Ukraine have resulted in needless Russian casualties.

It's amazing how Russia dropped the ball in the above two things. It points to a systemic rot in their war fighting and decision making capabilities. The world is seeing an emperor lose his clothes in real time. Its very unnerving. I guess this is not the right thread for this discussion, so I'll stop it here.

The issue going forward is quite simple. Are the Russians capable of adapting to the situation and taking the initiative to win the contest going forward.

[Cyrano]

I has asked brar_w ji if all the aid and funding from US to Ukraine was free donations. Unless I'm mistaken, got no answer.

Well, the congress just passed the "“Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act of 2022”

https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-con ... /3522/text

SEC. 2. LOAN AND LEASE OF DEFENSE ARTICLES TO THE GOVERNMENTS OF UKRAINE AND EASTERN FLANK COUNTRIES.

(a) Authority To Lend Or Lease Defense Articles To Certain Governments.—

(1) IN GENERAL.—Subject to paragraph (2), for fiscal years 2022 and 2023, the President may authorize the United States Government to lend or lease defense articles to the Government of Ukraine or to governments of Eastern European countries impacted by the Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine to help bolster those countries' defense capabilities and protect their civilian populations from potential invasion or ongoing aggression by the armed forces of the Government of the Russian Federation.

(2) EXCLUSIONS.—For the purposes of the authority described in paragraph (1) as that authority relates to Ukraine, the following provisions of law shall not apply:

(A) Section 503(b)(3) of the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961 (22 U.S.C. 2311(b)(3)).

(B) Section 61 of the Arms Export Control Act (22 U.S.C. 2796).

(3) CONDITION.—Any loan or lease of defense articles to the Government of Ukraine under paragraph (1) shall be subject to all applicable laws concerning the return of and reimbursement and repayment for defense articles loan or leased to foreign governments.

(4) DELEGATION OF AUTHORITY.—The President may delegate the enhanced authority under this subsection only to an official appointed by the President by and with the advice and consent of the Senate.

(b) Procedures For Delivery Of Defense Articles.—Not later than 60 days after the date of the enactment of this Act, the President shall establish expedited procedures for the delivery of any defense article loaned or leased to the Government of Ukraine under an agreement entered into under subsection (a) to ensure timely delivery of the article to that Government.

(c) Definition Of Defense Article.—In this Act, the term “defense article” has the meaning given that term in section 47 of the Arms Export Control Act (22 U.S.C. 2794).

Passed the Senate April 6, 2022.

One would suppose it has no retroactive effect since none is mentioned, but I cant be 100% sure its totally precluded either.

Interestingly such an act was used to provide aid to Allies in WW2
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lend-Lease. - a fascinating must read.

Some tidbits:

The final payment of $83.3 million (£42.5 million), (...) was made by Britain on December 29, 2006 (the last working day of the year).

Tacit repayment of Lend-Lease by the British was made in the form of several valuable technologies, including those related to radar, sonar, jet engines, antitank weaponry, rockets, superchargers, gyroscopic gunsights, submarine detection, self-sealing fuel tanks, and plastic explosives as well as the British contribution to the Manhattan Project. Many of these were transferred by the Tizard Mission. The official historian of the Office of Scientific Research and Development, James Phinney Baxter III, wrote: "When the members of the Tizard Mission brought the cavity magnetron to America in 1940, they carried the most valuable cargo ever brought to our shores."

Nice !

[Cyrano]

^^^ Note the title of Section 2:
LOAN AND LEASE OF DEFENSE ARTICLES TO THE GOVERNMENTS OF UKRAINE AND EASTERN FLANK COUNTRIES.

[Pratyush]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/28/politics ... index.html

It seems that Russians are learning.

[brar_w]

I has asked brar_w ji if all the aid and funding from US to Ukraine was free donations. Unless I'm mistaken, got no answer.

Didn't realize you were serious about that since the answer was so obvious. The equipment sent by the US and most other countries (in 2022 once the arms transfers started) is part of military aid and not a sale (though i think some Turkish equipment might have been sold instead of given as part of aid). The $ amount that gets mentioned is reference to the drawdown power of POTUS whereby he/she can utilize existing US military stock of equipment so no confusion there. Drawdown powers mean that they can very quickly transfer equipment usually within days of receiving orders provided they have older stock, or have the ability to downgrade and remove sensitive equipment if they don't have older stock (part of the problem with Javelin transfers is that they are probably beginning to run low on the older variants). For example, majority of the 90 M777 155 mm guns approved for transfer to Ukraine have already been handed over and the remaining will likely make their way in the coming days.

The mention/reference to eastern flank countries is likely in relation to the swaps that might have happened or are planned whereby they transfer their FSU equipment to Ukraine (with which they are more familiar) in return of the assurance that US equipment will make its way to backfill their numbers.

[Cyrano]

Thanks for the clarification! I was asking to know what I don't know.
If i understand you correctly all that was supplied to Ukr until now is free of cost in monetary terms at least?

For these draw down purposes how are items priced in the BoM? For example a javelin kit is costed according to what it was bought for or what the supplier would charge today? As we have seen mil supply prices can vary by several x depending on who is buying and why/when.

[brar_w]

Yes its free hence "military aid". Costing is based on whatever DOD residual value of the equipment they are using based on their internal accounting (residual values are maintained for all equipment like one would expect). Drawdown authority gets approved by Congress and is then at the discretion of the administration. The administration has exhausted most of its current drawdown authority approved by Congress back in March and has put in a request of another $33 Billion worth of authorization about 2/3 of which is military funding for both direct aid but also to replenish US inventories where they have had to drawdown (like Javelins, Stingers, Switchblades etc). Some of the inventories would not be replenished such as the USMC M777s which would have been divested anyway since the Marines are pivoting away from the heavy land warfare based force it had built up during Iraq wars.

[Cyrano]

Thank you, very clear.

[Jay]

The issue going forward is quite simple. Are the Russians capable of adapting to the situation and taking the initiative to win the contest going forward.

I think Russia is capable of some limited wins at this time but it will be at a very steep cost to its nation building. It's becoming abundantly clear that the only way it will sustain any gains outside of south/south east UKR is by taking and dishing massive losses to fighting forces and to civilians. I do not know if Russia is comfortable doing that at this point. Without precision weapons, I doubt it will make any dent in preventing NATO supply routes. Currently, the way it stands, if Russia takes control of Odessa, that would be a big achievement. Beyond that, unless something drastic happens, I do not see many more wins for them.

[Zynda]

Some sense talk from a tank nerd

[John]

This video has circulating the internet but imo is misattributed as an Ukranian artillery attack. This attack IMO looks to be have done by a Ukr drone it looks like it got a lucky hit on Russian Uragan ammo truck.

The video is out of order but if you see at 1:14 there is small fire from cluster munition (likely dropped from one of quadcopters) which started a cook off and chain reaction which we witness earlier in the video.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1520 ... 3ffSNALNdA

This video is also great illustration of how venerable MRLs are compared to Artillery and SPG.

[ManuJ]

Heavy weaponry is pouring into Ukraine.
Poland reports that it alone has given Ukraine over 240 T-72 tanks. This is in addition to self-propelled howitzers and Grad rocket launchers.
Czechs have given 'several dozen' T-72s.
Germany is giving 50 anti-aircraft cannon tanks.
APCs from UK and Australia.
Artillery, more capable drones, and a host of other systems from USA.

Ukraine has more armor now than at the start of war.
Its challenge will be inducting the new weapons into the war theatre quickly and effectively.

[ks_sachin]

The issue going forward is quite simple. Are the Russians capable of adapting to the situation and taking the initiative to win the contest going forward.

I think Russia is capable of some limited wins at this time but it will be at a very steep cost to its nation building. It's becoming abundantly clear that the only way it will sustain any gains outside of south/south east UKR is by taking and dishing massive losses to fighting forces and to civilians. I do not know if Russia is comfortable doing that at this point. Without precision weapons, I doubt it will make any dent in preventing NATO supply routes. Currently, the way it stands, if Russia takes control of Odessa, that would be a big achievement. Beyond that, unless something drastic happens, I do not see many more wins for them.

Jay what constitutes a win.

[Mort Walker]

With regard to the Ukraine war, this US government, POTUS drawdown is being significantly abused. The risk of wider conflict in Europe is increasing where even if it didn't happen today, it could even in the next few years. Some $3.7B in military assistance to Ukraine from the start of the war to 25 Apr 2022. The bad part is the opposition party is not putting a stop to this and they've become stupid cheerleaders themselves.

Read here from Congressional Research Service about what is currently being done to get weapons into Ukraine: https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12040

Table 1. Presidential Drawdowns for Ukraine,
FY2021-FY2022
Date Authorized Amount
August 27, 2021 $60,000,000
December 28, 2021 $200,000,000
February 25, 2022 $350,000,000
March 12, 2022 $200,000,000
March 16, 2022 $800,000,000
April 5, 2022 $100,000,000
April 13, 2022 $800,000,000
April 21, 2022 $800,000,000
Total $3,310,000,000

The $33B to Pakraine is on top of all of this.

[SRajesh]

Some rumour-mongering about revolt by soldiers(maybe psych-ops going overboard??)
Just a poser( mods and Russia believers please go easy one me here)
What if the West eventually break what is remaining of the Russian Empire??
What if there is balkanization of Motherland??
Grand Duchy of Moscow without mineral rich East, how will that fare
That should not happen, but what if??
Purely from Indian MIC point of view, if this come true, what we can and should buy??
blueprints, assembly line ??, Engine tech

[Jay]

Jay what constitutes a win.

At this point, if Russia can get a hold of Odessa and keep control of it along with UKR's eastern province, while not enabling Ukraine to get into NATO and suing for peace with it will constitute a win. I agree that my assessment is based on news coming from mainstream sources and might have huge bling spots. If Russia cannot untangle from this "special operation" by the end of Summer(Jul-Aug) then even if Russia gains any territory it might still be a loss.

[John]

My earlier assessment couple weeks ago that Russians where hoping for pulling Ukr forces into the east and encircling them. Inflicting heavy casualties on them, using that to press for a peace deal in their favor looks to be correct based on hearing from multiple sources. However two major decisions slowed down Russian advance.

- It took long time for eastern offensive to happen (due to units being in bad shape from Kyiv offensive) allowed Ukr to set up their artillery and drones.
- failure to capture Mariupol and attacks in Kherson tied up around 20-30 BTGs in both areas. Russian Intel of over 10k Ukr forces in Mariupol turned out inaccurate and actual count was more around 2-3k (current count of what’s left is unknown). With prospect of tying up 12 BTG just to fight small no of Azov and Ukr marines, Russia finally abandoned Mariupol capture of steel plant and chose instead to encircle the area but precious time was lost and units also suffered losses in their attempt to take the plant.

Right now it is turning into war of attrition

Pentagon intelligence also claims two things which are slowing down Russian advances. They are still suffering significant logistics problems (they need to stay close to their supply dumps) and they still dont have air superiority over the battlefield.

There have been some small extension of the Russian lines heading south of Izyum and towards Lyman, but the pace is such that unless Ukrainian forces are actually close to collapse, the chance of a large scale encirclement is very small.

https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/sta ... 08wCTbsMwA

[ldev]

Heavy weaponry is pouring into Ukraine.......

In the initial weeks of the war with Russian forces on the outskirts of Kiev, NATO believed that it was only a matter of time before Russia captured large parts of Ukraine and the arms supplied then were designed for an insurgency to harass Russian forces after they occupied Ukraine so large supplies of ATGMs and MANPADs. But with Russia unable to capture Kiev and it's withdrawal from the north and the slow progress in the east and south east, NATO now believes that it is possible to push Russia out territory that it currently holds in the East, if Ukraine is given heavy and long range striking power and hence the heavy weapon supplies. Plus NATO's belief is that the longer the war goes on, the weaker Russia becomes as it's existing ammo inventories are depleted and sanctions prevent the production and replenishment of those depleted inventories.

[Vayutuvan]

There have been some small extension of the Russian lines heading south of Izyum and towards Lyman, but the pace is such that unless Ukrainian forces are actually close to collapse, the chance of a large scale encirclement is very small.

https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/sta ... 08wCTbsMwA

Obrien's tweet has zero information in it. The chances being very small is predicated on UkrA are not collapsingwith high chance. Obrien is a Euro shill, I guess.

[John]

Second Ka-52 shot down by Stugna (an anti tank missile) . I been looking into it but not sure why Ka-52 essentially has to hover to use its Vikhr anti tank missile (we seen it in Ka-52 released footage by Russians see below and seems to only use rocket pods on the move).

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/stat ... ZvmRjIck6w

Ka-52 taking out Ukr targets

https://twitter.com/rwapodcast/status/1 ... ZvmRjIck6w

[Pratyush]

John,

1) The conclusion that Ka52 has to hover in order to fire Vikhir is flawed. The fire control system has the ability to engage a target while in the move.

2) most 2 & 3 gen ATGM have the ability to kill low flying helos. So it's immaterial, if the chopper was hovering or flying close to the ground.

[John]

John,

1) The conclusion that Ka52 has to hover in order to fire Vikhir is flawed. The fire control system has the ability to engage a target while in the move.

2) most 2 & 3 gen ATGM have the ability to kill low flying helos. So it's immaterial, if the chopper was hovering or flying close to the ground.

Pratyush in both vids you can see the Ka-52 is hovering not moving. I find it strange what else it will be hovering for, perhaps searching for targets.

Stugna is not fire and forget missile it is guided by laser beam similar to TOW but the operator uses a joystick from control panel. It cannot be used to hit fast moving vehicle let alone moving helicopter. Compare that with Javelin which can be fired against a moving helo and the IR seeker can lock on to one and hit it (as long as it is not moving too fast).

[Pratyush]

Some rumour-mongering about revolt by soldiers(maybe psych-ops going overboard??)
Just a poser( mods and Russia believers please go easy one me here)
What if the West eventually break what is remaining of the Russian Empire??
What if there is balkanization of Motherland??
Grand Duchy of Moscow without mineral rich East, how will that fare
That should not happen, but what if??
Purely from Indian MIC point of view, if this come true, what we can and should buy??
blueprints, assembly line ??, Engine tech

There are no Russia believers here. Only India believers.

That will solve the hydro carbon and minerals short fall of PRC. As the new states will not have the human resources to deal with an influx of PRC. Nor would they have the strategic muscle of Russia. They will get digested by PRC. Once that happens, the west would have solved the Mellacca problem of PRC. With miniral wealth the flow of which cannot be interdicted. PRC will become unbeatable in the Western Pacific region.

Indian MIC by that time would matured by a great deal. Making dependency on residual Russia immaterial.

The residual Russia will still be able retain the core of its human resource base.

A study of Alexander Dugin will help you in terms of the direction that state will take in the future.

[Pratyush]

John,

1) we don't know why the chopper is hovering.

2) Milan, Tow, HOt, Ingwe, Konkur, Kornet, Ataka, and Vikhir all have the ability to kill low flying choppers. Irrespective of whether they are hovering or flying slowly.

So stugna doing so is no surprise for me.

[John]

John,

1) we don't know why the chopper is hovering.

2) Milan, Tow, HOt, Ingwe, Konkur, Kornet, Ataka, and Vikhir all have the ability to kill low flying choppers. Irrespective of whether they are hovering or flying slowly.

So stugna doing so is no surprise for me.

If you look at video released by Russia you can see it engaging targets with Vikhr while hovering none of videos show it moving while Vikhr is used. Even though in this case we may not know why it was hovering would like to find out why in all PR vids it is doing that. Few folks have noted it has to hover to engage targets at long range as it has to maintain constant LOS but no concrete proof.

https://twitter.com/taxibistront/status ... ZvmRjIck6w

[Cain Marko]

With regard to the Ukraine war, this US government, POTUS drawdown is being significantly abused. The risk of wider conflict in Europe is increasing where even if it didn't happen today, it could even in the next few years. Some $3.7B in military assistance to Ukraine from the start of the war to 25 Apr 2022. The bad part is the opposition party is not putting a stop to this and they've become stupid cheerleaders themselves.

Read here from Congressional Research Service about what is currently being done to get weapons into Ukraine: https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12040

Table 1. Presidential Drawdowns for Ukraine,
FY2021-FY2022
Date Authorized Amount
August 27, 2021 $60,000,000
December 28, 2021 $200,000,000
February 25, 2022 $350,000,000
March 12, 2022 $200,000,000
March 16, 2022 $800,000,000
April 5, 2022 $100,000,000
April 13, 2022 $800,000,000
April 21, 2022 $800,000,000
Total $3,310,000,000

The $33B to Pakraine is on top of all of this.

That's a lot of zeroes how can they afford it? about 40 billion if I got all those zeroes correct. Damn the MIC must be celebrating

[Pratyush]

If you look at video released by Russia you can see it engaging targets with Vikhr while hovering none of videos show it moving while Vikhr is used. Even though in this case we may not know why it was hovering would like to find out why in all PR vids it is doing that. Few folks have noted it has to hover to engage targets at long range as it has to maintain constant LOS but no concrete proof.

https://twitter.com/taxibistront/status ... ZvmRjIck6w

Things don't add up to me. When a missile integrated into SU 25 aircraft for Anti tank work. Has to be fired from from a hover when employed by KA52.

I hope you can understand that.

[ks_sachin]

As of today the Russians have underperformed and the Ukrainians have punched above their weight. It could be a reasonably safe prediction unless the Russians have sufficient manpower to really encircle the Ukrainians. As Deans has brought out the BTGs.
They may eventually grind them down but the cost becomes so high.
Pretty much everything that Obrien has tweeted seems to be on the money either obviously or through deductive logic.

[John]

Looks like military warehouse was hit near Belgorod Russia, few helos were caught circling in the vid by civilians in the area. Its unknown if they are Ukr helo that launched the attack or Russian helos responding to the attack.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1520 ... hJZaGcQ6ow

Also Russian Oniks was used to hit an airfield in Odessa

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1520 ... hJZaGcQ6ow

[Deans]

Russia has not yet declared war. Its still only a special military operations. Though Russia is for practical purposes, a dictatorship, there are legal constraints with mobilization, if there is no declaration of war.

Conscripts cannot serve abroad - Some of them have, others (including an entire batch in a regiment) have refused to.
There is a limit on how many of the national guard can serve abroad. They are needed for Russia to hold the towns it has captured and start some sort of civil administration.
Russia cannot mobilize reserves if there isn't officially a war.
Also, Russian tank, missile and aircraft production, at the current rate, cannot replace losses. Declaring a national emergency can enable additional production capacity to come online (though imported components may then be a constraint).
The current strategy assumes Putin intends to end this conflict very soon. Else he's in a war of attrition he cannot win.

[ramana]

Very good evaluation by Rohit Vats of the future of tank wrt India.

https://twitter.com/KesariDhwaj/status/ ... fEX3A&s=19

[Pratyush]

As is usual he has hit the ball out of the park.

[John]

Two Russian Raptor patrol boats where hit by TB2 I still don’t know why Russia is operating vessels by Ukraine when it can provide no area air defense.

https://twitter.com/covertshores/status ... PKw11OetTg

[ks_sachin]

Very good evaluation by Rohit Vats of the future of tank wrt India.

https://twitter.com/KesariDhwaj/status/ ... fEX3A&s=19

I would have liked more in way of insight into how armr ops will change with spl reference to combined arms ops

[Cyrano]

FWIW

[sohamn]

Two Russian Raptor patrol boats where hit by TB2 I still don’t know why Russia is operating vessels by Ukraine when it can provide no area air defense.

https://twitter.com/covertshores/status ... PKw11OetTg

This is actually shocking and is all over the news. I can't fathom the incompetence of the russian navy.

[John]

Two Russian Raptor patrol boats where hit by TB2 I still don’t know why Russia is operating vessels by Ukraine when it can provide no area air defense.

https://twitter.com/covertshores/status ... PKw11OetTg

This is actually shocking and is all over the news. I can't fathom the incompetence of the russian navy.

To make matters worse they left their forces in snake island with no air cover and they only have Strela and AAA gun for defense (both are outdated and can’t do anything against TB2 ) . Vids are showing TB2 picking them apart. Snake island has no strategic benefit other than PR.