Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 20 Dec 2013 04:05

RajeshA wrote:
nageshks wrote:RajeshA-ji,
With your prescience, you should become an astrologer

Kerala Congress, both M and B factions, are aligning with Modi.

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/bjp- ... 31761.html

Reading between the lines, it seems like Nairs, Catholics, and BJP cadres (a section of Ezhavas, Namboodris and some Brahmins?) are coming together. This can be a deadly combo in a 3 cornered fight.

Looks like the Modi factor weighs very heavily on the Kerala politicians minds. Are we all underestimating the Modi factor in Kerala?

When I read about this meeting from Jul 26, 2011, I kind of did feel that Modi was planning for some invasion of Kerala. He has been planning this meticulously for a long time.

Is the syrian church the old church that was establised centuries ago? A keralite friend of mine said that they resent their folks being poached by the new age proselytizing denominations. He also said the new denominations are more intolerant of other religions. I guess the syrian church is also concerned about the Muslim expansion. There was one father lamenting some time ago, that soon Muslims will be the second largest religious group in Kerala. That's what might be prompting them to ally with BJP.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 20 Dec 2013 04:58

hanumadu wrote: Is the syrian church the old church that was establised centuries ago? A keralite friend of mine said that they resent their folks being poached by the new age proselytizing denominations. He also said the new denominations are more intolerant of other religions. I guess the syrian church is also concerned about the Muslim expansion. There was one father lamenting some time ago, that soon Muslims will be the second largest religious group in Kerala. That's what might be prompting them to ally with BJP.

Yes, the Syrian church is feeling the heat. As is the Catholic church. The Syrian church is quasi-Orthodox and they do not convert at all, while the Caths are far less aggressive when compared to the new American churches. So - yes, BJP's anti conversion agenda will find many takers in Kerala.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 20 Dec 2013 05:51

RoyG wrote:Kejriwal is more of purist than the old left. He's the real left.

Kejriwal has been compared to V P Singh. IMHO, Kejriwal is not even V P Singh. He is the new Madhu Limaye - the oddball who knew nothing of the politics of governance, but had oodles of the politics of opposition.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 20 Dec 2013 06:02

ramana wrote:
vivek.rao wrote:This man is a genius. He needs gameplan for Assam,WB and Orissa too.

I wish he had a game plan for Andhra Pradesh too.

Already meeting with Chandrababu, bjp is now asking for justice to non T folks before division takes place, plan to offer NDA convenor position to Chandrababu. So he has some plan for AP. AP money bags, film stars met him when he visited Hyderabad. Huge Tv event.

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 20 Dec 2013 06:49

hmmmm interesting , thatha is calling modi and a good person and says he has proved his abilities

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 20 Dec 2013 06:52

lol..so modi is not an untouchable anymore heh

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 20 Dec 2013 06:57

Gus wrote:lol..so modi is not an untouchable anymore heh

Gus, saar - If Thatha kicks the bucket, is succession settled in DMK? Or will we see a dozen DMKs after the old man pops off?

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 20 Dec 2013 07:25

Deleted

Malayappan · Post by **Malayappan** » 20 Dec 2013 09:37

nageshks wrote: Kejriwal has been compared to V P Singh. IMHO, Kejriwal is not even V P Singh. He is the new Madhu Limaye - the oddball who knew nothing of the politics of governance, but had oodles of the politics of opposition.

Raj Narain may be a better example. Socialist too, but as destructive! Speaks English though!

LakshO · Post by **LakshO** » 20 Dec 2013 09:41

RajeshA wrote:When are the elections? March, April, May, June?

I think the polls will be staggered in April & May. I read somewhere that the next Lok Sabha needs to be in place by 1st June.

Imagine the weather in India in the months of April & May

This will force all the aspirants to step out of their AC cocoons and campaign amongst the masses.

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 20 Dec 2013 09:46

yeah right, they will sit inside their AC'ed travelers with mikes, its the local workers who will be the sweating it out, this is what AMMA has been doing for sometime

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 20 Dec 2013 10:14

Looks like Yeddy return is being finalised.

http://www.niticentral.com/2013/12/20/y ... 70669.html

I hope they get to work on the other three who left the BJP - Maheshwar Singh and his HLP, Mahameghabahan Aira Kharabela Swain and his UBP, and Babulal Marandi and his JVM(P). In addition, they can also pick up the powerhouse legislator and BJP rebel from Kundapur - Halady Srinivasa Shetty.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 20 Dec 2013 11:35

hanumadu wrote:

Is the syrian church the old church that was establised centuries ago? A keralite friend of mine said that they resent their folks being poached by the new age proselytizing denominations. He also said the new denominations are more intolerant of other religions. I guess the syrian church is also concerned about the Muslim expansion. There was one father lamenting some time ago, that soon Muslims will be the second largest religious group in Kerala. That's what might be prompting them to ally with BJP.

Muslims have been the 2nd largest religious group in kerala for quite some time. Please check all the census data from 1951.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 20 Dec 2013 11:44

NaMo will not become PM onlee.

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 20 Dec 2013 11:51

nageshks wrote: Gus, saar - If Thatha kicks the bucket, is succession settled in DMK? Or will we see a dozen DMKs after the old man pops off?

I've been waiting since school days for the few days off when that happens. I finished school, college, work in India, massa, r2i, r2us and now my daughter is going to go to school. I think I may die before that.

Stalin has most of the party in his grip except madurai city and surrounding areas where azhagiri and his loyalists run the party. DMK won't split. Azhagiri is a nobody outside madurai.

Yogi_G · Post by **Yogi_G** » 20 Dec 2013 12:45

Gus wrote:
nageshks wrote: Gus, saar - If Thatha kicks the bucket, is succession settled in DMK? Or will we see a dozen DMKs after the old man pops off?
I've been waiting since school days for the few days off when that happens. I finished school, college, work in India, massa, r2i, r2us and now my daughter is going to go to school. I think I may die before that.

Stalin has most of the party in his grip except madurai city and surrounding areas where azhagiri and his loyalists run the party. DMK won't split. Azhagiri is a nobody outside madurai.

Gus ji, I heard recently that even Madurai is under doubt for Azhagiri, when push comes to shove his supposed supporters will fall in the direction of the tide flow. Stalin's control is complete and Azha is only in possession of a mirage that he has some semblance of control in a major city.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 20 Dec 2013 12:57

Yogi_G wrote: Gus ji, I heard recently that even Madurai is under doubt for Azhagiri, when push comes to shove his supposed supporters will fall in the direction of the tide flow. Stalin's control is complete and Azha is only in possession of a mirage that he has some semblance of control in a major city.

The problem for Stalin is that he does not have the old man's charisma - from the few speeches of him that I have seen, he is a bit dour. You can say what you like about Dr. Artiste, but he can be charming when he chooses to be. It will be interesting to see if Stalin can lead the party to electoral victories, where perception matters more than anything else.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 20 Dec 2013 13:03

Interesting insight into the Congress funding schemes.

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/video/lead ... 16572.html

jamwal · Post by **jamwal** » 20 Dec 2013 14:08

Now that Dilli billis have asked Kejriwaal to form the Dilli gobarment, how long do you think that it'll last ?

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 20 Dec 2013 14:13

Full term, as any shorter will hand the state to the BJP. they need this to be sucessful. As an alternative to the BJP. Everything else is secondary.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 20 Dec 2013 16:48

Pratyush wrote:Full term, as any shorter will hand the state to the BJP. they need this to be sucessful. As an alternative to the BJP. Everything else is secondary.

If BJP forms government at center with changes to Lt Governor then it will be replaced by Harshavardhan government. Even Uttaranchal government will fall at that time. Governors will hold on to ensure no BJP government here until then.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 20 Dec 2013 19:46

No it wont happen. for a simple reason that the Lt governor was elected recently in his position. He is not likely to move in the direction, the BJP will want him to move. The BJP will further handicapped by the fact that if they try to do any thing the sikulars deem to in appropriate. They will make life very difficult.

The solution rests letting AK destroying him self. As such people are known to have done in the past. He is far too radical for the city of Delhi. He will loose the next election if allowed to continue to full term.

The INC pulling support is the best option. With the state going to polls subsequently. All the while BJP keeping its powder dry.

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 20 Dec 2013 20:43

someone on TV vomited this

"what modi did in 10 years , AMMA did it in 2 1/2 hrs"

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 20 Dec 2013 20:47

I am one of the critics of Amma (because of disillusionment and disappointment) , but to her credit and even MuKa's credit, they did allow TN to progress. And truth be told, leaders like them and CBN did manage to pull things before Modi. Though not at the same level, scale or focus.

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 20 Dec 2013 21:01

she did , but did she did it in 2 1/2 years ???

svenkat · Post by **svenkat** » 20 Dec 2013 21:05

Saw today an Amma poster put up by a kazhaga thondar in Chennai ."Chalo Dilli"

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 20 Dec 2013 21:14

If this was not politics, I would have thought it was fiction. Karunnanidhi calls Modi a good person and people get their jetti in twists.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Indi ... 666142.cms

Karunnanidhi is clearly trying to split TN votes and give AIADMK less seats. The less seats AIADMK gets, it is better for BJP now.

>>>>> she did , but did she did it in 2 1/2 years ???
It is all politics....what is 2.5 years or 25 years? Why take such political claims seriously....they ought to be laughed out....all "medai paechhu" saar.

These politicians end up playing havoc of their supporters. If JJ opposes Modi, and MuKa supports Modi; what will people pro+JJ & pro-Modi people do? How will pro-Modi & anti-MuKa react?

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 20 Dec 2013 21:30

JJ wont appose modi , esp after the wave. She wont ask BJP for alliance either. They seems to be confident of winning all the seats

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 20 Dec 2013 22:28

krishnan wrote:JJ wont appose modi , esp after the wave. She wont ask BJP for alliance either. They seems to be confident of winning all the seats

politicsparty.com guy in all his wisdom says that Modi would sweep TN using his OBC card, leaving no more than 15 LS seats for Amma.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 20 Dec 2013 22:40

^^Has that politicsparty guy ever been right about any election? He seems to specialize in making wild predictions which look impossible and never come true.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 20 Dec 2013 22:57

this aap-pa and aam-ma imaginations will disappear soon. they are not realistic.

can we list down the achievements, and do an 1:1 comparisons with various contenders and check against kala-angrez dynasty replacement?

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 20 Dec 2013 22:57

nachiket wrote:^^Has that politicsparty guy ever been right about any election? He seems to specialize in making wild predictions which look impossible and never come true.

I don't know about that, but his absolute confidence in his predictions is so funny, it has its own charm and place, unlike other psephologists who don't know whether a party would win 2 or 10 seats.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 21 Dec 2013 00:10

RajeshA wrote:
krishnan wrote:JJ wont appose modi , esp after the wave. She wont ask BJP for alliance either. They seems to be confident of winning all the seats
politicsparty.com guy in all his wisdom says that Modi would sweep TN using his OBC card, leaving no more than 15 LS seats for Amma.

The one truth I found in the Politics Party guys post was that JJ was aligning with CPI. Other than that I am not sure where he is pulling the numbers. True, that JJ is going for 39+1 seats - we all know that. There is no guarantee that OBC en mass would vote for Modi. The voters are segmented; for example Vanniyars is what PMK appeases all day and all night. It is the party that roughs up Dalits now and then. That leader has no respect outside his party. All these people win because of sentiment and clout of their leaders.

Is Modi popular in TN? Only elections will tell, and let us hope he is.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 21 Dec 2013 01:02

^it depends on what TN people's vision of India is, and what it means to TN. Having a strong participation in a non-corrupted setup would only benefit ultimately the people of TN. Modi is an oppty for TN, and if they failed to realize, then amma can take them nowhere than where they are now.

it all depends on TN aam minds, and how Modi can engage them with whom.

kish · Post by **kish** » 21 Dec 2013 01:06

SwamyG wrote: The one truth I found in the Politics Party guys post was that JJ was aligning with CPI. Other than that I am not sure where he is pulling the numbers. True, that JJ is going for 39+1 seats - we all know that. There is no guarantee that OBC en mass would vote for Modi. The voters are segmented; for example Vanniyars is what PMK appeases all day and all night. It is the party that roughs up Dalits now and then. That leader has no respect outside his party. All these people win because of sentiment and clout of their leaders.

Is Modi popular in TN, only elections will tell, and let us hope he is.

Swamyg saar, Modi is certainly popular in TN. I am not saying that he will get a lot of seats like the politics party guys are saying, but modi is popular. An recent observation in a local tea shop "Tea kaadai bench"

between an illiterate & semi illiterate guys

illiterate guy: Modi naa entha sinnathuku vote podanum.
semi-illiterate guy: Avanga katchi Tamil naatula kaadayathu.

This is markedly in contrast to popularity of AB Vajpayee, literally no one in Tamil Nadu knew about ABV until he became P.M.

If TN BJP is intelligent, they can certainly get a couple of seats in TN.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 21 Dec 2013 01:22

illiterate guy: Modi naa entha sinnathuku vote podanum.
semi-illiterate guy: Avanga katchi Tamil naatula kaadayathu.

Translation please.

kish · Post by **kish** » 21 Dec 2013 01:25

Suraj wrote:
illiterate guy: Modi naa entha sinnathuku vote podanum.
semi-illiterate guy: Avanga katchi Tamil naatula kaadayathu.
Translation please.

illiterate guy: which symbol to vote for modi
semi-illiterate guy: Their party is not in Tamil Nadu

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 21 Dec 2013 02:08

TN BJP has no brains.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 21 Dec 2013 02:11

Modi seems to be sending shock waves in Kerala. Here is an article from India Today that claims that BJP has approx. 20% of the vote in Kerala now. If this is true, we can see 2-3 seats for the BJP in Kerala.

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/nare ... 31997.html

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 21 Dec 2013 02:13

SaiK wrote:TN BJP has no brains.

I would not be that harsh. The BJP had no leg room to grow, hamstrung with idiotic alliances where it was a minor partner. No one cared much for the BJP as long as it was a minor partner of either the AIADMK or the DMK fronts. But now, the BJP has been forced to fight on its own since 2009 and it is showing signs of growth. It is good, and if the `High Command' does not shatter the BJP with suicidal alliances as it did in AP, the BJP will grow to take the third pole in TN politics.