amit wrote:... The fact that things changed suddenly after the Foreign Sec's visit (the arrest happened two days after the visit as far as I recall) suggests that something happened during the talks that didn't go down well with some folks in SD and somebody hit upon a half-backed silly plan to "teach" a lesson. If this scenario is true then one needs to know from how far up in the pecking order this plan came from?
Amit, JEM et al,
I am no expert and certainly do not claim to
know what exactly happened (like some people here in BRF

) but I don't think there was a huge conspiracy involving all the higher-ups to "teach" a lesson in such a crude way. Of course, these higher-ups are still responsible, and ought to be held accountable, even if they were merely incompetent (vs evil), but it is important for India (and US) to analyse it and learn from it so that it does not happen again.
We will know soon enough, but here is my take:
- Someone ("human rights lawyers" or SR's connections in US embassy in India) saw a way to exploit the situation for their personal gain. Of course it is/was extremely stupid, wrong and dangerous, (as we now know)... they thought they will get away with it. May be they had personal grudge against DK, or against India or someone else and DK was incidental (and they thought no one will care about DK). They miscalculated and I hope will be exposed and pay for this.
- It is apparent from actual reading of the document (specifying the charges) against DK that the person (agent) who prepared it, was, to put it mildly, very sloppy, and not very bright. (Means it did not have help from higher-ups, who I presume, will at least be more competent). The document looks like it is for harassment and not credible. (Which honest investigator will
swear that DK, knowing it to be false, "caused "SR to file the information which SR filed, for an online application

- he does NOT say, for example, that he was present when the application was filed, or even he interviewed a single witness who said under oath that DK "made SR to file", yet he is ready to "swear" that the information is correct - such as DK forced SR to write that DK will pay $4500/month.

) by merely noting the IP address. (As prosecutor has to prove the case beyond reasonable doubt, that kind of complaint normally will not cause a reasonable prosecutor to proceed)
- Preet Bharara's office, goofed big time, and jumped on it recklessly. He (PB) is very ambitious (I have known about him for quite some time - since he worked for Schumer - and there are talks about him being a possible candidate for AG, or NY Mayor etc) and likes to be known as a "Sheriff of Wall Street" , a tough guy image ready to tackle big-shots. (He also has powerful enemies who will all be too glad if he falls). I think he though it is his big chance to become a hero. (He miscalculated, I think, that most people do not like Indian consulate (Many have complained against Indian Consulate) and will have sympathy for the "poor maid"). His office now say that he came to know about the details of the case only a few days before the arrest. (This is no excuse, IMO). The press conference, he gave, was like pouring gasoline on fire. He also goofed big time for not knowing that DK had immunity due to her UN position,
- In some way I feel sorry for Nisha Biswal. The senate confirmation came recently only and she has been in the office for a very short time. ( Ironically she was maligned by some by her "Gujarat connections"). I don't think she was in the loop.
- I don't think higher-ups (eg Kerry) knew the whole situation. (Not knowing makes them even worse, IMO)
When all is said and done, GOI's reaction, IMO has been excellent. The "reciprocity" issue has been brought forward in a very convincing way. GOI has support for this case, both in India and in US. Even some of the anti-India (and some what bigoted) sources see the goof-up as goof-up on the US's part and say that the way DK was treated was shameful.
***
What will happen? (Of course I may be wrong but IMO the most likely scenario).
- Visa fraud case against DK will be dropped. They may give some face-saving to some culprits but the mere fact that arrest was illegal will be sufficient reason and a motion will be made to drop the charges, prosecutor will not object, and the case will be dropped.
- Unless there is a miracle, PB's future in politics is in great doubt.
- Once fraud case is dropped, for a few years to come, the incident will not go away or forgotten. The will be civil case(s) against false arrest and such, in US courts. Some criminal charges may be filed. (Prosecutors are generally immune to these, but investigators and police officers are not). There may be federal charges ( denial of civil rights). Also NY laws have "hate crime" provision - (If the crime was done
because the victim was a minority) which increases the seriousness of the crime. If DK's husband is American citizen he is not going to remain quiet.
- Some good have come out to see India's reaction. Hopefully such event will not happen again.
Added later:
One important point, let the chips fall where they do - Indian GOI, (and court(s)) should proceed professionally and prosecute any wrong doing per Indian Laws. It may take time ...
(Not so much as revenge, but as a deterrent - and ASK US to cooperate, which I hope US does)
- Prosecute (including Americans citizen and others) who acted unlawfully (eg evacuate SR's family), mindful of its own laws and tradition. If someone with diplomatic connection is involved (and has immunity per India's understanding), ask US to drop the immunity etc.
- Examine other's role (eg PB or others, no matter how high up they are) and see if any laws were broken. If the treatment handed out to Indian Citizen DK is a crime, indict them. It is possible that in practical sense some culprits may escape justice, as US may be reluctant to help, but if convicted, the person will be liable to arrest if (s)he ever enters India.
(I am not an admirer of Russia by any means but have noted that PB is on top of the list of Persona non grata there, due to his role in episode with Russian Diplomats)