Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

[muraliravi]

AAP voters are:
(1) staunch congress voters (20%)
(2) even though I hate congress , I have to nuke BJP because it is anti-modern and anti-western and the idiots sport tilak on the forehead and sing a boring Vandmataram and on top of that they keep saying Bharat Mata Ki Ji. They oppose valantines day, pub culture and have to be hated. (50%)
(3) A very miniscule/extremely meagre independent thinkers who think this one can actually remove corruption from the face of India (10%) [In this one falls some who would vote to BJP in the absence of AAP]
(4) Those folks who thinks India starts from one end of their street to other end of the street and rest is all foreign (20%)


(1) and (2) means division of congress votes. This will kill congress and help BJP and anti-congress parties if AAP is a significant player. Advantage BJP.
(3) and (4) are real swing and they can go to any party other than congress. This is insignificant where congress is competitor and not yielding to AAP like they did in Delhi. Effective usage of Modi and good BJP candidates can dent this even though it is insignificant. BJP has to makes a measured approach. It can't be penny wise and pound foolish. For example not getting Yeddi in fearing AAP in two Bangalore seats.

In my view AK's AAP is a Manchurian gone wrong for congress. The move AAP grows, Congress will end up either helping BJP to win or completely yielding itself to AAP in the name of defeating BJP. This will not work beyond NCR region.

Muppalla ji,

I am putting out numbers here to support your theory.



I think we are cribbing too much about AAP here. One thing is given, media will try its level best to take attention away from Modi and throw light on khujliwal. But has anyone wondered why Namo does not care 2 bits about these fools. Look at these numbers below. In delhi asembly elections barring 1993 when they first got a chance to vote for a local CM, the voting % has been low and has crept up primarliy due to EC efforts.

Now lets analyze BJP and Congress performance in Delhi Assembly elections.

Barring the first election, when did BJP has always has relatively stable vote share of around 35%. The natural vote share of congress around 48%. In 2008, When BSP seemed like a player in some seats it took away a good chunk (8%) from congress to add to its 6% share. Please also note that in 2009 LS, compared to the 2008 assembly elections, congress again ramped up its vote share while BJP's stayed flat. This is simply due to the fact that BSP voters went back to congress for the LS

So now lets see how AAP got 29.7% vote share. 16% from congress, 9% from BSP and 3% from BJP. They probably got 1-2% vote from other independents or due to some extra voting. But even the extra voting is most likely due to EC efforts which is showing up in all states and the fact that voting was extended until 9 PM in delhi. Congress probably used their goons late at night to rig a few booths to make AAP win.

So AAP voters have the following composition.

53% erstwhile congress voters, 30% BSP voters (who can also vote congress). ,10% BJP voters and 7% of votes from people who usually vote for honest independents.

So 83% of the vote that AAP got never belonged to BJP and it is something that BJP will never get. This is in delhi where BJP scrwed up big time and still managed to retain its core vote pretty much intact. Do you seriously think that AAP has any chance of denting BJP/Namo vote in other urban cities in india, where BJP is not screwing up like delhi.

So moral of the story:
BJP voters have made up their mind to see Namo as PM and no khujliwal/MNC-missionary nexus can break this.

They only places where AAP will affect BJP is where BJP screws up its organization and dont seem like a contender. They did that in delhi and still gave away only a meagre share of their vote.

Its another story that if they had retained their 3% vote, they could have been a clear winner.

Namo/BJP has been quite succesful in locking in their voters and even in Delhi which is AAP's nerve center, they could hardly cut the BJP vote.

There is a counter argument to this theory that Namo actually increased BJP vote to 45% and AAP took a big chunk of that away. There is no reason to buy this theory because even in the past when BJP brought in national waves to elections (Vajpayee, Kargil etc..), they only benefitted in Delhi Lok Sabha polls and never in assembly, look at the chart I have pasted. Their Delhi asembly vote share is stuck at 35%.

[JohnTitor]

According to Wiki:

In January 2011, two lawyers of the Karnataka High Court Sirajin Basha and K N Balraj approached the Governor seeking his permission to prosecute Chief minister Yeddyurappa and the Governor H.R. Bhardwaj sanctioned their request.

The Lokayukta report submitted on 27 July 2011 stated that there is sufficient evidence to indict Yeddyurappa and recommended his prosecution under the Prevention of Corruption Act over various land deals. In addition, it also stated that there is evidence to prove that he had granted illegal mining licenses to mining companies and benefited through them. After accepting the Lokayukta report, Governor Bhardwaj again approved the prosecution of Yeddyurappa and the Karnataka High Court also allowed the police to question him.

Yeddyurappa was arrested on the evening of 15 Oct 2011, hours after the lokayukta court issued an arrest warrant in two cases of corruption for illegally denotifying land in and around Bangalore. Later, He was granted bail on 8 November 2011 after spending 23 days in jail.

However in March 2012,the High Court of Karnataka quashed the FIR registered against him regarding the Mining scam. A division bench of high court of Karnataka passed the order stating that "Suspicion cannot be a ground to tarnish the image and reputation of a person who is holding a Constitutional post. Even during the course of argument, a specific question was put to Lokayukta counsel to produce any material to connect the petitioner for alleged offences, but he was mum and did not indicate any favours shown by Yeddyurappa as the chief minister to any mining company".

All of that might be true, but tha KAR govt under yeddi had a lot of issues. There were so many problems with garbage and water under him. Even if he is corrupt, I would still choose him over the INC simply because of the scale of corruption (i'm not against someone cleaner though). But my guess is there will be a sizeable section who wont forget his garbage problem!

[KJo]

I think the people by and large want AAP, so it works in BJPs favor to let them show what they can do.

[KJo]

Shonu what garbage problem?

[RajeshA]

I think the people by and large want AAP, so it works in BJPs favor to let them show what they can do.

I think there is no reason for BJP to give AAP any space at all to rule Delhi! BJP wanted to be seen as a principled party and they have proven that by not trying to wean off any AAP MLAs and trying to form their own govt in Delhi. Dr. Harsh Vardhan has said they would sit in the opposition. They have forced AAP to align with Congress and show their true colors.

This is all that was necessary: to have the upper hand in political morality!

But this does not mean BJP should let AAP control Delhi for the next 5 years. Here BJP should play hard ball. They should pay off 4-5 MLAs of AAP to resign, all properly packaged as sacrifice and principles, as their devotion to Anna Hazare and their inability to reconcile an alliance with a corrupt party like Congress.

Then BJP should go all out and win these 4-5 seats, either by putting up new candidates or those AAP candidates who resigned.

BJP should still try to form a government in Delhi. All this "Tyaag" mentality should not go beyond the minimum necessary.

If BJP breaks AAP on a principled issue of support from Congress, BJP would have finished off Arvind Kejriwal in Delhi itself, both as a CM as well as a Anti-Corruption "icon".

In fact BJP can get the ball rolling by getting the AAP MLA from Delhi Cantt., Surender Singh to resign. Surender Singh is former NSG commando, who was severely injured during 26/11 Mumbai attack while flushing out militants from Taj hotel. He won against the BJP candidate by just 355 votes.

If he takes a principled stand, he can become a political brand in himself.

[Paul]

I am happy that AK is becoming CM. Now he can show what he can do. A good experiment in a small state. But Modi should be PM.

For a minute, I was worried about reports coming in of Manish Sisodia becoming CM. That would have given them plausible deniability when AAP starts to slip. Can still happen.

[svenkat]

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/other-states/amarinder-writes-to-pm-on-central-quota-for-jats-wants-it-in-punjab-too/article5490480.ece

Move to extend facility only to nine States is “unfair and discriminatory,” says former CM
Describing the Centre’s move to provide reservation to Jats in Central government jobs only in nine States as “unfair and discriminatory,” Punjab Congress leader Amarinder Singh has written to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, asking him to extend it to Punjab and three other States.

Captain Amarinder Singh, former Punjab Chief Minister and president of the All-India Jat Maha Sabha, has said reservation should be based on caste and not religion as Sikh and Muslim Jats have been excluded from the benefit at several places.
In his letter to Dr. Singh, copies of which were released to the media here on Sunday, Captain Amarinder Singh said Jats had presence in 13 States.

He demanded that the benefit should also be extended to Punjab, Jammu and Kashmir, Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh.Ahead of the Lok Sabha poll, the Centre on December 19 took a step forward towards granting Jats reservation in Central government jobs as it asked the National Commission for Backward Classes (NCBC) to expeditiously take a call on it.

Considering a proposal of the Ministry of Social Justice and Empowerment, the Union Cabinet held that the NCBC should reconsider its 2011 decision in which it had rejected demands for reservation to the community at the Central level.

The Cabinet asked the NCBC to take an early decision on including Jats in the Central list of OBCs by which the community members could avail themselves of the quota benefits.
The senior Congress leader said the move was “unfair and discriminatory” and national decisions could not be applied “selectively.” “This is arbitrary and will be viewed as a partisan attitude,” he said.

[svenkat]

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/jat-leaders-thank-sonia-for-backing-reservation-demand/article5490481.ece?ref=relatedNews

Hundreds of members of the Jat community on Sunday met Congress President Sonia Gandhi and thanked her for her role in getting the government to ask the backward classes commission to take a quick call on granting them reservation in central government jobs.

Ms. Gandhi, in turn, surprised the community members by stepping outside her residence to greet them.

Haryana Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda, his son, Deepender Singh Hooda, and former Speaker Balram Jakhar were among the prominent leaders who called on Ms. Gandhi.

The visit by the Jat leaders assumes significance in the light of the Union Cabinet decision which is being seen as an effort by UPA to woo the community ahead of Lok Sabha polls in 2014.

Expressing his gratitude, Mr. Deepender Hooda said the doors for the community were closed following a National Commission for Backward Classes (NCBC) decision in 1999, but added that things looked positive for them with the Union Cabinet’s direction to the former.

The Cabinet had on Thursday asked NCBC to take a final call on granting Jats OBC status at the central level.

[svenkat]

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/tamil-nadu/minority-assertion-keeps-dmk-and-aiadmk-away-from-bjp/article5490377.ece

Modi factor may have no effect on the parties
The Narendra Modi factor could be looming large over the electoral scene at the all-India level, but in Tamil Nadu, neither of the two main Dravidian parties seems too keen on a pre-poll alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) for fear of alienating the minorities.
Instead, both the AIADMK and the DMK are vying with each other in organising or participating in Christmas celebrations in addition to the traditional practice of hosting Iftar parties.
“They are more concerned about the Assembly polls in 2016 than the Lok Sabha election next year. Even if the BJP gets a chance to form the government with the support of either of the Dravidian parties next year, the party from Tamil Nadu may not seek berths in the Cabinet.

Both these parties will badly need minority votes in the Assembly elections,” said former Congress MP Peter Alphonse.

On different occasions in the past, the ruling AIADMK and its arch-rival DMK have joined hands with the BJP and joined the government led by the national party. The assertive posturing by Muslims in the wake of the Babri Masjid demolition in 1992 and the Tamil Nadu Prohibition of Forcible Conversion of Religion (TNPFCR) Act enacted by the AIADMK government in 2002 proved to be turning points in minority politics in the State. The former incident led to the formation of radical Islamist outfits, and these new groups refused to be appendages of the Dravidian parties.

“The minorities clearly expressed their anger against the AIADMK in the 2004 Lok Sabha polls and again in the 2006 Assembly election. The impact can be seen from the fact that the BJP was left in the lurch in the 2009 LS polls in Tamil Nadu,” said M.H. Jawahirullah, MLA of the Manithaneya Makkal Katchi (MMK).

Mr. Alphonse said historically, minorities in Tamil Nadu used to vote for the Congress before switching their loyalty to the Dravidian movement. Narendra Subramanian, in his book ‘Ethnicity and Populist Mobilization,’ argues that the DMK became more closely associated with Muslims because it allied with the Muslim League from 1962 to 1974. This alliance was close enough for the two party organisations to become virtually indistinguishable by the mid-1960s in areas like Begumpur (a Muslim locality in Dindigul).
“In fact, it was Quaid-e-Milleth, leader of the Muslim League, who brought together the DMK and its arch-rival Rajaji in the 1967 elections. But this close association also resulted in the Muslim League losing its own identity and the party failing to prioritise the requirements of Muslims,” said Mr. Jawahirullah.

Mr. Alphonse said that even though both Muslims and Christians closely identified themselves with the DMK, Christians, especially fishermen, threw their weight behind M.G.Ramachandran, when he launched the AIADMK.

“The relationship got strained when Ms. Jayalalithaa introduced the TNPFCR Act. Today, there is awareness among the minorities and they will vote only for a secular formation. The reservations the Dravidian parties have about aligning with the BJP reiterate the assertion of the minorities,” he said

[krishnan]

[bhargava]

Nutrajan getting the boot was not roar-e-chooha after all ...

The resignation of Jayanthi Natarajan, Minister of State for Environment and Forests, from the Union Council of Ministers comes exactly a week after a suicide drama staged by a four-member family from Sivaganga in front of Sathyamurthy Bhavan, the Tamil Nadu Congress Committee headquarters at Chennai.

On December 14, Selva Doss (42), his wife and two children tried to self-immolate in front of the TNCC office demanding Jayanthi Natarajan return Rs 33 lakh collected by members of her personal staff after promising jobs in the department of Animal Special Police, a non-existent force under the Union Ministry of Environment and Forests.

Source: DOSS LED TO JAYANTHI’S RESIGNATION?

[Muppalla]

So moral of the story:
BJP voters have made up their mind to see Namo as PM and no khujliwal/MNC-missionary nexus can break this.

They only places where AAP will affect BJP is where BJP screws up its organization and dont seem like a contender. They did that in delhi and still gave away only a meagre share of their vote.

Its another story that if they had retained their 3% vote, they could have been a clear winner.

Namo/BJP has been quite succesful in locking in their voters and even in Delhi which is AAP's nerve center, they could hardly cut the BJP vote.

There is a counter argument to this theory that Namo actually increased BJP vote to 45% and AAP took a big chunk of that away. There is no reason to buy this theory because even in the past when BJP brought in national waves to elections (Vajpayee, Kargil etc..), they only benefitted in Delhi Lok Sabha polls and never in assembly, look at the chart I have pasted. Their Delhi asembly vote share is stuck at 35%.

In my view, INC created this AAP to cut swing going to BJP but even in Delhi, congress has to yield to this guy to stop BJP (hear Shiela Dixit's comment that hum bewakoof hai ...). How much they will yield in other places? If they don't yield, AAP will cut INC. If they yield there will be no INC. It should not work.

[kapilrdave]

I think AAP will field itself strongly only where cong has absolutely nothing to lose unlike delhi where they had everything to lose. They want to hold BJP gains as much as they can. Time for us and entire BJP/sangh cadre to wake up and start spreading the word immediately on SM (which is already happening but there is too much focus on delhi which has negative impact. Delhi is past now.) and word of mouth. There is no real and committed votebank for AAP as of now outside delhi. So it should be very easy to stop people getting sucked into this cult. From my personal experience I can say that just calling them out as hard core naxalite is sufficient at this stage. Say that they survive by foreign funding and missionaries hence get attention of media which is also run by FDI. Going by cold facts and figures will not help. Now that he is taking support of cong in delhi it should be ridiculously easy to convince naive AAP supporters because they don't bother to get into detail and see the things in blank and white. Use chirinjivi's example also. People who support farji are doing it out of naivety and innocence. So Causing enough doubt on farji is enough. Throw some facts at lesser naive supporters and they will return to normal programming i.e. modi loving. And at least brfites should be capable enough to counter the cong == bjp argument.

[Shanmukh]

During the campaign, Hazrat Kejriwal was swearing on his kids that he would neither take support from the Congress (or BJP) nor lend support to them. Wonder what he says now .....

[kapilrdave]

^^ He is personally still against it but people's referendum FORCED him to take this unwanted decision.

[krishnan]

[Shanmukh]

PMK steps up efforts to join hands with the BJP in Lok Sabha elections.

http://kollytalk.com/tn/news/pmk-steps- ... 00412.html

SVenkat-ji, and Gus-saar, how would you interpret these signs of the PMK and MDMK? In the past, these would join hands with the DMK or AIADMK. Now, neither of them wants to have anything to do with DMK (AIADMK has already shut its doors on electoral alliances). Is it because the BJP is seen as a better bet than the DMK for these smaller parties?

[Rahul Mehta]

I think AAP will field itself strongly only where cong has absolutely nothing to lose unlike delhi where they had everything to lose. They want to hold BJP gains as much as they can. Time for us and entire BJP/sangh cadre to wake up and start spreading the word immediately on SM (which is already happening but there is too much focus on delhi which has negative impact. Delhi is past now.) and word of mouth. There is no real and committed votebank for AAP as of now outside delhi. So it should be very easy to stop people getting sucked into this cult. From my personal experience I can say that just calling them out as hard core naxalite is sufficient at this stage. Say that they survive by foreign funding and missionaries hence get attention of media which is also run by FDI. Going by cold facts and figures will not help. Now that he is taking support of cong in delhi it should be ridiculously easy to convince naive AAP supporters because they don't bother to get into detail and see the things in blank and white. Use chirinjivi's example also. People who support farji are doing it out of naivety and innocence. So Causing enough doubt on farji is enough. Throw some facts at lesser naive supporters and they will return to normal programming i.e. modi loving. And at least brfites should be capable enough to counter the cong == bjp argument.

Remember Deewar's dialog's "mere paas maa hei"?

Well, AK ke paas MNC-paid-media hei. (AK has MNC-paid-mediamen).

And paid-media claims that AK has laws which will change system. And BJP leaders never wasted their money to train voters or even their activists !! And so voters are not trained or informed enough to ask AK "show me the law-drafts". So when paid-media says that "AK has laws that will improve system", the audience believes it.

Now BJP always believed that showing a NaMo with supermanly image will impress all youth. Well, most youth DID NOT get impress by image. Many were looking for "how will NaMo fix system?". In NaMo, they did see expensive dress, expressive goggles, superb walk style, superb hand waving style, good oratory etc etc but at the end of the speech, they had no clue on "how will NaMo reduce corruption?" "how will NaMo reduce crimes" etc etc questions. In AK, they saw no expensive dress, simple eye glasses, ordinary walking style etc but the MNC-paid-media convinced the youth that AK stands for "laws that would reduce problems". So at the end of the day, many find NaMo less convincing than AK.

The ONLY people who are NOT getting swayed by AK are those who ask for drafts. Here is a 51 second video of an activist , not me, asking Prashant Bhushan for DRAFT, something that took Prashant Bhushan off guard !!! Pls see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sFlwhYcRGyY , and see more on video at https://www.facebook.com/mehtarahulc/po ... 1070646922 . But sadly, there are only 1000-2000 activists who understand the FACT that "activists should NEVER trust a draftless leader, and activist must ask for the DRAFT for whatever promise leader makes".

Since 90% activists dont know importance of drafts, AAP is now growing like weeds across urban areas and colleges. All students across India are running for AAP. Even in place like Jabalpur, where I have my 3-5 RTR volunteers, some 100-300 youth signed up for AAP !! In Mumbai, Bangalore etc , there is a stampede running into 1000s. Some youth are still with NaMo because AK doesnt have image that "AK can win 200 Loksabha seats and defeat Congress", while NaMo has that aura. But paid-media can create an aura that "yes, AK can win 200 seats across India", and a big chunk of middle class may become AK-fan !!!

There is ONLY one cure to AAP --- tell activists the importance of DRAFTS. And that will hurt BJP as well, as BJP too has no draft. So what "you" gain by telling activists that he should ask for DRAFTS? Well, BJP wont gain, but India will. Once youth ask AK to provide him the DRAFTS of all tall promises , AK will get exposed. And if BJP doesnt have DRAFTS by that time, then BJP will also lose.

So Nationalists have to decide what they wish to do

1. Ask youth to ask AK to give DRAFTS of changes AK is proposing --- AK loses, BJP loses more (unless BJP makes drafts too), nation gains

2. Ask youth NOT to ask AK to give DRAFTS of changes AK is proposing --- AK keeps gaining, BJP loses less , nation loses big time.

I have decided (1). Each one on his own.

[muraliravi]

Now BJP always believed that showing a NaMo with supermanly image will impress all youth. Well, most youth DID NOT get impress by image. Many were looking for "how will NaMo fix system?". In NaMo, they did see expensive dress, expressive goggles, superb walk style, superb hand waving style, good oratory etc etc but at the end of the speech, they had no clue on "how will NaMo reduce corruption?" "how will NaMo reduce crimes" etc etc questions. In AK, they saw no expensive dress, simple eye glasses, ordinary walking style etc but the MNC-paid-media convinced the youth that AK stands for "laws that would reduce problems". So at the end of the day, many find NaMo less convincing than AK.

The ONLY people who are NOT getting swayed by AK are those who ask for drafts. Here is a 51 second video of an activist , not me, asking Prashant Bhushan for DRAFT, something that took Prashant Bhushan off guard !!! Pls see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sFlwhYcRGyY , and see more on video at https://www.facebook.com/mehtarahulc/po ... 1070646922 . But sadly, there are only 1000-2000 activists who understand the FACT that "activists should NEVER trust a draftless leader, and activist must ask for the DRAFT for whatever promise leader makes".

Saar please. If that is the case, why did AK get lesser votes than Namo/BJP in delhi which is their hub? Just see the previous page where I have shown clearly that Namo has locked all BJP voters and made sure that they will not gravitate anywhere else. You have a valid point that, non- bjp voters who are considering Namo may get weaned away by AK. I doubt that will happen within such a short span of time. It will only happen in places where BJP is not a contender.

All this 1000 activists joining on paper means nothing. You had said AK is beating Namo follower size on fb/twitter. I just checked and that is far from reality. AK has less than 900K follwers on twitter and 1.8M on FB. Namo has 3.1 Million on twitter and a whooping 7.3M on FB. Indian voters are smarter than you think. And this is the honeymoon period they have had. BJP can screw them with the fact they joined with congress.

[krisna]

^^^^
Not to forget, many AK fans on fb/twitter also have NaMo fans or vice versa.

The main point is how long can AK sustain it-- NAMo has this for over a decade increasing in strength.
can AK do this.

[Gus]

The Narendra Modi factor could be looming large over the electoral scene at the all-India level, but in Tamil Nadu, neither of the two main Dravidian parties seems too keen on a pre-poll alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) for fear of alienating the minorities.
Instead, both the AIADMK and the DMK are vying with each other in organising or participating in Christmas celebrations in addition to the traditional practice of hosting Iftar parties.
“They are more concerned about the Assembly polls in 2016 than the Lok Sabha election next year. Even if the BJP gets a chance to form the government with the support of either of the Dravidian parties next year, the party from Tamil Nadu may not seek berths in the Cabinet.

Both these parties will badly need minority votes in the Assembly elections,” said former Congress MP Peter Alphonse.

On different occasions in the past, the ruling AIADMK and its arch-rival DMK have joined hands with the BJP and joined the government led by the national party. The assertive posturing by Muslims in the wake of the Babri Masjid demolition in 1992 and the Tamil Nadu Prohibition of Forcible Conversion of Religion (TNPFCR) Act enacted by the AIADMK government in 2002 proved to be turning points in minority politics in the State. The former incident led to the formation of radical Islamist outfits, and these new groups refused to be appendages of the Dravidian parties.

“The minorities clearly expressed their anger against the AIADMK in the 2004 Lok Sabha polls and again in the 2006 Assembly election. The impact can be seen from the fact that the BJP was left in the lurch in the 2009 LS polls in Tamil Nadu,” said M.H. Jawahirullah, MLA of the Manithaneya Makkal Katchi (MMK).

Mr. Alphonse said historically, minorities in Tamil Nadu used to vote for the Congress before switching their loyalty to the Dravidian movement. Narendra Subramanian, in his book ‘Ethnicity and Populist Mobilization,’ argues that the DMK became more closely associated with Muslims because it allied with the Muslim League from 1962 to 1974. This alliance was close enough for the two party organisations to become virtually indistinguishable by the mid-1960s in areas like Begumpur (a Muslim locality in Dindigul).
“In fact, it was Quaid-e-Milleth, leader of the Muslim League, who brought together the DMK and its arch-rival Rajaji in the 1967 elections. But this close association also resulted in the Muslim League losing its own identity and the party failing to prioritise the requirements of Muslims,” said Mr. Jawahirullah.

Mr. Alphonse said that even though both Muslims and Christians closely identified themselves with the DMK, Christians, especially fishermen, threw their weight behind M.G.Ramachandran, when he launched the AIADMK.

“The relationship got strained when Ms. Jayalalithaa introduced the TNPFCR Act. Today, there is awareness among the minorities and they will vote only for a secular formation. The reservations the Dravidian parties have about aligning with the BJP reiterate the assertion of the minorities,” he said

same old tired nonsense from tn congress. many of these guys won't even get the deposit this time around and they claim to know the pulse of the people and what works in the state.

JJ is not allying with bjp because she is confident of getting all 40 seats or something really close to it. she feels her bargaining power with that performance will be more than allying with bjp at this point, when she feels that it will not increase her chances any more than the already high levels. that is the gamble she is taking.

minority votes are less 'make or break' in larger LS constituencies than assembly constituencies where minority politics may bag you some seats.

and bjp won't touch dmk with a barge pole, given the major scams of UPA govt were a joint enterprise between dmk and congress. if bjp allows dmk in, then they cannot go after congress scams at all. these are the reasons for the current political alignments in TN, not the secular and minority vote tripe..

[Murugan]

Baccho ki sougand, main CONgress ka support nahi loonga,

liar, liar, pant on fire

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yOutxpoXnfg

[abhik]

If BJP breaks AAP on a principled issue of support from Congress, BJP would have finished off Arvind Kejriwal in Delhi itself, both as a CM as well as a Anti-Corruption "icon".

I don't think the BJP have to worry about breaking the AAP. Congies will themselves pull the rug after letting the tamasha run for some time.

[Hari Seldon]

^^ Yes, plug will be pulled in time for kejri to milk sympathy factor (such as may exist) and try to damage BJP in LS polls... moi prediction onlee.

[SandeepA]

The drama of AAP produced by the congress has just started .... with confidence I can say that the Cong will bring down the govt just in time for 2014 elections to generate sympathy for kejriwal .... Mark my words !

[ShyamSP]

If BJP breaks AAP on a principled issue of support from Congress, BJP would have finished off Arvind Kejriwal in Delhi itself, both as a CM as well as a Anti-Corruption "icon".

I don't think the BJP have to worry about breaking the AAP. Congies will themselves pull the rug after letting the tamasha run for some time.

Delhi is secured with AAP+AAP ka baap/Congress. Politically-aware, all-knowing, urban Delhi voters have been proven to be dumb. They will vote for this combo next time also as the vote banks are within the extended family. BJP is suicidal as seen in the case of Karnataka. Congress can not spoil vote banks as they need to win 2014.

[RajeshA]

The drama of AAP produced by the congress has just started .... with confidence I can say that the Cong will bring down the govt just in time for 2014 elections to generate sympathy for kejriwal .... Mark my words !

Exactly! In fact one would see Kejriwal go at Congress and BJP corruption with a vengeance. Sonia would be more than willing to make some sacrifices, let a few Congi pawns die, including Sheila Dixit, to see Kejriwal make a name for himself, with these cases hogging the limelight and MSM, trying to bury NaMo as much as possible.

In fact Kejriwal would even bring out some cases against Robert Vadra. It is better for Sonia to have her own man bring these cases out than have NaMo expose them.

In March, Congress is going to pull the plug on Kejriwal, so that Kejriwal is just pumped enough to take on Modi. And this time Kejriwal would have the distinction of being a CM as well, just like NaMo.

So if BJP wants to do something now is the time, before Kejriwal becomes an "anti-corruption" crusader in office and a martyr to evil Congress.

If BJP can get 4-5 AAP MLAs to resign when the dishonorable AAP-Congress marriage is still fresh, that would stop Kejriwal in Delhi itself.

[svenkat]

nageshksji,
When I read such reports about PMK and MDMk,I lose faith in the human race.

you might be disappointed with the response.But thats exactly how I feel.People like Ramadoss and Vaiko in my book are very,very ordinary people and thats a charitable view.

Yes,PMK and MDMK on their own are worthless parties.Moreover,they hate each other.Its quite possible the scumbag PMK might even align with DMK if BJP does not accept PMKs overtures.Vaiko hates Artiste and so MDMK(which splintered from DMK) will never align with DMK.Its sordid tale of of human venality.

The PMK and MDMK want to ride the modi wave.They realise that Cong is getting weaker and BJPs graph is going up.They want power at the centre.I think,it has little to do with their perceptions of BJPs strength in TN.Infact,their worldview has no place for BJP in TN.

[RajeshA]

Published on Dec 23, 2013
Keshubhai's Son Bharat Rejoins BJP Before LS Polls: PTI

In a major blow to the recently formed Gujarat Parivartan Party (GPP) floated by former Gujarat chief minister Keshubhai Patel, his son Bharat today rejoined the BJP here.

Though he is not considered a heavyweight like his father, Bharat Patel is likely to dampen GPP's prospects ahead of the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

He was welcomed in the party by Gujarat state unit president R C Faldu and general secretary Vijay Rupani by giving him a saffron scarf at the BJP office here today.

"I have discussed this issue with my father and he has told me to take my own path," Bharat told PTI, when asked if he took his father Keshubhai Patel's permission before taking the decision to join the BJP.

"I have been with the BJP and RSS from the beginning of my political career. When my father formed a new party, I only acted as his agent in his Visavadar constituency," Patel said.

In a reply to a question if his father would make any political overtures towards the BJP, he said that as far as his father is concerned, he remains GPP president.

"However, considering his (Keshubhai's) age of 86 years, he told me that he would work with limitations in politics from now," Patel said, indicating that the former chief minister may not be involved in active politics.

Keshubhai who was BJP's first chief minister in Gujarat had formed the GPP before the 2012 state Assembly elections after resigning from his parent party.

However, his party could not make an impact in Gujarat elections, as it managed to win only two out of 182 seats.

Meanwhile, BJP leaders see this a major development, especially after another former BJP MLA Rakesh Rao, who had also joined the GPP, rejoined the party today.

"With Bharat Keshubhai Patel rejoining the BJP, our strength in the Saurashtra region will increase manifold," BJP general secretary Rupani said.

These developments come four months before the 2014 Lok Sabha elections and are likely to benefit the BJP in wooing Gujarat's strong Leuva Patel vote bank.

GPP is most likely to fold up into BJP sooner than later. NaMo is on his way to consolidate BJP in Gujarat. Target: ALL 26 seats.

[abhik]

The congress loves it's own hide more than it hates the BJP. If it pulls the plug so soon it won't even get the handful odds seats it got this time. The local congies know that their vote bank has shifted to the AAP, but they themselves cannot shift to the AAP. There is no place for them. This is a matter of life and death of their political careers. They won't take this lying down.

[SaiK]

mr seldon, also prepate the divorce certificate ready soon.

[Shanmukh]

GPP is most likely to fold up into BJP sooner than later. NaMo is on his way to consolidate BJP in Gujarat. Target: ALL 26 seats.

Bang on target, RajeshA-ji. They are also getting back Yeddy, and they already got back Yatnal. Now they need to work on UBP, HLP, JVM(P), and a bunch of independent legislators who had left the BJP and won (Halady Srinivasa Shetty in Karnataka comes to mind). A BJP consolidation can easily push the total BJP vote, given the present Modi wave, towards 30%.

[RajeshA]

The congress loves it's own hide more than it hates the BJP. If it pulls the plug so soon it won't even get the handful odds seats it got this time. The local congies know that their vote bank has shifted to the AAP, but they themselves cannot shift to the AAP. There is no place for them. This is a matter of life and death of their political careers. They won't take this lying down.

abhik ji,

All the Congis are slave to 10 Janpath. 95% of them wouldn't know it but Sonia ji has decided to move her assets from Congress to AAP. So all the Congis are all "Balee ka Bakra". I don't know if Sheila Dixit is in know of this, but regardless of whether she is or not, she would probably get her pension and security.

If Sheila has to go down then at least as dog food to Sonia's other faithful - Arvind Kejriwal, rather than Dr. Sahib from the communal party.

I would say Sonia has won this round against Modi.

[Abhijit]

Delhi Election Analysis - A deeper look into the numbers - 2008 Vs 2013

Macro Observations:

- Overall vote % of INC, BJP (+SAD), AAP and Rest (everybody else including JD, BSP, IND, LJP etc.) is 24.68, 34.15, 29.64 and 11.53 respectively.
- In 2008 there was no AAP, but there was a strong showing by BSP and other parties. How to compare 2008 and 2013 for others? I have taken BJP and INC % as they are. I have created a category called 'Third' which encompasses any party that either bagged the second or third position in any constituency or 1st in case of the seats won by any of these third parties. The rest of the parties in each constiruency have been bundled together as 'Others'. That gives us INC, BJP, THIRD and OTHERS for 2008. Their vote % numbers for 2008 are: 40.32, 36.86, 15.51 and 7.31 respectively.
- This means, INC lost 15.7% of its share, BJP lost 3.5% while the rest (that means the THIRD as well as the OTHERS catagoeries mentioned above) lost 11% of their votes. This adds up to the AAP overall vote share.
- Since INC came down from 40.32 to 24.68, it represents a loss of almost 39% of its votes in 2013 over 2008. For BJP it represents a loss of 9.5 %. But for the rest of the kichadi parties the loss is even more drastic: a 48.2% loss of votes. Thus AAP caused minor vote % damage to BJP, severely injured INC but almost decimated the rest of the kichadi parties - or so it would seem from the macro analysis. But there is a much more important story hidden in the micro analysis that i will come to a bit later. The biggest loser in this election has been BSP, followed by JD(U) and other mandalvadi wannabe parties. No doubt that INC got wiped out, BJP got severely dented, but nothing compared to the losses incurred by the kichadi parties.
- Congress lost its vote share in 65 out of 70 seats, and managed to improve its vote % only in 5 seats. BJP lost its vote share in 45 out of 70 while it increased its vote share in 25 constituencies, in spite of the stiff challenge posed by AAP.
- Even out of the 5 seats where INC actually increased its vote share, it won only 2 (which it retained from 2008) and lost the remaining 3 (2 to BJP and 1 to JDU)
- BJP Lost 11 of the seats it held in 2008. All were lost to AAP. So AAP directly hurt BJP in these 11 seats. In 2008 BJP had won 23 seats. Except for the Mundka seat that was held by BJP and was wrested from it by Rambeer Shokeen, IND.
- But this loss was more than compensated by gaining 20 seats from INC and 3 seats from the kichadi parties. Would these seats have still come to BJP due to NaMo wave? At least some of them would have.
- In Delhi, 2 massive and opposite forces, entirely new to the Indian electoral scene, collided against each other. The two forces were AAP and NaMo. The results have shown that Congress was a spent and emaciated force. The real battle happened between these two phenomena: AAP and NaMo. Both are new to the electorate. Neither AAP, nor NaMo existed as a force in 2008. And both were created (as far as the Delhi electorate is concerned) in the last 1 or two years. How to estimate the real impact of these two massive and opposite forces that collided against each other in Delhi?

I am going to put images of my numbers (if anybody wants the raw numbers, which I have painstakingly entered into an Excel sheet, while referring to two different websites for each of the 70 constituencies, i can be reached at ast dot commerce at google chacha) for various slices of the Delhi election analysis, comparing 2008 and 2013. I will keep posting my conclusions/inferences over time.

(Green indicates a seat won by INC, saffron by BJP, gray by AAP, yellow by other parties)

[Suraj]

Abhijit: excel-lent data Could you please add an extra field comparing the difference in vote% for the winner and 2nd party in each case where a seat switched hands, i.e. INC->BJP, INC->AAP and BJP->AAP ? Articles stated that where AAP won over BJP, they had narrow wins, but BJPs wins were typically by decent margins (>5% vote differential ?)

[JohnTitor]

Shonu what garbage problem?

Garbage was not being collected and it was overflowing on the streets. It was a mess. So much so that it had become a topic in schools (for homework - assignments etc). His voting out of power was probably more to do with this than the corruption issue (atleast in bangalore)

[Abhijit]

Suraj, I think that data is already there in the images. It has the vote % for all the seats that changed hands, including the changes specifically for inc and bjp. E.g. you can see that the last image shows all the seats 911) that were wrested by AAP from BJP. In these seats, BJP lost a total of 15.5 % vote but INC lost 15% and Rest lost 8.8%. Can you pl. elaborate what data you are looking for?

thx

[Suraj]

Hi Abhijit, yes it's there in the rightmost column, but only for BJP->AAP (the last block of data), not the ones before it. Could you please add it for those as well ?

[JohnTitor]

During the campaign, Hazrat Kejriwal was swearing on his kids that he would neither take support from the Congress (or BJP) nor lend support to them. Wonder what he says now .....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yOutxpoXnfg




https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JC3atTHOkiQ

[JohnTitor]

^^ He is personally still against it but people's referendum FORCED him to take this unwanted decision.

Is that what the AAP supporters are telling themselves?