Managing Chinese Threat

[Arihant]

we seem to be missing a Russian angle in this analysis
The Russian Far East is also a prize up for grabs in Chinese eyes...

Russia would do well to import labor on a massive scale from some country/countries which does not cause integration problems like Islam, nor gives China a freer hand to expand in Russian Far East.

Indian immigration could save Russia from an otherwise inevitable takeover by the Chinese.

This article in Forbes Magazine circa 2003 points out how Siberia is part of China's Lebensraum strategy:

The Dragon and the Bear

The China-Russia border has been a contentious one for centuries, with the power of each nation waxing and waning. Now a search for arable land and other natural resources is drawing the Chinese back into Russia's Far East.
.....

How many Chinese are now in eastern Russia? Nobody really knows. Beyond the 12,000 legally there, estimates range from the Kremlin'sofficial figure of 200,000 to a "secret" official number of 1.5 million.

[Lalmohan]

lebensraum is right, plus all those natural resources (and tigers) to loot
mongolia and manchuria have already been annexed to the middle kingdom
siberia across the amur beckons

[Pratyush]

I prize India's freedom and ability to act independent of anybody. Be it China, or US or Japan or Taiwan or any other tom-dick-and-harry country. And I hope there are others who prize the same and are not willing to sacrifice it on the altar of some deal or border agreement.

The stratagic autonomy of the nation is non negotiable. As the PM said India is too big to be strait jacketed.

[svinayak]

]

I prize India's freedom and ability to act independent of anybody. Be it China, or US or Japan or Taiwan or any other tom-dick-and-harry country. And I hope there are others who prize the same and are not willing to sacrifice it on the altar of some deal or border agreement.

This is not a gaurantee and the evidence of how the deals were done does not give high hopes.

[chaanakya]

All nations are a form of coercion. As for all Chinese are like minded, it's not a delusion, it's a national strategy. You can't be a nation if you don't share a sense of belonging. Thus the "Chinese People" thing. It's my opinion that India needs some sort of national unifying strategy. You can be different, but one people. Not different and different people.

Thank you for stating your viewpoint so candidly. For one thing you are honest - even if I think you are - umm - shall I say "less exposed" to certain realities of existence in an absolutely free country. This is not meant to be an insult. I find your post utterly fascinating and it say a lot more about yourself than you probably meant to reveal.

You views of "One people" and "different people" are things that you have been taught about. They are set in your mind as the truth. You have seen nothing else and believe that to be true. China has done this to a lot of people. Like putting blinkers on and saying "This is the right path. Anything outside this path is wrong".

And as a result you see non uniformity of people and opinions as "non unifying".

So it is pure luck that there are a lot of uniform Han Chinese who are unified as "one people". By the same token it is just bad luck that there are only a few Eskimos. By the argument that "like minded people" and "one people" are needed for unification any nation with Eskimos cannot be a uniform, unified nation. Because they will always be different from non Eskimos. That is true for any nation with any minorities.

But then, use the same argument and you find that Tibetans are different, They are not one people with the Han Chinese. But China insists on including them as "one people" which is a lie of course. Then coercion is needed to make a nation. So you have been taught that all nations are some form of coercion (which is what you said).

So there you have your Chinese "national strategy": Unification as "one people" unless someone disagrees. Those who disagree will be coerced because all nations are some form of coercion.

For a person such as myself living in what appears to be a chaotically free society, what you describe about Chinese strategy and ideas are that of a rigid system of indoctrination with suppression of variation much like fundamentalist Islam. Have you ever considered looking at the religion on offer by your tallest and deepst friends the Pakistanis. It is exactly like that. In fact they are trying to give you Islam in Xinjiang - but the CCP won;t have any of it. "There only one God and that is the CCP"

"God says all people are the same. therefore you are all the same and must kowtow to that God to make the nation of Islam. If you disagree God says to chop off your head . All nations are coercion"


Replace "God" with the Chinese Communist Party and you have China.

I am certain that the communist party is on tenterhooks. They really have unified a whole lot of people with two or three simple lies. "You are one people. If you disagree you will be coerced to be one people". I now know why the CCP are probably worried abut the free Tibetans in India.

As an OT aside:


The more you see the world, the more you realise what you do not know. If you have not seen much of the world, you think you know a lot. The more you know, the more you see of how much you do not know. Your contact with the unknown increases. So if you take humans and expose them to a very narrow amount of information, and restrict their contact with what they do not know - they think they know a lot. This is what China has done to its people and this is what Islamism does too. The concept is clearly illustrated with the diagram below that shows how the more a person knows, the more his area of contact with the unknown and the more he realises that he does not know much. Only the least informed are sure of themselves.

Click on image. The yellow rectangle represents "all possible knowledge"

OM NAMAH SHIVAYAH.

[shiv]

OM NAMAH SHIVAYAH.

The thing that follows from all this is that if the CCP attacks and occupies territory, it will use coercion to make the population of the captured territory submit to CCP notions of one nation, exactly like Islamism demands submission to the notion of unity under one God.

But what if there are too many people in the occupied territory? Tens of millions? There is likely to be brutality, perhaps a lot of torture and genocide And that means costly civil war. A sore that can be made to chip away at the edifice of the CCP. Now here's one method of handling a possible Chinese invasion. The CCP does not know how to handle variation in people except by coercion.

There is one important difference between Islamism and the CCP. the Han people are already one people without the CCP to unite them. That is why Chinese form Islam like "oil droplets" in "Chinatowns" when they go abroad. The CCPs main job is to coerce the outliers - the "munafiq" to heel and come into line and they have brainwashed the Chinese into saying "All nations are coercion" Oh yes of course. There is coercion and there is coercion. A man who begs and cajoles his wife for sex when she is sleepy and gets it before she drops off is coercion. Rape is coercion. So both are the same?

Very interesting chiskology here.

[Arihant]

And China is again on the backfoot in Taiwan....

Taiwanese cool to China's overtures
by Jens Kastner and Wang Jyh-Perng, Asia Times

The survey's most striking finding, however, was how the Taiwanese regard the prospect of eventual unification. In 2000, 12% wanted a quick declaration of Taiwanese independence, last month it was 16%. Ten years ago, 32% of respondents spoke out in favor of maintaining the current status quo "eternally", now it's 51%. The percentage of Taiwanese that wanted to keep the status quo and unify in the distant future dropped from 20% to 9%.

China's public relations problem leaves the KMT government in a dilemma. The more Beijing senses that the KMT's candidates could fare badly in mayoral elections to be held in Taiwan's five biggest cities later this year, the more Beijing doubts that President Ma will win his own re-election bid in 2012. This makes Beijing likely to intensify its pressure on Ma since Chinese President Hu Jintao himself is under the gun.

....

"In fact, many of Taiwan's military officials oppose the China-Taiwan confidence-building measures currently being established," says Arthur Ding, research fellow at Taiwan's National Chengchi University's China Politics Division in an interview with Asia Times Online. "Taiwan's military will follow whatever is instructed by the political leadership, yet in general, it is wary of the PRC's proposals," Ding says.

[TonyMontana]

Can you share the mechanism used by China to achieve this like mindedness?
Zhuang, Manchu, Hui, Miao, Uighur, Yi, Mongols, Tibetan, etc. all like minded with Han
That's right the rest are all minorities less than 20 million at most... but really?
No Shanghai vs Beijing, no North versus South, wow! sounds like there is a secret sauce...
So, why is there unrest around China? If there is such like mindedness?

Maybe I didn't express my statement well enough. My intented meaning is that not everyone are like minded, but the government is working hard on unity. Thus national stategy.

It never fails to surprise me how "power-centric" Chinese thinking can be: nation is a form of coercion and religion is a form of control (another common thought). Why not get rid of Chinese state then, why live with all that coercion?

Because if the "coercion" improves people's lives and reduces relative "suffering", I consider it a good thing. And if "freedom", increases relative "suffering", I consider it a bad thing. (ie Iraq).

[TonyMontana]

Thank you for stating your viewpoint so candidly. For one thing you are honest - even if I think you are - umm - shall I say "less exposed" to certain realities of existence in an absolutely free country. This is not meant to be an insult. I find your post utterly fascinating and it say a lot more about yourself than you probably meant to reveal.

Indeed. I hope you will accept, my difference in opinion.

You views of "One people" and "different people" are things that you have been taught about. They are set in your mind as the truth. You have seen nothing else and believe that to be true. China has done this to a lot of people. Like putting blinkers on and saying "This is the right path. Anything outside this path is wrong".

And as a result you see non uniformity of people and opinions as "non unifying".

Can you blame me? This worked for the Chinese for thousands of years. This is not just current CCP thoughts as some would like to believe. This is Historical baggage. How we roll, so to speak.

So it is pure luck that there are a lot of uniform Han Chinese who are unified as "one people". By the same token it is just bad luck that there are only a few Eskimos. By the argument that "like minded people" and "one people" are needed for unification any nation with Eskimos cannot be a uniform, unified nation. Because they will always be different from non Eskimos. That is true for any nation with any minorities.

But then, use the same argument and you find that Tibetans are different, They are not one people with the Han Chinese. But China insists on including them as "one people" which is a lie of course. Then coercion is needed to make a nation. So you have been taught that all nations are some form of coercion (which is what you said).

Here's were we disagree. You see things (I think, correct me if I'm wrong), along racial lines. Tibetan, Han, Manchu..etc. Where as I see things along nation lines. Chinese, American, Australian, New Zealander. Like you can be Irish, but American. You can be Tibetan, but Chinese. I don't want to turn Tibetans into Han. I want Tibetans and Han to be Chinese. I hope you understand that Chinese culture is more then just Han culture. Like American culture is more then just WASP culture.

So there you have your Chinese "national strategy": Unification as "one people" unless someone disagrees. Those who disagree will be coerced because all nations are some form of coercion.

For a person such as myself living in what appears to be a chaotically free society, what you describe about Chinese strategy and ideas are that of a rigid system of indoctrination with suppression of variation much like fundamentalist Islam. Have you ever considered looking at the religion on offer by your tallest and deepst friends the Pakistanis. It is exactly like that. In fact they are trying to give you Islam in Xinjiang - but the CCP won;t have any of it. "There only one God and that is the CCP"

"God says all people are the same. therefore you are all the same and must kowtow to that God to make the nation of Islam. If you disagree God says to chop off your head . All nations are coercion"


Replace "God" with the Chinese Communist Party and you have China.

Different circumstance. Different view points. Both Pakistani police and Chinese police uses sticks/batons, maybe that another point they are alike. You can say that about any society that is not chaotically free.

I am certain that the communist party is on tenterhooks. They really have unified a whole lot of people with two or three simple lies. "You are one people. If you disagree you will be coerced to be one people". I now know why the CCP are probably worried abut the free Tibetans in India.

The "lie" as you say resenates with the Chinese people. Is it a good lie? Or are they just saying what we want to hear? If we're happy, does it make the lie bad? Think The Matrix. The Chinese are like Cypher, we been through this sh!t so many times in history, we don't care the steak is not real. As long as I get to eat it. Sad? Maybe. But that's our delusion. Who are you to judge?

As an OT aside:
The more you see the world, the more you realise what you do not know. If you have not seen much of the world, you think you know a lot. The more you know, the more you see of how much you do not know. Your contact with the unknown increases. So if you take humans and expose them to a very narrow amount of information, and restrict their contact with what they do not know - they think they know a lot. This is what China has done to its people and this is what Islamism does too. The concept is clearly illustrated with the diagram below that shows how the more a person knows, the more his area of contact with the unknown and the more he realises that he does not know much. Only the least informed are sure of themselves.

Thanks for the kind thoughts. I did Phil 101 in college too. I know what I know and I know what I don't know and I don't know what I don't know I don't know. One more reason for me to come to BRF. But one thing you misunderstood about the Chinese is that, we are not total brain washed. We know the society we live in. We know what the CCP is about. We just don't care anymore. We are just glad that the CCP is not farking us over and want the good time to roll on a bit longer. Because we know it wouldn't last forever and the circle of rise and fall will continue like it did in the last 5 thousand years.

[TonyMontana]

The thing that follows from all this is that if the CCP attacks and occupies territory, it will use coercion to make the population of the captured territory submit to CCP notions of one nation, exactly like Islamism demands submission to the notion of unity under one God.

But what if there are too many people in the occupied territory? Tens of millions? There is likely to be brutality, perhaps a lot of torture and genocide And that means costly civil war. A sore that can be made to chip away at the edifice of the CCP. Now here's one method of handling a possible Chinese invasion. The CCP does not know how to handle variation in people except by coercion.

Just to stir the pot a bit. Name one country that does occupation better then the Chinese. (Runs and hides)

[Arihant]

The thing that follows from all this is that if the CCP attacks and occupies territory, it will use coercion to make the population of the captured territory submit to CCP notions of one nation, exactly like Islamism demands submission to the notion of unity under one God.

But what if there are too many people in the occupied territory? Tens of millions? There is likely to be brutality, perhaps a lot of torture and genocide And that means costly civil war. A sore that can be made to chip away at the edifice of the CCP. Now here's one method of handling a possible Chinese invasion. The CCP does not know how to handle variation in people except by coercion.

Just to stir the pot a bit. Name one country that does occupation better then the Chinese. (Runs and hides)

Oh... I don't know...maybe the Japanese...?

[TonyMontana]

Oh... I don't know...maybe the Japanese...?

Ha! How many years did they occupy again? What's the count on Tibet now?? The KMT was right. The Japanese was a disease of the skin. The CCP is a disease of the heart.

[Arihant]

Oh... I don't know...maybe the Japanese...?

Ha! How many years did they occupy again? What's the count on Tibet now?? The KMT was right. The Japanese was a disease of the skin. The CCP is a disease of the heart.

The Japanese had Taiwan for near-65 years (longer than the Chinese in Tibet), and managed to win hearts and minds - a hard act to beat...

[TonyMontana]

The Japanese had Taiwan for near-65 years (longer than the Chinese in Tibet), and managed to win hearts and minds - a hard act to beat...

Taiwan was an island full of natives back then. Tibet is the size of western Europe. Try again.

[shiv]

We know the society we live in. We know what the CCP is about. We just don't care anymore. We are just glad that the CCP is not farking us over and want the good time to roll on a bit longer. Because we know it wouldn't last forever and the circle of rise and fall will continue like it did in the last 5 thousand years.

Fair enough and I am no one to grudge the Chinese the good times they are having - at least for those who are actually having a good time. But when you go back 5000 years there are times when the Chinese had it bad, and other times when they had it good.

It stands to reason that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is not the sole bearer of credit for the good times that the Chinese have had through history. I am sure many Chinese understand this. However - from the point of view of an outsider from another old civilization that "rememebers" China the CCP is the only one that is (1) belligerent, uncivilized and needlessly aggressive and (b) likes to take the credit for China's current phase of greatness.

Now a Chinese who is happy in China would not be concerned about who takes credit for the fun he is having and he does not see the belligerent uncivilized side of the CCP. Or does he? Any dissident in China who is suppressed will see the uncouth, belligerent side just as well as outsiders such as myself. But of course dissent is suppressed. China's success is the suppression of dissent along with economic improvement that allows the CCP to explain away the suppression of dissent, and imposition of uniformity as the reason for economic improvement.

As far as I can tell there can be two end points to this happy but artificial trade off created by the CCP

a) All of China becomes wealthy after which the Chinese discover that they have a lot of wealth but not the freedoms to go with it because the CCP is still sitting on their heads and taking credit for the sacrifices made by the Chinese people.

b) The are hiccups and slowdowns in the creation of wealth in China that will make the CCP less successful than the image created for itself.

The CCP are as intelligent as the next guy and surely foresee both these threats, Both are true in different parts of China. Both have to be dealt with without giving up power or losing popularity and sheen. The CCP oligarchy with one political thought process must survive. You can go only so far with suppressing internal unhappiness if it exceeds a point. After that you have to start blaming external forces. So the CCP which used to wax eloquent blaming the capitalists and imperialists have turned their attention to real or perceived slights from their neighbours. To me the similarities between the Islamists and the CCP are astounding. After all they both represent an oligarchy, pushers of a narrow ideology and want to stay in power. So they use the same time-worn tactics. They are the danger to India. India needs to make it clear in no uncertain terms that the CCP will get a bloody nose if they fck around. I don;t think Indian have any dislike for the Chinese people. China exists in Indian civilizational memory as an old benign neighbour without the negative connotation carried by the Turkish and Arab hordes or the British. The CCP is destroying that memory while pushing the viewpoint that they are doing great good in China for the Chinese.

[shiv]

Just to stir the pot a bit. Name one country that does occupation better then the Chinese. (Runs and hides)

China is useless at occupation. The Chinese are nor civilizational occupiers of territory. Only the CCP are. The British were masters. The US is fairly good. The Chinese may have learned from the Japanese I guess and are using Japanese methods.

[TonyMontana]

China is useless at occupation. The Chinese are nor civilizational occupiers of territory. Only the CCP are. The British were masters. The US is fairly good. The Chinese may have learned from the Japanese I guess and are using Japanese methods.

Fair enough. I wasn't thinking that far back, but I guess the spanish were pretty good too.

[Arihant]

The Japanese had Taiwan for near-65 years (longer than the Chinese in Tibet), and managed to win hearts and minds - a hard act to beat...

Taiwan was an island full of natives back then. Tibet is the size of western Europe. Try again.

You seem to be contradicting Chinese history, which suggests that Taiwan was a functioning province of the Qing kingdom teeming with patriotic Chinese subjects. Or was that a manufactured history, shoddily manufactured, as with most things made in China? So try yet again...

[TonyMontana]

You seem to be contradicting Chinese history, which suggests that Taiwan was a functioning province of the Qing kingdom teeming with patriotic Chinese subjects. Or was that a manufactured history, shoddily manufactured, as with most things made in China? So try yet again...

Oh Sh!t. Damn it. My handler is gonna be mad...
Too late to delete it now.

So, I hereby declears, that I'm under my own free will, and I believe, without reservation or doubt, Taiwan was, is and always will be a inseperable part of China. So help me God. Amen.

Hope that clears things up with Central.

[TonyMontana]

The CCP is destroying that memory while pushing the viewpoint that they are doing great good in China for the Chinese.

CCP is like any Dynasty before it. They comes and goes, the average Chinese couldn't care less. If life is getting better for them, they don't care if the cat is black or white. When it doesn't, it's a different story. There's plenty of peasant rebellions in Chinese history.

[sanjaykumar]

Hope that clears things up with Central.

The only residual of Marxism in China is that the past is unpredictable.

[TonyMontana]

Hope that clears things up with Central.

The only residual of Marxism in China is that the past is unpredictable.

Wow! That must be the sound of one hand clapping...

[shiv]

CCP is like any Dynasty before it. They comes and goes, the average Chinese couldn't care less. If life is getting better for them, they don't care if the cat is black or white. When it doesn't, it's a different story. There's plenty of peasant rebellions in Chinese history.

This is a perfectly reasonable (indeed normal) attitude to take.

It follows from this that the CCP has to play its cards right to prevent a "peasant uprising"

Now these peasants want wealth and happiness. OK maybe they want more than one kid but that's a sacrifice they make for God and the CCP. Or do the peasants want Islands off the Japanese coast and the Indian territory of Arunachal Pradesh?

Maybe they want both. I'm willing to bet that they want wealth and a good time more than wars. Trying to get those outside territories is going to bring the CCP a war and a war means a temporary slowing down of some economic benefits and a permanent change in some things. Especially if China occupies territory and needs to hold it in the face of insurgency like the US holds Iraq and Afghanistan.

Chances are that the CCP wil avoid war if possible. That is fine for everyone, but the CCP is an opaque organization that has imposed pointless and mindless conflict on others. If, as I have surmised, conflict can be damaging to the CCP there must be other special circumstances in which conflict is an advantage for the CCP provided the blowback on the economy can be kept down and the peasants kept happy and without rebellion. No time now - but I will speculate of what sort of motivation the CCP may have for that type of war.

[Dhiman]

It never fails to surprise me how "power-centric" Chinese thinking can be: nation is a form of coercion and religion is a form of control (another common thought). Why not get rid of Chinese state then, why live with all that coercion?

Because if the "coercion" improves people's lives and reduces relative "suffering", I consider it a good thing.

So let me understand this line of thinking: nations are a form of coercion and one should not get rid of this coercion because coercion leads to improving standards of living. Is this correct? If so then why do we see increasing standard of living in India (chaotically free), but not in North Korea (ordered by coercion)?

[naren]

You seem to be contradicting Chinese history, which suggests that Taiwan was a functioning province of the Qing kingdom teeming with patriotic Chinese subjects. Or was that a manufactured history, shoddily manufactured, as with most things made in China? So try yet again...

Oh Sh!t. Damn it. My handler is gonna be mad...
Too late to delete it now.

So, I hereby declears, that I'm under my own free will, and I believe, without reservation or doubt, Taiwan was, is and always will be a inseperable part of China. So help me God. Amen.

Hope that clears things up with Central.

So whats next, are you going to go "Michael Westen" ?

[naren]

Many have suggested that we play the Tibet or Taiwan or Xinjiang card with China. But none of them have, have listed out what playing these cards will entail.


Some have even suggested that we do not recognize Tibet as part of China. Let us assume that we do that, then after this what? Will our problems with China evaporate? Will China drop its claims on AP and vacate northern ladakh territories (I refuse to call them Akash Chin) that it has occupied? Do we have sufficient power (armed forces and economic strength) to compel the Chinese to leave Tibet and not return back into Tibet? Will china stop aiding pakistan with weapons and other strategic items?
For all of these questions the answer is no.


Let us take the example of Taiwan. Taiwan itself has not sought independence from China. Some have said Taiwan has been threatened by China so it has not sought independence. China has in the recent past 5-7 years become strong enough to threaten Taiwan. Before that it was not strong enough. Post the Cold-war ended, Taiwan could have declared independence. It did not. So for some 12 odd years, i.e. 1989-2001, when its power (militarily and economic) was greater than China it did nothing. Taiwan could have declared independence post Tienanmen incident in 1989. Taiwan did not. Supporting Taiwan will not provide us with anything. Will Taiwan support India, if India were to play the Tibet card? The answer is no. India will not be able to help Taiwan with men and/or material, in case the push becomes a shove.


There have been suggestions that we align with other countries like US or Japan or Vietnam. Barring Vietnam, the other two options are worse. US is a highly un-reliable partner. It is now trying to align India with itself because it is worried about China outpacing it. And it wants India's manpower and geopolitical capital just like the allies required it against Nazis and Nippon. Japan is a preaching country, which sitting under the umbrella of a nuclear power, see it fit to lecture and hector other countries about their nuclear weapons. Japan is in a mess with China due to its own reasons. Japan-China of East Asia will be like Pakistan-India of South Asia. One party is bigger in fact massively bigger than the other.


There is saying in hindi, which roughly translated means "The Dogs bark and the troop of elephants marches on regardless." (Kutaa Bhoka ta rahata hai, Hathiyon ki baarat chalte rahate hai). None of the actions of China, stapling Visas or AP map issue have in any way affected the reality. AP is a part of India. India has not given up its claim over northern ladakh. What we have to worry about is that we keep a capability to deter china from repeating a 1962 or doing a kargil on us. We will also need to have the capability to fight and win a two front war. US and Britain in world war showed that it is possible. But we need this capability on our own. Not by being dependent on others, especially not on US. If it is dependent on others, we will be at their mercy and will have to act after we have got their agreement to act.
I prize India's freedom and ability to act independent of anybody. Be it China, or US or Japan or Taiwan or any other tom-dick-and-harry country. And I hope there are others who prize the same and are not willing to sacrifice it on the altar of some deal or border agreement.

Look from Chinese perspective - they have been p!$$ing off India with impunity. For Allah's sake, they armed Bakistan with nukes and never paid any price ! They can do all anti-India activities they want - the only cost they have been paying so far is the upfront costs - not the fallout costs. China must realize that actions have consequences.

We need to get out of the defensive mode. I remember this line from a Jet Li movie (forgot the name): "What is the best defense ?" "Offensive defense".

Of the fault lines available - Xinjiang, Tibet, Inner Mongolia, Taiwan: PLA could violently crush the uprisings in Xinjiang/Tibet with impunity - they have no votebank nor human rights to worry about. But nevertheless, good areas to poke our nose in to keep the heat and do a reverse thousand cuts. Inner Mongolia has already been demographically saturated. Taiwan is the most prospective IMO. Dont believe in all the motherland BS. Thats the excuse sold for mango Cheeni abdul not to revolt against the "people's" republic. The elites must be hurt where it matters. Establishing military ties with Taiwan will directly hit the CCP in its core - tremendous H&D blow, giving "ideas" to lesser mortals. That is the stick India must wield. Its a low cost and very practical one. India must drive home the point that if China continues to faq with India, then Taiwan will be "lost forever". Imagine what would happen if Arihant's little sister Commiehant is gifted to Taiwan. More than the strategic implication, its the popular sentiment of the mango abduls which will stick it to the Beijing elites.

US will do its best to not let Taiwan fall to PRC - its a means to keep a growing power in check. If Taiwan does unite with PRC, that would be a tremendous lost opportunity for India. PRC would be "uncontrollable" - they would only p!$$ on India more intensely.

As for the argument that it will provoke the dlagon - they have armed Pakis with nooks - what other worse thing can they do ? The fallout for us is that the dlagon may accelerate its anti-India activities. They are sure to happen anyway even if we dont provoke them. The only difference is the time factor.

We dont need to grab Tibet - its very costly for us for very little benefit. How about we achieve our objectives (mainly water) in Tibet without setting a foot there ? Is that scenario very unthinkable ? Is there no way we cant make them an "offer they cant refuse" ?

In short, we need to threaten the core interests of China in order to negotiate better.

[TonyMontana]

This is a perfectly reasonable (indeed normal) attitude to take.

It follows from this that the CCP has to play its cards right to prevent a "peasant uprising"

Now these peasants want wealth and happiness. OK maybe they want more than one kid but that's a sacrifice they make for God and the CCP. Or do the peasants want Islands off the Japanese coast and the Indian territory of Arunachal Pradesh?

The average Chinese couldn't care less for these territories. No one knows where Arunachal Pradesh even is. As I said before, China is using these as "Cards".

Maybe they want both. I'm willing to bet that they want wealth and a good time more than wars. Trying to get those outside territories is going to bring the CCP a war and a war means a temporary slowing down of some economic benefits and a permanent change in some things. Especially if China occupies territory and needs to hold it in the face of insurgency like the US holds Iraq and Afghanistan.

Chances are that the CCP wil avoid war if possible. That is fine for everyone, but the CCP is an opaque organization that has imposed pointless and mindless conflict on others. If, as I have surmised, conflict can be damaging to the CCP there must be other special circumstances in which conflict is an advantage for the CCP provided the blowback on the economy can be kept down and the peasants kept happy and without rebellion. No time now - but I will speculate of what sort of motivation the CCP may have for that type of war.

This is my point exactly. You think the CCP is dumb or simple at your own peril. I will put money on that there will not be major conflicts if the CCP can help it.

So let me understand this line of thinking: nations are a form of coercion and one should not get rid of this coercion because coercion leads to improving standards of living. Is this correct? If so then why do we see increasing standard of living in India (chaotically free), but not in North Korea (ordered by coercion)?

Incorrect. These is coercion in all nation states. If you think the Tea party is a grass root movement, then you don't see coercion. Society is all about behaviour modification. There are rules. Rules are different for different games. But they are what you play along with. Like the pony tail thing when the Manchus were around.

[Dhiman]

So let me understand this line of thinking: nations are a form of coercion and one should not get rid of this coercion because coercion leads to improving standards of living. Is this correct? If so then why do we see increasing standard of living in India (chaotically free), but not in North Korea (ordered by coercion)?

Incorrect. These is coercion in all nation states. If you think the Tea party is a grass root movement, then you don't see coercion. Society is all about behaviour modification. There are rules. Rules are different for different games. But they are what you play along with. Like the pony tail thing when the Manchus were around.

Interesting:

Nation == coersion
Religion == control
Society == behavior modification.

And you would gladly allow anyone to modify your behavior, control and coerce you in exchange for your increasing standard of living. Good for you! CCP must be enjoying itself having reduced the population into drones who thinks like a drones

[Pratyush]

And, I thought setting them free of bondage so that they are all able to realise the potential inherent in them was the way of improving the standard of living of a population.

[Pulikeshi]

Incorrect. These is coercion in all nation states. If you think the Tea party is a grass root movement, then you don't see coercion. Society is all about behaviour modification. There are rules. Rules are different for different games. But they are what you play along with. Like the pony tail thing when the Manchus were around.

Heck even the last Emperor Puyi did not sport the Manchu Queue - he became Han
The indignity the Han had to suffer under the unknown Manchu for almost 300 years

So, your theory is that - coercion has achieved the maximal land and benefits to China.
Internal, it is hard to dispute that indeed these have been achieved no matter the costs or sustainability.

How do you feel this will work outside China - in Africa, South/East Asia, Europe, America, India, etc?
So, your theory is coercion works on these folks as well?

[Dhiman]

And, I thought setting them free of bondage so that they are all able to realise the potential inherent in them was the way of improving the standard of living of a population.

That is true in China also (Deng's market reforms giving people more economic freedom), but along with that if someone can brainwash the population into thinking that it is coercion, control, and behavior modification that is leading to increasing standard of living, then their control over the country and population will gain credibility and legitimacy.

[RajeshA]

Interesting:

Nation == coersion
Religion == control
Society == behavior modification.

And you would gladly allow anyone to modify your behavior, control and coerce you in exchange for your increasing standard of living. Good for you! CCP must be enjoying itself having reduced the population into drones who thinks like a drones

Now where did I leave my remote control!

[Pulikeshi]

Here is a simple example of what coercion does to the human mind:

Coercion crazed Chinese Man

(****Not work friendly****)

At least this guy is not one of those meat cleaver wielding chaps who went after children.
All one needs to do is google for it to find bunch of such incidents.

[RajeshA]

Here is a simple example of what coercion does to the human mind:
Coercion crazed Chinese Man

I think CPC makes much better robots than Japanese!

[Lalmohan]

I love Comerade Tony's sense of humour, (and no doubt his handler's). I raise a glass of Tsing-Tao to you (both)!

There is an arguement borne out by x-000 years of Chinese history that the Han people prefer autocracy to freedom of thought and expression - in that context, coercion is logical to the Han mindset. to the wildly anarchic and chaotic free thinking Indian, such political straight jackets don't hold much attraction. No doubt we have other forms of 'coercion', but clearly we differ on the model by which we prefer to run our civilisations.

i think that the CCP can actually afford to be less overtly aggressive and still be at the helm of a great nation, and perhaps even have friendly rivalry with India, Japan and the United States in a more stable world order. Whilst the Chinese civilisation may be in tune with this thought, the CCP does not appear to be, and perhaps will not until it outgrows the 'barrell of a gun' mindset of Mao-ism.

As Shiv said, many Indians admire Chinese culture, and no doubt it is reciprocated. We remain annoyed at your encouragement of the rabid dog next door to bite us and wish that you become more comfortable with your boundaries and your minorities. If you wish Tibetans to take more pride in being Chinese (and not Han), perhaps they need to be treated with a bit more respect and dignity? That's not going to change until the chauvanistic side of your civilisation (even beyond the CCP) gets calmed down. The question is, will it be?

[RajeshA]

If you wish Tibetans to take more pride in being Chinese (and not Han), perhaps they need to be treated with a bit more respect and dignity?

Tibetans are an Indian Minority!

[svinayak]

Incorrect. These is coercion in all nation states. If you think the Tea party is a grass root movement, then you don't see coercion. Society is all about behaviour modification. There are rules. Rules are different for different games. But they are what you play along with. Like the pony tail thing when the Manchus were around.

Do you looke like this



He does not have a ponytail. He is not doing this under coercion

[Karan Dixit]

I think that is Tony Montana celebrating China's claim on South China Sea.

[AKalam]

What is the guarantee that even if CPC leadership of PRC/PLA, once forced to accept a multi-party system as destiny, will be any different in managing the destiny and affairs of the Han Chinese ethnic majority of China and the Chinese state? There is no guarantee, but it is hoped and assumed that a pluralistic leadership will be easier to deal with than the current short sighted CPC leadership who is accountable to none other than its select coteries of internal functionaries.

The Achilles heels of CPC are the following:

- CPC needs to maintain Mandate of Heaven by providing 10% growth rate and continue to bring the poor Han Chinese out of poverty and for this they are dependent on the West to transfer wealth and technology.

This can be made difficult once manufacturing starts moving to greener pastures in cheaper labor countries within and outside Asia and by empowering the dissidents and the dissatisfied losers among the majority Han Chinese community, who are increasingly unhappy with power and wealth being concentrated in friends/relatives/crony of an increasingly nervous CPC leadership, under pressure from domestic and international scene.

Using Uighur or Tibetan (Inner Mongolia has only 10% Mongolian population) levers may not work, as they are small marginalized outsiders within a vast Han population of 1.2 billion and Han demographic invasion has already reached sufficient level in both XUAR and TUAR to achieve Han majority in these regions, although they are mainly concentrated in cities and towns. Trying to stoke the "splittist" forces will help the CPC use Han chauvinist Nationalism as a unifying and stabilizing factor, the Han being a target and under siege by the world, which is not the case, but its rather the CPC under siege. The key is to focus on majority Han empowerment of dissidents who want greater democracy and empowerment of Han masses and eventually a multi-party system. The challenge will be to recruit Western leadership and media as a willing participant to breakdown CPC power as it worked to challenge and breakdown Soviet Union during the cold war using propaganda tools such as Radio Free Europe in Eastern Europe.

- Western leadership is sold on the idea of rising PRC being a responsible, well behaving power that will manage Asia and will continue to follow the white man's leadership, under the authoritarian CPC leadership.

This myth can be broken by highlighting the current trend of friction with PRC's neighbors and other global hot spots of humanitarian crisis such as Sudan (please note US/West is no angel in this regard, but the target here is CPC), Zimbabwe etc. Partnership with Western leadership and global media powerhouses are essential for this endeavor.

- CPC, being an authoritarian leadership, is more comfortable dealing with other authoritarian leadership, such as Pakistan Military, Burmese Military etc.

The rable can be roused in the main majority body politic of these countries, again using appropriate means, to empower them against non-representative leadership bodies that can be easily influenced and bought over by CPC. In both Pakistan and Burma, an ethnic majority Punjabi and Burman rule over the minorities using an Army under their control, so instead of concentrating on forces of separatism, which will make the Army stronger (using Islamism or Buddhism as unifying tools), the target should be to empower the democratic forces within the majority ethnic groups such as the Punjabi's and Burman's that can neutralize the power of the armed forces that are being used as CPC tools.

- CPC, being an opaque power, can bribe and buy influence at will at the corridors of power in democratic leadership of countries such as US, EU, India, Japan, Taiwan etc. and by economic coercion using economic dependence as a tool.

This lobbying effort must be countered with equal or more counter lobbying effort again in partnership with Western powers who are increasingly loosing their economic ground in competition with the CPC led PRC.

Militarily it will be difficult to counter a rising CPC for India or the US, (except for ensuring a new clear deterrent MAD force), as this seems to be CPC focus, but it is vulnerable against a sustained global informative propaganda effort that will put a global spotlight on the CPC to reveal its hidden activities and increasingly identify itself as it really is, a dangerous and destabilizing force that is detrimental for the 1.2 billion Han Chinese in the long term, as well as it is for the region and the world at large. The parallels to the rising Soviet Union is there, the difference is that CPC has learned from the Soviet pit falls, embraced free market and is slowly evolving into a fascist single party state.

CPC leadership, by concentrating on selfish material gains for the Han Chinese, at the expense of other regional population and the rest of world, disregarding all notions of civilized, acceptable and reasonable rules and norms, may think that it is doing a favor to its constituent, the Han Chinese, but in reality it is just trying to enrich its small number of leadership and their cronies (relatives/friends/party-men) and to continue their hold on privilege and power in PRC, by sacrificing the long term interest of the 1.2 billion Han Chinese, just as the Soviet communist party ruined the prospect of the ethnic Russian nation (suffering in Russia and trapped as minorities in many former Soviet countries) and the streak of authoritarianism continues there to this day under strong men like Putin, who are needed to keep the robber baron's under control. But Russians are, over time, becoming a normal responsible power, instead of pursuing the imperial agenda it had during its Soviet days. The hope is that a future democratic China, where the CPC gives way for a multi-party system will make the Han Chinese a responsible regional and global player, playing by the rules and contributing to regional and global stability, instead of creating conflicts and destabilization's by pursuing an apparent imperial agenda for the short term material gain of the 1.2 billion Han Chinese (sacrificing the long term prospect), which in reality is for the interest of a small minority (to keep their hold on power and wealth), which is the CPC leadership. But how many Rolls Royce and Gucci bags do people need, someday these material things are bound to seem pointless.

Democracy is not the best in all situations, but to break down rogue entities like the CPC and its other regional international functionaries in other countries, I believe it is the perfect medicine that the people of the world (within PRC, Asia and the world) can rally around as a worthy and achievable goal.

CPC has learned from the Soviet experiences, they will avoid a break down of the maximal PRC land territory, as Han Chinese are already majority in all autonomous regions and they will not be drawn into mistaken adventures like Afghanistan, but they are vulnerable in other ways. The secret of its strength that made it rise, is also the seed of its downfall I believe, that is, authoritarianism of a single party system.

[RajeshA]

AKalam ji,

The 10% growth rates that are important for the CPC to retain its Mandate of Heaven can be seriously threatened if PRC loses its privileged/free access to world markets.

That could happen if it is shown that CPC/PLA is extensively abusing human rights and PRC is being overly aggressive with its neighbors.

If you don't show the world, that PRC has many weak spots, nobody in the world would come to the idea of poking into them.