Bharat Rakshak

Cyrano wrote: ↑15 Oct 2025 15:36 Good Gupta ji,
Keep digging with an open mind to understand and as a truth seeker. If need be, start from first principles. And you will discover very interesting things about CO2 and climate change.

I have discovered over the past decade and more that there exists no evidence that can persuade a climate change denier. There is also a set of bogus science like that invoked by RFK Jr to justify vaccine skepticism that the climate skeptic can draw upon.

Rest assured that I am not trying to persuade you or anyone. When I read something that fits on a BRF thread, I post it, it might be useful to someone.

About Hossenfelder’s video - don’t misunderstand it. For example, most people have an explanation of how an airplane wing generates lift. As SciAm explains:

…. accounts of lift exist on two separate levels of abstraction: the technical and the nontechnical. They are complementary rather than contradictory, but they differ in their aims. One exists as a strictly mathematical theory, a realm in which the analysis medium consists of equations, symbols, computer simulations and numbers. There is little, if any, serious disagreement as to what the appropriate equations or their solutions are. The objective of technical mathematical theory is to make accurate predictions and to project results that are useful to aeronautical engineers engaged in the complex business of designing aircraft.

But by themselves, equations are not explanations, and neither are their solutions. There is a second, nontechnical level of analysis that is intended to provide us with a physical, commonsense explanation of lift. The objective of the nontechnical approach is to give us an intuitive understanding of the actual forces and factors that are at work in holding an airplane aloft. This approach exists not on the level of numbers and equations but rather on the level of concepts and principles that are familiar and intelligible to nonspecialists.

It is on this second, nontechnical level where the controversies lie. Two different theories are commonly proposed to explain lift, and advocates on both sides argue their viewpoints in articles, in books and online. The problem is that each of these two nontechnical theories is correct in itself. But neither produces a complete explanation of lift, one that provides a full accounting of all the basic forces, factors and physical conditions governing aerodynamic lift, with no issues left dangling, unexplained or unknown. Does such a theory even exist?

https://www.scientificamerican.com/vide ... n-the-air/

Trying to provide non-technical explanations of the phenomena predicted by the mathematical equations of physics often fails, in that such explanation leaves something out. Intuitive physics models are guides to heuristics that the human mind can handle.

—-
Last, while an entire government of a significant country like the US being in climate change denial is serious, the situation is such that individual opinion doesn’t matter. Those affected by climate change are grappling with it, not worrying that their particular experience is “anecdotal”. And enough hew to the science that the green/renewable energy market is gaining momentum and will eventually displace the fossil fuel economy. So Xi and Modi acknowledge climate change, and the countries have policies accordingly. As does the European Union. As do most countries of note. Climate change deniers are in the pleasant position having the irrelevance of flat earthers. Mostly. In the US, they will be the cause of the US falling behind.

Even in the US, insurers are incorporating climate change modeling, without the government requiring it, because they see their “anecdotal” losses.

The first trial of the China-Europe Arctic route completed successfully, apparently without icebreakers (see the China thread).

China tests an express route to Europe through a thawing Arctic
https://www.politico.eu/article/china-t ... te-change/

China is sending the Istanbul Bridge container ship on an 18-day trip from Ningbo-Zhoushan port — the world's largest — to Felixstowe in the U.K. on Sept. 20, accompanied by ice breakers. The goal is not a one-off voyage — that's been done before — but to establish a regular service via Russia’s Northern Sea Route linking multiple ports in Asia and Europe.

“The larger picture is that the Arctic is opening up,” said Malte Humpert, senior fellow and founder of the Arctic Institute, a Washington-based think tank that studies Arctic security. “Twenty years ago it was frozen. But now that it’s melting and something is opening up, there’s interest.”

For Humpert, the impact may be bigger than shipping schedules. “The Arctic is the first region where climate change is changing the geopolitical map. If we didn't have climate change, we wouldn't be talking. Russia would not be producing oil and gas in the Arctic. China would not be sending container ships through the Arctic.”

“It’s the first large region on the globe where climate change is rapidly and actively changing the geopolitical dynamics — because of resources, access to shipping routes, and because a new region is suddenly accessible.”

https://www.dailysabah.com/business/tra ... rctic-trip

A Chinese container ship carrying the name "Istanbul Bridge" has completed a maiden journey through the Arctic to a U.K. port, state-run news agency Xinhua reported, reducing in half the usual time of transit for the electric vehicles and solar panels aboard destined for Europe.

The Istanbul Bridge's voyage, originally expected to take 18 days, was delayed by two days due to a storm off the coast of Norway, but the ship still reached Europe earlier than the 40 to 50 days it takes freighters going through the Suez Canal or around the Cape of Good Hope.

The new Northern Sea Route, running entirely through Arctic waters and within Russia's exclusive economic zone, can now be navigated by ships due to global warming.

The Arctic routes opening up are going to change dynamics in the Indian Ocean.

Chokehold on Malacca to strangle Chinese exports, Singapore as a transhipment hub, importance of Suez and even to a certain extent importance of Panama Canal for spring between West Coast and Europe will change.

Of course, declining prosperity in Western Europe will also change dynamics.

Malacca is the chokehold for Chinese imports of oil.

The problem is not about the science behind climate change. There is enough study done about C02 emissions and its effect on the earth retaining heat. In fact many studies during Covid showed reverse effect when the traffic came to a standstill. The problem is how it is used to beat developing economies. On our side we do need to make sure we are preserving our natural resources but firmly stand up against geopolitical thuggery at the same time. We need to find solutions that will scale and work for us and not follow western dictates.

williams wrote: ↑16 Oct 2025 08:09 The problem is not about the science behind climate change. There is enough study done about C02 emissions and its effect on the earth retaining heat. In fact many studies during Covid showed reverse effect when the traffic came to a standstill. The problem is how it is used to beat developing economies. On our side we do need to make sure we are preserving our natural resources but firmly stand up against geopolitical thuggery at the same time. However we need to find solutions that will scale and work for us and not follow western dictates.

Well said. I agree. I will add more to the binary thinking that there are only two kinds of people (or three but still finite number of kinds) - those who believe in AGW and those who don't (or the third category - those who are skeptical AKA question AGW alarmists).

The scale is continuous. Prof. Freeman Dyson, one who should have gotten a Nobel in Physics, was a skeptic. I doubt any of the physicists on BRF are in the same league as Freeman Dyson.

^^^^ The big upcoming challenge, IMO, is the European Union mandates on decarbonized manufacturing. I think the Indian timetable and the European timetable to achieve certain milestones do not match - India taking longer than the Europeans want.

williams wrote: ↑16 Oct 2025 08:09 The problem is not about the science behind climate change. There is enough study done about C02 emissions and its effect on the earth retaining heat. In fact many studies during Covid showed reverse effect when the traffic came to a standstill. The problem is how it is used to beat developing economies. On our side we do need to make sure we are preserving our natural resources but firmly stand up against geopolitical thuggery at the same time. We need to find solutions that will scale and work for us and not follow western dictates.

Aren't we forgetting about methane. This does more damage than C02 which is quite natural for earth to have fires and create C02 in large quantities. The C02 due to man burning gasoline/petrol/diesel/aviation kerosene etc. machinery and then there is Coal fired power plants. But vegetation absorbs C02 in a natural cycle.

Methane due to cows is quite a damper on climate change. This is not even talked about, strange.