Bharat Rakshak

The "efficacy" benchmark appears to be more of a marketing gimmick than anything else by pharma companies.

Some worry some math ..
I am using data/graphs for USA..

For India, the B117 strain is not there, but if it gets in there, it could be a really worry some and may require steps like lockdown or what-ever scientists recommend -- has to be watched and monitored .

In USA by mid March or so, this may be the dominant strain.
Math: assume if we have about 10 cases today, with this R factor

1000+ daily cases on Mar23
2000+ daily cases on Mar31



This is why people are sounding Alarm.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 2.full.pdf

Government of India Announces Free Flag of India #CoronaVaccine to :

》Oman : 1 lakh doses
》CARICOM countries : 5 lakh doses
》Nicaragua : 2 lakh doses
》Pacific Island states : 2 lakh doses

Today 4.91 lakhs

Might cross 5 lakhs by tomorrow

vijayk wrote:Today 4.91 lakhs

Might cross 5 lakhs by tomorrow

Picking up pace! Hopefully, we can cross 10 lakh per day faster than 5!

vijayk wrote:Today 4.91 lakhs

Might cross 5 lakhs by tomorrow

Is there a vaccination tracker? I have been looking for one without luck.

Uttam wrote:

vijayk wrote:Today 4.91 lakhs

Might cross 5 lakhs by tomorrow

Is there a vaccination tracker? I have been looking for one without luck.

https://twitter.com/outbreak_india

This account has been doing pretty good

Today's link

https://twitter.com/outbreak_india/stat ... 5399538704



Total Vaccinated: 28,47,608 Jan-27 4,91,629

Amber G. wrote:Some worry some math ..
I am using data/graphs for USA..

For India, the B117 strain is not there, but if it gets in there, it could be a really worry some and may require steps like lockdown or what-ever scientists recommend -- has to be watched and monitored .

In USA by mid March or so, this may be the dominant strain.
Math: assume if we have about 10 cases today, with this R factor

1000+ daily cases on Mar23
2000+ daily cases on Mar31

There is a lot of nonsense going around with B117. The only worry, if at all, is that the pFizer and moderna vaccine may *not* work and then the world has to rely on India's Covaxin or Chinese Sinovac which includes mandatory anal swab tests. If it is later, then even I will be definitely worried. Hello Uighur camps!

A section of US elites wants continuous lockdown. There are several chorporates that benefit from the lockdown. They want lockdown. Any data that suggests opening up the economy will be vehemently fought and contested. New strains of FUD will be rampant.

Mathematically your graphs look very valid. In fact., it looks benign to what I am going to state. In the next 50 years, 3-5 billion humans will die. That is 3-5 *billion* humans. Maybe more. That includes me.

If the B117 strain is so different, then it should be called a new virus. SARS-COV-2 itself is not too different from SARS. So B117 is so totally different that it is both high transmissivity and has high virulence, then that is a new virus. Since Covaxin protects against B117, it is not a major concern. Unless one talks to chorporates and their pimps in media.

vijayk wrote: https://twitter.com/outbreak_india

This account has been doing pretty good

Today's link

https://twitter.com/outbreak_india/stat ... 5399538704

Thank you.

There has not much been much concern regarding the B117 strain when it comes to vaccine resistance. Both Pfizer and Moderna tested their vaccines against this strain and they both work. The concern thus far is with the South African strain.

There is a much bigger concern regarding the P1 variant from Brazil. This one seems to be defying heard immunity.

Reinfections More Likely With New Coronavirus Variants, Evidence Suggests

Back in April, COVID-19 hit the city of Manaus, Brazil, extremely hard. In fact, the outbreak there was arguably the worst in the world. One study, published in the journal Science, estimated that so many people were infected that the city could have reached herd immunity — that the outbreak there slowed down because up to 76% of the population had protection against the virus.

Now the city of Manaus is seeing another massive surge in cases. This time around, the outbreak appears even larger than the first one, says Marcus Vinicius Lacerda, an infectious disease doctor at the Fundação de Medicina Tropical Doutor Heitor Vieira Dourado in Manaus. "You have much more people becoming infected and that includes people inside their [newly diagnosed patients'] households," he says.

Last week, scientists in Brazil detected a new genetic variant of the coronavirus that has been circulating in Manaus since at least December and is likely fueling the second surge. Called P.1, the variant has a set of about 20 mutations, including three mutations that are particularly concerning. These mutations could make the virus more infectious and could possibly decrease the efficacy of vaccines against the variant.

Uttam wrote:There is a much bigger concern regarding the P1 variant from Brazil. This one seems to be defying heard immunity.

Reinfections More Likely With New Coronavirus Variants, Evidence Suggests

Back in April, COVID-19 hit the city of Manaus, Brazil, extremely hard. In fact, the outbreak there was arguably the worst in the world. One study, published in the journal Science, estimated that so many people were infected that the city could have reached herd immunity — that the outbreak there slowed down because up to 76% of the population had protection against the virus.

Now the city of Manaus is seeing another massive surge in cases. This time around, the outbreak appears even larger than the first one, says Marcus Vinicius Lacerda, an infectious disease doctor at the Fundação de Medicina Tropical Doutor Heitor Vieira Dourado in Manaus. "You have much more people becoming infected and that includes people inside their [newly diagnosed patients'] households," he says.

Last week, scientists in Brazil detected a new genetic variant of the coronavirus that has been circulating in Manaus since at least December and is likely fueling the second surge. Called P.1, the variant has a set of about 20 mutations, including three mutations that are particularly concerning. These mutations could make the virus more infectious and could possibly decrease the efficacy of vaccines against the variant.

Yikes. I had just heard about this variant a few days ago, it already sounds worse than the SA variant. Hope reinfections are less severe.

Why is India reporting a sudden spike in cases and death today?

vijayk wrote: Total Vaccinated: 28,47,608 Jan-27 4,91,629

no.s different from , https://www.mohfw.gov.in/
that says as of Jan 28 8 am , it was
Total Vaccination - 23,55,979 (3,26,499)
where are you getting ur no.s from?

ArjunPandit wrote:

vijayk wrote: Total Vaccinated: 28,47,608 Jan-27 4,91,629

no.s different from , https://www.mohfw.gov.in/
that says as of Jan 28 8 am , it was
Total Vaccination - 23,55,979 (3,26,499)
where are you getting ur no.s from?

last date is not updated on Mohfw ... you can see it here. Jan 27 data is 2355979

ArjunPandit wrote:

vijayk wrote: Total Vaccinated: 28,47,608 Jan-27 4,91,629

no.s different from , https://www.mohfw.gov.in/
that says as of Jan 28 8 am , it was
Total Vaccination - 23,55,979 (3,26,499)
where are you getting ur no.s from?

Those numbers are from a poster on twitter. See the link in one of the previous posts. Those numbers seems be correct. Here is the latest from TOI.

Looks like MOHFW numbers are from 8am and therefore showing the previous day's total.

Novavax’s Vaccine Works Well — Except on Variant First Found in South Africa

An early analysis in Britain found that the vaccine had an efficacy rate of nearly 90 percent. But in a small South Africa trial, the efficacy rate dropped to just under 50 percent.

this is the global no. India is rising fairly fast and fairly well..
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
someone please put it on twitter as we progress relative to teh world..btw must also highlight the efficacy of sin--o-vax

DavidD wrote:There has not much been much concern regarding the B117 strain when it comes to vaccine resistance. Both Pfizer and Moderna tested their vaccines against this strain and they both work. The concern thus far is with the South African strain.

This has been stated repeatedly in various forums, including Biden admin's last detail covid related brief. South African (and I thing they talked about Brazilian one too) was of concern (in lab environment) but even then the effectiveness (according to them) was 50% or better (Moderna the numbers some (who I trust) said/estimated was 70+%) ... Not to mention that they can ramp up and, if need be, can make and provide booster shot.
The main problem here is not the vaccines because they are ineffective unless people take it, and one has to increase the rate the vaccines are being distributed. (This may happen, I hope pretty soon).

US is also looking at AZ, Novavax (and Johnson & Johnson too) in near future. I believe they may have stockpile of 600 million doses by the end of spring but distributing it will take time. Both AZ and Novavax have deal with SII India for production.
(Meanwhile countries like Canada, Brazil, South Africa are starting to order India's covid-shield)

Uttam wrote:Novavax’s Vaccine Works Well — Except on Variant First Found in South Africa

An early analysis in Britain found that the vaccine had an efficacy rate of nearly 90 percent. But in a small South Africa trial, the efficacy rate dropped to just under 50 percent.

As said before, this vaccine also has deal with SII - which can produce billions of shots if/when needed.
Fauci talked about Novavax (may be it may get EUA in USA fast) and AZ.

(Meanwhile countries like Canada, Brazil, South Africa are starting to order India's covid-shield)

Has there been a release of the efficacy numbers from the phase 3 trials for Bharat biotechs vaccine or is it still too early?

Mod Note

Your post has been deleted; we received multiple reports on the post and have determined that it does not meet posting standards.

You may have valid technical points to make, but you're on a forum where you have to interact with others, and therefore the tone of posting is just as important. The manner in which you put down other posters is neither appropriate nor welcome here.

Tanaji wrote:

(Meanwhile countries like Canada, Brazil, South Africa are starting to order India's covid-shield)

Has there been a release of the efficacy numbers from the phase 3 trials for Bharat biotechs vaccine or is it still too early?

The data (more and more), from what I know will be shared..meanwhile I know some very reputable doctors (including two of my family members) have opted (most have no choice and they got what others were getting in their center) for Covaxin and have gotten the shot few days ago. They have said "Both are supposed to give high protection" and did not seem to be concerned about which vaccine they got.
Also we will have a "fairly massive" data about efficacy numbers when we have this vaccine tried in "trial/monitor" mode. (Since there are no questions about it's safety it should be okay to take this vaccine (vs no vaccine or waiting for the "right" vaccine).

ICMR or NIV had a pre-print published yesterday which claimed Covaxin worked (about the same as other varients) against the UK variant - Based on 38 blood sera samples from people who retuned from UK. (neutralisation capacity of the antibodies against the UK variant was similar to that of the homologous variant)

Anecdotally it seems that the second dose of Moderna produces much stronger side effects (aches etc) than the first dose.

Tanaji wrote:Has there been a release of the efficacy numbers from the phase 3 trials for Bharat biotechs vaccine or is it still too early?

Too early. Best case is sometime in March for the data. And it may be very delayed both as the epidemic is waning in India and volunteers who suspect they received a placebo are dropping out to get vaccinated.

Bharat Phase III Covid-19 vaccine investigators on alert for dropouts

ArjunPandit wrote:this is the global no. India is rising fairly fast and fairly well..
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
someone please put it on twitter as we progress relative to teh world..btw must also highlight the efficacy of sin--o-vax

(India already has more shots than countries in Europe/Canada etc. - The data is total shots (not per population) so for India, we have to speed it fast.. about 10x .. and at present we must be focused on that.

Also as India just said in UN - we are safe only if the whole world is safe - it is really remarkable that now India is leading and is ready to provide to other countries in Africa, South America, Asia .. and even in Canada)

at 5 million a day it will still take roughly 250+ days for the first shot. While the overall timeline seems late, i think that the virus will be largely contained due to vaccine by year end..may be docs here can comment better..i dont have any expertise in this field so will defer to the experts' opinions

I don’t get it! Why is EU asking AstraZeneca to supply vaccine when it’s been made in India. Is this pure Brexit fallout?
Added later, seems like some contractual issues.

Covaxin phase-3 trial results in November 2021, says NICED

The results of the phase-III trial of indigenously developed coronavirus vaccine candidate, Covaxin, will be available in November 2021, top officials of the National Institute of Cholera and Enteric Diseases (ICMR-NICED) in Kolkata have said. They added that the interim report may be available by May 2021 at the earliest.

Analysing the data will take time

Second dose of Ph3 trials concluded on 22nd jan on 13000 volunteers. Data gone for analysis. Expect an interim report in may.
https://www.livemint.com/news/india/bha ... 63613.html

Oxford vaccine has a 6 month shelf life, once produced. Buying more vaccines than you can possibly administer in a given period is a bad idea. Expect more donations.

Amber G. wrote:

DavidD wrote:There has not much been much concern regarding the B117 strain when it comes to vaccine resistance. Both Pfizer and Moderna tested their vaccines against this strain and they both work. The concern thus far is with the South African strain.

This has been stated repeatedly in various forums, including Biden admin's last detail covid related brief. South African (and I thing they talked about Brazilian one too) was of concern (in lab environment) but even then the effectiveness (according to them) was 50% or better (Moderna the numbers some (who I trust) said/estimated was 70+%) ... Not to mention that they can ramp up and, if need be, can make and provide booster shot.
The main problem here is not the vaccines because they are ineffective unless people take it, and one has to increase the rate the vaccines are being distributed. (This may happen, I hope pretty soon).

US is also looking at AZ, Novavax (and Johnson & Johnson too) in near future. I believe they may have stockpile of 600 million doses by the end of spring but distributing it will take time. Both AZ and Novavax have deal with SII India for production.
(Meanwhile countries like Canada, Brazil, South Africa are starting to order India's covid-shield)

I don't think any of them (except Novavax) is doing trials where the SA strain is prevelant, so I don't know where people are coming up with efficacy numbers. My understanding of this is that people are just looking at neutralizing antibody counts to estimate efficacy. That Moderna can arrive at 70% efficacy based on what they say is 1/6th the antibody count against the SA variant compared to the initial variant seems to be an inexact science to me.

Uttam wrote:Novavax’s Vaccine Works Well — Except on Variant First Found in South Africa

An early analysis in Britain found that the vaccine had an efficacy rate of nearly 90 percent. But in a small South Africa trial, the efficacy rate dropped to just under 50 percent.

It is well within the WHO limit for efficacy numbers.

EU has signed contract with AstraZeneca for 300 million doses with option of 100 million more doses. EU can also donate these vaccines to low or middle income countries. This agreement is also based on no-profit vaccine pricing.

Through the contract, all Member States are able to purchase 300 million doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine, with an option for a further 100 million doses, to be distributed on a population-based pro- rata basis. The contract also allows the Member States to donate their vaccine doses to lower and middle income countries or to re-direct them to other European countries.

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/pressco ... /ip_21_302

J&J says its Covid vaccine is 66% effective, but the single shot may fall short against variants

* Johnson & Johnson said its one-dose coronavirus vaccine was 72% effective in protecting against Covid-19 in the United States.
* The vaccine, however, was less potent in other regions, it said.
* J&J said the vaccine was 85% effective in preventing severe disease four weeks after vaccination in all adults.

The level of protection varied by region, J&J said, with the vaccine demonstrating 66% effectiveness overall, 72% in the United States, 66% in Latin America and 57% in South Africa after four weeks.

J&J said the vaccine was 85% effective in preventing severe disease four weeks after vaccination in all adults. The vaccine offered complete protection against Covid-related hospitalizations four weeks after vaccination, the company said.

disha wrote:

Amber G. wrote:Some worry some math ..
I am using data/graphs for USA..

For India, the B117 strain is not there, but if it gets in there, it could be a really worry some and may require steps like lockdown or what-ever scientists recommend -- has to be watched and monitored .

In USA by mid March or so, this may be the dominant strain.
Math: assume if we have about 10 cases today, with this R factor

1000+ daily cases on Mar23
2000+ daily cases on Mar31

...

Mathematically your graphs look very valid.

...

If the B117 strain is so different, then it should be called a new virus. SARS-COV-2 itself is not too different from SARS. So B117 is so totally different that it is both high transmissivity and has high virulence, then that is a new virus. Since Covaxin protects against B117, it is not a major concern. Unless one talks to chorporates and their pimps in media.

The statement about graphs looking very valid:

From the experience of the past year with case count and deaths numbers, the graph of either of those parameters has simply not followed an exponential curve anywhere in the world. At worst, it seems the daily case or deaths counts have increased linearly, which means the cumulative counts have at worst shown quadratic trends. An exponential curve would have beaten the pants and socks off a quadratic in very short order. So it seems making predictions modeled on exponential curves would be unrealistic.

The second quoted part above - yes, if the B117 is more transmissive, more deadly, and unresponsive as far as the current vaccine goes, then it could well be considered a new virus. Having said that, I seriously doubt that it is not already in India. The numbers may not show it, but that need not mean that it's not there. Maybe it's now unable to make headway in India, which is why the numbers aren't showing it up. That would be the best case scenario. Need to wait and see.

Amber G. wrote:^^^ @Rudradev - I have not but people in my family and many people I know have. One of very good resource is FB (or whattsapp type) groups of our schools alumni - (IIT in bayarea) and there are others like "Desi's in xxx area). MEA and Indian Consulates (use twitter or email - if you can't find specific information on the webpages) are quite good too and people are quite responsive. Mostly travel has been quite smooth and hassle free (relatively speaking for 2020)
(If you have OCI, or US citizenship with a valid visa (tourists are still not allowed but visiting family etc are now ok) it has become quite smooth .. make sure you have negative PCR test (take a paper copy or photo with you) etc

Thank you very much @AmberG ji, this was good information and I was able to travel to India and back successfully with this in mind.

At the India end they require documentation of a negative PCR test taken within 72 hours of your flight. That can get a bit tight (I had to drive out-of-state to a neighbouring state where test results were available more quickly, and even then I only received the PDF of my test results while driving to the airport for my flight to India). Other than that, just the usual stuff-- Passport, OCI, proof of US address, proof of address in India.

At the US end (coming back in) they did not require anything at all.

Uttam wrote:J&J says its Covid vaccine is 66% effective, but the single shot may fall short against variants

* Johnson & Johnson said its one-dose coronavirus vaccine was 72% effective in protecting against Covid-19 in the United States.
* The vaccine, however, was less potent in other regions, it said.
* J&J said the vaccine was 85% effective in preventing severe disease four weeks after vaccination in all adults.

The level of protection varied by region, J&J said, with the vaccine demonstrating 66% effectiveness overall, 72% in the United States, 66% in Latin America and 57% in South Africa after four weeks.

J&J said the vaccine was 85% effective in preventing severe disease four weeks after vaccination in all adults. The vaccine offered complete protection against Covid-related hospitalizations four weeks after vaccination, the company said.

Adding a bit more information from another source:

"
A team of scientists at the company were "elated" and "joyful" when they saw the results, Dr. Mathai Mammen, M.D., Ph.D., the global head of Janssen Research & Development, told ABC News.

We're a single shot ... And now we've produced data that say that our vaccine is highly effective, 85% effective against severe COVID, 100% effective against hospitalization or death," Mammen said.

Total Vaccination - 29,28,053 (5,72,060)
https://www.mohfw.gov.in

As I said, 28th count crossed 5 lakhs. Hope we keep same momentum on today too.

SII and Indian vaccine production is making news. Just shows how Indian companies if properly supported by GoI with large orders can beat even the Chinese at delivering scale.

I can see the disbelief that India giving out millions of doses worldwide within a month of approval, while TFTA Europe is busy fighting over every dose. SII invested because it knew GoI will order it. Allowed it to take risk and mass produce it earlier..

If only GoI does the same in defence..

Center has instructed states to start vaccinating Frontline workers from Feb 1st week (actually they mentioned Feb 1st itself)...good show in the picking up of pace of vaccination. Hoping to reach 10L/day by mid-Feb & if possible 5 Mil/day (50L) by end of March at least...of course earlier the better.

I think back in Dec, Bharat Biotech was saying that Ph-3 results will be out by March-April...disappointed to hear that it may take up to Nov. To be honest, the confidence in Covaxin is low in most people. I hope some sort of prelim results about efficacy will be released by March end...