2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

madhu · Post by **madhu** » 10 Nov 2020 17:39

srin wrote:Eating sweets is not good for health. Sweet selling should be banned till Nov 30.
Nothing to do with Diwali of course. Diwali is not just about sweets.
Health is critical.

also also ... lets ban lighting of diyas. Diyas causes global warming.
Nothing to do with Diwali of course. Diwali is not just Diyas.
keeping global warming under control is critical.

isubodh wrote:
Hari Seldon wrote:Cracker sales banned in Lucknow till Nov 30 following NGT order.
Some people are equating Diwali to Fireworks. I think that's irrational. We celebrate Diwali to welcome Rama to his kindom after exile of 14years and defeating Ravana. The streets are lit with diyas and colors of rangoli. So when did firework come in pic.
Also as a sensible person given we already have smoke filled cities why add more and also pay Chinese for it.
Diwali is much much bigger than fireworks.

well, why only hindu festivals are targeted is the question. i am ok with ban, if it is for all. but NGT/NGO/PETA and so on targets only Hindus in the name of environment, animal rights, women rights and so on that most of us are against.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 10 Nov 2020 17:42

What we really need is UCC.

Sicanta · Post by **Sicanta** » 10 Nov 2020 18:42

It is getting a bit close.

srin · Post by **srin** » 10 Nov 2020 18:57

What we really need is unelected bodies taking decisions that should be left to the democratically elected govt.
Look at Karnataka - from the time to ban crackers to remove the ban took 8 hours due to the protests, and that is how it should be. Can't do the same to NGT.

We also need a non-governmental Hindu body that is elected by hindus and kick the govt out of job of the administering temples and messing around with the Hindu beliefs.

kvraghav · Post by **kvraghav** » 10 Nov 2020 19:01

Bihar : NDA will stop at 115 is what i feel.

darshan · Post by **darshan** » 10 Nov 2020 19:11

BJP victory is trailer of upcoming local body polls and 2022 State assembly elections: Rupani
https://www.deshgujarat.com/2020/11/10/ ... ns-rupani/
...Different areas of Gujarat cast votes, different communities participated in this 8-seat by-polls. There were Patidar, Koli, Muslim, tribal influenced areas. We have not just won but won with huge victory. For example, margin in tribal populated Dang seat is unprecedented and never before. In Abdasa, Congress is not even on second number. An independent candidate is ahead of congress there.
...

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 10 Nov 2020 19:36

It is JDU's poor performance which is denting NDA in Bihar, BJP has done well. As expected once the rural boxes were tallied the results are getting much much closer, but whatever aspirations LJP had to be the "king makers" in BH is up in vapor. In one of the US threads someone mentioned about Twitter and its impact on Indian electorate, look at the Twitter campaigner Pushpam Priya Chaudhry and her Plurals Party, if the election were to be on Twitter she'd had as many seats as BJP or RJD but on the ground she lost to NOTA ! One thing is for sure, failure to get a simple majority by either party opens the possibility of horse trading.

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 10 Nov 2020 19:40

I think Bihar tally is going to be close, and then alliance (or 'horse trading') is going to happen. Any idea on the possible alliance chances for the BJP? The Congress already was planning to move their MLAs to tourist resorts as a 'just in case' measure.

kvraghav · Post by **kvraghav** » 10 Nov 2020 19:46

Manjhi is the crucial guy with 3 seats. There are 2 other Independents, 1 from BSP and 5 from MIM. I think congress can get MIM and BSP. That is 6 for them. Manjhi is the swing guy and might insist for CM.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 10 Nov 2020 19:47

TIMES NOW@TimesNow·46m

BJP has won 40 out of 58 seats in bypolls across 11 states. It is more like a mini referendum. Trend cannot be disregarded: @YRDeshmukh , Founder & Chief Editor C-Voter,

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 10 Nov 2020 19:47

The numbers are closer than what one is seeing on TV. 120 for NDA, 115 for MGB, 8 for others. But 5 of the 8 `others' are AIMIM leads/wins. If NDA slips by 2-3 more seats, we will see an MGB sarkar in Bihar.

kvraghav · Post by **kvraghav** » 10 Nov 2020 19:49

It will be MGB sarkar. Chirag has sunk NDA this time as per the Election commission website. RJD has increased the tally from 67 in the morning to 78 now.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 10 Nov 2020 19:52

TIMES NOW@TimesNow·46s
Owaisi will not support Mahagathbandhan, neither NDA:
@YRDeshmukh , Founder & Chief Editor C-Voter, tells Rahul Shivshankar and Padmaja Joshi.

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 10 Nov 2020 19:56

Over 40 seats have a margin of lead <5k votes with majority favoring RJD. Truth be told most expected a thorough trouncing of NDA in BH, so its been an impressive performance compared to what most pollsters had predicted. Yes, LJP definitely ate into JDU's vote share and hurt them more than RJD.

RajaRudra · Post by **RajaRudra** » 10 Nov 2020 19:59

One thing to note is CPIM winning.
Not so good for the county. Its a naxal group.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 10 Nov 2020 20:00

NDA can count only on the one independent and LJP if it is short of majority. So it better get at least 120. A simple majority would be even better.

The congis and opposition is spreading the rumours that LJP going alone is BJP's plan to cut down Nitish. It just makes no sense, especially after seeing the results. The lok sabha polls were always more important for BJP and it will not antagonize Nitish Kumar.

Chirag Paswan wanted to show his importance and he has. Never mind how many seats he got but look at what he has done to the NDA vote share.

Sicanta · Post by **Sicanta** » 10 Nov 2020 20:03

The Data Guy

NDA -: 120
MGB -: 115

Time -: 7.30 pm
Counting Percentage -: 81.70 %

Source: ECI

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 10 Nov 2020 20:05

AIMIM too must have hurt MGB a lot. The votes they took must be from MGB.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 10 Nov 2020 20:09

RajaRudra wrote:One thing to note is CPIM winning.
Not so good for the county. Its a naxal group.

may later translate to 1-2 seats in the RS from BH.

and maybe a similar number in the next lok sabha election.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 10 Nov 2020 20:13

106 confirmed for NDA.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 10 Nov 2020 20:22

RajaRudra wrote:One thing to note is CPIM winning.
Not so good for the county. Its a naxal group.

It is NOT CPIM, rather CPI(ML) - the naxalite party.
This time they came under the MGB, and contested 19 seats with RJD's backing.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 10 Nov 2020 20:27

110 confirmed wins for NDA.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 10 Nov 2020 20:40

all the BJP guys have gathered at nitishwa's house in patna.

is the opportunistic दल बदलू planning to bolt again.

he must be bargaining really hard for juicy central ministries.

Sicanta · Post by **Sicanta** » 10 Nov 2020 20:45

Himanta Biswa Sarma

@himantabiswa

Like any other religion, Hindus have the right to celebrate festivals. With improvement in #COVID19 situation in Assam,we plan no restrictions on celebration of #Diwali including use of #Firecrackers.

However, kindly remember, self-restraint is key to combat #COVID19

greatde · Post by **greatde** » 10 Nov 2020 20:46

MGB can form the government. VIP & HAM party can change alliance and join MGB, and there only for the money/fame.

BJP+JDU themselves will not reach the mark.

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 10 Nov 2020 20:52

It is not over yet, the results are still being solidified. In MP, so much for Digvijay Singhs claim that INC will win 20+ on its own. One thing is for sure that the country has immense faith on Narendra Modi, this when he is into his 6th year with a pandemic which has wreck havoc in people's lives and businesses . I think had it not been for the pandemic and the migrant crisis, Bihar would have been a one sided affair.

Sicanta · Post by **Sicanta** » 10 Nov 2020 20:56

NDA - 126 combined, MGB - 110 combined

86% votes counted

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 10 Nov 2020 21:02

greatde wrote:MGB can form the government. VIP & HAM party can change alliance and join MGB, and there only for the money/fame.

BJP+JDU themselves will not reach the mark.

point.

112 wins for NDA so far.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 10 Nov 2020 21:04

hanumadu wrote:
greatde wrote:MGB can form the government. VIP & HAM party can change alliance and join MGB, and there only for the money/fame.

BJP+JDU themselves will not reach the mark.
point.

112 wins for NDA so far.

where are you seeing the results? How many for MGB confirmed?

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 10 Nov 2020 21:06

The most interesting results, for me, are three.
a) The BJP seems to be doing extremely well, despite the JD(U) losing support significantly. What this means is that, with NiKu gone by 2025, we are going to see a BJP led Hindu front fighting the RJD led secular front. The BJP had better start building its own leader to take over from NiKu. As much as we dislike NiKu, the man has a significant amount of popularity [yes, despite his current losses]. Further, they have done extremely well in the bypolls, breaking into regions where they were hardly a presence. 2023 may see a BJP vs TRS fight in Telangana, with the Congress being a distant third.
b) The rise of the AIMIM in Bihar is worrying. They have started carving out a space for themselves in the Muslim heavy Seemanchal region, winning *5* seats. This is not good as this will exacerbate tensions significantly. This is also going to have significant effects in UP, and possibly Bengal. Assam is hard as the Muslim space is being taken by AIUDF. The scrap metal and slaughterhouse lobbies which were voting SP and were on the fence in western UP will now cross over to the AIUDF. Expect rise of tensions in UP and possibly Bengal as well.
c) The last one is probably the most significant thing. The Congress is practically finished, washed out everywhere, except where it is in coalition with others, or in niche regions like Chhattisgarh, or Hooda's pockets of Haryana. They are washed out in Gujarat, Manipur valley, Karnataka [Jayachandra losing Sira for the second time in succession shows how badly the Congress base is dented], and shockingly, Telangana! In Madhya Pradesh, they lost ~20 of the 28 seats which they held. Even in places like Lilong valley [Muslim dominated region of Manipur], it is independents who are taking the Muslim vote, not the Congress. What this says is that the Congress is on its death bed. They can only go in with a full coalition next time to challenge the BJP. From being a national party, the Congress is becoming a sub-regional, microscopic niche party, with a few geriatric leaders left.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 10 Nov 2020 21:06

As per NDTV
NDA 126
MGB 110
Other 7

Ashokk · Post by **Ashokk** » 10 Nov 2020 21:10

As per India TV on 15 - 20 seats the difference is less than 2000, thats why the counts are constantly changing.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 10 Nov 2020 21:12

vijayk wrote:
hanumadu wrote: point.

112 wins for NDA so far.
where are you seeing the results? How many for MGB confirmed?

cnn news 18. The wins are not being displayed but the anchor is saying them from time to time.

113 - 98 now.

greatde · Post by **greatde** » 10 Nov 2020 21:28

Shanmukh wrote:The rise of the AIMIM in Bihar is worrying. They have started carving out a space for themselves in the Muslim heavy Seemanchal region, winning *5* seats. This is not good as this will exacerbate tensions significantly. This is also going to have significant effects in UP, and possibly Bengal. Assam is hard as the Muslim space is being taken by AIUDF. The scrap metal and slaughterhouse lobbies which were voting SP and were on the fence in western UP will now cross over to the AIUDF. Expect rise of tensions in UP and possibly Bengal as well.

Congress and its allies are only stop-gap measure, till demographics favors them. That's 101 of politics. The rise of AIMIM is inevitable, and hopefully that brings clarity to Hindus.

Yet, AIMIM is working together with Congress, as they don't fight the entire state. Only in seats where BJP/allies cannot win, so either them or Congress are the default winners.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 10 Nov 2020 21:34

Hope now Modi/Shah make Powerplay in MH to put some of the scums in line now that Bihar is over and data shows BJP upward in every state.

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 10 Nov 2020 21:38

Long term the rise and rise of AIMIM and AIUDF is a good thing, they will sooner or later contest against Congress in many seats and eat into INC's beloved muslim vote bank. This will also put an end to the charade of pseudo-secularism in Indian politics.

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 10 Nov 2020 21:50

As of now, AIMIM is useful as a vote-cutter.

Anything can happen in poltoostan, but I can't imagine why Owaisi would support MGB when he is trying to claim their votebank.

Anyway, it looks like NDA is heading to a thin majority.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 10 Nov 2020 21:54

The performance of the communists is troubling. It can't be mere vote transfer due to being in MGB. They have a much better strike rate than the Congress.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 10 Nov 2020 21:58

nachiket wrote:The performance of the communists is troubling. It can't be mere vote transfer due to being in MGB. They have a much better strike rate than the Congress.

Most likely. They have some support ad organization earlier.

Morons of CON party have to throw out the Gandoos. Gandoos are like termites eating Congress from inside out: Their main support base is internation Islamic terrorists, Paki ISI, ISIS, Turkey, Xi Ping, CCP, Filthy progressives in US, BIF and scam media in Delhi. No public support

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 10 Nov 2020 22:01

Communists and INC are one, no need to differentiate between them