2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 10 Nov 2020 22:18

Quite a historic win in Bihar and all the bye-polls.
Lessons learned in Harayana.

IndraD, Do the UC still feel good about staying home?

SandeepA · Post by **SandeepA** » 10 Nov 2020 22:35

Best result is the Dubbak win for BJP. This effectively means that its going to be TRS vs BJP in Telangana. TRS has a hard choice now, either it runs in the arms of MIM or stands up as a pro-Hindu party, no middle path. As for CON its almost funny, the decision to bifurcate the state has backfired so badly it is almost wiped in both new states with no one even bothering to form an alliance with them anymore!

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 10 Nov 2020 22:40

नोद शर्मा Flag of India
@vinod_sharma

10h
Bihar results will put fear in Uddhav's bones.

He has bitten more than he could chew. Will bite the proverbial dust soon.

Does anyone think this is possible?

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 10 Nov 2020 22:56

Aditya_V wrote:Communists and INC are one, no need to differentiate between them

Mahathugbandhan would have been chaos for the state. That said, the commies are a real threat. Even if though RJD support, this should be noted.

kvraghav · Post by **kvraghav** » 10 Nov 2020 23:01

ramana wrote:Quite a historic win in Bihar and all the bye-polls.
Lessons learned in Harayana.

IndraD, Do the UC still feel good about staying home?

I think the Nikita Tomar case had a big bearing on Haryana by election but the elections are still not over in Bihar.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 10 Nov 2020 23:02

vijayk wrote:
nachiket wrote:The performance of the communists is troubling. It can't be mere vote transfer due to being in MGB. They have a much better strike rate than the Congress.
Most likely. They have some support ad organization earlier.

Morons of CON party have to throw out the Gandoos. Gandoos are like termites eating Congress from inside out: Their main support base is internation Islamic terrorists, Paki ISI, ISIS, Turkey, Xi Ping, CCP, Filthy progressives in US, BIF and scam media in Delhi. No public support

when unemployment is high, this particular party gets to raise its ugly head.

as a party, it will not matter to anyone when the unemployment figures come down.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 10 Nov 2020 23:02

Jarita wrote:
Aditya_V wrote:Communists and INC are one, no need to differentiate between them

Mahathugbandhan would have been chaos for the state. That said, the commies are a real threat. Even if though RJD support, this should be noted.

Central Bihar has long had a very strong Communist presence, from the 1960s. It is not of today. They have always been having a representation in Bihar assembly, without fail. Only, this time, even CPI(ML) joined with RJD and did slightly better than usual. Even otherwise, they would have got a few seats.

Kanhaiya Kumar did not come out of a void. There is a strong Communist presence in his hometown. For socio-economic reasons, the Communists of central Bihar are not going to die in the near future either.

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 10 Nov 2020 23:09

Also, people tend to forget that the Bihari society is inherently socialist, even the upper middle-class. So there is always some sympathy for socialists and commies, besides Manjhi is a backward area so CPIM winning there is surprising but not shocking.

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 10 Nov 2020 23:11

The election has been incredibly close, there are many seats where the difference is <100 votes which will surely go to recount. Over 40 seats are leading/trailing <5000 votes.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 10 Nov 2020 23:18

Yes people forget the Left and Commie presence in Bihar since pre Independence.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 10 Nov 2020 23:20

121 confirmed wins for NDA now.
5 more seats to be declared.
1 LJP win, 2 independent wins, 5 AIMIM wins.

kvraghav · Post by **kvraghav** » 10 Nov 2020 23:23

HAM has won 3? They were outside NDA.

OmkarC · Post by **OmkarC** » 10 Nov 2020 23:25

SandeepA wrote:Best result is the Dubbak win for BJP. This effectively means that its going to be TRS vs BJP in Telangana. TRS has a hard choice now, either it runs in the arms of MIM or stands up as a pro-Hindu party, no middle path. As for CON its almost funny, the decision to bifurcate the state has backfired so badly it is almost wiped in both new states with no one even bothering to form an alliance with them anymore!

Yes, really great result indeed.. this will have repercussions on Hyderabad Municipal polls as well.. I have been following this closely for the past few months, even many exit polls gave it to TRS.. this was the hardest fought local election in recent history and for the first time all 3 parties fought with internal unity (including all the factions within congress) and brought their entire strength.. BJP had not only united cadre, but rural youth in its favor.. overall, cadre power out muzzled money & state machinery power.

In addition to poor development & unemployment, some reasons for BJP victory, according to a non-communist journalists/analyst:
- TRS cozying up to MIM, praising Nizam and his "glorious" rule, simply doesnt go well in rural Telangana that still remembers those atrocities.. they get around this by throwing around freebies, but when there is not much development either, people have no reason to choose the nizam bootlickers.. their tacit alliance with MIM (in hindu dominated areas, its an open alliance in muslim dominated areas) with the Owaisi bros will be the mill around their neck.
- Candidate choice: BJP candidate Raghunandan Rao is an excellent debater, sharp lawyer, who can articulate party position very well on all national issues. The TRS candidate was just a Rabri Devi clone.
- People fed up with TRS' arrogance.. towards the end TRS realized BJP was gaining and started using Bengal/Kerala-style politics, sent police to the BJP candidate's house to find "stashes of money".. in the police raid, they misbehaved with his family and even kicked his 1 yr old grand daughter with boots.. Manhandling & harassment of Raghunandan Rao & BJP state president Bandi Sanjay as well.. central forces were sent quickly to protect him though (thanks to Shah & Kishan reddy).

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 10 Nov 2020 23:39

kvraghav wrote:HAM has won 3? They were outside NDA.

Google first and check the news. NDA in the Bihar election is BJP+JDU+HAM+VIP. Paswan (LJP) will probably rejoin the state NDA after the election.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 10 Nov 2020 23:57

Jungle Raj avoided for another 5 years.

A lot of Rhona Dhona spared for us here and on SM.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 11 Nov 2020 00:25

BJP now has a very comfortable majority in the KAR assembly

they have won the RR Nagar and Sira bypolls in KAR

Yediyurappa is riding high once again.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 11 Nov 2020 00:32

hanumadu wrote:Jungle Raj avoided for another 5 years.

A lot of Rhona Dhona spared for us here and on SM.

BJP+ 124
LJP 1
MGB+ 111
Oth 7

243/243

only nitishwa can disturb the BH equation now.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 11 Nov 2020 00:38

whatsapp forward

only thing left to do now is for joe biden to ask sanjay raut to send the JCB to demolish the WH and evict ट्रम्पवा

greatde · Post by **greatde** » 11 Nov 2020 00:39

HAM/VIP are the kingmakers. They can change sides.

And if NDA alliance do form the government, its essential BJP gets the speaker post.

kvraghav · Post by **kvraghav** » 11 Nov 2020 00:41

HAM and VIP have 8 seats between them. BJP had given them seats from their own quota. Lets see if they hold. BSP, LJP and independent will join the tally. But we have to see how loyal the 19 congress men will be to their party.

Vips · Post by **Vips** » 11 Nov 2020 00:43

The Jr Animal Feed eater can still rush to the Raj Bhavan and ask that his party as the single largest party should be the first to get an invite to form the government. He may be hoping that disgruntled and opportunistic JDU members can be bought over.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 11 Nov 2020 00:50

Vips wrote:The Jr Animal Feed eater can still rush to the Raj Bhavan and ask that his party as the single largest party should be the first to get an invite to form the government. He may be hoping that disgruntled and opportunistic JDU members can be bought over.

No. they all formed as an alliance. So Guv will call NDA

kvraghav · Post by **kvraghav** » 11 Nov 2020 00:51

^^
Not happening. MGA is only 111 seats. The BJP+JDU needs just 112 support letters if it comes to that.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 11 Nov 2020 00:52

greatde wrote:HAM/VIP are the kingmakers. They can change sides.

And if NDA alliance do form the government, its essential BJP gets the speaker post.

yes indeed.

spoke too soon.

Vips · Post by **Vips** » 11 Nov 2020 00:52

AIMIM winning seats in Bihar is good news for BJP as in future AIMIM will cut into the vote share of RJD/JD/Congress in Bihar, of SP/BSP/Congress in UP, of Congress in MP and of TRS/Congress in Telangana. This will result in counter consolidation of votes for BJP in these states.

kvraghav · Post by **kvraghav** » 11 Nov 2020 00:55

I was checking constituency wise voting in Bihar. The LJP has easily cost Nitish 20 seats. I think Chirag should have just waited for Nitish to go out after this term rather than creating such a unstable govt.

darshan · Post by **darshan** » 11 Nov 2020 01:01

It has almost been twenty years since mainstream Hindu organizations have pulled back from Dang. Hopefully, significant reforms and ecosystem development would bring them back to Dang to stop the vultures.

A crucial take away from Gujarat by-polls: Minority votes slipped away from Congress
https://www.deshgujarat.com/2020/11/10/ ... -congress/
...
Congress candidate lost Morbi by margin of 4,688 votes. Combined votes of three Muslim candidates who were in fray in Morbi is more than this margin. Bhatti Hushenbhai of All India Majlis-E-Inquilab-E-Millat has got 870 votes, independent Muslim candidates Movar Nijambhai Gafurbhai and Bloch Ismail Yarmahmadbhai have received 3,162 and 2,107 votes respectively. If Muslims had voted for Congress in unison, Congress coud emerge victorious in Morbi.

But even more vocal case is Abdasa, where Padhiyar Hanif Jakab, an independent Muslim candidate won 26,463 votes. Other Muslim candidates Akub Mutva from Bahujan Mukti Party received 4,983 votes while Ibrahim Halepotra had 1239 votes. The point is, significant number of Muslims choose to vote for candidates other than Congress in these by-polls. Muslims otherwise, by-and-large would do tactical voting in favor of Congress.

The Dangs in South Gujarat is tribal populated assembly seat with significant number of Christians. However the BJP is enjoying unprecedented 60,000+ lead there. It’s worth noting that Congress had fielded a Christian tribal candidate against BJP.
...

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 11 Nov 2020 01:08

OmkarC wrote:
...
- TRS cozying up to MIM, praising Nizam and his "glorious" rule, simply doesnt go well in rural Telangana that still remembers those atrocities.. they get around this by throwing around freebies, but when there is not much development either, people have no reason to choose the nizam bootlickers.. their tacit alliance with MIM (in hindu dominated areas, its an open alliance in muslim dominated areas) with the Owaisi bros will be the mill around their neck.

Great point. KCR is not a trueTelangana son-of-the soil and doesn’t fully understand Telangana, which has more aspects than just wanting a separate state.

These are people who make a point of starting the annual Bonalu procession and offerings at the Akkanna-Madanna temple in Golconda fort. Centuries after the brothers were lynched by peacefuls from West Asia, these supposedly poor & backward people kept up the tradition of defiance throughout the Asaf Jahi rule.

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 11 Nov 2020 01:09

Spoke to some subalterns

)). It seems China imbroglio has a role to play in bypolls across the country. It was a surprise to me as the sentiment of the people was something that none of us factored in.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 11 Nov 2020 01:25

Huge Anti-KCR sentiment in Hyd/TL now. His endless sops to Muslims (announced on the floor of the assembly and recorded, some made me doubt if they can even be defended as non-discriminatory) are seen as grovelling to Owaisi, his over the moon promises are seen as plain lies, his whole family & cronies are seen as rabid thugs. Added to this, recent Hyd floods and poor flood relief operations, the blatant official goondagiri using the police on BJP leaders, and nominating angutha chaap-Rabri type candidates... everyone can see how seriously power drunk TRS actually is.

If AS & BJP local units take TL seriously from right now, they can vote out TRS in the next assembly elections.

KJo · Post by **KJo** » 11 Nov 2020 01:35

Vips wrote:AIMIM winning seats in Bihar is good news for BJP as in future AIMIM will cut into the vote share of RJD/JD/Congress in Bihar, of SP/BSP/Congress in UP, of Congress in MP and of TRS/Congress in Telangana. This will result in counter consolidation of votes for BJP in these states.

I agree, Congress and such "secular" parties have used polarization of the Muslim community to win elections by pandering to the Muslims. BJP should take it to the next step and polarize it more and consolidate the Hindu vote. They have done a good job till now but a long way to go.
Let it be Hindu+ (Hindu and other Indics) vs Abrahamic cults.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 11 Nov 2020 01:55

Vips wrote:AIMIM winning seats in Bihar is good news for BJP as in future AIMIM will cut into the vote share of RJD/JD/Congress in Bihar, of SP/BSP/Congress in UP, of Congress in MP and of TRS/Congress in Telangana. This will result in counter consolidation of votes for BJP in these states.

This is going to happen in Bengal as well - especially in the `Hindi belt' [many of the Muslims here are Hindi speaking Muslims] of Maldah and Dinajpur. Mamata will be the worst sufferer, as it bites into her vote bank.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 11 Nov 2020 02:01

Some lady from RJD was saying on NDTV to the effect that there is not a single case against Owaisi because he is working with AS to split votes in favour of BJP wherever he has been contesting.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 11 Nov 2020 02:36

KL Dubey wrote:
kvraghav wrote:HAM has won 3? They were outside NDA.
Google first and check the news. NDA in the Bihar election is BJP+JDU+HAM+VIP. Paswan (LJP) will probably rejoin the state NDA after the election.

LJP seems to have hurt the JDU considerably. They had candidates only against JDU but not the BJP IIRC. May be one reason the JDU has done so badly.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 11 Nov 2020 02:39

Dilbu wrote:Some lady from RJD was saying on NDTV to the effect that there is not a single case against Owaisi because he is working with AS to split votes in favour of BJP wherever he has been contesting.

Rajdeep straight up accused Owaisi of betraying secularism. Leave aside the question of how a party of only Muslims and for Muslims can be "secular" in the first place, Sardesai was openly shilling for the MGB and attempting to push Owaisi into openly allying with the MGB on air. Absolutely shameless cretin. Unfortunately for him he got a tongue lashing from Owaisi who asked him if he was representing the MGB

. Then referred to RaGa as "Prince Charming"

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 11 Nov 2020 02:40

nachiket wrote:
KL Dubey wrote: Google first and check the news. NDA in the Bihar election is BJP+JDU+HAM+VIP. Paswan (LJP) will probably rejoin the state NDA after the election.
LJP seems to have hurt the JDU considerably. They had candidates only against JDU but not the BJP IIRC. May be one reason the JDU has done so badly.

as they specifically intended to do.

asbchakri · Post by **asbchakri** » 11 Nov 2020 02:56

I always felt it's a risky move to allow that happen in the overall scheme of things. What if he cut into more of the JDU seats. RJD may well have benefited from that, BJP certainly does not. It might have reduced the overall NDA seats and would have lost majority, seeing how razor thin the majority is

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 11 Nov 2020 03:07

shiv sena was clean bowled in the BH elections.

maybe it's time to send out the JCB to demolish nitishwa's house

or better still, the mumbai police should immediately arrest voters of those 22 constituencies with an AK-47 toting encounter specialist in the lead

or the legislative assembly should send them a secret privilege notice for disrespecting maratha leaders

shiv sena contested 22 seats in BH.

Performs worse than NOTA in 21 seats.

Trends show Shiv Sena performing worse than NOTA in 21 out of 22 seats in Bihar: Read details of all seats

all zamanat zabt onlee but CM will be still from SS

disha · Post by **disha** » 11 Nov 2020 03:22

CONgoons lost big time everywhere. Particularly in Gujarat. Totally lost in 8 assembly seats. Hopefully, this erosion continues into 2024.

Though Rupani has to do more. Just running a clean, generally peaceful, non-corrupt government is not enough. He needs to get on to the next level. Bring HiTec into Gujarat. Can start off with industrial tech.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 11 Nov 2020 03:50

when urban naxals are suffering from a severe case of the piles