Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 Jan 2014 11:50

Royal Bank of Scotland executive Meera Sanyal, who stepped down from the bank on December 31, joined the AAP on Wednesday evening. Sanyal has offered her candidature for the Lok sabha elections from the Mumbai South Constituency.

Former BJP MLA Dr Kanu Kalsaria has also joined the ranks of the party. Former Infosys executive V Balakrishnan has also joined the party.

The party has also launched units in Thiruvananthapuram and Chennai. AAP's Chennai unit saw more than 2000 people sign up in their latest membership drive.

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 02 Jan 2014 11:54

How are such high profile people joining AAP ?? anti - corruption doesnt seems to be the only reason. How many aam admi even known who is Meera Sanyal ??? how is she going to help AAP ???

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 Jan 2014 12:18

AAP offers a break from the usual dynastic model for people wanting to join politics. at state level, a lot of politics is run along (a) dynastic lines (b) student leaders in college -> becomes a political worker -> corporator -> MLA.

MSM will now take care of projecting their achievements.

prahaar · Post by **prahaar** » 02 Jan 2014 12:33

krishnan wrote:How are such high profile people joining AAP ?? anti - corruption doesnt seems to be the only reason. How many aam admi even known who is Meera Sanyal ??? how is she going to help AAP ???

Is she the person who contested in Mumbai few years back as an independent? Many elite PLUs may vote for her, might be good if she contests from the same constituency as Priya Dutt.

Saral · Post by **Saral** » 02 Jan 2014 12:33

krishnan wrote:How are such high profile people joining AAP ?? anti - corruption doesnt seems to be the only reason. How many aam admi even known who is Meera Sanyal ??? how is she going to help AAP ???

Occams razor onlee. These people now feel that politics is now acceptable enough to give them a sense of purpose. AAP is an attractor to newbies to politics, some of them who are like Meera Sanyal and Balakrishnan. They feel they can make a big impact there and it seems like a good hobby to indulge in now that 2014 is here. BJP should've really filled the vaccum we feel as Kaangress is imploding, at least in the urban areas. Modi needs to take some big risks now. Time for conservative chess moves is over.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 02 Jan 2014 12:36

BJP should have welcomed the technocrats from the middle class to join the politics

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 02 Jan 2014 12:44

Overall, the same educated demographic that voted for MMS the economist is moving to the AAP party. These are firm believers in socialism, and government redistribution schemes, having benefited from it themselves (e.g. IITians who get subsidized education).

In a sense, it is good that these people are not coming to the BJP, as that would convert the BJP's economic policy into a Congress clone.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 Jan 2014 13:09

I think you are reading it wrong. these people are also market capitalists (they are wealthy enough not to care about subsidies anymore) but neither the INC or the BJP is offering them an entry into the MLA/MP level...these slots are reserved for longtime party grassroots workers, dynasts and people of certifiable loyalty over longer term who can also bring in $$ like rich businessmen and contractors.

so what do you do if you feel you have the skills to do the same thing...you join a "startup" attempting to disrupt the behemoths with a better pkg/product

where they might not care for your ivy-league degree but test your raw programming skills more.

and AAP is that startup. yesterday it was apple vs msft, or komatsu vs caterpillar...if the startup takes off and claims market share with certain new ideas, eventually the incumbents will be forced to adopt these new ideas as well to compete and/or buy or ally with the startup to fill a void in the product space.

it is a market. and all sorts of wrong and unhealthy things like coke and bigmac's get sold by the billions each year over decades. AAP has used product marketing strategy to figure out what are the low level direct pain points of the educated middle class - corruption at the touch points with the government (revenue office, police, water, electricity, building permits, govt run schools...every place needs a small bribe atleast to move it fwd) and offered a sugar coated pill. people will care about these a lot before thinking about macro stuff like TSP and JK.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 02 Jan 2014 13:15

Acharya wrote:BJP should have welcomed the technocrats from the middle class to join the politics

Eminent people who have proven their leadership qualities in other fields can contribute to politics through the Rajya Sabha route. That's how it was supposed to be. Though they need not be made Prime Ministers.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 Jan 2014 13:24

BJP/INC cannot bring in such people enmasse to project a "fresh face" because it will lead to revolt among the established 2nd line managers/directors/VPs who have worked long and hard to secure their place in the system.

the initiative hence rests with the AAP to needle these behemoths and look far and wide for disruptive ideas and people. they also have the luxury of picking and choosing their fights where they feel traction. the behemoths have to not only service a existing customer base of "legacy product" but find the time and resources to wage this new battle on territories they might be unfamiliar with.

member_20317 · Post by **member_20317** » 02 Jan 2014 13:50

Characterisation of Market capitalists for these technocrats does not seem right. These are mostly people who wish to have a say but don't. They wish to have a say probably because they either want to be 'givers of subsidies' or they want to rid themselves of the 'guilt of having made money when everything around is falling apart'.

By and large, technocrats themselves are not willing to join politics. Politics is gandi gandi gandi baat. Sucks the blood right off the more predictable, more measurable, more wishable ideas.

There are a minority of technocrats who basically do not give up competing even after getting into IIT while at the same time maintaining a close relationship with the world around in real time. These guys come up as Parrikar et al. Will you ever see Parrikar seeking votes because he is Aam Admi who drives a mar,uti. I am sure there are others too who think and act like Parrikar. Not necessarily in electoral politics but nonetheless in the larger political world. These guys basically took up politics entirely disregarding that it is a gandi gandi gandi baat. Probably some may actually be enjoying it for the sheer competition.

And besides as Disha ji said earlier and I am sure most around 40 would realize that BJP has an image problem too. During the RJB phase the 5 pradesh that BJP had, was any, known for good governance. From those times you have Swaraj+LKA+Joshi. How many technocrats would like to work in a team where these guys are incharge. I suspect zilch. Not even a BJP sympathizer technocrat. Today a sympathizer can confidently put forth Gujarat, Chattisgarh, MP and may play defensive on KA. A lot of technocrats have seen this and some will climb up the chain too.

PS : Besides a majority of technocrats do enjoy their jobs enough and genuinely wish to contribute from that perspective. Which is quite honorable by itself.

BhairavP · Post by **BhairavP** » 02 Jan 2014 13:54

prahaar wrote:
krishnan wrote:How are such high profile people joining AAP ?? anti - corruption doesnt seems to be the only reason. How many aam admi even known who is Meera Sanyal ??? how is she going to help AAP ???
Is she the person who contested in Mumbai few years back as an independent? Many elite PLUs may vote for her, might be good if she contests from the same constituency as Priya Dutt.

No they won't. She lost her deposit last time around, and no, Priya Dutt is in an entirely different constituency -> Mumbai North-West.

I think Singha saar is right - they have made their money, and think that they can be catapulted to the front on their name alone, not like in the other parties, where it is definitely a meritocracy - work hard, and you will make it to the top - MP/MLA whatever.

darshhan · Post by **darshhan** » 02 Jan 2014 14:07

By the way where is the phone no. that Arvind Kejriwal promised.

prahaar · Post by **prahaar** » 02 Jan 2014 14:12

BhairavP wrote: No they won't. She lost her deposit last time around, and no, Priya Dutt is in an entirely different constituency -> Mumbai North-West.

I think Singha saar is right - they have made their money, and think that they can be catapulted to the front on their name alone, not like in the other parties, where it is definitely a meritocracy - work hard, and you will make it to the top - MP/MLA whatever.

Thanks for the info.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 02 Jan 2014 14:22

SriKumar wrote:
hanumadu wrote:The idea is by the time Delhites realize it and the rest of India realizes it even later, the GE 2014 would have already taken place
I am sure you (and everyone else) knows this but want to mention it anyway..... in this day/age of 24/7 twitter, social media, other internet stuff, even 1 week is like an aeon, especially as it gets close to election time. A lot of ground can be covered (or lost) in a relatively short period of time.

Well, if that was really the case, AAP would not have won a single Delhi seat. There was enough information on social media what AAP really stands for, yet people got taken in by him, even on BR.

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 02 Jan 2014 14:29

Wow Dr. Shri Harshwardhan is tearing a new one to both kejri & manish sisodiya. Hitting so hard but with such a soft manner. I love him!

Please watch on hindi channels.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Added later:

1. Kejriwal should apologies for kashmir statement by his party members...

2. kejri has to apologies for sacrifice of Inspector Mohan and calling it a "fake encounter"........

3. kejri has to apologies for taking money from ford foundation as they're spreading funds to destabilise many countries.

Dr. Shri Harshwardhan has said if kejri and aap apologises on these 3 matters they'll get support from BJP.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 Jan 2014 15:15

these folks probably take inspiration from the russian oligarchs making a foray into politics, euro tycoons like silvio berloscuni, bloomberg, and SV folks with political ambitions like fiorina, mayer et al.

member_20317 · Post by **member_20317** » 02 Jan 2014 15:34

Meantime - I am crying tears of joy. Just look at the camaraderie.

The future of India getting a buck up from the oldies.

Harsh Vardhan said, "Before elections, Arvind Kejriwal said vote for the most honest party and people of Delhi gave most seats to BJP."

"We are not a party, we are representatives of people and urge the MLAs of all party's to rise above party lines and support alternate governance for the people of Delhi," he (Sisodia) said.

Read more at:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 284512.cms

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 02 Jan 2014 15:44

More like the chi chi class feel that there is a party where they can belong. But the AAP in Delhi went with jholawala/NGO types for candidates. It needs to be seen how many of these Khas-admis get tickets and transform into Aam-admis.

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 02 Jan 2014 15:47

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 02 Jan 2014 15:59

abhik wrote:More like the chi chi class feel that there is a party where they can belong. But the AAP in Delhi went with jholawala/NGO types for candidates. It needs to be seen how many of these Khas-admis get tickets and transform into Aam-admis.

exactly. a ton of big name types joining the AAP and MSM gleefully trumpeting it to make more converts. vast majority of urban voters are sheeple. give them some good soundbytes and feel good factor and they run to that "icon" to be seen with it. plus these middle class types didnt know how to survive or manage in a traditional party, with its bewildering caste-ethnic-conventional lines of power or so they thought. AAP they think, anybody can join, anybody can win.
sad, but it just shows how much dissatisfaction was there in the system, while for the past 8 years D4 & BJP sat around hands in the pocket, doing nothing and led by a geriatric who was completely out of touch with reality.
truly modi is facing incredible odds. if he pulls it off even so, the AAP is going to be the next big threat in 2019 as well.

member_20317 · Post by **member_20317** » 02 Jan 2014 16:05

AAP may not even be around by 2019 if NaMo gets to Delhi. Delhi Assembly would most likely be with BJP.

But I cannot understand why in this world does AK-47 sport that big sulk. Do I owe you something, Mr. Chief Minister.

You are in office now. Come on be a sport. Duniya to hamesha se aeisi hi thi bhai. Hansna band thodi hi kar sakte hain.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 02 Jan 2014 16:19

well i hope you are right, but lets not (mis) underestimate kejriwal. he is a master at using (and dumping) people to achieve his aims and absolutely fanatical in the ends justifies the means sort of way.

JohnTitor · Post by **JohnTitor** » 02 Jan 2014 17:09

Rahul Mehta wrote:A storm may be coming folks --- the CAG audit in Delhi "may" RIGHTLY prove that electricity prices in Delhi and across India were highly inflated and so prices may reduce by 30% to 50% !! By Jan\Feb end CAG will have all the data it needs to show that Distribution companies were over charging by 30% to 50%.

If that is so how are state electricity boards running under losses?? I don't understand.

http://www.platts.com/latest-news/elect ... or-8163128

And if you are going to say that the producers are overcharging the SEBs then if they are forced to reduce prices, the SEBs should recoup losses, right? How is providing more subsidy going to help????

Nationalists workers such as BST-workers , RSS-workers refused to support the law-drafts needed to reduce corruption. As a result, corruption in all depts and electricity dept grew. It is fact that there is rampant corruption in electricity Ministry in all states including Gujarat and Delhi, and as a result, the production costs are high and supply costs are much much higher. And it is also a fact that BJP\Congress leaders made tons of money. And distribution company owners like Tata, Ambani, Torrent etc also made windfall nefarious illegal profits.

I have no doubts and agree 100% with the bolded part. But heres the rub, if there is so much corruption and it has been dusted under the carpet by the same agencies this far, why would that change now? Wouldnt the same corrupt people (for instance) bribe the CAG to say there is no inflation of prices? Why will CAG be "honest" all of a sudden? Lets not forget that CAG is not one person while AK is. And if your reply is going to be "AK has powers/leverage to make them not accept bribes from the power industry (because of MNCs)"... why would the MNCs need him? They could have forced the issue some other way, perhaps even through INC??

So in feb-2014 or in mar-2014, MNC-owners will give two deals to NaMo

Give tickets to 400 MNC-agents and Missionary-agents in BJP\NDA , OR ELSE

CAG will disclose the data to public, and enable AK to get court order to reduce electricity charges by 30% and paid-media will make it a news bigger than freedom of India, and thus enable AK to cut crores of votes across India.

Please sir, don't take this the wrong way.. but are you making this stuff up or do you have something to back it? No offense but your statements seem as fantastic as the guy on politicsparty.com.

Solution ? I will write solution in my SMS thread . Because admins dont want me to write about solutions here.

sir, please to send me a link to the SMS thread(?) - don't know what it is... I would really like to understand more of what you say.

member_20317 · Post by **member_20317** » 02 Jan 2014 17:28

Shonu ji, typically whenever a commercial deal is struck there is in the background an excel spread sheet which is part of the management accounting systems where the line items are not going to be exact or match against historical accounting. There will be time related differences. Some forms of costs (usually indirect) would not be there or will be there as some figure calculated as a percentage of something pulled out of the mushraff. All will look very professional on paper. Then some party will provide some mark ups, discounting and some cut backs whatever.

So by the time it ends it truely reflects what the people in power want to see. The problem starts when the people in power fall out. Like say the Generation Company cannot make money so it overcharges the distribution company which in turn overcharges the consumer. But then the consumer is also the voter. And voter knows jack shit about accounting and law. So some more theorizing is done by invoking 'public good' in the courts. Then some bright guys gets the same shifted to arbitrators who may be purchase-able but intelligent with domain expertise. Then some even brighter guy will come along with the 'word of law' which takes precedence over everything else. But then 'The Word' is a shifting slipper hamster and can be amended. The some even brightest guy comes along who will take it all again to the courts putting multiple Miscellenous Applicaitons for whatever he can think off and before you know it all investments gonna come to a halt because the entreprenuer is well just a simple baniya. A varna quite different from a Kashtriya. And by then your current account deficit balloons to 7% of WT_ and US walas are selling in the market with persistent high inflation which requires subsidies since aam admi is suffering and then in comes AK-47 to restart the beneficial cycle.

Zimple only.

VV I am begining to love Tambis. I wish I be born a Tambi next birth.

Ashok Sarraff · Post by **Ashok Sarraff** » 02 Jan 2014 17:30

Talked to a few ITVity Dilli-billis with no BR/internet-Hindu antecedents. It seems people are willing to "try out" Kejriwal because he is "new" and may implement some "innovative" solutions in Dilli. But the silver lining is that these Dilli-billis are clear that they will vote Modi in the parliamentary elections. So Kejriwal for Dilli and Modi for India seems to be the thinking for some. Talked to some Chennai wasis as well. When asked about AAP and Kejriwal, the response was "WTH? What's that?"

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 Jan 2014 17:44

the wealthy people like sanyal joining aap this week appears to be a co-ordinated move to gain max media soundbytes plus the news of donations approaching 18 L / day.
lal bahadur shastri grandson who was head of sales Apple west india quite and joined.
the Infy guy was tipped to succeed the current CEO in 2015, but he has quit.
and sanyal was head of india hsbc and has the 'haavaad trained' tag also.

perfect resumes to attract and retain the sheeple.

archan · Post by **archan** » 02 Jan 2014 18:11

Singha wrote:I think you are reading it wrong. these people are also market capitalists (they are wealthy enough not to care about subsidies anymore) but neither the INC or the BJP is offering them an entry into the MLA/MP level...these slots are reserved for longtime party grassroots workers, dynasts and people of certifiable loyalty over longer term who can also bring in $$ like rich businessmen and contractors.

so what do you do if you feel you have the skills to do the same thing...you join a "startup" attempting to disrupt the behemoths with a better pkg/product where they might not care for your ivy-league degree but test your raw programming skills more.

and AAP is that startup. yesterday it was apple vs msft, or komatsu vs caterpillar...if the startup takes off and claims market share with certain new ideas, eventually the incumbents will be forced to adopt these new ideas as well to compete and/or buy or ally with the startup to fill a void in the product space.

it is a market. and all sorts of wrong and unhealthy things like coke and bigmac's get sold by the billions each year over decades. AAP has used product marketing strategy to figure out what are the low level direct pain points of the educated middle class - corruption at the touch points with the government (revenue office, police, water, electricity, building permits, govt run schools...every place needs a small bribe atleast to move it fwd) and offered a sugar coated pill. people will care about these a lot before thinking about macro stuff like TSP and JK.

Superbly put.

Ashok Sarraff · Post by **Ashok Sarraff** » 02 Jan 2014 18:16

Retired career diplomat Hardeep Puri, who served as India's permanent representative at the UN, today joined BJP ahead of the Lok Sabha elections, following in the footsteps of former Home Secretary R K Singh and Petroleum Secretary R S Pandey.

http://www.business-standard.com/articl ... 724_1.html

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 02 Jan 2014 18:19

Make no mistake. In the coming elections Modi's Gujarat model of positive governance is under threat from AAP model of crony socialism driven mindless populism. The educated urban vote bank supposed to fuel Modi's rise will be affected by this AAP model. It has all the right contents to attract the yuppy class. Cool image, populism (though harebrained), opportunity to be part of a revolution etc will surely draw away a large part of urban youth. Only question is will the damage be limited to few pockets like Bangalore and Mumbai or will it affect other areas.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 02 Jan 2014 18:22

Guys, bear with this boring table of mine, but I promise it will be informative

Here is a list of all tier 1 and 2 cities in India, covers all metros, large cities and million plus cities.

Now lets do the following
1. Remove seats from this list where BJP is irrelevant
2. Seats where BJP does not fight, but its NDA partners contest
3. All seats in Gujarat ( I am pretty sure that AAP wont be able to do any damn thing in Gujarat)

Here is the refined table

Now as I have marked in that table, there are bunch of seats where AAP will not have any effect and if at all they did have any effect, not enuf to dent BJP or congress prospects.

So here is the final table with seats in decreasing order of AAP influence.

A total of 27 seats. The ones highlighted in red (21 seats) are the only seats where BJP needs to do something to guard its voters from choosing AAP. Rest all is hawa, media gas. The remaining 6 are where AAP may have some influence, but does not affect BJP. Like in Nagpur BJP will anyway lose or in Jaipur whatever AAP does, BJP will still win.

So at best AAP can damage BJP in 21 LS seats of which 13 are in Delhi and Mumbai. And moreover in Mumbai BJP may contest only 3 seats. So that boils down to 18 seats. So BJP may have won lets say 12 of these 18 seats if not for AAP. Now lets say they win 6 seats. So what did AAP achieve, screw BJP in 6 seats.

This is where I tend to subscribe to Rajesh ji's theory. The aim of AAP is not to split BJP vote, I think it more of an operation my Sonia and her masters to move their assets to a new bottle.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 02 Jan 2014 19:42

thanks MR, good stuff.

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 02 Jan 2014 20:35

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 02 Jan 2014 20:35

muraliravi that was good

subhamoy.das · Post by **subhamoy.das** » 02 Jan 2014 20:45

Perfect. PAAP is actually Sonia Congress! RAG and SAG has privately lost control of Indira congress as is evident time and again RAG and party heads at logger heads ( adarsh scam, bill for protecting tainted ministers etc ). Now BJP need to aggressively show the light on this which they have started to do.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 Jan 2014 21:48

seem KJ was caught sitting in ladies seat of delhi metro along with his buddy vishwas enroute to swearing in

http://in.screen.yahoo.com/image-cm-kej ... 00942.html

btw schooling in delhi is another major pain point for the middle class. this is because seemingly in new delhi area no new school has been allowed for decades - the oldies like modern, st columba, dps are all there is. new schools could only come up in outskirts and in noida/gurgaon maybe mehrauli also. and I think admission fees are quite steep as people rush for the few good ones with history. by cracking down on school admission fees etc he can earn some cheap brownie points from middle class. and since none of his associates are in the education business he could do it against colleges as well.
cong/bjp there might be certain people who are into education sector like kamal nath is chairman IMT,ghaziabad.

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 02 Jan 2014 23:11

Singha wrote:I think you are reading it wrong. these people are also market capitalists (they are wealthy enough not to care about subsidies anymore) but neither the INC or the BJP is offering them an entry into the MLA/MP level...

I am simply going by AAP's record thus far. The people joining may have thrived in a capitalist system, but their politics can still be all about subsidies. This is the Nehru-Gandhi model, where the leaders with average means stay in Lutyens Delhi by taking advantage of cost-shifting and subsidies provided by the government.

Point is valid that INC or BJP place don't have a structured way for these people to participate. INC because of dynasty and BJP due to RSS influence.

member_20317 · Post by **member_20317** » 02 Jan 2014 23:21

This is the kind that now wants to get into Parliament. No sense of shame.

This is a tweett i picked up. Shows the trap full on

Sidhant Pundhir ‏@doctor_sidhant now
@Core_Belief I want bjp in centre with support of #AAP (like 50 seats) this way we'll have sort of best of both worlds. No more maya/mulayam

prahaar · Post by **prahaar** » 02 Jan 2014 23:25

Lateral entry is difficult not because of RSS, but due to the resistance of existing pipeline of aspirants from the long term cadre base. This is more strong in BJP because it is more cadre driven party. It will be much simpler in a dynastic party. MMS being the prime example. I believe that a technocrat does not always mean a mass leader.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 02 Jan 2014 23:26

A lurker sent me this email

AAP is an empty shell and safe parking space for clean Congressmen to be placed as temproray holding place. This creates a lot of upheaval and infighting. Eventually Congress will merge AAP into itself and claim to be new reinvented order....