2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

SRajesh · Post by **SRajesh** » 11 Nov 2020 03:54

.#BiharElection2020

@rahulgandhi did rallies for 52 seats. @incindia lost 42 of them and out of 42, on 17 seats they lost deposit

Well done Congress

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 11 Nov 2020 03:58

asbchakri wrote:I always felt it's a risky move to allow that happen in the overall scheme of things. What if he cut into more of the JDU seats. RJD may well have benefited from that, BJP certainly does not. It might have reduced the overall NDA seats and would have lost majority, seeing how razor thin the majority is

I doubt BJP has anything to do with LJP contesting alone. If it does, then it would not be without the approval of JD(U). Perhaps, the expectation was they would be cutting more votes from RJD+. It looks vindictive if BJP did it and I doubt Nitish would have still been a part of NDA in that case. It's not as if Nitish is helpless. BJP has far more to lose in LS 2024, Rajya Sabha strength, distrust in coalition partners etc. Remember the real prize is the center. Everything else can be/will be sacrificed for it.

Now that he is in the chair, I hope Nitish brings some radical change instead of the small incremental change he has brought so far. Industry, employment, jobs and infrastructure. Go out with a bang, Nitishwa.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 11 Nov 2020 04:39

hanumadu wrote:
asbchakri wrote:I always felt it's a risky move to allow that happen in the overall scheme of things. What if he cut into more of the JDU seats. RJD may well have benefited from that, BJP certainly does not. It might have reduced the overall NDA seats and would have lost majority, seeing how razor thin the majority is
I doubt BJP has anything to do with LJP contesting alone. If it does, then it would not be without the approval of JD(U). Perhaps, the expectation was they would be cutting more votes from RJD+. It looks vindictive if BJP did it and I doubt Nitish would have still been a part of NDA in that case. It's not as if Nitish is helpless. BJP has far more to lose in LS 2024, Rajya Sabha strength, distrust in coalition partners etc. Remember the real prize is the center. Everything else can be/will be sacrificed for it.

Now that he is in the chair, I hope Nitish brings some radical change instead of the small incremental change he has brought so far. Industry, employment, jobs and infrastructure. Go out with a bang, Nitishwa.

The LJP would have need a lot of moolah contesting all those seats.

one would have to wonder where it all came from, no.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 11 Nov 2020 05:02

chetak wrote: The LJP would have need a lot of moolah contesting all those seats.

one would have to wonder where it all came from, no.

I do not think there was any secret deal or help from the BJP. They came very close to losing this. Would have been very irresponsible.

Rishi_Tri · Post by **Rishi_Tri** » 11 Nov 2020 05:02

Bihar Assembly Elections - November 2020 - Final Results (all seats won and no leads) per Election Commission of India:

https://results.eci.gov.in/ACTRENDS2020 ... lt-S04.htm

NDA - 125 (BJP - 74, JDU - 43, VIP - 4, HAM - 4)
MGB - 110 (RJD - 75, INC - 19, CPI - 2, CPIM - 2, CPI MLL - 12)
Others - 8 (AIMIM - 5, BSP - 1, LJP - 1, Independent - 1)

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 11 Nov 2020 05:13

Rishi_Tri wrote:Bihar Assembly Elections - November 2020 - Final Results (all seats won and no leads) per Election Commission of India:

https://results.eci.gov.in/ACTRENDS2020 ... lt-S04.htm

NDA - 125 (BJP - 74, JDU - 43, VIP - 4, HAM - 4)
MGB - 110 (RJD - 75, INC - 19, CPI - 2, CPIM - 2, CPI MLL - 12)
Others - 8 (AIMIM - 5, BSP - 1, LJP - 1, Independent - 1)

This is a shaky majority. I am concerned about Jitan Ram Manjhi in particular. He had left the alliance once. I don't like the fact that MGB+Others+HAM exactly equals 122, although I guess the sole LJP and BSP MLA's are unlikely to support MGB.

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 11 Nov 2020 05:41

meanwhile rundeetv has a news caption about how Tejaswi Yadav is the youngest CM candidate at 31. I'm guessing he would be the next perpetual Pappu in waiting turning into youth icon at 55.

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 11 Nov 2020 05:45

The CPI factions wins needs to be studied and investigated closely. Yes, Bihar is deeply socialist and has a long communist past, it also has immense poverty and uneven development but CPI getting 16 seats is not normal. I suspect bags and bags of money must have come in from China. Chota Paswan got 5.1% vote share, he easily costed NDA 20 seats.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 11 Nov 2020 06:07

Ambar wrote:The CPI factions wins needs to be studied and investigated closely. Yes, Bihar is deeply socialist and has a long communist past, it also has immense poverty and uneven development but CPI getting 16 seats is not normal. I suspect bags and bags of money must have come in from China. Chota Paswan got 5.1% vote share, he easily costed NDA 20 seats.

In the 1990s, when the CPI factions allied with the RJD, they generally got 20-30 seats routinely. Even in the early 2000s, when they fought without the RJD alliance, they got 10-15 seats. In particular, CPI(ML) had never joined with the RJD ever, to the best of my knowledge, and CPI(ML) is actually a powerful force in Bihar, winning 5-10 seats in every election on their own without any alliance. With all the communists combining with the RJD and with Paswan destroying the JD(U) vote south of the Ganga, it is not surprising that they have got 16 seats between them. Actually, it is on the lower side. I would have expected more for the CPI(ML), which, to be honest, is a powerful force in Bihar south of the Ganga. It is these CPI(ML) activists who have been clashing with the Ranbir Sena and giving the Dalits protection against the landlord armies. So, they have a strong base there.

OmkarC · Post by **OmkarC** » 11 Nov 2020 06:38

Cyrano wrote:Huge Anti-KCR sentiment in Hyd/TL now. His endless sops to Muslims (announced on the floor of the assembly and recorded, some made me doubt if they can even be defended as non-discriminatory) are seen as grovelling to Owaisi, his over the moon promises are seen as plain lies, his whole family & cronies are seen as rabid thugs. Added to this, recent Hyd floods and poor flood relief operations, the blatant official goondagiri using the police on BJP leaders, and nominating angutha chaap-Rabri type candidates... everyone can see how seriously power drunk TRS actually is.

If AS & BJP local units take TL seriously from right now, they can vote out TRS in the next assembly elections.

Agreed there is a huge anti-KCR sentiment and if GHMC elections go on as planned, high probability that TRS + MIM may lose. However assembly polls in 2023 are a different beast.. KTR, KCR's son, is seen to be development oriented and a great ambassador of the state as the IT minister. He is credited with bringing lots of investments to the state.

Plus, in many southern states, ability to speak English fluently is seen as being development oriented. There are many urban folks who indulge in comparisons and tout this as a matter of state pride (no offense meant to anyone):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e2FceFD2kjY

After the above press meet, he apparently went campaigning and spoke in fluent Urdu, Hindi & Telangana accented Telugu freely with masses.

BTW, just last week, Amazon announced it will be investing 20K crores in TG to build a large data center, which is credited to him. So, he will have urban votes, esp IT folks rallying for him.

BJP has many street fighters in TG who are good to take on Owaisis/MIM, but frankly dont see anyone who can match KTR's class.. this is the opposite problem from Bengal/Kerala where I heard they may not have many street fighters.. if KCR steps down in 2023 and project KTR as the CM candidate, he will be a tough fight provided they dont antagonize Hindus and continue to bring in investments, and being heads/shoulders above the street fighting "communal forces" of BJP & MIM.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 11 Nov 2020 06:44

nachiket wrote:
Rishi_Tri wrote:Bihar Assembly Elections - November 2020 - Final Results (all seats won and no leads) per Election Commission of India:

https://results.eci.gov.in/ACTRENDS2020 ... lt-S04.htm

NDA - 125 (BJP - 74, JDU - 43, VIP - 4, HAM - 4)
MGB - 110 (RJD - 75, INC - 19, CPI - 2, CPIM - 2, CPI MLL - 12)
Others - 8 (AIMIM - 5, BSP - 1, LJP - 1, Independent - 1)
This is a shaky majority. I am concerned about Jitan Ram Manjhi in particular. He had left the alliance once. I don't like the fact that MGB+Others+HAM exactly equals 122, although I guess the sole LJP and BSP MLA's are unlikely to support MGB.

nitishwa and manjhi are unpredictable prima donnas.

After this fiasco, the LJP may discover its price in case of any major realignment to move away from the NDA for a time and maybe chance it again in the next elections which may be the lok sabha.

unless someone splits the congis and there is a bypoll

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 11 Nov 2020 06:46

When I was in Hyderabad, even Auto drivers were hoping/expecting for Harish Rao to get out of TRS and join BJP. Several of them wanted BJP Govt. There is an under current. Harish Rao seems to be theorganization guy and KTR is front end. It will tough fight between BJP and TRS. TRS has become very corrupt party

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 11 Nov 2020 06:54

posted without comment

Kyon karein vichaar

Theeke to hai Nitish Kumar.

via @ajitdatta

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 11 Nov 2020 07:33

vimal wrote:meanwhile rundeetv has a news caption about how Tejaswi Yadav is the youngest CM candidate at 31. I'm guessing he would be the next perpetual Pappu in waiting turning into youth icon at 55.

At least he got to be Dipty CM for a while, and his relative Akhilesh got a full 5 year CM term. Pappu has never done anything, that is why he is the Pappu.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 11 Nov 2020 08:06

He's won votes. He is dangerous.

asbchakri · Post by **asbchakri** » 11 Nov 2020 08:56

nachiket wrote:
chetak wrote: The LJP would have need a lot of moolah contesting all those seats.

one would have to wonder where it all came from, no.
I do not think there was any secret deal or help from the BJP. They came very close to losing this. Would have been very irresponsible.

yes you are right, what i meant was BJP should have stopped him, gave him some seats, he may not heed though. who knows what happened

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 11 Nov 2020 09:57

Just one more opinion.

Rishi Bagree
@rishibagree
Hanuman and Suleiman dented Mahagathbandhan in 45 seats.

Thakur_B · Post by **Thakur_B** » 11 Nov 2020 10:07

Tejaswi Yadav is a guy to watch out for. His campaign was impressive and a few thousand votes here and there on critical seats would have sent nitish packing.

Tejaswi has successfully managed to dissociate himself with Lalu. He did not fight the election as Lalu's son but as Tejaswi Yadav, something which pappu hasn't done till date.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 11 Nov 2020 10:25

hanumadu wrote:Just one more opinion.

Rishi Bagree
@rishibagree
Hanuman and Suleiman dented Mahagathbandhan in 45 seats.

Bagree is an IT cell guy. Not sure if his information is always correct or more of a pump up the troops sort of thing.

darshhan · Post by **darshhan** » 11 Nov 2020 10:28

Actually Tejaswi lost because of Congress non performance as usual. RJD was in alliance with congress along with left parties. RJD under tejaswi was contesting 140 seats approx out of which it won 75 seats with a strike rate of more than 50%. Left parties also performed commendably. However Congress was allocated 70 sests and won just 19 seats thereby pouring cold water on Tejaswi's ambitions. Congress screws everything it touches. If only Tejaswi had taken some advice wrt Congress from his UP relative Akhilesh, the results would have been in his favour.

darshhan · Post by **darshhan** » 11 Nov 2020 10:39

One more point. Narendra Modi continues to be biggest brand in UP-Bihar regions by a wide margin. One reason for NDA's close victory over Mahagathbandhan is the rallies conducted by Modiji. It went a long way in tilting the edge towards NDA.

Vips · Post by **Vips** » 11 Nov 2020 10:41

chetak wrote:
hanumadu wrote:
I doubt BJP has anything to do with LJP contesting alone. If it does, then it would not be without the approval of JD(U). Perhaps, the expectation was they would be cutting more votes from RJD+. It looks vindictive if BJP did it and I doubt Nitish would have still been a part of NDA in that case. It's not as if Nitish is helpless. BJP has far more to lose in LS 2024, Rajya Sabha strength, distrust in coalition partners etc. Remember the real prize is the center. Everything else can be/will be sacrificed for it.

Now that he is in the chair, I hope Nitish brings some radical change instead of the small incremental change he has brought so far. Industry, employment, jobs and infrastructure. Go out with a bang, Nitishwa.
The LJP would have need a lot of moolah contesting all those seats.

one would have to wonder where it all came from, no.

On the contrary Chirag would have made a nice packet as each ticket fetches at least Rs 20-25 Lacs which the candidate has to pay for the privilige of running for the election. Even if he spent half of the total collections on the 140 seats in the elections the reminder would be a nice cushion for "office expenses" for future.

darshhan · Post by **darshhan** » 11 Nov 2020 11:03

These are the posts I made on 20th october

darshhan wrote:
Ambar wrote:Looking at the slick campaigning by Tejashwi yadav and RJD in Bihar, i am beginning to think the Paswans and BJP may have sensed a strong under current of anti-incumbency and hence LJPs decision to fight on all seats. I cannot help but wonder who in the mango janta would be gullible enough to trust Lalu's clan promising 10 lakh new jobs in a state with one of the highest poverty rates & lowest standards of living.
Chirag Paswan(LJP) is not fighting on all seats. He is fighting only on seats opposite where JDU(nitish) is contesting plus 20 seats extra.Approximately 140 seats. In nutshell he is giving free pass to almost 100 BJP candidates. And many if not most of his candidates are former BJP workers who did not make it to the official NDA list. Many are effective vote catchers too. As anti incumbency is high LJP stands a good chance to make its mark.

If Tejaswi was half as competent as his father, Nitish would have been history in these elections. Such is the level of anti incumbency and anger against nitish.

As far as your point wrt takers for 10 lakh govt jobs is concerned, dont underestimate its impact. If Delhi for all its high standards of living and high per capita income, can fall to Kejriwal and his bunch of thugs that too for free power and free water, then why should Bihar be any exception? But most probably as I stated earlier Tejaswi doesn't seem to have in him what is required for ousting Nitish on his own capacity.

darshhan wrote:
Ambar wrote:
I guess the point is even though Nitesh Kumar is far from being a competent administrator, Bihar must never forget the dark days of Lalu's "jungle raj". Anti-incumbency to bring back the very people that kept Bihar poorer than many sub-saharan african countries is suicidal. The number of young voters in India is a blessing as well as a curse, on one hand you have young, energetic people with burning ambitions who want change, better opportunities but at the same time they are impatient, impulsive and also lack the historic knowledge how bad things were in the past. No doubt, having seen the number of migrants from Bihar, UP, Jharkhand, WB, Orissa etc. stuck during the lockdown crisis in mar/apr, many of these people have no opportunities back home, but there is little substance in what Thejaswi Yadav is promising in a state where there is hardly any revenue for the government to produce a million jobs. Kejriwal could atleast put lipstick on the pig because he had a lipstick , in Bihar's case RJD has neither the lipstick nor the pig.
I doubt if tejaswi will come to power. 'Cause he doesn't seem to have the political acumen as well as work ethic of a successful politician. What can happen is that LJP under chirag manages to damage nitish in such a way that BJP might emerge as the single largest party. If that becomes the case then BJP will provide the CM candidate.

Ofcourse even if tejaswi somehow manages to win the elections, it is not entirely to BJP's disadvantage. Nitish is almost nearing 70 and if he loses these elections, it is effectively end of road for him. And without nitish jdu is nothing. BJP becomes the senior partner by default. Plus all indications point that Tejaswi will be a real shitty CM. He will face anti incumbency very fast. If he doesn't gain outright majority, his govt will not even last its full term. Plus internally he will be forced to toe BJP's line to ensure his father's early release or better treatment in jail itself.

So anyway by 2025 or even before that BJP will be again in pole position to rule Bihar. Now the question is whether any development during Tejaswi's rule? My answer to this is that Bihar is a riverine state especially north bihar. Lot of riverine infrastructure is in process of being built for eg bridges. Most of these bridges and other infrastructure will be completed during 2023-2025 period only. Before this infrastructure gets built, I doubt any substantial development will be possible even if you make Lee kwan yew the CM of Bihar. Forget BJP or RJD or congress.

kvraghav · Post by **kvraghav** » 11 Nov 2020 11:04

Why are people forgetting that without Chirag, the seats would have been 150, 25 more than the previous one. This is really a big win.

darshhan · Post by **darshhan** » 11 Nov 2020 11:07

Chirag Paswan took 5% votes by contesting on roughly 140 seats opposite mostly JDU. He didn't contest against BJP. Imagine the damage he did to Nitish when the elections were so close.

BJP ne Chirag ke saath mil ke Nitish ki setting kar di.

darshhan · Post by **darshhan** » 11 Nov 2020 11:13

This was a golden chance for Tejaswi. I doubt if he will get such an opportunity again. Though he is still young.

Santosh · Post by **Santosh** » 11 Nov 2020 11:18

125 is touch and go situation. Hopefully Manjhi and VIP stick around with NDA. They should also get support from LJP and BSP. BSP fought some seats with MIM it seems but doesn't look like MIM or BSP won any of these seats. So BSP should have no problem supporting NDA considering what happened to their MLAs/MLCs in Rajasthan.

darshhan · Post by **darshhan** » 11 Nov 2020 11:23

Santosh wrote:125 is touch and go situation. Hopefully Manjhi and VIP stick around with NDA. They should also get support from LJP and BSP. BSP fought some seats with MIM it seems but doesn't look like MIM or BSP won any of these seats. So BSP should have no problem supporting NDA considering what happened to their MLAs/MLCs in Rajasthan.

Don't worry. Governor belongs to BJP. So does Amit Shah. Even Nitish kumar will be BJP's doggy this time.

RajaRudra · Post by **RajaRudra** » 11 Nov 2020 11:29

MIM able to win, because votes of hindus got divided.
Not good to be naive hindus any more. Hindus should unite and vote as a block atleast in the places where the muslim party is in fray..

sajo · Post by **sajo** » 11 Nov 2020 11:42

Nobody seems to have noticed the quiet and efficient and undoubtedly very effective work done as BJP's Bihar election in-charge by Devendra Fadnavis. I always maintained that the way he handled the sly pawarful folks and a multitude of other issues while in power, he should get a better role in Delhi soon. He is definitely BJP's dark horse.

kvraghav · Post by **kvraghav** » 11 Nov 2020 11:48

An MIM win is good for BJP. This will consolidate the Hindus next time. We need data to check if whenever MIM wins in a Hindu majority are, does the BJP win next time.

darshhan · Post by **darshhan** » 11 Nov 2020 12:16

sajo wrote:Nobody seems to have noticed the quiet and efficient and undoubtedly very effective work done as BJP's Bihar election in-charge by Devendra Fadnavis. I always maintained that the way he handled the sly pawarful folks and a multitude of other issues while in power, he should get a better role in Delhi soon. He is definitely BJP's dark horse.

Devendra Fadnavis is definitely a very capable man especially from administrative perspective. But with respect to these bihar elections, his contribution is limited. The reason is that he was Prabhari for a very short period of time to actually understand what was happening. Most of the Bihar BJP is anyways incompetent whether it is Bhupender Yadav or Sushil modi.

Make no mistake this victory from BJP side belongs to Namo first and foremost.

sajo · Post by **sajo** » 11 Nov 2020 12:29

darshhan wrote:
Make no mistake this victory from BJP side belongs to Namo first and foremost.

True that. And its worrying that they need Modi all the time to tide them through.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 11 Nov 2020 12:36

Modi has correctly said that the priority of voters is vikaas. People are voting for the hope of improvement in their lives. Modi is the closest thing they can associate with that hope, for now. BJP will need someone to take over that role soon or it will shift from Modi to some 'youth' very soon if people feel there is a void in BJP after Modi's era. I am sure BJP is aware of this.

darshhan · Post by **darshhan** » 11 Nov 2020 12:38

The rumor is that Nitish Kumar is not ready to become CM.

Let us see if there is any truth to this story.

Ghor kaliyug. Friends more lethal than enemies.

Prem Kumar · Post by **Prem Kumar** » 11 Nov 2020 12:39

BJP's 41/59 score in the bypolls. Did they hold their seats or eat into the opposition? Does anyone have the data for this?

darshhan · Post by **darshhan** » 11 Nov 2020 12:43

Prem Kumar wrote:BJP's 41/59 score in the bypolls. Did they hold their seats or eat into the opposition? Does anyone have the data for this?

Link for you.

https://swarajyamag.com/insta/bjp-wins- ... ss-expense

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its ally on Tuesday (10 November) won 41 out of the 59 seats that went to bypolls in eleven states, reports Times of India.

According to the report, as many as 31 of the seats that BJP garnered were on the expense of Congress. Around 26 of these 31 seats were gained by BJP in just two states - Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh.

BJP defeated Congress in all eight seats that went to bypolls in Gujarat while in Madhya Pradesh it won 18 of the 19 seats that were previously held by the Congress.

With eight new MLAs in Gujarat, BJP now has 111 seats compared to Congress' 65.

Similarly in MP, the BJP's strength in the 229-member State Assembly has risen to 126 with the Congress having 96 members.

In Manipur, BJP won four of the five seats held by the Congress party earlier. The fifth seat was won by an independent.

Read it all.

Rupesh · Post by **Rupesh** » 11 Nov 2020 12:44

SC is taking Maharashtra govt. to the cleaners on Arnab's case. Expecting bail to be granted soon. Also had some words of advice to HC's to protect personal liberty.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 11 Nov 2020 12:47

Prem Kumar wrote:BJP's 41/59 score in the bypolls. Did they hold their seats or eat into the opposition? Does anyone have the data for this?

They took 2 seats from opposition in Karnataka. One from JD(S) and one from Congress (using a defector from Congress to BJP who took back his seat).

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 11 Nov 2020 12:50

Regional parties alone are currently not able to make a dent on the rise of BJP. Even the occasional pakiness of shifting to the other camp is possible only after winning the election on the back of a Namo wave, like SS in MH. MGB will become effective only if Congress can resurrect itself by abandoning the familia. A decent performance from Congress plus regional parties will still be a challenge for BJP in coming years. NDA partners will soon be important again for 2024 and towards the end of this term BJP may even reach out to SAD and SS again.