West Asia News and Discussions

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 25 May 2013 00:49

The Asad regime lost control of most of Syria's borders last summer, but it has always put the most effort into regaining control on the Lebanese one. It matters to the fight for Damascus, and its essential to the control of Homs, another major city, and it matters to the regime's own access to Lebanon and Hezbollah. The biggest asset the regime has is that it never fully lost control over the Lebanese government despite all of the setbacks from 2004-2013.

Turning around the situation on the western front with Lebanon will not be enough to fundamentally alter the overall balance between the regime and the rebels. Its still going to be a horrible, grinding sort of patchwork war. The regime is far more coherent than its opponents, but opposition is too widely distributed and committed for the state to take and hold much of the country, especially given the attrition its faced.

Meanwhile the cost of propping up Asad is vastly more of a financial drain on Iran than the rebels are on the Gulfies both in absolute and relative terms. Hezbollah's position of popularity in the Arab world after fighting Israel in 2006 has been vastly undermined, and the group is taking real casualties in the fighting, which together increasing their vulnerability to Israeli action. Given that these Iran and Hezbollah are Israel's two main strategic challenges, its not surprising that there's an influential section of Israeli opinion that is OK with what is happening, although the CW problem must be keeping them up late.

Agnimitra · Post by **Agnimitra** » 25 May 2013 02:10

Elliott Abrams on the Khamenei Doctrine: A country in #Iran's security system will be kept in that system. #Syria
The Brezhnev Doctrine, Iran-style

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 25 May 2013 11:10

Before Syria Disappears, Stop and Think

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 25 May 2013 17:48

Surprise alliance between KSA and the Muslim Brotherhood sealed in Jeddah to remove iranian influence from Shatt Al Arab to the mediteranean and also to remove Bashar.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 25 May 2013 17:53

shyamd wrote:Surprise alliance between KSA and the Muslim Brotherhood sealed in Jeddah to remove iranian influence from Shatt Al Arab to the mediteranean and also to remove Bashar.

It is one thing to try to remove Iranian influence in Syria (non-coastal), or in Sunni areas of Iraq. How do they plan to remove Iranian influence from Southern Iraq or Southern Lebanon?

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 25 May 2013 17:58

Obviously its a bold statement and symbolic, I don't think its possible in Southern Iraq/basra and the shi'ite heartland, but I think its possible in Lebanon due to the geographical and logistical challenges.

---------
Also today Davutoglu said if Geneva II conference doesn't work the plan B is to fully arm the rebels to militarily defeat Asad and US is onboard with that plan so we are lead to believe....

As I said 2 things - either External or internal push to favour the rebels will happen. Wait and see.

---------------
Meanwhile as Hezbollah and regime army try to take over Qusair in their second push after the first one dramatically failed - they admit progress is slow! Lol. Rebels are fighting back and have mined every street, house and even refrigerator per a Hezb fighter.

Death toll is over 75 and casualties are mounting. Its not just junior rank Hezb troops but even mid rank guys in the death toll.

habal · Post by **habal** » 25 May 2013 19:43

shyamd wrote:Surprise alliance between KSA and the Muslim Brotherhood sealed in Jeddah to remove iranian influence from Shatt Al Arab to the mediteranean and also to remove Bashar.

what rubbish ! they both were always in league, batting for western interests. Maybe they formalized an alliance now, but both were always tools.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 25 May 2013 20:24

In Depth: How Iranian weapons go through Syria to Hezbollah

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 25 May 2013 22:27

habal wrote: what rubbish ! they both were always in league, batting for western interests. Maybe they formalized an alliance now, but both were always tools.

lol

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 26 May 2013 02:13

BBC report:

Hezbollah leader Nasrallah vows victory in Syria

25 May 2013 Last updated at 19:03

The leader of the Lebanese Shia militant Hezbollah movement, Hassan Nasrallah, has promised his supporters they will prevail in Syria, where they are backing President Bashar al-Assad.

"This battle is ours... and I promise you victory," he said in a TV address.

Syrian rebels in the besieged town of Qusair say they are under heavy bombardment from Hezbollah combatants.

The town is close to the Lebanese border, a conduit for both the government and rebels to get weapons.

In a televised speech from an undisclosed location, Mr Hasrallah said if Sunni Islamists took over in Syria, they would pose a threat to the entire Lebanese population - Shia and Sunni Muslims, as well as Christians.

He said his movement could never be aligned with Syrian rebels who, in his view, were supported by the United States and Israel.

Offensive intensified

Dozens of Hezbollah militants are said to have been killed fighting alongside Syrian troops in Qusair since 19 May, when government forces launched an offensive to recapture the rebel-held town.

Last week, US Secretary of State John Kerry said thousands of Hezbollah fighters were contributing significantly to the violence in Syria.

He added that Iran was actively supporting Hezbollah's involvement.

Iran and Hezbollah are predominantly Shia, while Mr Assad's Alawite sect is an offshoot of Shia Islam.

The week-long fighting in Qusair intensified early on Saturday, when activists reported heavy bombardments, including two ground-to-ground missiles and an air strike as well as artillery and rocket fire.

Syrian state media said the army had launched a three-pronged offensive in the north, centre and south of Qusair, and was making big advances, killing many rebel fighters.

Qusair is important for the Syrian government because it links the capital, Damascus, with the Alawite heartland on the Mediterranean coast. However, official media made no mention of the part played by Hezbollah.

The Lebanese group is also known to have lost a number of fighters in Qusair, prompting Lebanese President Michel Suleiman to warn the Shia militia against getting "bogged down in the sands of discord".

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a UK-based activist group that monitors the conflict, said at least 22 people including 18 rebels had been killed in the latest fighting in Qusair. Dozens had been wounded, it added.

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 26 May 2013 08:42

There are reports that the cannibal has been injured in Qusayr.

Mahendra · Post by **Mahendra** » 26 May 2013 13:21

evidence for that?

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 26 May 2013 14:01

Bahrain continues to simmer. BBC report:

Raid on Bahrain cleric's home draws thousands to sit-in

24 May 2013 Last updated at 18:08

Tens of thousands of Bahrainis have participated in a sit-in in protest at a raid on a senior Shia cleric's home.

The sit-in was called by al-Wefaq, Bahrain's largest opposition political society, after a late night raid on the home of Sheikh Isa Qassim.

Last week's raid provoked anger in the Shia Muslim community.

Sheikh Qassim is the most senior Shia cleric in the Gulf state. Bahrain has a majority Shia population but the ruling royal family is Sunni Muslim.

Friday's sit-in took place in Diraz near Sheikh Qassim's mosque. An observer told the BBC that police had made no attempt to stop protesters entering the town.

Al-Wefaq had called for a peaceful demonstration and there were no reports of violence.

Earlier in the day three Sunni political societies issued a statement denouncing a meeting Sheik Qassim had on Thursday with Rashad Hussain, a senior US state department official.

The societies claimed the meeting, the first ever by a high ranking US official with Sheik Qassim, was evidence that "with this (meeting), the position of the state department and the American government is increasingly exposed in its support for terrorist operations in Bahrain".

The societies and their supporters have long claimed that Sheikh Qassim, acting on Iran's behalf, is responsible for the ongoing unrest in the country.

Samudragupta · Post by **Samudragupta** » 26 May 2013 16:24

shyamd wrote:Surprise alliance between KSA and the Muslim Brotherhood sealed in Jeddah to remove iranian influence from Shatt Al Arab to the mediteranean and also to remove Bashar.

Why don't Egyptian army intervene in Syria first before talking big...i hope they are not thinking of another conflict with Israel...

Assad is going to win the war in Syria if no major Sunni country intervenes in Syria either Pakistan or Egypt the so called two pillars of Saudi security...Hezbollah and the induction of the Shia National Defence Force numbering close to 50000 trained by the Quds have changed the paradigm in Syria..Assad now has answer to Sunni method of urban warfare...Hezbollah is doing a fantastic job as a light infantry force and a much more better job than the Syrian Arab Army itself....

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 27 May 2013 01:40

Amnesty criticises the state of human rights in Qatar. ANSAmed report:

Human Rights: Amnesty International nixes Qatar

No free expression, torture and abuse of foreign workers
23 MAY, 15:24

(ANSAmed) - DOHA, MAY 23 - Amnesty International in its 2013 report denounced Qatar for repressing freedom of expression, torturing prisoners, discriminating against women, and violating the rights of foreign workers.

''Qatar posits itself as a defender of human rights abroad but denies them internally. It supported and continues to support the Arab Springs, but the poet who celebrated those springs remains incarcerated. This is an incoherent position'', Amnesty International Italy spokesperson Riccardo Noury told ANSAmed.

Qatar has sentenced poet Mohammed Rashid al-Ajami, also known as the Jasmine Poet, to life in prison for his ''Jasmine Poem'', which says that ''like Tunisia we all face a repressive elite''.

Qatari authorities found that phrase to be an incitement to overthrow the government. Qatar continues to repress freedom of expression, according to Amnesty. If approved, a media bill currently under debate ''would make all media dependent on the approval of a government authority with powers to remove articles and ban publication'', the Amnesty report said. While Qatar ratified the UN Convention against Torture, former detainees claimed they suffered torture and degrading treatment such as ''beatings, being suspended by the limbs, being forced to stand for hours, sleep deprivation, being held in isolation in tiny cells, and being exposed to the cold for long periods by interrogators hoping to obtain confessions'', the report said. Local authorities have done nothing to investigate these claims, Amnesty said.

Foreign workers continue to suffer rights violations and various forms of abuse, including sexual abuse, according to Amnesty. ''Foreign workers, who make up 90% of the labor force in Qatar, continue to be exploited and subjected to abuse by their employers in spite of the country's 2004 labor law, which the authorities do not apply'', the report said. (ANSAmed).

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 27 May 2013 19:30

Syrian refugees fleeing Qusayr are reportedly quoted as saying "we could have put up the regime's
bombardment for months, but when Hezbollah fighers joined the attack it made our life miserable,
and hence we are fleeing".

It shows how much teeth Hez has added to the regime's fight. May be the high Hez casualty is due
to the ferocity of the fight too.

Samudragupta · Post by **Samudragupta** » 27 May 2013 20:58

Hezbollah is trained to fight an intense defensive war against the Israelis...Here in this case they are fighting an intense offensive war against the Salafis...In as much they started the mission as a an irregular millitia aiding the SAA...once they got accustomed with the warfare in Syria they transformed themselves more akin to a light and mobile infantry battalions...now in al-Qusayr that tactics has been changed to Guerrilla urban warfare which they are expert at....it is said that even the furniture in the individual houses are booby trapped and that's the reason of casualties from for Hezbollah... the point is if Hezbollah wins this war which it seems it will..Nasarallah will become the master of Levant even exceeding the Assad....we are probably going to see a Greater Lebanon stretching from Israeli border to entire stretch of Mediterranean coast.... this will bring Egyptians in this...and we are going to see battle of Kadesh 2.0 reloaded....BTW the city of Kadesh was very near to al-Qusayr the current location of conflict....

Surya · Post by **Surya** » 27 May 2013 21:24

references to Hezb fighting in Syria

tactics etc??

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 28 May 2013 00:27

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/20 ... -in-syria/
McCain visits rebels in Syria

Sen. John McCain visited rebels in Syria on Monday, his communications director confirmed to CNN, making the Arizona Republican the highest ranking elected official from the United States to visit the war-torn country since its civil war began over two years ago.
Brian Rogers confirmed a report that originally appeared on The Daily Beast, which indicated McCain entered Syria through Turkey, and remained in the country for several hours.
While in Syria, McCain met with Gen. Salem Idris, the leader of the Supreme Military Council of the Free Syrian Army, according to the Daily Beast. He also met with other rebel leaders who traveled the country to meet him.McCain is the leading voice in Congress for a greater U.S. role in ending Syria's civil war, which has been waged for more than two years. He has suggested establishing "safe zones" for Syria's rebels and taking out the regime's air assets, along with providing lethal weapons to Syria's opposition.In their meeting with McCain, leaders of the Syrian rebel forces pressed the United States to provide them with weapons to continue their fight against Syrian President Bashar al Assad. They also called for establishing no-fly zones and for airstrikes against Assad's regime, according to the Daily Beast's report.MORE: Poll shows worries about Syrian civil war on the rise
His visit came shortly before U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry was scheduled to meet in Paris regarding Syria with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. For months during the Syrian war, Russia appeared to be supporting the country's president, Bashar al-Assad. But that tide seems to be turning, at least gaining some wiggle room for the Russians to help broker an end to the violence.
The U.N. estimates that more than 70,000 Syrians have been killed since anti-government protests in March 2011 led to a fierce government crackdown, an armed uprising and a bloody civil war. The war has uprooted a quarter of the country's 22 million civilians.Republicans and Democrats alike have called on President Barack Obama to ramp up support for Syrian rebels, who now receive nonlethal aid like food and medicine from the United States. In early April that aid was stepped up to include equipment such as body armor, night vision goggles and other military equipment that is considered defensive in nature.Long an advocate of a more pronounced American effort in Syria, McCain has previously visited camps in Jordan that have harbored massive waves of Syrian refugees. He described one of those camps last month on NBC's "Meet the Press.""This woman who was a schoolteacher said, 'Sen. McCain, do you see these children here? They're going to take revenge on those people who refused to help them,' " McCain recalled. "They're angry and bitter. And that legacy could last for a long time too, unless we assist them."But others, including lawmakers from both parties and Obama's administration, have said American arms flowing into Syria could end up in the hands of terrorists.Officials also say that Iranian-backed militias and Hezbollah units could be operating in the country and potentially infiltrating the rebel opposition.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 28 May 2013 02:52

"Safe zones" for Syrian "rebels! The EU is divided about arming the rebels,with Britain and France wanting to do so desperately-sell arms that the Qataris and Saudis will finance,helping their sliding economies,while the rest of the EU are firmly against more :madness of King Cameron",after the blowback of Tony B.Liar and his infamous lies about Saddam's WMD.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/ma ... ms-embargo
Syria: EU split over push to lift rebel arms embargo

Britain and France argue that supplying arms to 'moderates' will lead to less killing, but others say it will only escalate conflict

Patrick Wintour and Ian Traynor
guardian.co.uk, Monday 27 May 2013

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 28 May 2013 09:08

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/28/world ... .html?_r=0
By Inserting Itself Into Syrian War, Hezbollah Makes Dramatic Gamble

BEIRUT, Lebanon — Fighting a pre-emptive war against foreign jihadists is not the usual mission for Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant group best known for confronting Israel. So when its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, explained why he was sending fighters into Syria, he took care to remind his followers that they were not “living in Djibouti” but on the border of a country whose two-year uprising Hezbollah sees as a threat to its existence. With its plunge into the Syrian civil war, Hezbollah is taking its followers in an unaccustomed direction, in a gamble that could help rescue it from that threat, bringing it new power and confidence, or end in a defeat with wide repercussions. Hezbollah is betting its prestige and security on the effort to crush a Syrian rebellion that is detested by Hezbollah’s Shiite Muslim base, but popular with the group’s Lebanese rivals and with much of the Sunni majority in the wider Arab world. Hezbollah’s biggest stake in the conflict is the same as that of its ally, Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad: survival. The group relies on Syria to provide a conduit for arms from its main patron, Iran. Preserving that flow is a matter of life or death for Hezbollah, as its leaders have made clear.
To justify the unexpected new sacrifices it is asking from its followers, Hezbollah has framed the risky intervention in Syria as crucial to safeguarding its avowed core missions: challenging Israel, empowering its Shiite community and protecting Lebanon. But if it fails, by Hezbollah’s own assessment the fallout could jeopardize all three of those missions. That would leave the group weakened, with bridges burned at home and abroad, amid growing fears of a regional war between Sunnis and Shiites. The first test case is the battle for Qusayr, near the Lebanese border, where Hezbollah and the Syrian government expected a lightning victory that is already more than a week in coming. For outgunned rebels still hanging on, who include many homegrown Qusayr fighters, the battle has taken on an Alamo-like significance. If Hezbollah succeeds in leading the Syrian Army to victory in Qusayr, the group that came to prominence as a guerrilla force fighting Israeli occupation in its own hills and village could claim a previously unknown capacity to assault and hold territory. That could add to its deterrent power against its primary foe, Israel, adding credibility to its threats to invade northern Israel in a future conflict. But if it loses, or fails to win quickly and decisively, Hezbollah could suffer a blow to its military luster not unlike the one it inflicted on Israel in 2006a victorious Hezbollah would hold new sway in its tripartite alliance with Iran and Syria, analysts say. It would retain or increase its dominance in Lebanon. It would never likely regain all the pan-Arab popularity it enjoyed before siding with Mr. Assad, but it could take credit for defeating extremist groups among the rebels that worry the West, more-secular Arabs and the Shiite world alike.
Kamel Wazne, founder of the Center for American Strategic Studies in Beirut, said Hezbollah had calculated that failing to act was riskier than taking the fight to Syria. He added that in any case, “they believe that victory is from God, and losses are also from God.” “We will continue this road until the end, we will take the responsibility, and we will make all the sacrifices,” Mr. Nasrallah told his supporters on Saturday. “We will be victorious

.”

habal · Post by **habal** » 28 May 2013 10:17

Rebels routed in Qusayr.

Ghouta, Hezbollah’s next target in Syria?
Tuesday, 28 May 2013
A Syrian army tank keeps its position during a battle against opposition fighters in the city of Qusayr, in Syria’s central Homs province, on May 25, 2013. (AFP)

Al Arabiya
Heavy clashes between the Lebanese Shiite group Hezbollah and Syrian rebels have been taking place in a Damascus district, Ghouta, since Monday, activists said.
Recent reports of clashes in Ghouta emerged as opposition fighters battled President Bashar al-Assad’s forces aided by Hezbollah for control of the key rebel stronghold of Qusayr, a Syrian town near the Lebanese border.
The Shiite groups’ involvement in the Syrian civil war has stirred international condemnation with U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon stating that he was “deeply concerned” by Hezbollah’s role.
Activists said that thousands of Hezbollah fighters were training in an air force intelligence center in Al-Masraf region near Damascus International Airport, adding that the Lebanese group has taken over nine towns in the Al-Murj area neighboring Ghouta.
...

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/mi ... yria-.html

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 28 May 2013 12:55

The recent spate of bomb attacks in Syria,killing hundreds,esp. Shias,is not just a Sunni-Shia power-sharing spat.The Sunni-Shioa fault lines are being deliberately manipulated by the west to keep Iran engaged in its interests in predominantly Shiite Iraq,diverting its attention from events in Syria,where it is the Assad regime's most loyal supporter. The latest EU resolution to arm the Syrian "rebels",is a highly detrimental decision which will plunge the country into further descent into the abyss.The Russians are playing a carrot-and-stick game with the west in supplying highly sophisticated arms to the Syrian regime,and will view this latest decision of the EU,primarily by Britain and France as another highly provocative act and will certainly up the ante.Already Russian naval forces are berthed in Syrian ports,operating in its coastal waters to deter any sea-based invasion by western forces.With the latest moves by the west,one is sure to see a rapidly growing military involvement by Russia in the region,as we saw decades ago in Egypt,where Russian technical advisers supervised the Egyptian SAM sites.The supply of S-300 highly capable SAMs to Syria will certainly need Russian techncial "advisers",whose number is sure to grow in strength.Pres. Putin is not a "scaredy cat" like someone we know in our land only too well!

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 33685.html

wave of car bombings has torn through mostly Shia Muslim neighbourhoods of Baghdad, leaving at least 66 people dead.

Iraq's security is rapidly deteriorating as sectarian tensions increase, exacerbated by months of Sunni-led anti-government protests and the war in neighbouring Syria. More than 350 people have died in two weeks of bloodshed.

There was no immediate claim of responsibility for yesterday's violence but the attacks bore the hallmarks of al-Qa'ida's Iraqi arm. The Islamic State of Iraq frequently uses car bombs and co-ordinated blasts in an effort to undermine Iraqis' confidence in the Shia-led government.

Wave of bomb attacks in Shia districts of Baghdad kills 66 people

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 28 May 2013 15:14

Russia S-300 missile exports may stave off Syrian invasion - diplomat

Russian deliveries of S-300 defensive surface-to-air missile systems to Damascus could help prevent any possible intervention by external forces in the Syrian conflict, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said at a press conference in Moscow.

"In our opinion, these deliveries play a stabilizing role. We believe that such steps will largely help stop certain hotheads from turning it into a possible international conflict, from considering a scenario that would make this conflict international with the involvement of external forces that are not averse to such ideas," he said.

"We are speaking about deliveries of defensive weapons to the government of this country with the aim of protecting facilities and contingents of soldiers," Ryabkov said.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 28 May 2013 15:57

Some sources say that the missiles are already in Syria,secretly hidden and now that the EU has lifted the ban on supplying weapons to the "rebels",actually read the mercenary forces of the Saudis and Qataris,with their western advisers,one is sure to see the "equal and opposite reaction" from Russia and the friends of the Syrian regime. It is going to be Syria and the un-Holy Land,that is going to be the battleground that will determine the practicality of the odious western concept of "regime change" through the various "springs" of blood that the west has let flow.It is why Russia has planted its stake firmly in Syria.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 28 May 2013 16:30

Most of the rebel fighter that fought in Chechnya were Sunni's and much of them were funded by Saudis .....any rebel take over is considered as threat of terror strike in Russian own territory .....also many Chechnians are right now fighting with rebel camp agaisnt Bashar ....after the end of conflict they are expected to come back battle hardened to fight against the Russian.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 28 May 2013 18:58

Russia to send missiles to deter "hotheads"

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/middle- ... ve-updates

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 28 May 2013 19:15

Russia already told Netanyahu that they will give the Syrians a more upgraded version of the S300 that the syrians already possessed. It just increases the risk for the Israeli's, its documented already that the Israelis been practicing on the Greek S300 system. I can't see anyone really being deterred by this move, it just makes it slightly riskier. Probably the most concerning is the delivery of Yakhont.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 28 May 2013 20:24

If no one is dettered by S-300 why does Israel keep complaining of S-300 sale to Iran or Syria ?

I think the Hot Heads referred to Russian Deputy FM is likely Israel and S-300 would directly impact Israel more than any body.

Yakhont will be deployed in port of Tartus where Russian Mediterranean Fleet is deployed compromising 5-7 capital ships and logistics vessel , Since its primary anti-ship missile of long distance.

Most likely if NATO or Israel has to have any realistic chance of tilting the war in Arabs Sunni favour then it has to take on and take out Russian military deployed in the area and also there are close to lakh Russian citizen in Syria

With the overt Hizbollah assistance to SAA and with radical elements in rebel already showing its true colour , it would put any die hard western supporters into doubt , I doubt any of the Alwaite , Shia , Christian and other minority in Syria will feel safe with rebels ruling Syria .... irrespect if Assad exist or doesnt .....most likely a compromise dialog solution is the only option with Assad stepping down in favour of keeping its own Allawite , Sunni , Christian and Russian interest in the region taking into account.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 28 May 2013 20:37

So far the big picture is the West and israel wants Assad out of power.
However they don't want the current fundamentlast Sunni rebels to win.

From Assad's point of view so long as the fundamentalists dont get full air and ground troop support he can survive and eventually defeat them.

The S300s are to prevent air attacks from others.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 28 May 2013 20:47

Assad will have to step down in any compromise thats a given the only thing he and his supporters wont like to see he go out Gadaffi style ......he would probably see his community get a good deal in return for him stepping down and his deputy taking over.

Its probably too naive for West and Sunni Arabs to target him and make him focal point of every thing , what if he steps down and his deputy and SAA continue fighting the rebels who will they ask to step down next ? ....the fight is not about Assad but about trying to win over Damascus and establish a Sunni majority state bank rolled by Saudi Bahrain and West.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 28 May 2013 20:50

Austin wrote:If no one is dettered by S-300 why does Israel keep complaining of S-300 sale to Iran or Syria ?

I think the Hot Heads referred to Russian Deputy FM is likely Israel and S-300 would directly impact Israel more than any body.

Yakhont will be deployed in port of Tartus where Russian Mediterranean Fleet is deployed compromising 5-7 capital ships and logistics vessel , Since its primary anti-ship missile of long distance.

Most likely if NATO or Israel has to have any realistic chance of tilting the war in Arabs Sunni favour then it has to take on and take out Russian military deployed in the area and also there are close to lakh Russian citizen in Syria

With the overt Hizbollah assistance to SAA and with radical elements in rebel already showing its true colour , it would put any die hard western supporters into doubt , I doubt any of the Alwaite , Shia , Christian and other minority in Syria will feel safe with rebels ruling Syria .... irrespect if Assad exist or doesnt .....most likely a compromise dialog solution is the only option with Assad stepping down in favour of keeping its own Allawite , Sunni , Christian and Russian interest in the region taking into account.

Israel is unhappy because the S300 range can cover the north of Israel and the airbase in the north.

They already offered Rus, alawite control of security sector. Rus said no.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 28 May 2013 21:36

Are we inching by the day,with even more sophisticated arms introduced into the region, a future situ as dangerous as the Cuban Missile Crisis.The more pressure the West tries to apply upon Assad,the more will the Russians resist the machinations of the west and counter then by introducing even more sophisticated weapons into Syria,say for example tactical missiles yet in its arsenal.Here is a 6 month old report on the same.

Syrian regime reportedly using wide range of tactical ballistic missiles
By LWJ StaffDecember 29, 2012 10:24 AM

The regime of President Bashar al Assad fired at least two Iranian-made, short-range ballistic missiles earlier this week, according to two unnamed US military officials who spoke with CNN yesterday.

The missiles in question are the Iranian-made Fateh A-110 model -- a guided, short-range, surface-to-surface ballistic missile capable of traveling no more than 210 kilometers -- and are markedly more accurate than the larger, older, Scud missile variants also used by Assad's regime.

Syrian military forces reportedly fired a wide range of tactical ballistic missiles this month, with launches occurring during the first week of December, on Dec. 20, and again on Dec. 22, although a NATO spokesman was unable to confirm if or exactly when the Fateh A-110 missiles were fired.

Some of the regime's Scud missiles, which are notoriously inaccurate due to antiquated and rudimentary guidance systems, struck near the Turkish border in mid-December.

Around Dec. 20, unconfirmed reports claimed that a Scud missile fired by Syrian military forces had struck close to Marea, a town in a rebel-held area north of Aleppo near the Turkish border, but the missile apparently missed its target and there were no reports of casualties. The threat to Turkey's national security posed by Syrian short-range tactical ballistic missiles prompted the US to deploy two Patriot missile batteries and 400 personnel to Turkey. The Netherlands and Germany also offered to deploy two Patriot missile batteries each to Turkey, and now Turkish officials have announced that the six Patriot batteries will be fully operational in the southern cities of Gaziantep, Kahramanmaras, and Adana by the end of January.

Throughout most of December, Western intelligence and military officials have been sounding the alarm that "a desperate regime approaching collapse" had resorted to firing tactical short-range ballistic missiles against "its own people" -- in other words, hitting rebel-controlled areas. Most of these missile launches were thought to be targeting rebel forces in or near the besieged northern city of Aleppo. [See Threat Matrix, Al Nusrah Front on the offensive in Aleppo].

It is believed that Syrian forces were firing Scud missiles and launching airstrikes against al Qaeda-affiliated Al Nusrah Front insurgents near Aleppo.

Unconfirmed video footage shows a possible Scud missile, or Scud variant like the Hwasong-6 missile, being fired by Syrian military forces on Dec. 13.

The footage above purportedly shows a Scud missile or Scud variant, possibly a Hwasong-6, being launched from the An Nasiriyah Air Base near Damascus toward rebel-held positions in northern Syria on or around Dec. 13. At about that time, al Qaeda-affiliated Al Nusrah Front fighters were maneuvering against the Syrian regime's military-industrial complex at the Al Safira air defense base and the big chemical weapons facility thought to be located adjacent to the base. The sprawling Al Safira complex is located just south of Aleppo City. The battle for Al Safira, and apparently the firing of Scud missiles, continued through and past Dec. 21, when Al Nusrah Front insurgents had encroached dangerously close to the Al Safira complex -- apparently less than a mile from its perimeter fence.

Read more: http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-ma ... z2UbbGdf3b

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 28 May 2013 21:41

shyamd wrote: Israel is unhappy because the S300 range can cover the north of Israel and the airbase in the north.

They already offered Rus, alawite control of security sector. Rus said no.

Let them be unhappy they are perputually unhappy over one thing or the other , Absolute security for one is absolute insecurity to the other. Israel is a victim of its own fear psychosis and its perhaps their destiny.

Who are they to offer any thing to Russian , its just creative imagination , the fate of Syria will be decided by its own people. Syria is not a land to be bartered away by winners and looser.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 28 May 2013 23:01

Israel didn't offer that, it was the US/SNC.

Israel prefers if Asad stays but is weakened.

-----
As it looks at the moment Syrian opposition aren't in favour of attending Geneva II because they mistakenly think that they will lose the support of the men fighting in the ground.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 29 May 2013 01:00

The Daily Beast | Exclusive: Barack Obama Asks Pentagon for Syrian No Fly Zone Plan http://t.co/cdJJEsO7Xk

Message to Russia, if Geneva II fails, we are gonna back the rebels. I have been consistently reporting the plans are already ready for some time, so the making this into "Exclusive" is to send the message to Russia, whats gonna happen if this fails. Whether they do or not is a diff matter of course.

Another problem is they have to take out the chem weapons first, otherwise asad will use it wholesale as a response to "external aggression"

----
Meanwhile in Istanbul talks in the SNC are going to last till tomorrow. Qatari foreign minister turns up and says they and KSA have agreed on matters, and all of sudden whole thing turns 180 degrees. Qatar decides to drop their candidate (everyone had a problem with it including the west) and internal structure of the SNC is being debated. Consensus on a leader. Looks like they will be going to Geneva 2.
-------------
Meanwhile in Qusayr: Hezbollah getting their ass handed to it by ragtag rebels who are from the town itself plus the small contingent of jihadi groups who were already present in the town...

Syria: rebels cling on to Qusayr

A major assault by Syrian regime troops and fighters from the Lebanese Shia militia Hizbollah has failed to dislodge rebels from the key town of Qusayr, 10 days after it began, accounts and videos from both sides suggest.

By Ruth Sherlock, Beirut and Magdy Samaan and Richard Spencer in Cairo6:00PM BST 28 May 2013

The Assad regime predicted a speedy victory after it attempted to storm Qusayr near the Lebanese border a week last Sunday, claiming to have almost immediately taken 80 per cent of the town.
Videos posted from the rebel side in recent days suggest that in fact they are now tied down in the east side of Qusayr and on the outskirts elsewhere. Accosrding to their own and Hizbollah accounts, the attack was stymied by Syrian rebels who booby-trapped the town's entrances and emerged from tunnels to ambush attackers who thought they had fought their way to the centre.
"The revolutionary fighters are still holding the town, except the area of the security buildings on the east side, which represents around 20 per cent," a rebel spokesman, Hadi al-Abdullah, said from inside the town. "We are still standing despite the tight siege. The Hizbollah fighters are not familiar with the entrances and exits, and that allowed us to trap them in ambushes."
His account appeared to be corroborated by recent videos taken of regime frontlines in recognisable areas and posted online.
Parts of his account have been also confirmed by interviews given by Hizbollah to journalists in Lebanon.

According to Hizbollah sources talking to the Al-Monitor news website, rebels waited until the elite forces who led the attack were replaced by less experienced support fighters. They were then struck by booby-traps, fighters emerging from hidden underground tunnels, and snipers armed with advanced rifles that "allowed them to pick off a number of Hizbollah fighters from long distances".

The fight for Qusayr has become a key battle, with the regime determined to cut off what has been used as a supply way-point from a Sunni district of north-east Lebanon for rebels operating throughout Homs province.
Gen Selim Idris, the head of the Revolutionary Military Council, yesterday warned Hizbollah that it had "24 hours to withdraw from Syria" saying they would "take all measures to hunt Hizbollah, even in hell".
Earlier, three Lebanese soldiers were killed near the border close to Qusayr, while nine rockets fired in two days at a Hizbollah-controlled town in Lebanon, Hermel, killed one woman and injured seven others.
Inside Qusayr, rebels are prepared to admit that Hizbollah and the regime have made some slow advances. Omar al-Homsi, a defected regime soldier fighting with the opposition, said he had heard regime troops arresting residents as they moved from house to house over intercepted walky-talky messages.
Hadi al-Abdullah said two FSA fighters and two civilians were killed on Tuesday morning, but added that for the first time a gap in the encirclement of the town had opened up, allowing them to evacuate several hundred non-combatants.
Nonetheless, there remains up to 20,000 civilians inside the town, according to other rebels. Video shows a number of children, including a baby, being treated for shellfire injuries.
The rebels are now relying on relief from a force of men sent down from Aleppo. But just as the pro-Assad forces are stuck on the outskirts of town, the rebel reinforcements are stuck on the outer perimeter of the regime's encirclement.
"There are FSA battalions trying to enter the city but they still can't," Hadi al-Abdullah said. "There is no presence of Asaad troops in Qusayr - they withdrew completely three days ago. Now Hizbollah is in complete charge of operations."

Lol and in 10 days and all the might of asad and hezbollah, the evidence suggests they have only taken 20% of the city.

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 29 May 2013 05:57

The S300s are to prevent air attacks from others.

A question for garoos. Has S300 been used/tested/faught against in recent wars? What is S300 scared of?

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 29 May 2013 10:11

Israel warns Russia...understood to mean that it would intercept and destroy Russiana arms shiupments to Syria.The escalation of the conflict is most undesirable,as it is turning out to be a proxy war between the west and Russia and China,reminiscent of Cold War days.If the west is going to continue to support and arm the "rebels",also using the Saudis and Qataris,then Russia has every right to give the Syrians defensive weapons with which to defend itself.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/ma ... ian-rebels
Russia to deliver arms to Syria as fears rise of proxy war
Israel's defence minister signals that its military is prepared to strike shipments of advanced Russian weapons to Syria

News
World news
Israel

Russia to deliver arms to Syria as fears rise of proxy war

Israel's defence minister signals that its military is prepared to strike shipments of advanced Russian weapons to Syria

Julian Borger in Ankara and Dan Roberts in Washington
The Guardian, Tuesday 28 May 2013 22.01 BST

Israel defence secretary Moshe Ya'alon (left) with his US counterpart, Chuck Hagel. The EU has agreed to lift its arms embargo on Syria's rebels. Photograph: Reuters

Russia said on Tuesday that it would supply one of its most advanced anti-aircraft missiles to the Syrian government hours after the EU ended its arms embargo on the country's rebels, raising the prospect of a rapidly escalating proxy war in the region if peace talks fail in Geneva next month.

Israel quickly issued a thinly veiled warning that it would bomb the Russian S-300s if they were deployed in Syria as such a move would bring the advanced guided missiles within range of civilian and military planes in Israeli air space.

"The shipments haven't set out yet and I hope they won't," Moshe Ya'alon, the Israeli defence minister, said. "If they do arrive in Syria, God forbid, we'll know what to do."
British Foreign Secretary William Hague visits Serbia William Hague says the UK will not make a decision on sending arms to Syria until after the Geneva talks. Photograph: Koca Sulejmanovic/EPA

Russia's deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, argued that the delivery of the S-300 system had been previously agreed with the Syrian government in Damascus and would be a "stabilising factor" that could dissuade "some hotheads" from entering the conflict. That appeared to be a reference to the UK and France, who pushed through the lifting of the EU embargo on Monday night and are the only European countries currently considering arming the rebel Free Syrian Army (FSA).

The move by Moscow was criticised by the White House, which said arming the Syrian government did "not bring the country closer to the desired political transition" that it deserved.

Washington welcomed the EU move to suspend its arms embargo. State department spokesman Patrick Ventrell said it was helpful because it sent a "message to the Assad regime". But the developments put Washington in the difficult spot of condemning Russian arms sales while appearing to condone potential EU arms sales.

Ventrell insisted the US was "co-ordinating" with its allies but said it had still not made a decision about whether it should supply weapons to the rebels. US officials declined to comment on whether or not there was any irritation with Europe and insisted they were still hopeful that the Geneva peace talks, tentatively scheduled for mid-June, could go ahead.

Britain and France said that, despite Monday night's divisive vote in Brussels, they had not yet taken the decision to send arms and would not do so at least until after the Geneva talks.

"We have said, we have made our own commitments, that at this stage, as we work for the Geneva conference, we are not taking any decision to send any arms to anyone," said William Hague, the foreign secretary.

British officials said the lifting of the embargo had a political purpose, raising the pressure on President Bashar al-Assad and his supporters, Russia and Iran, to make concessions in Geneva, most importantly to agree not to play a role in a transitional Syrian government. If that fails, the officials said western arms supplies would strengthen moderate elements in the armed opposition currently outgunned and out-financed by jihadist groups.
Free Syrian Army fighters walk on rubble of damaged buildings in Juret al-Shayah in Homs Free Syrian Army fighters walk through Homs. Photograph: Yazan Homsy/Reuters

"Whoever controls logistics will command loyalty," a senior British official said. "It's about dragging some of these fighters back from the extremists."

The official stressed that any future British arms supplies would not include portable anti-aircraft missiles. "There is not going to be an airliner brought down by some weapon we provide," he said.

The leading UK role in lifting the arms embargo was fiercely criticised by Labour at Westminster.

Douglas Alexander, the shadow foreign secretary, said: "Russia's announcement that it will send S-300 anti-aircraft missiles to President Assad further underlines the real risks of this conflict escalating into a regional war by proxy, leading to further suffering for the Syrian people."

Downing Street refused to say whether MPs would be given a chance to vote on any decision to send arms to the rebels. "What we are doing is sending a signal, loud and clear, to the regime," said a spokesman.

Although Moscow's declaration was a riposte to the decision in Brussels, analysts pointed out that it would take more than a year for S-300 missiles to become operational, if they were deployed at all.

"Does Russia have S-300 batteries ready to go?" said Michael Elleman, a missile expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Bahrain. "I'm not sure that it does. Is it going to send engineers to integrate it with existing [air defence] architecture? Will they send trainers for the one to two years it takes to train people to use it? This seems more like an exercise in political signalling to me, saying: 'Hands off Syria.'"

Daniel Levy, at the European Council on Foreign Relations, argued that, like the Russian announcement, there could be more posturing than substance in the lifting of the EU arms embargo as any eventual weapons deliveries would be limited by legal and political constraints.

"Given that the impact of such arming would anyway be relatively minor, the EU foreign ministers' meeting was akin to a very public discussion of how best to bluff a weak hand in a poker match – not a good idea," Levy said.

In Ankara, a senior Turkish official portrayed the Geneva talks as a make-or-break moment to take practical steps towards the creation of transitional government without Assad and his closest entourage, unlike the first round of Geneva talks last year.

"If Geneva II fails, the opposition, the Free Syrian Army, will get all they need, including sophisticated arms," the official said. "This will be the last diplomatic channel. There won't be another chance for the regime to negotiate its role in a transitional government."

He said the key factor would be the US position on backing the rebels if Geneva failed to bring progress.

At the moment, Washington is only providing non-lethal assistance to the FSA, but the Turkish official said President Barack Obama showed readiness to change policy at his meeting earlier this month with the Turkish prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

"The US is stepping up its efforts and its close contacts it keeps with [FSA commander] Salim Idriss tells you something about American intentions," he said.

The Syrian opposition is hopeful that the visit by Senator John McCain to rebel-held areas in northern Syria over the weekend would increase the political pressure on the Obama administration to send arms.

However, the US administration played down the significance of the McCain visit. A spokesman said the White House was aware McCain was planning the trip to see rebel leaders and looked forward to "speaking to him upon his return".

The opposition Syrian National Coalition is holding fractious internal debates in Istanbul over its leadership and whether or not it should attend the Geneva talks. However, Turkish officials say they are confident that there will be opposition representation.

It is unclear, however, whether Iran will attend in the face of determined Saudi opposition to their participation. Riyadh has threatened to boycott the talks if Iran attends, officials in Ankara said. Russia and some Syrian opposition groups argue that Tehran has to be included in view of its heavy involvement on the conflict. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards are training pro-government militias to fight alongside the Syrian regular army.

"If Iran doesn't come to Geneva, then that will be confirmation that it is a purely cosmetic exercise," a senior Syrian opposition official said.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 29 May 2013 10:37

As of yesterday Qusayr is 70 % control of SAA.

Militants give Hezbollah 24-hour deadline to stop assisting Syria army

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 29 May 2013 11:12

^^ false per Hezbollah's own accounts.

Their state TV said they took Qusayr last week, can't go by what they say.