Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

[Gerard]

CIA drone attacks produce America's own unlawful combatants

In terms of international armed conflict, those CIA agents are, unlike their military counterparts but like the fighters they target, unlawful combatants. No less than their insurgent targets, they are fighters without uniforms or insignia, directly participating in hostilities, employing armed force contrary to the laws and customs of war. Even if they are sitting in Langley, the CIA pilots are civilians violating the requirement of distinction, a core concept of armed conflict, as they directly participate in hostilities.

[skher]

Simple si baat:

India wants Afghanistan to do for India what Pakistan is doing for china, so that India can concentrate on Economy and China in that order.

Such an objective would require India to extend the help that China did to Pakistan. Are we ready? Then is Karzai the right horse?

IMHO, the long term help India has extended to Afghanistan is as ambitious, generous and sustained as China's assistance to Pakistan,if not more.

The difference lies in the extent of direct military aid,number of monies and the focus towards building civilian institutions (applying lessons from J&K).

About President Karzai, he is currently the only horse for everyone concerned...and he has ensured that status for himself in the years to come.


India 'close friend', Pak 'conjoined twin' of Afghanistan: Karzai

http://www.dnaindia.com/world/report_in ... ai_1357959


Hamid Karzai turns down Pak's offer to train Afghan National Army

http://www.dnaindia.com/world/report_ha ... my_1358307

[ramana]

Nightwatch 3/11/10

Afghanistan-Pakistan: Update. Afghan President Karzai is visiting Pakistan and wants the Islamabad government to hand over captured Afghan Taliban commander Mullah Berader. He also insisted Afghanistan is dedicated to pursuing peace talks with the militants despite lukewarm enthusiasm from the U.S., The Associated Press reported.

Karzai said his government is pursuing a fundamentally changed policy approach together with Pakistan, working toward stability in both countries. He said his government had contacts within the Taliban leadership "as high as you wish to go" but would not say whether that included Mullah Omar. He reiterated his willingness to talk to Omar "Afghan to Afghan."

Pakistani Prime Minister Gilani said he and Afghan President Hamid Karzai discussed the turning over of senior Taliban leaders such as Mullah Berader. Gilani said he has not made a decision on the issue, and that once legal experts have studied it, Afghanistan will be notified.

Karzai had to ask and Gilani had to dissemble. Pakistan will share Berader’s disclosures but will not share Berader until after he is done talking.

[NRao]

.........................

Envoy: U.S.-Pakistan relations significantly improved

"All of this, plus the recognition that the distinction between Afghan Taliban and Pakistan Taliban - if it ever existed - is eroded, has led the Pakistanis to take a very much more forward leaning position," Holbrooke said. "Plus, above all, the backlash from the (Taliban's) attacks in places like Lahore or Rawalpindi, Islamabad, Kashmir, Karachi, have all contributed to an evolution."

There you go. You now know why all these Tablibans are being arrested. The K word is out there of CNN's GPS!!!!

Now on to a stable democracy in 2 months:

Holbrooke cited the arrest of the Taliban's No. 2 official, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, as evidence of Pakistan's evolution from a country on the verge of collapse to a more stable political system now.

First Islamic democracy.

Folks, history being made. WholeBrokes and Pakistan.

[shyamd]

From London, Taliban Is Invited to "Reintegrate"
But Taliban Already Holds the Whip Hand

Afghan special forces

The representatives of 70 governments, including Afghan president Hamid Karzai, who convened in London to decide on the future of Afghanistan, had big plans for persuading at least parts of the Taliban to lay down arms.

Their only trouble was that they were not speaking from a position of strength. The logic behind their plans was simply this: We can't beat them in the field, so let's make them an offer they can't refuse of talks for the Taliban's reintegration in government.

Can't they?

Taliban lost no time in dismissing the London conference as a "propaganda ploy."

This was entirely predictable, say DEBKA-Net-Weekly's military and intelligence sources - first, because they have already constructed their own mini-governments in several Afghan provinces and second, because they want no part in the admittedly corrupt administration headed by the US-propped Karzai, some of whose ministers parliament refuses to endorse.

In contrast with the Bush administration, whose objective was to destroy Saddam Hussein's machinery of government in Baghdad, President Barack Obama seven years later says his goal is not to defeat the Taliban but only to weaken it so that Afghanistan ceases to be a base of terror and the insurgents are forced to consider a power-sharing deal in Kabul.

So who is weak and who strong?

To resist US military efforts to sap its strength, the Taliban ha? gone on the offensive - although the winter months are customarily a time for its fighters to regroup and rest. It is fighting ferociously to prove that Taliban's leaders do not need invitations from the Americans or NATO - and certainly not Karzai - to join Afghanistan's political machinery. They are already there.


Taliban's parallel government: a Sharia-ruled regime


In Wardak Province, just 50 kilometers from the Afghan capital of Kabul and athwart the main Kabul-Kandahar highway, Taliban has installed a parallel government ruled by Sharia law.

It consists of provincial governors, police chiefs, regional officials and judges whose powers go a lot further than the central government's writ. They collect taxes, operate a parallel judicial system of clerics, who adjudicate in family disputes, controversies over land and other property and try murderers.

They sentence convicted felons to flagellation, amputations of hands or executions. The death penalty is handed down frequently because prison space is short.

The Taliban government also recruits fighters, trains them and deploys them against Afghan and NATO forces.

This parallel governing apparatus is expanding at the expense of the Karzai government, whose control of territory is correspondingly shrinking.

Not surprisingly, therefore, US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates set the leitmotif for the London conference Friday, January 22, when he told Pakistani reporters in Islamabad: “The United States recognizes that the Taliban are now part of the political fabric of Afghanistan, but they must be prepared to play a legitimate role before they can reconcile with the Afghan government.”

In an interview with the Financial Times published Monday Jan. 25 Gen. Stanley McChrystal, the top US and NATO commander in Afghanistan, followed Gates by saying that high-level political negotiations with Taliban leaders could help bring an end to the conflict.


Pakistan vetoes US request for new front


When asked if senior Taliban leaders might eventually become government members in Kabul, McChrystal said “I think that anybody who dedicates themselves to the future and not the past, and anybody whose future is focused on the right kinds of things for Afghanistan,” might participate in government.

Wednesday, January 27, the day before the London conference, American media ran a leak from a briefing by the top U.S. intelligence official in Afghanistan, Maj. Gen. Michael Flynn:

The General warns that the "situation is serious," and stressed that his assessment is that the Taliban's "organizational capabilities and operational reach are qualitatively and geographically expanding" and the group is capable of much greater frequency of attacks and varied locations of attacks.

US military and political leaders were clearly offering the Taliban, or at least leaders seen as "more moderate," a truce during which talks would be held for their integration in central government.

According to our Taliban experts, this offer too will be spurned - and for a third reason: The Afghan insurgents led by Mullah Omar already enjoy the benefits of a truce with the Pakistani army, helped inadvertently by the Americans themselves.

Last week, when the US defense secretary arrived in Islamabad to demand that the Pakistani military open a new front against Taliban and al Qaeda in North Waziristan, he was publicly snubbed by his hosts.


Unexpected help for Taliban from… Islamabad


Pakistani military spokesmen announced that their armed forces were "overstretched" and would not be ready for any further military action for another six to twelve months.

This amounted to a unilateral Pakistani ceasefire against the Taliban and a painful setback for President Obama's surge policy before even the first extra boots hit the ground.

DEBKA-Net-Weekly military sources note the symmetry between Islamabad's veto and Turkey's refusal to let US forces transit its territory for opening a northern front against Saddam Hussein in 2003

It means that the Taliban of Afghanistan can now rest assured that its rear bases in the lawless tribal lands of the northwestern Pakistan-Afghanistan border, which feed its warfronts with personnel and logistic support, are safe from military attack.

The insurgent leaders will no doubt capitalize on this advantage to intensify their pressure on US-led international forces well before the first US surge troops land in the summer. They will fight to compel the Americans to follow Islamabad in declaring a unilateral truce in hostilities.

The Taliban will then demand to be acknowledged as the winning side in the war and respected as such in future political negotiations. Their leaders will not be satisfied with a few seats in the Karzai government but demand the whole pie. Until then, the war will go on.

[Johann]

cross-posted from the Pashtun civil war thread

Worth reading; http://www.jamestown.org/programs/gta/s ... 0208956bac

In-depth interviews were conducted with 15 students from different colleges and universities all over Pakistan. The duration of each interview was between one and two hours. Each one of the students attends a different college or university. Moreover, each one of them belongs to a different village in Waziristan.

Because of the sensitive nature of the inquiry, the researcher had to meet each student separately. None of the students agreed to a tape-recorded interview, but all allowed the researcher to make written notes during the interview. The students’ freedom of expression is drastically limited by the ongoing targeted killings in FATA, in which hundreds of tribal leaders, teachers, students, doctors and other people who publicly spoke against the Taliban and al-Qaeda have been assassinated, often along with their family members. [1]

All respondents were unanimous on the fact that the Taliban have completely taken over FATA, especially North and South Waziristan, with the help of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), Punjabi militants (Jaish-e-Mohammad, Lashkar-e-Taiba, Hizbul Mujahideen, Sipah-e-Sahaba, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi etc) and foreign fighters, including al-Qaeda Arabs.

They agree that the government of Pakistan has no writ whatsoever over the tribal agencies. They hold the militant occupation responsible for:

• Damaging their culture and traditions.

• Eliminating their entire traditional and indigenous leadership.

• Weakening the tribal society.

• Occupying their houses by force.

• Destroying their traditional and democratic institution of jirga (an assembly of elders that makes decisions based on consensus) and tribal code of Pashtunwali (“The Way of the Pashtuns”), instead replacing it with the militants' own strict brand of Shari’a.

• Bringing destruction to homes and businesses by inciting Pakistani military operations.

The majority of the respondents (13 of 15) did not fully see the drone attacks as a violation of the sovereignty of Pakistan. Their argument is very simple: the state of Pakistan has already surrendered FATA to the militants, therefore, Pakistan has no reason to object to the drone attacks. Pakistan will have this right only if can retake the areas from the militants. Some respondents said that their homeland is used by the militants and the ISI as a launching pad for attacks on ISAF and NATO forces in Afghanistan. Each of the respondents could recall having seen the bodies of those martyred in Afghanistan in their villages. Every respondent was unhappy with what they called the malicious nexus between ISI and the militants. They are sure that the Taliban militants are still strategic assets of Pakistan’s military establishment.

Some suggested that, under the garb of military operations in Waziristan, the ISI had in fact strengthened the militants and double-crossed the United States. It was during these operations that much of the tribal leadership was eliminated by both the militants and military in order to create a power vacuum that was eventually filled by the militants. The same military operations killed hundreds of civilians and destroyed thousands of their houses without killing or injuring any important militant leaders. Wherever military operations in FATA took place, the area was since completely handed over to the militants and the state's writ surrendered through agreements with the militants.

The students, who consider the militants and ISI/military responsible for the insecurity in FATA, increasingly find themselves hostages in the hands of both and as a result, the majority of the respondents welcomed the drone attacks for three reasons:

• The drone attacks are killing the leadership of those al-Qaeda and other militant groups who have made ordinary tribesmen and women hostages. Ordinary people are powerless against the militants and drones are seen as helpful by eliminating the militants and frustrating the designs of ISI.

• The drone attacks have resulted in substantial damage to the militants, especially the elimination of the Arab and Punjabi leadership of al-Qaeda.

• The drone attacks cause a minimum loss of innocent civilians and their property. The respondents appreciated the precision of such attacks.

However, the respondents also pointed out that because of the drone attacks, innocent civilians were being killed by militants on a daily basis on suspicion of spying for the United States. It has become a daily routine that dead and mutilated bodies of civilians are found with a warning note that such treatment would be meted out to any person involved in spying. The resulting fear leaves most tribesmen as tightlipped spectators. For any person to remain free of militants' suspicion, he has to condemn the drone attacks in public. A very interesting remark came from one of the respondents, who was asked why he was reticent in discussing the issue. He remarked, “If you have drones flying above you and Taliban holding a knife beneath [you], how can you speak out the truth?”

The respondents expressed a strong desire for drones as a means to attack the leadership of local Pashtun Taliban. Half of those who supported drone attacks said that people’s daily lives are affected most by the local Taliban and not the Arabs or other al-Qaeda militants who generally mind their own business, or have perhaps assigned the duty of harassment to the local Taliban. One of the respondents suggested that if only ten people amongst the leadership of the local Taliban were killed, the hierarchy of the organization would collapse like a house of cards.

[NRao]

Karzai said his government is pursuing a fundamentally changed policy approach together with Pakistan, working toward stability in both countries. He said his government had contacts within the Taliban leadership "as high as you wish to go" but would not say whether that included Mullah Omar. He reiterated his willingness to talk to Omar "Afghan to Afghan."

Time for ISI to pick up Omar too?

At times I wonder if non-Paki actors are just playing games with (stupid) Pakis.

[Philip]

Silencing the generals,British style.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/commen ... 064623.ece

Excerpt:

Want to understand the war? Ask the generals

It is absurd, even dangerous, that our top soldiers are silenced from giving their opinions
Hew Strachan

Barely a week goes by without a retired general — and sometimes a serving one — hitting the headlines. The trouble is that they do so more often because of who they are, rather than because of what they are saying. In most walks of life professional expertise qualifies its possessor to articulate an opinion, and indeed can create a moral obligation to do so. But in the case of war we deny the serving professionals that right.

Counter-insurgencies are 20 per cent military and 80 per cent political. To succeed in such wars generals need sophisticated political antennae. Both David Petraeus and Stanley McChrystal have them — they liaise with an administration in Washington that is unsure of its direction, co-ordinate the actions of allies with differing objectives, and accommodate the aspirations of the Governments of Iraq and Afghanistan. If either were apolitical in practice, he would do his job less well.

We need British generals like them who are more politically astute, not less so. So far, the Chilcot inquiry has told us what we already knew: in 2002-03 politicians made decisions that did not acknowledge the sort of war they were getting into. The ways and means of waging messy and protracted wars can become more important than the ends for which they were undertaken. Prudence demands that the soldier’s knowledge of those means, and an awareness of how unpredictable and volatile war can be, forms part of the decision to embark on it in the first place.

Even more worrying than the inadequacies in the making of the original strategy was the failure to correct them between 2004 and 2009. By 2006-07 British strategy was moving in three different directions. Whitehall was directing that force levels in Basra be driven down, while British troops in southern Iraq were still pursuing operational success and Britain’s principal ally was beginning a “surge”.

[Philip]

Renowned US AF-PAK General "Big-Mac" McBurger,has decided to rein in this special forces led by Col."Chicken" Kentucky,aka civilian killers.

Poor Gen.Big Mac,he admits that his "Left Hand knows not what his Right Hand is doing".Perhaps he should call in the Labour exchange for an extra hand!

General Stanley McChrystal reins in special forces after raids kill civilians.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/w ... 064612.ece

The commander of US and Nato troops in Afghanistan has issued new rules to rein in special forces after a spate of botched operations left scores of civilians dead.

Days after an investigation by The Times revealed that two pregnant women and a teenage girl were killed in a night raid by American special forces, General Stanley McChrystal admitted that troops under different commands were sometimes working at cross-purposes.

“You got one hand doing one thing and one hand doing the other, both trying to do the right thing but working without a good outcome,” he told The New York Times.

The general has now put the majority of unconventional forces as well as regular troops under unified command. This is intended to give him absolute control over missions that might claim civilian lives.

[ramana]

Ashok Mehta in Pioneer.

SOURCE

India diminished in Afghanistan

Ashok K Mehta

The picture of Afghanistan that has emerged after the London Conference in January is that both reintegration of and reconciliation with the Taliban are key ingredients of the US-led coalition exit strategy. The West has realised that the Taliban cannot be defeated as long as Pakistan continues to provide succour and sanctuary to the Taliban — its strategic asset for its long-term interests.

Despite this, Pakistan has reinforced it position as the frontline state by being accepted as the lead facilitator in reconciliation with the Taliban. Pakistan’s Army Chief Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani and ISI chief Lt Gen Shuja Pasha have scored a major victory in getting the US to recognise Islamabad’s “legitimate strategic quest for strategic depth”. The one-year extension to Lt Gen Pasha who was to retire next month will ensure continuity and facilitate his promotion as the next Army Chief in case Gen Kayani does not get an extension.

While reintegration — buying off the pragmatist lower level Taliban — will be easier than reconciling with their radicalised leaders who have a strong support among Pushtoons on both sides of the Durand Line, Gen Kayani and Gen Pasha have promised to deliver a package deal to be worked out with Afghan President Hamid Karzai.

President Karzai who favours reintegration has been accused of dragging his feet over reconciliation which he believes will undermine his position as elected President. He realises some form of power-sharing is inevitable for an inclusive Government. A loya jirgah planned for April 29 in Kabul will give its blessings for reintegration and reconciliation followed by the Kabul Conference in May to concretise plans for delivering on provisions of the London Conference to cover security, good governance and development. Parliamentary elections due in August, if held, are bound to deflect from Operation Mushtaraq which has made modest gains in the Helmand Province.

The military surge which is the key driver to reintegration and reconciliation could have proved more effective had the Pakistani Army cooperated by sealing exit routes for escaping Taliban. Compensating for this lacuna, the US has employed regular drone attacks against Taliban sanctuaries inside Pakistan. Gen Stanley McChrystal’s plan to negotiate with the Taliban from a position of strength has holes which Pakistan will not plug.

Coalition forces have captured Marjah, the poppy capital of the Taliban which provided them with $ 2 million every month. Logically the next target is Kandahar, the Taliban heartland. If it is taken in the next few months, it would put the Taliban under extreme pressure and facilitate one if not both reintegration and reconciliation. The devastating multiple suicide attacks in Kandahar last week were a warning to coalition forces against stirring the hornet’s nest.

By acknowledging Pakistan’s pivotal role in peace and stability in Afghanistan, and downgrading India’s importance, Mr Karzai has made a dramatic turnaround from the days he refused to shake hands with President Pervez Musharraf. On a visit to Islamabad last week he described India “as a close friend of Afghanistan but Pakistan is a brother of Afghanistan. Pakistan is a twin brother. We are conjoined twins. There is no separation”. He has realised that without the Generals in Pakistan, there can be no reconciliation with the Taliban. Further in Islamabad he emphasised Afghanistan’s neutrality and stressed he did not want proxy wars between India and Pakistan and the US and Iran.

{What else does the writer expect Karzai to say after the US surge has failed/dissipated due to TSp connivance?}

After the London Conference, both the US-led coalition and Afghanistan have put all their eggs in the Pakistani basket. What is not clear is US intention: Cut and run or stay the course beyond 2012. For the present it seems mid-2011 is only the time line for thinning out to commence and not any upstick of forces. A process of handing-taking over will start, based on a flexible transition timetable, commensurate with political and military capacity-building as well as development. In other words, a sequential transfer of authority to the Afghan Government, including ownership of the peace process.

Shaping up are two scenarios: A Karzai-led inclusive Government; a Taliban-led or dominated regime. Pakistan’s flag flies higher than India’s in Afghanistan. India’s stature has diminished due to a number of reasons: Rejection of its passionate advocacy that talking to Taliban is like frying snowflakes; not being consulted on AfPak; not invited to the Istanbul Conference and being sidelined at the London Conference. The final blow was the deadly third targeted attack last month against Indian interests in Kabul in which, among others, three Army Majors teaching English to the Afghan Army were killed.

The ISI-sponsored strike revealed the growing vulnerability of Indian assets and New Delhi’s failure to protect them. Though initially mixed messages emanated from North and South Blocks about our resolve and staying power, in the end several hundred additional commandoes have been despatched to bolster our defences. Periodic polls conducted among Afghans by ABC, BBC and ARD have given India and Indian workers the highest popularity rating for their contribution to development and reconstruction.

{So how is India diminished by TSP (under US protection) terrorist attacks in Afghanistan?}

The skilful use of just soft power without pitching for any military role especially in training of Afghanistan’s security forces ignored ground reality and reduced India’s relevance. New Delhi failed to work through Washington, Kabul and London to raise its work profile in Afghanistan.{However this ignores the issue of those three did not want any Indian role to appease TSP!} Worse, without India indulging in dirty tricks, Pakistan has succeeded in accusing it of meddling in Balochistan from Afghanistan. New Delhi should have initiated dialogue with Pakistan over Afghanistan in the Musharraf era. Now it will refuse to do so. {Not so fast. For talking to TSO about its role there ackowldeges TSP has ar ole in Afghanistan the very strategic depth that India denies TSP has!}

India's big handicap (and also saving grace) is not having contiguous borders with Afghanistan. Despite the apparent setback, India must dig in. It should continue with its development work which is bound to cost more and be more proactive in military training. Mr Karzai has not yet accepted Gen Kayani’s offer of training the Afghan Army, whose Chief, Gen Bismillah Khan, is keen to send platoon to battalion size units for training in India. But India has preferred to maintain a low profile. {Currently its the US, that has made sure India has no military role in Afghanistan to appease the TSP since 9/11. Has the general forgotten this? So until there is more clarity of the US intents blaming India is a non-starter.}

There is no deadline for the vacation of foreign troops. This is US-led Nato’s first out-of-area expeditionary operation with an eye on China and Central Asian resources. India needs to reestablish contact with Pushtoons as New Delhi is seen through the prism of the erstwhile Northern Alliance. Although a regional compact was not discussed in London, India should intensify coordination with regional players and explore backchannel conversations with the Taliban.

[NRao]

X-Posting:

Do not know how this might impact Af-Pak ...........................

Outlook :: US is Preparing to Strike Iran's Nuke Facilities: Report

Stepping up its preparations for a possible strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, the United States is transporting hundreds of 387 'bunker-buster' bombs to its air base on the British island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, a media report has claimed.

The US government signed a contract in January with Superior Maritime Services to transport 10 ammunition containers to Diego Garcia from Concord, California, Sunday Herald has reported.

The shipment includes 195 smart, guided Blu-110 bombs and 192 Blu-117 2,000 lb bombs.

The key Iranian nuclear facilities are said to be underground and both these type of bombs are effective against reinforced or underground facilities.

The United States and Israel have repeatedly asserted that they do not rule out a military action to stop Iran's nuclear ambitions and that they are keeping all the options on the table.

Contract details for the shipment were posted on an international tenders' website by the US Navy.

"They are gearing up totally for the destruction of Iran," Dan Plesch, director of the Centre for International Studies and Diplomacy at the University of London, said.

"US bombers are ready today to destroy 10,000 targets in Iran in a few hours," Plesch, who is the co-author of a recent study on the US preparations for an attack on Iran, stressed.

The final decision on whether to launch an attack would be in the hands of US President Barack Obama. He may decide that it would be better for the US to act instead of Israel, Plesch argued.

"The US is not publicising the scale of these preparations to deter Iran, tending to make confrontation more likely,"Plesch said adding, "The US is using its forces as part of an overall strategy of shaping Iran's actions."

Diego Garcia is a British territory about 1,000 miles south of India and Sri Lanka but is used as a US military base as part of an agreement reached in 1971.

It has already been used in operations against Iraq during the 1991 and 2003 Gulf wars.

[shyamd]

Read it all!
Pakistan and the Afghanistan Endgame

Written by Ahmed Rashid
Wednesday, 17 March 2010

Wary neighbors: Afghan President Hamid Karzai (left) with Pakistan's Premier Yousuf Raza Gilani, seeking accommodation. Photo credit: European Press Photo Agency.
India and Pakistan vie for influence in Kabul

After the failure of high level talks between India and Pakistan over their long running disputes, both countries are now locked in an escalating proxy war in Afghanistan.

If no solution is found to reconcile Pakistani and Indian interests in Afghanistan, the coming months might see stepped up terrorist attacks against Indians in Kabul and the return of militants infiltrating Indian Kashmir from Pakistan.

The fact that in recent weeks a large number of Taliban operatives have been captured in Pakistan signals an intensified struggle over the fate of Afghanistan rather than a winding down of the conflict.

With Afghan President Hamid Karzai seeking negotiations with the Taliban, some of whom Pakistan distrusts, along with India increasingly concerned about the Pakistan-backed Taliban coming to power in Kabul, the conflict is reaching a new stage of intensity. Even as an intensive US and NATO military offensive against the Taliban is underway in southern Afghanistan, neighboring states are already considering the Americans as good as gone and preparing for an end game scenario with old rivalries renewed.

While Pakistan charges India with undermining Pakistani influence in Afghanistan, India fears that Pakistan is preparing the ground for pro-Pakistan elements from the Taliban to negotiate with Kabul, in an attempt to force India out of Afghanistan after US forces start a slow withdrawal in July 2011. Meanwhile, a year after Pakistani militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba carried out Mumbai attack they are yet to be brought to justice.

Against this backdrop, Indian and Pakistani Foreign Secretaries met in New Delhi at the end of February but failed to make any progress. Just a day later a suicide squad in Kabul hit two hotels, killing 16 people including 7 Indian civilians and two Indian army majors. Three days later the Afghan government accused Lashkar-e-Taiba of being responsible for the Kabul attack.

In a series of briefings to the Pakistani and foreign media, Pakistani generals have portrayed India as seriously threatening Pakistan, using its embassy and consulates in Afghanistan to harbor, train and fund Baloch separatists who are waging an insurgency in Balochistan province, trying to undermine Pakistan's influence in Afghanistan and even for backing elements of the Pakistani Taliban. Tensions heightened after four Pakistani workers were gunned down in Kandahar in early March by unknown assailants. The Pakistani media has accused the Indian consulate in Kandahar of organizing the attack.

Pro-military commentators have risen to the occasion demanding that as Pakistan now faces a two-front situation, India should be pushed out of Afghanistan by the Taliban or as a pre-condition which the US must accept, if and when peace talks between the Taliban and the Kabul government are held.

India was seriously rattled when the US and NATO agreed at the January 28 London conference on Afghanistan to begin "re-integrating" Taliban fighters and field commanders and lavishly funding a peace package for them. President Karzai went much further by demanding ‘reconciliation' with the mainstream Taliban led by Mullah Mohammed Omar. India was aghast at the unanimity of the international community which is tiring of the war in Afghanistan, as India has vociferously opposed any dialogue with the Taliban.

India sees the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban and Al Qaeda working closely with anti-Indian groups based in Pakistani Punjab, such as Lashkar, who have begun to re-infiltrate into Indian Kashmir to restart the guerrilla war which has been dormant since 2004. Even US officials say that Punjabi militants are increasingly fighting with the Taliban in Afghanistan.

Although Karzai has declared that "Afghanistan does not want proxy war between India and Pakistan," India's real concern is that Pakistan appears determined to position itself center stage of any dialogue between the Taliban and Kabul. Pakistan's Interservice Intelligence Bureau recently arrested key Afghan Taliban leaders who have been engaged in talks with representatives of the Karzai administration without Pakistan's ISI being involved.

Senior US officials in Washington say the initial arrest of the powerful second in command Taliban leader, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar in Karachi in early February was accidental – after the CIA discovered the location of a meeting of Taliban commanders where Barader was found. The ISI arrested him and then decided to bring in all his supporters, resulting in more arrests. Kabul's request that Barader be extradited was refused. Despite repeated requests, US officials have been given only limited access to question Barader and even less access to question other arrested Taliban.

However, despite his significant sanctuary in Pakistan, Barader was at odds with the ISI talking independently to Karzai's representatives without taking the ISI into confidence and instead enlisting the help of Saudi Arabia. Over the past 12 months Saudi Arabia has been intermittently involved in helping the two sides hold informal talks that so far have not led to real negotiations, although they have the potential to do so. The Saudis, although close allies of Pakistan, had also appeared willing to keep the ISI out of the dialogue.

The Obama administration is still far from accepting the idea of negotiating with the Taliban leadership and US officials were annoyed with Karzai after the London conference for raising the issue, but the ISI and the military are now forcing the pace to have a three way dialogue between Kabul, Islamabad and the Taliban, while also pushing the US administration to accept such a dialogue and agree to a major role for the ISI.

India has now embarked on a diplomatic offensive to counter Pakistan's growing role, sending National Security Adviser Shivsankar Menon to Kabul in early March and the Foreign Minister S M Krishna to Iran in coming weeks. Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmedinejad's hastily arranged trip to Afghanistan this week underlined Tehran's keen interest in the Afghanistan endgame. India has asked Karzai about his secret negotiations with the Taliban and how India can play a role. At the same time India appears to be wanting to rebuild the alliance with Iran, Russia and the Central Asian Republics that opposed the Taliban in the 1990s and supported the non-Pashtun Northern Alliance.

Missing as yet from this complicated maneuvering is the US administration, which will have to decide soon on supporting Kabul-Taliban talks if it is not to see its military and economic development offensives in Afghanistan undermined by growing regional rivalries. Also missing from the equation is Pakistan's civilian government, which has been bypassed in the foreign policy decision making by the military and the ISI. It is well known that the much weakened President Asif Zardari would like to improve relations with India and Afghanistan and encourage trade and investment, rather than foment a new set of regional tensions.

However a too overt Pakistani role is likely to be rejected by Karzai, by Afghanistan's non-Pashtuns and civil society and even by many Taliban who are tired of fighting and would like to end their dependence on Pakistan.

Any sign of excessive Pakistani influence in Afghanistan would immediately prompt a reaction from India, Iran, China and the Arab Gulf states, which could include backing anti-Pakistan proxies in Afghanistan and making it even more difficult for Afghanistan to achieve peace and stability.

Ahmed Rashid is a Pakistani journalist and author, most recently of "Descent into Chaos: The US and the Disaster in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Central Asia." Reprinted with permission from YaleGlobal Online, the flagship publication of the Yale Center for the Study of Globalization

[NRao]

I seem to be missing a lot of fun, but .................

prompt a reaction from India, Iran, China and the Arab Gulf states

How and when did China get into this group? And, that too in a group "against" TSP?

What a mess the Obama US has made.

[ramana]

Nightwatch, 3/16/10 says about the Putin visit

India-Afghanistan: Despite terrorist attacks targeting Indians in Afghanistan, Foreign Secretary Rao said India will not cut back its activities in Afghanistan, the Press Trust of India reported on 16 March.

Ms. Rao said New Delhi is taking all necessary security measures to safeguard Indian lives in Afghanistan. She charged that the 26 February attack was by "those who do not wish any other future for Afghanistan except one that suits their sinister ambitions."

Note: Last Friday, Prime Ministers Putin and Singh echoed each other in restating their countries’ commitment to Afghanistan, just like the old days. Today’s statement ends rumors that India was reconsidering its involvement because of security considerations. The strong message – precisely because of security considerations – is that Pakistan cannot dominate the deliberations about a future power-sharing arrangement in Kabul.

So why do Ashok Mehta and G. Parthasarathy think India is giving up in Afghanistan?

Afghanistan: A district chief told the Afghan Islamic Press on 16 March that the situation in Musa Qala District, Helmand Province, has been made worse by British forces. He said the British are not fighting the Taliban in the region, or helping the police fight the Taliban in any way. The British have not built mosques or schools or provided any other services to the people, he added.

Note: A Norwegian study group encountered a similar attitude in Badghis Province in northern Afghanistan in 2006. One local Afghan elder told the Norwegian NGO researchers, “If necessary, we are ready to have our own local Taliban to get support.” Griping springs up as a cottage industry as soon as an adjacent district or valley appears to be prospering.

Security. Security officials predict the number of assaults in Afghanistan is likely to escalate with the coming of spring, Pajhwok news agency reported today. Mohammad Naim Baloch, deputy chief of the National Directorate of Security (NDS), said in the last nine months 7,000 assaults occurred across the country, the most since 2001.

Baloch also said 15 provinces in the north, east and west were under a serious security threat from insurgents and 10 districts have fallen into Taliban hands. Deputy Interior Minister Mohammad Munir Mangal said the NDS is facing a shortage of intelligence operatives, and the situation is deteriorating in provinces bordering Iran and Pakistan.

Comment: To put the comments in perspective, spring is always the time when the Taliban increase their attacks. There are at least four separate methods for counting “assaults” among US and allied military contingents and contractors and the UN. Baloch did not clarify which one he was using,

In some methods, bombings of all kinds are counted separately from Taliban initiated direct or indirect fire attacks, drive by shootings, assassinations and “complex” attacks, just to mention a few of the many categories of violence. The number breaks out to about 26 “assaults” per day in 400 districts. It is a lot of violence and it has been increasing faster year on year since 2006.

The number of provinces in the north, west and east under stress is about correct. Adding in the 12 or 13 core provinces of the Pashtun heartland, 28 or so of the 34 provinces are under stress and have been these past two years. Still on close examination the districts under Taliban control invariably are Pashtun populated districts outside the Pashtun heartland.

The 15 provinces, depending on which Baloch includes, contain at least 200 districts. That only ten districts are in Taliban hands is nearly miraculous considering the Pashtun dispersion in the west, east and north and the extent of effort the Taliban have put on expansion beginning in 2007 – that’s not even one district per province.

Baloch’s message evidently is intended to remind the US that the trouble is not confined to the south and that no one should expect quick fixes. Most observers know both of those points.

Open source fighting data for January show the Taliban wintered. Partial fighting data for February is dominated by the US push. Good months for a push into Taliban country and good months for Pakistan to round up Afghan Taliban leaders with minimal impact on Taliban operations in Afghanistan.

[Prem]

Taliban, Hizb-e-Islami present ten-point peace formula
KABUL : Afghan Taliban and Hizb-e-Islami have given a consensus formula for peace in Afghanistan, dialogue and return of NATO forces, Aaj News reported on Wednesday.
Talking in a programme of Aaj News 'Live with Talat', Afghan scholar Professor Haleem Haleem presented ten points of the formula. He categorically clarified that the formula is being presented with the support of Taliban and Hizb-e-Islami, adding that all the stakeholders including the United Nations is being informed in this regard.
He was of view that there are only two stakeholders in Afghanistan that are US and its allies and the second is jihadi forces. Dialogues are possible between these two, he added.
Professor said that there is no role of puppet government of Karzai, adding that Taliban are united and organized in Afghanistan.

http://www.thepakistaninewspaper.com/ne ... p?id=16308

[Prem]

Karzai held secret talks with Mullah Baradar in Afghanistan: report
Submitted 17 hrs 38 mins ago
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The Taliban's chief military commander was in secret talks with Hamid Karzai's family just weeks before his arrest by Pakistan intelligence officers, it has been claimed.
The Afghan president was furious about the seizure of Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar in Karachi last month as the men had been negotiating, according to his aides.
Diplomats have claimed at least one of Mr Karzai's brothers held talks with the Taliban's number two at a private house near Kandahar two months ago.
The meeting at a residence in Spin Boldak is believed to have included discussion on the lucrative opium and heroin trade in southern Afghanistan. Sources told media that the discussions also covered the positions of Mullah Baradar and Mr Karzai in the Taliban and government.
A spokesman for the Afghan president denied there had been direct talks between the government and Mullah Baradar, but would not comment on indirect talks. The Karzai brothers were unavailable for comment.
The claim came as Mr Karzai prepared to announce a grand tribal peace council, or jirga in the first week of May which he claims will kick start a reconciliation drive with Afghanistan's insurgents.
Abdul Ali Shamsi, security adviser to the governor of Helmand province, said: "The government has been negotiating with Mullah Baradar, who took an offer to the Taliban [ruling council]."
Another aide said the arrest, made with help from US intelligence officers, had made Mr Karzai "very angry".
The discussions between the two parties, who are members the Popalzai tribe, hinged on business interests rather than a political peace deal, one analyst in Kabul said.

http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news- ... tan-report

[Philip]

India should've used the Putin visit to get Russian assistance in creating a conference of northern states,etc. separate from the western alliance that dumped India into the garbage bin.However,MMS is so servile and lickspitle in behaviour,that no matter what Ms.Rao says,we are going to see a tactical (one hopes not strategic) retreat fom Afghanistan as the MMS regime lacks the essentials to face upto the Paki-Talib military threat.

Two good pieces from the Indian EXpess.

India needs a new strategy
SOURCE
(posted in the Indo-US hread)

SOURCE

==

India’s dilemma in Afghanistan
The New Indian Express 12 Mar 2010

For a couple of hours on Wednesday, there was confusion in newsrooms with the home and the external affairs ministries speaking in different voices. Candid home ministry sources talked about a cautious approach on future Indian investment in Afghanistan’s development. India would not take up new projects in far-flung Afghan badlands and would club already-begun activities for security reasons. And there could be an advisory discouraging Indians from working in private firms in Afghanistan.

Coming from the ministry responsible for security of Indians in Afghanistan, it seemed like a sensible, commonsense approach. Seven Indians were killed in a gory attack in Kabul. This airing of concern by one ministry drew a sharp response from another. The MEA stated there were no plans to scale down Indian activity.

The foreign office response did prevent Delhi from sending out a signal it doesn’t really want to send out. Even if India has decided to scale down, it wouldn’t like to tell the world that a regional power is so rattled by Pakistan-abetted attacks. Remember, only the other day Manmohan Singh was telling Parliament that Kabul-type attacks will not bend India’s will.

Delhi must prepare to take tough decisions if the situation in Afghanistan deteriorates further. With a longer rope allowed by the exiting Americans and the Taliban now even more under Islamabad’s influence, terror groups could make things more difficult for India in coming months. Scaling down — even pulling out and cutting Delhi’s losses — would remain an option.

But a wiser course would be to prepare now to dig in. The American intervention in Afghanistan after 9/11 gave India a chance to get back into Afghanistan. India has invested over $1.2 billion in projects ranging from the Afghan Parliament building and the 220-kilometre Zaranj-Delaram road — which provides Afghans access to an Iranian port, an alternative to Pakistan’s Karachi — to schools and clinics set up with the involvement of local communities.

India needs to build on the goodwill generated by these activities to counter waiting-to-step-in Pakistan. Afghanistan, which shares a border with that part of Kashmir which is technically India’s, is strategically too important to be abandoned. India needs to stay engaged. So do the external affairs and home ministries, with each other.

[sum]

India to engage with Iran on Afghanistan

New Delhi is currently holding consultations with Uzbekistan, which shares ethnic ties with a section of the Afghan people. And before that, Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao visited Kyrgyzstan to discuss, among other things, how the country's leadership is looking at the evolving situation in Afghanistan. Minister of State for External Affairs Preneet Kaur visited another Central Asian country Turkmenistan, again to discuss Afghanistan and energy issues, diplomatic sources say.

These consultations on Afghanistan and energy were topped by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's meeting with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin during the latter's one-day visit here last week, and with the top Saudi Arabian leadership during Dr. Singh's first visit to a Gulf country earlier this month.

Indian diplomatic moves acquired momentum after it was excluded from a preparatory meeting for the London conference on Afghanistan and felt Pakistan could acquire a prominent role following its success in nabbing several top Afghan Taliban leaders of ‘Quetta Shura' and its perceived hold over some of the organisations engaged against NATO troops.

The U.S. move to funnel supplies for soldiers in Afghanistan through the Northern Distribution Network, a commercially-based logistical corridor connecting the Baltic and Black Sea ports with Afghanistan through Russia, the Caucasus, and Central Asia, has also increased the significance of these countries in settling the Afghan question. In line with the increasing reliance on these countries for sending supplies, U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan Richard Holbrooke visited four Central Asian countries for bilateral talks on Afghanistan.

Of these countries, India is especially keen on closer engagement with Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Iran in view of the close linkages with western and northern Afghanistan.

All U.S. supplies into Afghanistan come from several routes, but converge in Uzbekistan, and India is currently assessing its leadership's views based on its close ties with Afghan Uzbeks, some of whom have fallen out of favour with the current U.S. administration.

In the area of energy, India has broached with Turkmenistan the possibility of sending its gas to northern Iran.

Massive course correction happening?

[NRao]

MMS lacks this and that. Sure.

But, the current question is has the Obama led US lost its backbone to the Taliban and Paki quest for strategic depth. It seems that today the Taliban have qualitative control of the better part of Afghanistan. IF that is true then it is the failure on part of the NATO forces, including the US.

Indian behavior is nothing new, India seems to be reverting to the days when the Taliban ruled Afghanistan.

What is new, and very surprising, is that India did not see the Western support (supposedly) of the integration of the Taliban. IF Karzai had been harping on this one, single fact, what made India phoo-phoo it I am not too sure. It looks like a major misstep on India's part. Which she is trying to correct with all these reactive consultations.

OR India has her own Afghan "leaders" that are in the wings?

[CRamS]

NRao:

Leave it to me for the final word. And I say this based on tit bits from what US big wigs like Tom Friedman, Zbignief Brizinsky etc have said. Just put yourself in the shoes of an Anglo white man who views the entire world as his playground. After the horror of 9/11, these guys were furious, and with good reason, we SDREs should empathize for obvious reasons, and decided to hit back with ferrocity (quintessential example of this is Pat Tilman, maacho football player escewing lucrative football deals and instead turned jingoist to give his life in Afganisthan). And off they went to Afganisthan with a misssion to just hit. As things progressed, the white man as pragmatic as he is and as enough B-52 bombs were dropped on Afghans and post 9/11 anger began to subside, began to to introspect as to what this is all about and what his interests really are. It was at this point, neo-con and pro-Isreal slime balls channeled 9/11 anger, concocted the WMD fraud and decided to get loot Iraq's oil and decimate an semblence of threat to Israel that Saddam might pose.

So bottom line is this. US has now realized that its main interests are access to central asian oil, no more launching of terror attacks against whites using Afganisthan as a launching pad. That part of the world is inhabited by TSPians, Afghans, and SDREs; not much to choose between any of them; just play each against the other by throwing a few dogs bones to placate each party. Now if you think of it, its not easy to pull off massive terror attacks against far away whites by rope-trick wielding Talibunnies and their Arab allies which US calls "Al Queda", 9/11 nothwithstanding. All it requires to prevent attacks on whites is some form of govt in Afganisthan; and to keep Taliban on a tight leash, you guessed it, TSPA is useful. And of course give some weapons to TSPA, and they keep SDREs also on a tight teash. And of course, declare SDREs as global superpower of the 21st century, and they fall in palce. Thats all there is to it. US is securing its interests, Only issue that needs to be settled is mighty US's H&D after all the furiousness post 9/11, and the perception that Talubunnies defeated them as they did the Russians. And maacho boy Stanley's mission is just that: pummel a few Talibunnies so US can withdraw with its H&D intact and a tad higher than that of the Russian when they left.

[svenkat]

Leave it to me for the final word. And I say this based on tit bits from what US big wigs like Zbignief Brizinsky etc have said. Just put yourself in the shoes of an Anglo white man who views the entire world as his playground.

As things progressed, the white man as pragmatic as he is and as enough B-52 bombs were dropped on Afghans and post 9/11 anger began to subside, began to to introspect as to what this is all about and what his interests really are.

So bottom line is this. US has now realized that its main interests are access to central asian oil, no more launching of terror attacks against whites using Afganisthan as a launching pad. That part of the world is inhabited by TSPians, Afghans, and SDREs; not much to choose between any of them; just play each against the other by throwing a few dogs bones to placate each party. Now if you think of it, its not easy to pull off massive terror attacks against far away whites by rope-trick wielding Talibunnies and their Arab allies which US calls "Al Queda", 9/11 nothwithstanding. All it requires to prevent attacks on whites is some form of govt in Afganisthan; and to keep Taliban on a tight leash, you guessed it, TSPA is useful. And of course give some weapons to TSPA, and they keep SDREs also on a tight teash.

http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 36#p840636

http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 67#p840667

[RamaY]

My "current" competitors losing their spine (will to fight) will not make me any brave or strong. Such a strategic scenario will not protect me from future aggressors! I have to acquire these qualities on my own.

Our leadership lacks (intentionally and ideologically) this basic wisdom!

[svinayak]

Just put yourself in the shoes of an Anglo white man who views the entire world as his playground.

That part of the world is inhabited by TSPians, Afghans, and SDREs; not much to choose between any of them; just play each against the other by throwing a few dogs bones to placate each party.

The white man says - If I cannot control the area then I will make sure that nobody else can control that area.
This may have been the outcome looking at the events from 1980s, 1990s and 2000s.

Make sure that there is enough mess and the spoiler(TSP) is propped up so that it keeps fighting with everybody.

CRamS - I have a question for you.

Has India become a target now

[muraliravi]

I have a gut feeling on the things happening.

1. Ms. Rao upping her PR into CAR and pushing for better ties with Iran.

2. GOI silently pushing things fwd in Afghanistan

3. SMK (even though not enuf) openly stating Indian doubts on the trial of headley and that he maybe a double agent (indirectly saying unkil is a ...)

4. Sudden resurfacing of talks on IPI again

5. GOI holding consultations with uzbeks and other northerners

6. Yes the putin visit too

Overall these seem to indicate that some course re-correction is on. But overall it is hard to believe that a 78 -year old guy who all along believes in anything unkil says would be the cause for this re-correction.

The overall media tit bits and insider news (sources and twitter) seem to indicate a lot of dissatisfaction in MMS foreign policy handle. These all lead to only one conclusion.

Someone else in the party is saying enuf is enuf, Ms Rao take our orders and put things back on track and hear MMS in one ear and let it out of the other, after all he could not even win his own seat

[ramana]

A prof from Naval Post Graduate Inst, Monterrey was saying that seige of Marjah was an inconsequential event and trumped up for political reasons. He says its a glorified village of 2K and not a town of 80K as is being made up. Could there be two Marjahs?

If he is right then the surge has failed.

An early example of his analysis in FP:

Obama's Indecent Interval

[brihaspati]

The surge was never really about "winning" - it was to create an image of "winning" with a side objective of providing hopefully enough pressure on the Talebs to appear pliant. They needed a PR situation to retreat with good face.

[NRao]

CRS ....... to .................. brihaspati:

What is new in all this? Everything there is a "Check" ................ we know all that.

THAT is what is puzzling to me. Even when Karzai said "Talk to Taliban", "Integrate Taliban", etc, why is it that India did nto take any of that seriously.

I can understand (not agree with) India towing the US line - back anyone other than Karzai. But, why did they not take an integration and Pakistani demand to play a sole-role in this integration seriously and game for it?

And, now when the US card does not work, the visits to various regional capitals and the very ancient Iran-Russia stuff is most predictable. What else is there to be done anyways? India can ONLY use either the West to hem in Pakistan or use the Iran-Russia trick to do the same.

Flip that coin. The US/Iran-Russia could either go to Pakistan or India for support!!!!!

Not being invited to Turkey and sidelined in London is a very bad indicator.

I seem to be missing something, but the question is what am I missing. Why is India playing catch-up?

[putnanja]

Terror clouding region, spy chiefs flock to India

Spy chiefs of three countries have dropped in within a month of each other in New Delhi, amid concerns among the international community of the impact a major terror strike in India could have on regional stability. On Thursday, US Director for National Intelligence Dennis C Blair met Home Minister P Chidambaram, with the two discussing the security scenario in the region, particularly Afghanistan.
...
...
The visits come at a time where there are growing concerns in the international community about the situation in Afghanistan and about a terror attack in India worsening it. India has been receiving intelligence inputs about possible terror strikes.
...
...
Britain, which wants to cut down its presence in Afghanistan, has been pushing for dialogue between India and Pakistan, which it believes will help resolve the situation in the war-torn country.
...

[NRao]

Terror clouding region, spy chiefs flock to India

Britain, which wants to cut down its presence in Afghanistan, has been pushing for dialogue between India and Pakistan, which it believes will help resolve the situation in the war-torn country.
...

Capitulation to the ISI/PA chief.

For sure, and to be very sure, the Pakistani civilian government is less than a worthless puppet.

So, the Brits want to save their lads by India agreeing to give up Kashmir. Ha ha ha.

I think if the FATA, etc - areas within "Pakistan" that cannot be ruled cannot be controlled, then the option is to take over in some manner those areas that are ruled by Pakistan!!! A non UN force, without the need for a UN mandate .................

[brihaspati]

NRao ji,
indeed, nothing new. I have maintained for more than a year now that the priority of the Obama admin will be to "stabilize" (or make it appear so) and then withdraw leaving the Talebs in share of power. Eventually the Talebs will displace the others and revert back to their Caliphate agenda. The portion of Talebs allied with the Jihadist core of ISI-PA will then launch their longer term Caliphate agenda expanding both north-west [coming into conflict with Iran and the Tajiks] and South east into the rest of POWI and India.

Now where is India in all this, you ask? India at the moment is not anywhere in the picture - at least not in a strategic sense. Primary reason is that GOI has no clear cut target about what it wants eventually to happen to POWI, what its policy w.r.t Islamism and Jihadism is going to be. GOI policy typically has been reactive for most part and not pro-active. So this lack of inner long term strategic vision and a forward "agenda", makes the whole thinking defensive and conservative.

Many sections of GOI are perhaps quite worried and concerned about possible major and sustained terror moves against India. There could be real intelligence behind this or careful manipulation by external agencies and double agents. The main concern is not terror attacks per se, but what it could mean for internal electoral politics - minority vote vs wind in so-called "h**** nationalist" sails - etc. There could also be manipulated images of coordinated PRC+Taleb+ISI-PA moves combined with internal enemies like the Maoists/escaped LTTE/D-gang/internal Jihadis and separatists.

It is a paralysis of decision-making, since any initiative from GOI side now means taking up military and geo-strategic steps which will accelerate the conflict situation between POGWI and GOI over AFG and which can therefater only lead to increasing GOI commitments against Jihad and inevitable ultimate moves to eliminate POGWI. That can be potentially suicidal for the current political regime in India becuase it may face a coordinated electoral opposition from various fronts and sympathisers of Islamism as well as Maoism etc. That can be significant because of current low levels of electoral vote proportions which make up governments. On the other hand, any military initiative that has a roll-back retreat - is likely to decimate the chances of ever the current regime returning to power.

Sanku ji will object, but I would still not be much worried about this apparent indecision. History has a way of overtaking those who cannot decide out of fear of losing it all and who hedge too much.

[Karna_A]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/8575623.stm

The UN's former envoy to Afghanistan, Kai Eide, has strongly criticised Pakistan's recent arrest of high-ranking Taliban leaders.

Mr Eide told the BBC the arrests had completely stopped a channel of secret communications with the UN.

[NRao]

indeed, nothing new. I have maintained for more than a year now that the priority of the Obama admin will be to "stabilize" (or make it appear so) and then withdraw leaving the Talebs in share of power. Eventually the Talebs will displace the others and revert back to their Caliphate agenda.

............................

1) On Caliphate, Obama seems to have let things roll in Turkey!!!!!! (I am not sure if you heard, the officers who were arrested, they claim, had a 5000 page report on how to conduct the coup. . Yeah, right. Write a thesis before conducting a proper, secular coup!!!!! Anyways, the Islamists seem to have occupied prominent position in that country. We can expect wonders from them, here on out, in the name of non-Islamic leanings (not secular leaning)). IIRC Obama has downgraded Taliban from terrorists to something more palatable. Expect him to export or the proper word now is out-source them to Kashmir as freedom fighters
2) India reactive. Very, very true. Right now I am more interested in the next gen leaders (IF any) to see what is their thinking (IF they have one or allowed to have one). MMS and his LSE leaning ......................... not sure which direction he will head. For all I know he will huddle in ND and keep absolutely quite

[brihaspati]

NRao wrote
IIRC Obama has downgraded Taliban from terrorists to something more palatable. Expect him to export or the proper word now is out-source them to Kashmir as freedom fighters
2) India reactive. Very, very true. Right now I am more interested in the next gen leaders (IF any) to see what is their thinking (IF they have one or allowed to have one). MMS and his LSE leaning ......................... not sure which direction he will head. For all I know he will huddle in ND and keep absolutely quite

He won't have to export them. Once they finish getting back a share of the power their senior Mujahids will put them away from home, making trouble in their own backyard, and send them out to greener pastures. Nothing like a good expedition into Qufr land - win-win onlee. If they drink the sherbet of shahidi - one less horny hothead to accommodate and feed. If they succeed - new lands, fields, goats and skirts.

GOI may already be getting involved into a position from which it cannot extricate itself without getting more and more involved. The babus will have the luxury of realizing how quickly they are being sucked into the quagmire and what it means when you have no comprehensive plans of military and geo-strategic expansion and power projection. It will be difficult for Indian to back out of this now, but also disastrous if it cannot come to a military understanding with the Tajiks and begin to lay "bases" in the north. Supply will be a nightmare and will need greater cooperation with Iran and Russia. On the other hand valuable experience and training [as well as recce] can take place for small, special forces groups from IA working with the northerners.

Next gen leaders are chosen and filtered by preious gen leaders - why should the oldies allow "blacksheep" who may show mor etalent than themselves. So it means gradual erosion of quality over time. Have to wait until the tree comes down with the rot.

[Muppalla]

I have a gut feeling on the things happening.

1. Ms. Rao upping her PR into CAR and pushing for better ties with Iran.

2. GOI silently pushing things fwd in Afghanistan

3. SMK (even though not enuf) openly stating Indian doubts on the trial of headley and that he maybe a double agent (indirectly saying unkil is a ...)

4. Sudden resurfacing of talks on IPI again

5. GOI holding consultations with uzbeks and other northerners

6. Yes the putin visit too

Overall these seem to indicate that some course re-correction is on. But overall it is hard to believe that a 78 -year old guy who all along believes in anything unkil says would be the cause for this re-correction.

The overall media tit bits and insider news (sources and twitter) seem to indicate a lot of dissatisfaction in MMS foreign policy handle. These all lead to only one conclusion.

Someone else in the party is saying enuf is enuf, Ms Rao take our orders and put things back on track and hear MMS in one ear and let it out of the other, after all he could not even win his own seat

You may be right. Latest Foreign policy articles also are pointing a deep rooted divisions against MMS line of tooooooo much US-ism.

[sum]

You may be right. Latest Foreign policy articles also are pointing a deep rooted divisions against MMS line of tooooooo much US-ism.

Dont care about US-ism or Russi-ism but blatant spineless-ism of MMS has to change!!!!

[Malayappan]

Cross Post -
Filling the post-US vacuum Jyoti Malhotra providing some tidbits in Business Standard. She puts out that Holebrooke and Hilary may have different views. Could be a good cop bad cop game or alternatively Hilary's LT plans...? Also an assessment that Holebrooke bats right through for pakistan. Worth a read. This site normally restricts access to articles after some time.

[shiv]

So bottom line is this. US has now realized that its main interests are access to central asian oil, no more launching of terror attacks against whites using Afganisthan as a launching pad. That part of the world is inhabited by TSPians, Afghans, and SDREs; not much to choose between any of them; just play each against the other by throwing a few dogs bones to placate each party. Now if you think of it, its not easy to pull off massive terror attacks against far away whites by rope-trick wielding Talibunnies and their Arab allies which US calls "Al Queda", 9/11 nothwithstanding. All it requires to prevent attacks on whites is some form of govt in Afganisthan; and to keep Taliban on a tight leash, you guessed it, TSPA is useful. And of course give some weapons to TSPA, and they keep SDREs also on a tight teash. And of course, declare SDREs as global superpower of the 21st century, and they fall in palce. Thats all there is to it. US is securing its interests, Only issue that needs to be settled is mighty US's H&D after all the furiousness post 9/11, and the perception that Talubunnies defeated them as they did the Russians. And maacho boy Stanley's mission is just that: pummel a few Talibunnies so US can withdraw with its H&D intact and a tad higher than that of the Russian when they left.

I would agree with this assessment. The only thing that puzzles me is what the US is going to do about Iran. One possibility is that the US is more hot air than I am wiling to admit. I just wonder whether the Paki ability to talk tough (Claim they have a crore in the bank when they actually have only 5 paise) is a trait picked up from the US. The US responds to most people who talk tough by giving bribes and throwing money. Only when the entity is extraordinarily weak and/or the US also has bakra allies will it actually attack.

[RayC]

A TV report stated the bunker busting bombs have been moved to Deigo Garcia with the intention being Iran's nuclear facilities.

On the one hand, Obama and Clinton has gone ballistics on Israel for building a new settlement on Occupied land for 1600 dwelling and so they have to placate Israel by removing the threat, perceived by Israel to be most dangerous to their existence.

[shiv]

A TV report stated the bunker busting bombs have been moved to Deigo Garcia with the intention being Iran's nuclear facilities.

But the most allied of allies is just next door. Why fly in from Deego Garshia?

[CRamS]

I would agree with this assessment. The only thing that puzzles me is what the US is going to do about Iran. One possibility is that the US is more hot air than I am wiling to admit. I just wonder whether the Paki ability to talk tough (Claim they have a crore in the bank when they actually have only 5 paise) is a trait picked up from the US. The US responds to most people who talk tough by giving bribes and throwing money. Only when the entity is extraordinarily weak and/or the US also has bakra allies will it actually attack.

Since you asked, I will give you my opinion even though this is not the Iran thread. Look, if you understand US domestic politics, this whole Iran balderdash is driven by the pro-Israel lobby. (Iranians by and large are TFTA and will sign on to US in a heartbeat of only US bestows a fraction of the respect it bestows on TSP. But the pro-Israel lobby will have none of it). It is they who are driving this "lets get Iran" paranoia. And another aspect of US domestic policts is that the US military has huge influence. I mean Obama dare not go against what military says; they will toast his *****(Should Obama push the military around, Fox news will declare him a traitor and tea party Nazis will take to the streets calling for Obama's impeachement). The point I want to highlight is that with US fighting in Iraq, Afganisthan etc, and listening to the sentiment on the street (inclusing from TSP RAPE) they have realized that part of the anti-US sentiment in Muslim countries is due US's slavish support to Israel. And should US attack Iran, can you imagine how much Muslims will be inflammed, notwithstaning that Iran is a Shia Muslim country? Thus, it is the US military in my opinion that is ambivalent of a US Iran showdown no mater how much the pro-Israel lobby wants it. But if it chooses to, US can reduce Iran to a parking lot, Ahmadinejaad's bravado notwithstandng.