West Asia News and Discussions

[Lalmohan]

Dividing Syria along Ethinic lines as in Bosnia would open the door to similar breaking up of other states with Shia or Sunni majority along those lines.

the current borders are relatively arbitrary and are the division of spoils by britain and france after the ottoman collapse

[abhischekcc]

Lets say even if the west does nothing, they are afraid of this ending up with jihadi groups.

No they are not. Everytime the west intervenes somewhere, they put in power the worst fanatics available. Why? Because the more fanatical a government, the more it will keep its population under control. This means less resources for locals, and therefore more for the international 'investors'. This is logic that drives the imperialists to always support fanatics, such as the Brutish empire's love of Islamists.

Intervention or a deal is only a matter of time.

Intervention is no longer an option after the Russians delivered S300 to Assad.

There will only be a deal, with Assad's interests taken care off, and the west given a (perhaps) face saving deal - Assad will agree to 'share' power with somebody.

[habal]

(so-called) Free Syrian Army in retreat



angst of a Free Syrian Army (so-called) supporter

[Austin]

Analysis shows Syria came under attack by Israel using, not just nuclear weapons, but an American nuclear bunker buster bomb, one of several supplied to Israel to use against Iran, one of the last acts of the Bush/Cheney administration.

Was Syria ‘Nuked’?

[shyamd]

No they are not. Everytime the west intervenes somewhere, they put in power the worst fanatics available. Why? Because the more fanatical a government, the more it will keep its population under control. This means less resources for locals, and therefore more for the international 'investors'. This is logic that drives the imperialists to always support fanatics, such as the Brutish empire's love of Islamists.

The quote you have taken is me specifically talking about Chem Weapons. Preparations are already underway to seize them if/when/before Asad falls to prevent them falling into the hands of jihadis.

Intervention is no longer an option after the Russians delivered S300 to Assad.

Firstly, research as to whether the IDF have already been practicing against the S300 in friendly countries.
Secondly, See "Suter", "Big Safari" and see if Israel already has the capabilities and whether these have improved.
Thirdly, S300 will take at least 3 to 6 months to train Syrian crews to use them.
Fourthly, the evidence appears to suggest they havent delivered it yet.

[Austin]

here is some news on Turkey supplying Chemical Weapons to Rebels

Moscow expects Turkey’s explanations for Syrian rebels’ sarin – Lavrov

Moscow is expecting the Turkish authorities’ explanations following the detention on the border of Syrian rebel fighters who carried sarin poisonous gas.

We expect our Turkish colleagues to brief us quickly and fully on the conclusions they have drawn, the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, told a news conference in Moscow earlier on Friday.

Lavrov pointed out that the situation is all too serious to allow those who keep talking of the problem of war chemicals to play games around it.It is indispensable that all related incidents be probed, he said.

Russia has expressed concerns about yesterdays’ reports by Turkish media that the country’s security forces had found a 2kg cylinder with sarin gas after searching the homes of Syrian militants from the Al-Qaeda linked Al-Nusra Front.

"We are extremely concerned with media reports. Russia believes that the use of any chemical weapons is absolutely inadmissible,” Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Alexander Lukashevich is quoted by a Russian TV channel as saying on Thursday.

Earlier this Monday Turkish special anti-terror forces detained 12 suspected members of the Al-Nusra Front, a group affiliated with Al-Qaeda and described as “the most aggressive and successful arm” of the Syrian rebels.

[Austin]

Probably the game plan is to let rebel use this chemical weapon sarin either procured from Turkey or through GCC countries to AL-Nussra front in conflict in Allepo and then blame Assad forces of using CW via media footage of hospitilised victim ?

[Kati]

Unkil's agent got killed in Syria?
http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/USA-Update ... g-in-Syria

[Philip]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 37146.html

Russia's advanced S-300 anti-aircraft missiles have arrived in Syria, President Bashar al-Assad tells Lebanese TV news channel
Comments on long-range weapons made in interview with Hezbollah-owned channel

[nachiket]

Netanyahu Tells Putin: We’ll Destroy S-300s

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu hinted in a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin that if Russia sends S-300 missiles to Syria, Israel will destroy them before they become operational.

[shyamd]

Probably the game plan is to let rebel use this chemical weapon sarin either procured from Turkey or through GCC countries to AL-Nussra front in conflict in Allepo and then blame Assad forces of using CW via media footage of hospitilised victim ?

Initial turkish media reports said the target was Inclirk and Adana base.

[Pranav]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 37146.html

Russia's advanced S-300 anti-aircraft missiles have arrived in Syria, President Bashar al-Assad tells Lebanese TV news channel
Comments on long-range weapons made in interview with Hezbollah-owned channel

Bashar did not say that, it was misinterpreted in a press note released by Al-Manar.

[habal]

the uber wahabbi Jabhat-al-nusra cremate their dead at night.

Hezbollah fighters find Nusra’s tactics in Qusair ‘irritatingly familiar’
May 31, 2013 01:26 AM
By Mirella Hodeib
The Daily Star

Smoke rises from Arjoun and al-Dabaa, the rural northern villages of Qusair, as seen from the Lebanese al-Qasr border village, Wednesday, May 29, 2013. (The Daily Star/Stringer)

HERMEL, Lebanon: Compact trucks packed with men wearing military gear and SUVs with pictures of Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah fill the narrow and damaged streets of Lebanon’s Al-Qasr, just kilometers away from Syria’s war-ravaged city of Qusair.

Since the battle for Qusair erupted earlier this month, the Hermel village of Al-Qasr, in northeast Lebanon, has become a transit point for hundreds of Hezbollah fighters traveling to Qusair to support Syrian government forces against rebels in one of the most controversial episodes of the Syrian conflict.

The public outcry and international condemnation of Hezbollah’s deepening involvement in the Syria battles seem to have left the party’s fighters undeterred and made them even more determined to pursue what they refer to as their “jihadi duties.”

Hermel residents speak of “wait-lists,” because thousands of Hezbollah members and supporters are waiting to enroll in the fighting in Syria.

“Sayyed Hasan has received thousands of letters from people soliciting his approval to join the fight in Syria,” said Mahdi, a Hezbollah fighter who asked to be referred to by a pseudonym in line with his party’s strict policy of secrecy.

During a speech Saturday, the Hezbollah leader said thousands would respond to the party’s call for jihad, but added that not everyone was eligible to join his party’s military wing due to requirements involving family status and training.

“Believe me, many people are really pissed off because they still haven’t been allowed to fight,” the 40-year-old Mahdi smirked.

In his speech, Nasrallah said fighting against Syrian rebels was aimed at safeguarding the resistance and its only sponsor in the Arab region – embattled Syrian President Bashar Assad – as well as defending all Lebanese communities against hard-line Islamist “tafkiri” groups.

Those, like Mahdi, who have fought in Syria, acknowledge that the Syrian rebels have been capable fighters and that for the first time, Hezbollah is facing an enemy of the same ideological caliber and with the same kind of training.

“One must say that they are very well trained and very well-equipped,” Mahdi said. “They own state-of-the-art sniper guns; this is how they’ve hunted down our fallen comrades.”

The frequency of funerals for Hezbollah fighters who have died in Syria significantly increased after the battle of Qusair. Countless posters of “Hezbollah martyrs” line the north-south Bekaa Valley highway that leads to Baalbek.

Coffins wrapped in the party’s yellow flag are being laid to rest in the Baalbek region and south Lebanon on a near-daily basis, and the funeral ceremonies are referred to as “weddings” for the fallen fighters.

“We must celebrate the martyrdom of those who died,” said Jawad, 30, a fighter who recently returned from Qusair and earlier saw duty guarding the Sayyida Zeinab shrine in Damascus. “God honored them by choosing them to die while fighting for a righteous cause.” Jawad maintained that the rebel Free Syrian Army was “totally powerless,” arguing that the extremist Nusra Front was leading the fighting.

“They [rebels] are powerful not only because they apparently have very good training and very sophisticated weaponry,” Jawad said, citing the brutality of Chechen fighters among the ranks of the Nusra Front.

“Nusra is strong because [the fighters] are fearless. I can sense that from the way they launch raids against us,” Jawad continued. “It’s like they really don’t care if they die. They are ruthless and fearless.”

Both Jawad and Mahdi confirmed that many of their comrades were killed in ambushes that were strikingly similar to tactics Hezbollah originally devised when it fought the Israeli army in south Lebanon during the occupation and later on during the 2006 summer war.

“There’s a kind of irritating familiarity,” Jawad noted. “Hezbollah taught Hamas all those tactics to fight the Israelis. Hamas apparently decided to transfer their experience to takfiri groups.”

This demonstrates, according to Jawad, that Hezbollah did not have a sectarian agenda.

“We transferred our experience to a Sunni group – Hamas – and they used it train groups that are now fighting us,” he said.

Hamas, a long-term ally of Assad, shifted sides soon after the uprising erupted, leaving its Damascus headquarters and later openly pledging support to the rebels.

Signs of a rift between the two former allies are slowly becoming palpable in Lebanon too. Tension is increasingly surfacing between the Beirut southern suburbs, the party’s stronghold, and the surrounding refugee camps Sabra, Shatila, and Burj al-Barajneh.

In the past month, the tranquility of the southern suburbs and its neighboring camps has been repeatedly breached by shootouts between Shiite and Palestinian gunmen.

Abbas, a member of the pro-Assad popular committees in the string of border villages located in Syria but inhabited by Lebanese Shiites, said the battle was imposed on Hezbollah.

“Rebels terrorized, threatened and attacked us, but Hezbollah begged us to keep our composure until they started launching rockets at Hermel,” said Abbas, 45. “If Hezbollah hadn’t intervened at some point we would have taken up arms and supported the Syrian army to get rid of [the rebels].”

He said Hezbollah’s policy was to fight the rebels inside Syria so as to avoid cross-border fighting.

“The borders are quasi nonexistent,” he said. “Imagine if neighbors started shooting at each other from each side of the border. Fighting would be uncontrollable and then we’d be facing a real disaster.”

When they were in Qusair, the Hezbollah fighters, who were interviewed separately in Beirut and Hermel, said some of the practices of the Nusra Front fighters left them “speechless.”

Besides the booby-trapped hideouts they leave behind, Nusra fighters have a disconcerting night-time ritual, they said.

“At night they burn the corpses that have accumulated during the day,” Abbas said.

“I still can’t find an explanation for this: What are they trying to do? Why are they hiding the identities of their fighters?” Jawad wondered.

Asked whether they felt they betrayed their initial cause by fighting fellow Arabs and Muslims in Syria instead of focusing their efforts against their primary enemy, Israel, Mahdi was categorical: “Israel and takfiris pose the exact same danger.”

While Jawad acknowledged that the comparison between Hezbollah’s roles in Syria and Israel was legitimate, he said his party was fighting for an equally crucial cause.

“Takfiris have no respect for the land or for human dignity. They are doing monstrous things,” Jawad said. “At least Israelis put our martyrs in coffins and number them.”

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Local- ... z2UveRVL6L
(The Daily Star :: Lebanon News :: http://www.dailystar.com.lb)

[Austin]

Bashar has clearly stated in the interview any further attack on Syria by Israel would be met with retaliation from Syria this time around , the Russians too have said any Israel attack would would ME on war path.

So it remains to be seen beyond Israel rhetoric to attack how much substance it will carry as red lines has been drawn from Syria side.

[eklavya]

Eklavya, how many jihadist groups linked to Al Qaeda are there in Syria and what are their numbers?

Way too many for any civilised person's comfort. The stupid Qataris and barbaric Saudis who pay their wages and give them their weapons, ammunition, fuel and food need to be held to account for sponsoring terrorism.

S300 - you misunderstand my point, Israel has interests and it will protect them (as it has already done recently to prevent Hezbollah acquiring SA17s).

S300 are irrelevant to the fight on the ground in Syria.

If NATO tries to impose a unilateral NFZ without UN resolutions, Russia will respond. The whole S300 issue is a Russian signal to NATO, not to Israel.

If the Israelis do attack and kill Russian armed forces personnel in Syria (involved in setting up the S300s), that may just guarantee that Iran will go nuclear over night and get the long-range missiles to target Israel.

I said IF a NFZ was to be launched they'd have to take out the chemical weapons to prevent their usage in retaliation. S300 is a similar example where Israel will take it out.

There is no logic or basis in fact to your assertion that a NFZ would lead to chemical attack by Syria on Israel or NATO targets.

This is just the type of bogus propaganda one would expect from the Qataris sponsoring Al Qaeda and other assorted Sunni jihadi groups, who may already have used chemical weapons on Syrian civilians.

The attempt to hide behind Israel's interests is pathetic.

Since the stupid Qataris may have now realised that Obama will not do their dirty work for them in Syria, they are trying to use the "Israeli interests" angle to goad Obama into intervening militarily. Another transparently stupid plan of the Qataris and the barbaric Saudis.

Lets say even if the west does nothing, they are afraid of this ending up with jihadi groups. Intervention or a deal is only a matter of time.

The jihadis are sponsored by the stupid Qataris and the barbaric Saudis, and appear to be procuring chemical weapons inside Turkey. I expect the US will be intervening with the Qataris, Saudis and Turks.

[Lalmohan]

obama is wise not to get enmeshed in this one

[shyamd]

@MicahZenko: Snr UK official: "We are likely to be...shipping arms to the rebels by August." http://t.co/aSQNOY3BS1

[eklavya]

Here is the full story.

UK ready to supply arms to Syrian rebels if peace talks fail
May 31, 2013 5:39 pm

By James Blitz and Roula Khalaf in London and Abigail Fielding-Smith in Beirut

The UK is poised to ship arms to some rebel factions in Syria as soon as this summer if a planned peace conference in Geneva this month fails to make significant progress, according to British officials.
Britain and France this week forced through an amendment to an EU arms embargo that opened the door for the supply of weapons to opposition forces.

Britain’s Foreign Office insists that no final decision on whether to arm the rebels has yet been made. But a senior UK diplomat told the Financial Times that Britain could be in a position to arm the rebels this summer if, as many expect, the planned peace conference in Geneva fails to make headway.

“The precise timing has not yet been finalised and no decision has yet been taken. But we are likely to be ... shipping arms to the rebels by August,” the official said.

“What I expect is that over the next two or three months western powers will move low-grade arms supplies in bulk to the rebels. The rebels need ammunition, and a lot of it, just to keep fighting.”

Another British official told the FT that there were strong expectations in Britain and France that the US might also provide weapons supplies if peace talks fail, despite the reluctance so far of the Obama administration to step up its engagement in Syria.

In recent weeks, the US had secretly undertaken significant lobbying of EU member states in order to get the EU arms embargo amended, the official said.

Syrian rebel sources are also saying they are expecting the first new arms supplies to come from Britain as early as this summer. Syrian opposition officials, meanwhile, say the UK has promised arms supplies as part of London’s attempts to persuade dissident leaders to join the Geneva peace talks.

The so-called “Geneva 2” conference is being arranged by the US and Russia, but no date has yet been set. President Bashar al-Assad’s regime says it is ready to attend in principle. The acting head of the Syrian National Coalition, the main opposition group, has said it cannot participate in the light of increased Iranian and Hizbollah involvement in Syria, though this is not expected to be the coalition’s final word. A preparatory meeting is expected to take place next week.

In recent weeks, government forces have made a series of gains in strategically important areas, squeezing rebel supply routes to the Damascus suburbs and re-opening a highway linking Damascus and the Jordanian border.

For almost two weeks, Syrian armed forces backed by the Lebanese militant group Hizbollah have been bombarding the city of Qusair, a vital link in the regime’s strategic corridor between its coastal heartlands and the capital, and the rebels’ last stronghold in central Syria.

Both anti-government activists and Hizbollah’s news service have reported the fall of more villages surrounding Qusair in recent days, tightening the regime’s stranglehold on the besieged city.

One of the UK officials said: “The rebels need a lot of ammunition just to keep fighting, and Qatar and Saudi Arabia cannot supply them with what they need in the required quantity.”

Qatar and Saudi Arabia have been the main weapons suppliers so far, but rebels complain the shipments are irregular.

William Hague, Britain’s foreign secretary, told parliament last week that there would be an opportunity for MPs to debate the provision of weapons for the rebels before a final decision was taken.

● Russia’s MiG aircraft maker said on Friday that it planned to sign a new agreement to ship at least 10 fighter jets to Syria, a move that comes amid international criticism of earlier Russian weapons deals with the Assad regime, The Associated Press reports from Moscow.

Sergei Korotkov, MiG’s director-general, said a Syrian delegation was in Moscow to discuss the details of a new contract for the delivery of MiG-29 M/M2 fighters. In remarks carried by Russian news agencies, he said Syria wanted to buy “more than 10’’ such fighters, but would not give the exact number.
Russia has said it is only providing Mr Assad with weapons intended to protect Syria from a foreign invasion, such as air defence missile systems. It has claimed it is not delivering weapons that could be used in Syria’s two-year civil war, which has killed more than 70,000 people and sent millions fleeing the country.

But the delivery of MiGs would contradict that claim and expose Russia to global criticism, so the Kremlin might think twice before giving the go-ahead.

Moscow has shipped billions of dollars’ worth of missiles, combat jets, tanks, artillery and other military gear to Syria over more than 40 years. Syria now is Russia’s last remaining ally in the Middle East and hosts the only naval base Moscow has outside the former Soviet Union.

Russian media reports say Syria placed an order a few years ago for 12 MiG-29 M/M2 fighters, with an option of buying another 12. The Stockholm Peace Research Institute has also reported Russian plans to provide Syria with 24 of the aircraft.

[eklavya]

Here is another interesting piece in the FT:

Have we reached the turning point in Syria?
Ian Bremmer May 30, 2013

In the past few days, we have seen groundbreaking news out of Syria that has not so much transformed the nature of the crisis as confirmed it. It is clearer than ever that the Syrian war will be a long and protracted fight with neither side capable of toppling the other. With Hizbollah and Russia publicly doubling down on supporting President Bashar al-Assad – and Israel reacting with equal and opposite statements – the battle lines are bolder in what is becoming a full-fledged proxy war.

Not only are the major players from outside the region failing to find solutions: they cannot streamline their own policies at home nor work together to protect against the most dangerous downside risks. The bottom line: it should now be taken as conventional wisdom that the Syrian crisis has surpassed the Iranian nuclear threat as the biggest danger coming out of the region – and it is only getting worse.

On Monday, we saw indications that both the EU and the US might be more inclined to arm certain factions of the Syrian opposition. The EU’s foreign ministers allowed the arms embargo to Syria to lapse. Senator John McCain slipped over the Turkish-Syrian border to meet the rebels. But the EU’s actions were more a product of its member countries’ inability to collaborate rather than a co-ordinated push to arm the rebels.

While the UK and France were strongly opposed to the embargo, many other countries, including Austria, the Czech Republic, the Netherlands and Sweden, wanted to uphold it. As far as Mr McCain’s visit goes, he was in the country for all of two hours – and his stance deviates dramatically from President Barack Obama’s reluctance to intervene (a hesitance that the American people share). And Mr McCain would not need two hours in Syria to realise the rebels with western support are losing power to more extremist factions of the opposition. For the US and the EU, these steps are more incremental and uncoordinated than they first appear; western powers are becoming more enmeshed in the conflict in a halting and reactive fashion.

Far more important were headlines pertaining to Mr Assad’s supporters (and Israel’s ensuing reaction to those statements). Hizbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah publicly announced his party’s full commitment of military and political resources to support the Assad regime, claiming “this battle is ours … and I promise victory”. He also argued that Hizbollah’s commitment to Mr Assad did not necessitate Lebanon’s involvement: “We call again for Lebanon to be left out of any confrontation. You want to fight in Syria? Let’s fight there but preserve the neutrality of Lebanon. Why should we fight in Lebanon?”

Mr Nasrallah may be in for a rude awakening as he realises that in a proxy war, you cannot pick a side and keep your base of operations out of it. It is fair to say that Lebanon is now a direct party to the Syrian war. Two missiles were launched into Shia areas of Beirut the day after Mr Nasrallah’s speech – and military confrontation is now likely to expand across the country. Lebanon’s upcoming parliamentary elections, set for June, will probably be delayed, and prospects of a reignited war with Israel are growing – all of which could spell trouble for the Lebanese economy.

Russia’s latest actions are the other key story. Just a few weeks ago, US secretary of state John Kerry travelled to Moscow and secured a Russian commitment to engage in Syrian peace talks in Geneva. President Vladimir Putin made Mr Kerry wait three hours before he met him (perhaps an inauspicious sign of what was to come). Russia called the EU decision to let the arms embargo lapse “illegitimate,” and hinted that it could derail the US-Russia talks. Moscow went much further, reasserting its commitment to the Assad regime with a pledge to send S-300 air defence missiles that it claims would be a “stabilising factor” against “hot-heads considering a scenario to give an international dimension to the conflict”. If keeping the crisis from going international was the goal, it is a clear miscalculation. Israel announced that it would retaliate with strikes should Russia go through with the shipments. Moshe Yaalon, the Israeli defence minister, said: “If [the shipments] do arrive in Syria, God forbid, we’ll know what to do.”

So as outside powers take sides in the Syrian struggle, and the regime consolidates its military gains, we are getting closer to a Shia-Sunni war that will spill beyond Syria – creating fragmentation in Iraq, threatening the monarchy in Jordan and bringing Israel into direct military confrontation with proximate perceived security threats on an ongoing basis. International governments understand the risks involved and are likely to push with far more vigour to ensure negotiations occur quickly (with Russia and now China both signing on to direct participation). But it is too little too late, with no capacity to facilitate a near-term resolution or even a ceasefire – and a growing capacity for missteps that could lead to rapid escalation.

Unless we see a dramatic shift, the trajectory remains clear. The situation will metastasise, and it will force further reluctant and incremental intervention from the US and some members of the EU, mainly the UK and France. Call it “cautious escalation”, a worst-case scenario where western powers neither cut loose from their obligations nor expand their involvement in a co-ordinated and efficient manner.

Syria is now the poster child for the G-Zero – a global power vacuum where there is no durable alliance of countries willing and able to set the international agenda. In just a matter of months, it has become all too clear that the Syrian war, not Iranian nuclear development (despite an expanding nuclear programme, as documented by last week’s IAEA report) is the greatest risk factor in the region.

What will the next few months bring? The looming danger, and the likeliest path, is that the Syrian war expands as more outside players dig their heels in – or get pulled into the proxy war despite dragging their heels as much as they can.

The writer is the president of Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy, and author of ‘Every Nation for Itself: Winners and Losers in a G-Zero World’

[shyamd]

http://angryarab.blogspot.co.uk/2013/05 ... rt-on.html posted on Wednesday


This picture was taken only a few days ago by a Hizbullah fighter in Qusayr. Hizbullah fighters are under strict instructions to not take pictures but many do and many are sending messages through Whatsup. I have received the information and pictures from Qusayr from a sister of someone who was there, who shall not be identified. Here is what I know: that the first two days of fighting was rather easy for the fighters but then they were slowed down. As they continued their advance, they were met by heavy resistance mounted mostly by Chechnyan fighters. The most deadly weapon used against Hizbullah fighters was the method used by Chechnyan fighters: they dig a hole in the ground at the doorstep of the house (as in the hole seen above in the picture), and then they shoot from below at the fighters as they enter. They then shoot them in the head when they fall down. Most Hizbullah casualties were suffered in those encounters (a stupid sleazy--literally in the case of this one--Hariri website did mention that oddly many Hizbullah fighters were shot in the foot, and it stupidly speculated that they were deliberately doing that to themselves to be pulled out from battle, while in reality the party has been receiving more volunteers than it can accommodate). Hizbullah fighters, I am told, were shocked at the state of the Syrian army: that they are so ill-equipped and ill-prepared and ill-supplied. They now say that matters improved for the "battle" and that they now control some 45% of the area. Personally, I don't know how this will go. Nasrallah spoke about "victory" in his last speech, but what is victory for the party in Syria? How would it be defined? I write about this in my weekly article in Al-Akhbar this Saturday.

--------------
Qatari Emir expected to abdicate at some points due to ill health. He has had double kidney transplant in the 90s

[Austin]

Iraq says it busts Qaeda poison gas cell

Iraq's defence ministry said on Saturday that it has broken up an Al-Qaeda cell that was working to produce poison gas at two locations in the capital.

The group of five people built two facilities to produce sarin and mustard gas, using instructions from another Al-Qaeda group, spokesman Mohammed al-Askari told a news conference.

[Shanmukh]

Here is the full story.

UK ready to supply arms to Syrian rebels if peace talks fail
May 31, 2013 5:39 pm

By James Blitz and Roula Khalaf in London and Abigail Fielding-Smith in Beirut

The UK is poised to ship arms to some rebel factions in Syria as soon as this summer if a planned peace conference in Geneva this month fails to make significant progress, according to British officials.
Britain and France this week forced through an amendment to an EU arms embargo that opened the door for the supply of weapons to opposition forces.

Britain’s Foreign Office insists that no final decision on whether to arm the rebels has yet been made. But a senior UK diplomat told the Financial Times that Britain could be in a position to arm the rebels this summer if, as many expect, the planned peace conference in Geneva fails to make headway.

“The precise timing has not yet been finalised and no decision has yet been taken. But we are likely to be ... shipping arms to the rebels by August,” the official said.

“What I expect is that over the next two or three months western powers will move low-grade arms supplies in bulk to the rebels. The rebels need ammunition, and a lot of it, just to keep fighting.”

Another British official told the FT that there were strong expectations in Britain and France that the US might also provide weapons supplies if peace talks fail, despite the reluctance so far of the Obama administration to step up its engagement in Syria.

In recent weeks, the US had secretly undertaken significant lobbying of EU member states in order to get the EU arms embargo amended, the official said.

Syrian rebel sources are also saying they are expecting the first new arms supplies to come from Britain as early as this summer. Syrian opposition officials, meanwhile, say the UK has promised arms supplies as part of London’s attempts to persuade dissident leaders to join the Geneva peace talks.

The so-called “Geneva 2” conference is being arranged by the US and Russia, but no date has yet been set. President Bashar al-Assad’s regime says it is ready to attend in principle. The acting head of the Syrian National Coalition, the main opposition group, has said it cannot participate in the light of increased Iranian and Hizbollah involvement in Syria, though this is not expected to be the coalition’s final word. A preparatory meeting is expected to take place next week.

In recent weeks, government forces have made a series of gains in strategically important areas, squeezing rebel supply routes to the Damascus suburbs and re-opening a highway linking Damascus and the Jordanian border.

For almost two weeks, Syrian armed forces backed by the Lebanese militant group Hizbollah have been bombarding the city of Qusair, a vital link in the regime’s strategic corridor between its coastal heartlands and the capital, and the rebels’ last stronghold in central Syria.

Both anti-government activists and Hizbollah’s news service have reported the fall of more villages surrounding Qusair in recent days, tightening the regime’s stranglehold on the besieged city.

One of the UK officials said: “The rebels need a lot of ammunition just to keep fighting, and Qatar and Saudi Arabia cannot supply them with what they need in the required quantity.”

Qatar and Saudi Arabia have been the main weapons suppliers so far, but rebels complain the shipments are irregular.

William Hague, Britain’s foreign secretary, told parliament last week that there would be an opportunity for MPs to debate the provision of weapons for the rebels before a final decision was taken.

● Russia’s MiG aircraft maker said on Friday that it planned to sign a new agreement to ship at least 10 fighter jets to Syria, a move that comes amid international criticism of earlier Russian weapons deals with the Assad regime, The Associated Press reports from Moscow.

Sergei Korotkov, MiG’s director-general, said a Syrian delegation was in Moscow to discuss the details of a new contract for the delivery of MiG-29 M/M2 fighters. In remarks carried by Russian news agencies, he said Syria wanted to buy “more than 10’’ such fighters, but would not give the exact number.
Russia has said it is only providing Mr Assad with weapons intended to protect Syria from a foreign invasion, such as air defence missile systems. It has claimed it is not delivering weapons that could be used in Syria’s two-year civil war, which has killed more than 70,000 people and sent millions fleeing the country.

But the delivery of MiGs would contradict that claim and expose Russia to global criticism, so the Kremlin might think twice before giving the go-ahead.

Moscow has shipped billions of dollars’ worth of missiles, combat jets, tanks, artillery and other military gear to Syria over more than 40 years. Syria now is Russia’s last remaining ally in the Middle East and hosts the only naval base Moscow has outside the former Soviet Union.

Russian media reports say Syria placed an order a few years ago for 12 MiG-29 M/M2 fighters, with an option of buying another 12. The Stockholm Peace Research Institute has also reported Russian plans to provide Syria with 24 of the aircraft.

If the Brits actually supply arms to the al Qaeda (in its various guises), it will be interesting to see what the Brits do to prevent those guns from being turned against the Brits and other Europeans, once the al Qaeda has gained power in Syria.

[eklavya]

nageshks, you make a very good point. It would be remarkably irresponsible of the British government to arm the assorted Sunni jihadis in Syria. After what happened in Woolwich, and the huge problems they have faced in Helmand province, you would think the British government would have to be completely mad to arm these sort of people in the Middle East. For now the lifting of the arms embargo is just a tactic to pressure the Syrian regime. If they actually start handing over guns and bullets to Al Qaeda, the UK government will find itself in very serious trouble.

[shyamd]

"Rather than a quick and relatively painless affair, any effort to dismantle Syria's air defenses as part of enforcing a no-fly zone would be tantamount to a declaration of war, cautioned NATO's new military chief, Gen. Philip Breedlove. "It is quite frankly an act of war and it is not a trivial matter," said Breedlove, NATO's new supreme allied commanderr and head of U.S. European Command, during a recent Thursday to Naples, Italy."
http://www.stripes.com/news/breedlove-n ... r-1.223788

Americans have lent on the Saudis to stop supplying from the south since late April. Will be interesting to see why

[shyamd]

Security sources: SEVERAL FIGHTERS KILLED IN OVERNIGHT CLASH IN #LEBANON'S EASTERN BEKAA VALLEY BETWEEN #HEZBOLLAH AND #SYRIA REBELS

Hezbollah trying to cut off FSA supply lines. Meanwhile in qusayr fighting still ongoing. State TV showing tunnels used by rebels to supply in and out. Reinforcements arrived and have taken back one village. However rebels still besieged inside and are desperate for food (you know when the human rights activists organisations are screaming out loud about the situation inside they want to be bailed out).

Also worth a read: Russian, Iranian technology is boosting #Assad’s assault on Syrian rebels, by @JobyWarrick http://t.co/5MkT48YXDc #Syria

IDF AF Jets over Beirut (flew low). 4 sonic booms heard from regime forces mig jets over Damascus this morning.


@Brown_Moses: A wire-guided missile fired at a T-72 in Mansoura, #Damascus causing a enormous explosion http://t.co/Q7GW3rNIrg h/t @ArtWendeley

Does anyone know what missile this is?

[member_20292]

Why should he hand over Syria to Al Qaeda? Some people like the stupid Qatari emir just keep ignoring the obvious answer (i.e. nothing has changed and nothing is worse for the US than an Al Qaeda ruled Syria, because that will cost the US government $1tn and 3,000 lives down the line).

Precisely. The US, by now, has (hopefully) realized that the middle eastern nations are best ruled by dictators with an iron hand. Democracy does not run in the vocabulary of the middle east, and the US is not about to waste precious money trying to teach them "D for democracy".

Gulf War 2, was the first time, the US had tried a military invasion of a middle eastern nation and a conscious effort at building a new nation state.

I don't believe that that was a cost effective solution. They would have done far better to leave Saddam in peace and just pump out all his oil through ~approximately~ friendly agreements.

Unlike you and I and Indian govt., the US has been in that rat hole of the middle east, for around 50 years. They do realize the nature of the beast. In fact, if it weren't for Dubya's dubious decisions, they would have stuck to Af-Pak.

I don't believe that they are about to supply the rebel fighters. At all. A strong minded dictator, with a mercantile bent of mind is the best situation for any of these bozo countries. Like Saudi. Qatar.

Even is Assad was anti west, and pro Russia, he at least had running factories and Oil was being pumped to Western companies in peace.

The militia are going to take 30 years to get their head right vis a vis nation running. Like it or not, Syria is best left for Assad to handle.

Whoever started this mess (Saudi etc.) should be told to f off. I am surprised India doesn't wade in and tell the govt. of Saudi to keep its Islamic values to itself and stop promoting Wahabbi Islam in Pak, and the rest of the middle east.

[Austin]

I am surprised India doesn't wade in and tell the govt. of Saudi to keep its Islamic values to itself and stop promoting Wahabbi Islam in Pak, and the rest of the middle east.

They do but no one listens to GOI , If Paki does not listen to us and cares a f about GOI why would Saudi the mecca of Wahaabi would listen , if ever GOI gather the balls to tell them they would just tell us STFU or we will deport the indians back.

The only way to make them listen is to yeald a big stick and beat them , these are cave tribe men and they understand that language and that you can count on figure which country can do.

@Brown_Moses: A wire-guided missile fired at a T-72 in Mansoura, #Damascus causing a enormous explosion http://t.co/Q7GW3rNIrg h/t @ArtWendeley

Does anyone know what missile this is?

Seems U tube removed the video.

[Prem]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IL88FRd3 ... ded#t=270s

Syrian army attacking the terrorists.

[shyamd]

@Brown_Moses: A wire-guided missile fired at a T-72 in Mansoura, #Damascus causing a enormous explosion http://t.co/Q7GW3rNIrg h/t @ArtWendeley

Does anyone know what missile this is?

Seems U tube removed the video.

Konkurs apparently - 3 videos today released of ATGM strikes in various parts of the country.

[shyamd]

Somethings up - all people in know staying quiet about this one...
Gulf Arab countries to consider action against Hezbollah

In Syria, Hezbollah forces appear ready to attack rebels in city of Aleppo

By Loveday Morris, Updated: Sunday, June 2, 7:30 PM

BEIRUT— Lebanese Hezbollah militants have massed in and around the northern Syrian city of Aleppo, a senior commander in the Lebanese Shiite movement said Saturday, broadening the group’s backing of President Bashar al-Assad’s forces and stoking fears of an imminent assault on the city.

The commander, who declined to be named because he is not authorized to speak to the media, said there were about 2,000 Hezbollah fighters in Aleppo province, largely stationed in Shiite towns north of the city. Rebels said Hezbollah forces had entered the city itself Sunday and were preparing for an attack.

Rebels have secured swaths of Aleppo — Syria’s commercial capital and most populous city — since fighting engulfed the city last summer, but the front lines have been locked in a stalemate. An assault on the city could stretch rebel forces, which have sent reinforcements from Aleppo to fight against Hezbollah and Syrian army troops in the battle for the town of Qusair, near the Lebanese border.

The presence of Hezbollah’s guerrilla fighters in Syria’s north point to its widening support for the government in the wake of its leader Hasan Nasrallah’s pledge to back Assad until the end. Previously, the Hezbollah fighters largely had been concentrated in Qusair and the Damascus suburbs, where they are guarding the Shiite shrine of Sayyida Zaynab.

“The Aleppo battle has started on a very small scale, we’ve only just entered the game,” said the commander, who was on leave from fighting in Qusair, where he oversees five units. “We are going to go after strongholds where they think they are safe. They are going to fall like dominos.”

He said that the militants were largely concentrated in the Shiite towns of Zahra and Nubol, which have been under siege from largely Sunni rebel forces. A spokesman for Hezbollah said he could not confirm or deny their presence.

On Sunday, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) said that the infiltration of Hezbollah fighters into Syria — along with the supply of weapons from Russia and Iran — has helped turn the tide of the war in favor of the government of President Bashar al-Assad.

“We are seeing, unfortunately, a battlefield situation where Bashar al-Assad now has the upper hand, and it’s tragic,” McCain, who slipped into Syria last week to meet with rebel fighters, said on CBS’s “Face the Nation.”

McCain, who has repeatedly called for military action in Syria and who has been among the harshest critics of the Obama administration on the issue, recalled claims from U.S. officials dating back more than year ago that Assad’s fall was inevitable.

“I think we can’t make that statement today,” he said. “Hezbollah [has] now invaded. The Iranians are there. Russia is pouring weapons in. And anybody that believes that Bashar Assad is going to go to a conference in Geneva when he is prevailing on the battlefield — it’s just ludicrous to assume that.”

McCain was referring to an international conference planned for later this month or possibly July to bring the warring sides together. Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.), appearing after McCain on the program, said that that conference, and not Western military intervention, must be the focus of attempts to find a solution to the violence in Syria.

“I don’t think we take any options off the table, but the first priority is to see if we can make a breakthrough politically,” Reed said.

Still, he acknowledged that Assad, after appearing to be on his “last legs” months ago, “has regrouped.”

Louay al-Mokdad, political and media coordinator for the Free Syrian Army, said Hezbollah militants had gathered at a military academy in Aleppo’s western district of Hamdaniya on Sunday. He put the number of the Shiite movement’s soldiers in the area at 4,000, citing rebel intelligence.

“We think they are going to engage inside Aleppo and the province,” he said.

Liwa al-Tawhid Brigade, one of the main rebel groups in the area, has sent fighters from Aleppo to back up rebel forces in Qusair, where pro-government forces backed by Hezbollah have made significant gains in recent days.

However, Mokdad said rebels were prepared for a battle on both fronts.

In a video posted online Saturday, a battalion of the Liwa al-Tawhid Brigade declared it was leaving for Zahra and Nubol to fight the “party of the devil,” a term often used by rebels to refer to Hezbollah, which translates as Party of God.

Hezbollah’s decision to knuckle into the fight raises the specter of a regional conflagration spilling over Syria’s borders, pitting Sunni against Shiite. Underscoring that point, Syrian rebels and Hezbollah fighters clashed on Lebanese soil for the first time Sunday. As many as 15 Free Syrian Army members were killed when Hezbollah ambushed a group suspected of firing rockets at the Lebanese town of Baalbek a day earlier, a Lebanese security official told Reuters.

[eklavya]

Somethings up - all people in know staying quiet about this one...
Gulf Arab countries to consider action against Hezbollah

The "people in the know" are "staying quiet" about a Reuters story?

The only thing the GCC can do is demonstrate its impotence.

Funny passage in the story you linked:

Ghanem al-Buainain said the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) regarded Hezbollah's involvement in Syria as "sectarian intervention"

Bit rich of the Wahhabi terrorism sponsors in Qatar and KSA to accuse anybody else of sectarianism. These hooligans have elevated sectarianism to a finely honed state sponsored racket over a period of 15 centuries.

al-Buainain obviously skipped or was not pay attention during his lessons on "irony".

[Mahendra]

Ah not to worry, looks like Mia Al Banian lost his chaddi as well as Banian to the rag tag Hezbollah . It is not surprising that the third rate, rabid GCC canines have come up with a typically pawki reaction of alleging 'sectarianism' when facing minor reverses.

I hope Assad delivers a few scuds up the Musharaff of the Wahabi GCC mongrels who have been punching way above their weight.

[shyamd]

Qatar seeks Indian help to set up IIT, IIM

Kuwaiti royals, filmmaker fight over Rs 70 cr flat

Divyesh Singh, Mumbai Mirror | Jun 2, 2013, 06.34 AM IST

MUMBAI: The royal family of Kuwait is locked in a bitter dispute with a small-time Bollywood producer over a 7,000-sq ft apartment on Marine Drive, which the family claims has been illegally occupied by the filmmaker.

While the Rs 70-crore flat itself is worth fighting for, there is something more vital at stake here - the sea-facing apartment on the top floor of the Al-Sabah Court building houses a strong room belonging to the royal family. Though everybody is tight-lipped about the strong room's contents, given the owner's profile the Marine Drive police, who have received a complaint from the family's caretaker, is not taking any chances.

The caretaker, former Kuwaiti consul-general Faizal Essa Al-Yousuf Al-Essa , in his complaint has accused the filmmaker Sanjay Punamiya of preventing a team of lawyers from MZM Legal from inspecting the apartment on Thursday .

Essa, 83, who left for Kuwait in April this year following a kidney replacement surgery after spending 40 years in India, has alleged that Punamiya forcibly occupied the flat in his absence. Punamiya, however, has a different story. He claims Essa handed over the flat's tenancy to him in October 2012 for a rent of Rs 50,000 a month. In a private complaint at Esplanade Court, he has alleged that Essa threatened him at gun-point , asking him to vacate the property.

The entire Al-Sabah Court building was bought by the royal family in the early 1950s, while the neighbouring Al-Jaberia building is in possession of fellow royals, the Jabars. Both the properties are exempted from taxes under a diplomatic agreement between India and Kuwait. Both properties were being looked after by Essa till 2010, when he requested the then king, His Highness Shaikh Saad Al-Abdullah Al-Salem Al-Sabah , to transfer Al-Jaberia's administrative powers to a certain Nabil Darbar, while he continued looking after Al-Sabah . When the king passed away later that year, his heirs renewed Essa's administrative powers over Al-Sabah .

Punamiya, sources said, had made an abortive attempt to take control of the top floor of Al-Jaberia too in 2011, by filing a complaint against Nabil Darbar similar to the one he has now made against Essa. The police, however, dismissed the complaint.

"I had made a cheque payment for the tenancy rights of which I have records. These were produced in court and also checked by Marine Drive police. Essa has been misusing the property and rights given to a diplomat despite having retired forty years ago. The Indian government should have checked this," Sanjay Punamiya said. "He had given me possession of the flat. But when he went to Kuwait and his employers pulled him up for this, he went back on his word, claiming he had made no deal with me," he added.

Zulfiquar Memon of MZM Legal , however, denied this. "Punamiya has taken forceful possession of the apartment on the basis of a false complaint and fraudulent papers," he said.

[Shanmukh]

Somethings up - all people in know staying quiet about this one...
Gulf Arab countries to consider action against Hezbollah

The "people in the know" are "staying quiet" about a Reuters story?

The only thing the GCC can do is demonstrate its impotence.

I think they have already thrown everything they have into Syria. Actually, a resounding victory for Assad may not be bad at all. Will that mean that a generation worth of Sunni terrorists from all over the world will bite it in Syria? In any case, we are the winners as long as the al Qaeda don't win a full victory. With the Hezbollah committed into Syria, their chances of making mischief in Lebanon (and Israel) will be correspondingly diminished. Further, the Syrian war is drawing all Sunni terrorists there. My only fear is that they will let up and begin to go back to their old countries, if Assad proves a nut too tough to crack. As long as all the terrorists (both Shia and Sunni) are drained into Syria, it is good for us infidels.

[Shanmukh]

nageshks, you make a very good point. It would be remarkably irresponsible of the British government to arm the assorted Sunni jihadis in Syria. After what happened in Woolwich, and the huge problems they have faced in Helmand province, you would think the British government would have to be completely mad to arm these sort of people in the Middle East. For now the lifting of the arms embargo is just a tactic to pressure the Syrian regime. If they actually start handing over guns and bullets to Al Qaeda, the UK government will find itself in very serious trouble.

I agree. It is likely that this is a game of diplomatic chicken, and a desire to be seen doing something. Actually, the west has not done much to arm the rebels. All they have done is make loud noises in favour of their Arab allies. But even for their Arab allies, they are not willing to send arms, which shows they do understand the nature of the war in Syria. Let us hope they stay that way, and can withstand the pressure (both internal and external - there are plenty of demonstrators for the Syrian Sunni jihadi thugs in the west, and their Arab allies are also pressurising them to do something to save their jihad investments in Syria).

[habal]

Ghanem al-Buainain said the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) regarded Hezbollah's involvement in Syria as "sectarian intervention"

what animal then is this jabhat-al-doosra ?

non-sectarian, socially progressive, ethical vegan, gay rights supporters types maybe ..

[Shanmukh]

Ghanem al-Buainain said the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) regarded Hezbollah's involvement in Syria as "sectarian intervention"

what animal then is this jabhat-al-doosra ?

non-sectarian, socially progressive, ethical vegan, gay rights supporters types maybe ..

They are all secular onlee, habal-ji.

[shyamd]

Russia's delivery of the S-300 to Syria would not be complete before next year - @Nana10 quoting Israeli defence minister @Bogie_Yaalon

[Austin]

There was news from Israel that they are fine with Russians manning the S-300 but not the Syrians and the S-300 is more to deter the NATO No Fly Zone

[RoyG]

Mccain admits that SAA has gained the upper hand.

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=a62_1370274858