Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 13 Apr 2025 22:34

Suraj wrote: ↑12 Apr 2025 23:05 Meanwhile, quietly the Jal Jeevan Mission dashboard ticked past 80% of the country now having a household water connection:

https://ejalshakti.gov.in/jjmreport/JJMIndia.aspx

It's almost impossible to imagine how bad it was less than 6 years ago.

Thanks for the update Surajsan. If you click on the button, it will show House Hold supply (HHs) between today and 15 Aug 2019. Back then <17% of rural HH had tap water supply. Today it is >80%. This is an achievement. The Modi government has finally come to completing bijli, paani, sadak. Everything in the past, and to some political parties, is still about roti, kapda, makan.

uddu · Post by **uddu** » 14 Apr 2025 20:34

India took the $10 trillion bet!
Sanjeev Sanyal on Trump's Tariffs and India’s Economic Strategy: You Can’t Miss This!

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 14 Apr 2025 22:05

S_Madhukar wrote: ↑13 Apr 2025 09:26 It is only now that we have articulated a vision and hence we now know what kind of labour we need and areas of focus.
Since our internal market wasn’t rich we ended up exporting IT Labour that was the only Western equivalent workforce.
Now is the time to retool our ITIs and bring them on par with IITs etc… we need champion machinists and welders too… I recall Japanese and Korean National TV have such competitions for best welder etc and may be Germans too . Can’t believe despite following Socialism we let worker skills wither. We might still poach some back specially ones in …

Saw this: “Tim Cook said way back in 2015 that the time when the US was capable of manufacturing at this kind of scale is long gone.
‘China put an enormous focus on manufacturing. The U.S., over time, began to stop having as many vocational kind of skills. I mean, you can take every tool and die maker in the United States and probably put them in a room that we’re currently sitting in. In China, you would have to have multiple football fields.’”

Can we understand better what India has and what it needs to improve in this regard?

drnayar · Post by **drnayar** » 15 Apr 2025 08:40

How India’s middle-class debt crisis is threatening growth - https://on.ft.com/4luW8oA via @FT

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 15 Apr 2025 12:21

Behind pay wall Saar, could you kindly post a summary. Thank you

rajkumar · Post by **rajkumar** » 15 Apr 2025 13:08

Cyrano wrote: ↑15 Apr 2025 12:21 Behind pay wall Saar, could you kindly post a summary. Thank you

https://archive.ph/FPHGt

How India’s middle-class debt crisis is threatening growth
A rise in unsecured credit among a consumer group that symbolises the country’s investment potential is hurting its economic ambitions

Shoppers at a mall in New Delhi. A surge in retail lending has led to a sharp rise in household debt © Anindito Mukherjee/Bloomberg

Chris Kay in Mumbai and Krishn Kaushik in New Delhi
Published
Apr 14 2025

Anurag likes to claim he has become numb to the dozens of calls and multiple visits he receives daily from debt collectors to his home in an upwardly middle-class suburb of Mumbai.
But that harassment reached a new pinnacle about a month ago when he says an agent employed by an Indian bank phoned his wife’s boss to complain about his arrears, putting acute pressure on his family and subjecting them to wider shame and ostracism.
“This financial struggle has caused a lot of depression that I won’t discuss with anybody,” says Anurag, who is in his 50s and asked for his identity to be concealed. Since losing his travel agency job late last year, he has racked up $13,000 in debt and depleted his savings......

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 15 Apr 2025 20:00

Can't see why they are blaming Modi for unsecured personal loans contracted by fully grown adults! The phenomenon itself is not new, more channels have opened up.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 16 Apr 2025 03:52

Exclusive: After Trump, EU seeks zero tariff from India on car imports, sources say

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos- ... 025-04-07/

NEW DELHI,
April 7

The European Union wants India to eliminate tariffs on car imports under a long-pending trade deal and Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government is willing to sweeten its current proposal to seal the talks.

India is open to the phased reduction of tariffs to 10% from more than 100%, two industry sources and a government official said.

That is despite industry lobbying for India to retain at least a 30% tariff even if it starts reducing the levy, and also not tinker with import duties on EVs for four more years to protect domestic players.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 16 Apr 2025 03:57

Cyrano wrote: ↑15 Apr 2025 20:00 Can't see why they are blaming Modi for unsecured personal loans contracted by fully grown adults! The phenomenon itself is not new, more channels have opened up.

Cyrano ji,

Every credit card company and bank is very aggressively pushing these unsecured loans.

Spammed constantly by messages, calls, and emails

This is not the kosher way to do business

The odd text, or a call now and then was something that couldn't be helped but this carpet bombing is way beyond what was happening earlier.

any grown ass adult should take the responsibility for his/her finances and also own the liability for the debt resolution, and not blame the bank or the PM for the mess he/she lands in with such loans

Invariably such loans don't result in any assets being built but mostly to fund flashy spending

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 16 Apr 2025 10:35

Exactly!

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 19 Apr 2025 21:29

Wrote this article for SwarajyaMag:
India’s PPP GDP Growth: Is This The Most Underrated Part Of Its Economic Story?

ernest · Post by **ernest** » 19 Apr 2025 23:41

Suraj wrote: ↑19 Apr 2025 21:29 Wrote this article for SwarajyaMag:
India’s PPP GDP Growth: Is This The Most Underrated Part Of Its Economic Story?

This was a good comparison of growth at the different stages of development. I felt like you'd shared something similar on this thread earlier too, because I clearly remember seeing these graphs for China/India. Great storytelling method

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 20 Apr 2025 07:34

Suraj wrote: ↑19 Apr 2025 21:29 Wrote this article for SwarajyaMag:
India’s PPP GDP Growth: Is This The Most Underrated Part Of Its Economic Story?

Another great article!

I wonder if there is some way to quantify how much the different countries relied on FDI and exports to fuel their growth, and where India is in the spectrum.

suryag · Post by **suryag** » 20 Apr 2025 08:42

Love it suraj sir, this is indeed a perspective that i always wondered about. I mean one dosa is 60 rs in BLR and the same dosa is 12$ at the minimum, so if you produce one dosa what will you count it as towards GDP although the dosa is the same. Shatakoti naman to you sir

drnayar · Post by **drnayar** » 21 Apr 2025 12:36

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn7x6z4gd1zo

Technology that can turn sludge from sewage into both hydrogen fuel and the miracle material graphene

nandakumar · Post by **nandakumar** » 21 Apr 2025 14:14

Suraj wrote: ↑19 Apr 2025 21:29 Wrote this article for SwarajyaMag:
India’s PPP GDP Growth: Is This The Most Underrated Part Of Its Economic Story?

A refreshing new perspective about India's growth story and what it means in comparative terms, to rest of the world. My question is this.
Should the PPP methodology itself need a revision? Many years ago The Economist used to run what is called the McBurger Index. It would compare prices of McBurger across different countries and arrive at its own PPP factor. But that's hardly a satisfactory parameter given the high percentage of vegetarian population in the country. Is the PPP a World Bank/IMF Index?

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 21 Apr 2025 19:06

Very informative article.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 21 Apr 2025 20:06

The main takeaways of that article are:
- PPP offers a much clearer view of the growth in real purchasing power than nominal per capita, where the movement of exchange rates can add noise.
- it answers the ‘are we growing well compared to peers’ question. We see that India outstripped almost all of Africa, starting to outstrip the lower end of the Americas and will soon overtake the lowest end of Europe.
- Despite all the noise, the current admin is delivering the fastest historical per capita growth and quality of life gains.

A Deshmukh · Post by **A Deshmukh** » 21 Apr 2025 20:39

It would be interesting to see state wise distribution of gdp/per capita.
States like MH, GJ, TN, Del could be on par with western countries.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 21 Apr 2025 21:07

Sikkim and Goa will have developed economy status (nominal) in another 6-8 years. I think the IMF cut-off for nominal is 14500 dollars for developed economies. They are already at 7000-8000 dollars nominal. Next will be HY, TG, next GJ, TN, MH. Bihar will be last. Maybe around 2050. There will be a lot of regional variation. This is why we need smaller states.

While PPP is the correct measure to compare different economies, unfortunately at the high table of rich countries they only look at nominal GDP in dollar terms. There are 2 schools of thought - one that favors a weak currency aiding an export led growth i.e. China model to a certain extent although their currency is fixed and south-east Asian countries,etc and another that follows the US model with a strong currency fueling consumption led growth and exports being restricted to high value items. I belong to the second school due to the large population of India creating a huge domestic market. I think the Indian currency unfortunately got devalued due to shocks like nuclear tests, 2008 financial crisis, 2012 corruption scams, covid, etc. It is not a natural devaluation and perhaps could appreciate within certain limits.

S_Madhukar · Post by **S_Madhukar** » 22 Apr 2025 06:15

Wasn’t the devaluation supposed to reduce after demonetisation? I think we should focus on Chinese style mass production and mechanisation to improve our productivity instead of relying on devaluation… we have a bad habit of copying Britshits socialists and have inherited the same productivity issues. Shamelessly mechanise and train people to operate machines and make in India. Road sweeping like trivial stuff should be mechanised - we need to move away from labour mindset. I was pleasantly surprised to see recently in Mumbai for concrete roads I saw labourers and mechanised equipment in equal number

VKumar · Post by **VKumar** » 22 Apr 2025 20:14

The so called Himalayan Salt is actually mined in pukistan Punjab and has nothing to do with Himalayas .
Even the Indian FSSAI doesn't know this!
We should avoid buying products from pukistan, China, turkey and Azerbaijan. They use our own money to kill our soldiers.

uddu · Post by **uddu** » 24 Apr 2025 11:39

India on track to surpass Japan's GDP, could overtake Germany by 2027: IMF
https://www.indiatoday.in/business/stor ... 2025-03-26

In Short
India to surpass Japan as 4th largest economy by FY25
Economic growth outpaced China, US, Germany
India could become $10 trillion economy by 2032

India is on track to surpass Japan and become the world’s fourth-largest economy by the third quarter of the financial year 2024-25, according to data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The IMF data shows that India, currently the fifth-largest economy, is closing in on Japan, whose GDP stands at $4.4 trillion. While India’s economy has expanded by 105% in the last ten years, Japan’s GDP has remained stagnant.

If India continues on this growth path, it could also surpass Germany, the world’s third-largest economy with a GDP of $4.9 trillion, by the second quarter of 2027.

Yogi_G · Post by **Yogi_G** » 24 Apr 2025 13:35

uddu wrote: ↑24 Apr 2025 11:39

If India continues on this growth path, it could also surpass Germany, the world’s third-largest economy with a GDP of $4.9 trillion, by the second quarter of 2027.

Something's not right here. We are alredy at 4.3 trillion and adding another 600 billion should be less than 18 months at current growth rates which is Q4 2025-2026. Why another two quarters?

uddu · Post by **uddu** » 24 Apr 2025 15:51

https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper ... EO/IND/DEU
They are calculating with 4.19 trillion by year end

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 26 Apr 2025 19:52

One of the benefits of PPP GDP data is also the more single sourced data as opposed to everyone estimating nominal GDP with whatever exchange rate they prefer to apply.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 26 Apr 2025 22:16

So Mossad found out that Gandhi family was co-ordinating with foreign sources to damage Modi & Adani.

The secret of Rahul Gandhi is out in open now.

https://sputniknews.in/20250423/how-mos ... 15558.html

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu personally ordered Mossad to counter a global campaign against Indian billionaire Gautam Adani, sources told Sputnik India.

Israel's spy agency Mossad hacked into the home servers of Sam Pitroda, the head of Indian Overseas Congress (IOC) and the political guru of Congress MP Rahul Gandhi, to look for evidence into the Indian opposition's alleged links to the Hindenburg Research, informed sources have told Sputnik India.

Pitroda is based out of Oakbrook Terrace in the US state of Illinois.

These sources shared that Mossad was "activated" on Adani's case after 24 January, 2023, the day New York-based short-seller accused Adani of pulling off the biggest "con" in India's corporate history, wiping off around $150 billion of the company's assets and triggering India's biggest stock market crash.

The Hindenburg charges against Adani surfaced a week before Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (APSEZ) inked a $1.2 billion deal to acquire controlling stakes in Haifa, Israel's largest port.

Sources said that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, present at the time of the Haifa deal, personally enquired group's chairman Gautam Adani about the Hindenburg charges.

Adani was the only one from his organisation present at the meeting, while Netanyahu was accompanied by several of his aides, including Eshel Armoni, Haifa port's outgoing chairman and an ex-Mossad spy.

“This report... It is a serious threat to your business, isn’t it?” Netantyahu asked Adani at the time, sources revealed.

Adani replied, “Not at all. “It’s all lies.”

"Yes, we realize it is fabricated. But even if you see no threat, we have to be concerned. If it weakens you, it could sabotage not just this port deal but everything we have worked to build with India," the Israeli Prime Minister told the Indian guest.

Netanyahu went to the extent of describing the Hindenburg charges against Adani as an "indirect attack" on Israel, these sources said.

"Israel believes in protecting its friends. We’re going to look into this – very closely," Netanyahu assured Adani. At the time, Adani didn't have any idea that Netanyahu planned to rope in Mossad to counter Hindenburg and its global web of supporters.

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 26 Apr 2025 23:18

Would not take much to get a small operation like Hindenburg to back down.
Need to see the outcome of the US investigation into bribery committed in India. Either its shelved, or informants with knowledge of the matter will go on record in court. Hindenburg shutting down only to be replaced with the monkey of the SEC investigation is a bit too convenient.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 27 Apr 2025 23:47

Back down ? Hindenburg Research went out of business in January.
Short-selling firm Hindenburg Research is closing up shop
January 15, 2025

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 28 Apr 2025 07:01

I took that to mean they decided not to pursue Adani any more. You think they'll be back with more in a different avatar? Anderson's comments on taking 2 years to teach others how to run a similar operation is curious.

VinodTK · Post by **VinodTK** » 01 May 2025 17:06

GST collections in April 2025 hit record high of Rs 2.37 lakh crore; experts say sign of Indian economy's underlying strength

GST collections hit record high! The Goods and Services Tax (GST) revenue reached a record-breaking Rs 2.37 lakh crore in April, showing a 12.6 per cent year-on-year increase, according to official government statistics released on Thursday. This surpassed the previous second-highest collection of Rs 2.10 lakh crore recorded in April 2024, since the implementation of the indirect tax system on July 1, 2017. The collection in March 2025 stood at Rs 1.96 lakh crore.

The GST earnings from domestic transactions increased by 10.7 per cent, amounting to approximately Rs 1.9 lakh crore, whilst revenue from imported goods witnessed a 20.8 per cent growth, reaching Rs 46,913 crore.
The government issued refunds worth Rs 27,341 crore in April, marking a 48.3 per cent increase.

The net GST collection, after accounting for refunds, demonstrated a 9.1 per cent growth, totalling more than Rs 2.09 lakh crore in April.
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VinodTK · Post by **VinodTK** » 02 May 2025 17:13

India’s manufacturing growth hits 10-month high in April on export surge: Report

NEW DELHI: India’s manufacturing sector accelerated to its strongest pace in 10 months in April, fuelled by a surge in export orders and robust output growth, even as firms raised selling prices at the fastest rate in over 11 years, Reuters reported on Friday.
The HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, rose to 58.2 in April from 58.1 in March. Though slightly below the flash estimate of 58.4, the April figure marks the best performance since June 2024.

A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion.Export orders rose at their second-fastest pace in over 14 years, surpassed only by January 2025, as businesses increasingly turned to India amid shifting global trade patterns and fresh US tariff measures. "The notable increase in new export orders in April may indicate a potential shift in production to India, as businesses adapt to the evolving trade landscape and US tariff announcements," said Pranjul Bhandari, chief India economist at HSBC, quoted by Reuters.

The strong export push helped lift overall new orders, which remained close to March’s eight-month high.According to PTI, this included significant demand from regions like Africa, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and the Americas. Consumer goods manufacturers led the growth, posting the fastest output rise among sectors surveyed.

sumsumne · Post by **sumsumne** » 03 May 2025 12:44

https://m.economictimes.com/news/econom ... 843557.cms

India bans all imports from Pakistan including any goods that pass through Pakistani ports

krisna · Post by **krisna** » 03 May 2025 20:03

Indian prime minister Narendra Modi hailed the contribution of the "orange economy" to India's GDP while inaugurating the first-ever WAVES summit in Mumbai. The summit aims to turn India into a global hub for content creation. Palki Sharma tells you how India can turn its soft power into hard power.

All the world focus on Indo pak border but Namo is doing something else.

talking about orange economy etc.

From perpleixty AI

India has produced some of the world’s most successful and wealthy YouTube content creators, with several earning crores (tens of millions) of rupees annually through a mix of ad revenue, brand endorsements, and other ventures. Here are some of the top Indian YouTube creators known for their significant earnings:

Gaurav Chaudhary (Technical Guruji): The richest YouTuber in India, with a net worth estimated at ₹376 crores and over 23 million subscribers. He specializes in tech reviews and related content.

Amit Bhadana: Famous for comedy and vlogging, he has a net worth of around ₹80 crores and more than 24 million subscribers.

CarryMinati (Ajey Nagar): Known for roasting and gaming videos, CarryMinati’s net worth is about ₹50 crores, and he boasts over 45 million subscribers.

Dhruv Rathee: Focused on educational and political content, Rathee’s net worth is estimated at ₹27-30 crores, with over 26 million subscribers.

Mr. Indian Hacker (Dilraj Singh): Known for science experiments and DIY content, his net worth is around ₹16 crores with more than 44 million subscribers.

Kabita’s Kitchen (Kabita Singh): A popular food creator with a net worth of ₹7 crores and over 14 million subscribers.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 04 May 2025 20:19

https://debuglies.com/2025/05/02/the-vi ... itiveness/

Logistics cost reduction is a cornerstone of Vizhinjam’s economic impact. The port’s strategic location, 10 nautical miles from the East-brownfield shipping route, enables a 15% reduction in transit time for vessels, translating to fuel savings of 0.5–0.7 metric tons per hour for a 20,000-TEU vessel, based on 2025 International Maritime Organization (IMO) fuel consumption data. This efficiency reduces operating costs by $1,200–$1,500 per hour at current bunker fuel prices of $600 per metric ton, as reported by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in January 2025. For Indian manufacturers, logistics costs, previously inflated by $80–$100 per container due to foreign transshipment, are expected to decline by 30–40%, equating to savings of $960–$1,200 per TEU for a 12,000-TEU shipment, according to a May 2025 APSEZ statement. These savings are critical for small and medium enterprises (SMEs), which account for 45% of India’s export volume and operate on margins as low as 5–7%, per a 2024 Ministry of Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises report. By lowering costs, Vizhinjam enables SMEs to price exports more competitively, potentially increasing their share in India’s $120 billion textile export market by 2–3% by 2030, as forecasted by the Confederation of Indian Textile Industry.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 06 May 2025 17:24

VinodTK · Post by **VinodTK** » 06 May 2025 17:40

‘Apple to source and produce all iPhones for US in India’: Jyotiraditya Scindia pitches India as a good investment destination

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 15 May 2025 16:32

On India’s credit rating:
https://casi.sas.upenn.edu/iit/sidharth ... ns-bhaskar

It is becoming increasingly difficult to comprehend the reluctance on the part of rating agencies to upgrade India’s credit rating. While India’s debt levels are indeed higher than some peers, but India’s relative economic performance and fiscal discipline over the last two decades merits recognition, making the case for upgrades to its credit rating.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 15 May 2025 16:37

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/indias- ... ns-8372318

India's long-term credit rating has been improved from 'BBB (low)' to 'BBB' by Morningstar DBRS, a global sovereign credit rating agency. The country's credit outlook has been revised to 'Stable' from 'Positive'.

BBB means the country or company is good at paying back debt, but not perfect. They can usually pay their debts, but may struggle in tough times. BBB is a step below BBB+, and two steps below the A rating.

The agency has also raised India's short-term ratings to R-2 (high) from R-2 (middle), citing structural reforms, better fiscal management, and a stronger banking system.

R-2 (high) means the country or company is good at paying back short-term debts and is a safe bet for lenders.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 20 May 2025 17:47

https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage ... ID=2129910
INDEX OF EIGHT CORE INDUSTRIES (BASE: 2011-12=100) FOR APRIL, 2025

The combined Index of Eight Core Industries (ICI) increased by 0.5 per cent (provisional) in April, 2025 as compared to the Index in April, 2024. The production of Cement, Coal, Steel, Electricity and Natural Gas recorded positive growth in April, 2025. The details of annual indices, monthly indices and growth rates are provided at Annex I and Annex II.

The ICI measures the combined and individual performance of production of eight core industries viz. Coal, Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Refinery Products, Fertilizers, Steel, Cement and Electricity. The Eight Core Industries comprise 40.27 percent of the weight of items included in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP).

The final growth rate of Index of Eight Core Industries for January 2025 was observed at 5.1 per cent. The cumulative growth rate of ICI during April to March, 2024-25 is 4.5 per cent (provisional) as compared to the corresponding period of last year.