West Asia News and Discussions

[Klaus]

See how the bulk of the western media is crying foul on how hezbollah's entry in Syria is
going to widen the sectarian divide

The truth is that the West is scared to bits on the prospect of Saladin 2.0 coming to bear on the Middle East, especially one who could be equally devoted to Allah and country.

[shyamd]

19th May 2012

As the stalemate continues - There are 2 possibilities that will tip the balance in the favour of rebels. External or Internal (coup, assad assasination etc). Wait and see which one it is.

Syria: US moves closer to arming rebels

Moves to arm Syria’s opposition have been accelerated in the US following a key defeat for the rebels and a major split in the ranks of al-Qaeda-aligned jihadists, Washington officials indicated.

By Richard Spencer, Middle East Correspondent8:06PM BST 10 Jun 2013

John Kerry, the US secretary of state, postponed a visit to Israel and the Palestinian territories to hold intensive talks with President Barack Obama on the next steps in the Syria crisis.
Officials told American news outlets that the administration was considering not only arming the rebels directly but even imposing a no-fly zone on the Syrian regime of President Bashar al-Assad.
William Hague, the Foreign Secretary, was also being updated, one report said, though the Foreign Office refused to confirm this. At the weekend, Mr Hague said he was prepared to put the issue of Britain supplying the rebels to a vote, following pressure from backbench Tory MPs and the Labour party.
A state department spokesman said Mr Obama would this week consider a "wider range of options".
"Conditions on the ground have worsened. That is frankly concerning," she added.

Western governments, keen to organise a peace conference to bring the war to a close, have been alarmed by a recent collapse in opposition morale.
The Western-backed Syrian National Coalition is in disarray, and at the weekend openly admitted that it could not consider attending a conference while rebel groups were on the back foot.
Last week, regime troops and reinforcements from Hizbollah, the Lebanese Shia militia, roundly defeated rebel resistance in the western town of Qusayr, and are now moving on Aleppo and rebel-held districts of Homs. In response, General Selim Idriss, the head of the SNC's military wing and the most trusted opposition figure in Washington, said he wanted a guarantee of more weapons before he agreed to a peace conference, the date of which has already been pushed back.
"The pace at which the US government appears to be moving towards harder support for the rebels is much faster than has been their recently slackened push to make Geneva happen in the very near future," said Dan Layman, a spokesman for the Syria Support Group, a pro-opposition US-based group.
Officials from the state and defence departments, the CIA and other agencies met yesterday to draw up new options for Mr Obama.
British and American support for the Geneva conference was intended to bring Mr Assad to the negotiating table after a string of rebel gains earlier in the year. Since then, he has reversed the tide and is now in a position where they fear he could resist calls for concessions.
Mr Layman said another motivating factor was a recent split which had seen support drain away from the most radical jihadist group, Jabhat al-Nusra.
It has always been seen as an al-Qaeda affiliate, but large numbers of its members are said to have defected to other groups in the last month, following a takeover attempt by the Iraqi franchise, Islamic State of Iraq.
Many fighters, along with other Islamist groups, objected to the implication that their struggle was wider than the removal of Mr Assad. The main resistance to arming the rebels in both the United States and in Britain comes from those who fear heavy weapons will end up in the hands of al-Qaeda-linked groups, but the US believes it can now much more effectively control the supply, particularly through Gen Idriss.
Ayman al-Zawahiri, the head of al-Qaeda, has moved to end the crisis, cancelling an earlier order for the two neighbouring groups to merge, according to a report on Al-Jazeera.
The group is present on most major battlefronts, and is expected now to play a role in the defence of Aleppo, from which many of its fighters had withdrawn when The Daily Telegraph visited last month. The regime and Hizbollah have both sent troops to prepare for a fresh assault on the rebel-held half of the city.
The jihadists were also condemned by the main opposition group after reports that they executed a 14-year-old boy for blasphemy.

Breaking news today - Yesterdays news on BRF. Consequences of this are pretty big in the region.
1st June 2013

Qatari Emir expected to abdicate at some points due to ill health. He has had double kidney transplant in the 90s

Qatari leaders expected to step down: sources

Talk in Doha is the PM will go first then the Emir a few months down the line. But nothing decided yet.

After Syria, Iraq is next - I said in 2011

Link

Jassim al-Jazairi, a member in the political bureau of Iraq's Hezbollah Brigades, said the fight in Syria was ultimately for the sake of Iraq's Shiites as well.
"We feel that Iraq will be the next target after Syria. The Shiite groups, including our Brigades, are not fighting to defend the shrines only, but also against this Takfiri project in other places in Syria," he said, using a term for extremist Sunnis.

[Mahendra]

Will be khoob mazaa if the Qatari Emir with shia kidneys goes before Assad, that is if Assad goes

[shyamd]

U.S. has 5,000 troops in Jordan for an air defense and disaster relief excercise

The Pentagon totally pinky-swears that this has nothing to do with Syria. It just happens to have sent 5,000 troops to neighboring Jordan to participate in a nine-day air defense, disaster relief and humanitarian assistance exercise, dubbed Eager Lion.

While the Pentagon says this round of the annual exercise -- involving thousands of participants from 19 countries -- has been in the works for years, the timing is awfully convenient. The fighting in Syria has started to spill over that nation's borders into Lebanon and Israel. Meanwhile, Congress is continuing to pressure the White House to do something to aid the Syrian rebels in their fight against the Assad regime who has been helped by a recent influx of fighters from Hezbollah.

Earlier this spring, the Pentagon sent several hundred "headquarters" troops from the 1st Armored Division at Fort Bliss, Texas, to Jordan to assist U.S. and other NATO troops there in trying to figure out how to secure the Assad regime's stockpile of chemical and biological weapons should they fall out of the Syrian government's hands.

These headquarters troops are now joined in the desert by members of the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit, a host of U.S. Navy amphibious warfare ships, Patriot air defense missile batteries -- also from Fort Bliss -- and F-16 fighter jets from the Colorado Air National Guard.

All of these troops are in Jordan to demonstrate the U.S.'s commitment "to the Kingdom of Jordan and regional partners and the combined efforts to sustain regional security and stability," reads a Pentagon press release on the exercise.

"Eager Lion is an excellent example of teamwork that brings together military forces and inter-agency partners from around the world," said Maj. Gen. Robert Catalanotti, Director, USCENTCOM Exercises and Training in the announcement. "This exercise challenges the participants to respond to realistic, modern-day security scenarios by integrating a variety of disciplines in the air, on land and at sea. Our relationship with Jordan and the 19 partner nations involved in the exercise is built on a foundation of interoperability that brings us closer together and enhances regional stability."

So yeah, this exercise is focused on maintaining stability -- just what the war in Syria threatens.

This air defense and humanitarian relief exercise features units that could make life difficult for Assad's air force. The 2,200 Marine-strong 26th MEU, like the six other MEUs in the Marine Corps is basically a self-contained, seagoing crisis response force equipped with everything from an infantry battalion to MV-22 Osprey tilt-rotors and the support staff to back them up. Meanwhile, those F-16s from the Colorado Air Guard's 120th Fighter Squadron specialize in keeping enemy aircraft and missiles on the ground -- during the 2003 invasion of Iraq, the 120th dropped hundreds of smart bombs knocking out Saddam Hussein's ballistic missiles. While the Marines may simply be passing through Jordan, for the exercise that's suppessed to last from June 9 through the 20th, the Patriot missiles and fighters may stick around for a while, providing a hedge against increased aggression by the Syrian government's air force.

As Michael Eisenstadt of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy rmeinds Killer Apps:

"This is the most recent in a series of multinational exercises that started in 2011, and while I believe that a broad range of capabilities are tested during this protracted training exercise, it's hard not to conclude that at least some aspects of the exercise (particular those focusing on humanitarian assistance, chemical warfare mitigation, and missile defense) were written into the script because of ongoing developments in Syria."

Okay just got told by someone that they leaks to arm are to pressure Rus, Iran etc. They won't arm (yet).

[chanakyaa]

a TFTA rebel commander ghazi Ma'an Ahmed Al-Ruz shot by Syrian or Hezb fighters in Qusayr
some professional soldiers would say he deserved to be shot for criminal wastage of ammo, if nothing

What a set of entertaining videos. Thank you for posting. It seems like these bunch of idiots, i.e. freedom fighters, are firing at someone at higher altitude, while fully exposing their bodies. What's up with that. Perfect position to get oneself killed. Looks like they all dropped out of gurilla fighting school. Someone please tell them that firepower is no excuse to not use the brain. AoA chanting is even more hilarious. I guess they are saying freedom fighters Amar Rahe!!

[Austin]

Western country are already arming Syrian rebels covertly for 2 years , so their attempts to say that they would start arming rebels is more like PR thing when every body knows what is happening.

Rus too said that they would start arming SAA if West start doing that overtly. Pretty much the case of if you do i will do the same.

The only reason why West would be hesitant to overtly arm the rebels because even if these rebels are vetted for arms eventually they will eventually flow into AL Queeda groups and after all this ends they will end up knocking the door of the west.

[Lalmohan]

I wonder whats with hysterical allah hu akbar shouting when their man got shot?

celebrating his martyrdom? may as well have shot him themselves...

[Austin]

AOA ( Allah is the Greatest ) is pretty much standard now they shout for every thing from martyrdom to launching of BM by Paki ...

[ramana]

In cooking shows on Pak TV they exclaim Inshallah for every little thing like chopping onions, baking cakes and frying kheema!!!

[shyamd]

@timesofindia: Vladimir Putin says Assad could have avoided war, criticizes West - The Times of India http://t.co/HL8jlUOkeq

Putin knows it too.

France says Syrian war at 'turning point', mulls arming rebels http://t.co/byuOm5ysDL via @Reuters

[Austin]

Putin warns against foreign intervention in Syria

Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that any foreign intervention in the Syrian conflict aimed at toppling its regime could potentially stoke a tribal war over the country’s natural resources that would turn it into a new “terror hotspot.”

President Putin gave an interview to the Russia Today TV channel on Tuesday where he once again cautioned the West against invading Syria. He cited Libya and its ousted leader Muammar Gaddafi as an example of such ill-conceived approach, saying: “They had the highest living standard in the whole region. Tell me what’s going on there now? A war for resources. An everlasting tribal strife. No one knows what it’ll all lead to."

“We fear that a similar scenario in Syria will yield the same results. Isn’t it enough to have a grey zone between Afghanistan and Pakistan, where there is no law, only militant camps? Is that what we want? And that zone is close to our borders. So, yes, we are concerned,” the president said.

Putin went into length explaining Russia’s staunch stance on the Syrian conflict, despite its reluctance to get in between numerous Islamic movements.

“Look at what the region is going through. Egypt is still shaking. Iraq is far from being an isle of calm and it doesn’t look like it’s going to calm down any time soon or retain its territorial integrity. Yemen is gripped in unrest, so is Tunisia, while Libya is in the middle of a sectarian war,” the president pointed out, adding the whole region was ravaged by conflicts. “Do we want to add Syria to the mix?”

Putin lambasted the “cookie-cutter approach” certain countries display towards Syria and stressed that turning the region into a bunch of defunct democracies will never guarantee “peace and quiet” in the Arab world.

“You mustn’t meddle with a region without taking into account its history, traditions and religion,” he pointed out.

[Philip]

Many years ago I posted details about the scores of western companies who armed Saddam with material for his WMD programmes,including chem weapons,which he used against the Kurds and was condemned for it,one of the reasons for invading Iraq.That was when he was being encouraged to fight Iran and was a key western ally. It was only when he beagan building the supergun that could threaten Israel,and started showing signs of an independent foreign policy,that the US in particular pulled the plug.Now we have it from the Kurds themselves that the French were the culprits!

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 52857.html
Kurds who suffered Saddam Hussein chemical weapons attack accuse French suppliers

Twenty survivors of Saddam Hussein’s deadly 1988 chemical weapons attack on the Kurdish town of Halabja have requested a judicial investigation of French suppliers, saying executives knew what they were sending to the Iraqi dictator.

Saddam ordered the poison gas strikes to crush a Kurdish rebellion, which was seen as aiding Iran in the final months of its war with Iraq; 5,000 people died.

Gavriel Mairone, a lawyer for the group that filed the complaint in France, said those who survived continue to suffer health problems and are demanding the weapons’ suppliers take responsibility.

Now the Kurds wait for the spillover.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 00079.html
Syria's Kurds flock to Iraq to prepare for Assad's onslaught
Secret training camps are revealed as Turkish forces open fire again

In secret training camps in the mountains and plains of northern Iraq, Kurdish Syrian army defectors are being drilled to protect the oil-rich areas in the north-east of their home country, which have so far managed to avoid being dragged into the civil war. Hundreds of Syrian Kurds are training with Iraq's Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) Peshmerga forces, and there are plans to send the men back to protect the Kurdish regions of Syria should clashes break out in those areas with the government or the rebel Free Syrian Army (FSA).

"It's defence training in order for these people to defend their own communities … not for offensive purposes to go and attack," Falah Mustafa Bakir, the KRG's minister for foreign relations, told The Independent.

Syria's 1.7 million Kurds have largely taken a back seat in the 18-month struggle to oust President Bashar al-Assad, despite being one of the traditional bastions of opposition to his rule. After clashes in July, Syrian army forces pulled back from many of the region's towns and cities, leaving the Kurds free to begin building their own institutions such as police forces and local councils.

Mr Bakir said the Syrian Kurds should learn from the experience of the Iraqis, who gained de facto autonomy in 1991 after a no-fly zone was established in the north of the country and Saddam Hussein's forces pulled out of the area.

"There is a lot they can use for homework before the collapse of the regime," he said.

However, there are fears that it is only a matter of time before the chaos that has enveloped much of the country reaches Syria's Kurdish areas, particularly given that the Al-Hassaka province in which they are concentrated produces most of the country's oil.

The inevitable spillover has already begun. Oil pipelines have been attacked and last Sunday a bomb in a cement truck detonated outside a government building in Al-Hassaka's regional capital of Qamishli, killing four people.

Local Kurdish politicians speculate that the attack – the biggest blast in the city so far – was the work of an outside group.

In the canvas tents of Iraq's Domiz refugee camp, which now house around 25,000 Syrian Kurds, Abu Ali, a burly 28-year-old who works in camp security, says dozens of his friends are now in military training with the KRG.

"They are paid a small allowance by the KRG, but I don't know a lot about what they are doing there," he says, explaining that while they are in training the recruits are not allowed to make calls or leave the camps.

However, plans to return the trained soldiers to Syria appear to have been delayed by political infighting between Kurdish factions over the border. In July, the KRG president, Massoud Barzani, called the fractious Syrian Kurdish parties to Erbil to sign a power-sharing agreement.

Despite the agreement, opposition groups complain that Syria's Kurdish regions are being held within the tight grip of the Democratic Union Party (PYD), a group with close links to the Kurdish Workers' Party, which is fighting a separatist insurgency against the Turkish government and has been designated a terrorist group by the US and the EU.

Mustafa Juma, the secretary general of the Syrian Kurdish Azadi Party, claims the PYD has been blocking the return of the Iraqi-trained men because "they want to control the region alone".

The PYD denies having any armed elements. However, the new police forces which are springing up manned by armed volunteers are under their control.

In the desolate scrubland on the Syrian border, checkpoints on the Syrian side, once manned by the Assad regime, are now in the control of a new Kurdish armed group, the Popular Protection Units, known by its Kurdish acronym YPG. It is a secretive organisation, whose members refuse to speak to the press. And although they claim to be independent, they appear to be aligned with the PYD. Local politicians say they number somewhere around 1,000 men.

"The experience for us, the Kurdish history ... was that always the Kurdish people were soldiers for the others, so we decided to be soldiers for ourselves, for the Kurdish people only," said Saleh Muslim Mohammed, the PYD leader. "If somebody attacks us we will defend ourselves."

[Raja Bose]

In cooking shows on Pak TV they exclaim Inshallah for every little thing like chopping onions, baking cakes and frying kheema!!!

...even while breaking wind?

[Kati]

Why is this about turn from ABC? Usually, ABC is the mouthpiece of the Uncle Sam'
s 51st state situated in ME.

"Why you can't trust the western media about Syria"
http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/pro ... ia/4746936

[Lalmohan]

In cooking shows on Pak TV they exclaim Inshallah for every little thing like chopping onions, baking cakes and frying kheema!!!

...even while breaking wind?

mashallah would be more appropriate?

[ramana]

Thats a good one since all they cook is mash!!!

Maybe Mushullah is even more appropriate.

[KLNMurthy]

come on - you might as well have mentioned it was Krauthammer and saved us a click

He is as deranged as McCain is. He still thinks Iraq was a great victory -

It is shocking that krauthammer, himself a Jew, doesn't see the FSA for the Jew-haters that they are.

[Brando]

YOGA AT TAKSIM: People practise yoga in Gezi Park at Taksim Square in Istanbul on Friday. REUTERS

Bah, even Islamic turkey accepts Hindooos yoga, but our sickular brigade cry hoarse when we introduce surya-namaskar or Saraswathi Vandan.

Difference between Turkey and India is that the Indian Muslims know and recognize the "Hindu" (aka Kuffar) aspects of Yoga, what "Surya Namaskar" means while these Turks are just aping the Euros and the Americans in their Yoga "fad" and are ignorant as to its "Hindu" roots and the connotations just like the Euros and the Americans.

Of course the turks, especially the youth are much more tolerant and confident about their identity than our Indian Muslims who compete with each for being more "Islamic" than their neighbors.

[habal]

what proportion of turks are alawites. I am hearing anywhere from 10% to 40% figure being thrown around. If so, isn't it significant reason for lack of success of sunni radicalism in turkey. Surely all Sunnis are equally radicalized whether in Bosnia, Botswana, Turkey, Saudi Arabia or Sri Lanka, so it is the percentage of 'others' that make the vital difference.

[Sanku]

93000 people killed in Syrian conflict: United Nations

The United Nations says almost 93,000 people have been confirmed killed in the Syrian conflict, but the real number is likely to be far higher.

The U.N. human rights office says it has confirmed the killing of 92,901 people between March 2011 and the end of April 2013.

The U.N.'s top human rights official, Navi Pillay, said Thursday that more than 5,000 killings have been documented every month since last July.

[Kati]

60 Shias massacred by Sunni foreign terrorists

http://www.tehrantimes.com/middle-east/ ... s-in-syria

[shyamd]

Syria has used chemical weapons against rebels, U.S. and European officials conclude - NYTimes

U.S. Military Plan Sees No-Fly Zone in Syria

WASHINGTON—A U.S. military proposal for arming Syrian rebels also calls for a limited no-fly zone inside Syria that would be enforced from Jordanian territory to protect Syrian refugees and rebels who would train there, according to U.S. officials.

Asked by the White House to develop options for Syria, military planners have said that creating an area to train and equip rebel forces would require keeping Syrian aircraft well away from the Jordanian border.

To do that, the military envisages creating a no-fly zone stretching up to 25 miles into Syria which would be enforced using aircraft flown from Jordanian bases and flying inside the kingdom, according to U.S. officials.

WASHINGTON—A U.S. military proposal for arming Syrian rebels also calls for a limited no-fly zone inside Syria that would be enforced from Jordanian territory to protect Syrian refugees and rebels who would train there, according to U.S. officials.

Asked by the White House to develop options for Syria, military planners have said that creating an area to train and equip rebel forces would require keeping Syrian aircraft well away from the Jordanian border.

To do that, the military envisages creating a no-fly zone stretching up to 25 miles into Syria which would be enforced using aircraft flown from Jordanian bases and flying inside the kingdom, according to U.S. officials.

The White House is currently considering proposals to arm the rebels in Jordan, according to U.S. officials. White House National Security Council spokeswoman Caitlin Hayden declined to comment on the details of those deliberations.

The limited no-fly zone wouldn’t require the destruction of Syrian antiaircraft batteries, U.S. officials said.

Officials said the White House could decide to authorize the U.S. to arm and train rebels in Jordan without authorizing the no-fly zone recommended by military planners. A White House announcement could come soon, officials said.

Jordan has been inundated by a flood of refugees that Jordanian and U.S. officials say is a growing threat to the kingdom, a key U.S. ally in the region. The U.S. has already moved Patriot air defense batteries and F-16 fighter planes to Jordan, which could be integral to any no-fly zone if President Barack Obama approves the military proposal.

Proponents of the proposal say a no-fly zone could be imposed without a U.N. Security Council resolution, since the U.S. would not regularly enter Syrian airspace and wouldn’t hold Syrian territory.

U.S. planes have air-to-air missiles that could destroy Syrian planes from long ranges. But officials said that aircraft may be required to enter Syrian air space if threatened by advancing Syrian planes. Such an incursion by the U.S., if it were to happen, could be justified as self-defense, officials say.

Military planners believe it would be dangerous to set up a major operation inside Jordan to arm the rebels without creating a no-fly zone to hold Syrian aircraft back.

“Unless you have a good buffer zone inside Syria, you risk too much,” said a U.S. official briefed on the military proposal.

Creating even a limited buffer zone that Syrian airplanes cannot enter will be expensive, costing an estimated $50 million a day. Still, officials say that a full no-fly zone covering all of Syria would cost far more money. Officials said the U.S. hopes the operation would be conducted with other allies, who could help pay for the cost of a no-fly zone.

The U.S. planes involved in the no-fly zone would fly from Jordan and possibly from Navy ships in the Mediterranean or Red Sea. Jordan has offered the U.S. and its allies the use of its military bases to protect a safe zone inside the kingdom, according to U.S. officials. Jordanian officials in Washington had no immediate comment.

U.S. military officials believe it will take about a month to get such a limited no fly zone up and running, officials say. Officials say there may be a limited window to do so. If Russia decides to provide advanced, long-range S-300 air defense weapons to Syria, it would make such a limited no-fly zone far more risky for U.S. pilots.

Important news conference re: Syria in the next 5 mins. Switch on your TVs

The United States will keep F-16 fighter jets and Patriot anti-missile weapons in Jordan after a joint military exercise ends this month, amid concerns over the raging civil war in neighboring Syria, a U.S. defense official said Thursday.
The U.S. administration, which is weighing a decision to arm Syria’s rebels, also planned to keep a unit of U.S. Marines on amphibious ships off the coast after consultations with Jordan’s leadership, the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told AFP.

Syria Has Used Chemical Arms on Rebels, U.S. and Allies Find

By MARK MAZZETTI, MICHAEL R. GORDON and MARK LANDLER
WASHINGTON — American and European intelligence analysts now believe that President Bashar al-Assad’s troops have used chemical weapons against rebel forces in the civil war in Syria, an assessment that will put added pressure on a deeply divided Obama administration to develop a response to a provocation that the president himself has declared a “red line.”

According to an internal memorandum circulating inside the government on Thursday, the “intelligence community assesses that the Assad regime has used chemical weapons on a small scale against the opposition multiple times in the last year.” President Obama said in April that the United States had physiological evidence that the nerve gas sarin had been used in Syria, but lacked proof of who used it and under what circumstances. He now believes that the proof is definitive, according to American officials.

But a flurry of high-level meetings in Washington this week only underscored the splits within the Obama administration about what actions to take to quell the fighting, which has claimed more than 90,000 people. The meetings were hastily arranged after Mr. Assad’s troops — joined by fighters from the militant group Hezbollah — claimed the strategic city of Qusayr and raised fears in Washington that large parts of the rebellion could be on the verge of collapse.

Senior State Department officials have been pushing for an aggressive military response, including airstrikes to hit the primary landing strips in Syria that the government uses to launch the chemical weapons attacks, ferry troops around the country, and receive shipments of matériel from Iran. But White House officials remain wary, and one American official said that a meeting on Wednesday of the president’s senior advisers yielded no firm decisions about how to proceed.

It is unclear precisely how the Obama administration made its final determination about the chemical weapons use in Syria. According to the internal memorandum, intelligence agencies have “high confidence” in their assessment, and estimate that between 100 and 150 people have died to date from chemical weapons attacks. The memorandum goes on to say that the conclusion is based on a variety of intelligence.

“Our intelligence community has high confidence in that assessment given multiple, independent streams of information,” the memorandum said.

The Obama administration’s cautious approach about Syria has already frayed relations with important American allies in the Middle East that have privately described the White House strategy as feckless. Saudi Arabia and Jordan recently cut the United States out of a new rebel training program, a decision that American officials said came from the belief in Riyadh and Amman that the United States has only a tepid commitment to supporting rebel groups.

Moreover, the United Arab Emirates declined to host a meeting of allied defense officials to discuss Syria, concerned that in the absence of strong American leadership the conference might degenerate into bickering and finger pointing among various gulf nations with different views on the best ways to support the rebellion.

Adding to those voices was former President Bill Clinton, who earlier this week endorsed a more robust American intervention in Syria to help the rebels, aligning himself with hawks like Senator John McCain, who fault Mr. Obama for his reluctance to get entangled in the bloody civil war there.

Speaking on Tuesday at a private session in New York with Mr. McCain, Mr. Clinton said, “Sometimes it’s best to get caught trying, as long as you don’t overcommit.”

“Some people say, ‘O.K., see what a big mess this is? Stay out!'” Mr. Clinton said. “I think that’s a big mistake. I agree with you about this,” he added, gesturing to Mr. McCain, who has called for supplying the rebels with weapons and conducting airstrikes.

The White House press secretary, Jay Carney, pushed back on Mr. Clinton’s comments, saying, “The president makes a decision about the implementation of national security options based on our national security interests, not on what might satisfy critics at any given moment about a policy.”

The conclusion by American intelligence agencies strengthens their assessment earlier this year and poses an important test for the White House.

Mr. Obama had repeatedly said the use of chemical weapons by Syrian forces would a cross a red line, but he has not indicated what action he would take in response.

In an April letter to Congress, the White House said that intelligence agencies had “varying degrees of confidence.”

But the conclusion of the latest intelligence review is much stronger and is based on evidence that includes reporting on planning by the regime for the use of chemical weapons, accounts of specific attacks and descriptions of physiological symptoms.

The draft statement notes there is no reason to think the resistance has access to chemical weapons.

“We believe that the Assad regime maintains control of these weapons, and has taken steps to secure these weapons from theft or attack,” it states. “We have no reliable, corroborated reported to indication that the opposition has acquired or used chemical weapons.”

According to a C.I.A. report, which was described by an American official who declined to be identified, the United States has acquired blood, urine and hair samples from two Syrian rebels — one dead, and one wounded — who were involved in a firefight with Syrian government forces in mid-March near the town of Utubya, northeast of Damascus.

The samples showed that the rebels were exposed to sarin and supports the conclusion that the regime has used the weapon.

In recent days, the British and French government have also asserted that there is evidence that the Assad regime has used chemical weapons.

BRF KNEW BEFORE OBAMA DID!

19th May

Sarin was indeed used - mixed with tear gas type gas according to UK defence & science lab. Iran encouraged the Syrian regime to use it.

US TO Provide military support to REBELS: White House

No decision on NFZ. But clearly they are preparing... They'll seize the CW before I think

CONFIRMED: French-Saudi arming effort now taking place along Turkish-Syrian border this has led to temporary shutdown of all border points

[Agnimitra]

U.S. Stepping Up 'Military Support' to Syrian Rebels

[chanakyaa]

Interesting to note that firm positions are being taken ONLEE after getting a nod from the next Shooper Pawar, China. Now, it is clear the reason for the visit of Chinese premier last week. China is now officially inner circle, Indics are not. Lion convinced tigers and hyenas that it is in their best interest to get together. In exchange, hyena will get a better share instead of waiting for the leftover after Lion and Tiger are finished. Question is what has China asked in return?

1. Not to meddle in south china sea
2. Leave the China to do Shooper Pawargiri in the East
3. Share energy and other natural resources
4. Enjoy together the bounty of the growth in consumerism in India
5. Try best to keep Sonia and thugs in power in India in the next elections

[ramana]

Can Assad's Syria Survive Revolution?

by Eyal Zisser
Middle East Quarterly
Spring 2013, pp. 65-71 (view PDF)

http://www.meforum.org/3529/assad-syria-revolution
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Be the first of your friends to like this.

The outbreak of the Syrian revolution in March 2011 surprised many people. Until that time, it seemed that the 40-year reign of the Assad dynasty, at first under its founder, Hafiz, and then under his son and heir, Bashar, had succeeded in turning Syria into a strong and stable state with governmental institutions, military, and security forces. Even social and economic systems appeared quite sturdy and effective.

Yet a year and a half of bloody fighting between the regime and the rebels has undermined most of the achievements of the Assad dynasty and turned Syria into a failing state on the verge of disintegration. Most state institutions have ceased to function. The bonds that united the various religious and ethnic communities, tribes, and regions—that took many long years of hard work to forge—are rapidly unraveling. In addition, Syria has become a kind of punching bag with foreign actors, both regional and international, intervening freely in the country's internal affairs.

How did the revolt spread so quickly to all parts of Syria, striking such deep roots among wide segments of the Syrian society? How has the Assad regime managed, for the time being and in contrast to other Arab regimes rocked by the recent upheavals, to survive the lethal challenges facing it? And how has it been able to maintain its cohesion and strength to the point where many observers do not preclude the possibility of its ultimate survival?
The Outbreak of the Syrian Revolution

The revolution in Syria, in contrast to the uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Yemen, was at its base a peasants' revolt, a protest by the Sunni periphery against what was perceived as the Baath regime's turning its back on the country's rural population. Only later did the rebellion take on additional dimensions with jihadists joining the struggle because of the regime's "heretical" Alawite nature and because of its alliance with Shiite Iran and Hezbollah. In the name of jihad, thousands of volunteers have streamed into Syria from all over the Arab and Muslim world[1] though jihadist slogans probably did little to arouse Syrians to join the ranks of the revolution.

Revenge was another dimension that developed with time, stemming from the regime's increasingly violent efforts to suppress the waves of protest. It is clear that the regime's brutality served to expand the circle of participants in the revolution. Many who joined were motivated specifically by the desire to take revenge for the spilled blood of their family members and relatives or for the destruction of their home villages and towns by the regime's forces.[2]

Bombed-out buildings in Aleppo, October 3, 2012, show the devastation perpetrated on civilians. The Assad regime's brutal response to the revolt has only widened the circle of rebellion. Many who have joined the fighting are motivated by the desire to take revenge for the spilled blood of their relatives or the destruction of their homes and communities.

Paradoxically, in the past, the Sunni rural population had been one of the regime's foremost mainstays. It was one of the main partners in Syria's ruling coalition of minorities and the periphery, led by members of the Alawite community, who were in turn headed by the Assad dynasty. This coalition served as the basis for the Baath revolution of March 1963, and later as the basis of support for the "Corrective Movement" and for Hafiz al-Assad's seizure of power in November 1970.

With the passage of time and especially from the beginning of the 2000s, it seemed as if the Syrian regime had ceased reflecting Syrian society. The regime even seemed to have turned its back on the rural areas and the periphery. Beginning in 2006, Syria experienced one of the worst droughts the state had ever known with the damage felt most intensely in the Jazira region of northeastern Syria and in the south, especially in the Hawran region and its central city of Dar'a.

These regions were also adversely affected by the government's new economic policies, which aimed at changing the character of the Syrian economy from a socialist orientation into a "social market economy." The aim of these policies, led by Vice Prime Minister Abdullah Dardari, was to open Syria to the world economy, encourage foreign investment, and promote activity in the domestic private sector so as to ensure economic growth and enable the regime to cope with its domestic and economic challenges: rapid growth of the population, backward infrastructure and lack of advanced industry, over-reliance on agriculture, etc. The new policy was backed by Bashar al-Assad, who seemed to have underestimated the importance of the Baath party's socialist ideology as well as its institutions and networking, mainly in the periphery. One conclusion to be drawn from the negative reactions to this policy in the periphery was that while the Syrian regime did indeed manage to preserve its image of strength and solidity during the first decade of the 2000s, its support base was considerably narrowed. It lost the broad popular support that it had enjoyed among the Sunni population in the rural areas and the periphery after it turned its back on them.[3]

And so, from the time the revolution broke out in March 2011 in the city of Dar'a, the rebellion spread like wildfire to all the rural areas and the periphery, including the northern part of the state, the Jazira region, and later, the agricultural towns of Homs and Hama. The revolution reached the large cities, Damascus and Aleppo, only at a much later stage.
The Tlas Family and the Town of Rastan

An illustration of this turmoil can be found in the story of the Tlas family from the small town of Rastan. Headed by Mustafa Tlas, the family was one of the pillars of the Baath regime, a living example of the close alliance between the regime and the Sunni periphery on the one hand, and between the Sunni and the Alawite officers led by the Assad dynasty on the other.

Rastan itself is the third largest town in the Homs district and numbers about 40,000 inhabitants according to a 2004 census. It is located on the main road between Aleppo and Damascus, on the segment between the towns of Homs and Hama, about 20 kilometers from Homs and 22 kilometers from Hama. Rastan's residents earn their livings from agriculture and light industry, notably the rock quarries for which the town is known.[4]

The town has two main clans, the Hamdan, the larger and stronger of the two, and the Firzat. The Tlas family belongs to the Hamdan clan. One of the family's members, Abdel Qadr Tlas, served as the mukhtar (administrative head) of Rastan from the end of the Ottoman period into the French Mandate period. As a young man, Mustafa Tlas, Abdel Qadr's son, became the ally and right hand man of Hafiz al-Assad. The two met at the Homs Military Academy, during the officers' course in which they were enrolled after joining the Syrian army in November 1952. They were roommates during the course, and their paths never parted thereafter. They advanced in rank together and, in November 1970, seized power in Damascus with Hafiz leading and Mustafa helping him. At that time, Tlas was serving as commander in chief of the army and was quickly appointed minister of defense, a post he held until his retirement in 2004.

Tlas was in office during the brutal suppression of the Islamist revolt against the Baath regime in 1976-82, which peaked with the massacre of the citizens of Hama in February 1982. His last task was, in essence, to help Assad's son Bashar grow into his father's big shoes.[5]

Tlas also established an economic empire. One of its showcases was a publishing house. He used this firm as a vehicle for publishing, in addition to works of other authors, his own "scholarly" writings, memoirs, and even poetry. Tlas married Lamya Jabiri, a member of the Aleppine aristocracy, and the couple had four children: two daughters—Nahid, who married a Saudi businessman and moved with him to Paris, and Sarya—and two sons—Firas, who became a successful businessman in Damascus, and Manaf, who chose a military career. Manaf was known as a close friend of Bashar al-Assad and served as a brigade commander in the Republican Guard Division, an elite unit formed to protect the regime.[6]
Rastan and the Start of the Revolt

In addition to being home to the Tlas family, Rastan also serves as a faithful reflection of the Sunni periphery. It is not surprising that when the Syrian revolution broke out, the town became one of the revolt's focal points. As early as the beginning of April 2011, the town square statue of Hafiz al-Assad was reportedly smashed to pieces as demonstrators shouted with joy.[7] This was a symbolic act clearly expressing the town's disengagement from the Baath regime and from the Assad dynasty. However, Rastan is too strategically located to be given up. Since it is on a main road linking northern and southern Syria and close to the towns of Homs and Hama, it became a major scene of bloody battles between the regime's army and the insurgents, in which scores of the town's residents were killed.

The protest movement in Rastan did not bypass the Tlas family. The members of the family who were officers and soldiers, like many of their friends and colleagues, could not ignore the pressure of the unfolding events or the fate suffered by their relatives, neighbors, and home town.

The first Tlas family member to join the revolt was Abd al-Razzaq Tlas, who announced his desertion from the regular Syrian army as early as June 2011. He has subsequently served as commander of the Faruq battalion associated with the Free Syrian Army, which operates in the region of Homs. As time passed, Abd al-Razzaq has become one of the closely watched symbols of the revolution. Thus, for example, innumerable interpretations were given to the fact that he has begun to grow a beard though this action did not necessarily stem from religious motives. His image was not damaged even after rumors were spread about his involvement in a sex scandal though he was apparently removed from his position as battalion commander.[8] Additional members of the Tlas family followed him into the revolution until finally, in the summer of 2012, the reverberations reached the home of Mustafa Tlas. This was quite late in the game and only after it began to seem as if the days of the Assad regime were numbered.

During the first months of 2012, Mustafa Tlas, suffering from health problems, moved to Paris to be near his daughter Nihad. His son Firas soon followed and established contacts with opposition figures and began participating in resistance events abroad.[9] At the beginning of July 2012, Manaf announced his defection from the ranks of the regime. In an interview with al-Arabiya news network, he explained, "I do not see myself as a senior figure in the ranks of the regime but rather as one of the sons of the Syrian Arab army who opposes barbarism and murder of innocents and the corrupt government ... I hope for the establishment of a united Syria and for its rebuilding as a state that does not believe in or promote revenge, discrimination, or selfishness."[10] Immediately after Manaf's defection, several opposition figures began to mention him as a possible leader of Syria after Bashar's hoped-for fall. Other opposition figures, however, came out firmly against the idea.[11]

The steps taken by those members of the Tlas family serve as a graphic example of what was happening all over Syria during the past year and a half. They are good indicators of how people who had been strong supporters of the Assad regime turned their backs on it when they felt that it had betrayed them or no longer served their interests.
The Survival of the Regime

Every coin and almost every story has two sides, and so it is with the story of Syria. One side of the story has to do with the fact that the insurgents' uprising spread quickly and struck deep roots. The other side of the story has to do with the regime and the undeniable fact that it has so far been able to survive. One explanation for this focuses on the built-in weaknesses of the opposition,[12] which is a faithful reflection of the Syrian society: Both opposition and society suffer from divisions and fragmentation based upon ethnic, religious, regional, socioeconomic, and other differences. Another explanation focuses on the international community's lack of will or ability to intervene in Syria. A third explanation highlights the sources of the regime's strengths, calling attention to the fact that the regime survives, not only because of its opponents' weaknesses, but also because of the reserves of power at its disposal.

One source of the regime's strength lies in the support it receives from the members of the minority communities, who serve as its social bases. These include the Alawites (12 percent of the population), the Druze (5 percent), and most of the Christians (13 percent). The Kurds (10 percent), including those who live in the regions bordering Turkey and Iraq, have for the most part, not turned against the government either. Many Kurds have exploited the revolution to throw off government control and advance the cause of partial Kurdish independence. Nevertheless, the Syrian Kurds as a whole have refrained from joining the ranks of the opposition or coming out openly against the Assad regime.

Another source of regime strength lies in the fact that while turmoil has come to the suburbs and the slums of Aleppo and Damascus, the revolution has not ignited among urban Syrians, including the Sunni bourgeoisie of the big cities. Most big city residents have chosen to remain on the sidelines and not support the protests, fearing that this leap would result in political instability, as happened in Iraq or Lebanon, at immense costs.

Part of the reluctance stems from the economic benefits the urban bourgeoisie enjoy, especially during recent years thanks to the regime's economic policies. Some have to do with the bourgeoisie's age-old resentments, reservations, and aversion toward the periphery and the rural regions and their inhabitants. The numbers of urban dwellers are considerable. Some 55.7 percent of Syrians live in cities. Around 8 million (out of the total population of 23 million) live in the country's three large cities: Aleppo—2.98 million; Damascus—2.52 million; and Homs—1.27 million. Most of the Christians live in these three cities.[13]

Since most opposition activists come from rural areas, most incursions into the big cities, including Damascus, Aleppo, and Homs, have been carried out by insurgents from nearby rural regions. They penetrate the big cities mostly through the slum neighborhoods and suburbs, which are often inhabited by recent migrants from the periphery and rural areas. These migrants generally maintain connections with relatives back home, and it is from there that the armed bands come. But because the bourgeoisie of Damascus and Aleppo have refrained from joining the insurgents,[14] the Syrian opposition has been denied victory photos such as those from Cairo's Tahrir Square, which made it clear that the die had been cast in Egypt and that the youth were on the revolution's side. In Syria, for the time being, the youth in the big cities prefer to remain shut up in their homes.

Another source of the regime's strength lies in the loyalty of its institutions, in particular, the army, the security apparatuses, the state bureaucracy, and the Baath party apparatuses. Indeed, in many cases, using the party's networks, the regime was able to recruit and mobilize local families in various areas, including Sunni neighborhoods, which have become local militias fighting for the regime. These include members of the Sunni community in particular with the emphasis on the Sunni periphery.
Loyalists in Rastan

Returning to Rastan, it is clearly not a big city but of the rebel periphery. But it is also undisputable that many of its residents remain loyal to the regime. In the Tlas family, some have joined the ranks of the rebels, but others maintain neutrality, and still others continue to work for the government. Thus, Talal Tlas serves as Syria's deputy minister of defense and Ahmad Tlas serves as the commander of the First Corps, the most important military unit in southern Syria.[15] And the various branches of the Tlas family continue to live together in Rastan; battles in the town take place between rebels and army forces that come from outside in order to attack.[16]

Beside these two senior Tlas members, there are others still serving loyally as army officers, perhaps because they consider this to be in their best personal interest and a good way to advance their careers. Their position is quite different from that of the younger officers, like Abd al-Razzaq Tlas, who has his whole future before him. Joining the ranks of the revolution promises him a brilliant future should it succeed. In any case, as a young officer, he did not have nearly as many vested interests to leave behind and potentially lose. The situation of the senior and middle level officers is much different. They could lose everything, all their achievements, their ranks, pensions, possibilities for further advancement, and other benefits and privileges. Joining the revolution means sacrifice for a vague future full of unknowns. The revolutionary future holds out the promise of great rewards for the youth, but not necessarily for the symbols of the old regime.

It is clear that as long as the members of the Tlas family and people like them give the regime their support, it will be able to survive. Only about 10 percent of the army's manpower has defected. The other 90 percent, both soldiers and officers, the great majority of whom come from the Sunni periphery, continues to stand united around the regime, giving it the breathing space it so desperately needs.
Conclusions

The story of the Tlas family and their town, Rastan, attests to the complexity of the Syrian picture. The regime is losing blood daily; little by little support for it diminishes. Since the eruption of the revolution, the trend has clearly been in one direction only. Nevertheless, the regime retains reserves of support that enable it to survive. A dramatic shift in the situation, such as Bashar's assassination or an unexpected intervention by the international community, could give the insurgents the push they need and bring about a major change in the course of the conflict. But the example of the Tlas family and Rastan suggests that the struggle for Syria will still take a long time to unfold.

Eyal Zisser is dean of the faculty of humanities and the Yona and Dina Ettinger Chair of Contemporary Middle Eastern History at Tel Aviv University.

[1] The New York Times, Oct. 14, 2012; Al-Monitor, online news, Oct. 18, 2012.
[2] Fouad Ajami, The Syrian Rebellion (Stanford: Stanford University, 2012), pp. 69-156.
[3] Eyal Zisser, "The Renewal of the 'Struggle for Syria': The Rise and Fall of the Ba'th Party," Sharqiya, Fall 2011, pp. 21-9; Hanna Batatu, Syria's Peasantry: The Descendants of Its Lesser Rural Notables and Their Politics (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1999), pp. 131-75. For economic data, "Syria—Country Report," Economist Intelligence Unit, Apr. 2011.
[4] The Annual Report for 2004, Central Bureau of Statistics, Prime Minister's Office, Syrian Arab Republic, Damascus; "Syria: Mining," Encyclopedia of the Nations, accessed Dec. 7, 2012.
[5] Mustafa Tlas, Mira't Hayati (Damascus: Dar Tlas lil-Nashr, 1995), vol. 1, pp. 240-310; Sami Moubayed, Steel and Silk, Men and Women Who Shaped Syria, 1900-2000 (Seattle: Cune Press, 2006), pp. 89, 255.
[6] Al-Hayat (London), July 12, 2012; al-Jazeera TV (Doha), July 14, 2012.
[7] Asharq al-Awsat (London), Apr. 7, 2011; al-Arabiya TV (Dubai), Apr. 6, 7, 2011.
[8] Reuters, June 6, 7, 2011; al-Jazeera TV, June 6, 2011; BBC Radio in Arabic, Feb. 12, 2012; Aron Lund, "Holy Warriors: A Field Guide to Syria's Jihadi Groups," Foreign Policy, Oct. 15, 2012.
[9] Al-Quds al-Arabi (London), June 28, 2012; al-Jazeera TV, July 1, 2012.
[10] Reuters, July 14, 2012; al-Arabiya TV, July 24, 2012.
[11] Al-Hayat, July 19, 24, 2012.
[12] See, for example, BBC News, Nov. 12, 2012; Itamar Rabinovich, "The Anarchy Factor in Syria," The Straits Times (Singapore), May 3, 2012.
[13] "General Census," Central Bureau of Statistics, Prime Minister's Office, Syrian Arab Republic, Damascus, accessed Dec. 21, 2012.
[14] Reuters, July 18, 19, 2012; al-Hayat, Aug. 23, 2012.
[15] Syrian TV-24, Aug. 1, 2012.
[16] "Al-Markaz al-I'lami fi Rastan," YouTube.com, July 22, 25, 2012.

Related Topics: Syria | Eyal Zisser | Spring 2013 MEQ This text may be reposted or forwarded so long as it is presented as an integral whole with complete and accurate information provided about its author, date, place of publication, and original URL.

Unless they kill Assad with no fly zone the have no hope.

This is what super power and Israel are reduced to.

[shyamd]

^^ NFZ slows down Asad supplies as he gets most via air route. I said last month that internal or external push to favour rebels will take place.

Rebels just need better weapons and they can do the needful. With risks involved of weapons going to jihadis NFZ is a safer option.

Also, keep in mind insurgency tactics - just because the rebels lost Qusair doesn't mean it's a total defeat... They withdraw into the countryside/hills and then soon they'll try and go back into Qusair and face lesser trained people holding Qusair. Standard techniques used from Afghanistan to Somalia

Bashar will fall, it's just a question of when

[habal]

Do you think the Russians are going to idly stand by and watch NFZ being implemented over Syria.

And also why do you think NFZ wasn't already implemented over Syria for so long.

Syrian war is first going to spread itself elsewhere, before anything happens to Assad.

>> Bashar will fall, it's just a question of when.

Lol, all human beings will fall. Only question of when. Bashar may well fall of old age.

[shyamd]

Lol that's quite a statement for a man who has lost at least 30% of his country and large swathes heavily contested.

Russians: have you not been reading the news? Russia has been supplying him with weapons and money since day 1. In contrast what have the US done? Other than just talk.. Nothing much.

This is more about Geneva 2 and that Asad will be asked to step down. Asad won't agree and Geneva 2 will be declared failed. Only then the decision to arm will made. Asad has already crossed the red line of using CW against his people. Wait till G8.

No decision has actually made by the US to arm rebels. What the US is doing now is TTW - transition to warfare and making Asad shit his bricks. I am told the decision will be made soon.

[habal]

30% seem to be the limit he will lose. Since tribal agrarian backward Sunni's also control same amount of land area.

Lines were drawn when Russia decided to protect it's interests. Now the option open to western powers is to take a risk and do a shock & awe on Syria and mock Russians into retaliation.

Anything can happen, and western-led forums will not provide solution to this crises.

btw, what do you think of the massacre of shiites by GCC sponsored Sunni terrorists. Why do you think GCC-led terrorists will provide succour to the Syrian sectarian mix and not lead to wholesale slaughter citing Sharia, blasphemy bismillah.

the only way the Syrian upper class bourgeoise can participate in this overthrow of Assad is, only if the war draws out for long time and they get tired of regime and stockholm syndrome settles in. In this context Assad should show dexterity.

[shyamd]

30% seem to be the limit he will lose? Have you seen the areas he supposedly has in control? He can barely control the high security districts inside Damascus! Have you not seen the number of attacks that have taken place? Whatever happens it's gone past the point of no return... People have decided he hasti go and are ready to fight.

Re: your last para... That is what I am saying this will go on and on until eventually Russia/Iran gives up supporting him

Anyway, it won't be long... You wait and see what the west comes up with. G8 will be an interesting watch. In the meantime whether you like to admit it or not the US is moving it's assets in place. What they are proposing to do now is what I had said in 2011 - limited NFZ and cordonne sanitaire.

What do you think of Asad shabiha killing unarmed protesters, raping women, massacring innocent people incl. children? which started first?

[habal]

What do you think of Asad shabiha killing unarmed protesters, raping women, massacring innocent people incl. children? which started first?

Good point.

But can Assad's secular terrorists be countered by GCC's sectarian sunni terrorists. How do you think it makes a vital difference. The rat snake being replaced by a viper. Why do you think GCC's sectarian terrorists bring out a qualitative change to Syrian people's lives.

[shyamd]

Extremists are always used as they are the most motivated, organised and well disciplined fighters... With respect to Jabhat Al Nusra they are split now because many didn't accept allegiance to al Qaeda.

They'll deal with the extremists after the war

[vinod]

Russia-Iran cannot match the military and money power of US-Europe-Arab alliance. So, it will be a test of how long each will support their man. It is heavily in favour of the rebels.
Western alliance and Russia-Iran alliance have been supporting their people for quite sometime. But the heavy duty weapons and outright support has not been there. Now, it will be very much out in the open. Chemical weapons is just an excuse. There were reports that rebels used it. Either way, it will be blamed on Assad!
Now, Assad is not a saint, but Syria was a functioning, stable state and secular too. I'm not so sure what rebels are fighting for. Its a sponsored fight and hence at the end of the fight, it will be the thugs who will rule who will carry on their fight for the rubble that will remain. So, forget about stability in Syria or secularism for a long time.
Personally, I think it would be bad for the world, if rebels won. What/who would be the next target of sunni extremism? I'm sure Pak would like India to be that. I think it is best this fight goes on and on forever.. keeping the focus of all the extremists and they go there to meet their martyrdom!

[habal]

They'll deal with the extremists after the war

They never deal with extremists. That is the core of anglo-saxon foreign policy. They always join hands.

[shyamd]

^^ Forget the west. The people will deal with them if they don't want them there, like they did in Iraq.

-------------
Someone has been supplying Konkurs over the last few weeks in the north... More videos of Konkurs missiles being used to take out regime tanks.

[habal]

^^ Forget the west. The people will deal with them if they don't want them there, like they did in Iraq.

Sunnis in Lebanon can't deal with Iran backed hezbollah. How do you feel Syrian Shiites, Alawites, Druze, Christians will deal with money & muscle provided by Al-Saud bin Arabiya.

It's just not going to happen. People can't deal with anything. They are always helped by outside forces who can fund them to deal with anything. Even to take out a protest march. Left to themselves, the weaker group become refugees & run. They live away in refugee camps as nameless, faceless entities. If they dare to go back, the status-quo powers ensure that they are cutletted before they can spell 'blasphemy'.

Afghans couldn't deal with Taliban until the Daisy Cutters came into the picture.

[shyamd]

Wait and see. If time permits, please run through what I posted on the subject of what will happen next and what the GCC regional picture will look like. I posted in 2011 about the vision and what will happen.
----------------
Sky news arabia quoting american mil officials that Heavy arms and Anti Aircraft missiles have entered Syria via Turkey.

-----------------
Forgot to mention - 3 of the most powerful sunni scholars (Arefe, Qaradawi and another guy) asked all followers to contribute via any way possible to fight in Syria. financial or to go fight. One guy alone has 5 million folllowers on twitter - that should have been the biggest news yesterday but no western press understands the significance of it. People are taking it very very seriously.

This is going to get messy...

[Austin]

The timing of Obama declaration of use of chemical weapons conicide with the losses FSA took recently and the upcoming battle at Allepo where they were asking for more help with weapons.

The Western intel has been helping FSA with arms for as long as the conflict was ongoing since 2 years , the help will just get overt from covert , Ditto for US and expect some Westen country to follow it namely UK and France.

Similarly I would expect Russia to overly declare arms support to SAA in coming days or weeks ahead.

It will be a messy affair and no side will have an upper hand , its a ground battle who ever wins the ground battle will win the war but that would just be beginning of sectarian battle ahead. I guess we might see in days ahead Syria getting divided into few small states along sectarian lines.

[Austin]

Moscow unconvinced by US evidence of Syrian chemical weapons use

Russia is not convinced by the evidence which the US provided alleging that the government of Syria’s President Bashar Assad used chemical weapons against rebel forces.

“The Americans tried to present us with information on the use of chemical weapons by the regime, but frankly we thought that it was not convincing,” said presidential aide Yury Ushakov on Friday.

“We wouldn’t like to invoke references to the famous lab tube that [former US] Secretary of State [Colin] Powell showed, but the facts don’t look convincing in our eyes,” he added.

[shyamd]

France just said they need UNSC approval for the NFZ. But they are discussing how to bypass that. Will be interesting to see what they come up with.

NATO Chief said that by using chem weapons Asad has broken international law. But argument is that use of CW is false per Russians - easy defense.