Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Tuvaluan · Post by **Tuvaluan** » 22 Apr 2015 20:40

Why bother telling the chinese anything at all -- peaceful rise of India with its bissful neighbour china only.

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 22 Apr 2015 21:38

http://nextbigfuture.com/2015/04/china- ... nergy.html

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 25 Apr 2015 07:52

eVisa to Chinese nationals likely - Suhasini Haider, The Hindu

India may extend e-visa on arrival facility to Chinese nationals when Prime Minister Narendra Modi visits China from May 14 to 16, a move that has been held up for several years due to opposition from security agencies.

The Home Secretary is expected to chair a series of meetings focussing on Chinese concerns next week, when the decision could be taken.

Ahead of Mr. Modi’s visit, Chinese companies have raised serious issues over investing in India, also calling for an end to the government’s policy of “security clearances for countries of concern” that applies to China.

Representation

Sources have confirmed to The Hindu that the Ministry of External Affairs made a representation to the Home Ministry’s policy, which “discriminates” against Chinese investors, saying that visas were being given in a manner that “lacked objectivity and predictability.”

The issues are being taken more seriously after Chinese truck manufacturer Beiqi Foton Motor, which had announced the biggest FDI of $400 million for a plant near Pune in 2011, began to downsize its plans this February as it could not meet deadlines for setting up production because of bureaucratic hurdles.

Seems like a classic conflict between the Ministry of External Affairs and the rest of the Government.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 25 Apr 2015 11:18

Iran backs China’s inclusion - Atul Aneja, The Hindu

Iran has jumped decisively on the “belt and road” bandwagon, flagging its interest in linking China with its proposed natural gas pipeline to Pakistan.

“I don't think it's too far away [for] this pipeline to be extended to China through Pakistan. That is something that would be of common interest to Iran, China and Pakistan,” Iran’s ambassador to China Ali Asghar Khaji told South China Morning Post .

Iran’s Press TV is reporting that China has signed an initial agreement to construct the pipeline from Gwadar to Nawabshah in the southwest of Pakistan, during President Xi Jinping’s visit to Pakistan, which concluded earlier this week. Gwadar is also the starting point of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) which was formally inaugurated during the presidential visit. The CPEC will terminate in China’s Xinjiang province which is already an energy hub from where imported gas from Central Asia is channeled to China’s industrial heartland along the coast.

Analysts say that extension of the Iran- Pakistan pipeline to China will be a blow to India, which had pioneered with Iran, the concept of the an Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) peace pipeline in 1995. The Iranians have blamed India of dropping out of the project under pressure from the United States in 2009. As reported then by The Hindu , the Iranians had responded to India’s concerns, stated, in the form of non-paper in 2008, which included clarifications regarding the precise origin of the gas in Iran, as well as the point of delivery along the India-Pakistan border .

The Wall Street Journal had earlier reported the China Petroleum Pipeline Bureau, a subsidiary of Chinese energy giant China National Petroleum Corporation, will build the 700 km pipeline to Nawabshah, which is Pakistan’s gas-distribution center in the Sindh province.

Pakistan would build the 80 km of the pipeline from Gwadar to the Iranian border, where it would link with the already existing 900 km pipeline link to the gas fields of South Pars.

Flurry of activity

There has been a flurry of activity in anticipation of a possible lifting of sanctions against Iran, following the nuclear framework agreement that Tehran had signed in Switzerland, with the six global powers, earlier this month. That has included the visit to Beijing by Iran’s oil minister, Bijan Namdar Zanganeh, who went on record to laud China for backing Tehran during the peak of sanctions. He went on to say that the Islamic Republic was “willing for that cooperation to continue when sanctions are removed”.

On Thursday, the Iran-China relationship seemed gather greater political substance. During a meeting in Jakarta, on the sidelines commemorating 60-years of the Bandung conference, President Xi told his Iranian counterpart , Hassan Rouhani of Beijing’s intent to forge a “long term and stable energy cooperation” with Iran.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 25 Apr 2015 11:59

SSridhar wrote:Iran backs China’s inclusion - Atul Aneja, The Hindu
Iran has jumped decisively on the “belt and road” bandwagon, flagging its interest in linking China with its proposed natural gas pipeline to Pakistan.

This is something, I have talked about here in the last few days! There is very much a change in the strategic orientation of the region. With Iran reaching some agreement on modus vivendi with the West, Chinese plans for massive investment in the linking of Western China with Indian Ocean, there is a massive change of course foreseen in the Asian supertanker.

India is decisively being shut out of Central Asia. Afghanistan is being shut out to any Indian influence, something that is the crux of Pakistani sense of security and thus confidence in attacking India.

The Yemen crisis offers both India and the Afghans a way out, out of this land blockade! India and Afghanistan need to grab it. This is strategically equivalent to the loss of Tibet, or PoK, or Baluchistan, or Chittagong.

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 25 Apr 2015 17:55

The worst is that we can say bye-bye to PoK forever with all these recent developments. It was always an issue with a direct middle east sea access for PRC. If India had not gamed this a long time ago and seen what the end goal of a takeover of Tibet was, then we definitely deserve it. Just passing resolutions in the Parliament without action on the ground when give three opportunities over first 30 yrs of existence of this problem says a lot.

schinnas · Post by **schinnas** » 25 Apr 2015 18:28

SS ji, RajeshA ji:
Iran making noises about a pipeline to China through Pakistan need not be taken at face value. Iran will use this and any other opporunity to drive a wedge between Pakistan and KSA. Once Massa reduces its footprint in ME (Say 20 years from now) and it not in a position to actively intervene, the only thing that stands between Iran routing rest of ME is Pakistan and Egypt's support for KSA. Unlike an Iran Pakistan pipeline that would be open to manipulation by KSA, Iran Pukistan Cheen pipeline cannot be shutdown so easily by KSA. Neither can Massa enforce its sanctions effectively 20 years from now, given the growth rates of Cheen and declining growth of Massa.

Naturally KSA just cannot let it happen and neither would Israel or Turkey. Pukistan is playing some big game here and it not necessarily have a happy ending for Pukis. I feel that a wedge is created in the relationship between Puki and KSA due to Puki double speak. Once Massa goes fully out of Afghanistan, Massa's interest in propping up Pukis economically will be next to nil. The only two primary backers of Pukis would be Cheen and KSA. So far, Pukis were able to ride both horses but the moment Iran enters the fray, Pukis would have to say no to either Cheen or KSA. At present they are not in a position to say No to either.

IPC pipeline or IP pipeline is not good news for India either. India's priority would be to ensure that Balochistan is liberated and liberated soon. That will fundamentally change all these strategic games being played to India's benefit and to the benefit of the people of Baloch nation.

Tuvaluan · Post by **Tuvaluan** » 26 Apr 2015 04:48

Bade wrote: If India had not gamed this a long time ago and seen what the end goal of a takeover of Tibet was, then we definitely deserve it. Just passing resolutions in the Parliament without action on the ground when give three opportunities over first 30 yrs

The actions of the GoI have already spoken, which is why the Chinese are so brazen when it comes to the Indian border. From all the gurglings by ex-MEA retired fogies, there is no chance of India ever stating that it does not support "One China" policy, even as the chinese taunt India in Leh, Arunchal, and PoK.

There were no roads built on the Indian side of the border with China even as china built those roads post haste in the past couple of decade. That should be an indicator of the strategic (lack of) direction from the babudom and leadership in new delhi. Of course, if and when china loses and control of Tibet, chinese infrastructure would save India the trouble of building that stuff....but small chance that such an outcome is likely.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 26 Apr 2015 14:58

vijaykarthik wrote:What is wrong with the way the brains of our Chinese brethren work?

China may build rail tunnel under Mount Everest, state media reports - The Guardian

China must rethink after the latest events.

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 26 Apr 2015 17:17

I fully expect US and KSA to play spoil sport after the IP pipeline
What a lot havent perhaps seen apart from the IP pipeline: Adding it here though it isn't China -- but its relevant surely:

Shabaz Sharif, Punjab province CM was sent to KSA to hobnob with the fellas there and he brought back disturbing news. And that led the Sharrifs plus defence min to rush to KSA to meet Salman.

I am sure the PRC-Pak tête-à-tête has a lot to do with this. Plus Yemen. If Pak tried to go out unilaterally, KSA will surely start playing spoil sport (with / w/o US help) in the Balochi regions. And we should help them discreetly. And what about Iran? They will be caught in a bind... and realize that its far easier, cheaper and safer to transport gas up to the EU than to the Chinese idiots through patently infested regions.

Its easy to nudge the fellas. Just need to activate the right levers and multiply the costs so they look at the other options on the table. As long as Doval, Modi and co do that (along with the rest of the fellas who are interested stakeholders) , we can rest easy.

Plus I think the map above [thanks!] shows that we should pick Oman as a place to get a naval base? Perhaps one near Tanzania / Mozambique too.

I wish... really wish that we start moving out in naval bases. That's where the trick is... and we have fallen apart by leaps and bounds there. We had an adv in naval (nou as the original sankrit word) and we seem to have gone down and we are neck-neck with China. We need to become blue water and encircle China. If that's not possible, which is actually true, we should have our own SCS and ECS "garland of flowers" to push the Chinos back. And we seem to have a lot of options there to play with.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 27 Apr 2015 06:49

India, China to boost maritime cooperation during PM Modi's visit
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 034776.cms

NEW DELHI: China may allow India access to the Western Pacific Ocean, while India may countenance Chinese presence in the Indian Ocean. When Prime Minister Narendra Modi travels to China in a couple of weeks, the two Asian powers may sign an innocuous-sounding "scientific cooperation" agreement.
In reality, it has deeper significance - first, an acknowledgement that India and China are the big powers in these ocean areas and second, acknowledgment of the growing reach of both countries in what is considered their strategic backyard. There are few details available about the proposed agreement, but sources said this could imply India-China cooperation at a different level.
Any India-China document for cooperation in the oceans will be set up against the strategic vision document on Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean region between the US and India signed during US President Barack Obama's January visit. That particular agreement, whose strategic implications reverberated outside India, had compelled the rest of Asia to sit up and take note of the evolving US-India equation, largely because it set out an "acceptable" code of conduct in the region.
India and China have already agreed to start a maritime cooperation dialogue, as set out in the joint statement when Chinese President Xi Jinping visited India in September. "The two sides decided to hold the first round of maritime cooperation dialogue within this year to exchange views on maritime affairs and security, including anti-piracy, freedom of navigation and cooperation between maritime agencies of both countries."The political dialogue between Modi and Xi Jinping will hold greater value. China watchers have predicted a possible breakthrough discussion on resolution of the boundary dispute that continues to be a thorn in bilateral relations. While a resolution may be ambitious at this stage, analysts agree that an exchange of maps in the western sector would be a big step forward.

China may also conduct a feasibility study of a high speed railway corridor between Delhi and Chennai. As a start, they will conduct a "pilot project" for a certain part of the route, said sources. Japan is already in the final stages of conducting a feasibility study for a Shinkansen (bullet train) corridor between Mumbai and Ahmedabad, while France has agreed to study upgradation of railway link between Delhi and Chandigarh to a semi-high speed line. With the Modi government focused on reviving the railways as an engine of growth and connectivity in India, China, France and Japan will become big players in this area. China has made a huge success of its own high speed railway system, now the largest in the world.Modi is expected to begin his trip in South Korea, then to China and ending up in Mongolia. On 14th May, he will accompany Xi Jinping to his hometown in Xian, which holds historical significance particularly with regard to the silk route. The next day he has official meetings in Beijing and will end his journey in Shanghai where, on the 16th he will address a group of Indian diaspora as part of his now standard community outreach.

Tuvaluan · Post by **Tuvaluan** » 27 Apr 2015 21:28

This whole silk route charade from the Chinese needs to be treated with utter contempt -- hopefully there will be silence on the Indian side on all the chinese moves in the Indian ocean re: maritime silk road.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 27 Apr 2015 21:30

The only way to neutralize China-Pakistan-Iran axis is through a India-Afghanistan-Saudi axis.

Get rid of the Pakistani Army, and China becomes a non-entity in the Indian Ocean Region!

Tuvaluan · Post by **Tuvaluan** » 27 Apr 2015 21:32

There can't be just one approach to deal with China -- it would a mistake to play chess when the other side is playing Go. It explains why the GoI is focussing on the South China Sea and to the north towards central asia and in the south w.r.t. Bangladesh and Srilanka and maldives. Go is all about having multiple pressure points and then feinting and picking and choose where to apply pressure as a means to capture the real deal. And unlike Chess, there is no End Game, much like reality.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 27 Apr 2015 21:38

Some advantages become long-term strategic advantages for the player, like Britain partitioning Bharat, China marching into Tibet, Pakistan getting PoK! Tactical brilliance can't be a substitute for strategic gains!

Tuvaluan · Post by **Tuvaluan** » 27 Apr 2015 22:04

Getting rid of the Paki army is all well and good in theory -- they have the guns and they control all the terrorist groups in the region, with China's support these days, and the US providing life support. Taking the paki army down can only be done when they are no longer able to control the country and are stretched thin, and there is no alternative civilian structure existing that can support them. Saudi arabia is inconsequential -- they must be allowed to support pakistan, as they provide the means for pakistan to carve out their own insides via exporting soothi culture into Pakistan and allowing increasing amounts of islam to happen...and this also provide competing forces to China as we see already. Afghanisthan and India has to be a bilateral affair -- the saudi relationship should be purely transactional as it currently is. Little sense in getting strategically involved with a bunch of brainless cowards whose only claim to fame is the serendipity of living on a piece of land with plenty of oil underneath.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 27 Apr 2015 22:16

If Not Soodi(Saudi) , Gelf need to be under Indian protection. Oman, Qatar, UAE etc are too small to fend for themselves from Persia or Paris or Pennsyl-bania or Pritain. They need to come to Papa Damodar's Chattarchaaya.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 27 Apr 2015 22:24

Actually PRC took over TSP to protect it from the fallout of Ralph Peters map making venture run loose.

TSP has now one master not any friends.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 27 Apr 2015 22:35

ramana wrote:

TSP has now one master not any friends.

The power vacuum has been filled partially.
But India has to be prepared for a coordinated border war in 2020

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 28 Apr 2015 04:00

ramana wrote:Actually PRC took over TSP to protect it from the fallout of Ralph Peters map making venture run loose.
TSP has now one master not any friends.

Make the enemy Friendless before initiation of hostility, i think one Chinaman said this. Paki have now master not friend. Threaten Master and he wills sacrifice slave to save limb in Tibet.

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 28 Apr 2015 09:30

Frigging buggers:

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomac ... scmp_today

A Chinese nuclear submarine has completed an anti-piracy mission in the Gulf of Aden, demonstrating the navy's ability to operate in waters far from home.

Military analysts said the deployment would cause unease among China's neighbours, but that Beijing would deploy more vessels to far-flung regions as it broadened its political and investment interests overseas.

The military channel of state-run CCTV said on Sunday that the submarine patrolled the Gulf of Aden for more than two months, escorting two ships and a supply vessel, but had since returned to its base in Qingdao , Shandong province.

The report did not specify the type of submarine, but some commentators say the footage suggests it was an updated version of a Type 091.

CCTV interviewed Deputy Commander Yu Zhengqiang, who said the crew had to overcome many obstacles during the mission.

"First, there were concerns about all the equipment and facilities, and second [we had to] deal with various challenges while sailing in totally unknown waters, which was complicated by military intelligence issues," he said.

Deputy Commander Yu Zhengqiang. Photo: CCTV
It is the first time state media has reported on the submarine's mission in the Gulf of Aden, though there has been speculation about it in overseas media.

Analysts said the deployment was strategically significant, particularly because the region is seen as India's backyard.

"Someone may argue that sending a submarine, especially a nuclear one, for an escort mission is not as efficient as [sending other] military vessels, but it is a good opportunity for the People's Liberation Army to test the reach of the vessel," said Ni Lexiong , a Shanghai-based military commentator.

He said it was necessary for the PLA to undertake such missions to train personnel and test vessel performance.

Antony Wong Dong, a Macau-based analyst, expected China would send more military vessels to the Gulf of Aden, especially as the country's engagement overseas would be boosted under the "One Belt, One Road" initiative.

"China has to step up the protection of its interests abroad. Sending more military vessels [overseas] is essential to that aim," he said.

Hsieh Tai-hsi, secretary general of the Taipei-based Society for Strategic Studies, said the deployment would concern both the United States and countries in the region, particularly India. He said India was already concerned about Pakistan's deal to buy eight Chinese submarines and China's involvement in port projects in South Asia.

"But more importantly, through the mission, the PLA was able to cooperate with vessels from other countries, thereby allowing it to evaluate the capabilities and performances of the navies of these countries," he said.

Hsieh said the deployment could help the PLA survey the underwater and hydrological conditions in the region, and help improve its battle strategies.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 28 Apr 2015 14:48

ramana wrote: TSP has now one master not any friends.

Touche.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 28 Apr 2015 14:53

U.S., Japan agree on new defence rules - AFP, The Hindu

The United States and Japan unveiled new rules for defence cooperation Monday in a historic move that will give Japanese armed forces a more ambitious global role amid concerns over China’s rising sway.

Under the revised guidelines, Japan could come to the aid of U..S forces threatened by a third country or, for example, deploy minesweeper ships to a mission in the Middle East.

New doctrine

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Defense Secretary Ashton Carter and Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida and Defense Minister Gen Nakatani revealed the new rules after talks in a New York hotel.

Although officials said the new doctrine is not aimed at China, there has been increasing concern over moves by Beijing to try to scoop up disputed areas of the South China and East China Seas.

But they pointedly made mention of North Korea as another source of tension in the region.

Mr. Kerry stressed that the United States saw the disputed Senkaku islands, known in Chinese as the Diaoyus, as firmly under Japan’s control.

Washington’s “commitment to Japan’s security remains ironclad and covers all territories under Japan’s administration, including the Senkaku islands,” Mr. Kerry said. The sovereignty of the isles have been the source of friction between Tokyo and Beijing for decades.

The guidelines came a day before U.S. President Barack Obama rolls out the red carpet at the White House for Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe for a high-profile visit.

Reinterpretation

Under the previous rules, Japanese forces could assist American troops only if they were operating in the direct defence of Japan.

The amended guidelines were drawn up to reflect a reinterpretation of Japan’s Constitution by Mr. Abe’s government last year, which allows for “collective defence.”

The new defence guidelines are part of Mr. Abe’s bid to soften Japan’s constitutional commitment to pacifism.

Tokyo’s readiness to embrace what Mr. Abe calls “proactive pacifism” comes amid growing anxiety in Japan and across Asia over China’s rising military and economic might

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 28 Apr 2015 15:54

China to integrate Mongolian, Russian initiatives with MSR - Atul Aneja, The Hindu

In tune with its effort to interface India’s Mausam and Spice Route projects with its Maritime Silk Road (MSR) initiative, China is making headway in integrating a Mongolian and a Russian initiative to develop another spur of its ambitious Silk Road land corridor.

China wants to include Mongolia’s “Steppe road” initiative, and link up with the Moscow-driven transcontinental rail plan to develop the China-Mongolia-Russia (CMR) economic corridor.

The CMR initiative is similar to two other undertaking initiated by China: the recently inaugurated Pakistan-China economic corridor, and the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) corridor.

China is encompassing a string of initiatives, hoping to sprout several new “growth engines” in Eurasia under the “Belt and Road” umbrella.

Faced with the challenge of convincing governments to integrate their national plans within the “Belt and Road” initiative, the Chinese have already sounded their readiness to enmesh India’s Mausam and Spice Route projects within the framework of its larger plans.

Link with Mausam

China’s ambassador to India, Le Yucheng told The Hindu , in an interview that China was “willing to strengthen communication and coordination with India, to link the ‘Belt and Road’ initiatives with India’s ‘Spice Route’ and ‘Mausam’ projects, and bring tangible benefits to the peoples in our two countries and throughout the region.”

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 28 Apr 2015 17:38

Defense cooperation guidelines with U.S. present new roles, risks for Japan - Masaaki Kameda, Japan Times

The new Japan-U.S. defense guidelines approved Monday will transform the nature of the Self-Defense Forces’ overseas operations, eliminating geographical limits on the nation’s military cooperation with U.S. forces.

The changes have divided security analysts in Japan.

Some fear the country could be dragged into a conflict overseas involving an ally, presumably the U.S. military.

Others welcome what amounts to a war manual, saying the guidelines are well designed to reflect the growing role of the Japan-U.S. military alliance in the face of grave security issues in the Asia-Pacific and elsewhere.

“There is one clause that will significantly change the nature of SDF activities,” said Kyoji Yanagisawa, who has served as assistant chief Cabinet secretary in charge of crisis management. He was referring to an article that deals with mutual asset protection of the SDF and the U.S. military.

The asset protection article means the SDF would be obliged to defend the U.S. military if the U.S. is under attack by a third party, potentially dragging Japan into the conflict, Yanagisawa said. This would be a departure from the previous posture of Japan’s forces, which had been limited to defense.

For instance, the guidelines permit Japan to assist the U.S. military in hostilities in the Middle East or the South China Sea, media reports said.

The revised guidelines would allow the SDF to protect U.S. warships whether during times of peace or during a grave crisis that would threaten the “survival” of Japan, said Yanagisawa, a former Defense Ministry official.

The bilateral guidelines set forth general roles for the SDF and the U.S. military in joint operations.

They come at a time when the administration of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is preparing new security legislation to expand the range of SDF operations, including those involving collective self-defense, which had long been banned under the Constitution.

The postwar Constitution had been interpreted as allowing Japan only to respond when the country is directly attacked by another country. That strict, defense-only posture was widely regarded a symbol of the nation’s postwar pacifism.

But Abe, discarding the previous official interpretation, now argues Japan can use the right of collective self-defense, meaning Japan could strike another country if an allied state is under attack and it poses a critical security threat to Japan.

Abe’s new interpretation has drawn flak from many liberal, left-leaning intellectuals, who fear Japan may shed its pacifist-posture forever and start more actively engaging in U.S.-led military operations anywhere in the world.

But other experts say the revised guidelines are only designed to reflect the already expanded roles of the Japan-U.S. military alliance.

The 1997 guidelines mainly focused on the defense of Japan and emergencies in nearby regions, presumably around the Korean Peninsula.

The new guidelines have eliminated geographic restrictions for joint missions, reflecting the “global nature” of the bilateral alliance and “seamlessly ensuring Japan’s peace and security.”

The new text also declares that Japan and the U.S. will work for peace and security in “the Asia-Pacific region and beyond” in such areas as peacekeeping operations, maritime security and logistic support.

“The Alliance will respond to situations that will have an important influence on Japan’s peace and security. Such situations cannot be defined geographically,” the new document said.

Noboru Yamaguchi, a former Ground Self-Defense Force lieutenant general and current professor at the International University of Japan, said the revised guidelines give more detailed rules by which Japan-U.S. joint operations can contribute to regional and international peace and stability, compared with previous guidelines.

The guidelines thus reflect the will of the bilateral alliance to play a more active role in the international community without geographic limitations, Yamaguchi said.

The two countries have also agreed to launch a “standing Alliance Coordination Mechanism,” which will enable them to “enhance operational coordination, and strengthen bilateral planning . . . in all phases from peacetime to contingencies,” the revised guidelines state.

Yanagisawa said it is natural for Tokyo and Washington to prepare such a mechanism since their forces set out to operate together in peacetime and other situations.

In recent months, the LDP-Komeito ruling camp has engaged in talks to draft new bills to cope with various security contingencies “seamlessly” in accordance with the revised U.S.-Japan defense guidelines.

Operations involving Japan’s use of the right to self-collective defense are assumed to include mine-sweeping operations in international sea lanes and the interception of ballistic missiles.

Takashi Kawakami, a professor of security issues at Takushoku University, said the proposed security legislation would help raise Japan’s deterrent capabilities, which aim to allow for a “seamless” response to various contingencies.

But Kawakami also said Tokyo must seriously consider its national interests in deploying the SDF, given its limited military resources, including personnel and funds.

“Discussion is necessary regarding the question of how much is enough” when it comes to the expanded scope of SDF activities, Kawakami said.

Japan should consider how it can turn down proposals from the United States if they are not in Japan’s interests, and how much Japan can cooperate with the U.S. given its limited defense assets, he said.

Tuan · Post by **Tuan** » 29 Apr 2015 05:19

What India should learn from China
http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/HYX48v3 ... China.html

If Sun Tzu were alive and had a Twitter account, he would probably be telling the world how proud he is of his country. The Chinese military strategist has several reasons to revel in the rise of his homeland; not least of which is how well his descendents have read and adhered to the Art of War.

Sun Tzu wrote in his famous book that the supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting. Today, China’s foreign policy is doing exactly that and there is much that India should be concerned about, but also learn from.

Earlier this week, China and Pakistan announced a $45 billion investment plan within the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project. CPEC aims to connect Xinjiang in China’s northwest to Gwadar port in southwest Pakistan. When completed, the more than 3,000km road will give Pakistan’s sober economic fortunes a much-needed boost. For China, this investment is akin to killing several birds with one stone. This has been the case with previous Chinese foreign investments as well. Slowly, a pattern seems to be emerging. India should take note of how China is tackling five core issues.

Strategic interests: By design, for a long time now China has been encircling India by investing in mega-infrastructure projects in the subcontinent. Now, one may say there is nothing new here and the string of pearls strategy has been around for a while. But that is how encirclement works, slowly and surely. Gwadar port in Pakistan and the Hambantota port in Sri Lanka have both been developed with substantial Chinese involvement and funding. In Nepal, China intends building a 540km high-speed rail link from Tibet passing through a tunnel under Mount Everest. This rail link will come right up to the India-Nepal border.

Economy: In the first quarter of 2015, China grew at its slowest quarterly pace in six years. How can the country keep its growth engine whirring? An answer is provided by analyst Jacob Stokes in Foreign Affairs magazine: “As Beijing tries to cool an overheated domestic infrastructure sector without creating massive unemployment, plans that channel investment-led growth beyond China will be key (China’s Road Rules, Foreign Affairs, 19 April).” China’s foreign investments are geared towards addressing its domestic economic woes.

Internal stability: It is no coincidence that China is investing in projects in its northwest (Xinjiang) and south (Tibet). Both Xinjiang and Tibet are centres of ethnic unrest. They are also underdeveloped. By boosting investment in these regions, China hopes to boost growth and employment. It hopes that in the long run this can help in minimizing domestic strife.

Funding: The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) proposed by China is garnering immense popularity. As of last week, AIIB had 57 members, with most major economies except the US, Japan and Canada becoming a part of the venture. AIIB’s purpose is to provide funding for Asian infrastructure projects. It is a no-brainer that funding for China’s projects in its neighbourhood will be drawn from AIIB. The New Development Bank formed by the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) is likely to share in this objective.

Energy: Every economy needs oil to fuel its growth. Despite having the world’s third largest coal reserves, China imports coal, oil and gas. Why? Because it maintains a strategic petroleum reserve which is essentially an emergency oil store to deal with supply shocks. China can afford to do this because it has formed strategic partnerships with almost all oil and gas exporting countries. The country is also estimated to have the world’s largest recoverable shale gas reserves, reserves that it has as yet kept unexploited, no doubt for future use.

China’s rise since 1979 has not been a series of happy accidents. It has been the result of immense planning and foresight. The country’s foreign policy has been geared to meet its security, strategic and economic needs in a masterful way. If India is to have any hope of standing up to its powerful neighbour, it needs to take note and formulate its foreign policy similarly. Else, as Sun Tzu warned, the war will be lost without a fight.

Tuvaluan · Post by **Tuvaluan** » 29 Apr 2015 06:22

Sun Tzu wrote in his famous book that the supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting. Today, China’s foreign policy is doing exactly that and there is much that India should be concerned about, but also learn from.

What a load of utter nonsense. How exactly is china not fighting today? It has overtly claimed territory belonging to all of its neighours both on land and at sea. They are currently involved in hostile border wars with India, Phillipines, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Myanmar, to name a few -- all of based on chinese bullsh!t about possessing that territory during some XYZ dynasty many centuries ago or some bogus demarcation of the south china sea.

All this pretensions of chinese strategery with pithy quotes like "sun tzu say never wear underwear over trousers" or some such nonsense seems to pretend that everyone else is not watching hostile Chinese activity in the region. Just because countries are reacting cautiously, it does not mean china's "peaceful rise" behavior is actually believed by any of its neighbours, and if the chinese shills in the media think that, then they are the idiots in all of this.

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 29 Apr 2015 07:46

All that sub-ducting Indian landmass under Tibet belongs to the Indian plate along the same lines of logic. We just need to recover all that is lost by an act of geology. Tibet belongs to India.

Tuan · Post by **Tuan** » 29 Apr 2015 08:53

Tuvaluan wrote:
Sun Tzu wrote in his famous book that the supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting. Today, China’s foreign policy is doing exactly that and there is much that India should be concerned about, but also learn from.
What a load of utter nonsense. How exactly is china not fighting today? It has overtly claimed territory belonging to all of its neighours both on land and at sea. They are currently involved in hostile border wars with India, Phillipines, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Myanmar, to name a few --

It depends on how you define "hostile border wars" that China is fighting and how many bullets it has fired in doing so.
Neither the author nor I see China's "overt" war in the regions you have mentioned.

Pulikeshi · Post by **Pulikeshi** » 29 Apr 2015 09:19

Tuan wrote: Sun Tzu wrote in his famous book that the supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting. Today, China’s foreign policy is doing exactly that and there is much that India should be concerned about, but also learn from.

Sun Tzu also said - "use big data and wage internal war on your citizens by rating them and you will defeat all external enemies!"

China uses Big Data to rate citizens new Social Credit System

F.A. Hayek may be proved wrong "... no one is that smart...." - China is that smart!

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 29 Apr 2015 12:25

Tuan wrote:What India should learn from China
http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/HYX48v3 ... China.html

[quote>>]Energy: Every economy needs oil to fuel its growth. Despite having the world’s third largest coal reserves, China imports coal, oil and gas. Why? Because it maintains a strategic petroleum reserve which is essentially an emergency oil store to deal with supply shocks. China can afford to do this because it has formed strategic partnerships with almost all oil and gas exporting countries. The country is also estimated to have the world’s largest recoverable shale gas reserves, reserves that it has as yet kept unexploited, no doubt for future use.[<</quote]

I usually stay away from China related threads these days but wandered in searching for AIIB related news and this caught my eyes.

Sun Tzu says,

1. Import coal and gas to build strategic petroleum reserve?!!

2. China can *afford* to build strategic petroleum reserve because it has formed strategic partnerships?!!

Poor India can never *afford* to build strategic petroleum reserve now that China has cornered all the strategic partnerships. (Not the oil mind you; Oil is still freely traded outside strategic partnerships)
3. Despite having the world’s third largest coal reserves China imports coal because to keep it unexploited no doubt for future use?!!

I have taken the liberty with last part and have applied the excellent shale reserves logic to coal.

I can tell you if Sun Tzu is right or rather the authors interpretation of Sun Tzu is right, India is the most strategically forward thinking country in the world even better than China. Our governments of the past have done everything in their power to keep coal, gas, oil, shale, methane hydrate and uranium reserves right in the ground. The current government is rather foolishly trying to reverse that.

psss..... As everywhere else in the *free* world many farts that appear in Indian media are written by utter fools even in so called prestigious publications. Wonder how this gem got past the editorial board ... oh wait! it seems to have been written by that bunch.

manjgu · Post by **manjgu** » 29 Apr 2015 17:58

what Tuan has posted is not without merit. china is slowly strangulating all options for many countries... while mouthing peaceful nothings but slowly inserting the dagger. indian statecraft is found seriously wanting and childish in front of chinese.. i hope modi ji is able to turn this tide..

Tuvaluan · Post by **Tuvaluan** » 29 Apr 2015 19:03

Tuan wrote:Neither the author nor I see China's "overt" war in the regions you have mentioned.

Perhaps you two are not looking hard enough or don't want to see what is in front of you. China attacks and claims territory belonging all of those countries I mentioned and then some. You really think everyone is going to look at China's aggressive assholery with threat of use of force/war and think, "oh, this is what a peaceful rise of china looks like"?

manjgu · Post by **manjgu** » 29 Apr 2015 19:29

china is leaving countries with no options but to accept its hegemony... like building an island with air strips,,declaring ADIZ, even building a road in POK, etc etc..."covertly" it is presenting a fait accompli to many countries... unfortunatley save for india no country can really give a meaningful counter to china. and india is also amateurish in its statecraft compared to chinese...

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 29 Apr 2015 19:45

manjgu wrote:china is leaving countries with no options but to accept its hegemony... like building an island with air strips,,declaring ADIZ, even building a road in POK, etc etc..."covertly" it is presenting a fait accompli to many countries... unfortunatley save for india no country can really give a meaningful counter to china. and india is also amateurish in its statecraft compared to chinese...

We are slowly adopting the Kautilyan world view.

IMO, Kautilya makes Sun Tzu look like like an amateur wrt tradecraft.

We've managed to stay afloat in times of crisis and peace so we're not completely amateurish.

If you look at China's actions, it's actually not a long term sustainable option.

You can't push all the countries in your periphery to one side and not receive blow back.

I'm reminded of this clip:

manjgu · Post by **manjgu** » 29 Apr 2015 20:21

I dont know if Kautilya makes Tzu look amateurish.. but indian statecraft certainly looks amateruish as compared to chinese. we have just managed to stay afloat ( i dont think it speaks a lot abt us ..lurching from one crisis to another) when the other side is running away. Not sustainable in long run ! blow back.. i am also waiting for that blow back to happen... and while we wait Chinese are turning the screws on everyone. there is no overt war but a very sustained covert war suitably garnished with peaceful nothings from the chinese. scary times ahead...

Tuvaluan · Post by **Tuvaluan** » 29 Apr 2015 20:31

there is no overt war but a very sustained covert war suitably garnished with peaceful nothings from the chinese.

China's clashes with its neighbours on all sides is reported in news all over -- hardly the definition of a "covert war".

schinnas · Post by **schinnas** » 29 Apr 2015 20:52

China's demise is a certainty unless it totally changes its nature for the simple reason that the principles and powers that are propelling China are not consistent with where humanity is evolving towards. Sooner or later China will fall. My guess is that it is decades away. But who guessed that Berlin wall would fall so soon.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 29 Apr 2015 20:57

^^^ What specifically should Indian statecraft be accomplishing?

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 29 Apr 2015 21:01

The problem is China is not a soviet union, it has 1+ billion people economy. I hardly see it is going to fail in the near future like even a hundred years.