Bharat Rakshak

BJP not doing good in HP

Mean e while on Adani TV , pagalika is going crazy , Harvard prof is talking sense , naxal Jain is spinning it as some major AAP victory

Pappu delivers a stunning blow in Gujarat to ... his own party negative 62 atm

BJP will loose onlee

vijayk wrote:BJP not doing good in HP

This is not a good showing for JP Nadda on his home turf.. looks like 5 BJP rebels are leading and are close to anurag Thakur/ dhumal family


I will say it’s time for a new BJP chief.. Hemanta should be given a chance

Times Algebra
@TimesAlgebraIND

HUGE Breaking :- BJP wins Kurhani bypoll in Bihar defeating entire Mahagathbandhan of 8 parties.

Huge victory of BJP

I dont think even CON expected to actually win in HP!

Will the massive win in Gujarat help the BJP get a majority in Raja Sabha eventually ?

Cyrano wrote:Will the massive win in Gujarat help the BJP get a majority in Raja Sabha eventually ?

Not quite! 3 elections during the term of the newly elected government. This win can result in their pick up all seats in an election. But then they have always had majority in the assembly. So out of 11 MPs 8 are already with BJP. These BJP MPs too will retire! They can at best get three seats over a 4 year period! Significant change can come only if they unseat an opposition party and get power in a large state - as it happened in UP and could have happened in WB and MH!

These elections denied the Modi opposition be it political parties, political pundits or media, a major connection that they were trying to build for almost a year now. That India is not doing well and people dont like BJP anymore. Plus it also showed that opposition is clearly not as effective against BJP as it was projected to be.

This frustration is clear in post result analysis everywhere.

CalvinH wrote:These elections denied the Modi opposition be it political parties, political pundits or media, a major connection that they were trying to build for almost a year now. That India is not doing well and people dont like BJP anymore. Plus it also showed that opposition is clearly not as effective against BJP as it was projected to be.

This frustration is clear in post result analysis everywhere.

For BIF scoundrels, life is difficult

Huge victory for BJP in Gujarat
HP went to Termites
MCD went to For foundation agent.

SO they can't even dismiss elections as fraud and start action against EC

Victory is HP is poison Challice for the INC, very little funds can be looted from there

Aditya_V wrote:Victory is HP is poison Challice for the INC, very little funds can be looted from there

This makes little sense to me.

There is very little money to be made and thier pension promise is impossible to keep. They can't play the victim card on EVMs either, it will ultimately lead them losing Lok Sabha seats from HP and next elections.

RoyG wrote:

Aditya_V wrote:Victory is HP is poison Challice for the INC, very little funds can be looted from there

This makes little sense to me.

If the INC keeps it's election promises, the state is doomed because the old pension scheme is too expensive to continue and hence doomed to failure and if the INC does not keep it's elections promises, the party is doomed because the retirees well turn vengeful and anti INC

A lot of the retirees in the state are pensioners from the central services (Armed forces, paramilitary etc) and the state has no say at all in their pensions....

So, the INC is literally up the creek without a paddle and whoever becomes the CM will be the bali ka bakra

While some are still trying to consider HP win to say INC won one and BJP won one state most political commentators, even those who hate BJP, are not doing this. They know that HP election results are not important and are not an indicator of any trend. Especially if one looks at their impact in 2024 elections.

- the vote margin difference between BJP and INC is 0.9%. This is roughly 37K votes in total across all 68 seats. And the lowest among all previous elections
- 15 seats were decided by a margin of less than 2000 votes. Congress won 8 of these. One seat was won by INC with a margin of 60 votes.

HP is a small state and the elections are special because of low number of voters. Its clear that where BJP lost was in organization and management of rebel candidates. Not in the narrative or messaging.

if you look from the perspective of 2024 parliamentary elections with consolidated constituencies than BJP chances are intact.

On the other hand there is a clear wave for BJP in Gujrat. Lot of pundits were of an opinion that AAP will cut INC share and this will give BJP the historic win but it didn't happen this way. BJP's vote share actually increased. Plus all AAP vote share percentage (its aggregated) is coming from few constituencies. In 128 constituencies AAP candidate lost their deposit. So there is no wave for AAP despite them getting 13% aggregated vote share. This after AAP's campaign for 6+ months and some 600+ Cr investment in the elections.

The results of 2024 parliamentary elections are clear in Gujrat. and for HP too. That's depressing for lot of Anti-BJP media folks who are already trying to build a narrative for 2024 elections.

I am going to change the thread title to Assembly Elections - 2022 and 2023 for sake of continuity and keep the thread open.
ramana

In 2023 there are 8 state elections scheduled.

Next two weeks will see assembly elections in ML, NL, and TR. All 60-member assemblies.

ML: most of the parties contesting are in the NDA/NEDA alliance nationally, yet contesting separately in state polls. Most likely result seems that all these parties will get some seats and come together to form a goremint. Congis had the highest vote share last time around, but are now reduced to 0 in the assembly (their 20s MLAs have all resigned and joined other parties over the years). TMC may be the only significant opposition.

NL: an odd example of a state in which there are multiple parties but no opposition parties, i.e. the parties are all in NDA/NEDA alliance at national level and have "friendly contests" in the state polls, get some seats, and form goremint together. Congis are contesting some seats but do not appear significant.

TR: This time the Congis and Commies have gotten together to try and unseat the BJP-IJPT sarkar. Modi and Shah making a major push in the state. A few opinion polls are available including Pradeep Bhandari (Jan Ki Baat), all predicting a BJP win.

According to Pradeep Singh, the Commie-congi alliance in TR will likely be a failure: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YEsulG11ZPw

So, does it mean that, in all 3 states, it is likely to be a BJP/NDA sweep?

Wait and watch, bud. Ram naam japo, hari guna gaao.

Tripura situation doesn’t look good for BJP. In the 69-seat assembly BJP will be lucky to cross 25. New entrant Tipra Motha will make things easier for Con-Commie combo. A lot of local resentment against local utterly corrupt BJP leaders. Commies are exploiting this to the fullest.

Kati wrote:Commies are exploiting this to the fullest.

I think the commie party infrastructure is still alive in Tripura. BJP did not go the way TMC dealt with commies in West Bengal. Also for commies Tripura is a do or die battle. I still remember the situation in last elections. Commie party channel in Kerala was completely focusing on Tripura and how they were winning against the BJP. For the commies Tripura was India . And then in the final laps of counting, situation started changing. The faces of the commies on the channel news room started changing and it was worth the watch .

Sachin wrote:

Kati wrote:Commies are exploiting this to the fullest.

I think the commie party infrastructure is still alive in Tripura. BJP did not go the way TMC dealt with commies in West Bengal. Also for commies Tripura is a do or die battle. I still remember the situation in last elections. Commie party channel in Kerala was completely focusing on Tripura and how they were winning against the BJP. For the commies Tripura was India . And then in the final laps of counting, situation started changing. The faces of the commies on the channel news room started changing and it was worth the watch .

Itis not "I think", Sachin Saar, it has been the reality. The utter failure of the state BJP started from day one; - they kept the babudom intact which was installed by the Commies over the previous 25 years. Usually a regime change sees a shuffle in the babudom in any other place, but not in Tripura, As a result, govt's functioning and future planning used to get leaked ahead of time to the commies. The other major failure has been to undo the party rank and file structure in Tripura. It remained pretty much intact, unlike WB. That was a major blunder by the Biplob Dev in the first four years of the BJP rule when he was the CM.

Leaving the ecosystem of the previous dispensation (that is sworn to your destruction) intact to bide its time and regroup, is a common habit of BJP

sanjayc wrote:Leaving the ecosystem of the previous dispensation (that is sworn to your destruction) intact to bide its time and regroup, is a common habit of BJP

If all Babudom, Education, Industries, Businesses, Traders are with previous ecosystem, it takes time to change. What your asking the heart to be stopped from beating and change it and restart, not possible. It takes 15-20 years to develop ecosystems.

Aditya_V wrote:

sanjayc wrote:Leaving the ecosystem of the previous dispensation (that is sworn to your destruction) intact to bide its time and regroup, is a common habit of BJP

If all Babudom, Education, Industries, Businesses, Traders are with previous ecosystem, it takes time to change. What your asking the heart to be stopped from beating and change it and restart, not possible. It takes 15-20 years to develop ecosystems.

Right. Some folks are expecting an authoritarian sweep like the commies or TMC unleashed. Sounds like a great idea to wake up in the morning with, but likely counterproductive a few years down the road. BJP has not worked like that in any state.

People forget Commies and TMC or Pakistan can do something cause they have huge international backing, like see Jyoti Basu Children, Past JNU leaders, Retired Paki Generals or Abhishek Banerjee wife all foreigners. They can get away with it, unfortunately those very same forces are baying for BJP blood which has to walk on coals, the world is not fair.

Aditya_V wrote:People forget Commies and TMC or Pakistan can do something cause they have huge international backing, like see Jyoti Basu Children, Past JNU leaders, Retired Paki Generals or Abhishek Banerjee wife all foreigners. They can get away with it, unfortunately those very same forces are baying for BJP blood which has to walk on coals, the world is not fair.

100% agree.

That's why leadership is important. On one hand, the leader has to understand local sentiment and rally them with strong causes to keep them inspired and focused. On the other side, they have to keep doing surgery in non-violent manner eliminating poison

Times Algebra @TimesAlgebraIND

Nagaland Exit Poll by Zee News Matrize

BJP+ 35-43
NPF 2-5
NPP 0-1
INC 1-3

BJP+ to sweep Nagaland

Times Algebra @TimesAlgebraIND

Axis My India Tripura Exit Poll

BJP 36-45(45%)
LEFT+ 6-11(32%)
TIPRA 9-16(20%)

BJP to retain power with thumping majority Follow our handle for more news.

Times Algebra @TimesAlgebraIND

Zee News Meghalaya Exit Poll:

BJP 6-11
NPP 21-26
TMC 8-13
INC 3-6

We will see the final results but Exit polls are telling a story about North East.
The Turdesai "Tyranny of Distance" era is over.
Thats the big lesson.
Rest is water.

Wikipedia page on 2023 elections in India: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_elections_in_India

Clicking on the states takes you to the relevant election pages....it shows all the exit polls and the poll average ("poll of polls").

"Poll of poll" predictions:

TR: NDA 32/60
ML: AITC+INC is 17/60, so this means a patchwork sarkar most likely involving NPP, other local parties, and possibly BJP.
NL: NDA at least 39/60

Let us see the actual results. If these polls are correct, then pretty much the same result as in the last election.

^^ pappu has stayed away from NE just like he gave Gujarat a miss .. that’s a tell tell sign

Atmavik wrote:^^ pappu has stayed away from NE just like he gave Gujarat a miss .. that’s a tell tell sign

He did one rally in Meghalaya, where Congis have some chance of being part of a patchwork sarkar. Skipped the other two states.

Meanwhile in Karnataka
Big blow to AAP as Bhaskar Rao joins BJP in Karnataka
Bhaskar Rao IPS was also once the Com.Pol at Bangalore city. Joined AAP, and was also active on Twitter bringing up 'infra issues', 'L&O issues' etc, and pointing fingers at the current BJP Govt. Don't know what made BJP accept him. But lots of AAP-tards seems to be getting disilluisioned with politics in general, especially in states where they are not big players any ways.

'Stagnation' & 'lack of transperency' in AAP is given as the reason. Kind of a very 'IT-Vity' reason given during IT company exit interviews.

Sachin wrote:Meanwhile in Karnataka
Big blow to AAP as Bhaskar Rao joins BJP in Karnataka
Bhaskar Rao IPS was also once the Com.Pol at Bangalore city. Joined AAP, and was also active on Twitter bringing up 'infra issues', 'L&O issues' etc. Don't know what made him jump ship and join BJP, and what made BJP accept him. But lots of AAP-tards seems to be getting disilluisioned with politics in general, especially in states where they are not big players any ways.

the BJP had badly burnt their fingers when they had earlier foolishly inducted a hard core, conversion mafia type abrahamic cop from the NE. He was also serving in the KAR capital when he left and joined politics

Quite openly, that guy sold his vote for big bucks to the congis during the nuke deal and then quit.

hope that history doesn't repeat itself

chetak wrote:the BJP had badly burnt their fingers when they had earlier foolishly inducted a hard core, conversion mafia type abrahamic cop from the NE.

That was HT Sangliana, who was more into publicity than any actual police work. It was during his tenure that a police 'commando team' neutralised a Tamil peacefool terrorist in North East part of Bangalore city. Pictures of Sangliana with the 'commando team' surfaced in the media, but soon it was found that they were from Tamil Nadu police . Karnataka Police at that time did not have any 'commando units'.

OK, results are coming out.. seems like clean NDA sweep in TR and NL.

Also good performance by BJP in ML and likely on the way to form goremint with NPP.