West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

[bala]

On the US Iran deal - I think it is a complete waste of time to understand the dealings between the two nations via munna Pukes. No one really knows for sure what is going on and what terms have been agreed upon by the two. Iran itself is a question mark as to who is in charge. And then there is the urgency of restoring the supply issue of crude. On the other hand the nuclear issue has to be resolved otherwise the exercise is a complete waste of effort. The US of course has the deep state in conjunction with CIA which have different interests for outcomes. Then there is the fickle minded DJT who is being controlled by the two previously stated entities. Picking winners and losers is another futile exercise. Meanwhile India needs to steer clear of this storm and look out for its own interests.

[chetak]

On the US Iran deal - I think it is a complete waste of time to understand the dealings between the two nations via munna Pukes. No one really knows for sure what is going on and what terms have been agreed upon by the two. Iran itself is a question mark as to who is in charge. And then there is the urgency of restoring the supply issue of crude. On the other hand the nuclear issue has to be resolved otherwise the exercise is a complete waste of effort. The US of course has the deep state in conjunction with CIA which have different interests for outcomes. Then there is the fickle minded DJT who is being controlled by the two previously stated entities. Picking winners and losers is another futile exercise. Meanwhile India needs to steer clear of this storm and look out for its own interests.

bala saar,

in the interim, eyeraan will (urgently) re arm with a vengeance and no one will even attempt to stop her, except may be israel, if their red lines are crossed

[Amber G.]

Sharing:
(Will ignore shameless, pathetic trolls ... ..)

----

Obama was criticized for unfreezing $1.7 billion for Iran (if I remember this was the principal + accumulated interest on a deal that Iran had paid for but the US never delivered because of the Revolution.). The current deal allegedly gives Iran a great deal more...

.
Now some will say Iran gets $300 billion ( under obama's deal they only got $1.7 billion of Iran's frozen funds) so trump giving them $298 billion more. Also trump lifted Iran's sanctions, just said they have a right to have missiles, and 'Nuclear deal' *much* worse than JCPOA .. and the U.S. looks weak as hell.

And .. <video clip> French President Emmanuel Macron pulls off what could be the greatest diplomatic troll of all time by getting Trump to sign the "$300 Billion US Surrender to Iran" deal in... Versailles. The ignoramus Trump will have been clueless as to the historical significance of the location..

Let me just quote one post I wrote in March of this year . Similar thoughts were posted by me previously. Here it is - about " Physics-Based Diplomacy":

All — the situation is becoming increasingly serious from a nuclear perspective, given the involvement of the U.S., Israel, Iran, and now Pakistan. Not all actors here can be assumed to behave in strictly rational ways, which makes the risks harder to bound. I’d value thoughts from experts in this group.

In that context, To start with I’m sharing/xposting something I wrote some time ago — still relevant, perhaps even more so now (especially with Arak reactors and enriched uranium stockpiles, and hits on Israel nuclear center back in the news):

Some background -

The Iran Nuclear Deal Was a Masterclass in Physics-Based Diplomacy — And We’re Forgetting Why

The 2015 Iran nuclear agreement — formally the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) — is often discussed politically, but its most impressive feature was actually technical. Much of the critical work was done by two physicists: Ernest Moniz (U.S. Secretary of Energy, MIT physicist) and Ali Akbar Salehi (head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, also MIT-trained). When negotiations stalled politically, the technical discussions between them often produced workable solutions grounded in nuclear engineering and fuel-cycle physics.

One of the most elegant examples was the redesign of the Arak heavy-water reactor (the IR-40). In its original form, the reactor could have produced on the order of ~8–10 kg of plutonium per year — roughly the quantity needed for one weapon annually if separated. Rather than dismantle the reactor (which Iran would not accept), the core was redesigned: power reduced, low-enriched uranium fuel introduced, lattice geometry changed, and spent fuel committed to export. The result was a research-type reactor producing roughly ~1 kg of plutonium per year and with far less suitable isotopic composition for weapons. This was not a political ban — it was a reactor-physics solution.

The enrichment constraints at Natanz were similarly technical. Iran retained a limited enrichment program but agreed to operate about 5,000 first-generation centrifuges and cap enrichment at ~3.67%. More importantly, the stockpile of enriched uranium was limited to about 300 kg of UF₆. Those parameters together determined the so-called “breakout time,” extending it to roughly a year. Another subtle technical measure was material-form management: converting enriched uranium into reactor fuel (UO₂ pellets and assemblies) makes rapid reconversion into centrifuge feedstock much slower and more visible.

A key point often misunderstood in public debate concerns enrichment levels. Many research reactors worldwide use fuel enriched up to ~20% U-235 (the conventional upper bound for low-enriched uranium). From a separative-work perspective, however, once uranium is enriched to ~20%, much of the enrichment work toward weapons-grade material has already been completed. At 60% enrichment the remaining work to reach ~90% weapons-grade is relatively small. This is why stockpiles of 60% material are considered proliferation-sensitive even when they remain under IAEA monitoring.

The JCPOA addressed these physics realities through a system approach: limits on centrifuge capacity, caps on enrichment level, strict stockpile limits, reactor redesign, and continuous monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Rather than eliminating Iran’s nuclear program, the agreement bounded the parameters of the fuel cycle so that any move toward weapons material would take time and be detectable.

Today the technical landscape looks different. Iran has enriched uranium up to 60% and expanded advanced centrifuge deployment. While much of this material is still monitored by the IAEA, the physics is straightforward: the closer enrichment approaches weapons-grade, the shorter the time required to reach it if a political decision were made. The original architecture of the JCPOA was designed precisely to prevent that situation.

Unfortunately, the public conversation in recent years — particularly during Donald Trump’s presidency and afterward — has often reduced a complex nuclear-engineering problem to slogans about “breakout in weeks” or blanket claims that any enrichment implies weapons intent. Those claims overlook the careful physics and verification structure that Moniz, Salehi, and their teams constructed. The agreement was far from perfect, but from a technical standpoint it remains one of the clearest examples of science-based diplomacy, where reactor physics, fuel-cycle engineering, and safeguards verification were used to manage proliferation risk rather than simply argue about intentions.

In short, the JCPOA worked not because it trusted anyone’s motives, but because it constrained the underlying physics.
Amber G.

[Amber G.]

Prime Minister Modi to address the Indian Diaspora in France at 10pm IST.

[Amber G.]

Trump on Iran deal

[Vayutuvan]

Stock market is doing well. At least he is factual on that front.

Egg prices have come down in 2025 itself. A big deal was made about that issue in feb 2025 itself.

[Amber G.]

Per Paki news media:

ये ना होता तो सितम कुछ और ही होना था
मैं वो हूँ जिसे बेइज्जत पर हर हाल पर बस रोना था.

Had that not happened, the ordeal would have been something else entirely;
I am the sort of person destined only to weep in every situation where I was humiliated.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has cancelled his planned visit to Switzerland on Friday, 19th June.

[williams]

Per Paki news media:

ये ना होता तो सितम कुछ और ही होना था
मैं वो हूँ जिसे बेइज्जत पर हर हाल पर बस रोना था.

Had that not happened, the ordeal would have been something else entirely;
I am the sort of person destined only to weep in every situation where I was humiliated.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has cancelled his planned visit to Switzerland on Friday, 19th June.

What a country

[A_Gupta]

At this rate, it is better to be enemy of US, attack it and then claim reimbursement rather than be an ally and get sold-out.

Movie: The Mouse That Roared (1959)
Peter Sellers has a triple role.

A tiny, impoverished European nation declares war on the United States of America, planning to lose in order to collect post-war compensation.

Full plot at Wiki: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Mouse ... red_(film)

[Amber G.]

Movie: The Mouse That Roared (1959)
Peter Sellers has a triple role.

Did not see the movie, but the book, IIRC was was in 'required reading' for my niece in 60's when she was was in middle school... and yes I too still remember it.. thanks... have to see the movie..

Duchess- " How did the war go?"
Tulley " Well, Your Grace, we're home...I know it will come as a surprise, a pleasant one..I hope, but we sort of won.
PM - You sort of WHAT?

Meanwhile:

Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said he authorised the MoU with the US despite holding different views, after President Pezeshkian assured him that Iran's rights and the interests of the "Resistance Front" would be safeguarded.

US Central Command Statement:

“Today, U.S. forces lifted the blockade on all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports and coastal areas, in accordance with the President's direction. American forces are not impeding the transit of vessels to or from Iranian ports. All U.S. military blockade enforcement efforts have ceased. Our great Naval Ships will remain in the general area to make sure that all aspects of the agreement are adhered to, obeyed and in full force and effect.”

[V_Raman]

I guess massa has gotten the revenge for embassy siege. The window for revenge was closing and that what this is all about imo.

[Vayutuvan]

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has cancelled his planned visit to Switzerland on Friday, 19th June.

Just now, VPPTUS Vance said in a press conference that something technical details of how to lift nuc material from Iran will happen in Switzerland over the weekend. It might even go into next week. As per his answer, Iranians need a little more time to get to Switzerland.

Even a day or two delay triggers CNN/ABC/CBS/NBC/Axios meltdown

[Vayutuvan]

Did not see the movie, but the book, IIRC was was in 'required reading' for my niece in 60's when she was was in middle school...

That movie is very good and funny. Peter Sellers' comedy is always top-notch.

[Amber G.]

Along with "Stock market is doing well" & "Egg prices have come down" and..other gems ..another mater-piece!- this tweet from 2013..

[Vayutuvan]

Are you contesting facts? The stock market is doing very well, and egg prices have come down. What are your alternate facts?

That 2013 tweet is not relevant to the current discussion. If you intend to troll, try harder instead of going off on a tangent.

Obviously, you can't contest the facts and hence start trolling.

Unlike some others, I can separate trolling from serious replies.

[A_Gupta]

The real purpose of the war with Iran was to drive the Epstein-Trump files off of the front page; and that objective has pretty much been achieved.

[drnayar]

Along with "Stock market is doing well" & "Egg prices have come down" and..other gems ..another mater-piece!- this tweet from 2013..

2013 but quite right as it is now., Trump achieved the impossible.

Now lets see whether Israel / Mossad is really in control of the Epstein files !

[bala]

Now lets see whether Israel / Mossad is really in control of the Epstein files !

This entire episode is quite a lesson in what happens when the big boys decide something (decided of course by the Deep State and in the company of three letter acronym institutes). Special affects are like Epstein, woke theme, LGBTQ and so on and oh let us not forget the Dems vs Repub circus too. The hoi polloi care about the daily bread and butter stuff and think they control the nation by voting, etc. The media buggers are there to create they own pipe dream of entertainment at the same time, mostly clueless, mainly made up nonsense from their not so fertile heads.

But take a look at what happens behind the scene. Strip out resources like crude oil control from unsavory nations, take away cheen plans for nuclear chaos in ME, bomb the helll out of them using weapons from MIC, scare away the rest like Cheens/Russia, come up with a strategy of asks that no sane nation would agree, bomb some more, get them to capitulate, manage the flow of information by keeping it close to the chest. The El Presidente of the US is always a tool for their sinister world domination outlook, they attempted thrice on his life. The MICs are there to test out new fangled stuff and replenish the order book to keep the moolah flowing. The 3-letter institutes roll out their strategy paper and other tricks. Israel went full blast mode into Iran. Meanwhile Cheen and Russia have other cards that they play and El President visits them and begs for rare earths and supply chain problems for the hoi polloi. Quite something to study and learn from the shenanigans of the big boys.

[A_Gupta]

The hoi polloi care about the daily bread and butter stuff and think they control the nation by voting, etc

Actually, they don't. That is why campaigns like this are on fire: "We have a political system that is entirely inaccessible to the average American. It is a political system that not representative of the average person and therefore doesn't represent the average person. It is a politics that has been turned into a theater for elites."

And that is also why typically turn out in American elections is low - voter apathy.

[A_Gupta]

This entire episode is quite a lesson in what happens when the big boys decide something (decided of course by the Deep State and in the company of three letter acronym institutes)

If this episode refers to the war with Iran, then the entire American elite establishment and the "Deep State" however you define it, were against it. (Of course, nobody here ever defines what they mean by the "Deep State".). We know that from not after-the-fact, but contemporary news articles all through the 2000s and 2010s about how Netanyahu was constantly lobbying for a war with Iran and the US establishment was turning him down.

If the Deep State, whatever your definition, was in the ascendant till Trump then Trump going to war with Iran is at odds with the Deep State.

[bala]

The hoi polloi care about the daily bread and butter stuff and think they control the nation by voting, etc

Actually, they don't.

The key word is "think". Whether they control things was shown clearly during Bidenwa election when voting by mail turned the tide into his favor. Ukraine war was started during Bidenwa time and that is another Deep State goal.

If this episode refers to the war with Iran, then the entire American elite establishment and the "Deep State" however you define it, were against it. (Of course, nobody here ever defines what they mean by the "Deep State".)

People like Maj Gen Rajiv Narayanan and Aadi Achint have a series of YT where "Deep State" worldwide has been identified and defined properly. The UK/Germany faction which looted India and the entire world have conveniently relocated to the US after WW-II. They have a mechanism to co-opt others into their fold like B. Gates. I suggest you educate yourself properly.

As for Israel not permitted to have war with Iran, this is one of the goals of the Deep State. Their previous goals included Iraq and Saddam H, Libya was next (H Clinton was the key tool), then Russia (which is forever a target), Iran happens to be next in the list, Venezuela was taken out. You see a theme - it is about worldwide domination of resources including oil.

[SRajesh]

Could I ask the Mods and the Forum members if there is a need for discussion about wider impact of this conflict.
Instead of disucssing what OM said or did not say explicitly, we need to concentrate onour Pond and our Energy security and bea Third largest Economy.
The reason I ask is because there has been mulitple resets here :
1.India vis-a vis Iran
2.India and the GCC
3. US and Iran
4. US and the GCC
5. future of OPEC and its effect on Indian Energy security
6. Potential Militarisation of Arabian Sea and our response
7. Future of IMEC
8. And the never ending problems with our puny irritating neighbours
9. Potential future blockage of SoH and the flow of Black Gold
10. And scary scenario of a Second Islamic Bum or even a dirty Bum!!

[A_Gupta]

So you do not know what the Deep State is, @bala, I have to go elsewhere to find out?

[Vayutuvan]

Strangely, people ask others to be precise when there is a whole YouTube series on what the "Deep State" is. Actors in the "Deep State" and their goals keep changing as the world turns. Whenever new tech arises, they try to steer geopolitics in a direction that is good for their own pockets. When EVs were thought to be the way to earn oodles of greenbacks, it was rare earths that needed to be controlled. Now with the rise of AI, it is the semiconductor chips - GPGPUs - and energy to run big AI compute farms.

Oil and Nuclear were always and will always be important far into the future. Oil refineries produce a lot of by products that are important for material science and engineering, aerospace, fertilizers, industrial use, ...

Defining the Deep State is not that easy because of the constant flux. At any given point in time, if one can answer the "cui bono" question, one can guess and profit from the deep state.

[bala]

When there are enough references on the Internet people keep using circular logic, what is the deep state, read references, you do not know etc. One reference point is the Crown Council of the Deep State and control of money supply - learn from YTs posted on internet or use the new fangled google AI search.

[drnayar]

Take your pick


The Deep State

Unaccountable Cabal : used by populist figures—most notably Donald Trump and his allies— a malicious, anti-democratic shadow government of entrenched Washington elites. In this interpretation, the "deep state" consists of rogue bureaucrats, media figures, and political opponents actively working to subvert the agenda of elected leaders and preserve the global "establishment "

Military-Industrial Complex : This concept suggests that major defense contractors, Wall Street financial institutions, and corporate lobbyists exert outsized, permanent control over U.S. foreign and economic policy. This draws heavily from President Dwight D. Eisenhower’s 1961 farewell address warning about the unwarranted influence of the "military-industrial complex"

Bureaucracy and National Security State : the permanent government. This encompasses career civil servants, military leadership, and intelligence agencies. These institutions maintain long-term, specialized operations that generally do not change when a new president or political party is elected.

[chetak]

Vi@WA

FINALLY SHASHI THAROOR DRAFTED THE US - IRAN AGREEMENT.

Iran and US had both approached Shashi Tharoor to write an agreement that no one understands and both could claim victory...

A G R E E M E N T

"Draft sent by Shashi Tharoor to both USA & IRAN :

Memorandum of Indeterminate Concord"

The high contracting parties hereby affirm a perspicacious realignment of their reciprocal strategic posturing, eschewing the farrago of past animosities for a nebulous state of "non-linear coexistence." By invoking this doctrine of strategic ambiguity, both nations transcend the pedestrian binaries of victory and defeat, opting instead for a translucent detente that preserves sovereign dignity through semantic opacity.

Consequently, all prior geopolitical friction is henceforth subsumed into a liminal framework of "constructive non-engagement," allowing for a paroxysm of self-congratulation in their respective capitals. This accord, being inherently mercurial and resistant to empiricism, ensures that while the ink remains dry, the interpretations shall remain perpetually effervescent and contradictory.

the pakis are crying because their DG ISPR couldn't understand a word of it and no one was able to translate it into oordu or paakjabi

DG ISPR - Director General of the Inter-Services Public Relations, the official spokesperson for the paki armed forces

[SRajesh]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/wor ... 845210.cms
Here we go!!
SoH closed again
Eyeran says Isreal to blame
They are attacking Lebanon and broken the ceasefire!!

[A_Gupta]

@chetak you made my day!

---

Re: the Military-Industrial complex - they cannot start a war without the OK from the President. They cannot sell weapons to the US military or to any other country without the go-ahead of Congress. and the President.

The bureaucracy has very limited discretionary power, as does the National Security State. Their power is such that they cannot even get the FISA extended in Congress.

[SRajesh]

Now Oil prices will zoom up again.
Pakis will be in business again.
Hopefully if they have not claimed the refund from Airlines they rebook tickuuts to Geneva
Family outing still on!!!

[saip]

Yea, and the deep state went deep this time and caused the beautiful blue paint to peel from the reflecting pool.

[Amber G.]

Per Paki news media:
ये ना होता तो सितम कुछ और ही होना था
मैं वो हूँ जिसे बेइज्जत पर हर हाल पर बस रोना था.

Had that not happened, the ordeal would have been something else entirely;
I am the sort of person destined only to weep in every situation where I was humiliated.
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has cancelled his planned visit to Switzerland on Friday, 19th June.

What a country

More:
Khwaja Asif to ARY Podcast continued ....:[ channeling Mukesh}

बस भीख ही तो मांगी थी; मगर ,
भीख में भी मिला , बस कोरा जहर.
अपनी किस्मत कुछ ऐसी थी. .....
(I had merely begged for alms; yet,
Even in that alms, I received nothing but pure poison.
Such was my fate...

"Pakistan feels Cheated by America again. It was Pakistan who initiated the Mediation between US and Iran. Our Delegation was ready to visit Switzerland to sign the MOU.
We had book flights and hotels for 105 officials including Asim Sahab and PM. We made all the payments in advance.

Who will pay for this??

Instead of thanking Pakistan, JD vance said "They were talking to Iran Directly instead of any third country".
If you wanted to talk directly, why did you ask us to hold mediation in Islamabad and made us spend 400 millions??
We lost money, we closed our city fir 2 Weeks but not a single country thanked us.
Pakistan will always remember this betrayal by G7 country

"

[chetak]

Now Oil prices will zoom up again.
Pakis will be in business again.
Hopefully if they have not claimed the refund from Airlines they rebook tickuuts to Geneva
Family outing still on!!!

SRajesh ji,


the sly paki freeloaders, en famille, had a 3-4 day vacation planned in switzerland and the resorts had already been booked when karma delivered the blow to the plexus

[Amber G.]

Yea, and the deep state went deep this time and caused the beautiful blue paint to peel from the reflecting pool.

Brilliant to talk about reflecting pool...people thought Trump forgot about it !

Yes, . Trump blames the pool algae on that deep state's vandalism. And vandalism/deep state in DC is rampant. Last year vandals destroyed half the White House. Last week a gang of criminals from deep stte ripped up the South Lawn and staged a fight club. A few months ago some cretin graffitied the Kennedy Center with his name..
This confirms it!


---
.All the dominos are going to fall in place and Trump and Iran will able to spilt 50-50 hormuz toll deep state willing..

Meanwhile : in the news:
1.- Vance leaves for Switzerland to continue the technical talks about "nuclear dust"..(Kid you not)
2. - Iran already have their team in Switzerland.
3 - A major influenza outbreak has sickened > 150 in US Air Force (This follows the Pentagon’s April 2026 decision to make the annual flu vaccine optional).. (Kid you not)...

And the stable genius -- Most brutal community note: