West Asia News and Discussions

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 20 Jun 2013 23:35

Thanks now we can appreciate the news report.

Mahendra · Post by **Mahendra** » 21 Jun 2013 00:00

BTW, what happened to the great Saudi (pbuh) announcement that King Paad would go to the Syrian border and break wind?

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 21 Jun 2013 00:02

Shape of things to come ?

Arab Islamist rebels, Kurds clash in northern Syria

Islamist rebels have cut access to a Kurdish area in northern Syria and clashed with Kurdish nationalist PKK fighters whom they accuse of backing President Bashar al-Assad, sources on both sides said on Thursday.

The confrontation threatens to open a new front in Syria's 27-month-old civil war, in which Kurds, who form about 10 percent of the population, have so far played a limited role.

Fighting erupted overnight on the edge of Ifrin, a rugged, olive-growing area on the Turkish border, the sources said. Four people were killed, bringing to at least 30 the death toll from battles and assassinations in the last few days. Dozens more have been taken in tit-for-tat kidnappings, the sources said.

Tensions between Arabs and Kurds, whose relationship is riven by land disputes, especially in eastern Syria, have risen since the uprising against Assad erupted in March 2011.

Thousands of Kurds joined peaceful pro-democracy protests early on in the revolt but the community has mostly stayed out of the armed and largely Islamist insurgency that followed.

Although Kurdish politicians hold senior posts in the mostly Arab Sunni Muslim opposition, attempts to bring the main Kurdish parties into the umbrella Syrian National Coalition have failed, amid rows over how to define Kurdish rights in a future Syria.

Assad, whose minority Alawite sect is an offshoot of Shi'ite Islam, has pulled his troops out of cities in eastern Syria and out of many parts of Ifrin in the northwest, in effect granting the Kurds an autonomy many of them fear losing if he is toppled.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 21 Jun 2013 03:44

Meanwhile in Kuwait - Kuwait and Iraq resolve their issues. And lots of progress there. Kuwaiti emir may also visit Iran

US mil drill next week on chemical weapons seizure - last one in march turned out to expose grave weaknesses.

US mi CW experts have apparently entered Syria today to see if CW were used - unconfirmed

Iran has announced 3bn aid/credit to Syria as the Syrian currency collapses.

More rumours - NK engineers are in Damascus to fix up some of the regimes missiles
German SAMs arrived in small quantity.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 21 Jun 2013 03:48

After the superb performance by Al bin Powell at the UN only morons would believe the expert views.

Brando · Post by **Brando** » 21 Jun 2013 08:16

The Chemical Weapons boogeyman is perhaps the biggest cliche that the Americans can use. Even Americans find such claims ludicrous, yet the American media has already swallowed it as gospel truth and move on....amazing! I can't figure it that is just blind patriotism on part of the US media or just American naivety.

Its' funny why nobody else is asking the US to furnish their "proof" of Chemical weapons use for independent verification.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 21 Jun 2013 12:20

don't worry, it was only "traces of sarin" this time
done as a "test" mixed with tear gas

i guess the world has to make a choice - does it want sunni-wahabbi oil or does it want shia-russian_oligarch oil?

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 21 Jun 2013 22:54

Situation very fluid in the fog of war...

FSA announced they have received "new" weapons and are distributing them in front line... So I think they are referring to MANPADs in an effort to create a defacto NFZ.

Meanwhile CIA leak today... just to make the Obama admin look a bit good and not just a fringe player (which of course they are):

Exclusive: U.S. secretly providing training for Syrian rebels
Since late last year, CIA and U.S. military operatives have been teaching Syrian rebels how to use anti-tank and anti-aircraft guns at bases in Jordan and Turkey, according to U.S. and rebel sources.

By David S. Cloud and Raja Abdulrahim
June 21, 2013, 10:07 a.m.
WASHINGTON — CIA operatives and U.S. special operations troops have been secretly training Syrian rebels with anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons since late last year, months before President Obama approved plans to begin directly arming them, according to U.S. officials and rebel commanders.

The covert U.S. training at bases in Jordan and Turkey, along with Obama’s decision this month to supply arms and ammunition to the rebels, have raised hopes among the beleaguered opposition that Washington ultimately will provide heavier weapons as well. So far, the rebels say they lack the weapons they need to regain the offensive in Syria’s bitter civil war.

The tightly constrained U.S. effort reflects Obama’s continuing doubts about getting drawn into a conflict that already has killed more than 100,000 people and the administration’s fears that Islamic militants now leading the war against President Bashar Assad could gain control of advanced U.S. weaponry.

The training has involved fighters from the Free Syrian Army, a loose confederation of rebel groups that the Obama administration has promised to back with expanded military assistance, said a U.S. official, who discussed the effort anonymously because he was not authorized to disclose details.

The number of rebels given U.S. instruction in both countries since the program began could not be determined, but in Jordan, the training involves 20 to 45 insurgents at a time, a rebel commander said.

U.S. special operations teams selected the trainees over the last year when the U.S. military set up regional supply lines to provide the rebels with nonlethal assistance, including uniforms, radios and medical aid.

The two-week courses include training with Russian-designed 14.5-millimeter anti-tank rifles, anti-tank missiles, as well as 23-millimeter anti-aircraft weapons, according to a rebel commander in the Syrian province of Dara who helps oversee weapons acquisitions and who asked his name not be used because the program is secret.

The training began last November at a new American base in the desert in southwest Jordan, he said. So far, about 100 rebels from Dara have attended four courses, while rebels from Damascus have attended three courses, he said.

“Those from the CIA, we would sit and talk with them during breaks from training and afterward, they would try to get information on the situation inside” Syria, he said.

The rebels were promised enough armor-piercing anti-tank weapons and other arms to gain a military advantage over Assad’s better-equipped army and security forces, said the Dara commander.

But arms shipments from Qatar, Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries, provided with assent from the Americans, took months to arrive and included less than the rebels had expected. {This bit is BS coz they stopped the supply lines when the first batch of Croatian weapons went through and Jabhat got their hands on them)

Since last year, the weapons sent through the Dara military council have included four or five Russian-made heavy Concourse anti-tank missiles, 18 14.5-millimeter guns mounted on the backs of pickup trucks and 30 82-millimeter recoilless rifles. The weapons are all Soviet or Russian models but manufactured in other countries, he said.

“I’m telling you, this amount of weapons, once they are spread across the province [of Dara] is considered nothing,” the rebel commander said. “We need more than this to tip the balance or for there to even be a balance of power.”

U.S. officials said the Obama administration and its allies may supply anti-tank weapons to help the rebels destroy armored vehicles used by Assad forces. They are less likely to provide portable anti-aircraft missiles, which the rebels say they need to eliminate Assad’s warplanes. U.S. officials fear those missiles would fall into the hands of the Al Nusra front, the largest of the Islamist militias in the rebel coalition, which the U.S. regards as an Al Qaeda ally.

Secretary of State John F. Kerry is heading to Qatar on Saturday and will talk with other governments backing the rebels. A senior State Department official told reporters Friday that the talks would include discussions about coordinating deliveries of military aid.

CIA and White House officials declined to comment on the secret training programs. Other U.S. officials confirmed the training, but disputed some of the specific details provided by rebel commanders.

Brig. Gen. Yahya Bittar, who defected as a fighter pilot from Assad’s air force last year and is now head of intelligence for the Free Syrian Army, said training for the last month or so has taken place in Jordan.

The training, conducted by American, Jordanian and French operatives, involves rockets and anti-tank and anti-aircraft weaponry, he said.

Between 80 and 100 rebels from all over Syria have gone through the courses in the last month, he said, but training is continuing. Graduates are sent back across the border to rejoin the battle.

Bittar complained that sufficient weapons had yet to arrive for the rebel forces and said the Americans have not yet told them when they can expect to receive additional arms.

“Just promises, just promises,” he said.

Finally people starting to get that GCC basically running the show along with Turks, Jo and French. Others just fringe players.

Meanwhile the Saudi Finance ministry issued notice to all banks not to accept donations for the Syrian crisis until after Ramadan. lol.

Meanwhile, Egypt looks like headed for civil war.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 22 Jun 2013 01:36

Leaks like that invite terrorist attacks.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 22 Jun 2013 02:15

700 combat ready US troops to stay in Jo. I should stop saying anything coz the US is doing F all.

@natlsecuritycnn: WH informs Congress in letter 700 US troops in Jordan for military exercises are staying afterwards, joining other US forces already there

Syrian rebels say there's a new influx of weapons, eased by the US decision to arm them. http://t.co/t574YWZbik

@LizSly: A new wave of Sunni fighters converging on Syria in response to Hezbollah's role. It's becoming deeply sectarian http://t.co/mRlp9XiGi8

Mainly Egyptian

@LizSly: Iraq Shiites are ready to fight AQ "savages" in Syria, says Transport Minister Hadi al-Ameri of Badr-death squad fame http://t.co/xhMfd4QhPB

If anyone still had doubts whether Saudi was not already a nuclear power:

Ghauri's - message for the other countries. Picture of the deputy defence min on visit to the strategic missile forces of KSA

habal · Post by **habal** » 22 Jun 2013 08:16

>> A new wave of Sunni fighters converging on Syria in response to Hezbollah's role. It's becoming deeply sectarian

And they are too inexperienced and thus, they are not making it.

Let the pics speak:
Aleppo
Al-Saakhoor
FSA under bridge:
Click for Image (Graphic:NSFW/NSFH/NSFF)

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 22 Jun 2013 09:34

'There are no good guys among Syrian rebels' – UN commission chairman

It is impossible to choose unequivocally good guys among the groups of Syrian rebels and send weapons to them. This warning was voiced by chairman of the UN independent panel investigating possible violations of human rights in Syria Paulo Sergio Pinheiro on Friday.

Pinheiro says that it is impossible to guarantee this. After a private meeting of the panel at the UN Security Council he told journalists that there is no clear-cut difference between good and bad guys among the Syrian opposition. He warned that sending weapons to those considered to be good guys would not contribute to the settlement of the conflict but would trigger more violence and military crimes.

Pinheiro disagreed with the opinion that the use of chemical weapons in Syria is a red line after crossing which the international community has to use radical measures, such as providing one side of the conflict with weapons. He said that too many red lines have already been crossed in Syria. Using chemical weapons is a military crime but too many crimes against humanity and gross violations of human rights have already taken place. All this is enough for the Security Council to take measures to stop the violence, Pinheiro said.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 22 Jun 2013 09:41

shyamd wrote:Ghauri's - message for the other countries. Picture of the deputy defence min on visit to the strategic missile forces of KSA

The day Saudi seriously plans to acquire N weapons that day would be the time the King and his clan will face existanal threat from West , The West would look Saudi N weapons as a far bigger problem to itself then Iran.

Note the wiki leaks how it revels the extension of US intel penetration into Saudi upper echelon.

Most likely if Iran goes nuclear the west would guarantee Saudi some kind of nuclear protection and Israel perhaps would be allowed to go nuclear too.

Saudi has no nuclear reactor or enriching facility for Nukes so you cant expect them to have any nukes and expecting Paki to give to Saudi is a nice Tom Clancy stuff but West would ensure it doesnt happen at all.

habal · Post by **habal** » 22 Jun 2013 10:38

X-Post from Indian Coast Guard thread in tech forum

SSridhar wrote:ICG Helps Rescue 26 Crew from Shipwreck Near Yemen - New Indian Express

In a humanitarian gesture, the Indian Coast Guard (ICG) Mumbai, coordinated operations to help rescue 26 sailors from a massive container vessel which snapped into two and sank off Yemen, a top official said here Monday.

The incident happened early Monday, when the hull of the 316-metre-long cargo container ship - MV Mol Comfort - broke into two and the crew was forced to abandon it, said ICG Mumbai Commander S.P.S. Batra.

The tragedy occurred around 200 nautical miles from Yemen, and around 840 nautical miles west of Mumbai.

The ICG Mumbai immediately got down to rescuing the sailors from the rough seas, where waves rose to six metres and were accompanied by strong winds, Batra said.

Diverting vessels plying in the vicinity with its officials co-ordinating the opeations, the ICG helped to successfully rescue the 14 Filipino and 12 Russian crew from the MV Mol Comfort.

The doomed ship was carrying a cargo of 4,500 containers from Singapore to Jeddah.

The cause of the disaster, details of the ship's ownership and type of cargo on board were not immediately known.

Batra said that for the rescue efforts, the ICG Mumbai diverted three ships, MV Hanjin Beijing, MV Zim India and MV Yantian Express, the last of which was closest to the disaster site.

The MV Yantian Express managed to rescue all the crew which had escaped in two life rafts and one lifeboat. They are being now taken to Colombo, Sri Lanka.

The broken vessel sank shortly afterwards in the same position, with many containers scattered in the Arabian Sea, with an indeterminate quantity of oil spill.

Some details have emerged about the cargo of this ship. It was carrying US weapons for rebels and has sunk off the coast of Yemen.

AoA

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 22 Jun 2013 13:08

Austin wrote:
The day Saudi seriously plans to acquire N weapons that day would be the time the King and his clan will face existanal threat from West , The West would look Saudi N weapons as a far bigger problem to itself then Iran.

Note the wiki leaks how it revels the extension of US intel penetration into Saudi upper echelon.

Most likely if Iran goes nuclear the west would guarantee Saudi some kind of nuclear protection and Israel perhaps would be allowed to go nuclear too.

Saudi has no nuclear reactor or enriching facility for Nukes so you cant expect them to have any nukes and expecting Paki to give to Saudi is a nice Tom Clancy stuff but West would ensure it doesnt happen at all.

Look closer into the CSS-3 deal. As you can see they appear to have the Ghauri too. They have nukes and have their own indigenous program - which ain't going too well. You'll hear more in a report next month.

They also opt for US cover

Indian top guys are see KSA as a undeclared nuclear power

member_20292 · Post by **member_20292** » 22 Jun 2013 14:27

thus the iranian bumb is good for india.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 22 Jun 2013 15:48

shyamd wrote:Look closer into the CSS-3 deal. As you can see they appear to have the Ghauri too. They have nukes and have their own indigenous program - which ain't going too well. You'll hear more in a report next month.

They also opt for US cover

Indian top guys are see KSA as a undeclared nuclear power

Nothing substantial just heresy , You can easily bet who would be jumping first if ever there is a possibility of Saudi going nuke .......I mean a real possibility not heresy or propaganda.

Iran on the other hand is on far sound ground having every thing except the decision to go nuclear.

Next month as you have promised we will be hearing a lot of thing from Saudi so keeping my fingers crossed.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 22 Jun 2013 15:51

Thousands of Shi'ites ready to fight in Syria, Iraqi says

Thousands of Shi'ite Muslims from Iraq and beyond will take up arms against Sunni al Qaeda "savages" in Syria if fellow Shi'ites or their shrines come under attack again, a powerful minister in Iraq's Shi'ite-led government said.

It would be impossible to "sit idle while the Shi'ites are being attacked", while the United States and Western allies arm and finance the mainly Sunni rebels fighting against Syria's government, Hadi al-Amiri told Reuters in an interview.

Amiri, Iraq's transport minister, is head of the Badr Organisation, a political movement which arose from a heavily-armed Iran-trained militia and many of whose members are now part of Iraq's security forces.

Amiri said Shi'ites had been galvanized by the killing of around 60 members of their sect at the hands of Sunni insurgents in Syria's eastern province of Deir al-Zor earlier this month.

"If another attack against Shi'ites takes place similar to Deir al-Zor, or against the shrine of Sayyeda Zeinab, not only a handful of men, but thousands of Shi'ite men will go to fight alongside the regime and against al Qaeda and whoever backs al Qaeda," Amiri said.

"After Deir al-Zor, thousands of Shi'ite youths from Iraq and all over the world will head to fight in Syria. If 300 Lebanese Hezbollah fighters changed the equation in Syria, Iraqi young men will go to Syria to change it a hundred times over," Amiri said, referring to Hezbollah forces whose intervention enabled Assad loyalists retake the town of Qusair this month.

While it is unclear to what extent he is reflecting the views of the Maliki government, Amiri pulls no punches on Syria.

"Do you want us to sit idle while the Shi'ites are being attacked, while the Americans and the rest are helping them with weapons and money? What do you expect?"

He said young Iraqi volunteers are going to Syria via Beirut or flying from Baghdad to Damascus.

Asked whether the Iraqi government sponsors Shi'ite fighters across the border, Amiri compared the flow of Shi'ite fighters from Iraq to the influx of Sunni militants from Tunisia, Libya, Egypt and other Arab countries.

"As long as those governments say they are not aware (of fighters going to Syria) we also in the Iraqi government are unaware," he said, adding the official line that Iraqi fighters are not state-sponsored and they go to "protect their Shi'ite shrines".

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 22 Jun 2013 17:20

mahadevbhu wrote:thus the iranian bumb is good for india.

Why is it good for India?

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 22 Jun 2013 17:46

^^^^^
Because it'll keep Sunnis busy with Iran, rather than paying attention to India. TSP will feel squeezed

between the two.

member_20292 · Post by **member_20292** » 22 Jun 2013 18:37

^^

exactly. Saudi needs to be forced to cooperate with us tactically, and so does Iran.

The middle east is OUR backyard, and OUR playground. This is clear to anyone who has seen the cultural and historical linkages and the number of desis on ground there.

Time to make the kids play the way we want them to, by our rules.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 22 Jun 2013 18:48

Austin wrote: Nothing substantial just heresy , You can easily bet who would be jumping first if ever there is a possibility of Saudi going nuke .......I mean a real possibility not heresy or propaganda.

Iran on the other hand is on far sound ground having every thing except the decision to go nuclear.

Next month as you have promised we will be hearing a lot of thing from Saudi so keeping my fingers crossed.

See the CSS3 deal why they never disclosed it to congress. See the personal memoirs of the individuals involved in both sides. it will answer your question.

Report will be published next month by RUSI (it won't talk about the existing arsenal in their possession though).

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 22 Jun 2013 20:04

well, if the saudis launch any serious missile - i can't imagine the israeli's sitting there wondering what to do...

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 22 Jun 2013 20:20

KSA and Israel both being tighly controlled munna's thats not going to happen. most or all their armed forces would be rendered inoperable if the big boss stops spare parts. big boss also foots most of the IDF capex budget as a indirect subsidy to its own mil-ind complex for delivering products to israel.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 22 Jun 2013 20:25

Lalmohan wrote:well, if the saudis launch any serious missile - i can't imagine the israeli's sitting there wondering what to do...

They have had their confrontations after acquiring the CSS-3 and Saudis told them if we go to war we will use everything we have incl. the missiles - this was said when Washington was trying to get both sides to calm down. Later both sides said "Oh our air forces are just exercising". And Saudis told the US after we are not stupid enough to use them as we will lose everything.

Key thing here is that KSA is already a covert N power.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 22 Jun 2013 21:09

Austin, US looks other way when muunas acquire nukes. They have a long history of doing that. This is the fact that PRC uses to drive its own proliferation.

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 22 Jun 2013 23:31

shyamd wrote:
Lalmohan wrote:well, if the saudis launch any serious missile - i can't imagine the israeli's sitting there wondering what to do...
They have had their confrontations after acquiring the CSS-3 and Saudis told them if we go to war we will use everything we have incl. the missiles - this was said when Washington was trying to get both sides to calm down. Later both sides said "Oh our air forces are just exercising". And Saudis told the US after we are not stupid enough to use them as we will lose everything.

Key thing here is that KSA is already a covert N power.

I hope by "we" you're referring to the Saudis.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 22 Jun 2013 23:32

@Brown_Moses: Here's the first sighting of what appears to be a Chinese HJ-8 AT missile in Syria http://t.co/BmHqV7phYx

Mahendra · Post by **Mahendra** » 23 Jun 2013 02:51

If 'we' the aulaads of al saud are already a nook powah, why the bloody why are 'we' having diarrhoea and bacillary dysentery over Iran onlee? also, why would we want to make Kaffir India soopah powah?

Surya · Post by **Surya** » 23 Jun 2013 04:41

I hope by "we" you're referring to the Saudis.

no identity crisis

Mahendra wrote:If 'we' the aulaads of al saud are already a nook powah, why the bloody why are 'we' having diarrhoea and bacillary dysentery over Iran onlee? also, why would we want to make Kaffir India soopah powah?

sigh - there you go again - asking logical questions - what wrong with you?? let the delusions flow my friend

Surya · Post by **Surya** » 23 Jun 2013 07:34

Singha wrote:KSA and Israel both being tighly controlled munna's thats not going to happen. most or all their armed forces would be rendered inoperable if the big boss stops spare parts. big boss also foots most of the IDF capex budget as a indirect subsidy to its own mil-ind complex for delivering products to israel.

the diff being that Israel has enough support in khanland across the parties that would look after its interests than Khan interests

where else do you see parties greeting the Israeli PM as he railed and lectured the US president

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 23 Jun 2013 11:45

UN: Impossible to determine Syria chemical attack perpetrator even with US evidence

"We are not able to say who has used chemical agents or chemical weapons and we are very worried about the chain of custody of the substances," Pinheiro told reporters after an informal meeting with UN Security Council ambassadors.

Pinheiro's commission said in a report published this month that there were "reasonable grounds to believe that chemical agents have been used as weapons".

"Allegations have been received concerning the use of chemical weapons by both parties," said the commission, adding that "the majority concern their use by government forces."

Pinheiro believes that a "diplomatic surge" is needed to resolve the long-standing conflict, which has left more than 93,000 dead, according to UN figures.

"We've received quantities of new types of weapons, including some that we asked for and that we believe will change the course of the battle on the ground," FSA media spokesman Louay Muqdad said. We have begun distributing them on the front lines, they will be in the hands of professional officers and FSA fighters," he said.

"Why supply weapons to militant forces in Syria when we are not sure of the composition of these groups?” he said Friday at the Economic Forum, adding that it remains unclear where these arms will end up.

"If the United States ... recognizes one of the key Syrian opposition organizations, al-Nusra, as terrorist ... how can one deliver arms to those opposition members? … Where will (those weapons) end up? What role will they play?" Putin said, arguing that a quick exit by President Bashar Assad would create a dangerous power vacuum.

Earlier on Friday, Pinheiro warned that sending more weapons into Syria would lead to more war crimes. "States that provide arms have responsibilities in terms of the eventual use of those arms to commit ... war crimes or crimes against humanity," Pinheiro said.

habal · Post by **habal** » 23 Jun 2013 13:52

Jabhat al-Nusra commits another unspeakable act in Aleppo that has the populace afire with rage. They have killed a handicapped boy because some foreign terrorist identified him as the antichrist

source:

Saudi regime forces have killed a 19 year-old boy during a raid on the houses of anti-regime activists in the At Tubi area of Saudi Arabia’s eastern region of Qatif.

(Ahlul Bayt News Agency) – Saudi regime forces have killed a 19 year-old boy during a raid on the houses of anti-regime activists in the At Tubi area of Saudi Arabia’s eastern region of Qatif.

‘Ali Hassan al Mahrous’, 19, was martyred yesterday night when Saudi forces shot him one in shoulder and 2 bullets in the head. He was from village of Alkhoeldeh of Saudi Arabia’s eastern region of Qatif.

http://www.babulilmlibrary.com/news/201 ... -in-qatif/

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 23 Jun 2013 15:14

Jordan's PM has expanded on the presence of 900 US military personnel in his country: 200 are deployed as a CW reaction force and the remaining 700 are manning PAC-3 SAMs and F-16 fighter jets, which will be used in the case that the #Syria conflict "worsens".

Talk that all sorts of weapons have arrived incl. Tanks to give them more offensive fire power.

FT.com... Subscription only

Nice summary of whats going on now

Saudi Arabia increases supply of arms to Syria rebels

By Abeer Allam and Michael Peel in Abu Dhabi and Hugh Carnegy in Paris
©Reuters
Saudi Arabia appears to be pushing ahead with a policy of deeper military intervention against President Bashar al-Assad’s Syrian regime, despite continued US scepticism.
Riyadh considers the armed opposition in urgent need of help because of a series of military reverses that suggest Iran and its allies are winning the two year civil war raging in Syria, say analysts who traditionally reflect Saudi official thinking.

For the past three months, Saudi Arabia has been shopping for anti-aircraft and anti-tank missiles on behalf of the Syrian rebels, two well-informed Saudi observers said.
“The Saudis are very frustrated at the Americans’ ad hoc intelligence sharing and reluctance to supply the rebels ,” said one Saudi analyst close to Saudi decision makers.
Signs of Saudi Arabia’s growing intervention come as representatives of 11 nations in the so-called Friends of Syria group prepare to meet in Doha on Saturday and discuss how to co-ordinate military and other aid to rebels trying to oust Mr Assad.
Saudi Arabia, which competes with Iran for regional influence, considers the Syrian conflict a direct threat to its national security, with its potential to strengthen an alliance between powerful Shia elements in a string of countries stretching from Iran to Lebanon, via Iraq and Syria.
”Saudi Arabia will not allow an Iranian victory in Syria,” Jamal Khashoggi, a Saudi analyst close to decision-making circles, wrote recently. ”Saudi Arabia has to do something now, even if it will do it alone. The goal now must be toppling Bashar, even if the US is not involved. If Saudi Arabia leads the way, Sunni tribes and other countries, including France, will eventually join.”
France, concerned that Syrian opposition forces are losing ground, has suggested it is ready to push ahead with increasing the scale of equipment it supplies to the rebels, but it remains coy on what weapons it may be prepared to include.
Officials said this week that Paris had already “ticked the boxes” of materiel it was willing to deliver on a list presented to the Friends of Syria members by the Free Syrian Army. But they declined to say what these included.
Asked if France would go ahead with the supply of lethal arms if the US and the UK did not, a senior official said: “It makes no sense for us to supply arms by ourselves.”
But another official implied it was possible that the three countries could opt for different options in choosing from the FSA list, which ranged from sophisticated weapons systems to non lethal supplies.
Saudi Arabia, which along with Qatar has long supplied limited quantities of weapons to the rebels, has made no official statement about its Syria policy. While the comments being made publicly by state-sanctioned analysts and media could be simply to test the international reaction to the idea of deeper military involvement, the strategic aggression against Iranian influence is striking and contrasts with the official congratulations offered to Hassan Rohani on his election win in Iran last week.
Riyadh has become increasingly alarmed after the Lebanese Shia militant group Hizbollah played a critical role in defeating Syrian rebels in the central town of Qusair earlier this month, prompting the Syrian regime to promise an offensive to retake full control over the biggest city, Aleppo.
The senior French official said Syrian regime forces had been boosted by “several thousand” Hizbollah troops from Lebanon who were not just involved in the recent recapture of Qusair but were also present in the Damascus suburbs, and were being moved to Aleppo and the south.
He said there was “no doubt” that “several hundred” Iraqi Shia fighters were also involved, as well as Iranian advisers, and added that rebels were losing ground in the south and there was real anxiety about the situation in the Damascus suburbs.
“Time is pressing. We need to move rapidly to give the means to the FSA to prevent them being overtaken by the regime.”
However, Laurent Fabius, France’s foreign minister, said more assurances were required on the destination of any weaponry before giving the green light for arms supplies.
“There is no question of delivering weapons in conditions that we aren’t sure about and that means we won’t deliver weapons so that they are turned against us,” he said on Thursday.

Paki made HJ8 copies anti tank weapons etc are being bought too...

I am told these deliveries by Saudi is just one part of the escalation there is still more to come

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 23 Jun 2013 17:56

FT says Pentagon and Obama are both against military intervention in Syria. Kerry has no chance against this combination.

Obama v Kerry: the new dividing line in US foreign policy

Obama v Kerry: the new dividing line in US foreign policy

June 21, 2013 6:30 pm

By Geoff Dyer in Washington

When Barack Obama asked John Kerry to be his secretary of state, the president appeared to have chosen someone whose instincts matched his own caution on foreign affairs.

A Vietnam veteran who spent nearly three decades in the Senate, Mr Kerry mocked Republican “neocons” at last year’s Democratic convention. At his confirmation hearing he cited a Henry Kissinger quote about a new era of emerging powers replacing superpower dominance.

Yet after five months in office, it is becoming clearer that the principal dividing line in the Obama administration’s foreign policy, from Syria to the Israel-Palestinian peace process, is between the president and Mr Kerry.

While administration officials have acknowledged for some time that the state department was urging more US involvement in the Syrian conflict, the extent of the disagreements became sharper this week when Bloomberg columnist Jeffrey Goldberg reported that Mr Kerry had argued “vociferously” for US air strikes against Syrian airfields at a White House meeting.

For all the talk about ideological divisions between humanitarian intervention and realism, or about the promotion of supposed liberal hawks Susan Rice and Samantha Power, arguments within the administration often boil down to Mr Obama and Mr Kerry’s personal perceptions about how and when America should exercise its influence.

Mr Obama’s view of the Middle East reflects a Hippocratic instinct to first do no harm and his desire that after Afghanistan and Iraq, the US does not rush into “one more war in the Middle East”, as he put it this week. For the president, second term political capital is something that has to be dispersed carefully – whether on getting involved in the Syrian conflict or backing a new round of the Israel-Palestinian peace process.

Critics add that when faced with a problem that offers no good answers, the professorial president tends to split the difference – ordering a surge of troops in Afghanistan and announcing their departure date at the same time; authorising the arming of Syria rebels but not the weapons they say they need.

For Mr Kerry, who ran for president in 2004, he is now doing the other job he has long coveted and realises that this is probably his last chance to hold high office. He has spent a large part of his time over the past five months travelling around the Middle East dealing with both the Syrian war and the peace process.

“For John, it is now or never,” says one former close associate. “He wants to get things done.”

On Syria, the internal debate has pitted the state department against the Pentagon, whose deep reluctance to get more involved is largely shared by Mr Obama. State department officials have argued that peace talks have little chance with the rebels losing ground on the battlefield to government forces. And after the president publicly warned that use of chemical weapons was a “red line”, they suggest that it damages US credibility if the administration does not follow through.

“It is not just adversaries like the Iranians,” says one former state department official. “What will allies like the Japanese make of our rhetoric in the Middle East?”

At the same time, the Pentagon makes no secret of its distaste for any military options in Syria. General Martin Dempsey, the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, has questioned whether it is possible to give arms to only the “moderate” rebels.

“I have been cautious about the application of the military instrument of power,” he said last month. “It is not clear to me that it would produce the outcome [that most of us desire]”

Weary after more than a decade of wars and facing a new round of budget cuts, the military fears that any modest involvement now will probably pull it more deeply into the conflict.

David Barno, a retired lieutenant general who commanded 20,000 troops in Afghanistan, says when Kabul fell in late 2001, there were only 400 Americans on the ground in the country.

“No one in their wildest imaginations would have imagined that more than a decade later there would still be 68,000 US soldiers there,” says Lt Gen Barno, now at the Center for a New American Security think-tank. “Both Iraq and Afghanistan sobered a lot of people in the military about our ability to extricate ourselves from a conflict, especially when there are so many other regional actors involved.”

Mr Kerry has been equally energetic in trying to revive the Israel-Palestinian peace process and will be back in the region next week to try to prepare the ground for more talks. While analysts are sceptical about the prospects for the talks, they also say Mr Kerry’s efforts will come to naught if he does not get strong public backing from the president.

“The White House has been passive while State wants to get engaged,” says Vali Nasr, a former state department official who is now the dean of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. “It is still not clear if the White House will support a plan that would require a substantial US commitment, including the direct engagement of the president.”

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 23 Jun 2013 18:33

There is only 2 solutions to the conflict - Military defeating one side or political negotiations. So they are trying to set the stage for political negotiations. I can't see Asad leaving, otherwise he would have done it by now. If Geneva 2 fails then likelyhood is that gloves will come off unless Russia ask him to step aside - can't see that happening either.

Interesting if true
Vladimir Putin may allow Assad to go if power vacuum in Syria is avoided

British hopeful that peace talks to end civil war can go ahead, but divided Syrian opposition remains a big stumbling block

Patrick Wintour, political editor
The Guardian, Tuesday 18 June 2013 21.22 BST

Vladimir Putin with G8 leaders. The Russian leader has agreed to let President Assad of Syria go on certain conditions. Photograph: Stefan Rousseau/AFP/Getty Images

The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, is willing to see the removal of the Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad, but only if it leads to a balanced government and not a dangerous power vacuum of the kind that followed Saddam Hussein's removal in Iraq, British officials believe after two days of intensive talks at the G8 summit.

Putin blocked any reference in the subsequent communique to the removal of Assad, but British officials believe the talks have opened the way for a peace settlement if more can be done to organise the Syrian opposition forces politically and militarily.

Talks over the terms of the communique lasted until 3am. The Russians accepted the need for UN weapons inspectors to visit Syria to check on western claims that Assad has used chemical weapons.

But Putin flatly refused to have any reference in the communiqué to the nature of delegations that should be sent to the planned Geneva peace conference, insisting that this was a matter for both sides.

British officials insisted that in private Putin had declared no personal allegiance to Assad, but needed assurances that Syria would not turn into an ungoverned space on Russia's borders if he were removed. David Cameron in his press conference at the end of the summit made repeated calls for Assad's allies to realise that a strong army and security state would be preserved during a transition, words designed to reassure them that they would have a future after Assad.

British officials admitted that the Syrian opposition was still a work in progress. They had been unable to agree a negotiating mandate for a new peace conference.

The G8 communique made no reference to Assad, but called for peace talks to be resumed as soon as possible. Cameron said the main breakthrough was an agreement that a transitional government with executive powers was needed, together with a deal to call for an investigation into chemical weapons use. "We remain committed to achieving a political solution to the crisis based on a vision for a united, inclusive and democratic Syria," the final communique read. "We strongly endorse the decision to hold as soon as possible the Geneva conference on Syria."

Putin struck a defiant tone in public, telling the west that sending weapons to rebels could backfire one day, while he defended his own military contacts with the Syrian government.

"There are different types of supplies. We supply weapons based on legal contracts to a legal government … And if we sign these contracts [in the future], we will supply [more arms]."

In the final document, G8 leaders also called on the Syrian authorities and the opposition to commit to destroying all organisations affiliated with al-Qaida, a reflection of growing concern in the west that Islamist militants are playing a more dominant role in the rebel ranks.

Cameron, who chaired the summit, said separately after the talks that the west believed strongly that there was no place for Assad in a future Syria. "It is unthinkable that President Assad can play any part in the future of his country. He has blood on his hands. You can't imagine a Syria where this man continues to rule having done such awful things to his people."

He appealed to Assad's acolytes to abandon the president, insisting the need for the retention of a strong security force showed they would have a future role in Syria. He said the aim was "to learn the lessons of Iraq by ensuring the key institutions of the state are maintained through the transition and there is no vacuum. To those who have been loyal to Assad but who know he has to go and who want stability in their country, they should take note of this point."

In the house of Commons, John Bercow, the speaker, said it would be "undemocratic and inappropriate" if the government declined to hold a full parliamentary vote if ministers decide to arm the Syrian opposition. The speaker issued his warning after William Hague told MPs that the government would consult parliament but declined to explain the nature of the vote.

Bercow told the former Labour minister Peter Hain, who raised the matter on a point of order: "I have the sense that the government are hinting that they would not dream of executing a policy decision of the kind that is being considered without first seeking a debate in the house and a vote on a substantive motion. That would obviously be the democratic course. I think it is the democratic course on a substantive motion that the government have in mind. I am not sure that there was any other idea ever in their mind, but I feel sure that if it was in their mind, it was speedily expunged as undemocratic and inappropriate."

Russia's deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, speaking on the sidelines, said earlier that any debate about Assad's role in the resolution of the conflict was unthinkable, adding he would not tolerate an outcome that led to Assad's capitulation. "This would be not just unacceptable for the Russian side, but we are convinced that it would be utterly wrong, harmful and would completely upset the political balance," Ryabkov said.

In a further development, the French president, François Hollande, opened the door to Iran attending a Syria peace conference, but reiterated that there was no future for Assad.

Paris had previously ruled out Iran taking part in the proposed conference, saying Tehran had no desire for peace, but a new Iranian president, Hassan Rouhani, was elected on Friday.

"There will no future for Syria with Assad. The Russians are not yet ready to say or write it, but when we speak of transition ... it's difficult to see how he (Assad) could be responsible for it," Hollande said.British officials said they did not rule out Iran attending talks, but needed to know more about the new president and what he would do about the Iranian-backed Hezbollah forces in Syria.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 23 Jun 2013 18:35

yah, the Sunni jihadi sympathizers of the world must be reassured : lookee lookee, don't be scared by Putin's growling. He will not add to the strength of Assad. Even jihadis need morale boosters of a more substantive nature than fatwas to rape freely.

Surya · Post by **Surya** » 23 Jun 2013 19:20

in what retarded world the gloves are not off??

syria is destroyed for all practical purposes.

Virupaksha · Post by **Virupaksha** » 24 Jun 2013 03:46

So finally after more than a year of saying that they will throw out Assad, the islamic alliance of US after two years might enter later this year ??

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 24 Jun 2013 08:10

shyamd wrote:These are militants based in North West Yemen on the border with Saudi. They waged a big war in 2004 - 2009/10. They are a sect known as Zaidi - which is supposedly an offshoot of Shia islam.
They started off with fight against Yemeni military and then Saudis intervened.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shia_insurgency_in_Yemen

Saudis didn't fair well - the regular army was rescued by other units - I think SANG. TSPAF were helping the RSAF in air operations. Although majority of operations were led by the ground forces.

It was this failure that led the Saudis to ask India to help teach them Mountain warfare and set up a school there.

Didn't Yemen or a part of it have a communist government for a time? I don't remember seeing too much discussion of pure commie memes (as opposed to the Baathist nasserite memes) in the arab world. It would be instructive if some of the gurus could elucidate on this aspect, and maybe give some thoughts as to the possibility of using communism as a lever to undermine the salafi stranglehold.