2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

[amit]

All this arguing on this board has not changed one mind, one way or the other. Personally I understand the issue but I fear this nuclear demon. If we are not careful or even if we are careful it has the potential to devour us. All this blithe talk about acceptable radiation levels is just that talk. No one can guarantee that a 1/millionth gram speck of plutonium will not find its way into your lungs where it can prove fatal. That is all it would take. In such aerosolized form 10 kg of Plutonium is enough to kill every last human on earth. That is its true potential.

It is wise to fear it.

Theo,

Yes it is wise to fear it and even respect it. But is it wise to turn the fear into paranoia?

Sure 1/millionth gram speck of Pu in your lungs can kill you but so can pollution from dirty coal-fired power plants that find your way to your lung or the cigarette smoke that goes into your lungs because your co-worker smokes.

You have a better chance of surviving an accident when traveling in a bus or train than if you were in a plane that went down. Yet would you stop taking a plane the next time you visit Delhi because of this fear?

It's been statistically proven that you've got a higher chance of being run over while crossing the street than dying from a plane crash. Similarly all the statistics bandied about here has shown that, while death is certain in case of the 1/millionth dose you talked about the probability of that speck of Pu finding its way into your lung is much lower than much larger quantities of Co2 doing the same damage to your lung.

So unless, as Guru Prabhu suggested (and got warned for it) we go back to a Vedic lifestyle where the fuel of choice is cowdung cakes, we have to take our chances. We can't pitch for a 9-10 per cent growth and then say we're too scared about nuclear power and much prefer dirty coal-fired power plants for high base load generation.

It boils down to choices. But that choice should be made not in panic or paranoia but with informed opinion and discussion.

As far as Fukushima, the concrete tomb and permanent evacuation zone point has been reached. They should get on with it rather than futzing around. There shouldn't be anymore workers walking around in there.

I'm sorry but that stage has not been reached and is unlikely to be reached. Even the most avid doom and gloom report on Fukushima has not mentioned or indicated anywhere that the concrete tomb option needs to be taken, save of course that ex-Chernobyl boss scoring some brownie points within the first few days of this incident.

[amit]

The Guardian report quoting Richard Lahey was posted on the previous page.

Even if we take the worst case scenario as speculated by him, Fukushima is no Chernobyl so comparisons with that is alarmist in nature.

This is what he said:

At least part of the molten core, which includes melted fuel rods and zirconium alloy cladding, seemed to have sunk through the steel "lower head" of the pressure vessel around reactor two, Lahey said.

"The indications we have, from the reactor to radiation readings and the materials they are seeing, suggest that the core has melted through the bottom of the pressure vessel in unit two, and at least some of it is down on the floor of the drywell," Lahey said. "I hope I am wrong, but that is certainly what the evidence is pointing towards." {A qualifying statement}

The major concern when molten fuel breaches a containment vessel is that it reacts with the concrete floor of the drywell underneath, releasing radioactive gases into the surrounding area. At Fukushima, the drywell has been flooded with seawater, which will cool any molten fuel that escapes from the reactor and reduce the amount of radioactive gas released.

Lahey said: "It won't come out as one big glob; it'll come out like lava, and that is good because it's easier to cool."

The drywell is surrounded by a secondary steel-and-concrete structure designed to keep radioactive material from escaping into the environment. But an earlier hydrogen explosion at the reactor may have damaged this.

"The reason we are concerned is that they are detecting water outside the containment area that is highly radioactive and it can only have come from the reactor core," Lahey added. "It's not going to be anything like Chernobyl, where it went up with a big fire and steam explosion, but it's not going to be good news for the environment."

[arnab]

No one can guarantee that a 1/millionth gram speck of plutonium will not find its way into your lungs where it can prove fatal. That is all it would take. In such aerosolized form 10 kg of Plutonium is enough to kill every last human on earth. That is its true potential.

It is wise to fear it.

Theo, I see your point. As far as I see it, our 3 stage cycle will use (and produce) plutonium. Our weapons are plutonium based. Various estimates of our plutonium stockpile abound from 100 kg to 500 kg. The 4 FBRs that are coimg up have been estimated (by Ramanna and Glaser) to produce 700 kg of weapons grade plutonium every year beyond 2020.

So in that sense - we are all dead men walking.

I would rather we respect, learn and improve this technology and use it for our betterment (and security) rather than merely fear it.

Yes radiation in the Chernobyl basement will last a long time (I believe they are building a sarcophagus to cover it), but then the coal mines under Jharia have been on fire since the last 80 odd years. Nobody asks us to stop mining coal - though the risks are greater.

[Sanku]

That too when the writing was on the wall, pretty much.

Sanku,

The writing has been on the wall for a long time. The 'experts' can talk till they are blue in the face. The public expects zero increase in radiation by a nuclear plant. Not 10%, not 5%, but 0%.

What goes against the experts by public is that, they seem to play fast and loose with calculations and models. On this thread itself we have seen cases where flawed models with flawed assumptions were used over and over again in spite of real world evidence showing that those models were simply wrong. The above statement has been seen for Tsunami predictions as well as health issues due to radioactivity.

So it seems "experts" come in two varieties, one whose views seem to help Nuclear power companies make more money by deliberately underplaying risk and over playing benefits -- these get heard 99% of the time, for obvious reasons. Only when the yellow matter hits the fan, we hear of other more robust and detailed studies contradicting industry experts.

No wonder Nuclear is looked with such suspicion. The experts have destroyed their own credibility.

[arnab]

No wonder Nuclear is looked with such suspicion. The experts have destroyed their own credibility.

I thought this was true of any field - from economics to medicine to weapons design to global warming. Why do nuke experts get singled out?

[amit]

No wonder Nuclear is looked with such suspicion.

By whom? Greenpeace?

[Theo_Fidel]

It boils down to choices. But that choice should be made not in panic or paranoia but with informed opinion and discussion.

It is good to be a little paranoiac about the nuclear demon.

To be honest I don't know the answer. No one wants to go back to the vedas but in our quest of 9% growth might we make mistakes that come back to devour us. There is plenty of Solar and Wind energy yet to be tapped. It scares me sh*tless that both Kalpakkam and Koodankulam are on the sea shore.

I just know that what the 'experts' don't know and how they fumble about with no solutions in an emergency scares me. Fire truck spraying water appears to be the best they came up with. Really, all those drills and thats the best. They havn't even taken a proper picture of the insides yet.

WRT to the Sodium reactor going up in Kalpakkam, we would not even be able to use water in case of a breech as the Sodium itself would explode.

[Sanku]

No wonder Nuclear is looked with such suspicion. The experts have destroyed their own credibility.

I thought this was true of any field - from economics to medicine to weapons design to global warming. Why do nuke experts get singled out?

Because the stakes are by far the highest. A single mistake does more damage than a year of fraud bankers at wall street.

[Sanku]

I just know that what the 'experts' don't know and how they fumble about with no solutions in an emergency scares me. Fire truck spraying water appears to be the best they came up with. Really, all those drills and thats the best. They havn't even taken a proper picture of the insides yet..

Experts at work, banana calculations ongoing.

http://twitter.com/Reuters

FLASH: Japan nuclear plant operator: unclear how seawater around Fukushima plant became radioactive

Wow, really now!! Who would have thunk it?

And oh---

FLASH: Japan nuclear operator: inevitable will need to scrap reactors 1,2,3,4

What were they waiting for?

[vina]

we hear of other more robust and detailed studies contradicting industry experts

Ah. Lets see examples of "robust and detailed studies" and the conclusions there of.

1) 1.25cups = 1 bucket of water.
2) Chernobyl resulted in 850,000 deaths!
3) There was a Tsunami of 38meters at Fukushima recorded earlier (pray, I would like to see when), and so the plant design was underestimated in Tsunami wave.
4) Since there was a 38meter Tsunami, the plant design should have catered to that. (ok what should the height of design be, 40m, 45m, or 500 m or whatever X ?)
5) Given whatever X the "robust and detailed studies" came up with in point 4, we the "robust and detailed studiers" guarantee absolutely (100% probability) that there will be no more than what we came up as X m for the flooding height.
6) We "robust and detailed studiers" in the twink of an eye and a search in Ukal Googal and Wikpedia concluded that there is NO tsunami and earthquake risk in the West Coast. There are no plate movements, no tectonics.. (Hmm does that mean that ALL the nuke plants planned for the coasts in India should be located between Guj and Kerala only?)
7) We "robust and detailed studiers" confess absolutely and openly that know nothing about this field, have no clue about fluid mechanics/wave/hydrodynamics, and /or nuclear engg and physics,are fundamentally ignorant, but still despite putting our foot in the mouths hundreds of times, will repeatedly keep bleating endlessly some fundamentally wrong and factually incorrect stuff.

Despite the record in point 7), we have the gumption and chutzpah to call people who actually have a background in some of these areas, know what they are talking about and have actually worked hands on in a number of those areas as "ill-informed" because only we the "robust and detailed studiers" have an Unkal called Googal and Wikipedia that we access on a sole basis and they can't and dont even know it exists.

9) In case you didnt know there was a 500m Tsunami in an enclosed gorge in Alaska when a glacier fell into a lake in the valley below. Hence for coastal areas around the world, you should plan for 500m Tsunamis because there could a glacier the size of a 10th of the Antartic continent that falls off the cliffs of Indonesia /Iran/Saudi Arabia/Madagascar etc and generate such a wave. (hello.. ice melts at 0 c ?)


10) And at the end of points 1 to 9 , we will straight away go and claim that "We, the robust and detailed studiers" , all along concluded before hand, what the "establishment cheaters of fraudulent estimates" finally came to conclude!

And oh, if this doesn't get laughed out of a high school science class, I don't know what will and you expect folks to take these posts seriously!

[amit]

There is plenty of Solar and Wind energy yet to be tapped.

Solar and Wind are great for high peak load generation. But that's underpinned by baseload and only nuclear and coal can do that. So it is indeed a question about choices.

It scares me sh*tless that both Kalpakkam and Koodankulam are on the sea shore.

All available news about Fukushima have shown that following the earthquake, which was 7-8 times higher than what was supposed to be design tolerance of those 40-year-old reactors, the normal shutdown procedures kicked and the neutron rods were inserted into the fuel. It is most likely that if the tsunami did not do the damage it did or the plant was located further in land (there's no reason to position a nuclear power plant near the sea) then all this may not have happened.

Why this relevant to Kalpakkam and Koodankulam is because what's the probability of a earthquake of 9.0 magnitude with an epicenter within 150km radius of the plants and a killer tsunami striking these plant in tandem? And remember these are modern plants with much more safety features built in.

Irrational fear or paranoia would not make you more safe. It's the same example of traveling in a train as opposed to a plane.

[Sanku]

Sorry for putting a dated article but its not that real scientists did not know that there was a issue (and not all of us keep our eyes covered by vessel of gold)

Leuren Moret is a geoscientist who worked at the Lawrence Livermore Nuclear Weapons Laboratory on the Yucca Mountain Project, and became a whistle-blower in 1991 by reporting science fraud on the project and at Livermore. She is an independent and international radiation specialist, and the Environmental Commissioner in the city of Berkeley, Calif. She has visited Japan four times to work with Japanese citizens, scientists and elected officials on radiation and peace issues. She can be contacted at [email protected]

http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/ ... 523x2.html


Sunday, May 23, 2004

Japan's deadly game of nuclear roulette

Of all the places in all the world where no one in their right mind would build scores of nuclear power plants, Japan would be pretty near the top of the list.

That was the first line of the report, certainly did not mince words.

"I think the situation right now is very scary," says Katsuhiko Ishibashi, a seismologist and professor at Kobe University. "It's like a kamikaze terrorist wrapped in bombs just waiting to explode."

Remember this is a 2004 article.

Additionally, but not even mentioned by ERC officials, there is an extreme danger of an earthquake causing a loss of water coolant in the pools where spent fuel rods are kept.

Wow!! Moral of the story -- Science does work, when it focuses on reality than feeding public pipe dreams and lies.

All predicted in 2004!!

Like the former Soviet Union after Chernobyl, Japan will become a country suffering from radiation sickness destroying future generations, and widespread contamination of agricultural areas will ensure a public-health disaster. Its economy may never recover.

[Sanku]

Honesty helps

[abhishek_sharma]

Japan Weighs Nationalizing TEPCO

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/30/busin ... tepco.html

[Lalmohan]

theo - i don't disagree with the need for scepticism, however i think it needs to be rational and not hysterical. nuclear power has many dangers, but so do other forms of power generation. i am sure that when we have fusion power plants, they will have highly dangerous plasma torus' etc., which will come with their own fears. sure there is plenty of potential for solar and other forms of power, but at the moment - the technology to extract them economically is not mature. whilst we should continue with research into those fields, we cannot just abandon the nuclear genie - it is out of the bottle - and it must be tamed.
given the sheer scale of devastation of the quake and tsunami i find the containment of the crisis at fukushima to be admirable. no one here is under any illusion about how dangerous a situation it is, however we need to really understand what is going on rather than go off at random tangents and blather incoherently

should india invest in nuclear energy - my vote - yes
is it safe? not enough - more work needs to be done

but that is true for almost every scientific and engineering endeavour

[somnath]

IAEA updates on the fallout..

http://www.iaea.or.at/newscenter/news/t ... ate01.html

Concentrations reported for both, plutonium-238 and plutonium-239/240 are similar to those deposited in Japan as a result of the testing of nuclear weapons. The ratio of the concentrations of plutonium-238 and plutonium-239/240 in two of the samples indicate that very small amounts of plutonium might have been released during the Fukushima accident, but this requires to be further clarified.

As far as food contamination is concerned, 63 samples taken from 24 - 29 March, and reported on from 27 - 29 March, for various vegetables, fruit (strawberries), mushrooms, eggs, seafood and pasteurized milk in eight prefectures (Chiba, Fukushima, Gunma, Ibaraki, Miyagi, Niigata, Tochigi and Yamagata), stated that results for iodine-131, caesium-134 and caesium-137 were either not detected or were below the regulation values set by the Japanese authorities.

First analyses were reported in fish carried out by the National Research Institute of Fishery Research. 5 samples of fish were collected from the port of Choshi (Chiba prefecture) and 4 of 5 samples showed Cs-137 concentrations below limit of detection. In one sample Cs-137 was found with 3 Bq/kg (fresh weight) and it was reported that it was slightly above the limit of detection. This concentration is far below any concern for fish consumption.

The other thing about the IAEA updates - these are extremely professional in tenor, dont underplay or overplay the threat, and stick to the facts...If anything, partial to being cautious - mark the opening line...No subjective "opinion" expressed.

[Sanku]

however we need to really understand what is going on rather than go off at random tangents and blather incoherently

No more Banana's and Lalchix then? Good good.


=====================

On a serious note ---

What exactly is admirable is the approach of first shooting yourself in the chest and then congratulating on missing the heart and only ending up with some loss of blood?

Fukushima is NOT a natural disaster. It is a man made disaster, based on deliberate murder of science to serve ends.

There was enough whistleblowing that the situation is precarious and only a matter of time, If not when.

So yes, considering that the question was if not when and despite that they kept going, they have certainly handled it well enough that the radiation has been spread through water rather than burning fuel in air. (This btw is a sarcastic comment on the Japanese govt and TEPCO, which are practically same and not any poster.)

[Lalmohan]

Honesty helps

oh it really does... intellectual, professional, personal, moral... all of the above

[Sanku]

The other thing about the IAEA updates - these are extremely professional in tenor, dont underplay or overplay the threat, and stick to the facts...If anything, partial to being cautious - mark the opening line...No subjective "opinion" expressed.

IAEA updates are USELESS, by their own admission they are ONLY repeating the data given to them by the Japanese. They have ZERO observes on grounds to make their own data collection. They are singularly unequipped. They should limit themselves to making trouble for Iran.

IAEA's complete hollowness has been totally exposed. They are nothing but snoops to make sure countries are not making bums without unkil knowing. Even which I wonder if they do well.

Twitter based site updating TEPCOs reading are doing the job better than IAEA.

[Lalmohan]

They have ZERO observes on grounds to make their own data collection. They are singularly unequipped.

oh really, then what are the two IAEA monitoring teams doing in Japan? Having green tea with the emperor?

[amit]

Honesty helps

Why should anyone be surprised that Sanku Maharaja thinks Leuren Moret to be an Oracle.

Here's a few samples of what Unkal Googal says about Ms Moret.

Leuren Moret, Doug Rokke and Others Mislead Public on Depleted Uranium

And see this

ndependent scientist Leuren Moret, whose 2004 landmark article in the Japan Times unmasked lies and distortions by government and company officials that led to the construction of nuclear power plants {sounds familiar?} in seismically dangerous areas, has declared in an exclusive 65-minute video interview with Alfred Lambremont Webre that the “Japan earthquake and “accidents” at the Fukushima’s 6 nuclear power plant units starting March 11, 2011 are in fact deliberate acts of tectonic nuclear warfare, carried out against the populations ecology of Japan and the nations of the Northern Hemisphere, including the U.S., Canada, and Mexico.

Birds of the same feather eh Sanku?

Added later: I just saw this gem posted by Sanku.

Fukushima is NOT a natural disaster. It is a man made disaster, based on deliberate murder of science to serve ends.

Note he is actually parroting the nonsense being sprouted by Madam Moret.

This is becoming a circus.

[vina]

And oh, one more brilliant point put forward by the "robust and detailed studiers", I forgot to include in my earlier post. Pliss to include as 11th point.

11) The reason why the Japanese have not entombed the Fukushima reactors yet in a concrete burkha like in Chernobyl is because that will mean an Equal-Equal of the Americans with the Russians, which Japan as an American ally is desperately trying to avoid.

Now, of course, we reached the same conclusions as the "nuclear establishment" as the "establishment scientist cheaters" (if they finally decide to entomb the Fukushima reactors in concrete) by our very very soup-e-rear Russian/American equal equal analysis!

[Sanku]

They have ZERO observes on grounds to make their own data collection. They are singularly unequipped.

oh really, then what are the two IAEA monitoring teams doing in Japan? Having green tea with the emperor?

Almost yes.

http://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/201 ... 60311.html

Two IAEA teams are currently monitoring in Japan. One team made gamma-dose rate measurements in Tokyo and the south of Tokyo in the prefecture of Kanagawa. Gamma-dose rates ranged from 0.05 to 0.2 microsievert. Another monitoring team made additional measurements at distances of 23 to 97 km (in a southerly and south westerly direction) from the Fukushima nuclear power plant

They should have posted one more team in Okinawa and reported a 50% increase in monitoring efforts.

Not to mention that the teams left Vienna on 25th.

No I am not talking of lip service of cross checking Japanese data while in Tokyo.

[Sanku]

Despite all attempts at tarring, feathering and throwing out from their workplaces for pointing out emperor has now clothes -- the fact remains that enough scientific evidence by insiders showed that a disaster was coming, and is playing out exactly as predicted by scientists.

[Lalmohan]

abhishek sharma - thanks for the tepco stock trace. whilst it is indeed down, most other stocks for japan are up, so this reflects the rather large costs tepco will now face to make the fukushima site safe and also then implement safety reviews and preventative action at other plants

[Theo_Fidel]

The thing to remember about Fukushima is that the Tsunami only exposed a weakness in the plant design. The weakness was always there.

I don't understand why the comparison with other technologies is being brought up. Nuclear is a beast on its own. No other energy disaster will last as long or kill as silently as nuclear does. Despite the coal fire you can walk thru Jharia. This would not be true of a nuclear accident. And coal is resisted as well.

Lets take a look at contribution. Nuclear in India only produces 4000 MW. This is just 2% of our capacity at present. Is the risk worth it. Even on poor days wind already exceeds it. While we think Nuclear is base load it is anything but.. plants often go offline for 6 months at a time. The Kalpakkam reactor for instance have been derated for a long time due to technical issues. The plants start and shut down all the time. We still have the option of not going down this road. Even Japan with 60+ reactors only gets ~ 25% of it power from nuclear. Only France has been able to depend substantially on Nuclear. Even our long term plan to 2030 will only call for < 10% of power to be Nuclear. Is it worth the risk?

Also we too do not have a proper long term waste disposal system. The present plant is to mix it with molten glass and bury it underground in Kalpakkam. Nice. Kalpakkam has already been struck by a Tsunami and survived by the skin of its teeth. We should consider moving it and Koodankulam. Maybe not right now. But in the medium term. Say build a plant inland and then shut these down.

Anyway this is getting a little OT so I'll leave it there.

[amit]

the fact remains that enough scientific evidence by insiders showed that a disaster was coming, and is playing out exactly as predicted by scientists.

And so Leuren Moret is an insider and/or "expert"?

Sorry Sanku as long as you sprout such nonsense you'll get called out. You don't even have the conviction of taking a firm stand and saying "No" to nuclear energy, as Theo, for example, has done. Yet you keep harrumphing away.

[vina]

Breaking news in PeePeeCee says that TEPCO has decided to put a concrete Burqa on reactors 1 -4 at Fukushima.

Now of course, they did not do so for the past 3 weeks because of Russian-American Equal-Equal reasons, however our "robust and diligent enlighters" , but the end result was already predicted by their soup-e-rear analysis.

[abhishek_sharma]

Japanese Operator Says It Will Scrap Four Reactors at Plant

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/31/world ... japan.html

[Sanku]

Breaking news in PeePeeCee says that TEPCO has decided to put a concrete Burqa on reactors 1 -4 at Fukushima.

Now of course, they did not do so for the past 3 weeks because of Russian-American Equal-Equal reasons, however our "robust and diligent enlighters" , but the end result was already predicted by their soup-e-rear analysis.

Well actually yes, it was obvious from day 2 that there was only one solution. Which should have been done ASAP instead of letting massive amount of radioactivity get released in the environment.

[Singha]

+1 to that. I had asked about concrete with lead granules ... but maybe the raging fires then would have burnt the concrete too.

[Sanku]

The question now is whose next? That is, if the lessons are not quickly incorporated, shutting down a number of NPPs on immediate basis

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/ ... 0420110327

Japan activist warns another 'nuclear quake' looms

But except for the location -- Hirose had predicted an imminent megaquake and nuclear accident at the Hamaoka plant 200 km southwest of Tokyo, not the Fukushima Daiichi plant 240 km northeast -- the scenario depicted in his first book on nuclear power in 15 years has proved eerily prescient.
..................

"I think it will definitely occur soon," he said, citing geological research on earthquake cycles suggesting that a massive quake may be imminent in the Tokai region near the Hamaoka plant.

[Sanku]

+1 to that. I had asked about concrete with lead granules ... but maybe the raging fires then would have burnt the concrete too.

Yes, boron laced cement with lead granules. It would have burnt some cement, but should still be contained within (Chernobyl where the moderator rods could not be inserted could be entombed safely after all)

[chaanakya]

Safe annual radiation absorbed limit in mSv is 1000 mSv as repeatedly dinned to brf members

At Fukushima 65 km away from afflicted NPP was 3.84 mSv per hour

So a person not voluntarily evacuating outside the 30 km evacuation zone would be receiving , lets see

3.84 * 24 hrs =92.6 mSv per day

since 16 days into crisis

he would have received

92.6mSv * 16 days=1474.56 mSv

If caesium 137 ityadi ityadi are found to have its way then

hypothetically he would be getting

92.6 mSv * 365 days=33638 mSv /annum.

So actually a dose of 3.84 mSv per hour translate into 33638 mSv per annum( subject to rise or fall in radiation level.) FWIW

Madarssa maths only.Could be wrong. Some catch has to be there .

In case I am egg plastered

http://hps.org/publicinformation/radter ... act49.html
Cumulative dose
The total dose resulting from repeated exposures of ionizing radiation to the same portion of the body, or to the whole body, over a period of time.

I only wish we could stop snipping.

Contrast the response posted below to that posted by Shiv about numbers of deaths attributable to Cherbobyl

sigh/ Can some body be so dense????? I did try to put the information in clear understandable terms.

But then one needs to keep eye open to read what was above.

But, since it is very important let me correct one more MISQUOTE here, 1000mSv is NOT annual limit (or rate per any time period), it is the total (accumulated) dose. What it means that if one sees radiation in air at, say 5 mSv/hr (Trust me, you will be forced to evacuated, much much before that), you may qualitatively decide, how long you should linger around. Same type for calculation may keep you in the right ball park while consuming tainted food. Cigarettes, for example, if you looked at bed value, would be about 100-200 mSV/year (mainly from Rn in smoke) - so 5 or 10 years of smoking will get around 1000mSV.

Madarssa maths only.Could be wrong. Some catch has to be there .

"wrong" is not the word I would use. Pauli had a word for it.

The simple response could have been to work out the exact accumulated dose, as per expert calculation based on the radiation rate indicated for the place 65 km away from the plant,opposed to the calculation posited in my post was so obvious since no one can survive that kind of exposure. One failed to notice FWIW, one is so fond of, and rest of the caveat.

That's a great way to communicate the goodness of radiation especially when one is a 'great' teacher.

Expert talks would get one this far and no further. There are several other issues to be considered besides radiation , doses.

Radiation doses and death statistics are not the great way to convey human tragedy that is unfolding.

If one feels that my posts raise panic then they should read all my posts and come to that conclusion and also understand what my position is on this.

I am yet to see any worthwhile post to change my views. I don't mean to disrespect or mock anyone but would not accept that in return.

I do not wish to respond or correct my posts except as already corrected by me FWIW./smile/ and not want to be answered as well. Please ignore my posts. I am dense dear lightheaded. Thanks.

[Lalmohan]

concrete burka is not on the menu
Bloomberg: Tepco’s Reactors May Take 30 Years, $12 Billion to Scrap

the first headlines suggested entombment, but what is being discussed - it seems mooted yesterday - and apparently confirmed today - that the plants will be gradually decommissioned. The use of sea water cooling has probably made much of the machinery beyond economic recovery. a good analysis, worth reading in full. Whilst obviously there is contamination, it doesn't appear to be concreting level

a wider problem - beyond reactor shutdown - and affecting the US and India is fuel rod management and storage

[somnath]

+1 to that. I had asked about concrete with lead granules ... but maybe the raging fires then would have burnt the concrete too.

Can a concrete sarcophagus be built while the reactor core is still being cooled through a messy, manual process? Would a massive earthworks project be able to be executed in these conditions? While water is inside the containment dome and flooding sundry other places?

[chaanakya]

What goes against the experts by public is that, they seem to play fast and loose with calculations and models. On this thread itself we have seen cases where flawed models with flawed assumptions were used over and over again in spite of real world evidence showing that those models were simply wrong. The above statement has been seen for Tsunami predictions as well as health issues due to radioactivity.

So it seems "experts" come in two varieties, one whose views seem to help Nuclear power companies make more money by deliberately underplaying risk and over playing benefits -- these get heard 99% of the time, for obvious reasons. Only when the yellow matter hits the fan, we hear of other more robust and detailed studies contradicting industry experts.

No wonder Nuclear is looked with such suspicion. The experts have destroyed their own credibility.

Sanku ji

There are several factors which leads to that.

1. Underlying assumptions are wrong i.e if you followed frequentist then why not bayesian. What software you used Minitab or spss./smile/ etc.
2. Correct methodology was not followed
3. Cause and effects are disconnected in space and time to draw the watertight conclusions
4. People, who are narrating their trauma ,are actually discredited by 'the' scientific community. Mostly such discredited people are living within the disaster zone.
5.You don't know or I know better and I don't have time to read all the wrong reports but you should read it all etc.
6. If all else fail then pin it to better reporting.

[chaanakya]

TEPCO chairman apologizes

Previous management had resigned over the falsifying the records and misreporting and that included former Chairman.

he chairman of the Tokyo Electric Power Company has apologized for trouble and anxiety caused by radiation leaks from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant.

Tsunehisa Katsumata on Wednesday was speaking to reporters in Tokyo for the first time since problems at the plant surfaced. The firm's president, Masataka Shimizu, was hospitalized for hypertension and dizziness on Tuesday night.

Katsumata said he feels particularly sorry for local residents who've had to evacuate or refrain from going outside while coping with the impact of the quake and aftershocks.

Katsumata admitted that the company has not been able to cool the reactors, and pledged maximum efforts to stabilize them. He added that the No.1 through 4 reactors would eventually have to be shut down for good.

Katsumata also said his company is preparing to compensate in accordance with the law for damage caused by the radiation leaks.

The chairman apologized for the inconvenience caused by the company's rolling blackouts to cope with chronic power shortages since the March 11th quake and tsunami.

He said the company will do its best and work closely with the government to minimize or even avoid rolling blackouts this summer.
Wednesday, March 30, 2011 16:37 +0900 (JST)

[Sanku]

Meanwhile the environmental impact continues to worsen

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12903072

Japan nuclear: Fukushima seawater radioactivity rises

Seawater near Japan's quake-hit Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant has a much higher level of radiation than previously reported, officials say.

In one section, radioactive iodine stood at 3,355 times the legal limit, said Japan's nuclear safety agency.

==============

There are several factors which leads to that.

Absolutely right Sir, and apart from the reasons you mention, some times people are so wedded to their models, that they forget that the onus is on models to reflect the real world, and the real world has no onus to live up to your models.

The TEPCO "soteigai" comment should be seen in that light as well (apart from already documented reasons of clear fraud) -- once they made the model, they were so into their models that in their hubris wanted the real world to be believable to their models.

They could have made better models by reading their countries history than cooking up numbers. This is a lesson to Indians too, simulation has its limits. If something fizziles, it fizziles, saying that my computer simulation shows it sizziles and not fizziles and therefore the accelerometer must be broken is plain deluding yourself.

[chaanakya]

TEPCO halts work to remove radioactive water

The operator of the troubled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant has suspended work to move highly radioactive water from the basement of the turbine building into the turbine condenser at the No. 1 reactor.

Tokyo Electric Power Company suspended the operation on Tuesday morning after the condenser became full of water.

The work began on Thursday after water in the basement of the turbine building was found to contain radiation about 10,000 times higher than would normally be found inside an operating nuclear reactor.

The Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency says the water is now about 20 centimeters deep, half the initial level.

TEPCO is studying a plan to move water from a tunnel outside the turbine building into an on-site waste disposal facility with a capacity of more than 25,000 tons.

The water contains radioactive substances, and its level is only 10 centimeters below the top of the tunnel.

TEPCO also planned to move highly radioactive water from the basements of the turbine buildings of the No. 2 and No. 3 reactors into turbine condensers with a capacity of 3,000 tons each. But both condensers turned out to be full.

Plant workers are now using pumps that can draw 10 to 25 tons of water per hour to move water from the condensers' storage tanks into other tanks. They then hope to move water inside the condensers into the storage tanks and fill the condensers with the highly radioactive water from the basements.
Wednesday, March 30, 2011 16:37 +0900 (JST)