Libyan War : Political and strategic aspects

joshvajohn · Post by **joshvajohn** » 24 Oct 2011 05:32

Let me make a comparison with Nepal. India pressurised Nepali King and others to go for democracy. Then Indian government knew that Maoist will come to power. India was happy that democracy was established and now Nepal will grow with India but unfortunately Nepalis elected Maoists who took proChinese position without realising the India's power of influence. then one president after another had to resign and then now someone who tries to balance is in power. Nepali Maoists did not understand Nepali's aspiration and so such time of transitions have to be in place for a while until the balance of things come into reality. I thing this is true in the case of Tunisia too now pro-Islamic group will come to power and then people will realise that their ideals are not implementable nor these guys are true to their promises and then they throw them out and then go for a better alternatives.

Now Libya will undergo a similar process but thanks to Gaddaffi and his son they have already given a bit of western liberal mind and democratic aspirations to their own people through their education and public media in spite of killing their own people and so Libya will have a government which will try to be democratic but will also try to be proIslamic for a while. But in Egypt such a case is stronger at grassroots through Islamic brotherhood rather than in Libya and also they in Libya will have plenty of money to spend on popular programmes and thus keep people happy for a while without imposing too much of shariya and so on and also not allow Western liberal thinking to come into their mind either. It will take a bit of time to realise and enjoy this democratic freedom in Libya.

In Tunisia the pro-Islamic party is clear that they are not going to bring in Islamic law rather they will emphasise on the human rights side of things. At present these things look good but we can never predict the popular uprisings.
What Islamic countries need is a reform of their religion and their concepts which will enable them to be good human beings, be good to all beings and faithful to Allah. At present neither their religion nor their laws allow them to do this. Though they are aware of these things they do not find a way out of this.

sumishi · Post by **sumishi** » 24 Oct 2011 07:56

brihaspati wrote:
sumishi wrote:^^
Brihaspati ji,
Would like your analysis on the following points:
(1) How does the act of destroying a nation state (citing the fraudulent reason of humanitarian aid, getting UN sanction, and far exceeding the mandate) on the one hand, and Q's anti-India pro-islamic stance on the other, measure up individually wrt India's interest?
(2) ...
The act of destroying my nation is a heinous crime. The act of destroying other nations at others hands or at my hands is conditionally a crime or a "natural" act depending on my convenience, and my interpretation of my nation's interests.

Do you see how you are applying abstract value judgments on whatever the combined anti-Q Libyans and Europeans are supposed to have done? the reason for "humanitarian aid" is "fraudulent" - which means you expect some kind of universal ethical rule that must be followed by all nations acting as independent agents. This is what I meant as becoming the conscience keeper of the world. Even if you want your particular version of consciecne keeping - you need muscle to enforce that.

...

Bji, the issue in the first point I raised does not relate to any abstract value judgement on my part. What I was trying to get at was whether the precedent that has already been set to create false reasons and propaganda to move into and destroy nation states, with nothing more than pip-squeak from other powers, is bad for India in the long term. Specifically (and hypothetically), what is to prevent the West from raising the bogey of need for humanitarian assistance in J&K against the "heavy hand of the Indian Special Forces", and moving in with weapons and drones. Are our relations with the West so-so cosy that such can never be a possibility? Or is it that our military strength can anyday take on their might?

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 24 Oct 2011 12:55

watched youtube videos of gadaffi's end last night - was pretty unsettling to see the faithful in fully atavistic jihad mode
ugly ugly ugly
and i am sure that the new government of libya will soon adopt sharia law...

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 24 Oct 2011 17:02

Black and White in Libya

October 23, 2011 10:00 AM EDT

“I see now, Gaddafi made mistakes.” Mabruk, a young physics teacher, considers his words for a while before he continues. “But he gave our people everything. Modern houses, jobs, a new hospital, a nice school. I was fortunate enough to shake his hand when he visited Tawergha, just before the revolution.”

Gaddafi’s visit to Tawergha, a small town between the port city of Misrata and his hometown of Sirte, took place in February after the revolts in Tunisia and Egypt had started gaining traction. It would be the last time Gaddafi benevolently handed out money and privileges in exchange for support. And he did gain support from the black inhabitants of Tawergha, of whom several joined his security guard. “We had everything but freedom,” Mabruk says to me and adds, “Now I, too, am a revolutionary. But what does it matter when it does not show?”

Because the color of the Libyan revolution is white. Or at least as fair as the skin of Arabs and Berbers along the Mediterranean coast. Despite Libya’s having a significant black population, no blacks are represented in its current transitional government, and there are no blacks among the economic or cultural elite. Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch have both reported cases of arbitrary arrests, torture, and execution of blacks in detention, not least blacks from Mabruk’s hometown. Tawergha had more than 30,000 inhabitants, but is now ethnically cleansed. The buildings stare vacantly out toward the deserted streets. Corpses of dogs and cats lie next to laundry hung out to dry on the day the inhabitants fled. The National Transitional Council seems to employ classic Gaddafi methods. If this tolerance for revenge remains as pervasive as it is today, Libya’s new leaders have already lost the struggle to obtain a better image than their predecessor. ...

[Gaddhafi] curried favor on the African continent more than in the Arab world, and today blacks are fair game. I’ve met black Libyan mothers who missed several sons, abducted from the streets, never to return.

from http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2 ... -ends.html

abhischekcc · Post by **abhischekcc** » 24 Oct 2011 17:07

Libya will cry for the day it let Gaddhafi down.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 24 Oct 2011 20:35

http://in.news.yahoo.com/gaddafi-still- ... 36201.html

libyans still wrangling over where to bury him, as his body rots ...

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 24 Oct 2011 20:53

sumishi ji,
I do not see any of the "west" or Islamists as our friends. They are all opportunists and their ruling interests are basically all cut from the same ideological crap of justifying imperialism. It is time we think of our "interests", and which is all about expanding our territorial dominance - sugarcoating it as much as possible but which ultimately is never possible without the solid threat of a muscular punch to back it up with.

Yes both the west and the Islamists will try to use each other where their common territorial dominance expansion interests are concerned - and which is about the rich productivity - in more seenses than one, of the Indian subcontinent. If they help weaken each other somewhat - that is to my advantage.

Tactically and strategically speaking Europe or the "west" even in its totality cannot really bring off a Libya like coup in India. The sheer scale of operations needed and longer term fallouts are beyond their comfortable calculations. Immediately they will raise alarm bells in Russia and China both, as well as the Islamists. Even if the west plans to unleash the Islamists as a counter to Russia and China - these Islamists themselves have complicated balance of interests issues with both Russia nd China to get them anxious too much. West has simply no ally here in South Asia except a certain spectrum within India. By attacking India they will lose even that, and all stepping stones here would be gone. A pocket of Christian enclave or a naval base there would not save any of their skins in IOR.

It is not about warm relations with the west. The NATO dancing was a pretension about being "effective" in a situation they know they are losing rapidly. For all practical purposes the western toehold in North Africa are gone - except perhaps surprisingly in Algeria. Thats why the west is again concentrating on the southern half of the African continent, and the next round of attempted pre-emptive measures will be seen south of the equator. The continent will be tried to be divided along a east-west dividing line where Christianity will try a neo-imperialist struggle from the south. North is given up to the Muslims. They ahve too much on their plate to worry about far closer to home than the subcontinent.

J&K issue will be resurrected no doubt - primarily as diversionary tactics for the accelerating withdrawal and ineffectiveness in AFPAK. A politically bleak Obama may take a calculated step in precipitating a crisis in Pak which might be a way out for a lot of western troubles temporarily. But there are lots of forces within USA which would be baulking at the potential consequences of an unsustainable push that ends in a disastrous permanent roll-back and a greater dependence on India as the sole remaining useful pawn.

sumishi · Post by **sumishi** » 24 Oct 2011 21:18

^^
Thanks, Bji, for the input. Although I would differ on the POV of the West having lost their control over N Africa to Islamists, as they are puppeteers par excellence with almost all devious actions and controls lying beyond the normal visible spectrum, I might be wrong, and only time will tell as geopolitics play out.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 24 Oct 2011 21:25

We will see the actual manifestaions of loss of control on the ground over the coming years. It is time we start to recognize that the mythical "western" empire is on its way out. It will of course still dazzle and win spectacular confrontations - but these are more dramatics than sustainable dominance on gorund. Britian won WWII, but lost the empire after all, immediately.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 24 Oct 2011 21:29

b-ji, the americans won ww2, britian survived on the winning side, the consequence was that empire had to be lost

Prithwi · Post by **Prithwi** » 24 Oct 2011 22:59

Libya to adopt Sharia law, ends public showing of Gaddafi's body

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/worl ... 478689.cms

So NATO intervention down the drain. When will these pre-historic dinos understand?

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 25 Oct 2011 00:13

^^^ But why do you believe that this is not according to plan. People on BRF have long been talking about the plan to create a global ummah by certain western imperialists. These sort of societies are a template in the same way as China was a template in the late 40's. This is a reason why there is very little squawking about Saudi Arabia despite anti liberal values. Long all over the world - very little about China till it started growling at the west and nothing from the feminist, rights tinktanks about KSA. This furor sweeping across the muslim nations is toppling secular dictators and replacing them with Taliban equivalents. This is what happened in Afghanistan under the mujahideen and even Pakistan under Zia.
For some reason the existence of a global wahabi ummah fits into the calculus of the western imperialists. Where it is benefits them most is yet to be unveiled.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 25 Oct 2011 00:58

There is a reapproachment between the "liberals" and the "islamists". Jalil victory speech was to emphasise islamicness.

This has more to the fact that Jalil has no influence amongst the islamists and the show he put up in his victory speech was to showthem he is muslim too.

Don't be fooled by whats going on. Its the MB/Belhaj (islamst) backed by Qatari's vs the Euros (liberals). Each is trying to out manuever the other.

Look at Tunisia ifyou want to see what the US has okayed. The Ennahada is an islamic party that State dept is backing.

Whatever happens these countries will have an islamic flavour - after all this is what the people want (And this is what Obama wants). The degree of islamistness will differ from nation to nation.

Lets wait and see. In reality the Defence portfolio will be somoeno close to Washington, Paris, London - west can risk someone else and the French are already selling them their wares - Libyan AF will be flying UAE Mirages soon.. Interior ministry (for terror) will also be someone close to US.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 25 Oct 2011 01:17

Gaddafi Sodomized? That is what HP calls, in desi parlance it is 'gaand mhe bamboo'. There is a video and some video grabs. Needless to say graphic, but you can view it at work (nothing naked or anything).

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 25 Oct 2011 02:14

Lalmohan wrote:b-ji, the americans won ww2, britian survived on the winning side, the consequence was that empire had to be lost

But no one left now to transfer the working crown to. None within the Anglo-Saxon pure-blood anyway.

Jarita wrote:^^^ But why do you believe that this is not according to plan. People on BRF have long been talking about the plan to create a global ummah by certain western imperialists. These sort of societies are a template in the same way as China was a template in the late 40's. This is a reason why there is very little squawking about Saudi Arabia despite anti liberal values. Long all over the world - very little about China till it started growling at the west and nothing from the feminist, rights tinktanks about KSA. This furor sweeping across the muslim nations is toppling secular dictators and replacing them with Taliban equivalents. This is what happened in Afghanistan under the mujahideen and even Pakistan under Zia.
For some reason the existence of a global wahabi ummah fits into the calculus of the western imperialists. Where it is benefits them most is yet to be unveiled.

What makes you think these were "secular" dictators? They preserved the mullahcracy, and used them to bolster their own power. Look at the details of the steps taken by these so-called "secular" dictators. They only crushed those Islamists who challenged their personal power. They protected and preserved other Islamists and Islamism. Every single one of their "socialist" doctrines had nothing that challenged Islam, or deligitimized the theology and its claims. it was all about personal contests with mullahs who claimed share of supreme power as their theology given birthright. If they were really secular they would have crushed the institutional basis for Islamism. They didnt.

I n fact todays heightened Islamism is partly a direct result of their protection of Islam - which they used as a counterbalance to leftist and/or really secular/liberal tendencies.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 25 Oct 2011 02:23

^
Islamic fundamentalism not only survived under these so-called dictatorships, it is able to come out as the winner at the first sign of cracks in those dictatorships. Even the most secular islamic state Turkey had to come under military coups continually to keep the lid 'appear' closed. Even that ended in 2002.

How can one destroy islamism without touching its roots?

paramu · Post by **paramu** » 25 Oct 2011 02:48

Why blame only the secular dictators. Even secular democracies are doing everything to preserve mullacracy.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 25 Oct 2011 03:08

SwamyG, No need for translation. Makes it crass.
Ramana

Neshant · Post by **Neshant** » 25 Oct 2011 06:38

The US murdered a recognized soverign leader of a country.

She's jubilant...

Killers come in all forms, truly.

... and now she's calling of a human rights investigation into Gadaffi's death. what a load of bullocks!!

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 25 Oct 2011 06:51

The Man Who Knew Too Much

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 25 Oct 2011 08:26

Shyamd< Seven months ago I made this chart. By and large it has come to pass.

http://www.slideshare.net/ramana_56/wes ... s-template

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 25 Oct 2011 12:20

This is the true face of the region. Dharma has no meaning there either in war or peace.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 25 Oct 2011 13:09

Over 50 Gaddafi supporters executed: HRW

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 25 Oct 2011 14:14

libya will now descend into tribal warfare and chaos

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 25 Oct 2011 15:43

Ennahada (State department backed from Tunisia), Abdul Jalil's NTC and AKP (Turkey) are getting together to form a moderate Islamic party in Libya.

Its all about winning support from the islamists and outmaneuvering Belhaj and the salafi's.

Ennahada took a lot of money from the GCC apparently

Prithwi · Post by **Prithwi** » 25 Oct 2011 16:16

Jarita wrote:^^^ But why do you believe that this is not according to plan. People on BRF have long been talking about the plan to create a global ummah by certain western imperialists. These sort of societies are a template in the same way as China was a template in the late 40's. This is a reason why there is very little squawking about Saudi Arabia despite anti liberal values. Long all over the world - very little about China till it started growling at the west and nothing from the feminist, rights tinktanks about KSA. This furor sweeping across the muslim nations is toppling secular dictators and replacing them with Taliban equivalents. This is what happened in Afghanistan under the mujahideen and even Pakistan under Zia.
For some reason the existence of a global wahabi ummah fits into the calculus of the western imperialists. Where it is benefits them most is yet to be unveiled.

I guess so. It has to do with oil, considering it is easy to talk to a single man in charge rather than a democratic committee. I sometime think it's better for Islamic countries to be under a dictator than try out democratic and secular principles. Their beliefs just do not fit in.

God forbid, if there is WWIII, then with the negativity gained by Islam, Muslims will suffer twice as much from right wingers in non-muslim countries, as Jews suffered in WWII.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 25 Oct 2011 17:07

Dictators in Islamic countries
(1) helps the west in manipulation of the national mobilization/resources/gov/regime/society through manipulation of single persons which is always easier compared to unruly, chaotic "democracies" - even if Islamic.

(2) helps preserve and protect mullahcracy as long as they do not directly challenge the personal power of the dictator. Both mullahcracy as well as dictators use each other and Islam - so that in the end Islam triumphs.

(3) individual dictators can be easily made scapegoats for the disasters and atrocities brought out by an Islamic society through the ideological underpinnings of sadisma nd violence that manifests in the lackeys of the dictator. The mullahcracy and the theology remains safe from exposure of its real role in prepping the society towards such violence.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 25 Oct 2011 17:26

brihaspati wrote:Dictators in Islamic countries

..... The mullahcracy and the theology remains safe from exposure of its real role in prepping the society towards such violence.

and that is why they should be brought to the forefront and discredited.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 26 Oct 2011 01:14

ramana wrote:Shyamd< Seven months ago I made this chart. By and large it has come to pass.

http://www.slideshare.net/ramana_56/wes ... s-template

Its kinda worked out hasnt it. I think Syria will also follow the * of libya.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 26 Oct 2011 20:22

Have people forgot about Saif al Islam??? How has he escaped? Not a word on foreign press! Some said he was captured. Again??

He was in the same convoy. Is he a double agent? Did he sell his dad out? Is that why he kept gettin released??

smells like a double agent to me. Apparently he is back in tripoli

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 26 Oct 2011 21:08

In a way the West is right in supporting Islamists. For any country that is more powerful than Islamists - it is better to have Islamists in power because
1. They are not afraid of death and they will die happily
2. They will do silly violent things for which you can kill them happily with no feeling of guilt.

Islamic extremists are Allah's gift to kafirs to bring about some equality.

There are two problems with supporting islamic extremists
1. If you are too secular and think Islamic extremists too have a right to live
2. if those extremists are being armed by someone else against you - as the US armed Pakistan.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Oct 2011 21:49

good one.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 26 Oct 2011 21:57

shiv wrote:In a way the West is right in supporting Islamists. For any country that is more powerful than Islamists - it is better to have Islamists in power because
1. They are not afraid of death and they will die happily
2. They will do silly violent things for which you can kill them happily with no feeling of guilt.
Islamic extremists are Allah's gift to kafirs to bring about some equality..

Even on this very Forum Indians eagerly await for overt Islamists to take over Djinna' Arabia next door.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 27 Oct 2011 05:00

Gaddafi Son, Intelligence Chief 'Want to Surrender'

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2011/10/ ... .html?_r=1

ABU DHABI (Reuters) - Muammar Gaddafi's son Saif al-Islam and former intelligence chief Abdullah al-Senussi propose to hand themselves in to the International Criminal Court, a senior official with Libya's National Transitional Council said on Wednesday. ."They are proposing a way to hand themselves over to The Hague," Abdel Majid Mlegta told Reuters from Libya. Spokesman for the Hague court Fadi El Abdallah said: "We don't have confirmation about this now. We are trying to contact the NTC for more information."
Saif al-Islam is wanted by the war crimes court, as was his late father. There is also a warrant out for Senussi.
Saif al-Islam has been on the run since Libyan forces overran his father's home town Sirte at the weekend. He is thought to be somewhere near Libya's southern border with Niger. Mlegta said his information came from intelligence sources who told him that Saif al-Islam and Senussi were trying to broker a deal to surrender to the court through a neighbouring country, which he did not name. They had concluded that it was not safe for them to remain in Libya, or to go to Algeria or Niger, two countries where Gaddafi family members are already sheltering. "They feel that it is not safe for them to stay where they are or to go anywhere," Mlegta said.

Neshant · Post by **Neshant** » 27 Oct 2011 09:37

ah good old banking goons never miss a beat

Goldman Sachs Rips Off Libyan state funds in the chaos of war

abhischekcc · Post by **abhischekcc** » 27 Oct 2011 13:34

The most unethical company in the world doing god's work - ripping off allah's men.

Manny · Post by **Manny** » 27 Oct 2011 21:30

never-mind! already posted

pgbhat · Post by **pgbhat** » 28 Oct 2011 00:46

Counting the costs of Libya mission

Though Nato took over the mission it still depended on American help to provide refuelling planes and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance assets such as the predator drone.

France, Britain and its partners could not have done this alone.

Then there's the question of how much it all cost.

The MoD's current projection, based on the mission continuing till mid December, is that it will cost the British taxpayer around £300m - £160m for operational costs such as fuel, logistics and accommodation and £140m to replenish munitions.

At its peak some 2,300 British service personnel were deployed; 1,420 precision guided bombs and missiles released; the Army aircorps Apaches launched about 110 hellfire missiles and CR-V rockets and fired more than 4,000 rounds from their 30mm cannon; from the sea Royal Navy warships fired 240 high explosive or illumination rounds.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 28 Oct 2011 01:27

Neshant wrote:ah good old banking goons never miss a beat

Goldman Sachs Rips Off Libyan state funds in the chaos of war

Good news! Less initial loot for the mullahs to play with. More inner wrangling over the dead body of the nation. Why do we have to shed tears for a Muslim-majority country that takes pride in its islamism? When no such reciprocity ever is seen from them towards kafirs?

Neshant · Post by **Neshant** » 29 Oct 2011 05:41

because Gadaffi was India's ally and a secular one at that.

the crop of goons installed by NATO are using islam to divert attention from their role in enabling foreign powers to loot Libya's resources & wealth.

I predict the next country that will get a 'civilian protection' invasion will be UAE. They are sitting on a lot of money, foreign assets & oil. Plus they have a leader that is easy to get rid of.