The Line of Control
Indians relate such incidents of cross-border shelling to Pakistani attempts to force infiltrators through. They of course embellish their narratives further by associating terror with the Pakistani state and flaunt it relentlessly. If such a propagandistic streak irks global sensitivities about Pakistan’s nuclear status, and leads to a global pressure to unarm nuclear Pakistan, it will implicitly deliver to India the crown jewel of its national security objectives. It is long winded – true, but then what else are India’s options other than to conflate terrorism, internal instability, irrationality of the Pakistani mindset with manifestations as dastardly as slitting dead Indian soldiers, and a failing, rogue of a nation that has India and the entire world on tenterhooks.Or, at least that is the essence of their media aggression. This then is the crux of the combo that India plays whenever it finds an opportunity. Minus Pakistani nukes, the ‘hegemon’ has a free ride in all manners of saying. Not only that, India dreams of it and, if ever realised, it will relish it.Here are a couple of scenarios to consider: What if Pakistan were to be framed as a failed state with a fractious and feuding society; an inebriated polity; a broken economy without any indications of resuscitation, and a rogue army that perpetually rules the roost and nourishes terrorism as a home-grown commodity – the popular planks of propagating and instituting a belief of Pakistan as a failing state? Chances are someone out there would like to work towards that end by exploiting Pakistan’s vulnerabilities in all or most of these areas and keep it embroiled amid signs that over time entrench belief in the fidelity of such formulation.With the troops drawdown in Afghanistan enabling hope of the war coming to a closure there, Pakistan is now able to focus so much more on its internal challenges. Is it that someone out there would like Pakistan to continue to remain embroiled in a bleeding war against insurgencies, if those groups that have challenged the state are left unharmed?
That becomes probable if the Pakistan Army is forced to extricate its over 150,000 troops from the western regions to the Indian borders, again to contend with the rising possibility of a limited armed conflict. That way the insurgencies mushroom and Pakistan continues to remain stuck in the quagmire of internal challenges and willy-nilly is pushed closer to a state of failure under the weight of perpetual adversities. On a map of geo-political enactments, it isn’t a far-fetched possibility.On the flip side, with the war in Afghanistan closing down, is there a possibility that heightened tensions in Kashmir and with India, can find an alternate employment for the various groups who till-date were conveniently engaged elsewhere, but will now be suitable diverted and found another occupation.This might also save Pakistan another crippling engagement with another war on terror! The choice is India’s to determine its own way ahead. Beating war drums will become countervailing to their larger long-term interests.For those who read too much into the recent doctrinal changes of the army, get back for another detailed reviewing. The conventional threat is well and alive.
But always provoked.