India-EU News & Analysis

[g.sarkar]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... pplication
Turkish fury as Sweden allows Qur’an burning risks further delays to Nato bid
Foreign minister condemns ‘vile protest’ outside Stockholm mosque ahead of meeting in Brussels to discuss application
Jon Henley, Europe correspondent, Wed 28 Jun 2023
Turkey’s foreign minister has criticised the burning of the Qur’an outside a Stockholm mosque in a demonstration that could further complicate Ankara’s long-delayed approval of Sweden’s application to join Nato.
The protest came as Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, told the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, on Wednesday that Sweden had made some progress, but not enough. Nato said top diplomats from both countries would meet in Brussels next week.
“I condemn the vile protest in Sweden against our holy book on the first day of the blessed Eid al-Adha,” the Turkish foreign minister, Hakan Fidan, tweeted on Wednesday, adding that it was “unacceptable to allow anti-Islam protests in the name of freedom of expression”.
Swedish police had allowed the protest, attended by about 200 people on Wednesday, the start of the three-day Eid al-Adha Muslim holiday, saying the security risks “were not of a nature to justify, under current laws, a decision to reject the request”.
The Swedish public broadcaster SVT reported that the event passed off peacefully, saying the man responsible for the demonstration tore pages from the Qur’an, wiped his shoes with some of them and burned others, then placed a slice of bacon in the book.
Police said the organiser was being investigated for incitement and violating a seasonal ban on lighting fires in Sweden. One man was reportedly suspected of attempted assault, and another who was carrying a rock was removed by police.
......
Gautam

[IndraD]

Paris in grip of riot waves!!

Calling Cyrano sir who lives there !!

[sanjaykumar]

Looks worse than Ukraine.

Perhaps some African countries can release a statement urging an end to tribal warfare in Europe.

[sanman]

Perhaps Reporters Sans Frontieres can release their updated ranking on human rights to see if France is now ranked 10 places behind Afghanistan

[Cyrano]

While 90% of France is ok and safe. But the Muslim immigrant dominated suburbs of big cities like Paris, Marseille are burning now. Years of appeasement for violence unleashed by these groups by leftist political parties has got us here. Macron can of course get the police to brutalize yellow vests asking for better social justice but has no answer to these Muslim rioters. The French police union has put the govt and politicians on notice and warned them if they back off again and again, they will no longer have any rule of law. The MO this time - use minors in the front, they can't be detained for long and they come out and resume the violence the next day.
The media is more pukeworthy than on Ukraine which is already hard to beat. The govt thinks it has done something great by arresting nearly a 1000 rioters. The rioters are laughing, screaming "Alla hu akbar", looting and arson with impunity and generally showing the finger to the govt.

The trigger incident is irrelevant now. It's muslims vs the state, open challenge. Let's see how this weekend goes.

[vijayk]

https://twitter.com/aravind/status/1674855401614106624

The President of France was given one last opportunity to show his line of thinking is to toe the hegemonic power's line.

But he made statements that seemed to suggest he wanted France to be a sovereign nation, not toeing anyone's line, and multialigned.

This is after a series of statements he has made this year on Russia, the Ukraine War, and China, which all went against the hegemonic power's line.

So he has to be removed. The standard #toolkit has been activated. The same ones used time and again in India, Pakistan, Brazil, even in the US - to topple a leader acting in a sovereign way, not toeing the deep state's line.

A police murder, a judgment, and even an isolated incident that triggers some community can be turned into a civil war with riots burning down the country.

The art has been perfected by the imperialist power's proxies. Proxies run by geriatric tortises and their web of NGOs and plants in every institution in any democracy. That's why the imperialists coveat democracy in other countries. They can't do this in China or Russia.

I firmly believe this ... Macron is the target. The Democratic establishment is totally in bed with these kind of forces

[Cyrano]

LoL ! Till yesterday Macron was a globalist working his population to death, selling France jewels to big business and suddenly after a few news bites he is the target. It doesn't work that way. The famed right wing Meloni is now purring like a kitten.

[krithivas]

What Hitler failed to accomplish with his famed question, “Is Paris burning?”, the peaceful community has accomplished. That’s why the toolkit anarchists leverage these peaceful anarchists. India must crush them ahead of the 2024 elections.

While 90% of France is ok and safe. But the Muslim immigrant dominated suburbs of big cities like Paris, Marseille are burning now. Years of appeasement for violence unleashed by these groups by leftist political parties has got us here. Macron can of course get the police to brutalize yellow vests asking for better social justice but has no answer to these Muslim rioters. The French police union has put the govt and politicians on notice and warned them if they back off again and again, they will no longer have any rule of law. The MO this time - use minors in the front, they can't be detained for long and they come out and resume the violence the next day.
The media is more pukeworthy than on Ukraine which is already hard to beat. The govt thinks it has done something great by arresting nearly a 1000 rioters. The rioters are laughing, screaming "Alla hu akbar", looting and arson with impunity and generally showing the finger to the govt.

The trigger incident is irrelevant now. It's muslims vs the state, open challenge. Let's see how this weekend goes.

[Aditya_V]

That's why I believe that there needs to movement of such people to Europe North America and Australia. Then they cannot play many of thier games in the Indian subcontinent with no consequences. The general public in these countries will also help shut down hateful ideologies and ecosystems within India.

[RaviB]

I came across this comment section in a respected German newspaper Die Zeit

I have autotranslated all comments from German. I think what is interesting to see is the role of Indian diaspora in spreading the myth of the decline of democracy in India. But also the role of Indian diaspora in fighting the propaganda. This is just a micro-view of the contest of narratives going on in the EU right now.

https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/202 ... d-65775871

lennon68 2 weeks ago
Indeed. I have not been to India for a long time, but all my Indian friends confirm that democracy in India is being dismantled in favour of aggressive Hindu nationalism. Against this background, it is inexplicable to me why Modi, of all people, is allowed to address the Congress.

Realpolitik, it may make partial sense, but only partial. It is normal that India buys Russian oil cheaply. It is normal that India buys Russian oil cheaply. The country has been saying goodbye to Russian weapons for years. The country has been divesting itself of Russian weapons for years, simply because they are technologically obsolete. Putin's Ukraine debacle only accelerates this. India as a counterweight to China? Happens anyway with two such giants. The US and China should rather conduct bilateral negotiations; at least in economic matters, agreements are possible. All in all, not a good performance by Biden.

5 2 :sad: 4

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Pragmatius 2 weeks ago
To move from anecdotes to empirical facts: Modi's party just this month lost power in a state larger than Germany. According to a Pew study based on 30000 personal interviews, 89% of Indian Muslims believe they are "very free" to practice their religion (compared to 91% of Hindus). The majority of Hindus do NOT vote for Modi's party, while 19% of Muslims do.

India is big enough and important enough that we should take the country a little more seriously and look at the actual data instead of just believing hearsay.

Democracy is healthy and alive in India.

https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/20 ... gregation/

:laugh: 1
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p.maxwell 2 weeks ago
Reply to @Pragmatius
The study is very comprehensive and also very confusing in parts. The multitude of subjects and groups do not make it easy to compare.

One thing that struck me though, while it is formally true that the majority of Hindus did NOT vote for the BJP, 49% is almost half. That is exactly the headline of the table ( About half of Hindus voted for the BJP in 2019...).

You want to give the impression that " fake news " is being spread here, but it is undeniable that the RSS is the core of Modi's BJP. The worldview of the RSS, according to Des Raj Goyal, is as follows:

" Non-Hindus are conquerors or guests and cannot be treated as equals till they adopt Hindu traditions, culture etc. The non-Hindus, especially the Muslims and Christians, are enemies of all that is Hindu and therefore must be treated as a threat. The freedom and progress of this country is the freedom and progress of Hindus...". Wikipedia - Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh ( RSS )

That the founders of the RSS were influenced by Italian, as well as German fascism, here just once as a side note.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Violence_ ... dent_India

2

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TheGandhi 2 weeks ago
Reply to @p.maxwell
I am a (native) Indian and an ex-Christian ("born-again Hindu"), and share Mr Goyal's view.

Firstly, it goes without saying that the guest should respect the customs of the host.

Secondly, both Islam and Christianity are blatantly out to convert - by any means necessary. Both religions have succeeded in spreading almost worldwide in just a few centuries - not through debate and persuasion, but by sword, pillory, stake and then by coercion and indoctrination. You, as Europeans, are certainly familiar with the word "Inquisition".

Only the Hindus have managed to resist these assaults for 1000 years - whether by the Portuguese (keyword: Goan Inquisition); English, Moguls. This struggle is still going on.

As for the founding myth of the RSS (your Wikipedia link) - this is utter rubbish. If the subject interests you so much, I suggest you do your own research instead of believing everything you read. After all, knowledge is superior to belief (from Hindu philosophy, btw)

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[ricky_v]

not strictly india related

mep elections are a weird beast, the following article deals with it:

https://ecfr.eu/publication/a-sharp-rig ... elections/

Anti-European populists are likely to top the polls in nine member states (Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, France, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, and Slovakia) and come second or third in a further nine countries (Bulgaria, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Latvia, Portugal, Romania, Spain, and Sweden).

According to our forecast, almost half the seats will be held by MEPs outside the “super grand coalition” of the three centrist groups.

Inside the European Parliament, a populist right coalition of Christian democrats, conservatives, and radical right MEPs could emerge with a majority for the first time.

While the parliament is not the most significant EU institution when it comes to foreign policy, the way in which the political groups align after the elections, and the impact that these elections have on national debates in member states, will have significant implications for the European Commission’s and Council’s ability to make foreign policy choices, most notably in implementing the next phase of the European Green Deal.

Our model predicts the vote share that each national party will win in the 2024 European Parliament elections. From those vote shares we calculated how many seats each national party is likely to win, and how this could affect the political groups in the European Parliament.

projected seats – the number of seats each political group would win in June 2024 if each national party performed as predicted by our statistical model (taking into account that the number of MEPs will increase from 705 currently to 720 in June 2024).

The results show that the two main political groups in the parliament – the European People’s Party (EPP) and the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) – will likely continue to lose seats (they have lost seats in the last two European Parliament elections). This reflects the long-term decline in support for mainstream parties and the growing support for extremist and smaller parties across Europe, which is resulting in an increasing fragmentation of European party systems, at both the national and European levels.

Despite this, we expect the EPP to remain the largest group in the parliament, and therefore maintain most agenda-setting power, including over the choice of the next commission president.

We predict that the centrist Renew Europe (RE) group and the Greens/European Free Alliance (G/EFA) will also lose seats, falling from 101 to 86 and 71 to 61 respectively. Meanwhile, the Left group should increase their representation from 38 to 44 seats. In addition, if the Five Star Movement in Italy, which we predict will win 13 seats, decided not to sit with the non-attached (NI) MEPs, it may choose to join either the G/EFA or the Left, which would bolster the number of MEPs sitting to the left of the S&D.

But the main winners in the elections will be the populist right. The major winner will be the radical right Identity and Democracy (ID) group, which we expect to gain 40 seats and, with almost 100 MEPs, to emerge as the third largest group in the new parliament.

We also predict that the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group will gain 18 seats. And, if Fidesz in Hungary (which we expect to win 14 seats) decides to join the ECR rather than to sit with the non-attached MEPs, the ECR could overtake RE and ID and become the third largest group.

We expect the ECR and ID groups together to account for 25 per cent of MEPs, and have more seats combined than the EPP or the S&D for the first time.

Our model predicts significant seat losses for the EPP in Germany, Italy, Romania, and Ireland, but significant gains in Spain. We forecast that the S&D will lose a lot of seats in Germany, and the Netherlands, and will gain most seats in Poland. We expect RE to lose most seats in France and Spain, and to make most gains in the Czech Republic and Italy.

We expect the ECR to pick up a lot of seats in Italy, as a result of Brothers of Italy (FdI) emerging as one of the largest delegations in the European Parliament (with 27 seats). With the expected fall of Forza Italia to only 7 seats, though, the EPP may approach Brothers of Italy to join their group. Our model predicts that the ECR will lose seats in Poland, and gain most seats in Romania and Spain, in addition to Italy. It predicts that ID will lose many seats in Italy, with the decline of Lega, but these losses will be offset by significant gains in France, Germany, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Bulgaria, and Austria.

We expect the G/EFA to lose most seats in Germany, France, and Italy. Finally, our model predicts that the Left will make most gains in Germany, France, and Ireland.

However, as the table shows, most of the uncertain parties are those that will sit to the right of the EPP, in either the ECR, ID, or as non-attached MEPs. As a result, our overall forecast about the balance of power in the parliament between the left and right, and the likely “sharp right turn” is unlikely to change as a result of changes to these parties’ current or expected group membership.

The “grand coalition” of the EPP and the S&D, which lost a majority in the parliament for the first time in 2019, is set to lose seats, holding 42 per cent of the total, compared to its current 45 per cent. Even with the RE group, the “super grand coalition” of the three centrist groups will only hold 54 per cent of the seats, compared to its current 60 per cent. With the average level of voting cohesion within groups in the European Parliament – which means that each group cannot always guarantee all their MEPs will follow the group voting instructions – 54 per cent of the seats might not be enough for these three groups to guarantee a winning majority when they vote together.

The left-right balance in the parliament will shift dramatically to the right. According to our model, the left coalition – of the S&D, the G/EFA, and the Left – will lose seats, with 33 per cent of the total, compared to the current 35 per cent. And, even if the left coalition can secure the support of RE – which they have done on environmental and social rights issues during the current term – it would hold only 45 per cent of the seats, compared to 50 per cent in the current parliament.

By contrast, the size of the coalitions on the right is set to increase. A centre-right coalition – of the EPP, RE, and the ECR – will likely lose some seats, holding 48 per cent instead of the current 49 per cent. However, a “populist right coalition” – made up of the EPP, the ECR, and ID – will increase their share of the seats from 43 per cent to 49 per cent. In addition, the majority of the non-attached MEPs are from extreme right parties, meaning that with their support, majority coalitions could form to the right of RE for the first time in the history of the European Parliament. The “pivotal MEP” in the next parliament is likely to be in the EPP group, rather than in the centrist RE (or previously Liberal) group for the first time.

Finally, our model predicts that the “EU-critics” on the radical right and radical left will increase dramatically to hold 37 per cent of the seats, compared to 30 per cent in the current parliament.

A centrist grand coalition (EPP + S&D, usually also with RE) typically won on budgets, budgetary control, culture and education, economic and monetary affairs, foreign affairs, internal market and consumer protection, legal affairs, and transport and tourism.

A centre + left coalition (S&D + RE+ G/EFA + the Left) usually won on civil liberties and justice and home affairs, development, employment and social affairs, environment, and women’s rights and gender equality.

A centre + right coalition (EPP + RE + ECR, and sometimes ID) usually won on agriculture and rural development, fisheries, industry and research, and international trade.

Given the Euroscepticism of the ECR and ID, and some national parties in the EPP, we could therefore see majorities in the next parliament in support of more economic, fiscal, and regulatory freedom for member states. This bloc would be likely to vote against proposals from the commission to enforce common rules and instead side with the growing group of national governments – such as those in Hungary, Italy, Slovakia, and Sweden – which are pushing for less interference from Brussels in national economic, fiscal, and regulatory policies.

[Cyrano]

Ricky_v garu,
Thank you for posting this, very very interesting.

Given the farmer's protests all over Europe, I would expect the results even more in favour of right, soverignist & eu sceptics than this forecast. Greens will be further weakened. Media - MSM & SM will shapre the narrative and therefore the outcome as well, the former rooting for status quo and the latter will be increasingly used by the right & the sceptics.

[ricky_v]

all good, Cyrano saar; whats the news from the seine btw? saw that the jupiter replaced his pm with attal, any political compulsions / ramifications for this move that you foresee in the french society, especially with the looming mep elections? also, would you mind answering the below:

• what is the common french view of eu and mep elections as a whole

• do the mep netas come to visit their "constituency", as it were? whats the level of discussion between local neta, state neta and mep neta?, whats the distribution of power like?

• who are the mep for france accountable to? the french assembly or jupiter?

• do regular french comment on the mep at all? whats the ground view in terms of popularity of discourse?

• finally, whats your take on the upcoming french mep elections, i see that the farmer protests there are quite large

[Cyrano]

French govt is an elite clique that is divorced from the "popular classes" and has a lot of contempt for everyone who they see as below them.

Attal has no experience or real qualifications except being born with a silver spoon and has gone to the right schools and has the connections. On top of it, he is handsome and openly gay. The media is gaga on him.

The education minister Mme Oudea Castra (wife of ex société générale bank CEO named in Panama papers, who was investigated for money laundering by the bank until they suddenly dropped the charges) has their kids in private school, said she was compelled to do so since there was lot of teacher absenteeism but then she was proven to be lying, still shamelessly stays in the job.

The new foreign minister has no qualifications except being Attal's ex boyfriend, can't speak 2 lines in French without making 6 mistakes.

Another young minister was running a lobby consultancy before she joined the govt.

The popular opinion is that they are running the country into the ground, but the alternatives are no different.

Le Pen has her own version of Attal called Bardella, another pea brained idiot.

So who is really running the country? The brussels mafia. MEPs are powerless before the EC and Von der Lying's machine.

Between ECB, E Commission , EP and E Council they have totally gamed the system. No country is really sovereign to anything. Be it Ukraine or Immigration or trade deals or Agriculture.

The whole system is a stinking mess of regulations and rules and lately environment jingoism. Hopeless.

[ricky_v]

The new foreign minister has no qualifications except being Attal's ex boyfriend, can't speak 2 lines in French without making 6 mistakes.

So who is really running the country? The brussels mafia. MEPs are powerless before the EC and Von der Lying's machine.

Between ECB, E Commission , EP and E Council they have totally gamed the system. No country is really sovereign to anything. Be it Ukraine or Immigration or trade deals or Agriculture.

yeah, that is the same feeling i got from frenchie media, lol at the new fm and his inability to properly communicate in the local language; india needs a level headed french government at all times, they are i would say our line to eu and wider nato, there have been many instances where the french government has batted on goi's sides in important matters, and this was when we were internationally and locally quite weak

they are also sort of the defacto leader of the pigs or the med countries in the eu, and after the australia submarine saga and the formation of the aukus, a spurned partner in the indo-pacific region

[Cyrano]

For a long time I was hoping that there is a kind of deep state and a few thinking heads in the French establishment that goes beyond the govt of the day and maintains policy continuity at least on strategic matters.

That belief is hanging by a thread now.

There is nothing that can prevent the current French govt from rolling back any policy or trade or arms deals if a Joseph Borrel or Von Der Lying interfere.

Indian govt needs to be very careful and take this into account.

[Cyrano]

Example: Macron has reportedly said in Brussels or Sweden last week that he puts the French nuclear deterrent at the service of Eu interests.

It's a HUGE statement and a policy bombshell. He asked no one before making such a statement.

What has compelled him to make such a statement? On whose behest? Against what quid pro quo? No one knows. Most of the MSM here is worse than our 'godi media ', no one is even talking about it, much less discuss and debate what this humungous statement implies, except some fringe right wing party.

https://tass.com/world/1741331

[Aditya_V]

There is nothing called media, there Congressi, foreign media yes.

[sanman]

Germany wants Artillery Shells from India

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNOadLexVHA

[hgupta]

Yeah that ain’t happening if they are gonna sanction Indian companies.

[prahaar]

Following is Germany track record with respect to exporting small arms or other weapons to India:

German arms company Heckler & Koch to ‘no longer supply undemocratic, corrupt countries’ (Year 2016)
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 44981.html

Kashmir: army human rights record raises barrier before German arms exports (Year 2021):
https://www.telegraphindia.com/india/se ... id/1807272

Germany and Austria refuse to sell small arms to Indian states with 'poor' human rights records (Year 2021)
https://www.indiatoday.in/nation/story/ ... 2011-02-20

[sanman]

European Analysis of India's Rise as a Great Power

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uyz2am5J3qw

[drnayar]

Germany wants Artillery Shells from India

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNOadLexVHA

for ukreeen !

[Haresh]

Why is the mayor of Tehran welcome in Brussels but not Nigel Farage?

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why ... el-farage/

It doesn't help that Mayor of Brussels is a Peacefool

https://www.google.com/search?q=Emir+Ki ... s-wiz#ip=1

[Haresh]

Schoolchildren are converting to Islam 'out of fear' in German schools: Study warns Christians feel they are outsiders and are desperate to try and fit in since huge migrant influx

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... hools.html