Agni-I/SR: Strategic Implications (Thread 2)

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 07 Feb 2002 04:28

<blockquote>quote:<hr>Originally posted by sunil sainis:
Hi,(apropos to a conversation with Rupak) I am still juggling with the reason for the Pakistani angst over the Agni SR. <hr></blockquote>Sunil, Thinking about your thoughts.Actually, it may not be as complicated as all that. The Pakis have constantly indulged in a "game" with India. The fact that people (and leaders of nations)can play "games" with each other can be confirmed from several popular books on the subject - written by psychologists - so you don't ned to be a psychologist to realise this.The last line in the Ayaz article is <blockquote>quote:<hr> A powerful response must be given to dissuade the BJP government from its suicidal course.
<hr></blockquote>The Paki "game" has constantly been to "match" India with an action that sends signals to two groups:a) To Indian leaders saying that they have no advantageb) To the Pakistani people - telling them that Pakistan can outclass pathetic India in every move.Going back - one finds Pakistan giving a "beftting response" to every Indian action. Pakistan has expected Indian leaders to play this game by the rules, expecting to be able to respond easily and publicly.

Agni test-Paki Ghauri test
Indian nuke tests - Paki "response" tests
Call Pakistan a terrorist sponsor- call India a state sponsor of terrorism
India list of 20 - Paki list of 20

There is a definite game being played, and the game is frustrated by an inability to respond openly and publicly and adequately.The Ghauri vs Prithvi debate was a "victory" for Pakistan. The Prithvi had a short range, (short and dark), It was liquid fuelled (ugh, low caste) and needed a lot of support and care. ThePaki Ghauri and Long Dong whatevers were solid fuelled, long ranged and generally more "handsome than and superior to" the Prithvi.Now suddenly the short ranged Agni has been flaunted as a vulgar (in Paki eyes) signal directed against Pakistan and it does not have any of the "inferior" characteristics of Prithvi that were causing joy in Pakistan. And Pak cannot respond with something "superior" because of Uncle sitting in Pakistan. Hence the angst.footnote: An aside: with both nations, India and Pakistan having developed out of a similar mindset, games like external validation etc are common on both sides.This "war" very nearly spilled over into an internet forum war in which BR and Pakdef would have spent much of their bandwidth competing with each other.If there is any single contribution I can claim to have made to BR forums - it is stopping this competiton and BR-Pakdef linkage - like "India-Pakistan"

kgoan · Post by **kgoan** » 07 Feb 2002 05:30

Sunil: This may sound a bit strange, but try it on for size.India has always maintained that it's primary security threat was China. This goes all the way back to IG. Part of Pakistan's security has always rested on the fact that India cannot concentrate fully on Pakistan. When it does, as we've seen in the buildup since 12/13, India's coercive ability is not just large, it's absolutely overwhelming.I think that psychologically, the Paks never expected to face India's full force. India's ambitions to look beyond Pakistan, without ever "solving" that problem, gave them a bit of security. The realisation that India now intends to "solve the problem" has them in a quandry. They wanted our attention, now they've got it, and they're just beginning to realise what it means.The security that Pakistan got from the fact that India in a sense never took them seriously as a threat, which really, really annoyed their "tall, fair and tight a$$ed" sense of superiority, has just disappeared.I don't think they know how to handle it.--------
Note: Some people may find it strange that I say that India didn't take the Paks seriously. Try this: In a social and political sense, have a look at the newspapers in India and Paksitan before 9-11. What you'll see is the absolute fixation of Pakistan with India. Even in regional rags. This goes across all areas, movies, arts, economics etc. India dominates Pakistan economically, socially, politically, intellectually and in every other way you can think of. The reverse simply doesn't occur.

James Bund · Post by **James Bund** » 07 Feb 2002 05:36

Interesting thesis kgaon.Care to elaborate on it? Are Paks closet Indians?Are they Indian wannabes?

kgoan · Post by **kgoan** » 07 Feb 2002 05:50

James, a quote from Nawaz Shariff's wife: "India has become what Pakistan dreamed of becoming". Or something to that effect. I read that here on another thread, but can't find it now. Says it all really.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 07 Feb 2002 05:52

<blockquote>quote:<hr>Originally posted by kgoan:

the Paks never expected to face India's full force. India's ambitions to look beyond Pakistan, without ever "solving" that problem, gave them a bit of security. <hr></blockquote>Spot on kgoanSorry - but this is all going beyond the mandate of this thread.Maybe I shouldn't have posted my post above.

jrjrao · Post by **jrjrao** » 07 Feb 2002 07:39

Pardon me for one more thread-tangential post.The key point of what KGoan writes, and what Shiv highlights, is reinforced by this quote from a nice find by Reggie (in the now penultimate Pak related folder):
<blockquote>quote:<hr>
Pakistan has a history of hearing only what it wants to hear, maintaining the delusion that it is India's equal, when in fact it has as much chance of prevailing in war as Canada would if it challenged the United States.
<hr></blockquote>
Okay, okay, back to a google search for that Agni-III launch!

Priyank · Post by **Priyank** » 07 Feb 2002 07:47

Subbu,Even though I am not a rocket scientist like Arun, let me pop a few of your ballons.

First of all, the manoeuvring RV of the Agni is purely meant for increasing the following :1. Accuracy ( Or in other words, reducing the CEP. )
2. Range ( According to Arun's calculations. ) Theoretically, the manoeuvring RV can also move in a curving zigzag pattern in the last phase of its flight to make life hard for ABM systems. However, I donot know whether this is true or not. Maybe Arun can help us out.

Using the manoeuvring RV for anything else is highly far-fetched. Quite a few people in this thread have envisaged using a ballistic missile to hit mobile targets like carriers and other ships. This is utter hogwash. There is no way that a RV moving at hypersonic speeds can hunt down mobile targets. At such speeds there isn't much manoeuvring that can be done, especially in the last moments of the flight.You talk of using some kind of aerodynamic braking to slow down the RV to supersonic speeds and then deploying all kinds of goodies. I donot know whether this is possible or not ( Calling Arun again

). Even if it is possible, then it is not practical from a military point of view. If one slows down the RV to supersonic speeds then it becomes vulnerable to conventional air defence weaponry. Also, long range ballistic missiles are not accurate enought to do precision bombing with conventional warheads and submunitions. In addition, using the Agni with a conventional warhead and submunitions to take out relatively small targets is a huge waste. There are cruise missiles and aircraft delivered ASMs and LGBs for this purpose.Inspite of the usual MoD and GoI misinformation, the Agni was never designed with a conventional warhead in mind. It was designed to deliver nuclear warheads with reasonable accuracy against large, high value ground targets. Period. Any other fanciful thoughts are precisely that - fanciful. - Priyank.

Arun_S · Post by **Arun_S** » 07 Feb 2002 08:16

<blockquote>quote:<hr>1) what if the RV is designed to increase drag or better fly like a glider (in principle) after burnout and re-entry so that it gains horizontal velocity instead of vertical velocity, resulting in range gain and perhaps becoming into a cruising RV?? perhaps doesn't need sub-munitions! <hr></blockquote>The bold part of the statement is on the dot for the Agni's RV, as the picture of Dr Kalam in Weapons Of Peace shows (the picture slide, 2 pages before page 353, where Dr.Kalam is explaining Agni's trajectory). No comments on the moving target question.

Raman · Post by **Raman** » 07 Feb 2002 08:48

<blockquote>quote:<hr>Originally posted by sunil sainis:
...
But this leaves a lot of things unanswered. For example.. what makes the Agni SR more pakistan specific than say Kilo-Klubs or the Novators. Why ignore the IN? strange indeed.. I am quite stuck here.. and would greatly appreciate it if forum members would spare a few minutes for this.<hr></blockquote>Sunil,Here's my theory. Despite that Puke's propensity for befitting replies, there are certain fields that they don't even bother comparing because the disparity goes beyond the 10:1 Puki:Yindoo ratio (or whatever the current going rate is).Space launch and satellite systems being a case in point --- even they do not bother comparing Insat/IRS/TES with their Bandar series.

I see the same thing happening with respect to the navy. Out-of-sight, out-of-mind?Second, all the military scenarios they discuss is usually completely army, with airforce being secondary, and navy hiding behind skirts. The most they expect from their navy is the Agosta causing some of our resources to be dedicated to ASW and perhaps causing a lucky hit on one of our ships. In the puki mind, naval warfare is not considered seriously, if at all.++Rajesh

Sunil · Post by **Sunil** » 07 Feb 2002 09:21

Hi, Thank you for taking some time to think about this. Shiv,
So if i understand you right, this is `psychology' stuff, i.e. the pakistanis want to be seen `responding' to the indian weapons test but they can't so their `policy and opinion makers' are resorting to loud talk. so this brings to mind the following question: why didn't they do this for the `cruise missile' tests? either they did not consider the `cruise' missiles a real threat or were in a position to effect their `responses'? Why didn't the PJ-10 or Klub-Kilos bruise their egos? I am not saying that you are wrong, only that if you're pov is correct then we need to look for evidence of a pakistani `response' to the BrahMos and the Klub and that is an interesting direction to move in. 
Kgoan, I am not sure i follow you: you seem to be saying that the response to the Agni SR is part of a general spread of panicky views that have emerged in Pakistan in the face of the IA's mobilisation. This could indeed be the case, but the response is far from `knee-jerk'. We aren't seeing one-liners here, the response seems very focussed. The contrast between the Prithvi and the Agni is always presented and somehow this appears (in the Pakistani defence community's mind) to be strongly linked to the state of their deterrence. I spent some time watching Brig.(R) A. R. Siddiqi (S P Cohen's pal), and some others on paknews yesterday. They had a bunch of different views about why we tested it at the present time, but the `pakistani-specificity' of Agni SR was absolutely clear to each. This to me indicated that there was more there than met the eye. There is something that has convinced them that the Agni SR is more of a threat than the Prithvi is/was. To the rest of the junta,the only thing i can recall about the pakistani `response' (to the PJ-10) is that there was a Exocet test from a PN sub and the PN Admiral made a statement about the PN being fully a part of the nuclear deterrence.. at the time i had only one idea of what that could mean.. but maybe i am wrong and there is more to it. So if anyone else remembers anything now would be a good time to bring it up.

bored_desi · Post by **bored_desi** » 07 Feb 2002 09:38

Stepping into paki shoes i see no damn difference between agni s/r and agni l/r. After all both have the potential to smoke paki a$$ to the high heaven if they are stupid enough to make india to use this capability.
So the only explanation can be that the pakis think that this test can be classified as an offensive action and that there exists some sympathy which it can garner by raising this issue diplomatically in every forum. Maybe they thought that chacha would take pity and come out diplomatically on their side.

Sahastra · Post by **Sahastra** » 07 Feb 2002 09:53

Stepping into paki shoes i see no damn difference between agni s/r and agni l/r.PChupunkar,You are repeating the same thing for the umpteenth time now (And it's slightly irritating too). Pakis DO see a difference between teh AGNI-II (L/R) and AGNI-I (S/R). The two missiles mean differently in all sense, as far as strategic implications are concerned.Despite all the noises that were made after AGNI-II testing there were no doubts in the minds of Pakistanis that AGNI-II was China specific. Similarly, there isn't an iota of doubt in their minds that AGNI-I (S/R) is Pakistan specific. Therein lies the difference. Most of the startegic implications of a missile in 700 km range has already been covered by the forum-gurus and are not worth repeating, but a missile of this range has definitely givena lot of sleepless nights to the strategists across the border. Their everyday writings/editorials are a reflection of the frustration at the helplessness of being unable to respond. For reasons that are indeed a matter of discussion, Prithvi never scared them and they were dead sure that AGNI-II was unlikely to be used against them. This new AGNI (S/R) seems to be taking them off-balance in an unexpected manner.

bored_desi · Post by **bored_desi** » 07 Feb 2002 10:37

Sahastra
Paki strategist's are dumbass morons. If they were good strategists they would seek an equitable peace settlement with India and get on with building their lives, instead of provoking a showdown with India.
These so called strategists have their head buried in the sand. Whats their record of achievement
1) Complete destruction of the internal paki economy and all institutions.
2) Balance of payments crisis with near default.
3) Independence of Bangladesh
4) Finally loss of their so called strategic depth in afghanistan
5) And a damocles sword over their head in the form of the Durand line. Another thing in case the pakis are dumb enough not to know. Every armament we buy or build has pakistan written all over it. If this were not true then the MoD babus would not sanction it. All this talk about agni2 (or 3 whatever) being only china specific is dumbass logic

kgoan · Post by **kgoan** » 07 Feb 2002 11:04

Sunil>> I am not sure i follow you: you seem to be saying that the response to the Agni SR is part of a general spread of panicky views that have emerged in Pakistan in the face of the IA's mobilisation. This could indeed be the case, but the response is far from `knee-jerk'. We aren't seeing one-liners here, the response seems very focussed.Sunil:I'm not focusing on specific aspects or views. I'm tring to understand where they're coming from. There is a context to Pak statements. Specifically, the schizoid nature of Pak elites is, in my view, a reflection of the governing class' method of power distribution and use.Specifically, I think that there are some rules of thumb that the Pak elites have when interacting between themselves. The question is what are these rules? For example, if a N Sethi, is arrested by Shariff, a senior ISI guy comes to him, apologises and says "don't worry". The context implies an understanding, even among those considered "dissidents" at the time.The other point is that the Pak elite lack a mechanism for the exchange of power. Instead, power shifts on a subtle basis based on intangibles such as status, who's perceived to be "up" at a given time, who's got what friends, who's managed to convince whom of their view point etc. This fluidity in the day-to-day exercise of power between an amorphous mass translates into the "schizoid" behaviour we usually see.This is a social syteem, where the reward is absolute power, regardless of which field it's being exercised in, it could be the local mullah, or a Cowasjee with his shipping fleets, or the latest US favored general, all these little Hitlers are locked into the system. And the system pays very well, if you're in the elite.This is not a system that is suicidal.Now in the context of their nuclear "redlines", how do we see what is important to the elite? Not what we think should be important. The Agni test, and the focus on Pakistan that the keep harping on is IMO, not about India at all. It's about the power shift underway inside the RAPE class. There's a new lot trying to push their way in. The "moderates" as the US categorises them.The problem is that the new lot MAY try and interfere with the perks and priviliges of others. Consequently, the India focus is IMO, an attempt by to keep Paks "ideology" of "India is the danger", "it's all India's fault", "we must be wary of India, look at their new missile" etc, safe. It's only this ideology that guarantees the PA it's position. As the Paks themselves say, "Pakistan is not a nation with an army, Pakistan is an army with a nation".IOW, a lot of the current statements relate more to the internal power battles of the RAPE class, than to any specific external influence. Note: I'm aware that we need to differentiate between what is an internal battle, and what will be the external manifestations, which will impact on India. I see the RAPE power battle as still on. A lot of statements that come out need to beweighed a to see if they're trying to send a message or if it's just the detritus of their internal struggles.

anilK · Post by **anilK** » 07 Feb 2002 11:12

excellent point raised by sunil sainis and rajesh raman. I think the reason for ignoring the threat from sea/air, while making a hell of a noise about agni vs ghauri thing has two reasons.1) The entire paki establishment, right from the start in 1947, is kow-towing the military because they know who the big boss is. So ISPR, Foreign office etc. all have been brain washed to such an extent that when you say military, they think it is army..
So for them military balance is balnce on the ground. not on sea and air, which are seen as support services (if at all). It is the army which runs the show and holds the flag.
probably in the early years of independence it might have been true. But since long India has movd into building the airforce and the navy, and I don't think it is really getting into the paki head. They will keep adding to their divisions, make more bunkers, buy tanks, send some more terrorists etc.2)Next is the cultural weakness of islamic societies. Almost all islamic nations have failed to appreciate the role of technology (due to the rejection of technology in their societies) beause that would mean change, and they hate change. Hence modern air and naval power, being completely high tech dominated, these societies do not have the mental confidence/strength to indulge in future projections, strategies, tactical analysis, power projection, independent analysis etc., compromise between air/naval assets vs ground assets etc., that are truly required to make use of these services. Again I do not mean a piece meal strategy, or off-shelf purchase. But a change in thinking that sees, accepts and implements change in an institutional way. After all, it's sea now, later sub-sea, space based, energy-bea, weapons.. there is no fixed point here. it's the change that has to be seen and strategies made accordingly. that is what is lacking.
For now, the leap of faith that is needed to move from a reliance on ground to reliance in air/sea ower is not there.
I have a feeling that in the islamic mind (no offence to anyone in particular) the horse has been replaced by the armored vehicle, and the sword by the Ak-47. The mind is still looking at war in the pre-1900 fashion with cavalry and infantry led armies. This is also the reason I think saddam said the US is a coward because they fight from the air. This is another way of their psyche craving for the medieval glory period.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 07 Feb 2002 12:29

<blockquote>quote:<hr> KgaonThe other point is that the Pak elite lack a mechanism for the exchange of power. Instead, power shifts on a subtle basis based on intangibles such as status, who's perceived to be "up" at a given time, who's got what friends, who's managed to convince whom of their view point etc. This fluidity in the day-to-day exercise of power between an amorphous mass translates into the "schizoid" behaviour we usually see. <hr></blockquote>
Kgaon, You have expressed what I have been thinking ditto. The RAPE class have a basic rule. Be loyal to your clan/group and NOT to the law. Rest of the population have to obey whatever the RAPE class dishes out.When any opinion or message or noise comes out of Pakistan it is meant for atleast one of the three audiences. First is the internal audiences which is required to keep them 'properly' informed. Next is India for saberattling and the third is the rest of the world. They always address these audiences with different tones and they are easy to identify. The reaction to Agni test recently is for the domestic audience.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 07 Feb 2002 18:26

<blockquote>quote:<hr>Originally posted by sunil sainis:
Hi, 
Shiv,
So if i understand you right, this is `psychology' stuff, i.e. the pakistanis want to be seen `responding' to the indian weapons test but they can't so their `policy and opinion makers' are resorting to loud talk.
<hr></blockquote>Sunil - Pakistan does have a complex society so that we hear different reactions from different thinking groups. You may be at least partially right.Still, I was thinking of a scenario in which Pakistan is quietly confident about its ability to hit India with its existing "deterrent". If that was the case what would be the need to respond to every Indian action - including the latest test? The Agni test could have been dismissed as a gimmick that makes little difference to Pakistan's capability. For this reason your interpretation is that Pakistan was planning to "take out" Prithvis and hence Agni is a problem. I really think that the leaders of Pakistan are flaunting a nuclear threat expecting India to get scared and run. In this context I don't think the Prithvi was taken seriously at all. It was seen by Pakistan as having too many drawbacks, while, as kgoan points out, the Agni was "reserved" for China which was expected to take up most of India's attention leaving a smaller "defeatable" Indian force facing Pakistan. Even in this scenario there are too many flaws. The "Take out or ignore Prithvi" game totally ignores the IAF as a nuclear delivery system, and taking out Prithvis won't be that easy. Only one or two have to get through.So what the hell are the Pakis thinking? It is quite likely that they are continuing a longterm game of chronic brinkmanship, which involves trying to scare India ("the banias will run in their dhotis") while building up confidence at home by symbols of "befitting responses" to India's every move.If you put yourself in the place of a Pakistani General leading forces into a war you have to commit forces here and there and make decisions. In a reasonably evenly matched battle - you will have some local victories and defeats. As a Paki General you do not worry too much about human costs or setbacks to national education program funding because of your war. Pakistani generals IMO are willing to risk war expecting a stalemate which will be brought to an end by "international pressure". They do not worry about costs to their population, as a political leader might, but they will risk war gambling that certain factors will bring war to a grinding halt - which at best will give them a bargaining chip and at worst will bleed India and keep India "down". The Paki Generals know that this calculation (if accurate and true) is upset by India doing anything that may actually win a war - and their nukes were an "insurance" against this. The Agni signals to Pakistan that the "hindu" madmen may actually want to fight a nuclear war. Hence more rants against "hindu fundamentalist" BJP. Perhaps Pakistan's last hope will be the defeat of a BJP government with the possibility that some other government may go soft on them.

geeth · Post by **geeth** » 07 Feb 2002 18:46

>>>Pakis DO see a difference between teh AGNI-II (L/R) and AGNI-I (S/R). The two missiles mean differently in all sense, as far as strategic implications are concerned.Sahastra, let me repeat what Chupunkar says..How does it matter to the pakis whether Agni S/R or L/R is going to fall on their head?One can be fairly sure that these missiles would be nucleat tipped. Using conventional warheads will be prohibitively costly. U can use Prithvi's for that. Also, having solid propellent with a fairly large dia will restrict their moves in 'jerky' cross-country run on Tatra or similar trucks.If I were in their shoes, I would feel a bit more happy to let a Agni S/R fall on the head than L/R one. Because, the chances of shooting down the S/R one is better than the L/R one. Yes, from the Indian point of view, a S/R Agni (if at all that is the one) makes some sense - it would save some cost due to (a) reentry vehicle would be less sophisticated and (b) smaller > better handling and less costly.If cost is not considered a deciding factor for nuclear arsenel, I would prefer to dig pits under St. Thomas Mount in Chennai and store some Agni L/Rs there. When the time comes,fire it in North-Westerly direction..No need to cut two holes - one for the bigger dog and another one for the smaller dog.

Umrao · Post by **Umrao** » 07 Feb 2002 18:47

Its all perception.In pakistan the public have been fed on the perception that1) One Pakistani is equal to 10 Indians.2) Pakistani armed forces can easily defeat India.
They have done so in 1971, only because of the treachery of Bengalis Pakistan lost East Bengal.3) India is poor country ridden with caste feuds and communal violence.4) The Paki ding dongs, ghauri etc are more accurate than any of the Indian stuff.5) The paki nukes are superior to Indian failed tests.6) The Pakis are the protectors and torch bearers of Islam.This is the stuff the average Abdul of the street is fed daily. The RAPE class know the truth is otherwise and this class teams up with the Kuldip Nayyar , N Ram kind of left wing loonies and create dissent in the Indians.Hence it is imperative that this time around India needs to give a sound thrashing to the Pakistani armed forces, (Kargil was mild lathi charge and an expensive one too) so that there is no doubt left in the average Abdul's mind that paki generals have been misleading that country to dogs.

Peeyoosh · Post by **Peeyoosh** » 07 Feb 2002 18:50

ShivOne or two nuke tipped Prithvis may kill 25,000 people - a disaster but Pakistan survives. Heck, India lost 25,000 people in the earthquake at Gujarat - and at a national level we took that in our stride.100 Short ranged Agnis means that Pakistan, the country is extinct. Consider:IA takes Lahore, thrusting towards Karachi.PA explodes 2 nuclear mines to halt IAIndia uses nukes on Sarghoda and maybe 3 - 6 military targets with an assurance any nuke response from Pak would be met with a 100 missile attack - would that be possible without the short ranger Agni? Intenratinal forces could not halt it (ballistic missiles, especially rail and road mobile are tough to KO). If we built up such a force of Agni-2s, that would generate an uneeded repsonse form other players.Is that the difference?Peeyoosh

jrjrao · Post by **jrjrao** » 07 Feb 2002 18:53

Washington Times article.Missile defense constants

Sunil · Post by **Sunil** » 07 Feb 2002 19:05

Hi, Kgoan, The power struggle between the Pakistani elites still leaves open the following questions: Why can the `moderates' use the Agni SR to rattle the established chaps? Why is the "indian belligerance" coming as a surprise to some people who were "sold on Hamid Gul's Islamist fantasy" (Aftab Anwer in the Nation). ? What about the Agni SR signals more "Indian belligerence" than other systems? or more specifically why not just make a fuss about the Shaheen-1 (PRC-M9) which has a similar range? do you see my point? AnilG,I think you are right about the Pakistani army's central position in the scheme of things, but are you suggesting that with the Agni SR India can hit more `army targets' than we could with sea based missiles? As regards `Islamic Societies' being unable to grasp the importance of technology, I don't think i agree with that p.o.v., as a matter of fact where military technology is involved, in many cases governments of islamic nations have been at the forefront of acquiring modern technology. (check out the RJAF/PAF/RSAF's acquisition list, most of these `islamic countries' make it a point to look better armed than their enemies.. and `looking better' in the present day involves having `modern technology'.) PChupankar, I think you are ignoring the cost differential between the Agni SR and the Agni IR. Shiv,A general in the position that you have mentioned knows that he cannot get by without international attention. Without international attention/aid he cannot rule his country. If forced in such a condition to use a nuclear option, he may choose to use his limited nuclear force in such a way that it minimizes the response and gets him what he craves, i.e. the pakistani first strike does two thingsa) renders india incapable of responding in a way that does not weaken its `deterrence' vis-a-vis china and b) gives the international community the `leverage'/`reason' it needs to stick its head in the middle of the situation and prevail on a `weakened india' to avoid a nuclear response. This is only way a general trapped in the situation that you have described would fight a nuclear war and there is something about the Agni SR that makes the `general' wonder whether even this is possible. People have repeatedly told the pakistanis that fighting a nuclear war is _not_ possible. However this does not mean that the Pakistanis have actually been listening. So I am trying to look beyond the breakdown of deterrence. This puts the onus on pakistan as they have the more comprehensive list of `thresholds'. In such a discussion the point is if these `thresholds' are crossed: will the pakistanis run and hide? or will they attempt another `tactical brilliance' (this time with their nuclear weapons)? If they choose the latter how will they use them? Those are the questions i am looking at. (all this is probably relevant on the Pakistan Nuclear Doctrine thread but on this thread I am looking to see if there is a correlation between the Agni SR and Pakistanis post breakdown of deterrence visions).

Umrao · Post by **Umrao** » 07 Feb 2002 19:15

" Why is the "indian belligerance" coming as a surprise to some people who were "sold on Hamid Gul's Islamist fantasy" (Aftab Anwer in the Nation). ? What about the Agni SR signals more "Indian belligerence" than other systems? [/b]We should not see Agni tests in isolation,
consider this that Uncle is knee deep involved thru the good offices of CP.GOI must have dropped enough hints to CP and he in turn must have told Mushy's people about the gravity of the situation.It is not that Paki (Rape) elite do not know the capabilities, it is the will this time to follow through and do what it takes that must have rattled them.Uncle knows this time it is for real.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 07 Feb 2002 19:49

Sunil - I am sure that all nuclear weapon armed states would like to predict a situation in which "breakdown of deterrence" would occur. I get the general impression that Pakistani leaders after 1965 have been "rational" in that they have distanced themselves from direct military assault on India and have preferred to use the cover of proxies. They have tended to distance themselves from actions that could be directly blamed on them, and could perhaps hold them accountable, and put them at some risk personally at least as "marked men". Note that Osama did not bother to behave in this "rational" fashion. As long as Pakistan has rational leaders, I think they will root for self-preservation.Self preservation becomes more difficult once a nuclear war starts - and these Paki generals have not even been willing to wage an openly declared conventional war.If my statements are right, then the Pakis have considered a tit-for tat capability and the China factor as "sufficient deterrence" - that is that India has been deterred enough to not even cross the LOC (like in Kargil) for fear of invoking a Pakistani nuclear response.Is it possible that they (Pakis) had no intention of actually fighting a nuclear war, and expected that India too had no such intention - leading to a status quo based on deterrence. Leading from this, is it really possible that to the Pakis, the Agni test symbolises a breakdown of their deterrent against India, with India being the agressor. Are the Pakistanis suddenly worried that all the bad things they have heard about Hindu fundamentalists are true and that madmen in India are willing to fight a nuclear war. In other words, Paki has "thinking" been thrown into a tizzy - with no clear idea of how their deterrent can now be made to look scary to a warmongering hindu fundoo government. But what has one SR Agni test done to make them feel this way so suddenly? Naaaaah. It can't be right. I think the Pakis may just be playing their usual "match India" game. The way they have run their country, I am not so sure that they are thinking beyond the usual need to feed their egos, keep their people deluded and say "We are ahead of India". But your scenario is certainly an interesting alternate view - and I will watch statements from Pakistan carefully to try and judge what the thinking (if any) seems to be. It becomes especially important if Musharraf has Osama like aspirations - or if he is replaced by an irrational Osama type general.

bored_desi · Post by **bored_desi** » 07 Feb 2002 20:25

Almost everyone here indicates that there is a cost differential between the Agni S/R and Agni L/R.
I disagree . I think those of you who believe that are missing out one of the biggest items and that is the command and control system needed to maintain these missiles on full alert (especially if you want to maintain second strike capability via land based missiles). The command and control system would cost the same for each missile and the cost of the warhead would also be the same for both (dependent on warhead yield equivalence).
These costs are way higher than the costs of the delivery system (read missile) itself. Another thing, if you field both s/r and l/r then you are introducing additional overheads to maintain adequate deterence against the pakis as well as the chicom. Instead having a dual use missile shield (or atleast as much as possible) would atleast minimize the size of the deployment to reduce costs in both the short run or the long run.

Rye · Post by **Rye** » 07 Feb 2002 20:35

<blockquote>quote:<hr>Originally posted by pchupunkar:
Almost everyone here indicates that there is a cost differential between the Agni S/R and Agni L/R.
I disagree .<hr></blockquote>You seem to be under the impression that there can be no engineering/scientific reason for fielding the Agni SR. Unless one knows specific details of the differences between Agni SR and Agni LR, having strong opinions on this subject is an exercise in mindless grandstanding. I am sure our nation's scientists have enough and more reason to verify the performance of these weapons under different parameters. If only you had as much faith in their abilities, as you seem to have on the US (and its ability to solve India's problems), you would realize that your opinions are based on very little facts.

krsai · Post by **krsai** » 07 Feb 2002 21:24

Some factors I feel why the jittery pakis are fearing our A1-SRs.Lets take No Dong [whatever name they have given for it].
[*] Though the range of ND is about 700 to 1000kms / warhead
dependend, the CEP of ND is about 4000meters - that is 4 kms.
- The fear here is pakis do not feel comfortable about their
nuke warheads capabilities - yields may not match to this
CEPs. Radiations apart, does not defeat India on paper
viz doctrine. - Not sure if the NK'ns did give the pakis the more error
corrected versions to pakis - Pl note we confisicated their
shipment over the seas once that had these things - DRDO
and Indian scientists verified this/ can't remember or have
link to it. I suspect the seizure to be the parts of GPS versions.[*] Off date there was 'nt a successful test by NK'ns on the ND
including the two tests of pakis and one of Iran. Hence, this
will cause sleepless nights to pakis till they feel their versions
of NDs are better than A1-SRs [they are now engaged!

!].[*] I am not sure if they are solid propellant ones? expert can
tell that. If not it sure a problem to face the A1-SRs. it's a
nightmare for the pakis, man![*] Forget their indigenous capabilities - till date they have'nt
yet done something to claim, hence their dependence to
china and NK. At this time of GOTUS, and after 911, Uncle
will be more watchfull and will have to listen to CIA reports
about paki dealings and movements. Else, USA has to
answer its democracy/freedom loving people. They can't
let the pakis go free handed any more. That was before 911.India, stands apart going by doing everything by "first principles".
Thanks to many here, and I stole these words. Nothing can stop
us, and nothing or the most powerful weapons with us will make
anybody fear of living together for peace, except those thinking
in evil terms. Being Evil is what bothering them a lot. The evils
are running.

Sunil · Post by **Sunil** » 08 Feb 2002 00:44

Spinrao, I think you are hitting on the `reasons' for USG not disapproving of the test. This increases their leverage. pchupunkar,Think of the cost(from india's perspective) of deploying `X' agni LR + `Y' Prithvi v/s `X+Y' agni SR (all aimed at Pakistan). The command and control would be a constant in such a calculation. The maintence costs are impossible to predict but consider the costs from a surveillance (by pakistanis) perspective, that cost just went up. K R Sai,The sino-pak and NK-pak missile transfers are a black hole, so it is very hard to talk about which shipment was what. The point is the pakistanis do not need GPS accuracy for striking mobile launchers, if they know the general area, they can go for a high altitude detonation and hope to flatten the general location. (think from the 1965/1971 air-raids by the pakistanis.. the effectiveness was doubtful., but that never deterred them)Shiv, My impression is that the Pakistani leadership has been `rational' post 1971 in that they have accepted the reality that the conventional imbalance cannot be redressed. This has not however made them less bellicose. They have worked on nuclear weapons, unconventional and terrorism, and `strategic depth' as a way around this `conventional imbalance'. All the while the pakistani economy and its people have paid the price. So at the very least `rational' is a word that does not have the same meaning on both sides of the border. What has happened over the years is that the pakistanis have run out `non-doomsday' options. What this implies for `self preservation instinct' is hard to say. A fanatic's rationality and a whore's virginity are elements of fantasy, a fanatic's methodology and a whore's skill are `matter of fact'.

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 08 Feb 2002 02:38

<blockquote>quote:<hr>Originally posted by James Bund:
Interesting thesis kgaon.Care to elaborate on it? Are Paks closet Indians?Are they Indian wannabes?<hr></blockquote>The Jews have an expression "self hating Jew".
Pakistanis are self hating Indians. They invent central asian and arab ancestors, wish to be part of central asia (and now increasingly west asia), talk incessantly of living in the "south asian subcontinent", trying to ignore the fact that the Indian subcontinent existed quite apart from asia during the Triassic period and that their country is a part of this same subcontinent. The Indian tectonic plate below their feet and the Indian ocean to the south are things to be ignored. Thousand of years of their history and culture are also to be ignored, being part of the hated Indian beneath their skin.Back to the topic:
According to this
http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/breaking_4.html
N. Korea preparing new long-range missile test Note that Pakistan is conveniently left out of Tenet's list of customers. Previous Paki tests of NK supplied missiles could even be considered NK missile tests by proxy.Look for a new green painted Pakistani missile soon (to match Agni-III)

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 08 Feb 2002 04:22

<blockquote>quote:<hr>Originally posted by sunil sainis:
My impression is that the Pakistani leadership has been `rational' post 1971 in that they have accepted the reality that the conventional imbalance cannot be redressed. This has not however made them less bellicose. They have worked on nuclear weapons, unconventional and terrorism, and `strategic depth' as a way around this `conventional imbalance'. All the while the pakistani economy and its people have paid the price. So at the very least `rational' is a word that does not have the same meaning on both sides of the border. What has happened over the years is that the pakistanis have run out `non-doomsday' options. What this implies for `self preservation instinct' is hard to say. <hr></blockquote>Sunil, your thesis, looked through my eyes gets very interesting. Two groups seem to have held sway over Pakistan post-1971.The fanatics of course who did all that you say. But they have been covered and financed by the self-serving and self-preserving group. It boils down to what we have been saying all along. A core group of rich corrupt families and wealthy fat army types, encouraging and co-existing with fundamentalists. Each group gets its agenda to work at the expense of all other work. In Pakistan "other work" would mean development and education.If the fanatical group have their say - nuclear weapons will be used against India. It is the self preserving group that Musharraf has joined - because survival of all, fundoos and the greedey self-(pre)servers post- 911 means pretending to support the US.India's position is unenviable. Without a clear picture of who is a self preserver and who is a fundoo - and with both these groups freely mixed in the army and polity, there is no way of telling that "deterrence" works against Pakistan. It may work against some sections but not against others. If the fanatics have their say, deterrence is meaningless, pretty much like Bush said that the US's warheads do not deter terrorists.The self preservers may be tempted to oppose the Agni for any mileage it may give them as "peaceful, rational souls". The fundoos are not deterred but seek to match "hindus" on ideological grounds. Both groups need to tell the parents of Pakistan's 70 million children below 15 years that their sufferng is because of India. I wonder if the deterrence calculus comes in at all in Pakistani reactions to the Agni.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 08 Feb 2002 04:26

<blockquote>quote:<hr>Originally posted by Gerard:
The Jews have an expression "self hating Jew".
Pakistanis are self hating Indians. <hr></blockquote>Beautiful and interesting.Long ago on the forum I had described Pakistan as India gone bad - but I was unable to articulate my thoughts well enough to even begin to explain hat I meant.Sorry about the digression.

Amitabh · Post by **Amitabh** » 08 Feb 2002 04:45

"It's the timing, stupid."That's my instinctive reaction to the preceding discussion about Pakistan's response to the Agni I test (unless I missed someone else making this point). I should clarify that I am not actually calling anyone "stupid" but simply using Clinton's old slogan about the economy.The reason Pakistan has responded strongly to Agni I vs. Klub, PJ-10 or Agni II is that this is the first post-December 13 test. There is a build-up on both sides of the border, India has made demands on Pakistan, and America is leaning oh-so-slightly towards India. Since India has the PR upper hand, Pakistan wants to make India look like an aggressor. Hence, the strong response to Agni I. I don't see why we must get into a complex discussion of Pakistani domestic politics or psychology to interpret this.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 08 Feb 2002 05:17

<blockquote>quote:<hr>Originally posted by Amitabh:
"It's the timing, stupid."
Pakistan wants to make India look like an aggressor.<hr></blockquote>Yes. Timing definitely has something to do with it.But you have yourself stated something that brings Pakistani thought processes, and therefore psychology, squarely into the picture.

Arun_S · Post by **Arun_S** » 08 Feb 2002 08:31

On a related topic, it is a matter of time when next Dhanush is launched and first pictures of the missiles are released. Given a solid motor and 1 ton payload, I would not be surprized to see 7 meter long missile (4.5 meter solid stage and 2.5 meter payload) based on second stage of Agni-2, with a maximum declared range of between 550Km and 750Km. Right size for naval vessals.

Amitabh · Post by **Amitabh** » 08 Feb 2002 20:29

Shiv,This seems to be a simple reaction with the obvious objective of easing the pressure on Pakistan. It's still unclear to me what discussing Pakistan's "psyche" adds to our understanding of the response to the Agni I test, since I expect that any state in this position would respond in a similar manner by trying to shift the blame for the crisis to its opponent.

Raj Malhotra · Post by **Raj Malhotra** » 08 Feb 2002 22:37

Arun Have you noticed that India Today (print addition) has said that Agni-3 will be two stage missile?Some of these other reports talk about it being lighter also.Now I wonder whether they will simply replace the skin of Agni-2 with composite material in order to get a better burn fraction or go the whole hog for a new missile. A new missile may be also with or without a new reentry vehicle. The step by step approach of DRDO seems to indicate something in middle like the second approach.
If my memory serves me right the tech using the PSLV motors should give something like this:- I stage 8.4 tons 2 meters dia and 3.6 meter lengthInterstage space?2nd stage (say half of above) 4.2 tons 2 meter dia and 1.8 meter lengthintersage space?Payload + liquid engine for terminal maneuvering (say same as Agni-2) 2 tons 1 meter dia and 2.5 meter length.It will give a two stage missile something like 9 meter long with dia between 2 to 1 meter, weight around 15 tons.Will this baby fly? How far?As all of these are flights of fantasy, please do not spend two much time over it, simply give an educated guess.What do you think can be other possible combination of Agni-3 using two solid stages, it should be lighter and using proven technology as it is to be out by 2003.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 08 Feb 2002 22:43

Raj and Arun, In Wings of Fire Dr. Kalam says that a solid first stage weighing ~37 tons and ~ 2.8m dia would serve all Indian needs and that it was not authorized to date(of publisihing I guess).
If the A-III is two stage as suggested by print edition of Ind Today I submit that is the first stage that we will be looking at. Add to that the A-II second stage and the standard RV. When it gets tested in 2003 that could be the config.

Raj Malhotra · Post by **Raj Malhotra** » 08 Feb 2002 22:59

Ramana I thought there is talk that Agni-3 is lighter.36 tonne is too heavy now for anything as ICBM is out.I think we will see modifications of PSLV stage 3 which in any case is a proven tech

Umrao · Post by **Umrao** » 08 Feb 2002 23:11

<blockquote>quote:<hr>Originally posted by Raj Malhotra:
Ramana I thought there is talk that Agni-3 is lighter.36 tonne is too heavy now for anything as ICBM is out.I think we will see modifications of PSLV stage 3 which in any case is a proven tech<hr></blockquote>Well according to India
ICBM --> Intra Continental Ballastic Missile, primarily for the delivery of flowers to the emperor of the muddle kingdom.

Arun_S · Post by **Arun_S** » 09 Feb 2002 03:00

Will cross the bridge when it comes. Getting a fatter rocket stage will do the job to make a compact missile, for land & naval use. IMHO it will not make much difference, if it turns out to be either 2.8 meter, 2 meter or 1.8 meter. For the time being what matters is getting the freking current A-1 & 2 models in volume production.