Indus Water Treaty

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
Peregrine
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5193
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Indus Water Treaty

Postby Peregrine » 06 Jul 2018 19:28

X Posted on the Terroristan Thread

Dam confusion

The murky matter of dam building just got murkier. There is no disagreement that Pakistan is years deep into a rolling water crisis. This is multi-faceted. The entire Indus river system on which Pakistan is dependent is undergoing change, not an unusual event in historical terms but not exactly predictable either. Global warming is affecting precipitation — snow and rain — over the mountains to the north of the country and water, its conservation and management, are high on the agenda. Unfortunately the agenda for decades has been dominated by disagreements about the building of large dams both for storage and power generation a consequence of which being that Pakistan is marching steadfastly towards a water-poor future.

Big dams cost billions of dollars and are slow to build. Simply, there is no quick way to build a structure such as this. Even if everything goes to plan — and it almost never does — three to five years as a minimum and more likely longer to get a major dam operational. It is thus puzzling to find the judiciary entering the fray in respect of dams, and whilst we have nothing but the greatest of respect for the judiciary who do a sterling job, it is curious to find them throwing themselves in at the deep end of the dam debate.

The Supreme Court has told the government to immediately start work on the Diamer-Basha and the Mohmand dams. The SC was hearing a petition regarding another controversial dam project — the Kalabagh — and the Chief Justice (CJ) pointed out to those present in the court, including a range of government officials, that the Council of Common Interests (CCI) and everybody else were agreed on the need for the two dams, and then went on to make a surprising appeal to the general public for contributions to a fund that would be administered by the SC to help underwrite their building. The SC was acting with the best of intentions, but by no stretch of imagination is dam construction and funding under the purview of the judiciary. A rethink as to dams, judicial intervention therein, may be the wisest way forward.

Cheers Image

Falijee
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9172
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Indus Water Treaty

Postby Falijee » 08 Jul 2018 18:32

X POSTED FROM TERRORISTAN

What Will Happen To This "White Elephant" Dam Now !

Alarming stage as Tarbela Dam touches dead level for first time in Pakistan’s history

ISLAMABAD – The water situation in Pakistan has aggravated to the very alarming situation after the water level at Tarbela Dam touched its dead level during monsoon season in July, for the first time in country’s history.The Indus River System Authority (Irsa) officials said that they never observed this critical stage during the rainy season.IRSA spokesperson Khalid Rana, talking to a leading English daily, said that the major reason behind this dangerous situation is no good rainfall in the catchment areas of the dam during last monsoon spell.
No official announcement yet "blaming India for this disaster" :D
The water level in the Tarbela Dam was recorded at 1386 feet while its dead level is 1530 feet. Water inflow in the Dam stood at 151,000 cusecs while outflow 123,000 cusecs.At Chashma point, the water inflow was recorded at 187,900 cusecs while storage stood at 181,000 acrefeet.Meanwhile, the water storage level in the dam was 1,122 feet against its dead level of 1,050 feet but it has also started depleting.
However, talking about overall water storage in the country, Rana said, last year in July at this time water storage level was 7 million acres feet (MAF) but this year it stands at 0.8 to one million acres feet (MAF), he said, adding that coming monsoon spell may help country to overcome the shortage.
Hope is "always" eternal. And then there is always the available "standard excuse" of blaming India :twisted:

Prem
BRF Oldie
Posts: 20793
Joined: 01 Jul 1999 11:31
Location: Weighing and Waiting 8T Yconomy

Re: Indus Water Treaty

Postby Prem » 09 Jul 2018 22:48


SSridhar
Forum Moderator
Posts: 22679
Joined: 05 May 2001 11:31
Location: Chennai

Diamar-Basha Dam

Postby SSridhar » 13 Jul 2018 19:59

Indus dam work creates national fervour in Pakistan - Manu Pubby, ToI
The Pakistani Army and other establishments are rallying behind a controversial dam project on the Indus River in disputed territory that has taken on new wind after India's frustration on attempts by Islamabad to get international funding for years. The issue is set to snowball into a controversy with India opposing the project as it falls in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK).

Potential water wars between the two nations are a reality, with tensions flaring up after the 2016 Uri attack that left 19 soldiers dead. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been vocal on water-sharing pacts between the nations and had famously told a review meeting of the Indus Waters Treaty in 2016 after the Uri attack that “rakt aur paani ek saath nahin beh sakta” (blood and water cannot flow together).

Pakistan Chief Justice Saqib Nisar who ordered the setting up of a public fund for the project, linked raising money for the dam to the 1965 war with India, personally initiating it with a (Pakistani) Rs 1 million donation. “The passion that was seen during the 1965 war would be visible again for the construction of dams,” he said. The 4500 MW Diamer-Bhasha Dam is planned in PoK’s Gilgit-Baltistan.

Pakistani Army Chief Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa has pledged a month’s salary to the fund that has reached Rs 50 million within days. Besides the Army and Supreme Court employees, several prominent personalities like former cricketer Shahid Afridi as well as private institutions have pledged funds for the dam. Officers of the Pakistani armed forces are donating two days’ pay while soldiers have been mandated to donate one day’s pay for the project that is being touted as the solution to its water scarcity problems.

Several government controlled institutions have made similar pledges, while appeals are also being made to overseas Pakistanis to donate money for the dam. Others include acting President Muhammad Sadiq Sanjrani and the Habib Bank. While the fund is still away from the estimated Rs 1.6 trillion needed for the dam
, India is watching the matter closely, as it claims the Gilgit-Baltistan area has been successfully lobbying for years against any form of international funding for the mammoth project.

Pakistan has been trying unsuccessfully for years to raise funds from the World Bank and Asian Development Bank but facing frustration after the bodies stated that it was on disputed territory. A more recent attempt to bring it under the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) also did not go through after Beijing put up an ownership rights clause on the mega project.


The basic question is: OK, all this funding fervour is all right, but the construction of this huge dam needs dollah, plenty of dollah in fact. Pakistan currency is not even worth the paper it is printed on. So, where are they going to get the dollah from?

My theory therefore: this 'funding fervour' is another huge scam!!

ArjunPandit
BRFite
Posts: 1118
Joined: 29 Mar 2017 06:37

Re: Indus Water Treaty

Postby ArjunPandit » 13 Jul 2018 23:04

^^^why dollah?? they have all the labour and technology on earth.

SSridhar
Forum Moderator
Posts: 22679
Joined: 05 May 2001 11:31
Location: Chennai

Re: Indus Water Treaty

Postby SSridhar » 14 Jul 2018 07:45

The Djinns could spread a net and catch all the bombs falling down from IAF bombers, as it happened in 1965. But, the net cannot hold the water !

RCase
BRFite
Posts: 1873
Joined: 02 Sep 2011 22:50
Location: Awaiting the sabbath of Fry djinns

Re: Diamar-Basha Dam

Postby RCase » 14 Jul 2018 10:05

SSridhar wrote:Indus dam work creates national fervour in Pakistan - Manu Pubby, ToI
...
Pakistani Army Chief Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa has pledged a month’s salary to the fund that has reached Rs 50 million within days. Besides the Army and Supreme Court employees, several prominent personalities like former cricketer Shahid Afridi as well as private institutions have pledged funds for the dam. Officers of the Pakistani armed forces are donating two days’ pay while soldiers have been mandated to donate one day’s pay for the project that is being touted as the solution to its water scarcity problems.

Several government controlled institutions have made similar pledges, while appeals are also being made to overseas Pakistanis to donate money for the dam. Others include acting President Muhammad Sadiq Sanjrani and the Habib Bank. While the fund is still away from the estimated Rs 1.6 trillion needed for the dam
, India is watching the matter closely, as it claims the Gilgit-Baltistan area has been successfully lobbying for years against any form of international funding for the mammoth project.
...


The basic question is: OK, all this funding fervour is all right, but the construction of this huge dam needs dollah, plenty of dollah in fact. Pakistan currency is not even worth the paper it is printed on. So, where are they going to get the dollah from?

My theory therefore: this 'funding fervour' is another huge scam!!

Big difference between Pledge and Donate. A bombastic Pakistani's words are absolutely worthless. Absolute scam by the big wigs to just pledge but not intend to carry through with their pledge.

nachiket
Forum Moderator
Posts: 6147
Joined: 02 Dec 2008 10:49

Re: Diamar-Basha Dam

Postby nachiket » 20 Jul 2018 01:31

SSridhar wrote:The basic question is: OK, all this funding fervour is all right, but the construction of this huge dam needs dollah, plenty of dollah in fact. Pakistan currency is not even worth the paper it is printed on. So, where are they going to get the dollah from?

My theory therefore: this 'funding fervour' is another huge scam!!

Forget dollahs they aren't going to collect even a fraction of the paki rupee value of the dam build cost. This guy in Dawn has presented the figures which show how ridiculous this whole exercise is: https://www.d a w n.com/news/1419554

Now let’s do some math on this. As of writing, the total amount deposited in this account was Rs32 million. Since the account is shown as being open since July 6, let’s assume only three of those days were functioning; that comes to almost Rs10m per day. Next let’s assume this will pick up pace, since tacit pressure has come to apply on banks to raise funds from their employees (in a meeting held on Tuesday). Exactly how ‘voluntary’ the contributions will be is a separate conversation. For the moment, if we assume that on average, the account sees an inflow of Rs20m per day (which is highly optimistic), then it will take 72,500 days to reach the target, or 199 years.

Manish_P
BRFite
Posts: 1323
Joined: 25 Mar 2010 17:34

Re: Indus Water Treaty

Postby Manish_P » 20 Jul 2018 14:23

All Gulf based Pakis will be commanded to beg after every friday prayers and a special target be set for Ramadan month. All Haj going pakis can be asked to ensure that they beg and bring back at least twice/thrice the amount spent on going to Saudi else they will not be allowed to land in Pak. Hopefully that will bring it down to 99 years at least.

By that time the oil would have dried up, the Saudi land would be overrun by the Pakis, who will then start fantasizing of daming the Nile :)

Peregrine
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5193
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Indus Water Treaty

Postby Peregrine » 20 Jul 2018 15:37

Manish_P wrote:All Gulf based Pakis will be commanded to beg after every friday prayers and a special target be set for Ramadan month. All Haj going pakis can be asked to ensure that they beg and bring back at least twice/thrice the amount spent on going to Saudi else they will not be allowed to land in Pak. Hopefully that will bring it down to 99 years at least.

By that time the oil would have dried up, the Saudi land would be overrun by the Pakis, who will then start fantasizing of damming the Nile :)
Manish_P Ji :

Hold your Horses Shrimaan Ji! All the Terroristanis will beg for Asylum in India and our Sickular and Lutyen's Reprobates and Tankers (substitute the Next Third Letter in the Alphabet for "T") will be shouting themselves hoarse and begging for these "Poor Terroristani Brethren and Sisteren" to be given Refuge in India!

Cheers Image

Manish_P
BRFite
Posts: 1323
Joined: 25 Mar 2010 17:34

Re: Indus Water Treaty

Postby Manish_P » 20 Jul 2018 19:36

Peregrine Sahab, IMVHO and with all due respect to you, in 99 years time, with current demographic and immigration rate trends, they will not have to beg..

Peregrine
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5193
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Indus Water Treaty

Postby Peregrine » 20 Jul 2018 20:16

The art of giving a dam(n)

There are many facets to the water crisis in Pakistan, including poor governance and mismanagement, argues Shahid Mehmood

We all know the prediction: by 2025, Pakistan will run out of fresh water. This predict has been around for some time, but no government has done much to address this life-and-death issue. Recently, our very active chief justice (CJ) and the Supreme Court have ordered the construction of two mega dams. This step has received wide acclaim, as have many other initiatives of the CJ, such as his person visits to hospitals to check governance. The Apex Court went a step further by establishing an account to garner donations for these two dams.

However, I would like to humbly submit that there are other matters of serious concern that have not been taken up by the court. You see, it is not simply a matter of building a large dam. Rather, what lies at the heart of this issue is poor governance and an inability to comprehend what a sustainable, long-term solution entails.

The first issue is dams, whose primary purpose is to store water and to produce hydel power. Pakistan already has a few. But even their combined might is not enough to fulfil these purposes. Water availability for various purposes is at best random or patchy, and hydel electricity (even at peak flows of water in summer) reaches only 30 percent of the total electricity production. Transporting electricity from dams to areas of demand require substantial capital investments in lieu of transmission requirements. Where will this investment come from for electricity transmission?

Recourse, without a doubt, will have to be taken to contracting further debt (domestic and foreign) to set up transmission lines. For the sake of argument, let us say that this will also be achieved. Building newer dams would increase water storage capacity and hydel electricity production, yet there is no guarantee that water scarcity would be substantially curtailed or that load shedding would become history. That’s because these are problems of a different nature. Pakistan’s electricity (or power) sector’s main problem is poor governance and not the paucity of production capacity. Its transmission and distribution system is out-dated and colonial, losses due to faulty lines and theft are high, receivables are piling up all the time and pricing is done on political considerations rather than market mechanism. The end result, in brief, is that any increase in power production also increases the circular debt. Unless the governance issues are resolved, the added power production from these two dams will surely add to the genie of circular debt. Moreover, as I extensively discussed in an article in these pages, there are better alternatives to be considered.

Onto the issue of water availability and scarcity, and again it is not difficult to realise that merely building dams is not the answer. While it is true that water flows over time have dropped, Pakistan still receives considerable amount of water. The real problem lies in mismanagement, and lack of any policy for efficient use of water and water conservation. Of all the available water, almost 85 percent is used for agriculture while remaining 15 percent is used for other purposes (industry and domestic use). In using up this much water, Pakistan’s crop production is one of the most inefficient and wasteful. This fact has been known for a long time, yet there has been no policy to inhibit this wastage of a most precious resource. Other countries have successfully divested away from such waste by implementing technological applications like drip irrigation, sensors and satellites. Yet in Pakistan, there is hardly any worthwhile government level initiative to apply technology towards efficient water use in agriculture.

Absence of policy and pricing is evident in the non-agricultural sector too. Given that this sector receives only 15 percent of the total available water, it was even more imperative to have a policy for conserving and efficiently using water. But water is either not priced properly or free, and its distribution is unequal. Water metering is absent, and water recycling schemes (if any) only help in converting a small amount of total water consumed back to human consumption. In cities like Karachi and twin cities of Islamabad and Rawalpindi, for example, most areas come under severe water stress in peak summers. But at the same time, posh localities in these cities receive uninterrupted supply at least two to three times a day, used to propagate luxuries like expansive, Mughal-style lawns when a single tree or two would do. Just to gain the right perspective on policy, when California was struck with prolonged drought in recent times, its state government banned lawns.

So, even if the dams are built and water plus power availability does increase, it is highly unlikely that it would make much of a difference unless governance and policy issues are addressed. Add to this the fact that Pakistan’s runaway population would be around 225 million (or more) by the time these dams become operational, and we will have a situation where per capita availability of water and power would either be the same or less. Put another way, just like governance and policy is a necessary complement to make dams successful, so is population control. Again, Pakistan has yet to see any effective population control measures.

What was discussed above is by no means the end of the considerations that go hand in hand with building mega structures like dams. There are plenty of other issues that should have come under deliberation. I’ll mention a few, albeit briefly. First, Pakistan’s already existing hydel power sources are badly managed and maintained, and mostly of them were completed way behind schedule. Neelum-Jhelum is a flawless example of this. At least two decades behind schedule and costing many more billions than originally planned (extracted from taxpayers), the newly installed turbines stopped working even before they could produce a single watt. Who is responsible, and what is the guarantee that the two dams won’t meet the same fate? I have yet to see this question addressed. Second, had the honourable judges ever parsed through the details of why Daimer-Bhasha’s cost had escalated to $12 billion, they would have encountered the strange anomaly that the even in the aftermath of the global recession, when the cost of raw materials, petrol and wages, etc., took a mighty tumble for many years, the cost of this dam kept increasing. If their honourable lordships had pressed for details, they would have come across dubious methods of ‘escalating’ costs and some shady ‘formulae’ used for these cost escalations. It would have turned out that the costs of projects like dams sky rocket due to questionable tactics, and there might have been a good chance of cost revision towards the lower side. Moreover, governments of the future would have been warned to desist from such practices, thus saving precious financial resources in the long run. Of course, none of these were discussed or pondered.

I’ll now conclude the article by suggesting that no Pakistani doubts the sincerity of the honourable judges in ameliorating the ills that afflict Pakistan. Pakistan needs dams, and the SC’s initiative is welcome. But in striving to ameliorate these shortcomings, our lordships are making the same mistake as various governments committed. Solutions to pressing problems have to be sustainable and innovative. The SC’s directive of building dams, unfortunately, does not address these criterion.

Cheers Image


Return to “Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Dumal and 22 guests