Indus Water Treaty

[Muppalla]

what's the topography of the area from River Sindh in Ladakh to Himachal and to directly into Uttar Pradesh? There is a tiny boder between Himachal and UP.

[Prem]

[sanjaykumar]

Frank gibberish by the Paki, now concerned about the ecology; they are squealing like a stuck pig.

Superb and even tempered exposition by Brahma Chellaney. Jyotri Malhotra is largely irrelevant. Literally.

[Dipanker]

looks rethink on IWT is hotting up..Modi ji taking briefing on IWT on Monday. we need more structures to impound more water. We also let lot of water into Pakistan on the 3 rivers allotted to India. Punjab cant let water into Haryana but ok with leaving water for Pakis.

Not a single drop of water from these 3 rivers should be allowed to flow into Pakistan except in the event of flood. All this water can be used in Haryana, Delhi, and Rajasthan which they so desperately need. Now if only Punjab would agree for it, but they won't even do their part of SYL.

[RamSuresh]

What is the feasibility of road tunnels having been designed to be used as water tunnels (they are used as emergency flood drains in some countries). There is a 14 km road tunnel under construction between Solang and Keylong. This could easily look like a water tunnel connecting Chenab and Beas.

[sanjaykumar]

Interesting, can you show a map of the topography of the area?

[Lilo]

Geology of the Himalayan system(lofty zanskar range is the major water divide) precludes much usage or diversion from Indus & Jhelum (apart to the sparcely populated & hilly kashmir & ladakh regions).

Chenab's water however can be brought into the north western Indian plains by linking to Ravi-Beas-Sutlej system. viewtopic.php?p=2048413#p2048413

Also there is no other alternative to a step by step approach to withdrawing from IWT.

1)Do a review.
2)Rightfully claim misallocation & underallocation.
3)Demand share in Chenab waters atleast during the peak season.
4)Link the treaty to other factors like clamp down on terror , access to afghanistan & central asia.
5)Demand a renegotiation - which will likely be shot down by the Pakis
6)Declare a notice period for withdrawing from the treaty.
7)From step 5) itself simultaneously implement the engineering project to link Chenab to North western canal system in India - via tunnel.Unless we dont start this project & sink serious money, Pakis wont believe that we are serious on diverting Chenab's waters.
8 )Keep offering Pakis a negotiating branch during every stage of this process to willingly allow them to come to a bilateral settlement on our demands in 4)& 5).

[sanjaykumar]

I think 80/20 split is equitable but with India getting the 80%.

[Lilo]

In addition to my previous post the Chenab(chandrabhaga) to Ravi link tunnel (opening into Budhil nala near Kugti) will be 30 Km only !

Time to start digging !

https://www.google.co.in/maps/@32.44300 ... 485089,11z

[SSridhar]

The following table is a good indicator of how positions evolved (From the BR SRR article on IWT):

Table 1 Indus River System Estimates and Allocations

Code: Select all

Plan	                India	                                        Pakistan
------                 ---------                                    ------------
Initial Estimate	   119 MAF	                                         118 MAF 
Initial Indian	      29 MAF	                                          90 MAF
Initial Pakistani	   15.5 MAF	                                       102.5 MAF
Revised Indian	    All of the ER + 7% WR	                         None of the ER plus 93% of the WR
Revised Pakistani    30% of ER  and none of the WR                    70% of ER + all of WR
World Bank	        Entire flow of ER	                             Entire flow of the WR

ER - Eastern Rivers, WR - Western Rivers

[manjgu]

Ssridhar..u r our local resident expert. a) With the present infra/dams on various rivers, what is our capability to throtle Pakis during lean rain season. and otherwise. b) what can be done over next 3 years to throtle them more c) >3 years... what can be done ( short of abrogating the treaty a..b..c..).

[Dilbu]

Indus Waters Treaty: Pakistan must fear Modi’s water war more than Indian military

According to 2015-16 Pakistan economic survey, “agriculture sector is a vital component of Pakistan’s economy as it provides the raw materials to down the line industries and helps in poverty alleviation impact.” In the last year, the farm sector contracted by -0.19 percent mainly due to decrease in production of cotton, rice and maize, the survey says. In other words closing the water tap, even partially, could result in famine and agrarian economic crisis for Pakistan that can lead to internal unrest. Pakistan government won’t be needing Indian military then to fight with.

Pakistan’s agricultural output, as that country’s economic survey points out, is closely linked with the availability of irrigation water (logically from Indus region). The situation is already bad. This is what the survey says:
During 2015-16, the availability of water for Kharif 2015 stood at 65.5 million acre feet (MAF) showing a decrease of 5.5 percent over Kharif 2014 and 2.4 percent less than the normal supplies of 67.1 MAF. During Rabi season 2015-16, the water availability remained at 32.9 MAF, which is 0.6 percent less than Rabi 2014-15 and 9.6 percent less than the normal availability of 36.4 MAF.

For Pakistan’s fragile economy, Modi’s water warfare will be tough to deal with even though it might still avoid a full-fledged war flashing its nuclear warheads. Having said this, it wouldn’t be easy for India to tinker with the IWT since it will raise questions on the fate of other international water treaties, mainly with China. It will be hard call for Modi to take, but not an impossible one if the PM convinces the world that his action is a necessary, unavoidable outcome of Pakistan’s continuing hostility on the Indian soil. Modi’s action on IWT will be justified then. But, that’ll push the country, born out of contempt in 1947, to the corner.
One can only guess the ultimate consequences then.

[SSridhar]

a) With the present infra/dams on various rivers, what is our capability to throtle Pakis during lean rain season. and otherwise. b) what can be done over next 3 years to throtle them more c) >3 years... what can be done ( short of abrogating the treaty a..b..c..).

There is still leakage of water from our ERs to Pakistan. This must be stopped forthwith. The ERs beyond our borders must be bone-dry at all times. This can be achieved easily and as a first step. We have touched nothing of our entitlements on the WR (or, if we have done so, it is minuscule) as shown in Table below

India's Irrigation Entitlement on Western Rivers (in Acre-Feet)

Code: Select all

The Indus	 Jhelum	  Chenab	 Total
----------  ----------   -------  -------
 70,000	   400,000	 231,000	701,000

We have entitlements for other purposes also on the WRs. I have no idea of how much is exploited. My surmise is nothing at all.
India's Entitlement for "other" Storages

Code: Select all

River Name	                    General Storage (MAF)	Power Storage (MAF)	Flood Storage (MAF)
--------                        ------------------         ----------------    -----------------
Indus	                           0.25	                      0.15	               Nil
Jhelum (Excluding Jhelum Main)	  0.50	                      0.25	               0.75
Jhelum Main	                     Nil	                       Nil	           As in Para 9, Annexure E
Chenab (Excluding Chenab Main)	  0.50	                      0.60	                Nil
Chenab Main	                     Nil	                       0.60	                Nil

Even these will amount to a significant loss for a severely water-starved and water-mismanaged Pakistan.

Even as we do all these, we have to constantly keep reminding everyone that the IWT was a one-sided treaty, India had been generous beyond wildest possibilities, that India can no longer afford to continue like this, that Pakistan has exploited this generosity by stalling even entitlements due to us under the IWT and therefore India is compelled to revise its generosity etc. This must be done on a daily basis just like how the Chinese keep reiterating their 'core interests' which are non-negotiable according to them.

[Aditya_V]

Since Pakis are using terror and everythign and anything against as, is there any way which we can drop in a few bombs with GPS tracker which we blow up at Paki dams. This will cripple Paki Punjab.

[chetak]

Since Pakis are using terror and everythign and anything against as, is there any way which we can drop in a few bombs with GPS tracker which we blow up at Paki dams. This will cripple Paki Punjab.

and what if they do the same to us??

[Aditya_V]

How? Ours will flow down with the current and theirs will need to climb up/ fly to dam gates apart from having propulsion for hundreds of kilometers.

[chetak]

How? Ours will flow down with the current and theirs will need to climb up/ fly to dam gates apart from having propulsion for hundreds of kilometers.

Talking about bomb damage onlee and loss of assets.

Delivery mechanisms can vary.

[Kashi]

Some news trickling in

The Hindu@the_hindu
India decided to suspend Indus water commission talks until #Pakistan -sponsored #terror in Indian ends: sources http://bit.ly/2d37BMh

and

Times of India@timesofindia
India to expedite construction of 3 dams on Chenab river— Pakul Dul Dam, Sawalkot Dam and Bursar Dam, reports news agency ANI

[symontk]

In addition to my previous post the Chenab(chandrabhaga) to Ravi link tunnel (opening into Budhil nala near Kugti) will be 30 Km only !

Time to start digging !

https://www.google.co.in/maps/@32.44300 ... 485089,11z

I dont think we need to drill that much. Check the 3d map, you can drill from Murang, Kwang, Kamri to streams which join at Kugti. There is only a ICE covered mountain in between.

We can built a dam there (Murang, Kwang, Kamri) to bring up the water level and then get to the stream at Kugti

[la.khan]

Since Pakis are using terror and everythign and anything against as, is there any way which we can drop in a few bombs with GPS tracker which we blow up at Paki dams. This will cripple Paki Punjab.

and what if they do the same to us??

Aditya_V: I don't know if we can do that, at least it will not be easy. Today, the only bomb that can take down a dam is a nuclear weapon. Or, huge amount of conventional explosives. The most recent when dams were blown up were in Europe, during the Second World War. I saw this in some Hollywood WWII film

Chetak: Pakis will NOT be able to do the same to us if we can ALWAYS maintain a certain amount of water in a dam. If they try something similar, the dam will burst, causing massive floods, anything downstream will be washed away, killing thousands of Pakjabis, affecting lakhs of Pakis, inundating millions of acres of arable land in Pakijab. The aftermath of this will be water borne diseases, food shortages, starvation/hunger, food riots etc.

[Dipanker]

and what if they do the same to us??

Aditya_V: I don't know if we can do that, at least it will not be easy. Today, the only bomb that can take down a dam is a nuclear weapon. Or, huge amount of conventional explosives. The most recent when dams were blown up were in Europe, during the Second World War. I saw this in some Hollywood WWII film

Chetak: Pakis will NOT be able to do the same to us if we can ALWAYS maintain a certain amount of water in a dam. If they try something similar, the dam will burst, causing massive floods, anything downstream will be washed away, killing thousands of Pakjabis, affecting lakhs of Pakis, inundating millions of acres of arable land in Pakijab. The aftermath of this will be water borne diseases, food shortages, starvation/hunger, food riots etc.

Force 10 From Navarone ?

[Prem]

These guys claim Indus is 95% in Pakistan and cannot be stopped. Basically jehlum and Chenab need top be diverted to save the water from Pakistan.

[Rudradev]

^^ Excellent. That claim should be given widespread publicity, whether true or not. It completely kills the Pakis' rationale for claiming Kashmir on any non-Islamist basis (water security) and shows that their territorial ambitions are based in the fact that they are an ideological "greedy state" to use C. Fair's terminology.

[Rudradev]

Honestly, a lot of what Modi GOI is doing these days is overturning many sacred-camels of the Nehruvian Diplomacy days... like questioning IWT and mooting a Baluch govt in exile... which the Pakis took for granted we would never do. By leaving these sacred camels untouched all this time, we were in fact feeding in to the Paki ability to spew out a lot of completely bogus propaganda. Now the very fact of our making a few token moves against IWT is causing Paki anal-cysts to come out with arguments that undermine their own propaganda theses. Raising the illegal annexation of Baluchistan by the Pakis is another such move.

[Lilo]

In addition to my previous post the Chenab(chandrabhaga) to Ravi link tunnel (opening into Budhil nala near Kugti) will be 30 Km only !

Time to start digging !

https://www.google.co.in/maps/@32.44300 ... 485089,11z

I dont think we need to drill that much. Check the 3d map, you can drill from Murang, Kwang, Kamri to streams which join at Kugti. There is only a ICE covered mountain in between.

We can built a dam there (Murang, Kwang, Kamri) to bring up the water level and then get to the stream at Kugti

Symontok ji,
Yes, from Kwang to Kugti its 23 Km onlee.
When tunneling is done via Sequential excavation method(SEM) with boomers it may take 5-7 years(comparative wild guess).

[ramana]

Dipanker, The movie was Dambusters and the RAF squadron was 633 Dam Busters Squadron.

the bomb was a spherical shaped weapon developed by Barnes Wallis.

[Dipanker]

^ Thanks Ramana, that is impressive bit of trivia I didn't know, hats off!

[Lilo]

It seems the above outlined scheme for a link tunnel b/w Chandrabagha (chenab) & Ravi is same as the "Marhu Tunnel" proposed in 1958 (with 20,000 cusecs capacity) before the IWT was inked.
Oddly iam unable to locate this place "Marhu" in the map of himachal.

In another development today,

@ANI_news #FLASH: India to expedite construction on 3 dams on River Chenab; Pakul Dul Dam, Sawalkot Dam and Bursar Dam

https://twitter.com/ANI_news/status/780370073215119360

Sawalkot Dam in udhampur district is by far the largest of these .Wonder how much is the water storage potential here ?

[saip]

^ Thanks Ramana, that is impressive bit of trivia I didn't know, hats off!

They used a bouncing bomb to target the dams and skip over the heavy torpedo nets the Germans put up.

[la.khan]

Aditya_V: I don't know if we can do that, at least it will not be easy. Today, the only bomb that can take down a dam is a nuclear weapon. Or, huge amount of conventional explosives. The most recent when dams were blown up were in Europe, during the Second World War. I saw this in some Hollywood WWII film

Force 10 From Navarone ?

Dipanker, The movie was Dambusters and the RAF squadron was 633 Dam Busters Squadron.

the bomb was a spherical shaped weapon developed by Barnes Wallis.

Ramana: This is the event you were referring to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Chastise and the movie based on the event https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Dam_Busters_(film).

I distinctly recollect it was a Hollywood film, and it was in colour. May be Force 10 from Navaronne. I recollect it was done by people on the ground, not with airforce bombers. The protagonists in the film, the Allies, want to stop Nazis capture a bridge but they do not have enough explosives to blowup the bridge; so, they target a dam a little upstream of the bridge, use up all the explosives to cause a breach of the dam. The breach eventually causes the dam to burst and the bridge downstream is destroyed. Typical Hollywood WWII propaganda, masala film

[rahulm]

RAF 617 was the Dam Busters sqn equipped with specially modified AVRO Lancasters and is based on a book of the same name.

I borrowed the book from the NDA library and was one of the first I read cover to cover without putting it down. Saw the film later. Riveting stuff. I still remember most of the scenes in the movie. The other super movie is Das Boot.

Wallis was a genius to come up with the bouncing bomb idea. Kudos to RAF the British PM for approving what many considered a loony idea.

G George, ex RAF 480 sqm, a permanent exhibit at the Australian War Museum, Canberra was the first Lancastr I saw. The only reason I went to see it was because it was the closet I could get to the Dam Busters book and movie. Beautiful aircraft.

The breaching of the dams stymied weapons and ship steel making in the Fatherland. There is a precedent for using water as a weapon.

[Gagan]

To be successful all the armchair tunnel diggers must remember that the volume of water grows as the river goes downstream.
Successful diversion is when the river up north is diverted downstream in its course to the river south of it.
Merely diverting a river when it has just arisen will not divert the volume of water that jingoes seek.

I have a theory about the Tulbul Navigation project linking the Kishenganga to the Jhelum. The theory, and I am no hydrodynamic expert is that the flow of the Jhelum in the valley can be potentially reversed if the Jhelum is diverted southwards near Verinag across the Pir Panjals to empty in the Chenab. If people have travelled into the Valley and seen the Jhelum (& other tributaries - Liddar just before it meets the Jhelum etc), I wonder if this is possible.

Indus can be diverted at several places, one location is in eastern laddakh itself.

It will be great if this is possible!

[Gagan]

The Sawalkote project which India intends to use to generate 1200 MW can be really augmented if the Jhelum can be diverted to the Chenab.
Nixing the Kishenganga/Neelum and then the Jhelum will put paid to La La Land's Neelum Jhelum Project in its entirity. All the dreams of 969 MW there will disappear !

[Dipanker]

Force 10 From Navarone ?

Dipanker, The movie was Dambusters and the RAF squadron was 633 Dam Busters Squadron.

the bomb was a spherical shaped weapon developed by Barnes Wallis.

Ramana: This is the event you were referring to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Chastise and the movie based on the event https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Dam_Busters_(film).

I distinctly recollect it was a Hollywood film, and it was in colour. May be Force 10 from Navaronne. I recollect it was done by people on the ground, not with airforce bombers. The protagonists in the film, the Allies, want to stop Nazis capture a bridge but they do not have enough explosives to blowup the bridge; so, they target a dam a little upstream of the bridge, use up all the explosives to cause a breach of the dam. The breach eventually causes the dam to burst and the bridge downstream is destroyed. Typical Hollywood WWII propaganda, masala film

The movie you are describing here is Force 10 from Navarone.

But in the context of the thread the right answer is Dambusters given by Ramana.

[abhishek_sharma]

Paki: ‘INDUS TREATY CAN’T BE REVOKED UNILATERALLY’

[Pathik]

Paki: ‘INDUS TREATY CAN’T BE REVOKED UNILATERALLY’

Don't think they need to mention that, they know its a rhetoric from India and the time and place of our choosing even for this is up in the air. Quitens the noise down. Aam abduls are already forgetting Uri

[Prem]

[Prem]

Old news with good data

ISLAMABAD: Afghanistan’s authorities with the help of Indian experts have completed the feasibilities and detailed engineering of 12 hydro-power projects with capacity to generate 1,177MW of electricity to be built on the river Kabul.If the 12 projects get completed, they will store 4.7 million acre feet of water squeezing the flow in the river reaching Pakistan.According to a document exclusively available with The News, Indian experts have completed the feasibilities and detailed engineering of the 12 projects to be built on the river Kabul. The authorities in Kabul after completing the tendering process will be initiating construction of multi-purpose water projects on the tributaries of the river Kabul with assistance from the international community. India plans to assist Afghanistan in this initiative, which will adversely impact on Pakistan. The documents also show that the World Bank will provide funding for the 12 dams that will cost $7.079 billion.The most ironic part of the whole episode is that Pakistan’s authorities have failed to develop water uses on the river Kabul as they failed to build the Kalabagh Dam at the site on the Indus where the river Kabul merges with the river Indus.The documents unveil that four hydro-power projects will be constructed in the Punjshir sub-basin. These include the $332 million Totumdara project which will generate 200MW of electricity and have water storage capacity of 332,510 acres feet; the $1.174b Barak project which will generate 100MW of electricity and store 429,830 acres feet of water; $1.078 billion Panjshir (100MW) project with the capacity to store 105,4300 acres feet of water; and the $607 million Baghdara (210MW) project with the capacity to store 324,400 acres feet of water.In the Logur Upper Kabul sub-basin on the river Kabul four more dams are to be built which include the $72 million Haijana project (72MW) with water storage capacity of 178,420 acres feet; $207 million Kajab (15MW) project with water storage capacity of 324,400 acres feet; the $356 million Tangi Wadag (56MW) project with capacity to store 283,850 acres feet; and $51m Gat (86MW) project with water storage capacity of 405,500 acres feet. Four more dams will be built in the Lower Kabul sub-basin, including the $442 million Sarobi project (210MW) with the capacity to store 324,400 acres feet of water; the $1.434 billion Laghman project (1251MW) with water storage capacity of 233,568 acres feet; and the $1.094 billion Konar (A) (94.8MW) and Kama projects (11.5MW).Pakistan and Afghanistan currently share nine rivers with annual flows of about 18.3 million acres feet (MAF) of which the river Kabul accounts for 16.5MAF, while River Chitral, which originates from Pakistan, contributes about 8.5MAF. After it enters Afghanistan this river is called River Kunar. It joins the river Kabul near Jalalabad and then re-enters Pakistan.“Afghanistan has the right to utilise water from the river Kabul as the total flow of Kabul River is 21,000 million cubic meter. But the river Kunar, which contributes 15,000 million cubic meter to the river Kabul, originates from Pakistan.“In the absence of major dams in Pakistan, it is feared that Pakistan will have to buy electricity from Afghanistan, which is the underlying purpose of the above mentioned plan of the Afghan government in collaboration with India.”
Talking about the 4.7 MAF water to be stored in 12 hydropower project being built on river Kabul, Mr Shah said that it was not correct as the water storage would not be more than 2 MAF. H. However, the Afghanistan if tries its best, it can use 2.5 MAF water from river Kabul to irrigate its plain lands at the maximum.

[sanjaykumar]

Those pakis on the television panel appear a little strained in their non-chalance. If India cannot do anything to divert the river flows, why are Pakistanis getting a collective rectal prolapse?

[Paul]

Dambusters was on youtube for some time before it was pulled off. It was an English movie, not Hollywood.

Barnes Wallis also designed the TallBoys Bomb which sunk the Tirpitz in Norway.

Incidentally, Night of the Generals is also there on youtube. Marvellous movie!