Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

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Jarita
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Post by Jarita »

SwamyG wrote:Sadly nobody is there to stop them. Lessons learned from history are just in books sitting on the shelves.

SwamyG, there has to be a nationalist body that will halt this. Gurumurthy, Govindacharya are people to contact in this regard. Only if the government feels the shudders of the trade unions will they stop.
First it was England and now we are enriching italy
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Post by vina »

Jarita wrote:This is where the trade unions need to come in. SOmewhere we have to stop this
Why should it be stopped ?. After all they are selling only 10%. Some amount of public accountability will come in. Govt still has ownership. India's experiene has been that after stake sales, the PSU profitability and performance increases exponentially in most cases. Definitely need BSNL etc to become more professional and accountable and for heavens sake get some more modern accounting and business practices in.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Post by Jarita »

vina wrote:
Jarita wrote:This is where the trade unions need to come in. SOmewhere we have to stop this
Why should it be stopped ?. After all they are selling only 10%. Some amount of public accountability will come in. Govt still has ownership. India's experiene has been that after stake sales, the PSU profitability and performance increases exponentially in most cases. Definitely need BSNL etc to become more professional and accountable and for heavens sake get some more modern accounting and business practices in.

For exactly the trade-off SwamyG has elucidated. Strategic imperative vs. efficiency. We are beginning to see the damages from the rampant sell-offs in the last 10 years now.

If you get a chance read this write-up. It is old and long but highly relevant. Then we can discuss
http://www.portraitofindia.com/liberal1.htm
Last edited by Jarita on 06 Nov 2009 21:31, edited 1 time in total.
vina
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Post by vina »

Jarita wrote:Gurumurthy, Govindacharya are people to contact in this regard.
Glad those particular gents are largely out of circulation. They are just Saffron Prakash Karats. Just as brain dead, but equally dogmatic and obvioulous to facts and stuck in an echo chamber where they can hear nothing but thier own voices!
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Post by SwamyG »

Jarita: You just threw some red meat to the crowd :rotfl:

Vina: NDA too indulged in these kinds of sale. And NDA had a big saffron party in its folds.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Post by Jarita »

SwamyG wrote:Jarita: You just threw some red meat to the crowd :rotfl:

Vina: NDA too indulged in these kinds of sale. And NDA had a big saffron party in its folds.

:-? SwamyG it took me 6 years to unlearn everything I had grasped from so called Elite Indian education inst. and the media. I thought I knew my economics. Need analogies, stories and history to correctly articulate the essence.
This article was very well researched. There is plenty more online.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Post by SwamyG »

One can not look at things purely as black and white, similarly boon or curse. There are pluses and minuses; each country has to arrive at a balance that suits its culture, people and times. IIRC, the first 'limited company' was setup in Florence, Italy way back before 1600. You might like to read the book "Life, Inc." - at least the first few chapters that discuss how 'Corporations' were setup (again predates EICs); the tussle between Monarchy and Wealthy Merchants.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Post by SwamyG »

Modi Model
teaser
But it is the second category, the socio-political one, which is likely to worry foreigners most because it has very deep roots, which, moreover, are watered from time to time by the major and not so major upheavals. At the heart of this problem lies a religion-based social division which most Indians turn a blind eye to at the collective level, but which they nurture very assiduously at the individual level.

Or, as economists would say, this is a classic example where the maximisation of individual utilities does not maximise social utility. One, therefore, hopes that when he speaks tomorrow, the Prime Minister will reassure foreign businessmen on this score.

What he needs to do (but won’t) is to tell the gathering that the Congress has adopted the Narendra Modi model of development because success anywhere is worth emulating. The Modi model consists, at its core, of ensuring that the Government works for the people and not against them.

The success of Gujarat today is the result of just this one thing. The Modi government does its best not to get in the way and ensures that the bureaucracy and service-delivery employees of the Gujarat government pay attention to all the small things that make a difference to peoples’ lives.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Post by tejas »

When even educated people on this forum question selling off parasitic PSU assets is there any hope for Bharat Mata? The GOI has 419 central PSU. Do you know how many we need to maintain our security? How about ZERO?

Even the best run PSU will never be as efficient or innovative as a private company. Why are there no PSU's writng software, designing/building state of the art computer chips, or competing in any fast paced or innovative industries in India or anywhere else? THEY CAN"T.

I read a long time ago an economist estimating the ratio of the rate of return on investment in a private co. vs a PSU of at least 2. IMHO it would be much larger. Why does BHEL have to go begging for supercritcal boiler tech. from Japan? After 50+ years BEL cannot make seeker heads for missiles that private western companies have been doing for 30 years. Up until 2 years ago the majority of BEL's products were of foreign design. Even now the high tech stuff is Israeli designed. And this in arguably one of India's best PSUs.

Indians are among the wealthiest minorities in every country they inhabit. They are poor only in India. This is a direct result of too much gov't. and too little governance. Socialism breeding poverty is a worldwide phenomenon. Those in India who can't or are not willing to wake up and smeel the coffee only perpetuate this misery.

The less said about the parasitic unions in India the better. They belong to a creed which worked slow/stopped working in OFB factories in 1962 on the orders of their patriotic CPI/CPM masters
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Post by SwamyG »

I don't think there is any debate that private companies are more innovative than PSUs. The 'isms' like socialism & capitalism are emotive words at best. It is simple common sense to expect a balance between different entities and not shove all eggs into just one basket - a.k.a private sector (or government sector).

Education? Ah. One all gets educated by watching how the world runs. There are enough rich Indians in India too. The Indians who go abroad are some of the privileged few and/or already shown potential to shine well.

While it is correct to point out the flaws in PSUs; one hopes those are overcome or a healthy public-private parternship is established.

It is a Western notion of all or nothing, either one is pro-government or one is pro-business ithiyaadi. Time to get some balance into running of the country.

All economist in the last 2-3 centuries have studied the Western model of economics - the art of running business with a Western perspective. And when it comes to a country, one does not look just at the rate of investment from a monetary perspective. I would say there are other returns too.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Post by Abhijeet »

Can the people opposed to selling off even minority stakes in PSUs explain what are the strategic imperatives that are impacted by this? The case for private efficiency versus government sloth - especially in India - is well known. What are the strategic imperatives that balance the need for efficiency?
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Post by Virupaksha »

Abhijeet wrote:Can the people opposed to selling off even minority stakes in PSUs explain what are the strategic imperatives that are impacted by this? The case for private efficiency versus government sloth - especially in India - is well known. What are the strategic imperatives that balance the need for efficiency?
Abhijeet,

going by history in India. Significant opposition to sale is done only at two

i)the first public sale
ii) the 50% mark.

Nobody even notices the other sales.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Post by Surya »

Saffron Prakash Karats :rotfl:
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Post by Jarita »

General opposition to random sales

- Strategic imperative - who are we selling too; what are the assets we are selling and how will control of the same be impacted; More important for a developing economy
- Social imperative - In situations of abject poverty need trade-off between efficiency and social good (yes, yes trickle down etc -- has not helped Indias masses in the last 20 years) - this is different for a country like US et al where the populations basic needs are being fulfiled

Media sell-out to foreign firms has literally landed a fifth estate in our midst.
What we are seeing with the mines in India is no different from what Africa has been facing - strategic assets may need to be in the public sector till the country is at a certain level
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Post by Suraj »

There's far too much rhetoric and too few facts on the PSU selloff discussion. Would those who are so interested and have been driving this mini-debate on the subject please do the following as and when information is available:
* List the PSUs in question
* What are the current GoI holding levels of each entity in question
* What are the planned dilution levels of each entity
* What is the sale mechanism - IPO, strategic sale etc

Thanks
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Post by Umrao Das »

Here is list of Garbage units of GOI which are being sustained to get plum postings of political leaders kith & kin.
Big source of corruption and impedement to the defence of the nation. Sell them and buy or make in private sector.
****
here we go.

Factories
Ammunition Factory Khadki (AFK)
Cordite Factory Aruvankadu (CFA)
Engine Factory Avadi (EFA)
Field Gun Factory Kanpur (FGK)
Gun Carriage Factory (GCF)
Grey Iron Foundry (GIF)
Gun and Shell Factory (GSF)
Heavy Alloy Penetrator Project (HAPP)
High Explosive Factory (HEF)
Heavy Vehicle Factory (HVF)
Machine Tool Prototype Factory (MPF)
Metal and Steel Factory (MSF)
Ordnance Clothing Factory Avadi (OCFAV)
Ordnance Cable Factory Chandigarh (OCFC)
Ordnance Clothing Factory Shahjahanpur (OCFS)
Ordnance Equipment Factory Kanpur (OEFC)
Ordnance Equipment Factory Hazratpur (OEFHZ)
Ordnance Factory Ambernath (OFA)
Ordnance Factory Ambajhari (OFAJ)
Ordnance Factory Bhandara (OFBA)
Ordnance Factory Bhusawal (OFBH)
Ordnance Factory Bolangir (OFBOL)
Ordnance Factory Kanpur (OFC)
Ordnance Factory Chandrapur (OFCH)
Ordnance Factory Dumdum (OFDC)
Ordnance Factory Dehu Road (OFDR)
Ordnance Factory Dehradun (OFDUN)
Ordnance Factory Itarsi (OFI)
Ordnance Factory Khamaria (OFK)
Ordnance Factory Katni (OFKAT)
Ordnance Factory Muradnagar (OFM)
Ordnance Factory Project Nalanda (OFN)
Ordnance Factory Project Medak (OFPM)
Ordnance Factory Tiruchirapalli (OFT)
Ordnance Factory Varangaon (OFV)
Opto Electronics Factory (OLF)
Ordnance Parachute Factory (OPF)
Rifle Factory Ishapore (RFI)
Small Arms Factory (SAF)
Vehicle Factory Jabalpur (VFJ)

*****
Sample 1 Ordnance Factory Itarsi

http://ofbindia.gov.in/units/index.php? ... ut&lang=en
click any where you get blank page

sample 2
Small Arms Factory Kanpur

http://ofbindia.gov.in/units/index.php?unit=saf

Sample 3
Rifle factory Ishapore

Note GM is PK Das ( jo kab dekho tho jab PK hi rehatha hai, why so he related to Umrao Das!)
http://ofbindia.gov.in/units/index.php?unit=rfi

Sample 4
Ordnance Parachute Factory Chute khulta nahi , every where blank page but only GM saab is mentioned.
http://ofbindia.gov.in/units/index.php? ... ct&lang=en

Sample 5
http://ofbindia.gov.in/units/index.php? ... ut&lang=en
note the web page designed by GM saab ka son for his Engineering college or MCA
total garbage colors and font and claims most advanced opto electronic sightings.....


sample 6
Ordnance Factory Varangaon
http://ofbindia.gov.in/units/index.php? ... ts&lang=en
But all they claim to manufacture are still being imported...

Sample 7

http://ofbindia.gov.in/units/index.php?unit=oft

Its a blank again...

It goes on and on.

I am sick looking at them.
Last edited by Umrao Das on 07 Nov 2009 09:46, edited 1 time in total.
tejas
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Post by tejas »

Looks like the IPO route for PSUs with a govt. holding exceeding 90%

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/200 ... 821000.htm
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Post by Hari Seldon »

Meanwhile, the biggies (the really big biggies, I mean) are lobbying the PMO intensely in their selfless desire to do Yindia a favor by entering the market here.

Wal-Mart's New India Push
The chairman's meeting with Indian Prime Minister Singh is the latest sign the retail giant is lobbying for greater access to the market.

S Robson Walton, chairman of Wal-Mart Stores, met Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in New Delhi on Wednesday, in what is seen as an effort by the world's second-largest company to press its demand for permission to invest in multi-brand retail.

The $404-billion Wal-Mart, which has a joint venture with the Bharti group that runs the country's largest telco for cash-and-carry wholesale trade and a franchise agreement for front-end retail, has been lobbying hard with the government for permission to allow foreign direct investment (FDI) in multi-brand retail.
This is Mr. Walton's first visit to the country. It highlights the importance of India, the second-fastest growing economy after China, in Wal-Mart's scheme of things.

According to people familiar with the matter, Mr. Walton impressed upon the prime minister the benefits an organised retailer like Wal-Mart can bring to farmers as well as small and medium enterprises and in job creation.
Great. Why not bring those benefits in via a JV, sir? In any case, pls show some net benefits on the ground before aam aadmi here can take your word for it, no? Seems like GoI is of similar mind too.
The conversation last time veered on the Indian establishment asking the retailer to strengthen the supply-chain that could benefit Indian farmers. Mr. McMillon had then said Wal-Mart's progress in India would have no dollar constraint. "We have a $4.8-5.3-billion fund earmaked for our international business. India can use as much as it wants," he had said.

Wal-Mart announced its alliance with Bharti in 2006, but has opened only one cash-and-carry wholesale store since. Mr. McMillon had then said the company was not in a hurry. "Our aim is to get it right."
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Post by KarthikSan »

^^^Mall wart is known to suck it's suppliers blood dry. They are probably facing difficulties selling heavy metal filled fish and other produce from out tarrel than mountain fliends to the north. Their next target is the small Indian farmer who they know is stuck between a rock and a hard place with the corrupt politicians and the middlemen. They will start throwing a bone here and there till they fatten up the prey and then go for the kill. They will play nice till everyone is addicted to everyday low prices and that creepy smiley man. The true colors of the gora sahibs will then be revealed. Mall wart will be a modern day version of the East India Company literally!
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Post by Rahul M »

I'm not much in favour of entry of big players into retail space, all the noise about organised retail notwithstanding. there must be a low enough ceiling to filter out the big players from this space, even if desi. if entry is at all given it should be limited to warehousing facilities for perishable food products.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Post by Singha »

well lack of a good web presence doesnt necessary imply an industry is
incapable or sitting idle. by that yardstick almost all govt run orgs in india
pale in comparison to pvt sector.

but wrt OFB ofcourse a 'truth and reconciliation task force' headed by someone like anand mahindra or ratan tata should be setup for a overall
audit and identify what needs to be done to drag them by their tails into
21st century.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Post by Neshant »

there must be a low enough ceiling to filter out the big players from this space
I agree with that. Having many smaller foreign-local JV and small local players would be better. It would give the farmer & local manufacturers some bargaining power to have a variety of small/medium sized retailers to choose from. I'm thinking more along the lines of the 7-11 type stores.

The only thing Walmart will bring in is a crap load of stuff made in China. Its already been pointed out that the only thing India manages to sell to China is raw materials while China pushes back finished products.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Post by a_bharat »

If GoI works out a deal with Walmart, requiring it to source at least 35% of its merchandise (sold worldwide) from India, then it could be a big boost for our manufacturing sector.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Post by Umrao Das »

Singha wrote:well lack of a good web presence doesnt necessary imply an industry is
incapable or sitting idle. by that yardstick almost all govt run orgs in india
pale in comparison to pvt sector.

but wrt OFB ofcourse a 'truth and reconciliation task force' headed by someone like anand mahindra or ratan tata should be setup for a overall
audit and identify what needs to be done to drag them by their tails into
21st century.
Look at what we are importing and also what is being provided.

Take the Jabalpur factory, they are assembling Leyland, while they have installed capacity and experience with MAn trucks Jonga jeeps Nissan and Nissan Patrol. Note each factory has its own R&D which is Rob & Drink department.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Post by SwamyG »

Abhijeet wrote:Can the people opposed to selling off even minority stakes in PSUs explain what are the strategic imperatives that are impacted by this? The case for private efficiency versus government sloth - especially in India - is well known. What are the strategic imperatives that balance the need for efficiency?
I am not opposed to minority selling or disinvestment per se. I don't want the people to be dependent on just the Government or private sector. Long term I do not like to see we end up with companies that are too big to fail types and that the population are totally dependent on just few of these companies. I used the word "indiscriminate" and that is key in my opinion.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Post by Suraj »

Jarita: The anti-Monsanto post has been moved to the agriculture thread. Please do not post post rhetorical diatribes on this thread. Since you're new here, I'll mention that rhetorical essays with zero cites or references will be deleted.

Regarding the PSU selloff debate, just repeatedly stating the bogey of strategic dangers is not productive, and is just nukkad material; such posts will be moved/deleted in future. The reason I requested additional information is so that there's data behind the claims made.

Interesting new item:
Private facelift for govt data
The commission has roped in Rohini Malkani, an economist with Citigroup, in an honourary position to formulate a format for the government’s macroeconomic reports. Malkani, who brings out similar reports for Citigroup, is expected to bring a sea-change in the way government organisations publish economic data.

The trigger: Economists and analysts have always taken government data with a pinch of salt due to obvious gaps and time lags.

All that may change, courtesy the initiative by the Planning Commission, which is expecting Malkani to help it work out a standard format for maintaining and releasing reports comprising major macroeconomic data. The aim is to make essential data easily accessible in a simple analytical format. The reports will be more than a mass of data and analyse the health of the economy and give an outlook on a monthly basis.

The practice of releasing periodic reports is followed by private banks, economic research organisations and credit rating agencies. But the Planning Commission’s move means all these will face competition.

“We are currently working on the format in which such reports can be prepared and put in the public domain. It will be on the lines of the economic reports put out by private agencies,” said a source in the know of the matter.

The Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC) and the Reserve Bank of India publish reports summarising past data along with their outlook. The government also presents to Parliament a mid-term review of the economy in December and the Economic Survey before the Budget.

But no government agency regularly comes out with any analysis of the data put out by the government. For the record, the finance ministry makes public a monthly update of the economy, but it is a mere compilation of all major economic data without any analysis.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Post by Asit P »

Rahul M wrote:I'm not much in favour of entry of big players into retail space, all the noise about organised retail notwithstanding.
Rahul, am just curious. Any specific reason for it ?
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Post by SwamyG »

Regarding the PSU selloff debate, just repeatedly stating the bogey of strategic dangers is not productive, and is just nukkad material; such posts will be moved/deleted in future. The reason I requested additional information is so that there's data behind the claims made.
Does everything boil down to just numbers; rephrasing does everything boil down to privatization or nationalization?
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Post by Suraj »

No SwamyG - I'm requesting a detailed analysis of the issue, as opposed to a superficial claim made ad nauseum. What is the point of making such a claim if it turns out that all the PSUs in question remain under overwhelming GoI control, with a stake dilution primarily affording greater revenue to GoI ? That is why I requested those interested in the topic to first collect information and then analyze.

In this thread, we have consistently placed an emphasis on detail and data for a long time, and my goal is to continue to drive it that direction. General discussions on strategic autonomy will be moved to the governance thread. Thanks.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Post by archan »

^^ the way you moderate this thread is an example. Great job.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Post by Rahul Mehta »

pandyan wrote:Anyone has insight into what this Madhu Koda guy is doing/has done? There are reports that assets over 4000 Crore were recovered...how did he managed to amass the wealth in under 2 years? Is this the "salary" rate for CM?
Replied in neta-babu thread.

http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 80#p768580
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Post by Umrao Das »

Madhu Koda is Chuvva comapred to Y Rajasekhar Reddy, who has amassed 24,000 crores for himself, not counting the money he pumped into AICC coffers for Congress to win elections. AICC was also hugely funded by Ambanis
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Post by KarthikSan »

^^^Samuel and Co. are bacchas when you dig deep into what Dr. Artiste and family have amassed. :eek:
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Post by SwamyG »

Suraj wrote:No SwamyG - I'm requesting a detailed analysis of the issue, as opposed to a superficial claim made ad nauseum. What is the point of making such a claim if it turns out that all the PSUs in question remain under overwhelming GoI control, with a stake dilution primarily affording greater revenue to GoI ? That is why I requested those interested in the topic to first collect information and then analyze.

In this thread, we have consistently placed an emphasis on detail and data for a long time, and my goal is to continue to drive it that direction. General discussions on strategic autonomy will be moved to the governance thread. Thanks.
I agree with your assessment & demand for backing up claims. Without the references what we say becomes just opinions. Opinions can raise from fear or desire. Unfortunately I am not an economist who can get down to the equations and numbers. I also agree if we are having discussions without much data, we could move this to other threads - the Perspective thread might be another good option.

For folks who are interested, here two links that might be found useful:
1) Disinvestment of India�s Public Sector Units Notes written by Professor L.M.Bhole {Professor at IIT-Mumbai}
2) Department of Disinvestment - India

Suraj: Often in personal finance, be it 401-K or Stocks, MF, ETFs ithiyadi we are asked to diversify and balance our portfolio continuously taking into account our appetite for risk, desired RoI, retirement age etc. Running a country is not the same as running one's personal finance, yet we can pick up traits from each arena. One of the things I learned (correctly or incorrectly) from my Statistics & Decision Making class was quite often what the equations & numbers tell us can be found intuitively valid.

It will be always nice to hear gyan from you gurus. For now having seen have USSR went and how USA is going, I think there is definitely some reason to be suspicious that the answer is somewhere in the middle to the routes those countries took.

Eventually all institutions - Government, Private, Marriage, Education ithiyaadi are all for the benefit of humans. Every institution serves a purpose.

As always, gyan from gurus appreciated.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Post by Rahul Mehta »

KarthikSan wrote:^^^Samuel and Co. are bacchas when you dig deep into what Dr. Artiste and family have amassed. :eek:
Who is Dr Artiste?

.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Post by Yudhajit »

Rahul Mehta wrote: Who is Dr Artiste?
I guess the CM of TN
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Post by Suraj »

Bloomberg's APAC head Will Pesek usually focuses on the East Asia region, but has a fawning article about the RBI's gold purchase. Excerpts:
India Shows Hedge-Fund Savvy With Huge Gold Buy: William Pesek
Barack Obama and Timothy Geithner must be as annoyed as they are bewildered.

Didn’t India get the memo? Developing nations are supposed to keep their excess cash in Treasuries, the U.S. president and his Treasury secretary are no doubt thinking. Gold? That relic of the past that doesn’t pay interest or dividends and can’t be eaten? A fool’s game best left to the dinosaurs out there.
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India’s 200 metric-ton deal wasn’t huge considering how much gold central banks hold. It’s the symbolism that matters as the U.S. struggles to keep the dollar’s slide orderly and panic- free. Consider India the vanguard of central banks more aggressively diversifying reserves away from U.S. assets.

As markets brace for that inevitability, here are four things we can conclude from India’s gold rush.

One, the dollar’s plight just got worse. Mounting U.S. debt is bumping up against a dismal employment picture, a toxic mix that may get the attention of credit-rating companies. This U.S. recovery looks to be a uniquely jobless one, complicating things for a president already grappling with two unpopular wars.

Yes, talk of the dollar’s death is overdone. There is still no obvious replacement. Yet Asia’s tolerance with falling U.S. assets is evaporating. India’s gold grab from the International Monetary Fund’s bullion stash is the latest reminder of that.

Two, India’s got game. China doesn’t talk much about its currency reserves, yet you have to imagine a few top officials in Beijing are red-faced this week. “How on Earth did India beat us to the punch?” policy makers must be asking. China seemed the overwhelming favorite to get the first chunk of the gold the IMF is offloading to shore up its finances.

A question no one can answer yet is whether India will touch off a bidding war among central banks. Not that India cares all that much at this point. As it leapfrogs past Russia to become the ninth-biggest government holder of gold, China is now looking at even higher precious-metals prices.

Hedge-Fund Savvy

While India’s people are major gold hoarders, the government hasn’t been a big one. India really did display the savvy of a hedge fund here. It got what it wanted, surprised markets and will sit back and reap the benefits as gold rallies.

Traders are now betting on who will announce the next big purchase. Will it be China looking to employ its $2.3 trillion of reserves? What about Japan, which has the second-biggest pile of currency? Or Gulf states working to end dollar hegemony? And let’s not forget about Brazil and South Korea. Well done, India.

Three, the IMF is back. The crisis of the last two years put the Washington lending institution back in business. Now it’s flush with fresh liquidity to help the nations that need it most. Along with getting top dollar for its bullion, the IMF managed to avoid shaking up markets.
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Four, central banks are reverting to the past. Almost 100 years ago, John Maynard Keynes chided India for its “ruinous” love of the “barbaric relic.” Perhaps central banks were reading their Keynes over the last two decades, during which anti-gold sentiment pervaded.

The belief that inflation had been defeated made paper currency seem a safe and more practical bet than bars of gold collecting dust. The dollar’s swoon is prompting a bit of revisionist history, putting gold back en vogue. It says much about where the global financial system finds itself.

This gold revival has a clear geographic profile, too. Expect Asian central banks that took the whole “trust-the- Federal-Reserve-to-protect-the-dollar” hype too literally to be especially avid buyers.

If you are looking for the next big industry in Asia, it may just be manufacturing fortified warehouses. Many nations will need a Fort Knox of their own to store all those gold bars as the dollar’s reign falters.
Prem
BRF Oldie
Posts: 21233
Joined: 01 Jul 1999 11:31
Location: Weighing and Waiting 8T Yconomy

Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Post by Prem »

Question for Economic Gurus,
With the value of gold going up and Indians being greedy for gold for the last few decades have now their net worth increased proportionally. Curious to know if this will change the spending habits and further boost GDP.
Vipul
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3727
Joined: 15 Jan 2005 03:30

Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Post by Vipul »

Any info or estimate of the total collective gold holdings by Indians? I have read varying reports upto 40,000 tons.
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