India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

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samuel
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by samuel »

sraj wrote:
Bush has been a slide since J18. NSG is the lowest he can stoop.
Nonetheless, is India worse off than before J18?

Does GoI have a plan to forestall this fait accompli?
Not worse than J18 if it walks. But here is how things seem to work with the US, in my opinion

1. Talk.
2. Friends. Equals. Common mission.
3. Lofty goals.
4. The Bait.
5. Intent discussion and debate.
6. Some preliminary deposit requested.
7. The Switch.
8. The Rush.
9. The fait acompli (meaning if you take it, you get what they gave ya, if you don't you give them a reason to hate ya and clamp you down.).
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by SSridhar »

narayanan wrote: At that point, it is entirely up to the Indian Patriots to go and do what is in the national interest - trade with any IAEA member who is willing to trade with India. I suspect that there will be some. Covertly or overtly, . .
At that point, NSG will churn and the minors who are not in the league of the big boys will be forced to leave the organization, IMHO.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by Rangudu »

There is no fait accompli here, ergo any talk of that is a red herring. The parties that lose most in any effort that even hints at trying a fait accompli are:

1. US - American leadership would lose the trust of a generation of Indian leaders and populace. Plus given the tendency towards minus infinity in US-Russian ties, a second Indian embrace of Russia would ring alarm bells in DC.

2. EU - India will now be less restrained in applying punitive economic measures to take care of obstructionists

3. China - If any evidence of Chinese prodding in NSG comes to light, the next GoI will lose one more factor restraining New Delhi vis a vis China

Even the NPAs know that GoI cannot be given a bad fait accompli. The best they are hoping for is to drag on the NSG process until a potential Obama administration.
enqyoob
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by enqyoob »

And in Case 1b: NSG agrees to clean waiver, but COTUS does not vote that in now.

In this case it's a tough call - I would say wait, because the NSG waiver would not have happened without GOOD-FAITH US administration efforts, but start explicit, overt preparations for dealing with others. Give the COTUS and New POTUS 1 year max to get it through COTUS.

At that point, the rest of the world has agreed with India's view. So there are no grounds for even the US to object, and in fact the US administration may WANT India to go ahead and start trading with others, in order to "win the hearts and minds" of COTUS.

In any case, at the earliest, start work on parallel bilateral deals with Russia, France and even Germany, Japan and Australia.

Actually I feel that China is going to offer India a bilateral nuclear deal in the short term.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by John Snow »

And you think Russia will oblige with out demanding pound of flesh now?

It is amazing to trust unkil when they subverted the transfer of Cryo technology when Ivan was ready to part.
Last edited by John Snow on 28 Aug 2008 20:56, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by Suppiah »

I think, If it gets through NSG US will see to it that Congress approves it asap even if it means rushing through on last day of the session. They wont want other countries to start selling first having made all the 'effort'. It would be like letting Iraq giving all contracts away to ChinaPetroleum and Huawei.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by Rangudu »

"Winning back" and India betrayed by the US is a win in and of itself for Russia. They will demand hard cash but that is something India can part with with greater ease as our GDP increases.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by sraj »

As recently as July 27, 2008, McCain has called for Russia's expulsion from G-8. This was before Georgia.Transcript of McCain on “This Week”
STEPHANOPOULOS: But how is kicking out of the G-8 going to make that better? We need them…

MCCAIN: The G-8…

STEPHANOPOULOS: … to help secure nuclear weapons. We need them to help contain Iran. To kick them out is going to make it harder, isn’t it?

MCCAIN: We need to improve their behavior. We need to make them realize that the G-8 was founded — basically, countries that are democratic, have our values and our goals and shared principles. And President Putin and…
Georgia War Shows 'Weak' Russia, U.S. Official Says
U.S. policymakers have debated whether and how Russia should be punished for its incursion into Georgia. Already, a civil nuclear deal between Russia and the United States appears dead in Congress, and Russia's 13-year effort to join the World Trade Organization is in trouble. Russian officials in recent weeks have disparaged such concerns -- Prime Minister Vladimir Putin this week said he sees "no advantages" to joining the WTO -- but U.S. officials predict Russia will suffer if it becomes isolated.
Question: Does the NSG need Russia more than Russia needs NSG? In fact, how and why does Russia need NSG? Would NSG expel Russia if they supplied 8 more reactors under the existing Kudankulam deal (a retired MEA official who worked on this deal in 1988 under Rajiv Gandhi has stated that the inter-governmental agreement was for 10 reactors).

Acharya: your point about the fast changing international situation over the last year or so leading the US to reevaluate China vis-a-vis India is very pertinent and does have a bearing on how this NSG drama is being played out. They may be coming to the conclusion that India is unlikely to sign up on their terms. If that is the case, so be it.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by RajeshA »

Making the big argument in favor of India

Take a fair call by Robinder Sachdev: Daily News and Analysis India
Is the global regime so weak that it cannot curb pursuit of illegal atoms? If that is the case, then the regime needs to be urgently reformed. It is most regrettable that the NSG countries be allowed to penalise India merely because of their own shortcomings in not being able to reign in the rogue states. Why should India pay a price for inadequacies of the present nuclear order? If the present system is not able to defang the rogues, and on top of it penalises the good guys merely to have a better argument against the bad guys - then what can we say, other than that there is something rotten in the state of Denmark?
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by RajeshA »

NPAs desperate, fighting with only cliches in hand :((

Time to decide: Economist
Just say no
The NSG was set up precisely to stop countries doing what India did to get a start in the bomb business: abusing technology and skills provided for civilian purposes. The group’s ban on trade with countries that break the non-proliferation rules has been the chief underpinning of the NPT regime. Waive the ban and the NSG will have little point. It should refuse to make an exception for India. And so should America’s Congress.
:rotfl:
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by RajeshA »

Revised text of the draft India waiver ready: howrah.org
The revised text of the draft India waiver to be considered at next week's NSG meeting is ready with some changes being incorporated in it, sources said in New Delhi on Thursday.

The Indian side is expected to examine the draft in a day or two to give its clearance for its introduction at the September 4-5 meeting of the Nuclear Suppliers Group depending on whether its objective of "unconditional" exemption is ensured.

In the draft, the US is believed to have attempted to strike a balance between addressing the concerns of the sceptic nations and ensuring that it is free of conditionalities.

Though India has held preliminary discussions with the US over revision of the draft, it will be keen to see that the revised document does not contain any language or elements that would bind it in lieu of the waiver.

Foreign Secretary Shivshankar Menon, who is in Washington, has held discussions with US Under Secretary of State William Burns on the draft soon after several NSG members at the August 21-22 meeting sought changes in it to address their non-proliferation concerns.
ramana
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by ramana »

So the NSG opposition from the pipsqueak countries was a Commonwealth plan. The Economist has spoken.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by Kakkaji »

ramana wrote:So the NSG opposition from the pipsqueak countries was a Commonwealth plan. The Economist has spoken.
ramana:

Nothing new. The Econom(Imperial)ist has been strident in its opposition to the nuke deal right from the beginning. At least it is consistent.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by svinayak »

Rangudu wrote:
Acharya,

Nehru and Mrs. Gandhi never had to deal with a coalition based political structure in India. And any person who guesses how either would have reacted today is doing just that - guessing.
I know it is easy to say what you are saying.
Indian interest remains the same whoever the PM is. The geography remains the same. The geo-politics remains the same.
The major powers and nations remain the same. And finally Indian interest remains the same.
Nehru and Indira Gandhi had better chance to have India test and be inside the NPT regime as a NWS since they did not face the difficulty of coalition govts.
So India now could have made some choices to make sure that it is closer to its objectives.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by svinayak »

ramana wrote:So the NSG opposition from the pipsqueak countries was a Commonwealth plan. The Economist has spoken.
I told that first in BRF
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by Rangudu »

Acharya,

If "major powers and nations remain the same" as of 1947, then India is forever doomed to be a third-tier state, isn't it?

Things change. Even if they change slowly, they change nonetheless. The pwoer structure is changing, the people are changing and the institutional mindset is evolving.

If we continue to treat the US as we saw them in the 1950s and 60s, then we are the ones who will lose out because such treatment is neither leveraging our new strengths nor the constituences that are created because of our strengths.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by RajeshA »

Nothing to do with Kaamenbelth. Iph India gets deal, then Ecomunist musht treat India bidh reshpekt. They musht reit good abaat India. They bill hab to chanj hole staph. Berry Diphikult!

Sarri phor languaj! I reit leik dis onlee!
svinayak
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by svinayak »

Rangudu wrote:Acharya,

If "major powers and nations remain the same" as of 1947, then India is forever doomed to be a third-tier state, isn't it?

Things change. Even if they change slowly, they change nonetheless. The pwoer structure is changing, the people are changing and the institutional mindset is evolving.

If we continue to treat the US as we saw them in the 1950s and 60s, then we are the ones who will lose out because such treatment is neither leveraging our new strengths nor the constituences that are created because of our strengths.
You are saying opposite of what I am saying.
Since the major powers were there India could have built the relations with them over many decades. India haane chs to make the choices to make the change
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by Pulikeshi »

E-Con-Pimperialist wrote: Just say no

The NSG was set up precisely to stop countries doing what India did to get a start in the bomb business: abusing technology and skills provided for civilian purposes. The group’s ban on trade with countries that break the non-proliferation rules has been the chief underpinning of the NPT regime. Waive the ban and the NSG will have little point. It should refuse to make an exception for India. And so should America’s Congress.
The question is not whether India gets the deal or not, the question is
the global power structure is already shifting to Asia and therefore
does Europe want to develop cordial relationships with India or
live in "we were the empire" lala land!

The NSG can say no - and yet become irrelevant in the long run.
The NSG can say yes - and yet become irrelevant immediately.
Either way this cabal will be left with nothing to do but moralize like the NAM. :shock:

India can wait, we have waited for a 1000 or more years,
a few decades will not change our "tryst with destiny!"

If nothing else the cards of each player is going to be visible for all to see -
that by itself is a gain.

Either way - Me what worry? 8)
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by ramana »

Pullikeshi, What the Economist despite their Imperialist background is saying is they dont want to legitimize Indian nuclear weapons. Why? And we need to find out. Europe already has two nuke powers. And are at peace fafter end of Cold War. The new chill with Russia is not on an ideological basis.

Also Europeans are retelling the history of Europe and want to move to a one union, many nations kind of narrative. This to adjust to the flauts of Wesphalian construct. So they are looking ahead and dont want a resurgent India. Only the UK are keeping alive the English speaking peoples project.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by Gerard »

India will not come under pressure on nuclear issue, Kakodkar
India will not come under any pressure on Indo-US nuclear deal and will also not accept any conditions outside the agreement, Atomic Energy Commission Chairman Anil Kakodkar said here on Wednesday.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by Pulikeshi »

ramana wrote:Pullikeshi, What the Economist despite their Imperialist background is saying is they dont want to legitimize Indian nuclear weapons. Why? And we need to find out.
Ramana,

There are some ideas:

1. Because India is (finally due to population and many other factors) getting out of the 'Resource Curse'.
This means, India will have no choice but to seek changes in the world order.
A non-nuclear India in their minds will have less leverage and thus easier to contain and
forced to benignly follow a trajectory of well adjusted growth.

2. Europe is currently at peace after centuries of war. They believe other states in Asia could achieve the same. There are genuine actors from Europe that do not want Asian states to repeat the mistakes they made and this is another motivation.

3. Europeans are racists! This may or may not explain the motivation and may just be
a convenient bucket to throw our stereotypes into... Don't know what that makes us!

Also, UK is now officially another state of the US. So, expect there to similarity between
US and UK in terms of policy than from continental Europe.
The latter is what I am talking (when I mean Europe) about more so than the former.

I tend to give them the benefit of the doubt and go with 2. albeit they seems to be increasingly moving to the 1. bucket.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by NRao »

Gerard wrote:India will not come under pressure on nuclear issue, Kakodkar
India will not come under any pressure on Indo-US nuclear deal and will also not accept any conditions outside the agreement, Atomic Energy Commission Chairman Anil Kakodkar said here on Wednesday.
That is the second shot across the bow of the political ship. Preventing another - potentially a more dangerous - slide?
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by NRao »

NRao
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by NRao »

America’s nuclear deal with India: Time to decide

:!:

Image

That is the understanding of the West - after India has given much from J18!! Seems like they expect India to proliferate. Strange people.
ramana
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by ramana »

I told you its the Savanorla of the Commonwealth ideology which is behind the NSG waiver sabotage. I'll have to spend a few pages to get you all to this conclusion. Its all related to the Greater Game and how they sent the Yanks on a wild goose chase and kept them out of India which was their quest from late 1890s. Now they are using their minnows to torpedo the old quest.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by RajeshA »

Daryl Kimball enjoying the last week of his career.

NSG nod to India-specific proposal in deep trouble: think-tank: PTI
"... As ACA had predicted, but to the apparent surprise of the Indian and US governments, more than 20 states essentially said 'no thanks' and proposed more than 50 amendments and modifications that would establish some basic, but vitally important restrictions and conditions on nuclear trade with India," he said in an e-mail Statement.

"Many of these amendments track with the restrictions and conditions established in 2006 US legislation regulating US nuclear trade with India, which include the termination of nuclear trade if India resumes testing, a ban on the transfer of uranium enrichment and spent fuel reprocessing technology, a requirement for permanent and unconditional facility- specific safeguards and a review mechanism," he said.
People keep on saying it is 20000 states who have something against the deal. All major states (US, Russia, France, UK) are totally for it. China is neutral. Canada, Australia and Japan are supportive. Most others would go along, as they do not want to spoil their relations with USA or India.

It is only 8 states, who have some itch: New Zealand, Austria, Switzerland, Ireland, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and Denmark.
Only 2 states have a serious rash: New Zealand and Austria. That too because of their upcoming general elections.
The Story with 20 states and 5 amendments is all a tactic of the Pipsqueaks to blow up their hollow chests.

In fact, now that it is pretty sure, that the next Administrations, be it of McCain or Obama/Biden would be positively disposed towards India, it is India which holds the cards. India can afford to stick to its position. It is Bush on the way out, he has to think about leaving a legacy. MMS also may have to think about legacy, but unlike Bush, there is a chance of his coming back. The Pipsqueak also know, they will not get much out of letting the clock run out, only Indian disdain.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by Sanatanan »

I believe this news story from ExpressIndia has not been posted earlier in these threads.

Long way to go before India gets NSG waiver: Experts

Agencies
Posted online: Friday, August 29, 2008 at 0916 hrs IST
Washington, August 29:
Despite intense lobbying, the proposal to give India an exemption from global nuclear trade standards is in deep trouble and there is still a long distance to go, a prominent arms-control think-tank opposed to the Indo-US nuclear deal has said.
"US still working on revised draft and India still demanding "clean and unconditional" waiver. While there is still a distance to go, the proposal to give India a clean exemption from global nuclear trade standards is in deep trouble" Daryl Kimball, the Executive Director of the Arms Control Association, has said.
"... As ACA had predicted, but to the apparent surprise of the Indian and US governments, more than 20 states essentially said 'no thanks' and proposed more than 50 amendments and modifications that would establish some basic, but vitally important restrictions and conditions on nuclear trade with India," he said in an e-mail Statement.
"Many of these amendments track with the restrictions and conditions established in 2006 US legislation regulating US nuclear trade with India, which include the termination of nuclear trade if India resumes testing, a ban on the transfer of uranium enrichment and spent fuel reprocessing technology, a requirement for permanent and unconditional facility- specific safeguards and a review mechanism," he said.
Kimball has said that while acknowledging India's legitimate interest in diversifying its energy options, responsible like-minded countries like -- Austria, Ireland, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Switzerland, and others -- correctly recognise that the Bush approach is deeply flawed and would effectively end the NSG as a meaningful entity.
"It is vital that these and other states stand their ground," Kimball maintained.
It has been pointed out that over the weekend the US State Department worked on a revised draft proposal for consideration at the next scheduled NSG meeting on the topic on September 4-5 in Vienna.
"There are signs, however, that the process of developing a revised draft is taking so long that the other 44 members will not have sufficient time to analyse the proposal and work through their respective national political processes to enable them to take a decision by next week," Kimball said.
Furthermore, given India's continuing demands for a "clean and unconditional" exemption, it is unlikely that the United States can find a way to bridge differences, especially in such a short period of time, he said making the point that as of last afternoon the US had still not delivered its revised proposal to NSG Chair Germany.
"...Some Indian officials and commentators have suggested that New Delhi may walk away from the deal if the NSG establishes Hyde Act-like requirements. If that occurs, so be it," Kimball said going on to bring up the time factor remaining in the US Congress to get the Initiative through.
"The Indian government's demands have been so unreasonable that the Bush administration simply can't ram an India-specific exemption through the NSG without accepting substantial changes and some common sense restrictions and conditions" he said.
"In addition, many NSG states have done their homework and are being reminded why the proposal to exempt India would be a nonproliferation disaster. NGOs and experts from nearly two dozen countries have been working for months to publish opeds, encourage newspapers to write editorials critical of the deal, send letters to their foreign ministers, and meet with their parliamentarians to help encourage their governments to help reduce the damage to the nonproliferation system" he added.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by RajeshA »

JNU has another victory to its credit. :lol: . Great military tactic and always works the first time: First invite somebody and then cancel the invitation, and TAAAAN-NAAAA, you have served the other a big meaty piece of humiliation.

Indian University calls off US official`s visit: IRNA
Earlier, several activists gathered outside the Centre in the afternoon shouting slogans against Boucher. They held placards accusing the US official of killing innocent people in Afghanistan and Iraq.

"The protest is a firm assertion that no force indulging in Imperialism and occupation can use JNU's platform", said JNUSU President Sandeep Singh.
IRNA has quite a network for covering stories in India. :eek:
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by Johann »

Ramana,

You are dragging a particular historical framework in to an issue without regard for the mechanics and personalities of the present.

If the British government had issues with the NSG waiver, it would have stood with those who opposed it.

On the other hand, New Zealand was willing to risk its entire military relationship with the US in the 1980s over the issue of nuclear weapons on US Navy ships.

New Labour under both Blair and Brown have consistantly, and succesfully sought to deepen ties with India, and have always succesfully fought down efforts by Labour's left wing to make a major issue out of the Indian nuclear weapons programme.

For its part the British nuclear industry, like many others around the world hopes to make real money in India once the waiver is passed.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by Philip »

If I'm not mistaken the cryo-engine problem was thanks to the US putting pressure upon the drunken Yeltsin and his pliable regime.Even then,Russia did give us a few engines and discreetly helped us in devloping our own design.Moreover,India's cutting edge military technology is from Russia in the form of SU-30MKIs,Brahmos and Klub missiles and the arriving Akula-2 SSGN and assistance with the reactor design for the ATV.No other nation on the planet would've been so supportive of India and assisted it in strengthening its defences so.The current regime in Russia is self confident and assertive unlike India!

We should "trust in our destiny",instead of merely trysting with it at times.India should by virtue of its principled stand on global issues,its ideology based upon human values whose foundation goes back to thousands of years,believe in itself instead of relying on the patronage of neo-con neo-imperialists and neo-colonialists like Bush & Co.,so demeaningly displayed by the words and actions of our Washington envoy ,the "headless chicken" -Ronen Sen.His behaviour has been as indigestible as that of "foot-in-the-mouth" artist "Mutt" Mulford,the US ambassador whose controversial mouthings and that of his superiors have from time-to-time displayed Washington's patronising attitude towards India.Here are a few examples.Why didn't we kick this bu**er out?Perhaps as my dear journo pal says ,because our leaders have no balls and enjoy getting bu**ered!

Ex.1:
Does India-US row matter?

By Paul Danahar
BBC South Asia bureau editor, Delhi

India has summoned the US ambassador David Mulford to Delhi to protest over comments he made over how India should vote in a UN motion on Iran's nuclear intentions. What does the row tell us about relations between India and the US?

"If you want to run with the big dogs, you have to stop pissing with the puppies".

David Mulford became ambassador to Delhi in 2004

It may not be very diplomatic but it is the most eloquent assessment of the problems of Indian foreign policy over the years that I have heard.

These were the words of a man whose opinion, in the global scheme of things, matters.

I will not name him because it was a private conversation but I got the chance to ask him again recently whether his view had changed.

He was a lot more upbeat. India, he asserted, had stopped acting like a non-aligned country. He spat out "non-aligned" like a swear word.

Ex.2:
CONTROVERSY: Bush blames India's middle class for rising food prices

Ex.3:

Mr. Rademaker "former Assistant Secretary of State for International Security and Non-Proliferation", at IDSA began his talk -- which was ostensibly about North Korea and Iran -- with general observations about how India no longer regarded non-proliferation as a dirty word. He cited his own experience in high-level discussions with the Indians and mentioned the July 2005 US-India nuclear deal as a watershed which helped bring about a major shift in Indian attitudes. One example of the change of mindset was India's willingness to adopt tough export-control laws. But, he added: "The best illustration of this is the two votes India cast against Iran at the IAEA. I am the first person to admit that the votes were coerced".

Ex.4:
10-15-2004
David Mulford, the low-key US ambassador to India, made it to the headlines
but for all the wrong reasons.
Analysts say the ambassador probably committed a 'procedural aberration'
when he wrote directly to the chief ministers of Assam and Nagaland
offering American assistance to help probe the recent bomb explosions which
killed more than 70 people in the two northeastern states.


Ex.5:
Left outrage over US Ambassador’s FDI comments

US Ambassador to India David Mulford now finds himself in the crosschairs of the Left for his comments on FDI in retail. Outraged Left parties asked the Government to seek Mulford’s recall, as his recent statements amount to “direct interference” in the country’s internal affairs.

This was the second time in a week that the US Ambassador courted controversy over his interview to a news agency, PTI. Reports of his first interview suggesting that the Indian vote on the Iran nuclear issue and Indo-US nuclear cooperation were interlinked saw Mulford being summoned to the Foreign Office to lodge India’s protest.

Ex.5"
Despite US envoy's apology Indian N-scientist cancels visit
IRNA - Islamic Republic News Agency

New Delhi, Feb 25, IRNA
India-US-Apology
Top Indian nuclear scientist Govardhan Mehtra cancelled plans to visit the US to deliver a lecture at a function organized by the University of Florida, despite the US envoy's expressed apology.US Ambassador David C Mulford expressed his apologies to the Indian nuclear scientist Goverdhan Mehta for the delay in providing him a US visa, which was issued Friday.

"I appreciate the apology extended by the US ambassador to India on the issue but, as far as I am concerned, I think it is only the controversy that has been put to rest, not the issue.
The issue is a generic one and relates to the free interaction of scientists and their participation in various international activities without being subject to any such restriction or humiliation. It is not only an issue concerned with scientists in India but all over the world," he said.

EX.6:
Mulford tells India to mind its language
Reported 08/05/2008 by Business Standard India

International Atomic Energy AgencyNUCLEAR DEAL: DRUMMING UP SUPPORT FOR THE NSG WAIVERBs Reporter / New Delhi August 06, 2008, 0:17 ISTThe US today asked India not to talk about unconditional waiver from the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) as the demand, just ahead of the meeting of the ...

We wait eagerly for more mouthings from HE Ambassador "Mutt" Mulford!
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by Philip »

PS:An enlightening piece about US diplodocus activity in Delhi and elsewhere.

Here's an enlightening piece on US diploducus activities in Delhi!
http://www.telegraphindia.com/1060131/a ... 786690.asp

PRIVILEGES AND PERILS
- The US ambassador?s job in Delhi is not an easy one
Diplomacy / K.P. Nayar

Shortly after presenting his credentials in Rashtrapati Bhavan several years ago, an American ambassador invited his fellow heads of diplomatic missions for breakfast at his residence in Chanakyapuri. He told his aides that he was too busy to follow convention and call on other ambassadors as his predecessors had done: he would only extend that courtesy to a few heads of missions who represented ?important? governments closely allied to Washington. The other ambassadors in New Delhi could come for his breakfast if they wanted to break the diplomatic ice with him.

The Russian ambassador to India at that time was not among those who had been chosen for a ?privileged? call by his new US counterpart. He decided on the eve of the breakfast that he would not demean himself or his country by going to Roosevelt House, the American ambassador?s residence in the capital on this occasion. But he also took the unusual step of sending his political counsellor to take his place. Not his deputy chief of mission, not a diplomat equivalent in rank to a minister, but only a counsellor. The counsellor in question was known to the Indian government and to many diplomatic missions in New Delhi as a long-time KGB operative. He was also one of those who lived up to fictional images of boorish, pushy and matter-of-fact KGB men, whom no amount of cover could cover-up in sophisticated diplomatic circles.

When the counsellor was introduced to the host as the guests trooped in, the American envoy asked about the Russian ambassador, who had, after all, confirmed his attendance at the breakfast. The KGB man loudly told the host, stunning the other guests and American diplomats, ?My ambassador is busy. He has other things to do.?

The diplomatic storm in New Delhi, set off by the controversial interview of the US ambassador, David Mulford, linking the Indo-US nuclear deal to India?s vote on Iran?s nuclear programme at the International Atomic Energy Agency brought back memories of that breakfast ? an occasion when the Russian ambassador stood up and resisted efforts by the representative of the world?s only remaining superpower to deal with others from a high horse.

Every central Asian ambassador in New Delhi attended that breakfast at Roosevelt House. For many east European ambassadors, who are holdovers from Soviet times, the end of the Cold War means doing America?s bidding instead of their previous habit of taking orders from Moscow. All but one of the east European envoys attended that breakfast.

That is what American ambassadors are used to. In many capitals across continents, host governments and a large number of fellow ambassadors fawn over them. The Indian government has been a notable exception to this largely global rule, but about a decade ago, there was an attempt to change this. When a new American ambassador arrived in New Delhi, before he had presented his credentials to the president, the then foreign secretary invited him to dinner at his residence on Chanakyapuri?s Circular Road. This departure from protocol, which became widely known, caused so much resentment that it has not been attempted again in New Delhi.

American ambassadors in many parts of the world ? more so in countries which are vulnerable to US pressure or are dependent on American handouts ? behave the way Mulford did last week. Even in a country as non-controversial as New Zealand, the US ambassador got into controversy some years back, trying to insert himself into a domestic debate on the sensitive issue of buying F-16 planes for New Zealand?s air force. Not long ago, in nearby Australia, leaders of the Labour Party had to twice chastize the last US ambassador, John Thomas Schieffer, for interfering in Australia?s domestic politics.

In recent weeks, US ambassadors in Lebanon, Canada and Britain ? to mention a few ? have all been in the spotlight for some gaffe or for having exceeded their brief. While Mulford?s remarks to PTI last week are inexcusable and they do a disservice to Indo-US relations, another side of the story is that his is not an easy job in New Delhi.

America is unique in that most of its ambassadors are political appointees, many of them contributors to the president?s election. In this privileged club of American ambassadors, a hub of patronage, favours and influence-peddling, Mulford has to compete with the likes of Schieffer, the former envoy to Australia, who was reassigned to Japan last year at the start of George W. Bush?s second presidential term. A look at Schieffer?s past tells the story. He was an investor in the business partnership led by Bush that bought the Texas Rangers Baseball Club in 1989. When Bush was elected governor of Texas in 1994, Schieffer assumed Bush?s duties as general partner of the club and The Ballpark in Arlington, Texas, which was part of Bush?s business.

Mulford?s task is also made difficult by the Bush administration?s self-righteous attitudes, and because no other US administration in decades has set so much in store by loyalty. As Indians know from their political experience, there is only a thin line between loyalty and sychophancy. Like Mulford, the need to live up to the expectations of Washington?s political leadership recently got Bush?s envoy to Britain, Robert Holmes Tuttle, own- er of one of the largest automobile dealer organizations in the US, into deep trouble.

Appearing on a programme on BBC Radio 4, Tuttle flatly denied that the Bush administration was handing over terrorist suspects to Syria to be tortured under a controversial practice known as ?extraordinary rendition?. The ambassador was either not reading his cables or he was being more loyal than he needed to be. The following day, a spokeswoman from his own embassy had to contact the BBC to contradict Tuttle and set the record straight.

Unfortunately for this ambassador, it was the second such gaffe in quick succession. A few weeks before his brush with BBC Radio 4, Tuttle had angrily reacted to British media reports that US forces had used white phosphorus, generally considered to be a chemical weapon, against Iraqi insurgents. A day after the ambassador?s denial appeared in the British press, the Pentagon spokesman, Lieutenant Colonel Barry, Venable, admitted to using white phosphorus as ?an incendiary weapon? to dislodge Iraqi fighters from entrenched positions in Fallujah.

Mulford has an additional difficulty in New Delhi that one can relate to. Unlike his predecessor, Robert Blackwill, Mulford does not have the kind of contacts among Indians, which enable him to gauge the mood in India. Nor does he have Blackwill?s single window access for answers either in South Block or in North Block: if he had such access, he could have avoided a summons to the external affairs ministry on a day when most ambassadors are rubbing shoulders with some of the most powerful men in New Delhi, either on the lawns of Rashtrapati Bhavan during the president?s customary ?at home? or along Rajpath during the Republic Day parade.

To add to it all, in the National Democratic Alliance government, it was possible for a resourceful envoy to go to the national security adviser, Brajesh Mishra, and get ready answers to most questions on foreign policy. Manmohan Singh?s prime minister?s office is structured differently and his government has no external affairs minister ? all of which, no doubt, contribute to problems thrown up by Mulford?s interview.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by RajeshA »

India seeks clean waiver from NSG over N deal: Pranab: Zeenews
New Delhi, Aug 29: Making India’s stance clear on the Indo-US nuclear deal, External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee on Friday said that New Delhi is interested in securing a clean waiver from Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), which is due to meet on Sep 4.

Referring directly to the NSG members and interlocutors, the veteran Congress leader reiterated that New Delhi will not accept any "prescriptive conditionalities" to get an exemption from the NSG to operationalise the nuclear deal.

Pranab had earlier said that a decision will be taken only after examining the amendments made to the present draft of the Indo-US nuclear deal.

He said this while responding to questions regarding government's future course of action in the face of reservations expressed by some countries which could lead to a re-wording of the draft waiver presented in the 45-member Nuclear Suppliers Group.

Mukherjee also informed that he has been briefed by Foreign Secretary Shiv Shankar Menon about the developments in Vienna.

Pranab is of opinion that exemption to NSG guidelines for nuclear trade would help civil nuclear cooperation and "is a necessary step for cooperation between India and the NSG”.

According to political analysts, differences between India and NSG countries have been narrowed down in the recent past and New Delhi expects them to shrink further before the next meeting of the grouping here on September 4-5.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by NRao »

NRao
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by NRao »

For its part the British nuclear industry, like many others around the world hopes to make real money in India once the waiver is passed.
There in lies the problem. All they want is money.

The topic is very black and white - nearly binary in nature. No amount of bargaining or changing of words will make India change her mind when it comes to strategic position or assets. And, the NPAs (and this is NOT a knock on them) are JUST after the strategic segment - to them the civilian is important ONLY after they can get the other. Oil and water.

IF and when India tests (the chances are rather high as we post) and the fuel supplies are interrupted (which will happen) then all the time and funds spent to write these deals will be for naught. What in this is so difficult to understand?

The NSG will produce another interpretable deal. The only hope is that India does not test at all. What are the chances of that happening?
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by enqyoob »

NRao: Both those headlines are completely consistent. The US wants to make the deal go through. The Irresponsible Dozen are obstructing, and the only way out is to dismantle the NSG.


This is the bottom line:
responsible (for selling nukes to Islamists) like-minded (meaning irrelevant) countries like -- Austria, Ireland, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Switzerland, and others -- correctly recognise that the Bush approach is deeply flawed and would effectively end the NSG as a meaningful entity.
"It is vital that these and other states stand their ground," Kimball maintained.


The US may end up having to choose between NSG on the one hand, and common sense& credibility on the other hand. And my take is that Bush has long-since chosen to dismantle the NSG. Obama/Biden would not, IMO, choose that.

If this is what happens when a sensible proposal to undo past wrongs is brought before them, can you imagine what goes on at NSG meetings when ANY proactive measure is introduced? It must be worse than a Loya Jirga with all the :(( :(( and caterwauling. Anyone who has had to deal with the usual supercilious idiots from the above-named countries, will understand immediately what I am saying here, and the Americans must be sick to the tops of their bald heads with it.

So let's watch and see if the US administration has the guts to go through and do what it needs to do. After all, what exactly is the legitimacy of NSG except as the 'N" version of OPEC? The IAEA is the UN-approved international body. The NSG is just a bunch of shopkeepers. Or worse, a mob of brats gathered by Massa to throw stones when it suited Massa. Now it's time to kick them off the mansion grounds if decent visitors are to be entertained.

As for Japan, it is high time someone removed the bamboo poles under their high child-seat. Most of us who have thought a bit about war and weapons, see NOTHING wrong in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki nuclear bombings. In fact I think a few more should have been used - on Tokyo and Kyoto particularly. The Japanese get people to weep at the thought of little children burnt to cinders, or blinded. But every bomb blast does the same or far worse to little children, and the Japanese were known for using swords to do this at a very personal level to children all over southeast Asia until wisdom was conveyed to them in those two mushroom clouds.

As for New Zealand, if it were not for those nukes, New Zealand would today be New Shikoku.Its just Japanese idiocy that they hit the Phillippines instead of taking over NZ first.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by harbans »

Wow Narayan Ji..that was eloquent indeed. :mrgreen:
Anyways i think there will be a write up on V2 somewhere in between as all these things go. While there won't be a demand for India to sigh NPT and stuff there will be something on NSG member consultations or votings to disrupt fuel supplies in case of India testing. Possibly with wordings to allow India to explain itself to NSG. But in case this deal falls through i'm sort of positive that if the BJP comes in next elections they'll test for sure aka 98. What happens then may be more important than what happens today at NSG. JMT..
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by RajeshA »

Revised draft for NSG ready: Business Standard
Revised draft for NSG ready
Bs Reporter / New Delhi August 29, 2008, 17:54 IST

Indian officials are examining the revised text of the draft India waiver to be presented at the next week's meeting of the Nuclear supplies’ group (NSG) at Vienna.The new draft seeks to address concerns of at least 15 countries about India being given license to trade in nuclear materials even as it has refused to sign the Non-proliferation treaty (NTP), officials said.

However, the over-cautious Indian side is minutely examining the revised draft and is likely to give its clearance to the USA in a day or two.

The proposed draft would be introduced at the September 4-5 meeting of the NSG depending on whether its objective of 'unconditional' exemption is ensured.

The US authorities, which claimed to have finally struck a balance between addressing the concerns of the skeptic nations and India’s insistence of NSG giving it a clear and unconditional exemption.

According to official sources although the draft was worked together by a team of Indian and US officials, it would be examined independently once again to ensure that it had no hidden traps.

India’s foreign secretary Shivshankar Menon, who is in Washington, has held discussions with US Under Secretary of State William Burns on the draft, sources said.

Around 15 countries particularly New Zealand, Austria, Switzerland and Norway had proposed some 50 amendments to the draft at the last NSG meeting in Vienna.

This time again the US administration is lobbying hard with the skeptic countries to convince them of keeping India out of the nuclear circuit at their own risk.

In Delhi, David Mulford, US ambassador to India, had been meeting envoys of New Zealand, Switzerland, The Netherlands, Norway and Austria, embassy sources said.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by enqyoob »

Harbans: I think "conditions" such as "NSG will meet if India tests" may be OK - India should just ignore those - because that is unavoidable reality anyway. Would you believe that this gang WON'T "meet" if India tests?

The issue is whether they can order the countries that really matter, to NOT trade with India.

If you look at the reason behind the :(( :(( it is that these countries become irrelevant once India enters the world nuke market. Austria, Switzerland, NW etc. are vendors of certain components.

How many people buy Swiss watches any more these days? Same thing will happen to Austrian centrifuges, and whatever the Swiss peddle. Ignore them as long as they can't get veto power over Russia and France.
Last edited by enqyoob on 29 Aug 2008 18:30, edited 1 time in total.
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