Indian Non-response to Terrorism after Mumbai

[RayC]

But Sir, Pakistan has barely been a democracy. The earthquake took place when Musharraff was in charge. Also there is no guarantee that this present "democratic" government will last till next spring. Its more to do with the will to act. Besides Terrorism is an instrument of state policy of Pakistan with its state agencies (read ISI, PA) involved. So the trails of every investigation will lead to these agencies and therefore the lack of will to act.

Yusuf,

Very valid contentions I will admit.

But war?

Use the economic tool.

Let the Pakistani govt survive and do all the smash the stranglehold of the Army.

If they can spread terror in India, can we not use their dissidents and the sectarian discontent to spread terror in Pakistan? If India is a divided house, Pakistan is, in comparison, the Wild West!

One could have done this long ago, but then the Wagah candlelighters, like Gujral (who dismantled the covert wing of RAW) sabotaged India's answer to the terrorist spawning in Pakistan.

[Yusuf]

YusufRayC

Yusuf

Im not a proponent of an overt war. Im more of the covet kind. We dont have to smash some tents in PoK to show we are doing something about terrorism. That will merely be symbolism without getting any substantial benefit.
I would like to see the RAW do something that justifies their unaccounted budget. Get real time intel of the terrorist mastermind. Bomb that place, political assassinations, I dont want Dawood to be extradited to India and survive till his death a long drawn legal drama. Kill him there. That will send the message to all the terrorists that we will adopt "all options" to safeguard our national interest.
Besides, I was speaking to my friend who is in the IA serving near the border at -40C. He is saying that no matter what the government says, we (as in the soldiers) are suffering the most. He was saying with the current inventory that the IA has plus our national forex, he said we have enough to fight a war for only 15 days. And that 15 Day war can set us back by a lot and will take a long time to recover.

[Yusuf]

If they can spread terror in India, can we not use their dissidents and the sectarian discontent to spread terror in Pakistan? If India is a divided house, Pakistan is, in comparison, the Wild West!

Sir, that would be a folly. Prime eg is AQ. Americans created it to fight for them and today its the biggest problem the world is facing. We cannot have our coming generations tell that you guys created the terrorists of today.

[vera_k]

No first use options

Shocking if it is true that India is no longer able to deter Pakistan via conventional means.

[Yusuf]

No first use options

Shocking if it is true that India is no longer able to deter Pakistan via conventional means.

Relax mate. We know our weaknesses because we have a transparent system. We dont know what Pakistans capabilities are or how far they have deteriorated in the last 10 years. If they had any conventional supremacy,they would have tried to escalate the Kargil War/2001 mobilization.

Also remember that its all about training as well. Our good old Gnats turned Saber killers which were far superior to the Gnats.
The bravado of 10-1 is bull crap from their side. What matters is training and how best you can stretch your available resources.

[RayC]

If they can spread terror in India, can we not use their dissidents and the sectarian discontent to spread terror in Pakistan? If India is a divided house, Pakistan is, in comparison, the Wild West!

Sir, that would be a folly. Prime eg is AQ. Americans created it to fight for them and today its the biggest problem the world is facing. We cannot have our coming generations tell that you guys created the terrorists of today.

Let me explain this to you.

There is the Shia Sunni divide ever since the issue of ascendancy was in question. Till today, notwithstanding efforts, it has not been solved. As the years go by, it is becoming worse.

One has to merely fund each side and it will help. Why should India get physically involved?

Likewise, Balochis are peeved, so are the Shias of Northern Territories, where the Pakistan govt is changing the demography by planting Sunni Pathans and that is why there is the Balwaristan movement. Then there is Jiyo Sindh and the MQM. Are you aware that the Mohajirs (refugees of India, who are more intelligent than those of West Pakistan) are detested? Agitate them!

And then see the fun!

No terrorism. merely subtle suggestion of sub nationalism!

[Yusuf]

Let me explain this to you
..................
No terrorism. merely subtle suggestion of sub nationalism!

Shhh! ! Dont tell anybody, but arent we doing that already for quite sometime?

[RayC]

Shhh! ! Dont tell anybody, but arent we doing that already for quite sometime?

You really believe that?

RAW is a moribund organisation.

If they are doing so, it is as so low a level that it is not worth noting!

Anything of the like of ISI and Mumbai?

I am convinced Zardari was equally surprised!

Their Army rules!

[Yusuf]

Has RAW become less potent than before or it was never potent at all. I have read quite a bit about RAW and its ability. Is it all history or the stories are just that, stories?

[RajeshA]

So now the foreign sec of britain also started to dictate the PM of India

I think we should rfrain from over sensationalizing the issues. Yes he was aggressive, but that does not mean that he was able to dictate anything to the Indians. Being aggressive is not great diplomacy in most cases unless there is a war or similar urgency. All he did was to put off the Indians and he probably will not get another tour to India. Good riddance.

I think, we need to cut Mulli-in-Bund, the Labour Party, and Great Britain in size. A unified stand and vocal contempt, by Indian Government, Indian Media and Indian Diaspora in UK against this Mulli-in-Bund, will see to it, that his dreams of becoming the next Prime Minister have a premature end. Gordon Brown would be more than willing to comply.

The next Government in UK could be a Tory Government, so Indians there could start moving towards the Tories.

Thirdly India needs to downgrade our relations with Great Britain a bit. Why is there a need for any special relationship? The colonial hangover is over. We should improve on our relationships with Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Eastern Europe. There are indications, that in an Obama Administration, there will be no special relationship with Britain either. Obama gave his first public address in Berlin, Germany. Great Britain gets its influence from its close relationship with USA, the Commonwealth, being one of 3-4 major countries in Europe, and the UNSC veto. All of that would be downgraded soon.

It is extremely important, that the Indian Media pounces on Mulli-in-Bund and rips him apart. The British Media (non-BBC) would do the rest.

[enqyoob]

All this RayC - Yusuf discussion assumes that there IS a disagreement IN PRINCIPLE (i.e., Rape and Kill Indians! Loot India!) between the Pakistan Army and the Pakistan Government and the Pakistan Al Qaeda (all the same IMO).

Their only disagreements are how to divide the loot between themselves. So I see no benefit in supporting the government of Pakistan, whatever that may be. I am all for supporting the the pro-Indian governments of Pakhtoonistan, Sindh, etc. etc. (morally and diplomatically to ensure their security against the threat posed by their anti-Indianeighbors)

[Yusuf]

Their only disagreements are how to divide the loot between themselves. So I see no benefit in supporting the government of Pakistan, whatever that may be. I am all for supporting the the pro-Indian governments of Pakhtoonistan, Sindh, etc. etc. (morally and diplomatically to ensure their security against the threat posed by their anti-Indianeighbors)

India has over the years has covertly supported the Baloch and Sindh movement. That was my assumption. But that the Brigadier has discounted that saying that the RAW is not worth its salt.

A renewed effort can be mounted to morally and financially support those movements.

As far as the Pakhtoons go, I dont think India will be able to get them on board as they form the core of Taliban and AQ support which are anti India.

[VikramS]

{deleted inane copying of posts. People can read, thank you.}


Issue is that there has been a neglect of the armed forces both within the forces and from the political organization. The talk of not having proper serviceability and poor ammunition reserves is not to be taken lightly. I guess over the years a malaise has set into anything to do with the GOI. In spite of more money and betterweapons, things may not be done as efficiently as they used to be four decades ago.

[Yusuf]

{deleted inane copying of posts. People can read, thank you.}

There is nothing from the military side. Its all political. The other day the Brigadier and I were discussing ways of empowering the Armed forces to make their purchases from their allocated budget without having any political interference. The Union Budgets sets aside an amount for modernization and expansion of capability. Once that is done, the government should let the Armed forces do what it wants with that in getting the best for the forces. Obviously their should be oversight as we are a democracy, but no political interference in defense purchases should be allowed.
Obviously the politicians will not be pleased by it as even a 10% cut will probably fetch them 10,000Cr a year.

[SaiK]

http://deccanherald.com/Content/Jan1720 ... updatenews

can we ask for his head.. he is just blabbering blabbering after mumble mumble..

wtf he knows about terrorism?

[brihaspati]

There is nothing from the military side. Its all political. The other day the Brigadier and I were discussing ways of empowering the Armed forces to make their purchases from their allocated budget without having any political interference. The Union Budgets sets aside an amount for modernization and expansion of capability. Once that is done, the government should let the Armed forces do what it wants with that in getting the best for the forces. Obviously their should be oversight as we are a democracy, but no political interference in defense purchases should be allowed.
Obviously the politicians will not be pleased by it as even a 10% cut will probably fetch them 10,000Cr a year.

The money should be provided without preconditions. But the question is complicated, as by the very nature of the purchases, there is the possibility of an intelligence risk (undesirable connections with international arms production interests), and because the political class itself knows corruption in its own backyard, it does not rely on the armed forces leadership to be free of it too. Because of defence secrecy, such corruption if any, will not be amenable to transparent scrutiny as possible outside in civilian sphere. In the past, both political and military leadership came from the same social network and circles - and mutual suspicions of corruption is not unreasonable, given the general habits of the elite nurtured under British patronage. Some mechanism that gives civilians power through independent but competent audit bodies to supervise defence accounts can go a long way towards removal of this suspicion. On the other hand, government expenditure should also be directed at sufficient investments to indigenous research to bring it up to the cutting edge. Buying from "foreigners" is less desirable than being able to "produce" on one's own. Any extra "keenness" to skip "domestic" produce in favour of "foreign" will lend itself to suspicions. The US has become what it has become by sourcing indigenously and hugely investing in defence research - both the army and GOI should keep this in mind. At the moment our dependence on foreign sources and neglect of indigenous capacity building has to be met with "buying" from "outside" - but this should not be a long term feature. If policies are not formulated to correct this, overall suspicion of the elite that leads both the GOI and the army will be unavoidable.

[enqyoob]

There will be coup to prevent Indian action. There is no other alternative to stop Indians

ramana, my point is, once the coup occurs, IMO it removes all need for "restraint" and war becomes the indispensable option. All that is needed is for GOI to come out and say that Intel reports indicate that those responsible for terrorism have taken over in Pakistan, and it's a question of removing their offensive capability ASAP to save India and the world. 2 hours after the coup starts, the nuclear facilities should be smoking ruins along with Sargodha, Peshawar and Skardu air bases.

The best way to deal with the military government is to smash its Honor and Dignity through limited but pretty visible and devastating strikes, with the clear warning that any attempt to retaliate means the end of the TSPA.

I seriously question whether the TSPA actually is willing to go to war, because that will be a sudden end to everything they have tried to build up - the mansions, the cantonments, the factories, the real estate holdings, the waterfront construction, and even the Swiss Bank accounts once they get really overthrown by violent force.

So the pincer movement should be by pressure on the kleptocracy (present dispensation) to crack down on the military on pains of diplomatic isolation and economic boycott, and pressure on the military through maintaining the buildup and threat posture. With the clear warning that if the military tries to overthrow the kleptocracy, it's all over - the 5 New Nations of FTSP get born and the lamposts of Islamabad get weighted down.

[Yogi_G]

http://deccanherald.com/Content/Jan1720 ... updatenews

can we ask for his head.. he is just blabbering blabbering after mumble mumble..

wtf he knows about terrorism?

The fad for political correctness is catching on fast...

I am surprised Pranabda would come out with a statement like this because he is known to be very well-read and knowledgeable...Internal party pressure would probably compelling him to be politically correct....

[Chinmayanand]

[archan]

hello, what is with this incessant quoting and re-quoting of long posts? why do intelligent people have problems in following simple moderator requests?

[Kanson]

Non-response to terrorism ?

This guy Milli-whatever is a fine example of how British ruled us. His actions are forcing unilateral actions from GoI. Such is our pluralistic society that moment the Army appears on scene people like Manoj Joshi comes out with their peice. And this is the same person who questioned the rights of DAE people to interfere in N deal circa 2005.

[Pranay]

Does anyone have a transcript of the Pakistani Foreign Minister's press conference being aired on Times Now about an hour ago... was able to see only a little bit.

Pak. FM mentioned that...

1) Pranab Mukherjee did a flip flop

2) Pakistan's stellar policy so far of "consistancy and clarity"

[ramana]

N^3,

I guess I am not making myself clear. The purpose of a coup in TSP is to make it clear that the masters(TSPA) is incharge and there is no ambiguiteis etc. The civiliian mask drops as they dont need to beg for aid.

And what that does is pause India like nothing else. Contrary to what you are saying a coup in TSP will halt India for the TSPA is in direct rule and there is no chain of command and other niceities.

The other reason why they will have a coup is if they think the jihadis(salafists) are getting control of nukes then(Deobandis) again it will happen. However under Kiyani this reason is getting dimmer.

[JwalaMukhi]

http://www.rediff.com/news/2009/jan/17m ... mumbai.htm

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh [Images] on Saturday asked Pakistan to come out with a 'full and complete disclosure about the 26/11 terror attack on Mumbai [Images] without attempts at 'denial, diversion or obfuscation'.

The prime minister recalled that he was a resident of Mumbai for "three happy years and I feel keenly the pain and anger of the city. To the people of Mumbai, I can only say that we will take every effort to ensure that their {drum rolls please... Spoken truly as a Global citizen who happens to be caught in India} city does not suffer any such attack in the future".

Enquiring minds in Mumbai also would like to know is the concern is only about Mumbai city or any other part of the nation.
Anyways, the GOI is on the right track of expectation. Firstly, it is trying to ensure no further attacks till election. Secondly the request to bakis will yield result.
Thirdly has managed to send "sympathy card" message (sans white dove) to all of Mumbai, may be not directly to the victims, but a good start.
If only, it can manage to threaten and change the timings of samjahuta express and wagah tamasha.
Wait for the elections is seeming to be very long.

[enqyoob]

ramana:

My point is that if Pakistan slides into TSPA dictatorship again, that constitutes a solid reason to release the restraints and destroy the Pakistani establishment. I agree that after Mumbai the GOI may have tried some line where the Americans "allow" India to go bomb a few terrorist camps (as long as India doesn't hit anything important) and the Pak govt was to look the other way, as a sort of "allow retaliation, H&D satisfied" deal. Apparently the Pakis/Americans refused.

If this is all that GOI sees as the use of the IAF/IN/IA, then we might as well declare unilateral disarmament and welcome the Mughal Empire again.

If OTOH, IA/IAF/IN is under orders to prepare for the solution of the Pakistan problem, then a coup is as good a reason to go ahead, as another terror attack. That is the outcome from the Mumbai attack - the clear ability to identify TSPA with the LeT etc., so that the world will just have to shut up when India says that a military regime in TSP is unacceptable for peace and security of India.

IOW, a coup provides a unique window of opportunity to solve the problem, while the TSPA is trying to mess up their own country. The effect of air raid sirens in Isloo would be to send the coup forces into a panic for long enough to turn the coup into a full-fledged civil war. The coup leaders will be called traitors paid by India, for long enough to create total fracture of the TSPA, and hence cause the coup to fail. Then the resistance to the Indian attack will collapse in short order, and it will become a total panic.

Wait 2 days and the best window closes and the TSPA imposes their iron hand. The costs of attack will rise, but it is still worth it because the world will be OK with an Indian attack at that point.

[brihaspati]

Musharraf's speech at Stanford and TSP political speak refering to Miliband - coincide. This means there will be no coups. Uk and USA has more or less assured TSP of keeping India away from its throat. No, coups, no retaliation from GOI. A lot of bluster and impression of "iron-fists", but that will be all. GOI has no concrete plans about TSP. India has lost even this particular psy-war.

[Rangudu]

ramana

From what I learned, GOI did not even inquire with the US about possbility of limited strikes. In fact, US feared that Cold Start will be activated but some US observers were surprised that GoI did not even seriously pursue the military threat in the beginning. That is why the US pressure on TSP died out soon and only then did our GoI moorkhs realize that US willingness to press TSP is dependent on Indian resolve to use force and make life difficult for US' TSP goals.

[John Snow]

I have said many times the IA has no capacity or will to execute punitive strikes or quick reaction to neutralize terror accross the border. The cadre above the Col rank level are too cushy in their jobs.

1) In Kargil the IA was totally unprepared and lacked any ideas or quick response, Akhand was told not to get into full fledged war by IA to brass. One of the factors for not crossing yellow sea. Notice how we had to purcfhase bofors shells in black market (yes I know we had black listed Bofors principals). We still continue to import AK-47 rounds.


2) After 2001 parliament attack it took us months to get IA to get in position.

3) After 7 years we are still in the same situation with no strategic quick response strike formations.

We are more of soft power than any regional power.


4) Our own ex generals tells us that kashmir is the root cause of terror, no wonder the British ka bachha minister gave the PM earfull.


This is war with out end even if India hands over J&K on platter to TSP.

We will lose this war with out end if we continue to take blows and not respond , mind you the action is happening in our fence.

All PAD Agni, mutual deterence 50 to 150 Kt variable yield is no good unless the other guy is rational to understand the consequences.

Oh by the way the excuse that if we cross LOC it will go nuclear,
if we act now TSP will move the center of gravity to India, etc is all BS. It is not the job India to make the job of GIs easy by taking kicks on the back and bleed.

Sorry very blutnly put.

[enqyoob]

Well, rangudu, if I were the dilli billi running this, I might have asked the Americans point-blank: When my strike aircraft go over POK and Muridke to take out the terrorist camps and offices, what can we expect from the US CBGs in terms of keeping the PAF and their air defense system down?

We would like a CAP by a couple of squadrons of F-18s over PAF bases and air defense sites. Are you with us or against us?

OK, if the Americans say NO, then tell them that at least India expects them to shut up and not leak to the PAF the arrival of Indian planes.

This would have conveyed all the urgency needed, and the Pakis would have been panicked.
Of course, if the GOI can't be bothered even to this level, there is not much hope.

[John Snow]

We should very well expect them to give away the position of our a/c real time. They have more to gain by making TSP win.

[Rangudu]

Jumrao

The ability to respond is there. The political will not.

[John Snow]

Gen Paddy writing on the wall is all about to come true.

2002

While Lt Gen Kapil Vij’s summary transfer has generated a heated discussion and an official denial that India acted under the US pressure, New Delhi has been somewhat less ambiguously told to de-escalate its military build-up against Pakistan if it wants Washington to signal its approval of the long-pending Israeli Phalcon aircraft sales to India.

New Delhi, January 23: Defence Minister George Fernandes on Wednesday said the Commander of the Army's 2nd strike corps Lt Gen. Kapil Vij had been "transferred and not removed".

"Though I am not well aware of circumstances, but as far as my information goes he has been transferred and not removed," said Fernandes when asked about shifting of Vij under controversial circumstances on his return from the US after a six-day visit.

However, the Defence Minister refused to elaborate on the issue.

[VikramS]

hello, what is with this incessant quoting and re-quoting of long posts? why do intelligent people have problems in following simple moderator requests?

The problem is that others do not know which post you are responding too, since there are many people writing on the same thread, and there are several sub-threads active at the same time. e.g. you edited my post where I included a portion of post from Yusuf about how transparency in India exposes problem and now my post appears out of context, especially since the discussion between Yusuf and RayC have been along multiple dimensions. So go easy on this mod power.

[CRamS]

Jumrao:

It may not be a turkey shoot, but I am sure IA can deliver a few hefty blows. Otherwise, how do you explain TSP's panic in the background when IA chief said all options open.

I think the key is this. TSP will surely respond if India attacks, no doubt about it. But our attack must be so fierce, catching TSP off guard, on some precise high-value targets, that even if TSP responds, it won't be equal equal. Because the moment TSP percieves it as equal equal, India has lost the battle on every front: military/political/diplomatic. Thats the challenge and I wonder if tomorrow a truly nationalist PM asks the armed forces chiefs for such a plan, they have one ready.

[Abhi_G]

Indian evidence gives ‘good clues’: Pakistan

http://www.expressindia.com/latest-news ... an/411979/

Pakistan finally found merit in the evidence about Mumbai terror attacks given to it by India, saying that it contained "leads and good clues" and promised to file criminal cases if prima facie evidence is found.

Complete mockery of the victims suffering from Islamic terror and the GoI under the blessings of the west.

[enqyoob]

I wonder if this comes across to whoever it is relevant without the need to quote entire posts ad nauseum.
Sheesh! Could u guys please quit whining? Thx.

[AdityaM]

So now the foreign sec of britain also started to dictate the PM of India

All he did was to put off the Indians and he probably will not get another tour to India. Good riddance.

For all his aggressiveness, he was taken on a private tour of indias poverty by its yuvraaj.
Be prepared for many more such tours, UPA & kangress is addicted to jhapads.

another thing:
while Pak says it will try the suspects as per law, and whatever the end result of the trial may be in terms of punishment, what stops the Pak president from extending a Presidential pardon?

they said they will hold a trial, but no one talked of not giving presidential pardons

[jrjrao]

Heh heh. The UK Telegraph and its readers are no more fond of Miliband than we are (read the comments):

The bravery of David Miliband

[enqyoob]

I liked this one the best:

this a/h gives what would be the typical "peace in our time" politicians grovelling answers, god help britain with this communist upstart in power, labour has ruined enough, give us an election

[enqyoob]

Now this: Dalai Lama calls for violent response to terrorism. GOI sends flowers to Lashkar-e-Toiba

OK, 1 out of 2 ain't bad.