I posted thsi on Feb., 4th, 09, in the Mumbai Terrorist attack timeline thread....
ramana wrote:If we do a timeline from when Kasab was trained onwards what we find is that TSP had readied a terrorist squad to attack India from the sea some time back say 1-2years. Looking at which areas are accessible Mumbai was the prime target for such an attack. There were sporadic warnings from US and own intel agencies but nothing clear cut. At same time GOI was doing its own thing by ensuring SIM cards are sold to dubious characters to get a chance to eavesdrop on terror networks. Sort of low budget electronic surveillance. Somewhere in mid September there were definite warnings to India. Maybe India thought they could trap them by appearing careless. Somehow the TSP wised up decided not carry through the attack at that time. Might even have shelved it. Then there were a series of events that gave them hope that if they created a mess the US would intervene- the troop situation in Afghanistan, the Pakibanization of FATA, the US pressure to do more, the Obama interview on kashmir, the Reidel and Ahmed Rashid article on Kashmir etc. So they went ahead with the Nov attack.
The MKN types got blind sided when they got new warnings for they thought it was another case of boy crying wolf. So he did nothing except warn the Navy to chase some ghost fishing boats. He should have activated the defences in depth incase the NAvy didnt get them. The ATS was busy trying to fix Hindu terrorism charges under Pawar's guy R.R. Patil. The guests at Taj complained of the security being too much for their revelry for Thanksgiving. And all that led to increasing the casualties of the terrorists attack. The CST attack in which Kasab took part was one of the unfortunate turn of events but gave the chance for Mumbai police to redeem their honor.
The TSP aims were: unify their sorry divided nation due to external threat, move troops to the Indian border and let the jihadis a free rein in the Pakiban areas, get more aid from US as pro quid quo for bringing back the troops to the West, force US to pressure India on Kashmir, show India down and boost morale of their sorry jihadis and forces.
One reason why the US keeps telling of how it warned GOI is its does not want to lose the goodwill among Indian people despite its support to TSP and stopping Indian govt from retaliation. A hidden motive could be they want a clash between the two and claim flash point and try to carve a role for themselves.
Indian govt was caught off guard and is on quick march to retrieve its credibility but by its own actions has limited its options. A lot of gaps built up in the last few years have shown up- intel, police, counter terrorist actions, equipment, Army readiness, Cabinet crisis response, MMS heart attack requiring bypass eventually etc.
In all the hungama a hazy picture is emerging of what is possible and is for a future post.