Bharat Rakshak

The purpose of this thread is to provide links and discuss current weather forecasts for all of India. It is NOT a discussion for global climate change.
At present, there is very little information on weather conditions and the mainstream television/print media provide little to none coverage of current climate conditions. Although India doesn't suffer from immediate weather changes like much of North America, weather is still important in planning our lives since we travel within India and plan our agricultural activities. I would like this thread to be open for:
1.) Providing links to weather related web sites and blogs for India.
2.) Government and private activities related to current weather forecasts. Note that current forecasts means from 8 hours to 10 day forecasts.
3.) Discussions from BRF members to post observations in their local area which includes road/highway conditions in their area due to flooding, drought, snow/ice and extreme temperatures.

I'll start with posting a link from weather underground which now provides satellite observations of India overlayed on Google maps showing cities and highways:
http://www.weatherunderground.com Simply enter your city and country and look at current conditions and then click on the satellite observation.

Surprised this isn't listed here

India Meteorological Department
Satellite Images

The trouble with weather forecasting is that it's right too often for us to ignore it and wrong too often for us to rely on it.

But go ahead and lets see how this thread develops.

http://www.imdpune.gov.in/pressrelease_apr2009.pdf

Yeah, whatever.. Dilli is enjoying a very pleasant 42C . While Bangalore has max of 28 C onree and a min of 21 or below. What to do saar ? .

The Dilli Billis are all hot and bothered . They are tough guys of course, so who am I to commiserate with them. Schandenfreude of course.. I'm luvin it!

rename this thread to vina's dilli whines thread. He is the only BRFite to be totally obsessed with the climatic environs of dillites.

Merlin,

Sorry I didn't post the IMD link. Bad oversight. One thing about their mission - it appears they also do earthquake detection. A bit odd if you ask me when you try to mix meteorology and seismology. One would think this would fall under the domain of the Geological Survey of India.

I don't know how many of you are familiar with weather underground. But if you have your own rain gauge or anemometer, you can upload your data to the site. These sensors are relatively cheap. A college could set up a nice one for $500 USD and could report back through weather underground and IMD and there would be a lot of data available.

Heavy floods are feared in Mumbai this monsoon. The high tide levels are expected to the highest in about a century this June & July, hence the chances of floods are very high.

derkonig wrote:Heavy floods are feared in Mumbai this monsoon. The high tide levels are expected to the highest in about a century this June & July, hence the chances of floods are very high.

It is anticipated by the Met Office that July 23-26 will be the worst hit in over 60 years.Nat Geo did a documentary not long ago highlighting the causes of the floods and the failure to sanction the funds for the upgrade which would have been complete by 2002.Add tot his Bandra Kurla complex and the airport.

It can easily be assumed that over 100cm rainfall is expected to drown South Mumbai and Kalina reclamation areas.

RayC wrote:The trouble with weather forecasting is that it's right too often for us to ignore it and wrong too often for us to rely on it.

Why it it so ? When the rest of the world thinks otherwise is there any peculiar Indian statistics that says so in support of the above.

Weather forecasting is used routinely by air operations. There is a whole field which began as a result of it. It used to be called the AVN model referring to aviation. Now with radars and other near real time ground truths routinely being assimilated even localized forecasts are being made in the developed world. Not in India yet, from what I gather watching the media broadcasts.

The weather forecasts here in DMA is typically laughable.

A couple of weeks ago, we had heavy rains for a week. EVERYTHING with that rain, except there was thunder/lightning, said it is monsoon. The "kaalaavastha" people insisted that it is still "summer rain". Then after a few days, the explained that the "monsoon came early, and there will be rain for next 48 hours".

And the rain promptly stopped and sun came out. It stayed dry for the promised 48 hours.

Well, what else you can do with a barometer and anemometer? One needs long range radar info to get accurate prediction.

The computing power and modeling of weather is not an easy task.
BEL used to make Cyclone tracking Radars in late 69/70s. We need whole bunch of PARAM power to improve.

By the way has mansoon arrived in Kerala, so that there may be hope of relief in Hyderabad in two weeks after that.

After googling Report dated June 17th 2008
LiveMint.com
****
Chinese firm to set up weather radars in India

New Delhi: A Chinese hi-tech firm will build and install 12 doppler weather radars, or DWRs, at important Indian ports and cities including the national capital and Mumbai.
Beijing Metstar Radar Co. Ltd, a venture of China National Huayun Technology Development Corp., a wholly-owned subsidiary of the China Meteorological Administration, and US-based Lockheed Martin Corp., outbid Bharat Electronics Ltd, which develops weather radars based on proprietary technology of the Indian Space Research Organisation, and Germany’s Selex Gematronik GmbH, for the contract to install the radars that was awarded by India Meteorological Department, or IMD, on 30 May.
Industry experts say this would make it one of the rare high technology imports from China into India.
“I am not sure it is the first, but definitely one of the first and certainly very important,” said T.S. Vishwanath, who heads the trade policy division of the Confederation of Indian Industry—an industry lobby. “Bilateral trade is dominated by raw materials, and this could pave the way for good quality, affordable technology trade between the two countries.”
Changing climate: The Chinese firm will install 12 doppler weather radars.Bharat Electronics and Selex Gematronik have previously commissioned weather radars in the country.
However, there are some apprehensions within IMD itself.
“While our technical evaluation company is certainly competent, I hope they have not compromised on quality for cost,” says an IMD scientist not connected with the technical evaluation and selection of firms to supply the radars and who didn’t want to be named.
Without commenting specifically on the deal, IMD chief Ajit Tyagi says IMD will only procure equipment “as per its specific requirements and will never compromise on quality”.
Former IMD chief R.C. Bhatia says these DWRs are of high quality. “The Metstar radar is an upgraded version of the US’ NEXRAD weather radar systems, which is being actively used by the (US) government for their own forecasting systems,” he pointed out.
Metstar radars have been built based on the weather radar technology acquired from Lockheed Martin. Metstar has supplied similar radars for China, Romania and Korea.
“Lockheed Martin is involved and supports international sales of doppler radars, but (it) no longer internationally bids for contracts that involve only the supply of doppler weather radars, having transferred the LM-derived technology to Metstar in the mid-1990s,” Lockheed Martin says in an emailed statement. “Rather than bid directly, Lockheed Martin currently routes all requests like that to Metstar.”
The DWRs, to be set up at Mumbai, Delhi, Agartala, Mohanbari, Paradip, Bhopal, Nagpur, Patna, Lucknow, Karaikal, Patiala and Goa, will be supplied, installed and commissioned by Metstar for about $17.8 million, or about Rs76 crore.
Doppler weather radars have an edge over other weather radar systems because they can measure the speed of a storm or cyclone. The radars the government uses right now provide information only on the range of a storm whereas a DWR system provides data to accurately estimate an approaching storm’s centre and intensity, fixing its position and predicting its path.
“Now it’s DWRs everywhere. Nobody really uses ordinary weather radars,” Tyagi says.
This contract is part of a Rs900 crore modernization plan by IMD, a major part of which involves upgrading weather forecasting equipment. The agency plans to install a network of 55 DWRs, of which 12 will be commissioned by Metstar in the first phase.
Along with DWRs, IMD is also buying 550 automatic weather stations and 1,350 automatic rain gauge, or ARG, stations, as part of a plan to move into numerical weather prediction, which is globally used to give precise weather forecasts, as opposed to statistical techniques still being used in India for monsoon forecasts.

****
Meanwhile from ISRO web Site this dated May 1st 2008 ( Mera Bharat Mahan


May 01, 2008


A Memorandum of Understanding was signed today (May 1, 2008) by the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) with Snow and Avalanche Study Establishment (SASE) of the Defense Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) for the installation of two Doppler Weather Radars in the Himalayan region for climate studies.

ISRO has indigenously developed the technology of Doppler Weather Radar and transferred it to Bharat Electronics Ltd for the production of these radars. Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) operates in S band and is capable of monitoring clouds, precipitation systems and winds over large areas of more than 400 km from the radar location. DWR has the unique capability to continuously track and predict fast evolving weather systems such as thunderstorms, cyclones and cloudbursts. The first such indigenous radar is operating at Sriharikota since April 2004. The Mark II version of DWR which is under production is a state of the art system with performance comparable with radars available elsewhere. DWR development called for high-end electronics, advanced data processing techniques and software for product generation.

As per the MOU signed today, two Doppler Weather Radars with advanced polarimetric capability will be established in the Himalayan region to monitor critical climate parameters including snowfall and help in improved weather forecasts for high altitude operations. The data from DWRs will be useful for the study of monsoon dynamics, avalanche prediction, detection of clear air turbulence and tracking of cloud burst, hailstorm and other severe weather events. In view of the global warming scenario, it is of paramount importance to monitor the highly sensitive and climatically unique Himalayan terrain.

ISRO is also installing two DWRs in the North East region of India to support Disaster Management by aiding the early warning of floods, landslides and other severe weather events. The Indian Meteorological Department is already procuring two such radars from BEL for installation at Kochi and Bhuj for cyclone monitoring.


So there we are build, buy or delay ( mansoons )

Bade wrote:

RayC wrote:The trouble with weather forecasting is that it's right too often for us to ignore it and wrong too often for us to rely on it.

Why it it so ? When the rest of the world thinks otherwise is there any peculiar Indian statistics that says so in support of the above.

Probably the Indian (or Asian) monsoons are more difficult to predict than weather in North America/Europe and the monsoon is the most important feature of the climate in India. So if the predictions chance of coming true is 50:50 then the above statement holds good.

Americans have a unique technology which they will never share with any one (even Canadians)

Mort Walker wrote:Merlin,

Sorry I didn't post the IMD link. Bad oversight. One thing about their mission - it appears they also do earthquake detection. A bit odd if you ask me when you try to mix meteorology and seismology. One would think this would fall under the domain of the Geological Survey of India.

I don't know how many of you are familiar with weather underground. But if you have your own rain gauge or anemometer, you can upload your data to the site. These sensors are relatively cheap. A college could set up a nice one for $500 USD and could report back through weather underground and IMD and there would be a lot of data available.

Yes, that's very odd. I would have thought there was no correlation between meteorology and seismology. Perhaps they diversified sometime back seeing that diversification was the craze in the 80s.

One more link for the monsoons, something I have been following for four years now - Monsoon On Line. Its pretty comprehensive.

There is nothing great about the weather here than the weather in America. They have equipment to get data in very long ranges. We don't. That's all.

A good 600km range DWR at the southern tip can very reliably detect the advancing monsoon front, and accurately predict the landfall. It can also precisely define which is 'monsoon' and which is 'summer rain'. It can also help aviation by accurately defining weather windows, so that planes can be accurately scheduled.

We were once delayed at a US airport, in order to arrive at the destination in a specific window of opportunity. The little MD-80 was tossed around a lot, and did a terrible cross wind landing, but we did not have to loiter around in the air.

Chinese firm to set up weather radars in India

Current Map of S-Band Cyclone Detection Radars (includes indigenous radar at Sriharikota)

India Meteorological Department adopted radar technology for meteorological applications in the early 50s.The first indigenously designed and manufactured x-band storm detection radar was installed in 1970 at New Delhi.

An integrated upper air sounding system comprising X - Band weather cum wind finding Multimet radar and radiosonde system (401 mhz ), designed and produced indigenously, was introduced in 1975 in IMD at Bangalore.

The first S-Band cyclone detection radar became operational at Visakhapatnam in 1970.The first indigenous S-Band cyclone detection radar was commissioned in Mumbai in 1980.

IMD now has a network of 10 S-Band cyclone detection radars covering the Indian Coast line. Six numbers in the East Coast and four numbers in West Coast.

IMD’s network of X - Band radars consists of 29 radars comprising of 12 Storm Detection Radars (SDRs) and 17 Dual Purpose (Weather cum wind finding) radar.

IMD plans to replace all the existing old generation radars with state-of-art S-Band DWRs in a phased manner.

IMD has already installed 4 nos. S-Band imported DWRs at Chennai(2002), Kolkata(2003), Machilipatnam (2004) & Visakhapatnam(2006) replacing the old generation S-Band cyclone detection radars at these places. These radars are made by a German firm Gematronik GmbH

IMD has also installed one indigenous Doppler Weather Radar at Sriharikota (AP) in 2004, it was developed under MoU with ISRO Bangalore.

India Meteorological Department has a plan to install 2 more indigenous S-Band DWRs at Bhuj and Kochi to be developed by M/s BEL, Bangalore.

Under First Phase of modernisation, IMD also has a plan to replace old S–Band Cyclone detection Radar by S–Band Doppler Weather Radar at 12 locations namely Mumbai, Paradip, Nagpur, Patna, Lucknow, Patiala, Karaikal, Bhopal, Agartala, Mohanbari, Delhi and Goa. These locations will have the Beijing Metstar Radar Co. Ltd DWRs

It is the job of IMD scientists to develop it as they use the radar, based on specific local conditions. After all, it was a joint project. For example, the vertical variation in the precipitation intensity has to be statistically modelled and incorporated into an algorithm. But they have shown least interest in doing such things..... The situation recalls the non-utilisation of the pixel data from the CCD cameras aboard INSAT because there was some problem with the proprietary imported software that the IMD was using and it could not be corrected because of lack of source-code that the supplier did not part with while ISRO could use the same data with its in-house software (Frontline, October 7, 2005).

It seems that while India possesses the technology to develop, manufacture, & potentially export DWR, the primary user-the IMD-chose a foreign alternative. This article explains why and in short it seems that the IMD wishes to take a passive role in product development, much like the IA does when the DRDO develops weapon systems.

Link: http://www.hinduonnet.com/fline/fl2508/ ... 803600.htm

The situation recalls the non-utilisation of the pixel data from the CCD cameras aboard INSAT because there was some problem with the proprietary imported software that the IMD was using and it could not be corrected because of lack of source-code that the supplier did not part with while ISRO could use the same data with its in-house software (Frontline, October 7, 2005).

This is true. I know from first hand experience. IMD and ISRO would not share information on the positional accuracy of their INSAT meteorological data on the implicit pretext of national security of course. Nice cover up for their inadequacy. But some yindoos did figure it out in house. But this issue has put ISRO reputation at a low and their INSAT data is hardly used in data assimilation for weather forecasting by the rest of the world community.

But this issue has put ISRO reputation at a low and their INSAT data is hardly used in data assimilation for weather forecasting by the rest of the world community.

Seems like NOAA and METEOSAT satellites are most commonly used in our neighborhood even after launching of INSAT & KALPANA satellites.

Satellite cloud imagery monitoring facilities among members of WMO/ESCAP panel on tropical cyclones
1) Bangladesh uses data from NOAA and MTSAT satellites respectively.
2) India currently uses data from KALPANA-1, INSAT 3a, INSAT 3d.
3) Maldives uses imagery from INSAT/KALPANA and METEOSAT satellites through internet.
4) Pakistan uses US polar-orbiting satellites (NOAA Series) amid other geo-stationary satellites in the region.
5) Sri Lanka uses products from the NOAA series are received through the ground station at NMC Colombo. METEOSAT-5/IODC imageries are also accessed through Internet hourly, regularly.
6) Oman uses EUMETSAT Geostationary Satellite and NOAA Polar Orbiting Satellites.
7) Thailand uses imagery from NOAA and MTSAT satellites.
8 ) Myanmar uses satellite imageries from GMS and US polar-orbiting satellites (NOAA series of the USA) and less regularly from METEOR-series of the USSR.

Link: http://www.wmo.ch/pages/prog/www/tcp/op ... plans.html

Its turning out to be very hot june here in chennai. It touched 40+ yesterday

http://www.tribuneindia.com/2009/200906 ... hal.htm#14

Rohtang Pass experiences snow
Our Correspondent

Kullu, June 17
The 13050 foot high Rohtang Pass experienced another spell of snow while about 30 cm of snowfall was reported during the past 24 hours.

Monsoon likely revive by 24 th JUNE: Weathermen
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Indi ... 693444.cms

Late monsoon won't hit economy much: Montek
http://www.indianexpress.com/news/late- ... ek/480304/
It will hit us very hard

RayC saar, IMHO the thing you are talking about is a thing of the past.
for the last 5-6 years at least the met dept has been pretty accurate.

no longer can you confidently go out without an umbrella when the met dept promises "heavy shower and thunder storms" !

of course weather prediction is and will remain a tricky business for the forseeable future. it's the nature of the phenomena.

NE witnesses deficit rains, mercury soars
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Indi ... 691725.cms

Book Review: Monsoon Prediction by R. R. Kelkar
http://www.ias.ac.in/currsci/jun252009/1641.pdf

Monsoon sets over Kutch, Saurashtra and South Gujarat regions
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Mons ... 701914.cms

Ok something to chew on in HINDU

‘Below normal’ rainfall forecast

NEW DELHI: The Union government on Wednesday announced a downward revision in its estimates for the rainfall in the southwest monsoon season. The rainfall will be “below normal,” at 93 per cent of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of plus or minus 4 per cent. In other words, it could be between 89 and 97 per cent of the LPA.

(A forecast in April predicted a “near-normal” rainfall, at 96 per cent of the LPA, with a model error of plus or minus 5 per cent: in other words, a rainfall of between 91 and 101 per cent of the LPA. The LPA is 89 cm. It is an average of the monsoon rainfall in the 50-year period from 1941 to 1990.)

Minister of State for Science and Technology and Earth Sciences Prithviraj Chavan said the revision was made following estimates that there was a high probability (about 60 per cent) for El Nino conditions appearing during the remaining three months of the season. In April, there did not seem to be such a possibility.

The revision came in the backdrop of huge deficiency in the rainfall so far. As per the data for the period from June 1 to 22, there was a departure of minus 52 per cent from the LPA for the period.

Central India, comprising Gujarat, Maharashtra, Goa, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Orissa, had been the worst hit so far, with a departure of minus 75 per cent from its LPA for the period. The northeast, comprising West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura and Sikkim, followed it with a departure of minus 53 per cent from its LPA.

In the northwest, comprising Delhi, Haryana, Punjab, Chandigarh, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir, the departure was minus 41 per cent, and in the South Peninsula, comprising Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Lakshadweep and Andaman and Nicobar, it was minus 23 per cent. However, the position in central India was expected to dramatically improve in the coming months.

Director-General of India Meteorological Department Ajit Tyagi said the monsoon was likely to set over Delhi by July first week. In other words, there would be a delay of a week to 10 days. The normal date is June 29.

Monsoon finally arrives in Delhi
http://www.ddinews.gov.in/National/Nati ... +rains.htm

Southwest monsoon advances to Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan
http://www.ddinews.gov.in/National/Nati ... +rains.htm

Monsoon covers the entire country
http://www.pib.nic.in/release/release.asp?relid=49734

^^Punjab and Haryana seem to have been the hardest hit by the lack of monsoons this year - crop yields are projected to be 50% lesser than last year.

Guys these satellite pics show lots of clouds in the areas but the rainfall reported is far away from the amount of clouds. What does this translate to? Does this mean that these satellite pics are not a very good indicator and need to be shelved? Anyways i am distressed about the absence of rains

Cell phone towers to predict cyclones:

http://www.fastcompany.com/blog/ariel-s ... ne-katrina

It's exciting to see so many uses of cell phone towers: communication (primary) + disaster prevention + wide area radar coverage (as is being put forth in defence forums).

Yes, just hope they dont loose the main reason why they were put there for.

The prospects do seem exciting. If such technology can come through, then government won't have to do any additional expenditure on infrastructure (as was done in case of tsunami). They will just have to put some additional hardware and software to monitor the data obtained from towers.