Vajpayee was PM in May 2003Sanku wrote:Wonder why? What was special about May 2003?
This perhaps?He was sworn in as the prime minister on May 22, 2004,
Indira Gandhi was PM when the Civilian EUMA was signed
Vajpayee was PM in May 2003Sanku wrote:Wonder why? What was special about May 2003?
This perhaps?He was sworn in as the prime minister on May 22, 2004,
Yes I know I did put in my post that MMS came to power in 2004. So it would be Vajpayee, I guess I didnt draft the post correctly and hit post by mistake what I meant was why did GoI become friendlier w.r.t. inspections in 2003, even when Vajpayee was in power and we were still getting to terms with the Strobe-Jaswant Singh talks.
This perhaps?Vajpayee was PM in May 2003He was sworn in as the prime minister on May 22, 2004,
Indira Gandhi was PM when the Civilian EUMA was signed
vera_k wrote:End user pact brings India into non-proliferation mainstream
So it's more about non-proliferation than about any arms deals?
Right but that would be the right time to sign then wouldnt it. 30 years later.NRao wrote:And, IF the three phase stuff works, it is in India's interest for such agreements to work. India would expect to export her own techs at that time - some 30 years or so down the road - without the recipient proliferating.
For India to sign with the country India is supplying the techs to - yes.Sanku wrote:Right but that would be the right time to sign then wouldnt it. 30 years later.NRao wrote:And, IF the three phase stuff works, it is in India's interest for such agreements to work. India would expect to export her own techs at that time - some 30 years or so down the road - without the recipient proliferating.
Patil, going by your quote, H. Clinton hasn't mis-spoken. What Bob Einhorn conveys is in agreement with Clinton remarks and Daryl Kimball is wrong:ppatil wrote: Here is Bob Einhorn's view on the subject.
Hate to be wet blanket in all these threads, but it is most likely that Clinton misspoke. This article is from 2005.A semblance of that principle should be preserved by excluding from permissible cooperation with India equipment, materials, and technology related to enrichment, reprocessing, and other sensitive fuel-cycle facilities. This would permit India to acquire uranium, enriched fuel, and nuclear reactors, but would retain the ban on transfers of those items most closely related to a nuclear weapons program.
Should the US Sell Nuclear Technology to India? – Part I
I will go back to my now
Second, other reports suggests the same thing.“As I understand [the] question, it was whether we oppose the transfer of processing and enrichment technology, well, clearly we do not,” she said. “We have just completed a civil nuclear deal with India. So if it is done within the appropriate channels and carefully safeguarded, as it is in the case of India, then that is appropriate.”
2.India may not be hit by G-8 raising bar on nuke tech transferAt an off-the-record interaction with Indian analysts here on Tuesday, a senior U.S. official initially said “India won’t be affected” by the draft NSG rules. But he added he was on “thin ground” and that Bob Einhorn, Ms. Clinton’s special adviser on non-proliferation, was better placed to clarify U.S. policy.
Pls note the mentioning of word Iran and come back see what Clinton has said:Second, the real target of the G-8, or NSG, is not India, which is not a proliferation threat, but Iran, which is. If ENR technology was to be denied to non-NPT countries, it would leave Iran within the tent and keep India out. However much the world may dislike the Indian nuclear deal, that is really not anyone's intention.
and furtherSo, if it is done within the appropriate channels and carefully safeguarded, as it is in the case of India, then that is appropriate. But we are very much opposed to unauthorized and inappropriate transfers that unfortunately can take place by certain countries or non-state actors doing so. So, there is a right way to do it and there is a very wrong way. We are seeking the advice and suggestions from India about how we can prevent the unauthorized and dangerous transfer of nuclear technology and material which poses a threat to the entire world.
Going by all these , one can see, this is all about EUV and non-proliferation than denial of ENR to India.Describing it as a "landmark event", the US has said the end-user monitoring (EUM) arrangement agreed during Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's visit has brought India into the nuclear non-proliferation mainstream
The point is no matter how you look at it from the pessimistic to optimistic view , in both view one thing common which is "doubt" , there is this oh this did not work at all to , even if this worked this one test is not good enough to make it into a credible TN weapon.Gerard wrote:Was the person named? Did he/she play any part in the tests? Is Karnad still advocating multi-megaton warheads?quoting ex BARC official
Interesting word.a credible TN weapon
He seems to find RC and AK's claim credible. No doubts here.This is why the pusher/tamper is sometimes called the “third-stage” of a
thermonuclear weapon. For example, assuming as in Fig.4 that the yield is 150kt
if the pusher/tamper is made of U 238 , the yield will be 300kt if the pusher/tamper is
made of U 235 . On the other hand, if the pusher/tamper is made of a lead or bismuth,
the yield will be significantly lower, on the order of 50kt. This is most probably
what the Indian scientists have done in 1998 in order to be able to detonate the
device at a relatively low depth into the ground, and to minimize the background
signals which may overload the measuring instrumentation.
Finally, if plutonium is used for the pusher/tamper a yield somewhat higher
than with enriched uranium is obtained. This is why using plutonium for the “third
stage” is providing the highest possible yield for a given design. This option has
been implemented in some of the French thermonuclear weapons, and was an
important justification for the French fast-breeder program, as it could be for the
Indian plutonium reprocessing/recycling program
Ideally one should have full yield and full range proof tests (or as near to them as possible) prior to induction by the military. But the ideal is not always possible.it will not be deployed at that range during wartime.
Gerard,You are assuming that a full yield proof test is necessary to have confidence in the device.
It may be desirable, but is it necessary? Let me play devil's advocate for a bit...
If, as claimed, the material used for the secondary pusher/tamper - Pb/depleted U/LEU/HEU/Pu - determines the total yield of the weapon - e.g. from <50kt to >300kt - and the secondary works, then going to full yield requires just substitution of the material. There is no need to test this to full yield.
Your question is quite valid. In addition to what Mr. Gerard replied let me put it this way.Prem Kumar wrote:IMO, the issue is not one of whether the TN weapon was a boom or bust. I think we will never know the full truth and people have to live with their opinions one way or the other.
The issue is one of the yield. The highest yield we tested was 45KT. I dont want to question the reasons given for the yield to be downgraded - because its speculative territory again. The point is - if we have never tested a 150 or a 200 KT weapon, how do we know we will get that yield? That's my biggest gripe with the voluntary moratorium - a premature abortion of testing. To use a crude phrase: "If r@pe (sanctions) was unavoidable, we might as well have laid back and enjoyed it (keep testing)"
Its like the situation with the Agni series - there is no point in speculating or showing graphs that demonstrate that A3 will have a 12K range. If we havent tested it at that range, then it will not be deployed at that range during wartime.
That's what makes the deterrent not as strong as it should be.
Who claimed that A3 got 12k range. WWhich official proclaimed as that so. It is one thing to ride on fantasies and take that one to the extent of saying we havent tested that to 12k and we dont have deterent is height of ...what to say.Its like the situation with the Agni series - there is no point in speculating or showing graphs that demonstrate that A3 will have a 12K range. If we havent tested it at that range, then it will not be deployed at that range during wartime.
That's what makes the deterrent not as strong as it should be.
For credibility one can talk to the leader of Shakti series (RC, AK and Kalam worked under him if one cares for Operation Shakti campaign team and its hierarchy ) and all your doubts will vanish, just like mine.Gerard wrote:Interesting word.a credible TN weapon
Credible.
How do you decide on the credibility of a statement? By looking at the achievements of the person making it?
We have statements from RC and AK et al. They claim to have achieved a certain yield and stated they can scale up the design to 200kt.
Now both have actually designed nuclear weapons. Reportedly AK even assembled the first one with his own hands. When someone who has actual weapon design knowledge makes a statement about yields etc, I (as someone who knows nothing about building nuclear bombs) tend to find them more credible than contrary statements from people who have never built a bomb, know nothing about building bombs and have never even seen a bomb in real life.
Indian pusher/tamper was neither made of a lead, bismuth or U238. It was a fully loaded baby. One can appreciate the degree of under-performance from that, because one will realize that fissile 3rd stage will generate much yield even if second stage generated no yield. The people who need to be convinced are not RC/AK but their team leader, DRDO and Services (As customers BARC serves them and needs to convince and deliver to them; + Customer is always right, and having toiled around the design team, they dug the wells and know how deep it was; they know their stuff enough, they are not naive to understand what is the expected yield versus what was seen).Other people seem to share my biases. Take Andre Gsponer
http://eprintweb.org/S/authors/All/gs/Gsponer
In his ITER article he writes
This is why the pusher/tamper is sometimes called the “third-stage” of a thermonuclear weapon. For example, assuming as in Fig.4 that the yield is 150kt if the pusher/tamper is made of U 238 , the yield will be 300kt if the pusher/tamper is made of U 235 . On the other hand, if the pusher/tamper is made of a lead or bismuth, the yield will be significantly lower, on the order of 50kt. This is most probably what the Indian scientists have done in 1998 in order to be able to detonate the device at a relatively low depth into the ground, and to minimize the background signals which may overload the measuring instrumentation.
Finally, if plutonium is used for the pusher/tamper a yield somewhat higher than with enriched uranium is obtained. This is why using plutonium for the “third stage” is providing the highest possible yield for a given design. This option has been implemented in some of the French thermonuclear weapons, and was an important justification for the French fast-breeder program, as it could be for the Indian plutonium reprocessing/recycling program
He seems to find RC and AK's claim credible. No doubts here.
Now I don't find RC and AK credible because Gsponer says so. I take RC and AK on their own merit. What Gsponer writes does reinforce my perceptions however. After all, RC and AK (and others) built the first Indian bombs.
And I find it interesting how easy it is for some to doubt the credibility of Indian scientists who have spent their entire working lives building the bomb for India, to not only doubt, but to call them traitor, sellout, liar etc; To call for their arrest and imprisonment yet this European physicist doesn't doubt.
Correct.Austin wrote:If our TN fizzled out by most estimates how can we get that 90 - 100 kt figure ?Gerard wrote: The yield of the Sagarika warhead is not known. It could very well be a 90-100kt TN one.
K Santhanam?Arun_S wrote:For credibility one can talk to the leader of Shakti series (RC, AK and Kalam worked under him if one cares for Operation Shakti campaign team and its hierarchy ) and all your doubts will vanish, just like mine.
Indo-US nuclear treaty: A good dealI think India is much better off after May 1998. First, Pakistan's weapons have been forced out of the closet. Our option, which had been on oxygen since 1974 (if not earlier), came out of the icu. Our status is no longer 'ambiguous' and the people of India feel relieved that national security interests are protected. Secondly, the asymmetry with respect to China stands largely removed and it is worth emphasising that deterrence is not just about numbers alone. In an evolutionary way, when India's longer-range missiles—through flight tests, manufacture and induction—reach maturity in the coming years, China's policy towards India may well go through some accommodating revisions. Also, China's nuclear and missile support to Pakistan could decline in the years ahead.
Yet he says on the TV (from outlook article above)Arun_S wrote:One comment on that BR Missile article by Shri Santhanam was "but America has capped Indian ability to realize and mount that small TN payload on its missiles with this India-US civil nuclear...
And a decade before he saidDr Santhanam replied with an emphatic ‘no’ when he was asked whether India was compromising on its national security....Dr Santhanam said he thought it was going to be a win-win deal for India.
From the linkNRao wrote:I have not found a recent quote from Bob Einhorn - one AFTER he became a sidekick to Clinton.
and we haveEinhorn insists that the American willingness to cooperate on nuclear matters with a state not party to the NPT, based on its commitment to being a responsible nuclear power, signals a “radical departure” from global norms, weakening the entire system of nonproliferation. Yet, he says, a few measures may limit the collateral damage done by the bilateral deal. If India, for example, agrees to freeze production of fissile materials and maintain its tough stance vis-à-vis Iran, some of the deal’s harm may be undone.
2. On the tough stance vis-a-vis Iran, what he means that whatever been transfered from US to here should be safe whithin the confines of India and not reach Iran not only that including Indian help. H. Clinton statements reflect the same.Sharing a vision of a world free of nuclear weapons, both sides agreed to move ahead in the Conference on Disarmament towards a non-discriminatory, internationally and effectively verifiable FMCT.
So, if it is done within the appropriate channels and carefully safeguarded, as it is in the case of India, then that is appropriate. But we are very much opposed to unauthorized and inappropriate transfers that unfortunately can take place by certain countries or non-state actors doing so. So, there is a right way to do it and there is a very wrong way. We are seeking the advice and suggestions from India about how we can prevent the unauthorized and dangerous transfer of nuclear technology and material which poses a threat to the entire world.
Indeed. On the other hand, would not these be more readily simulated, instead of requiring explosive testing? Could these not be tested by irradiating models (via KALI etc) ?Sanatanan wrote:If there could indeed be constructional differences arising from differences in their physical or mechanical or chemical or nuclear properties or manufacturing methods adopted - for example forging Vs casting - then there may be a case for an argument that the replacement design should be proven by test.
Without taking size in the yes or no yield debate, the obsession with yield is based on a simple factor.negi wrote:I don't know what is the obsession with yields , specially when we have already detonated a thermo nuclear device with a 45kt yield. Given the devastation caused by the Hiroshima and Nagasaki sized bombs and the population density of major cities of our potential adversaries I think a 45kt bomb is a pretty decent deterrent .
Highly avoidable to post anti IA propaganda without proof, in general given that Arjun saga stinks for reason other that IAs role best avoidable.Kanson wrote: One said "Customer" interested in the foreign maal went to the extent of sabotaging Arjun MBT test trials in favour of that. Can the same phrase "Customer is King" is valid here ?
Saar, minor correction only... from wiki-shastraGerard wrote:Likewise the designers of the "Fat Man" Hiroshima bomb were confident of their design. There was no test prior to combat use.
Trinity was the first test of technology for an atomic weapon. It was conducted by the United States on July 16, 1945, at a location 35 miles (56 km) southeast of Socorro, New Mexico on the White Sands Proving Ground, headquartered near Alamogordo. Trinity was a test of an implosion-design plutonium bomb. Using the same conceptual design, the Fat Man device was dropped on Nagasaki, Japan, on August 9.
My mistake... the Little Boy Hiroshima bombRahul Shukla wrote:Saar, minor correction only... from wiki-shastra
Utter Nonsense.vera_k wrote:The Politicsparty reporter says that the EUVA/EUM allows the US to inspect military nuclear facilities.
Sorry Sanku, but its not propoganda..sanku wrote:Highly avoidable to post anti IA propaganda without proof, in general given that Arjun saga stinks for reason other that IAs role best avoidable.
Gerard wrote:Muddy policy hurdle faces India-U.S. nuclear deal
What crap. They did not know this before?The India-U.S. civilian nuclear deal, already hit by procedural delays, may face a new hurdle: the Japanese partners of top U.S. nuclear firms may need to convince Tokyo and get approval to do business in India.
Analysts say this could mean India and Japan may need to sign a nuclear deal first, adding to the multiple policy and regulation hurdles that have already delayed commercial implementation of the India-U.S. pact.