Deterrence

[Pratyush]

Frankly I don't understand the debate about the yield of the Indian thermonuclear device.

If it was 40 kt or 200 kt. How does it make any difference.

Not many military installations on the planet can continue to function once a 40kt device has been delivered on it will near pin point accuracy.

Not many cities are going to sing na na na. Your device is a failure, as it was only 40 kt and not 200 kt you were claiming it to be. Such a device will still kill millions of people.

Besides if someone is crazy enough to put the theory of a dud Indian thermonuclear device to the test. Then we have bigger problems on our hand then the yield of our divice.

[williams]

Frankly I don't understand the debate about the yield of the Indian thermonuclear device.

If it was 40 kt or 200 kt. How does it make any difference.

Not many military installations on the planet can continue to function once a 40kt device has been delivered on it will near pin point accuracy.

Not many cities are going to sing na na na. Your device is a failure, as it was only 40 kt and not 200 kt you were claiming it to be. Such a device will still kill millions of people.

Besides if someone is crazy enough to put the theory of a dud Indian thermonuclear device to the test. Then we have bigger problems on our hand then the yield of our divice.

It does not matter from a military perspective, but it matters in terms of the literal racism exhibited by some including our own folks when they belittle our scientific capability and the intelligence of our scientific community. Boosted fission is basic science where you use fission to trigger an additional chain reaction represented by the basic chemical equation 2H + 3H → 4He + n. So if someone can do it and create a chain reaction that releases 40kt, they should be stupid enough to do it for 200kt. It is just the question of x kg of HEU and Plutonium to produce y Kt with sufficient engineering support. This is basic physics and 60s technology. Why would we doubt our scientists saying that they have the Diwali maals upto 200kt. That is the point.

[SSridhar]

Did Pakistan Just Overhaul Its Nuclear Doctrine? - Sitara Noor, a research fellow at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.

Excerpts

Speaking at a seminar hosted by the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad on May 24, retired Lt. Gen. Khalid Kidwai provided new details of Pakistan’s otherwise ambiguous nuclear doctrine. What Kidwai says matters because he is currently an advisor to the country’s National Command Authority (NCA)

Kidwai expanded the scope of this doctrine by explaining what he called vertical and horizontal dimensions. In his words, full-spectrum deterrence “comprises horizontally of a robust tri-services inventory of a variety of nuclear weapons … [that] is held on land with the Army Strategic Force Command, the ASFC; at sea with the Naval Strategic Force Command, the NSFC; and in the air with the Air Force Strategic Command, the AFSC.”

Most striking was his statement that “vertically the spectrum encapsulates adequate range coverage from 0 meters to 2,750 kilometers [about 1,700 miles] as well as nuclear weapons destructive yields at three tiers—strategic, operational, and tactical.”

Reducing the minimum range to 0 meters is unprecedented and, if implemented, points to a major shift in Islamabad’s nuclear policy thinking.

Talk of zero-range weapons suggests that Pakistan is either going to develop artillery shells as the United States, Soviet Union, and United Kingdom did during the Cold War—raising questions of whether it is going to be an M28/M29 Davy Crockett-style recoilless rifle system, the smallest weapon in the U.S. nuclear arsenal, developed during the 1950s as a front-line weapon with yields as low as a fraction of a kiloton—or it could be a hint that Pakistan could possibly lay nuclear land mines across the India-Pakistan border to deter Indian advances. Observers, especially in India, are left wondering whether this statement is based on some existing scientific research and design testing and necessary doctrinal thought process. Kidwai’s statement does not provide any such details, and in the spirit of ambiguity that Pakistan seems to have benefited from, there is unlikely to be a follow-up soon to clear the air.

Prior to Kidwai’s statement, the officially announced lowest range in Pakistan’s nuclear inventory was the Nasr, or Hatf-9 ballistic missile, with a range of 60 kilometers (about 37 miles). The solid-fueled tactical ballistic missile was projected to be a response to India’s Cold Start doctrine. When it first test-fired the Nasr missile in 2011, Pakistan received huge flak from both Indian and Western scholars for its potential security risks and command and control challenges. The purported risks of employing Nasr ranged from the lowering of nuclear threshold to the possibility of an accidental or unauthorized launch if command and control of this short-range missile was delegated to local commanders in the battlefield.

The upper limit of 2,750 kilometers refers to the land-based surface-to-surface medium-range ballistic missile Shaheen-3, which was first test-fired in 2015 with the stated aim to reach the Indian islands of Andaman and Nicobar, thereby denying New Delhi the strategic bases for a potential second-strike capability. The upper limit was carefully restricted to 2,750 kilometers to signal that Pakistan’s nuclear missile program is only India-specific and does not pose a threat to any other country in the region and beyond.

It is possible Kidwai sees that lowering the range down to zero will fill this newly perceived gap and deter future surgical strikes inside Pakistan.

Going down to zero range might also be a reaction to India’s vanishing “no first use” doctrine; indeed, some current and former Indian officials have made statements to suggest that India no longer fully adheres to this pledge.

It may also be an attempt to add additional options to Pakistan’s arsenal of responses, making it difficult or impossible for India to take out Pakistan’s entire nuclear force in a decapitating first strike and also making New Delhi question the effectiveness of its ballistic missile defenses in the face of short-range weapons.

Regardless of the logic, Pakistan’s lowering the nuclear range to zero is problematic for both regional stability and India’s perception that it can fight a limited conventional war against a nuclear-armed adversary.

If Pakistan officially adopts a zero-range policy, such a drastic change in its nuclear posture is likely to receive massive international criticism due to the risks it poses to regional stability. Lowering weapon ranges coupled with India’s ongoing signs that it is departing from a more cautious no-first-use posture is also a stark reminder that instead of engaging in risk reduction measures and enhancing strategic stability, both countries are going further down the path of high-risk behavior.

[Tanaji]

Isnt this more of khayali pulao that Pakistanis cook from time to time after partaking fentanyl derivatives (as Afghan maal is too expensive for them now).

Pak doesnt have a sea based deterrent : they neither have boomers nor missiles with nuclear tipped warheads that are ship launched nor aircraft carriers.

As far as 0 metres go, when did they miniaturise Chinese design to fit into shell type form factor? Unlikely China will provide them with that as well…

This is on the same lines as geo-economics crap they keep peddling where they imagine Pakistan to be the centre of world trade.

[SSridhar]

Exactly. They have not miniaturized, they have no means to carry on such a work, they cannot therefore make such landmines or bullets. Besides, China has not been known to possess nuclear landmines. They probably had some when they had issues with FSU after the Ussuri clash. It is doubtful that they possess anything like that today.

My suspicion is that this Pakistani lady, Sitara Noor, is trying to create some fear and ambiguity.

[ramana]

Zero range is suicide nuke bomber.

What kind of name Sitara Noor?
Twinkle, twinkle?
Kidwai must be 80 years old and quite senile.

His earlier redlines were crossed with Balakot strike.

[wig]

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/natio ... -86-521112

In a year, global inventory of N-warheads rises by 86

excerpts

As on January 2023, the world has 9,576 weapons in military stockpiles for potential use. That is 86 more than the number in January 2022. Of this stockpile, an estimated 3,844 warheads were ‘deployed’ with missiles and aircraft.

growth in weapons in our neighbourhood

9 nuclear armed states — US, Russia, United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel
9,576 total nuclear warheads in military stockpiles in world

410 with China, rising from 350 last year

170 with Pakistan, up from 165 last year

164 with India, growing from 160 last year
These are the findings of Sweden-based think tank Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) which today released its annual assessment of ‘state of armaments, disarmament and international security’.

china

“The estimate of the size of China’s nuclear arsenal increased from 350 warheads in January 2022 to 410 in January 2023 and it is expected to keep growing,” said the SIPRI. Depending on how it decides to structure its forces, China could potentially have at least as many intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) as either the USA or Russia by the turn of the decade.

India

India was estimated to have a growing stockpile of about 164 nuclear weapons, up from 160 the previous year. “These weapons were assigned to a maturing nuclear triad of aircraft, land-based missiles and nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs),” the SIPRI said.

pakistn

According to SIPRI estimates, Pakistan possessed approximately 170 nuclear warheads as of January 2023 — up from 165 from the previous year. These weapons were assigned to Pakistan’s nascent triad of aircraft, ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles, and sea-launched cruise missiles.

[ramana]

SIPRI still maintains the charade of Pak> India.

Good psy-ops.

[ArjunPandit]

do we know if they have more of these aadha kilo and pav pav ke nuclear bums or do they have large no. of Megaton ones

[Tanaji]

^^As per SIPRI, Pakistan always has 1-3 more of every type of nuclear weapon than India.

SIPRI also knows down to one significant digit the number of weapons India has “164” . Not 163 or 165… 164 specifically. How you ask? Djinn magic obviously that whispers intimate details of Indian reprocessing output from its reactors and erotic nothings about Indian nuclear bomb design of each type….

[NRao]

As a palceholder

[ramana]

do we know if they have more of these aadha kilo and pav pav ke nuclear bums or do they have large no. of Megaton ones

SIPRI data is all bogus.

[Cyrano]

We need not assume all Paki N bums are fission bums. They could just be dirty bums that just spread radioactive material all over from KM 0 onwards. Their tryyad is definitely based on that. While its extremely difficult to extend range and impossible to hide, there is no such problem to decrease the range to zero, ie its own territory or close to its borders.

I think the "yield" Pakistan is after is not measured in kilotons but in terms of nuisance, reactions from the "international community" and huge pressure they expect will be put on India to not react to their FU with its N reposte, not to speak of how they assume our dhoti clad Indian psyche and political will works. A contaminated zone will of course deter ground invasion and capture of territory thus securing their territorial integrity and earn admiration from the ummah.

It could actually work. I mean, just how bad will it look if India responded to their dirty bums with mushroom clouds? And will we want to take over territory and manage the consequences of contamination years and decades? Paki's calculus is that India will finally not do it.

This is the vishkanya strategy (only the kanya is actually a run-dee) of deterrence. I'm not trying to trivialise the matter. May be the "India’s vanishing “no first use” doctrine" is to deal with such scenarios?

[disha]

All baki pums are dirty bums. They do not have the triggers to implode the CHIC4 uranium core precisely. What will happen is that it will squirt out U-235 when imploded and that will spread radiation around. With some 1-2 kiloton yield at most or even lesser.

So baki pums will not even create a giant mushroom cloud. A localized cloud spreading radiation around 25 kms radius.

And bakis do not even have a missile tech that will deliver it beyond the gates of Lawhore. So the only option is using JDAMs. That is, Jihadi Deployed Atomic Munitions. The JDAM route was even explored and novelists were writing fictional stories on how JDAM can be deployed. For example, I remember reading a story in some local publication in local language on how a rich prince from baki state honey traps daughter of a high ranking official as a cover for his yacht which will be eventually moored in Bombay and the baki pum will go poof.

So when 26/11 happened, on that day, my biggest worry was, were all Jihadis accounted for? Did they leave something in any of the safe houses?

Hindsight being 20/20 or even 20/10, I do believe that demonetization took out several such houses and post-balakot when Abhi was captured and bakis were jumping around like langurs, the bakis must have been shown that they are nook nood.

So in effect all baki dirty bums are contained within the four walls of lawhore.

Cyrano'ji, if bakis do a self mutilation and let go of a dirty bum on their own land, than that area is good for uranium mining. So I would not worry about any pressure. I will just sell rights to uranium mining to bhestern mnc's.

[S_Madhukar]

But if Baki maal is not so good then how is one of their fathers - the keepers of the 2 holy places trusting them to provide them with gola against Eyeran… have never understood that equation when they already had Cheeni mijjile what is so great about Baki maal instead of Cheeni maal ?

[Tanaji]

For an Indian planner, it is irrelevant whether the Paki nuke is dirty or works as expected. Retaliation would be the same whether Delhi goes in a mushroom cloud or is an irradiated wasteland.

In fact, it is irrelevant whether they even have a nuke or not. So long as the Indian planner believes there is a non zero probability that the Pakis have a dirty or otherwise nuke, India must assume the worst and have all the wherewithal required for disproportionate retaliation.

[disha]

^Tanaji' Precisely and thanks for putting it concisely from the Indian perspective.

But if Baki maal is not so good then how is one of their fathers - the keepers of the 2 holy places trusting them to provide them with gola against Eyeran… have never understood that equation when they already had Cheeni mijjile what is so great about Baki maal instead of Cheeni maal ?

Deterrence is always in mind. Having said that, there are some assumptions in your question. First assumption, the keepers of the 2 holy places trusting them to provide them gola against eyeran. Post balakot, it has been rumoured that Saudi Barbaria reclaimed their golas. And further Saudi Barbaria has now to deal with Turkiyes trying to eye the maccah and medhina. Its too bad that Turkiyes' economy is in pakistan, so it has to do kumbaya with Barbaria.

You have to note that Cheeni giving CHIC4 to Barbaria would be a direct challenge to US influence in Barbaria, and the best option was to use the LaWhoris to transmit the disease. Just like, botox babe gave the CHIC4 to N.Korea in return of NoDongs.

2nd assumption is that the Cheeni-Barbarian Gola is for eyeran. It might be even meant for Turkiyes. The day eyeran gets the bum, it will be interesting to see Turkiye-Eyeranian clash and Turkiye-Barbarian clash and Barbarian-Eyeranian clash. Prior to that, the world needs to get off the middle-east oil economy. But that is a discussion for a different thread.

[ramana]

But if Baki maal is not so good then how is one of their fathers - the keepers of the 2 holy places trusting them to provide them with gola against Eyeran… have never understood that equation when they already had Cheeni mijjile what is so great about Baki maal instead of Cheeni maal ?

After Balakot there were two flights from Barbaria and back to take back their share of golas.
Most likely in storage with US guards.
No more strategic depth from Yindoos.

Its not Baki maal.

[Cyrano]

For an Indian planner, it is irrelevant whether the Paki nuke is dirty or works as expected. Retaliation would be the same whether Delhi goes in a mushroom cloud or is an irradiated wasteland.

In fact, it is irrelevant whether they even have a nuke or not. So long as the Indian planner believes there is a non zero probability that the Pakis have a dirty or otherwise nuke, India must assume the worst and have all the wherewithal required for disproportionate retaliation.

Absolutely. Pakis and their handlers are twisting their knickers because they sense that India has already junked NFU whether the GOI says it publicly or not. Tellis etc try to diss our yields, number of warheads, missile ranges etc every now and then hoping to induce some dhoti shiver by making India(ns) doubt our N deterrent capability.

[titash]

But if Baki maal is not so good then how is one of their fathers - the keepers of the 2 holy places trusting them to provide them with gola against Eyeran… have never understood that equation when they already had Cheeni mijjile what is so great about Baki maal instead of Cheeni maal ?

After Balakot there were two flights from Barbaria and back to take back their share of golas.
Most likely in storage with US guards.
No more strategic depth from Yindoos.

Its not Baki maal.

I never really understood how AmirKhan allowed Barbarians to buy Cheeni mijjiles and Paki golas.

Assuming AmirKhan gave the go-ahead OR was fooled/ignored, then why get the Cheeni mijjiles inside Barbaria, but keep the golas in Pakiland? What's the rationale? The Barbarians didn't need "strategic depth" from Yindoos. Perhaps Yahudis objected.

Post-Feb 2019 did the Yahudis stop objecting? doubtful.

Post-Feb 2019 did AmirKhan stop objecting? doubtful.

So what changed?

=========================================================================================

This is the difference between "buying off the shelf" and "developing". The Barbarians don't really know if AmirKhan/Cheeni/Paki have supplied the authentic golas, and they never will, until its too late. In our case, Dr. R Chidambaram who developed the original physics package in 1974 & 1998, and his team are still around. Something for the IAF to mull over during Tejas vs. Rafale vs. Checkmate discussions over chai/pakodas

[disha]

^ Titash'ji, you mean cheeni golas and cheeni mijjiles. Cheeni gola went to Bakistan. Cheeni Mijjiles went to N. Korea. Botox Babe had a tryst with Dingbat N. Korean and their no-dongs in the privacy of a plane.

One. S. Barbaria is the other half father of Bakistan. As Bakistan implodes (not if, but when), Barbarians want to get their maal out earlier. And barbarians found that the no-dongs are just that. No-dongs. So they decided to get the real dongs from cheen.

US did not want a bakistan with golas imploding while their own troops were in Afghanistan. Imagine the brouhaha in US if bakistan produces another tere-bin-laden and does something dirty in Afghanistan. At US Consulate. Tauba-Tauba. So the golas had to go. Additionally, US gets a looky looky at the CHIC4 design and can estimate the effort required by N. Koreans.

The mijjiles Barbaria has from Cheen are capped at 290Km since they are not part of MTCR. Though that does not stop cheen and there is winky-winky everywhere, since US needed Cheen to keep the inflation down in US.

[ramana]

• I never really understood how AmirKhan allowed Barbarians to buy Cheeni mijjiles and Paki golas.
  
  Assuming AmirKhan gave the go-ahead OR was fooled/ignored, then why get the Cheeni mijjiles inside Barbaria, but keep the golas in Pakiland? What's the rationale? The Barbarians didn't need "strategic depth" from Yindoos. Perhaps Yahudis objected.
  
  Post-Feb 2019 did the Yahudis stop objecting? doubtful.
  
  Post-Feb 2019 did AmirKhan stop objecting? doubtful.
  
  So what changed?

In those days fear of Shia Iran winning over Sunni KSA was very high. The war of cities between Iran and Iraq saw increasing use of missiles.
Khan didn't want to supply missiles but looked away when KSA got Chinese missiles.
The AQK network saw KSA investment with golas as pro quid quo.
As long as golas were in Pak it was all hunky dory 'strategic depth', don't ask don't tell in line with Israel.

My view is post 2019 gola safety from India was not assured.
It's possible India might hit a few bunkers where golas are stored to do Israel a favor.
So about a week or so after Balakot KSA wanted their share back.*
And most likely are in highly secure storage sites with Khan guards.

* There were flight tracker reports of planes from KSa flying into closed Pak airspace and leaving a few days later.
So what does this mean?
Pak still has a few big golas but mostly their Nasr ping pongs are left.
George Fernandes already told what he thought of ping pong balls in 1998

[sanman]

Please try to lay out why and what India needs to test in the deterrence thread. If you haven't been reading that thread, please do.

In the event of a Russian N-test, India should be ready to quickly test its own assortment of deterrent weapons:

thermonuclear, tactical, neutron, etc.

We need to gather enough data to be able to reliably carry out numerical simulation and hydronuclear testing in the future.

Once we have that, we can perhaps even then announce our readiness to join the CTBT and thus shut the nuclear door behind us, in Pak's face.


Our justification is that such weapons are far more effective for deterrence (in spite of China's low-level salam-slicing), as well as being far more economical. After all, Pakistan has relied upon its nuclear deterrent (as well as terrorism) as a cheap & effective way of deterring India, since they can't afford to compete with us in other forms of military spending.

A Russian N-test would come at an opportune moment, where we currently enjoy far more leverage than we did in 1998.
We don't have to wait for China to test, or North Korea, etc -- a Russian N-test on its own would provide us with enough cover.

If America sanctions us as a Quad partner, it would amount to saying that only the US and not other Quad partners is free to enjoy fuller deterrence against China. I think that would be a bad message to send to the Quad, especially when US is going out of its way to transfer N-tech to Australian military (technically that would mean that White Quad members are allowed more N-capabilities while others are allowed less)

[titash]

• I never really understood how AmirKhan allowed Barbarians to buy Cheeni mijjiles and Paki golas.
  
  Assuming AmirKhan gave the go-ahead OR was fooled/ignored, then why get the Cheeni mijjiles inside Barbaria, but keep the golas in Pakiland? What's the rationale? The Barbarians didn't need "strategic depth" from Yindoos. Perhaps Yahudis objected.
  
  Post-Feb 2019 did the Yahudis stop objecting? doubtful.
  
  Post-Feb 2019 did AmirKhan stop objecting? doubtful.
  
  So what changed?

In those days fear of Shia Iran winning over Sunni KSA was very high. The war of cities between Iran and Iraq saw increasinf use of missiles.
Khan didnt want to supply missiles but looked away when KSA got Chinese missiles.
The AQK network saw KSA investment with golas as pro quid quo.
As long as golas were in Pak it was all hunky dory 'strategic deth' dont ask dont tell in line with Israel.

My view is post 2019 gola safety from India was not assured.
Its possible India might hit a few bunkers where golas are stored to do Israel a favor.
So about a week or so after Balakot KSA wanted their share back.*
And most likely are in high secure storage sites with Khan guards.

* There were flight tracker reports of planes from KSa flying into closed Pak airspace and leaving a few days later.
So what does this mean?
Pak sitll has a few big golas but mostly their Nasr ping pongs are left.
George Fernandes already told what he thought of ping pong balls in 1998

"Its possible India might hit a few bunkers where golas are stored to do Israel a favor"
...good point. I never thought of it that way. Plausible deniability also because these are Paki bunkers i.e. legit targets

Pak sitll has a few big golas but mostly their Nasr ping pongs are left
...but why is that? would Barbarian big golas not be a small fraction of Paki big golas? i.e. 5 of 100 etc.

[drnayar]

Please try to lay out why and what India needs to test in the deterrence thread. If you haven't been reading that thread, please do.

In the event of a Russian N-test, India should be ready to quickly test its own assortment of deterrent weapons:

thermonuclear, tactical, neutron, etc.

We need to gather enough data to be able to reliably carry out numerical simulation and hydronuclear testing in the future


Our justification is that such weapons are far more effective for deterrence (in spite of China's low-level salam-slicing), as well as being far more economical. After all, Pakistan has relied upon its nuclear deterrent (as well as terrorism) as a cheap & effective way of deterring India, since they can't afford to compete with us in other forms of military spending.

A Russian N-test would come at an opportune moment, where we currently enjoy far more leverage than we did in 1998.
We don't have to wait for China to test, or North Korea, etc -- a Russian N-test on its own would provide us with enough cover.

If America sanctions us as a Quad partner, it would amount to saying that only the US and not other Quad partners is free to enjoy fuller deterrence against China. I think that would be a bad message to send to the Quad, especially when US is going out of its way to transfer N-tech to Australian military (technically that would mean that White Quad members are allowed more N-capabilities while others are allowed less)

we need a "test series" for simulations and a full test for a fusion and a neutron weapon. Neutron warheads are best for tactical use.

or send some "kaveri engines" to Russia to test along side their nuke tests

[Tanaji]

I would suggest people read the Nuclear Issues Archive on the forum to engage in meaningful discussion as a lot of the issues have been discussed before…

We should also discuss opinions on Santhanam, PKI, RC…

[Amber G.]

Remembering: X-post:
Sad. Om Shanti. .
Deepest condolences on the demise of Professor MS Swaminathan, the legendary agricultural scientist & a key architect of the country’s ‘Green Revolution.



One anecdote: After the nuclear tests of 1998, He said something very telling to in an Indian Science conference "

You people in Defence, Atomic Energy and Space think of these as "strategic". But without food security, we couldn't have done the nuclear tests."

He was right.

[Cyrano]

With all due respect to Dr MS S, yes and no. But that's a debate for another day.

[Cyrano]

We haven't heard of this theory before:
“Nord Stream 1-Blast: It Was a Mini Nuke!”

https://2020news.de/en/nord-stream-1-bl ... mini-nuke/

If true, Russia has side stepped some very grave provocation.

While we debate "to test or not to test" the rest of the world seems to have no such "deterrents" !

[VKumar]

Were large numbers of dead fish reported, commensurate to such an event? Were the dead fish displaying radioactivity?

[Cyrano]

Good question. No one seems to have investigated on this angle, or really on any other angle. MSM excelled in burying this incident totally. In some years, nordstream's existence itself will be denied.

[drnayar]

SIPRI data ., MTCR missile range cap etc etc are for general consumption [for western countries read yoosaa. the real fireworks are way different.

[ramana]

With all due respect to Dr MS S, yes and no. But that's a debate for another day.

As JFK said every success has a thousand fathers!

[Amber G.]

As JFK said every success has a thousand fathers!

Of course!

Out more than 60 national and international awards prof Swaminathan got : eg Padma Vibhushan, Shanti Swarup Bhatnagar Award ,H K Firodia award, Lal Bahadur Shastri National Award,Indira Gandhi Prize, ..

Mendel Memorial Meda,Ramon Magsaysay Award, Albert Einstein World Science Award , World Food Prize , Tyler Prize , Environmental Achievement Four Freedoms Award , Planet and Humanity Medal of the International Geographical Union ..

Order of the Golden Heart of the Philippines, Order of Agricultural Merit of France, the Order of the Golden Ark of Netherlands, and the Royal Order of Sahametrei of Cambodia. China awarded him with the "Award for International Co-operation on Environment and Development" ...

A true controversial figure / sigh / .... never got any award from brf...


BTW: Comment about food security being strategic, which I 100% agree was also made by a Distinguished Professor in Electrical Engineering at an IIT who was was the director of Centre for Artificial Intelligence and Robotics (CAIR) - DRDO.

[ramana]

Food security is important but it's not greater than or equal to nuke deterrence.

[Amber G.]

Food security is important but it's not greater than or equal to nuke deterrence.

You are not alone with that opinion. There are a few "we will eat grass but make a bomb" types who give nuke deterrence much more importance. (Pakistan and North Korea come to my mind). OTOH something is to be said about countries like Bhutan for whom food security and health security is more strategic.

Personally I am glad that especially in Modi's government they have advisers like Prof. K. Vijay Raghavan. Please see my post in other dhaga: Modi's Principle adviser has this to say:

With M.S. Swaminathan’s passing, we have lost a great scientist. There are many scientists whose life spans roles as researchers, institution-builders, technocrats, policy-makers, and humanists. Swaminathan is unique in doing all of these roles superbly and with élan.]

Not that India does not have top nuclear scientists, and thinkers who understand deterrence, new secretary like Prof Abhay Krandikar as his adviser are covering telecommunication, digitization, fighting covid etc. India's satellites not only provide real time strategic data about nuclear deterrence to keep us safe, they *literarily* provide crop/food/soil data to attain food security -- all very strategic, IMO.

[Amber G.]

We haven't heard of this theory before:
“Nord Stream 1-Blast: It Was a Mini Nuke!”

https://2020news.de/en/nord-stream-1-bl ... mini-nuke/

If true, Russia has side stepped some very grave provocation.

While we debate "to test or not to test" the rest of the world seems to have no such "deterrents" !

Perhaps not going to convince the true believers but in the mainstream scientific world - outside of jihnn thermodynamic type physics:

The current scientific opinion is that the explosions that damaged the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines i 2 were caused by conventional explosives, not a mini nuke.

A report by the Swedish National Seismic Network found that the explosions were equivalent to a magnitude 2.3 earthquake and a magnitude 2.1 earthquake, respectively. The report also found that the explosions generated a pressure wave that was typical of an underwater explosion.

A report by the Danish Energy Agency found that the explosions caused extensive damage to the pipelines, including craters that were several meters deep and wide. The report also found that the explosions released a large amount of methane into the atmosphere.

Both reports concluded that the explosions were caused by conventional explosives, such as mines or torpedoes.

There is no scientific evidence to support the claim that the explosions were caused by a mini nuke. A mini nuke would have produced a much larger explosion and caused more widespread damage. Additionally, the radiation levels in the area have remained normal since the explosions. (This is one of the easiest thing to monitor)

No, there were no significant radioactivity discovered after the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipeline explosions.

The Swedish Radiation Safety Authority conducted measurements in the area of the explosions and found that the radiation levels were normal. The Danish Energy Agency also conducted measurements and found no indication of increased radiation levels. (Again, this is easiest thing to monitor --- you don't have to take their word, anyone can measure this - any good lab can *easily* detect these kind of radiation -- you don't have to be nuclear expert -- just any student/prof with basic knowledge of nuclear reactions can advise you what and how to measurer /sigh/ )

Nuclear weapons produce large amounts of radiation, so if a nuclear weapon had been used, there would have been a significant increase in radiation levels in the area.

[Amber G.]

Funny, how even dead fish give rise to silly conspiracy theories and blaming MSM being part of the nefarious design. ..

Were large numbers of dead fish reported, commensurate to such an event? Were the dead fish displaying radioactivity?

Good question. No one seems to have investigated on this angle, or really on any other angle. MSM excelled in burying this incident totally. In some years, nordstream's existence itself will be denied.

For crying out loud, all one needs is a geiger counter (which sells under $25 in Walmart)! ... Of course, one can borrow a better quality (still costs about $100 or so) from any ordinary nuclear physics lab too!

No need to wonder about conspiracy theory of MSM... you can easily find out if there is increase in radiation .. (apart from K-40 and C-14 which always exist in a dead or live fish).. A item like scintillation counter or a gamma spectrometer can give you more details about the type of nuclear explosion but a simple Geiger counter is okay for this purpose.

Once you have a hand on a Geiger counter,( be sure to read the instruction manual carefully before using it . The instruction manual will explain how to use the Geiger counter safely and effectively...and it comes in many languages ) .

Here are some tips::

Turn on the Geiger counter and allow it to warm up for a few minutes before using it.

Take a background reading before measuring the radioactivity of any sample. A background reading is a reading from the Geiger counter when it is not near any radioactive material.
Place the dead fish one wants to test near the Geiger counter.
Record the reading on the Geiger counter.
Compare the reading from the Geiger counter to the background reading.
If the reading from the Geiger counter is significantly higher than the background reading, then the sample is radioactive.

...
(If there is higher radioactivity - use a gamma ray spectrometer -- fairly easy to see the tell-tale sign from items like Cs-137, I-137, Sr-90 --, one would expect to find in the dead fish,. These radioisotopes are produced by the fission of uranium and plutonium, which are the main fissile materials used in nuclear weapons.)..

But we have discussed all this in *many* pages of BRF archives ... look there.

[Cyrano]

Amber G,
While accusing others of bias, you don't seem to read posts carefully.

I wrote IF true, and thats a big IF. Instead of debunking the fellow who wrote that article, you go off about ginger counters etc.

The fellow says a fusion type mini nuke. Before you start lecturing, we all know what it takes to trigger one. How much radioactivity would that leave behind? No part of the Swedish agencies reports were made public. SO we HAVE to take what Swedish agencies are reporting using their seismic sensors and $25 or $100 Geiger counters, and take their word as gospel. Of course, Russia whose pipelines were destroyed was excluded from the investigation.

It doesn't matter HOW the NS was destroyed beyond a point. WHO dun it is what matters now. The MSM that wrote scores of pages on Bucha and kidnapped children was silent on such a huge ecological and energy security disaster, begs the question WHY ?

I'd love to see how these NATO countries and their MSMs will react if India did another round of N tests, to prove its mini-nuke designs. Hope we'll have you batting for Bharat even then.

[Amber G.]

Amber G,
While accusing others of bias, you don't seem to read posts carefully.

I wrote IF true, and thats a big IF. Instead of debunking the fellow who wrote that article, you go off about ginger counters etc.

The fellow says a fusion type mini nuke. Before you start lecturing, we all know what it takes to trigger one. How much radioactivity would that leave behind? No part of the Swedish agencies reports were made public. SO we HAVE to take what Swedish agencies are reporting using their seismic sensors and $25 or $100 Geiger counters, and take their word as gospel. Of course, Russia whose pipelines were destroyed was excluded from the investigation.

I

Cyrano,
Accusing me of whatever you are accusing of instead of actually reading my post is beneath you.

I read your post carefully before commenting it in a most sensible way. "

IF 2 + 2 = 5 is true "

is nonsense even if one puts a "IF" before. Point is one ought not to spew scientific nonsense. As Asimov put it " a cult of ignorance... nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge" ought not to be normalized in BRF.

I have zero interest in knowing exactly which 'Swedish reports' were not 'made public' .. and no one is suggesting that their nefarious scheme was done by using "$25 or $100 Geiger counter only"... What I was saying was: If they used mini-nukes, radiation could not have been hidden.... Why would any one need to "DEBUNK" such Lahori logic type trash?

Fellow says a fusion type mini nuke

As you say "we all know what it takes to trigger"... please do tell us. How much radio activity it will leave behind? ( Hint: Just some elementary nuclear physics will be enough to estimate if those Geiger counter would detect or not detect).

----
Seriously, Radioactivity and presence of Cs-137, I-137, Sr-90 type isotopes - even in *very* minute quantities is fairly easy to determine -- and one does not need sophisticated instruments ..

For perspective, after Fukushima, one can detect Cs-137 level in Fish caught in California..(and connect it with Fukushima )-- measurement of even the very low level of these isotopes is sort of routine. ..

For perspective - Los Alamos Trinity site even after 70 years, one can still easily measure the radiation left by these isotopes ..(about 10x time the background radiation)..

As said before - Hiding a nuclear explosion is not easy.